Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Final 2007/2008 College Football Ratings and Rankings - Top 250 by the SPRS System Using NAYPPA - net average yards per play advantage

UPDATE NOTICE: SPRS (Sport Pundit Rating System) Name Change to YPPSYS (tm) viz. YPP-SYS (tm)

We have discovered that confusion might be remotely possible between our SPRS college football prediction system and something called Thompson SPRS which we noted for the first time today (October 12, 2008) at The Prediction Tracker summaries but which we have been unable to find online. When we first named our SPRS system, there was no Google conflict, otherwise we would have chosen a different name.

In order to identify our system as a separate system, and since we have no reason to be bound to our original name if confusion of any kind is possible, we are changing the SPRS name today from SPRS System to YPPSYS (or YPP-SYS ), which means "Yards Per Play System", a change which we will implement as an update paragraph on the relevant older pages explaining our original SPRS. There is no online conflict for this name and we hereby trademark the names YPPSYS viz. YPP-SYS as acronyms used by us for our college football prediction system, a rating, ranking and prediction system which was previously called SPRS by us, based on net average yards per play advantage (NAYPPA).

We do this particularly since our system this year is beating nearly all the systems listed at The Prediction Tracker and we want no confusion.

Final College Football Rankings 2007/2008 by the SPRS System - Top 250 Teams

(all hand calculations - please let us know if you find an error)

1. Please see this SPRS link for an explanation of the new and unique SPRS System, which is based on the analysis of football teams' yards per play on offense and defense, schedule strength, and win/loss record - margin of victory is excluded - and yet this statistical system for ranking/rating football teams provides extremely useful results which compare to those of Massey Ratings (MRk) and Sagarin Ratings (SRk) - indeed, we use the strength of schedule ranking from Massey Ratings, but evaluate that rank differently, giving what we think are more accurate ranking results using our NAYPPA method)

2. LSU may have beaten Ohio State in the BCS Championship game on the scoreboard, but any view of the comparative bowl stats (see here) will indicate that LSU was lucky to win on turnovers, being dominated by the Buckeyes for a net advantage of 2 yards per play - the worst showing of any bowl game winner in 32 bowl games. It was hardly a dominant performance by a controversial BCS champion, whose path into that game is highly disputed. Hence, in spite of scoreboard results, Ohio State is still ranked minimally higher in our rankings as being the statistically better team. The Buckeyes lost 2 games this year to the teams ranked 4th and 23rd in our final rankings. The Tigers also lost 2 games this year, but to teams ranked 30th and 36th in our rankings.

West Virginia, our national champion, had the most dominant team in terms of statistics, and also lost only 2 games, to teams ranked 19th and 45th in our final rankings.

In terms of the stats, Ohio State should be the national champs and West Virginia a close second, but because of their loss to LSU, West Virginia moves to the top of the list due to their convincing win over Oklahoma.

3. Please note: for predicting point spreads for the coming 2008 college football season, 1 point of ranking difference equals about 9 points on the scoreboard. Here are examples of division cross-over games that show that this system works.
  • Carroll (Montana), who we rank 123rd, won the NAIA football championship. To see how good this team is, note that it beat Montana Western 42-0, who lost 52-13 to Eastern Washington, who we rank 96th, a team that then lost only 38-35 in the FCA (Division I-AA) playoffs to eventual repeat champion Appalachian State, who we rank 54th.
  • Carson-Newman (Division II) against Tennessee-Chattanooga (Division I-AA, FCS). Our system has Carson-Newman rated 1.4 points higher, a spread of 12.6 points (1.4 x 9, and Carson-Newman won 29-17 this season, an "upset" result which our rankings would have predicted. Using our SPRS System, Northern Colorado (FCS) would have a rating of -7.1. It played Chadron State (Division II) this year, rated at -4.4 by our system and lost 31-0. The ranking difference of 2.7 points would have predicted a Chadron win by about 25 points (2.7 x 9). Those game results support our Division II team rankings, even though they will seem high to those who do not follow Division II football.

  • The same reasoning applies to some of the high placements of Division III or NAIA teams. Wisconsin Eau Claire, which lost 27-0 to eventual Division III champion UW Whitewater, beat NAIA Black Hills State 14-3, a team which was ranked 20th in the NAIA final poll.
Key to Table Headings for Final SPRS Ranking:
Rank
= Our Final Rank, MRk = Massey Rank, SRk = Sagarin Rank
Div= Division Team = College Football Team
OFF = Average Yards Per Play Offense DEF = Average Yards Per Play Defense
NET = OFF minus DEF = NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage)
SCH = Schedule Rank by Massey Ratings
corr. = our correction of NAYPPA for schedule difficulty
W/L Win/Loss Record 2007/2008
FIN = Final SPRS System Rating corrected for Win/Loss Record (& weak defense)



RankMRkSRkDivTeamOFFDEFNETSCHcorr.W/LFIN
1
7
3
FBS
West Virginia
6.6
4.5
+2.1
42
+1.6
11-2
+1.2
2
3
11
FBS
Ohio State
5.8
3.6
+2.2
52
+1.4
11-2
+1.2
35
4
FBS
USC
5.8
4.1
+1.7
34
+1.3
11-2
+0.9
4
1
1
FBS
LSU
5.8
4.4
+1.4
5
+1.3
12-2
+0.9
5
3
2
FBS
Kansas
6.4
4.5
+1.9
59
+1.0
12-1
+0.8
6
10
5
FBS
Oklahoma
6.5
4.7
+1.838
+1.411-3+0.8
7
11
10
FBS
Florida
7.05.2+1.81+1.79-4+0.8
8
4
6
FBS
Missouri
6.3
5.1
+1.2
25
+0.9
12-2
+0.4
9
2
7
FBS
Georgia
5.6
4.8
+0.8
9
+0.7
11-2
+0.3
10
31
24
FBS
Texas Tech
6.8
4.8
+2.0
66
+1.0
9-4
+0.2
11
24
25
FBS
Arkansas6.24.8+1.428+1.18-5+0.1
12
14
23
FBS
Boston College
5.5
4.6
+0.9
39
+0.5
11-3
-0.1
13
18
35
FBS
Hawaii
7.1
4.7
+2.4
112
+0.1
12-1
-0.1
14
19
12
FBS
Texas
6.2
5.1
+1.1
49
+0.6
10-3
-0.1
1517
17
FBS
BYU
5.8
4.6
+1.2
65
+0.2
11-2
-0.2
16
16
8
FBS
Oregon
5.9
5.1
+0.8
8
+0.7
9-4
-0.2
17
22
22
FBS
Clemson
5.4
4.5
+0.9
37
+0.5
9-4
-0.3
18
6
9
FBS
Virginia Tech
4.9
4.3
+0.6
21
+0.3
11-3
-0.3
19
23
20
FBS
South Florida
5.4
4.7
+0.7
30
+0.4
9-4
-0.4
20
43
38
FBS
Rutgers
6.4
4.9
+1.5
60
+0.6
8-5
-0.4
21
37
29
FBS
California
6.0
5.0
+1.0
14
+0.8
7-6
-0.5
22
13
14
FBS
Arizona State
5.3
5.0
+0.3
18
+0.1
10-3
-0.6
23
25
30
FBS
Illinois
6.0
5.2
+0.8
41
+0.3
9-4
-0.6
24
30
26
FBS
Penn State
5.5
4.5
+1.0
56
+0.1
9-4
-0.7
25
15
16
FBS
Oregon State
4.9
4.5
+0.4
22
+0.1
9-4
-0.7
26
12
13
FBS
Auburn
4.8
4.5
+0.3
17
+0.1
9-4
-0.7
27
27
19
FBS
Cincinnati
6.0
5.0
+1.0
67
-0.1
10-3
-0.8
28
9
15
FBS
Tennessee
5.7
5.4
+0.3
6
+0.2
10-4
-0.8
29
21
21
FBS
Michigan
5.2
4.9
+0.3
33
-0.1
9-4
-0.9
30
20
18
FBS
Kentucky
5.7
5.3
+0.4
7
+0.3
8-5
-0.9
31
38
27
FBS
Oklahoma St.
6.5
5.9
+0.6
19
+0.4
7-6
-0.9
32
63
--
II
NW Missouri St.
6.5
4.2
+2.3
141
-0.6
12-2
-1.0
33
65
--
II
Grand Valley St.
7.1
4.7
+2.4
158
-0.8
12-1
-1.0
34
48
43
FBS
Arizona
5.4
4.9
+0.5
13
+0.3
5-7
-1.1
35
28
28
FBS
Wake Forest
4.7
4.6
+0.1
45
-0.4
9-4
-1.2
36
33
32
FBS
South Carolina
5.4
5.2
+0.2
4
+0.1
6-6
-1.2
37
32
41
FBS
Virginia
4.7
4.7
+0.0
48
-0.5
9-4
-1.3
38
36
40
FBS
Florida State
5.3
5.1
+0.2
20
+0.0
7-6
-1.3
39
41
33
FBS
UCLA
4.7
4.6
+0.1
2
+0.0
6-7
-1.4
40
40
34
FBS
Utah
5.1
4.7
+0.4
63
-0.6
9-4
-1.4
41
46
49
FBS
Air Force
5.8
5.1
+0.7
75
-0.5
9-4
-1.4
42
49
47
FBS
Michigan State
5.6
5.2
+0.4
46
-0.1
7-6
-1.4
43
85
71
FCS
North Dakota St.
7.1
4.9
+2.2
168
-1.2
10-1
-1.4
44
113
--
II
Delta State
6.1
3.2
+2.9
194
-1.0
10-2
-1.4
45
69
66
FBS
Pittsburgh
4.8
4.4
+0.4
50
-0.1
5-7
-1.5
46
44
46
FBS
UCF
5.7
5.0
+0.7
81
-0.6
10-4
-1.5
47
35
31
FBS
Alabama
5.1
5.0
+0.1
16
-0.2
7-6
-1.5
48
59
63
FBS
Washington St.
5.8
5.5
+0.3
29
+0.0
5-7
-1.5
49
66
65
FBS
Tulsa
6.8
5.9
+0.9
96
-0.6
10-4
-1.5
50
56
61
FBS
Nebraska
6.3
6.1
+0.2
10
+0.1
5-7
-1.5
51
92
77
FCS
UMass
6.0
4.2
+1.8
134
-0.9
10-3
-1.5
52
64
58
FBS
New Mexico
5.1
4.6
+0.5
86
-0.8
9-4
-1.6
53
29
36
FBS
Wisconsin
5.7
5.5
+0.2
54
-0.7
9-4
-1.6
54
45
44
FCS
Appalachian St.
6.7
5.2
+1.5
126
-1.1
13-2
-1.6
55
61
50
FBS
TCU
4.9
4.5
+0.4
73
-0.7
8-5
-1.7
56
60
48
FBS
Boise State
6.2
5.0
+1.2
107
-1.0
10-3
-1.7
57
51
59
FBS
Georgia Tech
5.5
5.0
+0.5
55
-0.4
7-6
-1.7
58
58
57
FBS
Purdue
5.6
5.1
+0.5
68
-0.6
8-5
-1.7
59
73
52
FBS
Kansas State
5.8
5.5
+0.3
44
-0.2
5-7
-1.7
60
42
--
II
Nebraska-Omaha
6.3
5.0
+1.3
133
-1.4
10-1
-1.7
61
50
53
FBS
Troy
5.6
5.3
+0.3
74
-0.9
8-4
-1.8
62
79
--
II
North Dakota
6.7
5.0
+1.7
148
-1.3
10-2
-1.8
63
26
37
FBS
Mississippi State
4.4
4.9
-0.5
32
-0.9
8-5
-1.9
64
34
39
FBS
Connecticut
5.0
5.1
-0.1
58
-1.0
9-4
-1.9
65
57
60
FBS
Fresno State
6.0
5.6
+0.4
88
-1.0
9-4
-1.9
66
54
45
FBS
Louisville
6.4
6.1
+0.3
53
-0.5
6-6
-1.9
67
55
62
FCS
Northern Iowa
6.3
5.0
+1.3
145
-1.6
12-1
-1.9
68
82
69
FBS
North Carolina
5.1
5.0
+0.1
40
-0.3
4-8
-2.0
69
53
54
FBS
Vanderbilt
4.7
5.0
-0.3
11
-0.5
5-7
-2.0
70
39
42
FBS
Texas A&M
5.4
5.8
-0.4
24
-0.7
7-6
-2.0
71
75
72
FBS
Indiana
5.6
5.2
+0.4
76
-0.8
7-6
-2.1
72
47
51
FBS
Maryland
5.0
5.3
-0.3
27
-0.6
6-7
-2.1
73
76
75
FBS
Miami of Florida
4.9
5.1
+0.2
47
-0.7
5-7
-2.2
74
68
78
FBS
Florida Atlantic
5.6
5.5
+0.1
80
-1.1
8-5
-2.2
75
100
81
FCS
James Madison
6.1
4.8
+1.3
132
-1.4
8-4
-2.2
76
88
80
FBS
Mississippi
5.4
5.6
-0.2
12
-0.4
3-9
-2.3
77
52
56
FBS
Colorado
5.1
5.6
-0.5
23
-0.8
6-7
-2.3
78
72
64
FBS
East Carolina
5.7
5.7
+0.0
78
-1.2
8-5
-2.3
79
71
--
II
Valdosta State
5.8
4.5
+1.3
169
-2.1
13-1
-2.3
80
81
79
FBS
Iowa
4.7
4.8
-0.1
72
-1.2
6-6
-2.4
81
62
68
FBS
North Carolina St.
4.7
5.2
-0.5
31
-0.9
5-7
-2.4
82
84
76
FCS
Southern Illinois
6.3
5.0
+1.3
162
-2.0
12-2
-2.5
83
80
73
FCS
Delaware
6.1
5.2
+0.9
122
-1.6
11-4
-2.5
84
77
67
FCS
Richmond
6.0
5.2
+0.8
127
-1.8
11-3
-2.5
85
127
--
II
South Dakota
6.9
5.7
+1.2
129
-1.4
6-5
-2.5
86
83
86
FBS
Northwestern
5.5
5.8
-0.3
71
-1.4
6-6
-2.6
86
67
55
FBS
Washington
5.6
6.1
-0.5
3
-0.6
4-9
-2.6
87
91
85
FBS
Wyoming
4.4
4.6
-0.2
69
-1.3
5-7
-2.7
88
95
84
FBS
Houston
6.3
5.5
+0.8
118
-1.6
8-5
-2.7
89
98
100
FCS
McNeese State
6.4
5.2
+1.2
180
-2.4
11-1
-2.7
90
96
--
II
W. Texas A&M
6.7
4.8
+1.9
217
-2.5
12-1
-2.7
91
87
82
FBS
Central Michigan
5.8
5.9
-0.1
89
-1.5
8-6
-2.8
92
141
--
II
Saginaw Valley
5.7
4.4
+1.3
173
-2.2
7-3
-2.8
93
131
--
II
Ashland
7.0
5.6
+1.4
183
-2.3
8-2
-2.8
94
154
--
NAIA
Sioux Falls
6.4
3.1
+3.3
291
-2.6
13-1
-2.8
95
74
74
FBS
Navy
6.1
6.1
+0.0
83
-1.7
8-5
-2.9
96
112
102
FBS
Nevada
6.4
5.8
+0.6
105
-1.5
6-7
-3.0
97
130
110
FCS
East. Washington
6.2
5.1
+1.1
156
-2.1
9-4
-3.0
98
101
--
II
North Alabama
5.8
4.8
+1.0
178
-2.6
10-2
-3.0
99
107
116
FBS
Miami of Ohio
5.1
5.2
-0.1
95
-1.6
6-7
-3.1
100
89
83
FBS
Ball State
5.9
6.2
-0.3
90
-1.7
7-6
-3.1
101
132
108
FCS
Hofstra
5.5
4.8
+0.7
147
-2.3
7-4
-3.1
102
97
87
FCS
Wofford
5.8
5.2
+0.6
138
-2.2
9-4
-3.1
103
114
97
FCS
Georgia Southern
6.2
5.6
+0.6
140
-2.2
7-4
-3.1
104
78
--
II
Cent. Washington
5.4
5.1
+0.3
135
-2.4
10-3
-3.1
105
93
95
FBS
Louisiana-Monroe
5.2
5.8
-0.6
85
-1.9
6-6
-3.2
106
179
151
FCS
South Carolina St.
5.8
4.2
+1.6
196
-2.4
7-4
-3.2
107
173
--
II
Abilene Christian
8.0
5.7
+2.3
238
-2.5
10-3
-3.2
108
144
118
FBS
West. Kentucky
5.8
4.9
+0.9
159
-2.3
7-5
-3.3
109
90
99
FBS
Bowling Green
5.7
5.7
+0.0
108
-2.2
8-5
-3.3
110
70
70
FBS
Stanford
4.4
5.8
-1.4
15
-1.6
4-8
-3.3
111
139
122
FCS
Western Illinois
5.5
4.8
+0.7
150
-2.3
6-5
-3.3
112
128
98
FCS
South Dakota St.
5.8
5.1
+0.7
152
-2.4
7-4
-3.3
113
158
--
II
Mankato MN
5.8
4.9
+0.9
146
-2.1
5-6
-3.3
114
203
--
III
Mount Union
7.5
2.8
+4.7
390
-3.1
14-1
-3.3
115
86
90
FBS
Notre Dame
3.5
4.8
-1.3
26
-1.6
3-9
-3.4
116
105
88
FBS
Southern Miss
5.5
5.3
+0.2
111
-2.1
7-6
-3.4
117
108
101
FBS
Middle Tennessee
5.1
5.7
-0.6
84
-1.9
5-7
-3.4
118
143
137
FBS
Louis. Lafayette
5.7
5.9
-0.2
82
-1.5
3-9
-3.4
119
109
91
FBS
Colorado State
5.4
5.9
-0.5
62
-1.5
3-9
-3.4
120
117
103
FCS
Citadel
5.9
5.3
+0.6
151
-2.5
7-4
-3.4
121
159
--
II
Carson-Newman
7.4
4.5
+2.9
304
-3.2
10-1
-3.4
122
147
--
II
Missouri Western
6.0
4.9
+1.1
191
-2.8
9-3
-3.4
123
145
--
II
Washburn
6.0
5.0
+1.0
172
-2.5
8-4
-3.4
124
102
--
NAIA
Carroll (Montana)
5.0
3.4
+1.6
248
-3.4
15-0
-3.4
125
125
119
FBS
Arkansas State
5.4
5.3
+0.1
99
-1.9
5-7
-3.5
126
116
112
FBS
San Jose State
5.0
5.6
-0.6
93
-2.0
5-7
-3.5
127
135
125
FBS
Marshall
5.9
6.2
-0.3
79
-1.5
3-9
-3.5
128
171
129
FCS
Liberty
6.8
4.9
+1.9
236
-2.9
8-3
-3.5
129
120
96
FCS
New Hampshire
6.1
5.7
+0.4
136
-2.4
7-5
-3.5
130
99
89
FBS
San Diego State
5.5
6.3
-0.8
61
-1.8
4-8
-3.6
131
129
105
FCS
Youngstown St.
5.4
5.0
+0.4
155
-2.7
7-4
-3.6
132
106
94
FCS
Elon
5.5
5.4
+0.1
137
-2.7
7-4
-3.6
133
226
--
II
Midwestern St.
7.5
4.8
+2.7
281
-3.0
8-3
-3.6
134
137
120
FBS
UNLV
5.0
5.6
-0.6
64
-1.6
2-10
-3.7
135
94
92
FBS
Iowa State
4.4
5.8
-1.4
36
-1.8
3-9
-3.7
136
104
104
FCS
Montana
5.6
4.9
+0.7
208
-3.5
11-1
-3.7
137
187
138
FCS
Cal Poly
6.9
5.6
+1.3
202
-2.8
7-4
-3.7
138
151
--
II
Pittsburg State
6.3
5.2
+1.1
201
-3.0
8-3
-3.7
139
124
114
FBS
Ohio
5.3
5.4
-0.1
116
-2.5
6-6
-3.8
140
126
107
FCS
Furman
5.6
5.8
-0.2
130
-2.8
6-5
-3.9
141
164
--
II
Central Missouri
5.3
4.7
+0.6
185
-3.1
7-4
-3-9
142
152
--
II
Tuskegee
7.5
4.0
+3.5
369
-3.9
12-0
-3.9
143
134
127
FBS
Akron
4.6
5.5
-0.9
92
-2.3
4-8
-4.0
144
155
140
FCS
William & Mary
5.6
5.6
+0.0
123
-2.5
4-7
-4.0
145
121
106
FBS
Western Michigan
5.2
5.6
-0.4
101
-2.5
5-7
-4.0
146
123
115
FBS
Buffalo
5.2
5.6
-0.4
102
-2.5
5-7
-4.0
147
110
117
FBS
Baylor
4.9
6.0
-1.1
57
-2.0
3-9
-4.0
148
122
126
FBS
Toledo
5.9
6.3
-0.4
98
-2.4
5-7
-4.0
149
161
132
FCS
Harvard
5.2
4.1
+1.1
235
-3.6
8-2
-4.0
150
115
111
FBS
Louisiana Tech
4.6
5.8
-1.2
91
-2.6
5-7
-4.1
151
185
133
FCS
Holy Cross
6.2
5.4
+0.8
199
-3.2
7-4
-4.1
152
166
--
II
Catawba
6.7
4.5
+2.2
292
-3.7
11-2
-4.1
153
153
144
FCS
Sam Houston St.
6.0
5.7
+0.3
176
-3.3
7-4
-4.2
154
133
109
FBS
Duke
4.3
5.8
-1.5
35
-1.9
1-11
-4.2
155
156
139
FBS
Kent State
5.1
5.5
-0.4
100
-2.4
3-9
-4.3
156
119
124
FBS
Memphis
5.7
6.1
-0.4
121
-2.9
7-6
-4.3
157
111
113
FBS
Syracuse
4.6
6.2
-1.6
43
-2.1
2-10
-4.3
158
196
--
II
Ferris State
5.9
5.2
+0.7
193
-3.2
6-5
-4.3
159
162
--
II
Hillsdale
6.2
5.6
+0.6
210
-3.6
8-3
-4.3
160
213
--
II
North. Michigan
5.7
6.3
+0.6
171
-2.9
4-6
-4.3
161
225
184
FCS
Weber State
5.7
5.0
+0.7
190
-3.1
5-6
-4.4
162
177
134
FCS
Dayton
5.9
4.1
+1.8
300
-4.2
11-1
-4.4
163
148
121
FCS
Yale
5.2
4.2
+1.0
258
-4.2
9-1
-4.4
164
197
165
FCS
Jackson State
5.4
4.3
+1.1
232
-3.6
8-4
-4.4
165
237
188
FCS
Gardner-Webb
5.3
4.6
+0.7
192
-3.2
5-6
-4.4
166
160
--
II
California (Pa.)
5.6
3.3
+2.3
324
-4.2
13-1
-4.4
167
118
--
II
Chadron State
6.1
4.7
+1.4
278
-4.2
12-1
-4.4
168
172
--
II
Duluth MN
4.9
5.1
-0.2
144
-3.1
4-6
-4.4
169
189
--
II
Michigan Tech
5.8
5.4
+0.4
181
-3.3
6-5
-4.4
170
157
141
FBS
Tulane
5.6
6.0
-0.4
115
-2.7
4-8
-4.5
171
150
130
FBS
UTEP
5.9
6.2
-0.3
119
-2.7
4-8
-4.5
172
146
123
FBS
Minnesota
5.5
6.8
-1.3
51
-2.1
1-11
-4.5
173
224
164
FCS
San Diego
7.5
5.4
+2.1
303
-4.0
9-2
-4.5
174
149
136
FCS
East. Kentucky
5.6
5.4
+0.2
197
-3.8
9-3
-4.5
175
186
--
II
Tarleton State
6.8
5.3
+1.5
273
-4.0
9-2
-4.5
176
142
135
FBS
Temple
4.6
5.3
-0.7
106
-2.9
4-8
-4.6
177
138
131
FBS
Army
4.2
5.7
-1.5
77
-2.7
3-9
-4.6
178
212
177
FCS
Montana State
5.1
4.9
+0.2
189
-3.6
6-5
-4.6
179
180
158
FCS
Northern Arizona
5.5
5.5
+0.0
175
-3.5
6-5
-4.6
180
198
--
II
Western Oregon
5.4
3.9
+1.6
289
-4.2
9-2
-4.6
181
211
--
II
Henderson State
5.4
3.9
+1.5
275
-4.0
7-3
-4.6
182
219
--
II
UIndy
5.8
5.0
+0.8
211
-3.5
6-5
-4.6
183
191
--
II
Northwood MI
6.2
6.1
+0.1
174
-3.4
5-5
-4.6
184
182
154
FCS
Grambling State
5.0
4.7
+0.3
206
-3.9
8-4
-4.7
185
178
162
FCS
Central Arkansas
6.0
6.1
-0.1
177
-3.5
6-5
-4.7
186
215
176
FCS
Alabama A&M
5.9
4.6
+1.3
274
-4.2
8-3
-4.8
187
208
159
FCS
Chattanooga
4.9
5.3
-0.4
124
-2.9
2-9
-4.8
188
192
146
FCS
UC Davis
5.7
5.9
-0.2
165
-3.5
5-6
-4.8
189
184
161
FCS
Maine
4.7
5.2
-0.5
143
-3.4
4-7
-4.9
190
174
145
FCS
Northeastern
4.9
5.6
-0.7
125
-3.2
3-8
-4.9
191
232
--
NAIA
Morningside IA
5.5
3.8
+1.7
297
-4.3
9-3
-4.9
192
194
155
FCS
Colgate
5.4
5.1
+0.3
216
-4.1
7-4
-5.0
193
220
--
II
Newberry
6.1
4.3
+1.8
320
-4.6
9-2
-5.0
194
205
--
II
Missouri Southern
5.1
4.8
+0.3
215
-4.0
6-5
-5.0
195
188
150
FBS
Northern Illinois
5.0
5.8
-0.8
110
-3.0
2-10
-5.1
196
136
128
FBS
Eastern Michigan
4.9
6.1
-1.2
103
-3.3
4-8
-5.1
197
168
153
FBS
New Mexico St.
5.5
6.2
-0.7
117
-3.1
4-9
-5.1
198
169
142
FBS
Utah State
4.5
6.2
-1.5
87
-2.9
2-10
-5.1
199
230
167
FCS
Lafayette
5.1
4.0
+1.1
268
-4.3
7-4
-5.1
200
206
166
FCS
Stony Brook
5.2
5.2
+0.0
198
-4.0
6-5
-5.1
201
201
147
FCS
Illinois State
5.6
6.1
-0.5
149
-3.5
4-7
-5.1
202
170
--
III
UW-Whitewater
5.4
4.1
+1.3
310
-4.9
14-1
-5.1
203
245
--
NAIA
Montana Western
5.4
5.1
+0.3
203
-3.8
5-6
-5.1
204
227
169
FBS
SMU
5.6
6.2
-0.6
109
-2.8
1-11
-5.2
205
210
178
FCS
Southern Univ.
5.3
4.5
+0.8
269
-4.6
8-3
-5.2
206
200
163
FCS
Towson
4.5
5.1
-0.6
142
-3.5
3-8
-5.2
207
193
173
FCS
Eastern Illinois
5.5
5.2
+0.3
228
-4.3
8-4
-5.2
208
249
192
FCS
Portland State
5.6
5.8
-0.2
166
-3.5
3-8
-5.2
209
140
143
FCS
Delaware State
4.5
4.9
-0.4
221
-4.9
10-2
-5.3
210
209
--
NAIA
Montana Tech
4.2
4.1
+0.1
229
-4.5
7-4
-5.3
211
231
175
FBS
Idaho
4.8
5.8
-1.0
104
-3.1
1-11
-5.4
212
176
157
FBS
UAB
4.8
6.5
-1.7
94
-3.2
2-10
-5.4
213
248
191
FCS
Cal St Sacramento
4.9
5.3
-0.4
161
-3.7
3-8
-5.4
214
241
--
NAIA
MSU Northern
4.7
4.2
+0.5
241
-4.4
6-5
-5.4
215
217
--
NAIA
Saint Francis IN
6.2
4.3
+1.9
345
-5.0
11-2
-5.4
216
183
170
FBS
Florida Internat.
4.2
6.2
-2.0
70
-3.1
1-11
-5.5
217
167
152
FBS
Rice
5.3
6.5
-1.2
113
-3.5
3-9
-5.5
218
202
156
FCS
Albany NY
5.1
4.8
+0.3
246
-4.7
8-4
-5.5
219
229
--
II
Augustana SD
4.3
5.0
-0.7
164
-4.0
4-7
-5.5
220
222
182
FCS
Prairie View A&M
5.3
4.7
+0.6
276
-5.0
7-3
-5.6
221
268
191
FCS
Princeton
5.2
4.9
+0.3
233
-4.4
4-6
-5.6
222
246
--
II
Tusculum
5.4
4.7
+0.7
264
-4.6
6-5
-5.6
223
207
--
II
St. Cloud State
4.1
5.1
-1.0
153
-4.1
4-7
-5.6
224
163
--
II
Winona State
6.1
5.7
+0.4
272
-5.1
10-2
-5.6
225
295
197
FCS
Tennessee-Martin
6.1
5.4
+0.7
243
-4.2
4-7
-5.7
226
175
168
FBS
North Texas
5.2
6.7
-1.5
97
-3.5
2-10
-5.7
227
240
171
FCS
Lehigh
5.0
5.1
-0.1
213
-4.8
5-6
-5.7
228
294
198
FCS
Southern Utah
4.8
5.8
-1.0
120
-3.4
0-11
-5.7
229
257
--
III
M. Hardin-Baylor
7.0
3.9
+3.1
418
-5.3
12-2
-5.7
230
216
--
III
Bethel MN
5.1
4.2
+0.9
319
-5.3
12-2
-5.7
231
282
205
FCS
Morgan State
5.0
4.2
+0.8
270
-4.6
5-6
-5.8
232
263
190
FCS
Cornell
5.2
4.7
+0.5
261
-4.8
5-5
-5.8
233
190
174
FCS
Norfolk State
4.6
4.7
-0.1
252
-5.2
8-3
-5.8
234
195
148
FCS
Fordham
5.4
5.7
-0.3
227
-4.9
8-4
-5.8
235
265
196
FCS
SE Louisiana
5.3
5.7
-0.4
182
-4.1
3-8
-5.8
236
254
186
FCS
Western Carolina
5.1
6.4
-1.3
114
-3.6
1-10
-5.8
237
242
--
NAIA
Northwestern IA
5.4
4.2
+1.2
327
-5.4
8-2
-5.8
238
274
185
FCS
Penn
4.5
4.5
+0.0
231
-4.7
4-6
-5.9
239
271
201
FCS
Tennessee State
5.9
5.3
+0.6
255
-4.6
5-6
-5.9
240
181
160
FCS
Rhode Island
4.6
6.0
-1.4
131
-4.1
3-8
-5.9
241
235
179
FCS
Hampton
4.9
5.2
-0.3
230
-4.9
6-5
-6.0
242
251
180
FCS
Brown
5.6
5.7
-0.1
237
-4.9
5-5
-6.0
243
221
194
FCS
Northwestern LA
5.1
6.3
-1.2
160
-4.4
4-7
-6.0
244
299
206
FCS
Presbyterian
6.7
5.6
+1.1
302
-5.0
6-5
-6.1
245
223
181
FCS
Texas State
5.6
6.7
-1.1
167
-4.5
4-7
-6.1
246
233
--
II
Arkansas Tech
4.8
5.3
-0.5
222
-5.0
5-5
-6.1
247
244
--
III
Saint John's MN
5.5
4.2
+1.3
349
-5.7
10-2
-6.1
248
243
--
NAIA
Missouri Valley
5.1
4.4
+0.7
312
-5.6
10-3
-6.2
249
267
208
FCS
Idaho State
5.4
6.4
-1.0
179
-4.6
3-8
-6.4
250
199
--
III
Central College IA
5.3
4.7
+0.6
336
-6.2
12-1
-6.4


Crossposted to LawPundit.

4 comments:

  1. Your table of adjustments for schedule difficulty does not match your description.

    For example, Florida has the #1 most difficult schedule according to your table, and it received a large positive correction for schedule.

    UCLA has the #2 most difficult schedule, and it received no correction for schedule.

    In both cases, your description page says that they would both get a 0.1 negative correction (0.1 subtracted from the rating).

    Can you explain?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi,

    As we wrote at LawPundit.

    "For a schedule difficulty rank from 1 to 10, a value of .1 is deducted from the NAYPPA."

    FLORIDA

    Florida had a net average yards per play of 7.0 on offense and 5.2 on defense = a NAYPPA of +1.8. Its schedue rank was 1, so, according to the above rule, we deduct .1 from +1.8 = +1.7. Florida lost 4 games, so that we deduct .2 per loss, which is a total deducation of .8. which leaves +0.9.

    However, as we wrote at LawPundit

    ".1 is deducted from the NAYPPA of any team whose total defense averages 5.0 yards per play or worse and .2 is deducted from the NAYPPA of any team whose total defense averages 6.0 yards per play or worse."

    Florida allowed 5.2 net average yards per play, so that .1 is deducted from +0.9 = +0.8

    UCLA

    UCLA had a net average yards per play of 4.7 on offense and 4.6 on defense = a NAYPPA of +0.1. Its schedue rank was 2, so, according to the first rule stated above, we deduct .1 from +0.1 = +0.0. UCLA lost 7 games, so that we deduct .2 per loss, which is a total deducation of 1.4 which makes it -1.4.

    Since UCLA allowed only 4.6 net average yards per play, there is no deduction, which means that it stays at -1.4. in the ratings.

    Thank you for your question.

    SportPundit

    ReplyDelete
  3. I see. The confusing part is the headers on the table. I read the "corr." column to be the correction for schedule strength, but it is actually the rating after applying the strength of schedule correction. Thanks for the explanation.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanx Matt,

    I'll work on improving the headers.

    Andis

    ReplyDelete

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