College Football Game Prognostications and Results - 2008 Season - Week 5

Update: It was an absolutely wild weekend in college football as nine ranked Division I-A FBS teams lost, including Southern Cal, Georgia and Florida. As a result, we also had our prognosticating problems, with a record this week of 39-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread. For the season we are 337-87 in calling the game winner and 98-97-3 against the spread.
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After a strong week of prognostication, in which we beat the spread 26-17-1, we now go into week 5 with presumably more information available, so that for the first time this season, we rely solely on the 2008 football stats to make our predictions for the games for which odds are made (the line, the spread). The odds used below are those posted at Yahoo Odds on Monday, September 22, 2008. The unique system used for game prognostications is SPRS, which uses primarily our own derived NAYPPA system (based on yards per play stats from cfbstats.com) plus the Massey Ratings strength of schedule (SoS) for making college football predictions, although we handle SoS differently here than for a full season. Thus far this year, for Division I-A FBS football, the median (of 120 teams) net yards per play gained on offense is 5.5 whereas the median net yards per play allowed on defense is 5.1. In the year 2007 those medians were 5.4 and 5.3 respectively for the full season. Unless otherwise noted, the stats in parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and net average yards per play allowed on defense thus far this football season. Each point of SPRS rating advantage = 9 points on the scoreboard (see the 2007 final rankings). We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The Tulane Green Wave (New Orleans, Louisiana) (4.6, 4.3, SoS=11) is favored at home by 17 points over the Southern Methodist (SMU) Mustangs (Dallas, Texas) (5.5, 6.7, SoS=25). We calculate a current total 1.8 SPRS rating point advantage for Tulane, so that 1.8 x 9 = 16 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 33-14 for Tulane.
Result: 34-27 for Tulane as Andre Anderson ran for 219 yards. The Green Wave raced out to a 31-7 halftime lead and then nearly frittered away the game in the second half. Tulane averaged 7.2 yards per play to SMU's 5.5 for a NAYPPA of 1.7 and thus nearly matching the previous SPRS rating point advantage of 1.8, but failing to capitalize on that on the scoreboard, which generally shows coaching weakness.
Our record this week is 1-0 in picking the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

The USC Trojans (6.5, 3.3, SoS=5), Los Angeles, California, are favored on the road by 23 1/2 points over the Oregon State Beavers (5.5, 5.2, SoS=61), Corvallis, Oregon. Southern Cal currently leads the nation in net yards per play allowed on defense with 3.3. Our current rating calculation makes USC 4.3 rating points better than Oregon State. 4.3 x 9 = 39 points minus the 3 point home field advantage for Oregon State = 36 points.
Our call: 45-9 for USC.
Result: 27-21 for Oregon State against the top-ranked Trojans. It was quite an upset as Oregon State led 21-0 at the half against a USC team that could get nothing moving on offense in the first half and was unable to stop the Beavers on the ground or in the air. Sometimes the best team does not win in college football, as USC averaged 6.1 yards per play to Oregon State's 4.7, showing a clear dominance which did not surface on the scoreboard due to two costly Southern Cal turnovers.
Our record this week is 1-1 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (Cookeville, Tennessee) at Central Methodist Eagles Fayette, Missouri.
Our call: 49-7 for the Golden Eagles.
Result: Tennessee Tech won 47-19, holding Central Methodist to only 8 first downs.
Our record this week is 2-1 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (Itta Bena, Mississippi) at Alabama State Hornets (Montgomery, Alabama).
These teams appear to be about even, so we go with the home team.
Our call: 30-27 for Alabama State.
Result: Alabama State completely dominated this game, scoring 33 points in the second quarter and winning 47-7 while holding Missippi Valley State to 6 first downs and 102 yards total offense.
Our record this week is 3-1 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Friday, September 26, 2008

The Louisville Cardinals (5.4, 4.2, SoS=21) (Louisville, Kentucky) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Connecticut Huskies (5.9, 4.5, SoS=63) (Storrs, Connecticut). The SPRS ratings last year had these two teams even, and a calculation of the current rating gives Louisville a .7 rating point advantage = .7 x 9 = 6 scoring points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 points. Through the Ryder Cup in Louisville, the city is on a sports high, and we give the nod to the Cardinals by 9.
Our call: 30-21 for Louisville.
Result: Louisville rolled up 508 yards total offense to 279 for the Huskies, averaging 7.2 yards gained per play to 4.5 for Connecticut and still lost 27-21 on a late interception for a TD. The Cardinals constantly stranded near the Huskies 30-yard line, suggesting that the playcalling and the game management by the coaches was dismal as the team approached the red zone.
Our record this week is 3-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.

Hofstra (Long Island, New York) at Stony Brook (Long Island, New York).
Stony Brook disappointed against Brown last week, being held to only 7 first downs.
Our call: 24-9 for Hofstra.
Result: 43-3 for Hofstra.
Our record this week is 4-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Auburn (5.0, 3.9, SoS=72) (Auburn, Alabama) is favored at home by 6 points over Tennessee (5.6, 4.3, SoS=133) (Knoxville, Tennessee). Our current rating calculation puts Auburn at a 1.6 point rating advantage x 9 = 14 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 17 scoreboard points.
Our call: 31-14 for Auburn.
Result: Auburn won 14-12 as both teams averaged an abysmal 3.4 yards on offense.
Our record this week is 5-2 in picking the winner and 0-4 against the spread.

The Ball State Cardinals (7.4, 5.5, SoS=102) (Muncie, Indiana) are favored at home by 17 points over the Kent State Golden Flashes (5.6, 6.3, SoS=134) (Kent, Ohio). The current SPRS rating calculation makes Ball State 3.8 rating points better than Kent State x 9 = 34 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 37 scoreboard points.
Our call: 51-14 for Ball State.
Result: Ball State won 41-20.
Our record this week is 6-2 in picking the winner and 1-4 against the spread.

The Bowling Green State University Falcons (4.5, 5.3, SoS=1) (Bowling Green, Ohio) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Wyoming Cowboys (4.2, 4.8, SoS=75) (Laramie, Wyoming). The current SPRS ratings calculation makes Bowling Green 7 points better minus the 3-point home field advantage for the Cowboys = 4 scoreboard points.
Our call: 24-20 for Bowling Green.
Result: Bowling Green won 45-16.
Our record this week is 7-2 in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.

The California Bears (6.7, 4.1, SoS=104) (Berkeley, California) are favored at home by 25 points over the Colorado State Rams (5.5, 5.8, SoS=145) (Fort Collins, Colorado). The current SPRS rating for Cal is 3.7 rating points better than the Rams x 9 = 24 scoreboard points plus the 3-point home advantage = 27 scoreboard points.
Our call: 41-14 for Cal.
Result: Cal won 42-7.
Our record this week is 8-2 in picking the winner and 3-4 against the spread.

The Central Michigan Chippewas (5.3, 6.5, SoS=45) (Mount Pleasant, Michigan) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Buffalo Bulls (State University of New York at Buffalo)(5.6, 6.1, SoS=29) (Buffalo, New York). The current SPRS rating for Buffalo is .7 rating points x 9 = 6 points better than that of the Chippewas minus the home field advantage makes Buffalo our favorite by 3 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Buffalo.
Result: Winning and losing is sometimes indeed just a matter of inches. As time expired, the Buffalo 46-yard field goal attempt hit the right upright as Central Michigan thus won 27-25.
Our record this week is 8-3 in picking the winner and 4-4 against the spread.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (6.2, 5.4, SoS=136) (Cincinnati, Ohio) are favored on the road by 10 points over the Akron Zips (5.8, 5.6, SoS= 36) (Akron, Ohio). Akron lost by 21 to then 13th-ranked Wisconsin and Cincinnati lost by 26 to then 4th-ranked Oklahoma. That makes both teams about even.
Our call: 31-30 for Cincinnati.
Result: Cincinnati won 17-15.
Our record this week is 9-3 in picking the winner and 5-4 against the spread.

The Clemson Tigers (6.4, 4.8, SoS=69) (Clemson, South Carolina) are favored at home by 11 1/2 points over the University of Maryland Terrapins (6.2, 5.2, SoS=155) (College Park, Maryland).
Our call: 34-20 for Clemson.
Result: Maryland won 20-17.
Our record this week is 9-4 in picking the winner and 5-5 against the spread.

The Duke Blue Devils (5.1, 5.6, SoS=35) (Durham, North Carolina) are favored at home by 7 points over the Virginia Cavaliers (3.8, 6.1, SoS=2) (Charlottesville, Virginia). Virginia has no offense to speak of this year and has a host of serious problems.
Our call: 34-21 for Duke.
Result: Duke won 31-3.
Our record this week is 10-4 in picking the winner and 6-5 against the spread.

The East Carolina Pirates (5.6, 4.6, SoS=17) (Greenville, North Carolina) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the Houston Cougars (6.4, 6.1, SoS=120) (Houston, Texas). The Pirates fell to NC State last week but should rebound well at home against the Cougars.
Our call: 38-20 for East Carolina.
Result: Houston beat East Carolina 41-24. Houston averaged 7.4 to 4.3 yards per play as the Cougars put up a massive 621 yards total offense against the Pirates 275.
Our record this week is 10-5 in picking the winner and 6-6 against the spread.

The Florida Gators (5.8, 3.5, SoS=147) (Gainesville, Florida) are favored at home by 23 1/2 points over Mississippi Rebels (6.5, 4.3, SoS=46) (Oxford, Mississippi). Our ratings make Florida about a 1.2 rating point favorite x 9 = 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 14 scoreboard points.
Our call: 34-20 for Florida.
Result: Florida lost 31-30 as Houston Nutt in his fourth game as head coach led the Rebels to a signature win. The Gators rolled up 443 total yards as opposed to the Mississippi 325 but lost three costly fumbles.
Our record this week is 10-6 in picking the winner and 7-6 against the spread.

The Florida State Seminoles (6.7, 3.5, SoS=89) (Tallahassee, Florida) are favored at home by 6 points over the Colorado Buffaloes (5.0, 4.7, SoS=84) (Boulder, Colorado). The Seminoles turned the ball over 7 times against Wake Forest last week (5 interceptions and 2 fumbles), as the offense failed to score a TD and the Seminoles lost ignominiously at home 12-3, completing only 12 of 36 passes. On paper, Florida State should win easily, also because of a very strong defense, but the QBs are perhaps weak. Moreover, the Buffs have allowed no more yards passing this year than Wake Forest, so that Florida State may be in for another rough day through the air. Last year Florida State won 16-6 at Colorado, but the Buffs are better this year, coming off a 17-14 win over then 21st-ranked West Virginia, but did not have to do much pass defense. This is a very tough game to call as far as any prognosticated final score is concerned. Too many ifs. We go with the home team and assume they will get back on track.
Our call: 24-17 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles won 39-21.
Our record this week is 11-6 in picking the winner and 8-6 against the spread.

The Fresno State Bulldogs (6.3, 5.6, SoS=69) (Fresno, California) are favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over the UCLA Bruins (3.8, 5.4, SoS=58) (Los Angeles, California). UCLA ranks 118th out of 120 teams in Division I-A FBS in terms of yards per play on offense. You can not win if you can not score. Here is some related trivia. UCLA is located in Westwood which adjoins the "platinum triangle" of Beverly Hills, Holmby Hills and Bel Air, where a plan for a community of grandiose estates was first formulated by merchant Arthur Letts Sr., who owned a good share of the former Wolfskill Farm, from which UCLA and the residential communities were carved. Arthur Letts Jr. built a personal mansion which today is better known as the Playboy mansion of Hugh Heffner. The idea of grand estates on the Letts property was a full success and many mansions have served as homes to world famous Hollywood personalities as also to merchants and other famous personages, such as former US Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. The West Gate of Bel Air at Bellagio Road and Sunset Boulevard is opposite an entrance for UCLA. In spite of all that pomp and circumstance, the team from Fresno appears to hold the edge in this football game, with an SPRS rating that suggests about a 2 TD victory minus the UCLA home field advantage.
Our call: 28-17 for Fresno State
Result: Fresno State won 36-31.
Our record this week is 12-6 in picking the winner and 8-7 against the spread.

The University of Georgia Bulldogs (Dogs) (7.1, 4.4, SoS=32) (Athens, Georgia) are favored at home by 6 points over the University of Alabama Crimson Tide (5.9, 3.8, SoS=40) (, ) (Tuscaloosa, Alabama). For this season, Georgia has a .7 SPRS rating advantage, which translates into 6 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 scoreboard points.
Our call: 26-17 for Georgia.
Result: Alabama pummeled Georgia in the first half to take a 31-0 lead and then cruised to a 41-30 win.
Our record this week is 12-7 in picking the winner and 8-8 against the spread.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (5.9, 4.1, SoS=57) (Iowa City (Coralville), Iowa) are favored at home by 8 points over the Northwestern Wildcats (5.2, 4.2, SoS=83) (Evanston, Illinois). The stats clearly favor Iowa by a rating advantage of about 9 scoreboard points plus 3 points home field advantage = 12 scoreboard points.
Our call: 29-17 for Iowa.
Result: Northwestern won 22-17 as the Hawkeyes lost 4 fumbles. Part of coaching responsibility is to teach football players how to hang on to the ball.
Our record this week is 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

The Kansas State Wildcats (6.5, 4.5, SoS=108) (Manhattan, Kansas) are favored at home by 20 points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (ULL) (6.4, 6.2, SoS=94) (Lafayette, Louisiana). By SPRS rating Kansas State is about a 16-point favorite plus 3-point home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Kansas State.
Result: Kansas State won 45-37 in an unimpressive win in which the Ragin' Cajuns put up more yardage on offense.
Our record this week is 13-8 in picking the winner and 8-10 against the spread.

The Kentucky Wildcats (4.7, 4.1, SoS=97) (Lexington, Kentucky) are favored at home by 22 1/2 points over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4.6, 5.5, SoS=124) (Bowling Green, Kentucky). Current SPRS ratings favor Kentucky by 19 points plus the home field advantage = 22 points.
Our call: 29-7 for Kentucky.
Result: Kentucky won 41-3.
Our record this week is 14-8 in picking the winner and 8-11 against the spread.

The Louisiana State (LSU) Tigers (6.6, 4.0, SoS=121) (Baton Rouge, Louisiana) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the Mississippi State University Bulldogs (4.6, 4.9, SoS=55) (Starkville, Mississippi). By current SPRS ratings, LSU has about a 20-point scoreboard advantage, plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 23 points.
Our call: 40-17 for LSU.
Result: LSU won 34-24.
Our record this week is 15-8 in picking the winner and 9-11 against the spread.

The opening line for the Memphis Tigers (5.8, 6.2, SoS=100) (Memphis, Tennessee) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7.5, 4.5, SoS=158) (Jonesboro, Arkansas) was zero. If Memphis can beat this Arkansas State team, it would be a surprise to this prognosticator, who sees an exceptional team at Jonesboro this year, beating Texas A&M to start out the season.
By SPRS ratings, Arkansas State looks like a 3 TD favorite, minus the Memphis home field advantage = 18 points.
Our call: 38-20 for Arkansas State.
Result: Memphis won 29-17.
Our record this week is 15-9 in picking the winner and 9-12 against the spread.

The Miami, Florida Hurricanes (5.3, 4.6, SoS=135) (Miami, Florida) are favored at home by 7 points over the North Carolina Tar Heels (6.1, 4.9, SoS=68) (Chapel Hill, North Carolina). By SPRS ratings, North Carolina looks like the favorite by 11 points minus the Miami 3-point home field advantage = 8 points.
Our call: 31-23 for North Carolina.
Result: North Carolina won 28-24.
Our record this week is 16-9 in picking the winner and 10-12 against the spread.

The Michigan State Spartans (5.2, 5.2, SoS=119) (East Lansing, Michigan) are favored on the road by 9 points over the Indiana Hoosiers (6.0, 4.9, SoS=113) (Bloomington, Indiana). By SPRS ratings, Indiana is favored by 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage for Indiana = 14 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Indiana.
Result: Michigan State won 42-29.
Our record this week is 16-10 in picking the winner and 10-13 against the spread.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.0, 4.9, SoS=27) (Lincoln, Nebraska) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Virginia Tech (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) Hokies (4.5, 5.5, SoS=14) (Blacksburg, Virginia). Even though the Huskers are undefeated this year, as written by Robin Washut at Huskers Illustrated, the Huskers give average grade after 3 games. Virginia Tech this year - as last year - has been weak offensively and not as good on defense as is their custom, so that they are averaging 272 yards per game on offense and giving up 328 yards per game on defense, so that it is remarkable that they have achieved their current 3-1 record against some good opposition. On paper, when comparing offensive and defensive yards per play stats, Nebraska has an SPRS 3.1 rating advantage x 9 = 28 points plus the 3-point home team advantage = 31 scoreboard points. Unless the Husker offense suddenly hits new highs, however, we look for a potentially closer game than that and, as a Husker alum, remain worried if the Huskers are really good enough to win this game, but we will, for now, go with the stats in calling the game score.
Our call: 38-7 for Nebraska.
Result: Our worst fears about the Huskers were realized as Nebraska underperformed both on offense and defense, allowing 377 total net yards to a team having virtually no offense and losing ignominiously at home 35-30, while rushing for a meagre 55 yards, as the passing game sputtered again. The Nebraska playcalling was no better than under preceding coach Callahan as the Huskers had three series of downs beginning with two unsuccessful rushing plays against a defense that was very strong against the rush, signalling the 3rd down pass and ending in punts, one with disastrous consequences:

1st-10, Neb5 10:05 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, Neb10 9:26 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
3rd-2, Neb14 8:45 J. Ganz incomplete pass down the middle
4th-2, Neb14 8:41 Neb blocked punt attempt by D. Titchener. Recovered by D. Titchener. Safety

Nebraska - 7:03
1st-10, Neb39 7:03 R. Helu rushed to the left for no gain
2nd-10, Neb39 6:24 J. Ganz rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-6, Neb43 5:55 Neb committed 5 yard penalty
4th-11, Neb38 5:55 D. Titchener punt, no return

Nebraska - 10:17
1st-10, Neb23 10:17 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, Neb26 10:00 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 4 yard loss
3rd-11, Neb22 9:00 J. Ganz sacked by O. Martin
4th-20, Neb13 8:30 D. Titchener punt. V. Harris returned punt for 22 yards

We became used to that kind of playcalling under former head coach Callahan. One might consider looking at the University of Tulsa game films and the offense that Gus Malzahn runs there. Why is a top offensive coach like that not running the Cornhusker offense?

Are the Huskers competitive again? We doubt it. The Cornhuskers still have a VERY long way to go to rejoin the football elite corps. Accordingly, Husker fans should not place great expectations in the rest of the forthcoming seaon, which may be marked by some blowout losses when playing top teams.

Our record this week is 16-11 in picking the winner and 10-14 against the spread.

The New Mexico Lobos (4.7., 5.3, SoS=45) (Albuquerque, New Mexico) are favored on the road by 4 points over the New Mexico State Aggies (5.2., 6.5, SoS=20) (Las Cruces, New Mexico). By SPRS ratings, these teams are even this year. Last year New Mexico won at home 44-34. The Aggies have a weak defense which should not hurt them that much against the subpar offense of the Lobos. We go with the home team.
Our call: 31-30 for New Mexico State.
Result: New Mexico scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter to win 35-24.
Our record this week is 16-12 in picking the winner and 10-15 against the spread.

The Northern Illinois University Huskies (6.4, 5.0, SoS=80) (DeKalb, Illinois) are favored on the road by 6 points over the Eastern Michigan Eagles (5.9, 5.9, SoS=154) (Ypsilanti, Michigan). Last year, SPRS ranked these two teams even, and Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois on the road 21-19. This year, Northern Illinois would appear to have the stronger team.
Our call: 34-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result: Northern Illinois won 37-0.
Our record this week is 17-12 in picking the winner and 11-15 against the spread.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4.6, 5.1, SoS=122) (Notre Dame (South Bend), Indiana) are favored at home by 2 1/2 points over the Purdue Boilermakers (5.4, 5.1, SoS=70) (West Lafayette, Indiana). Last year the Irish lost at Purdue 33-19 and the current season stats would make Purdue the favorite again this year due to the weakness of the Fighting Irish offense.
Our call: 31-24 for Purdue.
Result: Notre Dame won 38-21, even though the stats for the game were almost identical for both teams, but Purdue wilted in the second half.
Our record this week is 17-13 in picking the winner and 11-16 against the spread.

The Ohio State Buckeyes (4.8, 4.3, SoS=47) (Columbus, Ohio) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Minnesota Gophers (6.1, 5.2, SoS=99) (Twin Cities, Minnesota). We do not think the Buckeye offense is good enough to warrant such a large spread. By SPRS, the Buckeyes do not have much more than 3 points of a home field advantage.
Our call: 24-21 for Ohio State.
Result: Ohio State won 34-21.
Our record this week is 18-13 in picking the winner and 12-16 against the spread.

The Oklahoma Sooners (7.0, 3.6, SoS=129) (Norman, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs (5.3, 3.4, SoS=110) (Fort Worth, Texas). By SPRS ratings, Oklahoma has a 1.3 rating advantage x 9 = 12 points plus 3 points for the home field = 15 points.
Our call: 28-13 for Oklahoma.
Result: Oklahoma won 35-10.
Our record this week is 19-13 in picking the winner and 12-17 against the spread.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (7.9, 4.2, SoS=181) (Stillwater, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 16 1/2 points over the Troy Trojans (5.7, 3.5, SoS=127) (Troy, Alabama). We think that Troy will be able to slow down the Cowboy offense a bit, as the current SPRS ratings give Oklahoma State a 9-point edge plus the 3-point home field advantage = 12 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Oklahoma State.
Result: A Troy team that had played respectably 28-10 against Ohio State was blown out of the stadium by Oklahoma State 55-24, who led 35-10 at the half.
Our record this week is 20-13 in picking the winner and 12-18 against the spread.

The Oregon University Ducks (6.4, 4.5, SoS=12) (Eugene, Oregon) are favored on the road by 19 1/2 points over the Washington State Cougars (4.6, 6.7, SoS=91) (Pullman, Washington). In the Oregon loss to Boise State, 37-32, after a concussion to the starting QB and an ineffectual injury-hampered replacement, freshman Darron Thomas had his redshirt pulled and led the Ducks from a 37-13 4th quarter deficit to a near win. If that performance is indicative that Thomas may start at QB and if he continues to play like that, Oregon may even become dangerous for USC. Hence, we look for a big offensive showing against the Cougars, as the SPRS ratings make the Ducks about a 6 to 7 TD favorite.
Our call: 52-7 for Oregon.
Result: Oregon won 63-14 as Jeremiah Masoli returned from his concussion in the previous game to lead the Ducks.
Our record this week is 21-13 in picking the winner and 13-18 against the spread.

The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) Nittany Lions (7.4, 3.5, SoS=132) (State College, Pennsylvania) are favored at home by 14 points over the Illinois University Fighting Illini (6.2, 5.4, SoS=67) (Urbana-Champaign, Illinois). In the Big 10, Ohio State has gotten all the hype but this Penn State team appears to be extremely strong. By SPRS ratings, Penn State is a 23-point favorite plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 26 points.
Our call: 40-14 for Penn State.
Result: 38-24 for Penn State.
Our record this week is 22-13 in picking the winner and 13-18-1 against the spread.

The Pittsburgh Panthers (4.7, 4.6, SoS=11) (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Syracuse Orange (4.9, 6.5, SoS=42) (Syracuse, New York). The Orange football fortunes have fallen on hard times. SPRS gives Pittsburgh a 2.6 rating advantage x 9 = 23 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 20 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pittsburgh scored 18 unanswered points in the 4th quarter as the Panthers rebounded from a 24-13 deficit to save the win 34-24.
Our record this week is 23-13 in picking the winner and 13-19-1 against the spread.

The Rice University Owls (5.4, 6.8, SoS=27) (Houston, Texas) are favored at home by 19 points over the University of North Texas Mean Green (4.4, 6.8, SoS=22) (Denton, Texas). By SPRS, Rice has an advantage of about 11 points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 14 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Rice.
Result: The Rice offense ran wild in winning 77-20 as the Owls led 56-20 at the half. The Mean Green committed 6 turnovers to zero for Rice.
Our record this week is 24-13 in picking the winner and 13-20-1 against the spread.

The San Diego State Aztecs (4.6, 5.9, SoS=74) (San Diego, California) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the University of Idaho Vandals (4.8, 6.5, SoS=76) (Moscow, Idaho). By SPRS the Aztecs have a .8 rating advantage x 9 = 7 points plus the home field advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 31-21 for San Diego State.
Result: San Diego State won 45-17.
Our record this week is 25-13 in picking the winner and 13-21-1 against the spread.

The South Carolina Gamecocks (5.1, 4.0, SoS=6) (Columbia, South Carolina) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the UAB Blazers (6.2, 7.8, SoS=208) (Birmingham, Alabama). Even without taking strength of schedule into account, the Gamecocks are 24-point favorites by SPRS plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 27 points.
Our call: 44-17 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina won 26-13.
Our record this week is 26-13 in picking the winner and 13-22-1 against the spread.

The South Florida Bulls (6.0, 3.9, SoS=115) (Tampa, Florida) are favored on the road by 8 1/2 points over the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4.3, 5.7, SoS=16) (Raleigh, North Carolina). By SPRS, the Bulls hold the advantage by 24 points less 3 points home field advantage = 21 points.
Our call: 28-7 for South Florida.
Result: South Florida won 41-10.
Our record this week is 27-13 in picking the winner and 14-22-1 against the spread.

The Texas Longhorns (7.2, 4.8, SoS=106) (Austin, Texas) are favored at home by 28 points over the Arkansas Razorbacks (5.8, 5.3, SoS=62) (Fayetteville, Arkansas). By SPRS, Texas has 1.8 x 9 = 16-point rating edge plus 3 points for the home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Texas.
Result: Texas beat Arkansas 52-10.
Our record this week is 28-13 in picking the winner and 14-23-1 against the spread.

The Texas A&M Aggies (4.7, 5.7, SoS=93) (College Station, Texas) are favored at home by 28 1/2 points over the Army Black Knights (3.9, 5.5, SoS=65) (West Point, New York). By SPRS, Texas A&M has an advantage of only about 4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points so that we call it for the Aggies by 1 TD.
Our call: 28-21 for Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M won 21-17.
Our record this week is 29-13 in picking the winner and 15-23-1 against the spread.

The Toledo Rockets (6.0, 5.6, SoS=107) (Toledo, Ohio) are favored at home by 18 points over the Florida International University Golden Panthers (3.2, 5.4, SoS=8) (University Park, Miami, Florida). By SPRS we give Toledo a 14-point advantage plus the 3-point home advantage = 17 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Toledo.
Result: In a stunning turnaround of expectations, Florida International won 35-16, due primarily to 4 Toledo turnovers.
Our record this week is 29-14 in picking the winner and 16-23-1 against the spread.

The University of Central Florida (UCF) Knights (4.0, 5.1, SoS=56) (Orlando, Florida) are favored on the road by 5 points over the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) Miners (4.9, 6.6, SoS=14) (El Paso, Texas). UCF has a 4-point rating advantage minus the UTEP home field advantage of 3 points makes it a one-point game by SPRS.
Our call: 28-27 for UCF.
Result: UTEP won 58-13 in a truly unexpected blowout of UCF.
Our record this week is 29-15 in picking the winner and 17-23-1 against the spread.

The University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) Rebels (5.5, 5.7, SoS=7) (Las Vegas, Nevada) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Nevada Wolf Pack (5.9, 6.5, SoS=28) (Reno, Nevada). By SPRS UNLV holds about a 7-point advantage plus the 3 points home team advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 41-31 for UNLV.
Result: Nevada won 49-27.
Our record this week is 29-16 in picking the winner and 17-24-1 against the spread.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4.5, 4.4, SoS=36) (Winston-Salem, North Carolina) are favored at home by 16 points over the Navy Midshipmen (7.0, 6.2, SoS=90) (Annapolis, Maryland). Normal stats do not seem to work well in assessing the Wake Forest football team. On paper, by the stats, SPRS rating makes Wake Forest about a 6-point favorite. How will the Demon Deacons do against the Navy running game? Last year at Navy, they won 44-24, in part due to 3 fumbles by the Midshipmen.
Our call: 30-24 for Wake Forest.
Result: Navy won 24-17.
Our record this week is 29-17 in picking the winner and 18-24-1 against the spread.

The University of Washington Huskies (4.2, 7.4, SoS=3) (Seattle, Washington) are favored at home by 4 points over the Stanford University Cardinal (4.5, 5.1, SoS=37) (Stanford, Palo Alto, California). The Huskies are 119th in defense by yards per play, in part because their first three opponents were Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma, all ranked teams. The aggressive Stanford defense sacked the San Jose quarterback EIGHT times in the last game (compare that to only two sacks by the Huskers against the same team), so the Washington passing attack will have its hands full. Being a Stanford alum, we see things going the way of the Cardinal, although the strong Washington performance against BYU is a cause for concern. By SPRS, Stanford is favored by about two TDs.
Our call: 37-23 for Stanford.
Result: Stanford won 35-28.
Our record this week is 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.

The West Virginia Mountaineers (5.4, 4.9, SoS=15) (Morgantown, West Virginia) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Marshall University Thundering Herd (6.0, 5.5, SoS=64) (Huntington, West Virginia). By SPRS, the Mountaineers are about a 1 TD favorite, minus the Marshall home field advantage = 4 points. Marshall has shown that it can be beaten in the air, but its rushing defense appears to be good, so that West Virginia has its work cut out for it.
Our call: 28-24 for West Virginia.
Result: West Virginia won 27-3 as Marshall was unable to stop the run.
Our record this week is 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.

The Western Michigan Broncos (6.6, 5.8, SoS=59) (Kalamazoo, Michigan) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Temple University Owls (4.6, 5.5, SoS=35) (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). By SPRS, the Broncos are about 10-point favorites minus the Temple home field advantage of 3 points = 7 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Western Michigan.
Result: Western Michigan won 7-3.
Our record this week is 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-25-1 against the spread.

The University of Wisconsin Badgers (6.2, 4.9, SoS=21) (Madison, Wisconsin) are favored on the road by 7 points over the University of Michigan Wolverines (4.7, 4.2, SoS=31) (Ann Arbor, Michigan). The SPRS ratings make the Badgers the favorites by 12 minus the home field advantage of 3 = 9 points. Since we have Wolverine grads in the family, however, we look for improved Michigan play and the upset win.
Our call: 24-23 for Michigan.
Result: Michigan won 27-25.
Our record this week is 33-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The University of Rhode Island Rams (Kingston, Rhode Island) at the Boston College Eagles (4.6, 4.2, SoS=98) (Newton, Massachusetts).
Our call: 42-14 for Boston College.
Result: Boston College won 42-0.
Our record this week is 34-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Virginia Military Institute (VMI) Keydets (Lexington, Virginia) at the University of Ohio Bobcats (4.8, 4.5, SoS=19) (Athens, Ohio).
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.
Result: Ohio won 51-31.
Our record this week is 35-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Morgan State University Golden Bears (Baltimore, Maryland) at the Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, Scarlet Knights (5.5, 6.3, SoS=41) (New Brunswick, Piscataway, New Jersey).
Our call: 49-7 for Rutgers.
Result: Rutgers won 38-0.
Our record this week is 36-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Central Arkansas Bears (Conway, Arkansas) at the University of Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8.4, 5.7, SoS=193) (Tulsa, Oklahoma):
Our call: 55-24 for Tulsa.
Result: Tulsa won 62-34.
Our record this week is 37-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Weber State Wildcats (Ogden, Utah) at the University of Utah Utes (5.7, 3.5, SoS=18) (Salt Lake City, Utah). Last year Weber State lost 56-7 to Boise State, and this game may not be much different to a similarly strong opponent.
Our call: 51-7 for Utah.
Result: Utah won 37-21.
Our record this week is 38-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

The University of Hawaii Warriors (4.8, 5.3, SoS=111) (Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii) are favored at home by 3 points over the San Jose State University Spartans (4.9, 4.7, SoS=86) (San Jose, California). By SPRS current ratings, we favor San Jose State by 10 points minus the Hawaii 3-point home field advantage.
Our call: 30-23 for San Jose State.
Result: San Jose State beat Hawaii 20-17.
Our record this week is 39-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.


Crossposted to LawPundit.