College Football Game Prognostications and Results for the Weekend of September 6, 2008 (Week 2 of the NCAA Season) + Student-Athlete Football Blogs

UPDATE: Our record this week for picking the college football game winner on the basis of our SPRS ratings was 72-12 (including a run of 41 straight correct selections) but we were only 21-21 against the spread. For the year, this makes us 152-31 in selecting the college football game winner and 44-39 against the spread.
________

These are our SPRS-based predictions and results for the second week of college football in the 2008 / 2009 season, first posted September 4, and then updated regularly by the final scores. We do this because it interests us. We disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. The home team is listed first. May the best team win. Odds as of September 3.

St. John Fisher (not rated in top 250) at Mount Union -3.3
Last season Mount Union beat St. John Fisher in the Division III playoffs 52-10 only to be upset by Wisconsin -Whitewater under terrible field conditions in the Division III championship game. We call it here 56-7 for Mount Union. Final score : 33-3 for Mount Union, the number one ranked team in Division III football, as each team ran 64 plays, St. John Fisher, the 10th-ranked teams, for 249 yards (3.9 yards per play) and the Purple Raiders for 524 yards (8.2. yards per play). Our record this week for picking the winner is 1-0 and against the spread 0-0.

The Mount Union senior quarterback, Greg Micheli will be blogging all season long as part of an NCAA student-athlete blogging program. The NCAA student-athlete football blogs are:

FBS
Vinny Perretta, Boise State
Brian Brunner, Central Michigan
James Smith, Florida
Michael Lockley, Florida Atlantic
Marcus Freeman, Ohio State
Orion Martin, Virginia Tech

FCS
Pierre Banks, Appalachian State
Liam Coen, Massachusetts
Colin Dow, Montana
Tyler Roehl, North Dakota State

Division II
Rob Carlisle, Grand Valley State
Joel Osborn, Northwest Missouri State
Davis Nall, Valdosta State

Division III
John Scrabeck, Bethel (Minn.)
Quincy Daniels, Mary Hardin-Baylor
Greg Micheli, Mount Union

Read those blogs to get a glimpse of the "human" side of football, which too easily can get lost in the scores and the stats. After all, it is the people that count.

Alabama is favored by 30 points over Tulane.
Our SPRS final rankings of last year give Alabama a rating of -1.5 points and Tulane a rating of -4.5 points. Each point of rating difference, here three rating points, is worth 9 scoring points on the scoreboard. i.e. 3 x 9 = 27. To that, one adds the home field advantage, which we have rounded to 3 points, and, since the Crimson Tide hold the home field advantage, this is 27 + 3 points = 30 points. Based on the impressive Alabama win over ranked and highly regarded Clemson last week, however, we think that 'Bama is 1 TD better than that and call it by 37, Alabama 51 Tulane 14. Final Score: 20-6 for Alabama in a very unimpressive win. The Crimson Tide was lucky to emerge as victors, as the Green Wave outgained them 3.9 to 3.5 net yards per play and put up 18 first downs to 11. Our record this week for picking the winner is 2-0 and against the spread 0-1.

Arizona is favored by 23 points over Toledo.
By SPRS ratings, Arizona is rated at -1.1 and Toledo -4.0 = a difference of 2.9 x 9 scoring points = 26 points plus 3 points for home field advantage = 29 points. Toledo's high-powered offense faces a high-powered defense, but last week the Arizona offense also jelled in a 70-0 victory over Idaho. We call it Arizona 49 Toledo 20. Final Score: 41-16 for Arizona, as the Wildcats outgained the Rockets 6.7 to 4.4 net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 3-0 and against the spread 1-1.

Arizona State is favored by 14 points over Stanford.
By SPRS ratings, Arizona State is -0.6 and Stanford is -3.3, which is 2.7 x 9 points = 24 points plus a home field advantage for Arizona State, which makes 27 points. Stanford's gritty win over Oregon State last week, which outgained the Cardinal substantially in total offense, shows that Stanford will be a tougher team to beat this year, but the Sun Devils may just have too much football talent for Stanford yet, in spite of great strides made under terrific head coach Jim Harbaugh. We call it Arizona State 38 Stanford 21, even though we will, as a Stanford alumnus, of course be rooting for the football team from Palo Alto. Final Score: 41-17, as the Sun Devils outgained the Cardinal 6.6 to 3.8 net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 4-0 and against the spread 2-1.

Arkansas is favored by 12 points over Louisiana-Monroe.
How the "mighty" Razorbacks have fallen, nearly losing to Western Illinois last week. Their best former coach is at Tulsa (Gus Malzahn), their former controversial head coach is at Mississippi and their best former players are at USC. According to the final SPRS from last season, Arkansas has a rating of +0.1, one of only eleven teams in the country to have a plus rating. Louisiana-Monroe has a rating of 3.2, so that Arkansas would normally have an advantage of 3.3 rating points x 9 scoring points = 30 scoring points plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 33 points. Louisiana-Monroe lost by a similar 34-0 last week to Auburn and we can see very little likelihood that this will change this week against the Razorbacks. We call it 40-7 for Arkansas. Final Score: 28-27, as the Razorbacks outgained the Warhawks 7.2 to 5.2 net average yards per play, but the new coaching staff is not getting the scoring out of Arkansas that the talent and yardage performance of the team warrants. By the 2.0 edge (7.2 vs. 5.2) in NAYPPA, plus the home field advantage, Arkansas should have won by 21. As it is, Arkansas was lucky to win, scoring two 4th-quarter TDs to come back from what had been at one time an 18-point deficit, with LA Monroe missing a 45-yard field goal at the end of the game to give the game to Arkansas. Our record this week for picking the winner is 5-0 and against the spread 2-2.

Auburn is favored by 17 1/2 points over Southern Miss.
The SPRS rating for Auburn is -0.7 and for Southern Miss -3.4 so that Auburn must be seen as about 2.7 (3.4 minus 0.7) x 9 points = 24 points plus 3 points for home team = 27 points better than Southern Miss. We call it Auburn 44 and Southern Miss 17. Final Score: Auburn won 27-13 averaging 5.0 to the Southern Miss 4.0 yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 6-0 and against the spread 2-3.

Ball State is favored by 7 1/2 points over Navy.
By SPRS, Ball State has a rating of -3.1 and Navy -2.9. This makes Ball State .2 x 9 points = 1.8 points worse than Navy, but with the 3 points for home team advantage, makes Ball State about a 1 point favorite. We think that the Navy rushing offense will prevail and call it 46-44 for the Midshipmen. Result: We should have stuck with our own SPRS prognosis, as Ball State in fact won the game 35-23. The Cardinals gained 488 yards on 29 rushes and 28 pass attempts, a gain of 8.6 yards per play whereas Navy had 413 yards on 59 rushes and 11 pass attempts, a gain of 5.9 yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 6-1 and against the spread 2-4.

Boston College is favored by 7 points over Georgia Tech.
By SPRS the Eagles are rated -0.1 and the Yellow Jackets -1.7, i.e. an advantage of 1.6 x 9 points = 14 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 17 points. We call it 38-21 for Boston College. Final Score: 19-16 for Georgia Tech., who averaged 4.7 yards per play to the Eagles 3.4 yards. Our record this week for picking the winner is 6-2 and against the spread 2-5.

Bowling Green is favored by 5 1/2 points over Minnesota.
The Falcons were annihilated 63-7 by Tulsa to close out last season and came out of nowhere to defeat Pittsburgh 27-17 last week, whereas the Gophers barely squeaked by Northern Illinois. By SPRS, Bowling Green is rated -3.3 and Minnesota -4.5, a difference of 1.2 x 9 points = 11 points plus the home team advantage of 3 points = 14 points. We call it for the Falcons 38-24. Final Score: Minnesota came out of nowhere to mangle Bowling Green 42-17: "Minnesota (2-0) has doubled its win total from a year ago when the Gophers finished 1-11 in coach Tim Brewster’s first season." In terms of net average yards gained per play, the stats there are more realistic, with the Gophers holding a 5.7 to 5.5. advantage. Our record this week for picking the winner is 6-3 and against the spread 2-6.

Central Florida is a 14 1/2 point underdog to South Florida.
By SPRS the Bulls have a rating of -0.4 as opposed to a rating of -1.5 for UCF, an advantage of 1.1 x 9 points = 10 points minus 3 points for home team advantage for UCF = 7 points. We call it 24-17 for South Florida. Final Score: 31-24 for South Florida in overtime. The Bulls dominated the game in terms of total offense, 502 to 226, and 5.9 to 3.8 in terms of net average yards gained per play, but had trouble putting points on the scoreboard. Our record this week for picking the winner is 7-3 and against the spread 3-6.

Duke is a 6 point underdog to Northwestern.
By SPRS Duke has a rating of -4.2 versus a rating of -2.6 for Northwestern, an advantage of 1.6 x 9 points for Northwestern = 14 points minus 3 points home team advantage to Duke = 11 points. We call it 38-27 for Northwestern. Final Score: 24-20 for the Wildcats, with the Blue Devils being outgained only 5.5 (on only 60 plays) to 5.2 yards per play (on 91 plays !), so that Duke actually had the total offense advantage 472-328 and should have won this game. Duke is definitely a better team this year than last. Our record this week for picking the winner is 8-3 and against the spread 3-7.

East Carolina is an 8 point underdog to West Virginia.
By SPRS, East Carolina has a rating of -2.3 as compared to a rating of +1.2 for the Mountaineers, an advantage of 3.5 rating points x 9 scoring points for West Virginia = 32 points minus 3 points home team advantage for the Pirates = 29 scoring points. Of course, one must also take into account this season that East Carolina beat highly regarded Virginia Tech 27-22. We call it for West Virginia 35-21. Final Score: East Carolina is on a roll, knocking off West Virginia handily 24-3, and putting up 5.4 to 4.6 net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 8-4 and against the spread 3-8.

Florida is a 21 1/2 point favorite over Miami of Florida.
SPRS Florida +0.8
SPRS Miam of Florida -2,2
The rating difference is 3 points x 9 scoring points = 27 points plus home field advantage to the Seminoles = 30 points. We call it 51-21 for Florida. Final Score: Florida won by 26-3 on the strength of its defense, whereas the offense struggled, averaging a subpar 5.6 net average yards per play as compared to the Hurricans 2.4 yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 9-4 and against the spread 4-8.

Florida Atlantic is a 13 point favorite over UAB.
SPRS Florida Atlantic -2.2
SPRS UAB -5.4
Rating difference is 3.2 points x 9 scoring points = 29 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 32 scoring points. We call it 45-13 for Florida Atlantic. Final Score: Florida Atlantic won 49-34, with the Owls averaging 9.2 yards per play vs. 5.8 yards per play for the Blazers, who ran 23 more plays and actually rolled up 482 yards to the Florida Atlantic 554 yards. Our record this week for picking the winner is 10-4 and against the spread 5-8.

Georgia is a 23 point favorite over Central Michigan.
SPRS Georgia +0.3
SPRS Central Michigan -2.8
Rating difference is -3.1 points x 9 scoring points = 28 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 31 scoring points. We call it 44-13 for Georgia. Final Score: After a slow start, Georgia closed strongly to win 56-17, with an 8.0 to 4.7 net average yards per play advantage. Our record this week for picking the winner is 11-4 and against the spread 6-8.

Iowa is a 27 point favorite over Florida International.
SPRS Iowa -2.4
SPRS Florida International -5.5
Rating difference is 3.1 points x 9 scoring points = 28 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 31 scoring points. We call it 48-17 for Iowa. Final Score: Iowa blanked Florida International 42-0. The Hawkeyes had an average gain per play of 7.8 yards compared to 3.5 yards for the Golden Panthers. Our record this week for picking the winner is 12-4 and against the spread 7-8.

Iowa State is a 7 point favorite over Kent.
SPRS Iowa State -3.7
SPRS Kent State -4.3
Rating difference is .6 points x 9 scoring points = 5 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 8 scoring points. We call it 28-20 for Iowa State. Final Score: Iowa State showed again that it is an improved team this year, beating Kent State 48-28 on the strength of strong defensive play, recovering 4 fumbles. As far as total offense is concerned, the Golden Flashes were ahead 6.1 to 5.7 yards gained per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 13-4 and against the spread 8-8.

Kansas is a 20 1/2 point favorite Louisiana Tech.
SPRS Kansas +0.8
SPRS Louisiana Tech -4.1
Rating difference is 4.9 points x 9 scoring points = 44 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 47 scoring points. We call it 57-10 for Kansas. Final Score: 29-0, as the Jayhawks outgained the Bulldogs 7.6 to 4.5 net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 14-4 and against the spread 9-8.

LSU is - was - a 23 1/2 point favorite over Troy State
- game postponed to November 15.
SPRS LSU +0.9
SPRS Troy State -1.8
Rating difference is 2.7 points x 9 scoring points = 24 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 27 scoring points. We called it 41-14 for LSU, but we will now have to wait what developments the season bring in the interim. This prognostication is placed on hold.

Memphis is favored by 3 1/2 points over Rice.
SPRS Memphis -4.3
SPRS Rice -5.5
Rating difference is 1.2 points x 9 scoring points = 11 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 14 scoring points. We call it 45-3 for Memphis. Final Score: Rice won surprisingly 42-35 on a 69-yard interception return with 11 seconds left on the clock to hand Memphis, poorly coached in its playcalling at that time, into an ignominious defeat. The Tigers put up nearly 100 yards more total offense and outgained the Owls 6.9 to 6.1 net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 14-5 and against the spread 9-9.

Michigan is favored by 14 points over Miami (Ohio).
SPRS Michigan -0.9
SPRS Miami of Ohio -3.1
Rating difference is 2.2 points x 9 scoring points = 20 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 23 scoring points. We call it 30-7 for Michigan. Result: Michigan struggled mightily to win against the Red Hawks 16-6. Miami of Ohio gained 252 yards on 72 plays for a 3.5 yard average, whereas the Wolverines gained 287 yards on only 50 plays for a 5.7 yard average, the same 2.2 point advantage that prevailed last year, except that the scoring did not reflect that dominance, so Michigan still has coaching issues. Our record this week for picking the winner is 15-5 and against the spread 9-10.

Michigan State is favored by 21 points over Eastern Michigan.
SPRS Michigan State -1.4
SPRS Eastern Michigan -5.1
Rating difference is 3.7 points x 9 scoring points = 33 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 36 scoring points. We call it 43-7 for Michigan State. Result: 42-10 for the Spartans, who, however, had only a 6.1 to 5.7 advantage in net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 16-5 and against the spread 10-10.

Middle Tennessee is a 13 1/2 point underdog to Maryland.
SPRS Maryland -2.1
SPRS Middle Tennessee -3.4
Rating difference is 1.3 points x 9 scoring points = 12 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 9 scoring points. We call it 35-24 for Maryland. Final Score: Three interceptions sank the Terrapins, who outgained the Blue Raiders 6.6 to 4.9 net average yards per play, but were on the losing end on the scoreboard. The Maryland team must have some coaching an playcalling problems, because they should otherwise have won this game. Our record this week for picking the winner is 16-6 and against the spread 11-10.

Nebraska is favored by 26 points over San Jose State.
SPRS Nebraska -1.5
SPRS San Jose State -3.5
Rating difference is 2 points x 9 scoring points = 18 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 21 scoring points. We call it 44-23 for the Huskers. Final Score: The Huskers won 35-12 in a strange game dominated for long stretches by San Jose State, a game in which the Huskers net average yards per play was a meagre 5.5 to the Spartans 5.3. Thus far, the Cornhuskers are not playing any better this year than their record of last year would indicate, so we are still sceptical about the ultimate outcome of this season, where strong improvement had been anticipated. The Husker talent base is perhaps just too thin - or - it is still taking time to install a new system. Our record this week for picking the winner is 17-6 and against the spread 12-10.

Nevada is a 10 point underdog to Texas Tech.
SPRS Texas Tech +0.2
SPRS Nevada -3.0
Rating difference is 3.2 points x 9 scoring points = 29 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 26 scoring points. We call it 50-24 for Texas Tech. Final Score: Texas Tech did not look too great but won 35-19 averaging a mere 6.2 to the Wolf Pack 6.0 yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 18-6 and against the spread 13-10.

New Mexico is a 3 point underdog to Texas A&M.
SPRS New Mexico -1.6
SPRS Texas A&M -2.0
Rating difference is 0.4 points x 9 scoring points = 4 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 7 scoring points. We call it 34-27 for New Mexico. Final Score: The Aggies surprised us by beating New Mexico 28-22, even though the Lobos outgained them 370 to 236 yards total offense, as the Lobos averaged 4.9 net average yards per play compared to only a very weak 3.7 yards per play by Texas A&M. The game was skewed by four costly New Mexico turnovers. Our record this week for picking the winner is 18-7 and against the spread 13-11.

North Texas is a 21 1/2 point underdog to Tulsa.
SPRS Tulsa -1.5
SPRS North Texas -5.7
Rating difference is 4.2 points x 9 scoring points = 38 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 35 scoring points. We call it 55-20 for Tulsa. Final Score: The Golden Hurricane continue to put up impressive offensive stats, beating the Mean Green 56-26 and holding a net average per play advantage of 7.9 to 5.7. Our record this week for picking the winner is 19-7 and against the spread 14-11.

Notre Dame is a 22 1/2 point favorite over San Diego State.
SPRS Notre Dame -3.4
SPRS San Diego State -3.6
Rating difference is 0.2 points x 9 scoring points = 2 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 5 scoring points. We call it 19-14 for Notre Dame. Final Score: The Fighting Irish won 21-13 but are still a long way from being like the Notre Dame teams of yore, having trailed 13-7 going into the 4th quarter. Indeed, the Aztecs put up 3 yards more on total offense, although Notre Dame on fewer plays held a net average per play advantage of 5.1 to 4.9. Our record this week for picking the winner is 20-7 and against the spread 15-11.

Ohio State is a 34 point favorite over Ohio.
SPRS Ohio State +1.2
SPRS Ohio -3.8
Rating difference is 5.0 points x 9 scoring points = 45 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 48 scoring points. We call it 55-7 for Ohio State. Result: Ohio led at the half 7-6 and rolled up 260 yards total offense on 63 plays for a 4.1 yard average gain per play while Ohio State gained 287 yards on 67 plays for a 4.3 yard average gain per play. The Buckeyes won the game 26-14 due to 5 Ohio turnovers (4 intercepted passes) and a 69-yard punt return by Ray Small. Even though Ohio lost, it was a moral victory for Frank Solich and Ohio, who put a scare into what might well be an overrated team in Columbus. Our record this week for picking the winner is 20-8 and against the spread 15-12.

Oklahoma is a 21 1/2 point favorite over Cincinnati.
SPRS Oklahoma +0.8
SPRS Cincinnati -0.8
Rating difference is 1.6 points x 9 scoring points = 14 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 17 scoring points. We call it 41-24 for Oklahoma. Final Score: The Sooners rolled 52-26 after leading only 28-20 in the 3rd quarter. Oklahoma averaged 7.2 net yards per play to the Cincinnati 4.6 yards per play. By the NAYPPA of 2.6 (7.2 minus 4.6) x 9 points = 23 points plus 3 points home team advantage, the 26-point win accurately reflects the strength difference of the two teams. Our record this week for picking the winner is 21-8 and against the spread 15-13.

Oklahoma State is a 16 1/2 point favorite over Houston.
SPRS Oklahoma State -0.9
SPRS Houston -2.7
Rating difference is 1.8 points x 9 scoring points = 16 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 19 scoring points. We call it 40-21 for the Cowboys. Final Score: 56-37 for the Cowboys, who averaged a stunning 9.7 yards per play for 699 yards of total offense as compared to 5.8 yards per play for the Cougars. Our record this week for picking the winner is 22-8 and against the spread 16-13.

Oregon is a 35 1/2 point favorite over Utah State.
SPRS Oregon -0.2
SPRS Utah State -5.1
Rating difference is 4.9 points x 9 scoring points = 44 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 47 scoring points. We call it 54-7 for Oregon. Final Score: Oregon won 66-24, gaining an average of 7.8 yards per play for 688 yards total offense as compared to 4.6 yards per play for the Aggies. Our record this week for picking the winner is 23-8 and against the spread 17-13.

Penn State is a 16 1/2 point favorite over Oregon State.
SPRS Penn State -0.7
SPRS Oregon State -0.7
Rating difference is 0 points. The teams are even. Penn State has the home team advantage of 3 points. We call it 17-14 for the Nittany Lions. Final Score: The Nittany Lions won 45-14, averaging 7.0 yards per play to 4.7 yards per play for the Beavers. Penn State has a very strong team this year. Our record this week for picking the winner is 24-8 and against the spread 17-14.

Pittsburgh is a 13 point favorite over Buffalo.
SPRS Pittsburgh -1.5
SPRS Buffalo -4.0
Rating difference is 2.5 points x 9 scoring points = 23 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 26 scoring points. We call it 48-22 for Pittsburgh. Final Score: Buffalo is an improved team this year, losing to Pitt by only 27-16, and playing Panters nearly even, as the Bulls averaged 5.3 yards per play and Pitt 5.4 yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 25-8 and against the spread 17-15.

Syracuse is a 5 point favorite over Akron.
SPRS Syracuse -4.3
SPRS Akron -4.0
Rating difference is 0.3 points x 9 scoring points = -3 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 0 scoring points. The game is dead even by the stats. We call it 21-20 for Syracuse, giving the home team the advantage. Final Score: Akron beat Syracuse 42-28. The Zips averaged 6.6 yards per play and Orange 5.6 yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 25-9 and against the spread 18-15.

Temple is a 7 point underdog to Connecticut.
SPRS Temple -4.6
SPRS Connecticut -1.9
Rating difference is 2.7 points x 9 scoring points = 24 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 21 scoring points. We call it 42-21 for UConn. Result: Temple put up a great battle before falling 12-9 to the Huskies in overtime. Head coach Al Golden is making great progress in developing the Owls football program. The Huskies averaged 5.0 per play to the Owls 4.9. Our record this week for picking the winner is 26-9 and against the spread 18-16.

UTEP is a 27 point underdog to Texas.
SPRS UTEP -4.5
SPRS Texas - 0.1
Rating difference is 4.4 points x 9 scoring points = 40 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 37 scoring points. We call it 44-7 for Texas. Final Score: 42-13 for the Longhorns, as Texas averaged 6.7 yards per play to 5.4 yards per play for the Miners. Our record this week for picking the winner is 27-9 and against the spread 19-16.

Utah is a 21 1/2 point favorite over UNLV.
SPRS Utah -1.4
SPRS UNLV -3.7
Rating difference is 2.3 points x 9 scoring points = 21 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 24 scoring points. We call it 38-14 for Utah. Final Score: 42-21 for the Utes, who led the yards per play statistic 6.3 to 3.7. Our record this week for picking the winner is 28-9 and against the spread 19-17.

Vanderbilt is a 10 point underdog to South Carolina.
SPRS South Carolina -1.2
SPRS Vanderbilt -2.0
Rating difference is 0.8 points x 9 scoring points = 7 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 4 scoring points. We call it 24-20 for South Carolina. Result: We beat the spread but did not call the winner. Not only was the spread too wide, but Vandy upset the Gamecocks 24-17, in spite of South Carolina averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense to only 4.2 on the side of the Commodores, who gained 100 yards less on total offense. Of course, 3 turnovers hurt the Gamecocks, but part of the problem at South Carolina is apparently poor coaching and playcalling. With 2:42 left in the game, trailing 24-17, South Carolina had the balll on the Vandy 42-yard line, 4th and 18, and elected to PUNT rather than to go for 1st down. Either you want to win or not. Vandy ran out the clock. Prior to that, South Carolina had the ball on the Vandy 34-yard line, 1st and 10, and managed to get sacked twice in a row. How is that possible? By definition, given the disastrous results, the coaches were calling the wrong plays throughout. Our record this week for picking the winner is 28-10 and against the spread 20-17.

Wake Forest is an 8 1/2 point favorite over Mississippi.
SPRS Wake Forest -1.2
SPRS Mississippi -2.3
Rating difference is 1.1 points x 9 scoring points = 10 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 13 scoring points. We call it 34-21 for Wake Forest. Final Score: 30-28. Wake Forest won the game on a field goal in the last 8 seconds, although the Rebels won the yardage battle, 5.8 to 4.7 yards per play, but the Rebsl were hurt by the 3-1 turnover disadvantage. Our record this week for picking the winner is 29-10 and against the spread 20-18.

Washington is a 9 point underdog to BYU.
SPRS Washington -2.6
SPRS BYU -0.2
Rating difference is 2.4 points x 9 scoring points = 22 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 19 scoring points. We call it 40-21 for BYU. Final Score: 28-27 for an unimpressive BYU win. A missed last extra point gave the Cougars the game, who dominated the yards per play 6.9 to 5.0 but could not turn that advantage into deciding scores. Our record this week for picking the winner is 29-10 and against the spread 20-18.

Washington State is a 13 1/2 point underdog to California.
SPRS Washington State -1.5
SPRS California -0.5
Rating difference is 1.0 points x 9 scoring points = 9 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 6 scoring points. We call it 34-28 for Cal. Final Results: The Golden Bears overwhelmed Washington State 66-3, averaging 7.9 yards per play while holding the Cougars to only 2.6 yards per play. When compared to the Oklahoma State game, Cal at the moment definitely looks like a potential top 10 team. Our record this week for picking the winner is 30-10 and against the spread 20-19.

Western Michigan is a 6 point favorite over Northern Illinois.
SPRS Western Michigan -4.0
SPRS Northern Illinois -5.1
Rating difference is 1.1 points x 9 scoring points = 10 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 13 scoring points. We call it 44-31 for Western Michigan. Final Score: 29-26 for Western Michigan, who led the average yards per play statistic 6.2-5.7. These yards per play statistics mesh well with the Western Michigan game result against Nebraska. Combined, it would indicated that Nebraska is 27 points better than Northern Illinois and 24 points better than Western Michigan. Our record this week for picking the winner is 31-10 and against the spread 20-20.

Wisconsin is a 20 1/2 point favorite over Marshall.
SPRS Wisconsin -1.6
SPRS Marshall -3.5
Rating difference is 1.9 points x 9 scoring points = 17 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 20 scoring points. We call it 41-21 for Wisconsin. Final Result: The Badgers trailed 14-0 early but rallied to win going away 51-14. The net average yards per play advantage for Wisconsin was 7.3 to 4.2. Our record this week for picking the winner is 32-10 and against the spread 20-21.

Wyoming is a 3 point favorite over Air Force.
SPRS Air Force -1.4
SPRS Wyoming -2.7
Rating difference is 1.3 points x 9 scoring points = 12 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 9 scoring points. We call it 30-21 for Air Force. Final Result: Air Force won 23-3, holding a 4.1 to 3.9 yards per play gained advantage. Our record this week for picking the winner is 33-10 and against the spread 21-21.

OTHER GAMES: the number next to each team below is the SPRS rating used to calculate the spread, so that 1 point of difference in SPRS ratings = 9 points on the scoreboard. Here, the visiting team is listed first:

Northern Colorado -7.1 at Purdue -1.7
A difference of 5.4 rating points x 9 = 49 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 52 points. We call this game 59-7 for the Boilermakers. Result: Purdue won 42-10. Northern Colorado gained 340 yards on 79 plays for a 4.3 yard average per play. Purdue gained 399 yards on 54 plays for a 7.4 yard average per play. The final score reflects this difference accurately. Our record this week for picking the winner is 34-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Eastern Illinois -5.2 at Illinois -0.6
A difference of 4.6 rating points x 9 = 41 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 44 points We call this game 51-7 for the Illini. Final Score: the Illini win 47-21, rolling up 6.9 yards per play to the Eastern Illinois 5.1. Our record this week for picking the winner is 35-10 and against the spread 21-21.

New Hampshire -3.5 at Army -4.6
A difference of 1.1 rating points x 9 = 10 points minus 3 points for the Army's home team advantage = 7 points. We call this game 34-27 for New Hampshire. Final Score: New Hampshire won 28-10. Our record this week for picking the winner is 36-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Furman -3.9 at Virginia Tech -0.3
A difference of 3.6 rating points x 9 = 32 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 35 points. We call this game 42-7 for the Hokies. Final Score: Virginia Tech won 24-7. Our record this week for picking the winner is 37-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Sacramento State -5.4 at Colorado State -3.4
A difference of 2.0 rating points x 9 = 18 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 21 points. We call this game 31-13 for Colorado State. Result: Colorado State won 23-20. Our record this week for picking the winner is 38-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Tennessee Tech (not in our top 250) at Louisville -1.9
Tennessee Tech surprised greatly by beating Gardner-Webb (SPRS rating - 4.4) 28-12 last week, although Gardner-Webb put up over 500 yards total offense. Based on that game, if we give Tennessee Tech a rating of about 4.4, then we would have a difference of 2.5 rating points x 9 = 23 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 26 points. We call this game 44-28 for Louisville. Final Result: Louisville won 51-10. Our record this week for picking the winner is 39-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Eastern Washington -3.0 at Colorado -2.3
Eastern Washington got blitzed 49-24 by Texas Tech last week, but the Buffaloes will have more trouble. A difference of .7 rating points x 9 = 6 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 9 points. We call this game 35-26 for the Buffs. Final Score: Colorado won 31-24. This result shows us that our SPRS ratings for FCS teams vs. FBS teams are sound. Our record this week for picking the winner is 40-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Citadel -3.4 at Clemson -0.3
A difference of 3.1 rating points x 9 = 28 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 31 points. We call this game 45-14 for Clemson. Result: Clemson won 45-17. Our record this week for picking the winner is 41-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Richmond -2.5 at Virginia -1.3
A difference of 1.2 rating points x 9 = 11 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 14 points. We call this game 45-31 for the Cavaliers. Final Result: Virginia won 16-0. Our record this week for picking the winner is 42-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Idaho State -6.5 at Idaho -.5.4
A difference of 1.0 rating points x 9 = 9 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 12 points. We call this game 40-28 for Idaho. Final Score: 42-27 for Idaho. Our record this week for picking the winner is 43-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Western Kentucky -3.3 at Eastern Kentucky -4.5
A difference of 1.2 rating points x 9 = 11 points minus 3 points for home team advantage = 8 points. We call this game 28-20 for Western Kentucky. Result: Western Kentucky won 37-13. Our record this week for picking the winner is 44-10 and against the spread 21-21.

William & Mary -4.0 at North Carolina State -2.4
A difference of 1.6 rating points x 9 = 14 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 17 points. We call this game 31-14 for North Carolina State. Final Result: NC State won 34-24. Our record this week for picking the winner is 45-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Norfolk State -5.8 at Kentucky -0.9
A difference of 4.9 rating points x 9 = 44 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 47 points. We call this game 54-7 for Kentucky. Final Score: Kentucky won 38-3. Our record this week for picking the winner is 46-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Western Carolina -5.8 at Florida State -1.3
A difference of 4.5 rating points x 9 = 41 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 44 points. We call this game 51-7 for the Seminoles. Result: 69-0 for the Seminoles. Our record this week for picking the winner is 47-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Stephen F. Austin (not rated in the top 250) at TCU -1.7
We call this game 55-7 for TCU. Final Score: The Horned Frogs won 67-7. Our record this week for picking the winner is 48-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Texas Southern (not rated in the top 250) at Arkansas State -3.5
We call this game 45-10 for Arkansas State. Result: Arkansas State, which upset Big 12 Texas A&M 18-14 last week, rolled over Texas Southern 83-10, leading 52-0 at halftime and having a phenomenal 12.4 to 3.2 net yards per play advantage. When one considers that ASU dominated Texas A&M 5.7 to 4.8 yards per play, one can see that this is a very strong team with the potential to be ranked among the top 50 in the nation. Last year, they were ranked 125th by SPRS. Our record this week for picking the winner is 49-10 and against the spread 21-21.

SE Louisiana -5.8 at Mississippi State -1.9
Mississippi State got ambushed by Louisiana Tech last week but that is not likely to happen here. A difference of 3.9 rating points x 9 = 35 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 38 points. We call this game 45-7 for Mississippi State. Final Score: 34-10 for Mississippi State. Our record this week for picking the winner is 50-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Murray State (not rated in the top 250) at Indiana -2.1
We call this game 48-3 for Indiana. Result: 45-3 for Indiana. Our record this week for picking the winner is 51-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Northwestern State (Louisiana) -6.0 at Baylor -4.0
A difference of 2.0 rating points x 9 = 18 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 21 points. We call this game 38-17 for Baylor. Final Score: 51-6 for Baylor. Our record this week for picking the winner is 52-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Montana State -4.6 at Kansas State -1.7
A difference of 2.9 rating points x 9 = 26 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 29 points. We call this game 45-17 for Kansas State. Result: 69-10 for Kansas State. This was a strange game in which the Wildcats were actually not running that well against Montanta State, with 43 rushes averaging 4.1 yards per carry. What really drove the score upward was the Kansas State defense, which turned one bungled punt, two blocked punts and returned fumble recovery into 4 quick touchdowns. Our record this week for picking the winner is 53-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Texas State -6.1 at SMU -5.2
A difference of 0.9 rating points x 9 = 8 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 11 points. We call this game 35-24 for SMU. Final Score: SMU won 47-36. Our record this week for picking the winner is 54-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Weber State -4.4 at Hawaii -0.1
A difference of 4.3 rating points x 9 = 39 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 42 points. We call this game 49-7 for Hawaii. Result: Hawaii won 36-17. Our record this week for picking the winner is 55-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Charleston Southern (not rated in top 250) at Wofford -3.1
We call it 45-9 for Wofford. Final Score: Wofford won 41-23. Our record this week for picking the winner is 56-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Drake (not rated in top 250) at Lehigh -5.7
We call it 31-14 for Lehigh. Result: Lehigh beat Drake 19-0. Our record this week for picking the winner is 57-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Maine -4.9 at Monmouth (not rated in top 250)
We call it 31-17 for Maine. Result: Maine beat Monmouth 21-17. Our record this week for picking the winner is 58-10 and against the spread 21-21.

UMass -1.5 at Holy Cross -.4.1
A difference of 2.6 rating points x 9 = 23 points minus 3 points for home team advantage = 20 points. We call this game 41-21 for UMass. Result: The game was won by UMass by 45-42. Our record this week for picking the winner is 59-10 and against the spread 21-21.

St. Cloud State - 5.6 at North Dakota -1.8
A difference of 3.8 rating points x 9 = 34 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 37 points. We call this game 40-13 for North Dakota. Final Score: 31-17 Our record this week for picking the winner is 60-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Elon -3.6 at Stony Brook -5.1
A difference of 1.5 rating points x 9 = 14 points minus 3 points for home team advantage = 11 points. We call this game 28-17 for Elon. Result: Elon won 30-20. Our record this week for picking the winner is 61-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Jacksonville (not rated in top 250) at Appalachian State -1.6
We call it 58-10 for Appalachian State. Final Score: The Mountaineers won 56-7. Our record this week for picking the winner is 62-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Stillman (not rated in top 250) at Jackson State - 4.4
We call it 45-20 for Jackson State. Result: 17-7 for Jackson State. Our record this week for picking the winner is 63-10 and against the spread 21-21.

South Dakota -2.5 at Northern Iowa -1.9
A difference of 0.6 rating points x 9 = 5 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 8 points. We call this game 31-23 for Northern Iowa. Final Score: 24-13 for Northern Iowa. Our record this week for picking the winner is 64-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Baker (not rated in top 250) at Tennessee-Martin -5.7
We call it 38-24 for Tennessee-Martin. Result: 56-0 for Tennessee-Martin. Our record this week for picking the winner is 65-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Gardner-Webb -4.4 at Tusculum -5.6
A difference of 1.2 rating points x 9 = 11 points minus 3 points for home team advantage = 8 points. We call this game 42-34 for Gardner-Webb. Final Score: 31-12 for Gardner-Webb. Our record this week for picking the winner is 66-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Rhode Island -5.8 at Fordham -5.9
A difference of 0.1 rating points x 9 = 1 point minus 3 points for home team advantage = 2 points. We call this game 27-25 for Fordham. Result: 16-0 for Fordham. Our record this week for picking the winner is 67-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Quincy (not rated in top 250) at Western Illinois -3.3
Last week, Western Illinois nearly toppled Arkansas, whereas Quincy (6-5 in 2007) lost last year to a comparably good Southern Illinois team 59-14, so that the result this year will surely be similar against Western Illinois. We call it for Western Illinois 52-13. Final Score: 63-0 for Western Illinois. Our record this week for picking the winner is 68-10 and against the spread 21-21.

Adams State (not rated in top 250) at Southern Utah -5.7
We call it 35-21 for Southern Utah. Result: 38-10 for Southern Utah. Our record this week for picking the winner is 69-10 and against the spread 21-21.

McNeese State -2.7 at Delta State -1.4
Delta State is one of the top-ranked Division II teams whereas McNeese State is one of the strongest FCS teams, barely losing to North Carolina last week. A difference of 1.3 rating points x 9 = 12 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 15 points. We have a hunch that our rating of Delta State may be a bit too good and that the two teams may be about even this year, but for now we will stick with our stats and call it Delta State 36-21 over McNeese State. Result: After calling an unprecedented (for us) 41 straight winners correctly in our prognostications above according to our NAYPPA based SPRS ratings, we finally have a mild upset of sorts, as a very strong McNeese State football team, who last weak nearly beat North Carolina, beat Delta State convincingly 52-27. Our record this week for picking the winner is 69-11 and against the spread 21-21.

Azusa Pacific (not rated in top 250) at San Diego -4.5
Last year Azusa lost to San Diego on 42-32 on the road. Azusa lost its first game this season to last year's NAIA champion Carroll (Montana) 41-22, who we rate at -3.4 and whose winning streak of 16 games is currently the longest in college football. We call it 38-24 for San Diego. Final Score: 38-10 for San Diego. Our record this week for picking the winner is 70-11 and against the spread 21-21.

Montana -3.7 at Cal Poly -3.7
These teams are even in terms of their SPRS ratings so that we give the game edge to Cal Poly by 3 points for its home field advantage, 38-35. Final Score: Montana edged Cal Poly 30-28 in spite of weaker yardage stats, with Montana gaining 316 yards in 66 plays for a 4.8 net average gain per play, whereas Cal Poly gained 421 yards in 65 plays for a 6.5 net average gain per play. Cal Poly should have won this game. Our record this week for picking the winner is 70-12 and against the spread 21-21.

Colgate -5.0 at Coastal Carolina (not rated in top 250)
Penn State beat Coastal Carolina 66-10 last week so that Colgate will be a a welcome relief, even though we call it Colgate 28 Coastal Carolina 21. Result: Colgate won 23-19. Our record this week for picking the winner is 71-12 and against the spread 21-21.

Indianapolis (not rated in top 250) at Grand Valley State -1.0
Last year the Lakers won 41-17. The SPRS rating for Grand Valley State may be a bit too good, but we call it 56-7 for Grand Valley State. Final score: Grand Valley by 49-21, with an 8.7 to 5.3 edge in net average yards per play. Our record this week for picking the winner is 72-12 and against the spread 21-21.

St. Xavier (Ill.) (not rated in top 250) at Wisconsin-Whitewater -5.1
This game matches an NAIA quarterfinalist from last year (St. Xavier lost to Sioux Falls 49-7) with the NCAA Division III champion. We call it for Wisconsin -Whitewater 41-20. Result: Whitewater won 24-9, although the Warhawks were outgained in total offense yardage 340 yards (5.0 yards per play) to 219 yards (3.4 yards per play). Our record this week for picking the winner is 72-12 and against the spread 21-21.