Monday, September 29, 2008

College Football Game Prognostications and Results - 2008 Season - Week 6

UPDATE: We had a good prediction week this week, as we were 38-15 in predicting winners and 29-21-1 against the spread (the odds line). For the season we are 375-102 in calling the game winner and 127-118-4 against the spread.

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The odds used below are those posted at Yahoo Sports on Monday, September 29, 2008. The unique system used for game prognostications is SPRS, which uses primarily our own derived NAYPPA system (based on yards per play stats from cfbstats.com) plus the Massey Ratings strength of schedule (SoS) for making college football predictions, although we handle SoS differently here than for a full season. Thus far this year, for Division I-A FBS football, the median (of 120 teams) net yards per play gained on offense is 5.5 whereas the median net yards per play allowed on defense is 5.3. In the year 2007 those medians were 5.4 and 5.3 respectively for the full season. Unless otherwise noted, the stats in parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and net average yards per play allowed on defense thus far this football season. Each point of SPRS rating advantage = 9 points on the scoreboard (see the 2007 final rankings). We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Florida Atlantic (5.5, 5.9, SoS=22) at Middle Tennessee State (4.8, 5.5, SoS=50)
We call the game for Middle Tennessee State: 28-27
Result: Middle Tennessee won 14-13 on a 32-yard TD pass by Joe Craddock to Malcolm Beyah as time expired, followed by the extra point by kicker Alan Gendreau . The Owls averaged 5.3 net yards per play to 5.0 for the Blue Raiders, so that the win was primarily due to the home field advantage.
This week, we are 1-0 in predicting winners and 0-0 against the spread (the odds line).

Wednesday, October 1, 2008


Boise State (7.0, 4.4, SoS=63) is favored at home by 21 1/2 points over Louisiana Tech (4.7, 5.9, SoS=75).
We call the game for the Broncos: 47-9.
Result: Boise State won 38-3.
This week, we are 2-0 in predicting winners and 1-0 against the spread (the odds line).

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Memphis (5.9, 6.1, SoS=96) is favored on the road by 5 points over UAB (5.8, 7.0, SoS=127).
We call the game for Memphis: 35-24.
Result: Memphis beat UAB 33-30,but the losing Blazers actually gained more total yards.
This week, we are 3-0 in predicting winners and 1-1 against the spread (the odds line).

South Florida (6.1, 4.0, SoS=89) is favored at home by 13 1/2 points over Pittsburgh (4.9, 4.8, SoS=49).
We call the game for the Bulls: 26-14.
Result: The Panthers upset 1oth-ranked South Florida 26-21,. gaining 129 yards more on total offense.
This week, we are 3-1 in predicting winners and 2-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Utah (5.8, 4.0, SoS=35) is favored at home by 10 1/2 points over Oregon State (5.3, 5.4, SoS=14).
We call the game for Utah: 24-23.
Result: The Utes won 31-28 on a 37-yard field goal by Louis Sakoda in the last second of the game, but the Beavers actually put up the better game stats, outgaining the Utes by 1.5 yards per play.
This week, we are 4-1 in predicting winners and 3-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Friday, October 3, 2008


Brigham Young (6.5, 4.7, SoS=107) is favored on the road by 28 1/2 points over Utah State (5.2, 5.9, SoS=13).
We call the game for BYU: 48-0.
Result: After leading 34-0 going into the 4th quarter, BYU gave up 14 points in the final stanza to win 34-14.
This week, we are 5-1 in predicting winners and 3-2 against the spread (the odds line).

Cincinnati (6.2, 5.2, SoS=80) is favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over Marshall (5.3, 5.7, SoS=85).
We call the game for Cincinnati: 30-20.
Result: Cincinnati won 33-10, putting up an advantage of 5.0 to 3.9 net yards per play.
This week, we are 6-1 in predicting winners and 4-2 against the spread (the odds line).

Saturday, October 4, 2008


Penn State (7.2, 3.9, SoS=99) is favored on the road by 12 points over Purdue (5.7, 5.4, SoS=64).
We call the game for Penn State: 38-17
Result: The Nittany Lions won 20-6, putting up an advantage of 6.5 to 4.0 net yards per play.
This week, we are 7-1 in predicting winners and 5-2 against the spread (the odds line).

Michigan State (5.5, 5.5, SoS=65) is favored at home by 8 points over Iowa (6.1, 4.3, SoS=31).
We call the game for Iowa: 31-21
Result: Trailing 16-13 with 2:16 left in the game and a 4th and 1 on the Spartan 21-yard line, Iowa elected to go for the 1st down rather than kick the field goal. That is a coaching staff not playing the football percentages. Michigan State won 16-13.
This week, we are 7-2 in predicting winners and 6-2 against the spread (the odds line).

Minnesota (5.7, 5.5, SoS=77) is favored at home by 7 1/2 points over Indiana (6.1, 5.3, SoS=84).
We call the game for Minnesota: 32-31
Result: Joel Monroe kicked a 38-yard field goal with 26 seconds left in the game to ice the victory 16-7 for the Golden Gophers.
This week, we are 8-2 in predicting winners and 7-2 against the spread (the odds line).

Georgia Tech (6.8, 4.1, SoS=45) is favored at home by 14 points over Duke (4.8, 5.1, SoS=5).
We call the game for Georgia Tech: 33-17
Result: The Yellow Jackets won 27-0, with a net average yards per play advantage of 6.2 to 2.7.
This week, we are 9-2 in predicting winners and 8-2 against the spread (the odds line).

West Virginia (5.9, 4.4, SoS=23) is favored at home by 14 points over Rutgers (5.4, 5.4, SoS=94).
We call the game for West Virginia: 37-14
Result: The Mountaineers won 24-17.
This week, we are 10-2 in predicting winners and 8-3 against the spread (the odds line).

Boston College (4.9, 4.1, SoS=145) is favored on the road by 8 points over North Carolina State (4.3, 5.9, SoS=16).
We call the game for Boston College: 28-21
Result: The Eagles won 38-31.
This week, we are 11-2 in predicting winners and 9-3 against the spread (the odds line).

Akron (4.7, 5.0, SoS=59) is favored on the road by 4 points over Kent State (5.6, 6.2, SoS=108).
We call the game for Akron: 28-21.
Result: Akron beat Kent 30-27 in two overtimes.
This week, we are 12-2 in predicting winners and 9-4 against the spread (the odds line).

Kansas (5.9, 5.0, SoS=47) is favored on the road by 13 points over Iowa State (5.4, 5.9, SoS=76).
We call the game for Kansas: 39-23
Result: After trailing 20-0 at halftime, the Jayhawks returned after the intermission with a vengeance, putting up 35 second half points, but then barely withstood a late Cyclones rally as Iowa State scored a late touchdown and recovered the onside kick, but went 0 for 4 on the subsequent passes, allowing Kansas to win by a hair 35-33.
This week, we are 13-2 in predicting winners and 9-5 against the spread (the odds line).

Oklahoma (6.9, 3.7, SoS=60) is favored on the road by 27 points over Baylor (6.7, 4.2, SoS=28).
We call the game for Oklahoma: 38-17
Result: The Sooners, buoyed by a 28-0 1st-quarter lead, beat the Bears 49-17.
This week, we are 14-2 in predicting winners and 9-6 against the spread (the odds line).

Florida (5.9, 4.0, SoS=109) is favored on the road by 22 points over Arkansas (5.3, 5.5, SoS=30).
We call the game for Florida: 34-28
Result: The Gators scored 21 4th-quarter points to win 38-7.
This week, we are 15-2 in predicting winners and 9-7 against the spread (the odds line).

Alcorn State at New Mexico State
We call the game for New Mexico State: 38-17
Result: Nedw Mexico State won 45-10.
This week, we are 16-2 in predicting winners and 9-7 against the spread (the odds line).

Virginia Tech (4.7, 5.6, SoS=6) is favored at home by 28 points over Western Kentucky (4.3, 5.6, SoS=98).
We call the game for Virginia Tech: 34-21
Result: The Hokies won 27-13.
This week, we are 17-2 in predicting winners and 10-7 against the spread (the odds line).

Colorado State (5.1, 5.9, SoS=58) is favored at home by 1 point over UNLV (5.6, 6.3, SoS=40).
We call the game for Colorado State: 36-34
Result: Colorado State won 41-28.
This week, we are 18-2 in predicting winners and 11-7 against the spread (the odds line).

Western Michigan (6.1, 5.3, SoS=126) is favored at home by 4 points over Ohio (5.5, 4.9, SoS=62).
We call the game for Western Michigan: 26-24
Result: Western Michigan won 41-20.
This week, we are 19-2 in predicting winners and 11-8 against the spread (the odds line).

Mississippi (6.3, 4.7, SoS=38) is favored at home by 2 1/2 points over South Carolina (4.9, 4.0, SoS=26).
We call the game for Mississippi: 31-23
Result: South Carolina won 31-24.
This week, we are 19-3 in predicting winners and 11-9 against the spread (the odds line).

Notre Dame (5.1, 5.4, SoS=37) is favored at home by 7 1/2 points over Stanford (5.2, 5.1, SoS=34).
We call the game for Stanford: 30-28
Result: Notre Dame won 28-21.
This week, we are 19-4 in predicting winners and 12-9 against the spread (the odds line).

Tulane (5.2, 4.6, SoS=42) is favored at home by 19 points over Army (3.9, 5.6, SoS=122).
We call the game for Tulane: 38-7
Result: In an incredible result, Army won 44-13.
This week, we are 19-5 in predicting winners and 12-10 against the spread (the odds line).

Miami (OH) (4.6, 5.6, SoS=19) is favored at home by 7 points over Temple (4.3, 5.3, SoS=55).
We call the game for Miami of Ohio: 17-14
Result: Temple won 28-10.
This week, we are 19-6 in predicting winners and 13-10 against the spread (the odds line).

UCF (4.1, 5.3, SoS=88) is favored at home by 14 points over Southern Methodist (5.5, 6.8, SoS=36).
We call the game for SMU: 31-30
Result: UCF won 31-17.
This week, we are 19-7 in predicting winners and 13-10-1 against the spread (the odds line).

California (6.6, 4.2, SoS=40) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over Arizona State (6.3, 4.8, SoS=11).
We call the game for Cal: 40-32
Result: California won 24-14.
This week, we are 20-7 in predicting winners and 13-11-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Bowling Green (4.6, 5.1, SoS=4) is favored at home by 21 points over Eastern Michigan (5.4, 5.8, SoS=136).
We call the game for Bowling Green: 31-14
Result: Eastern Michigan won 24-21.
This week, we are 20-8 in predicting winners and 14-11-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Alabama (5.9, 4.1, SoS=25) is favored at home by 16 1/2 points over Kentucky (4.9, 3.9, SoS=129).
We call the game for Alabama: 17-7.
Result: Alabama won 17-14.
This week, we are 21-8 in predicting winners and 15-11-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Michigan (4.5, 4.3, SoS=3) is favored at home by 2 points over Illinois (6.1, 5.7, SoS=56).
We call the game for Michigan: 24-21
Result: Illinois won 45-20.
This week, we are 21-9 in predicting winners and 15-12-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Texas Tech (7.6, 4.8, SoS=81) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Kansas State (6.5, 5.0, SoS=135).
We call the game for Texas Tech: 44-31
Result: Texas Tech won 58-28.
This week, we are 22-9 in predicting winners and 16-12-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Air Force (5.6, 5.7, SoS=52) is favored at home by 6 points over Navy (6.7, 5.8, SoS=33).
We call the game for Navy: 35-24.
Result: Navy beat Air Force 33-27.
This week, we are 23-9 in predicting winners and 17-12-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Miami (FL) (5.1, 4.8, SoS=104) is favored at home by 2 1/2 points over Florida State (6.4, 3.6, SoS=61).
We call the game for Florida State: 37-14
Result: Florida State won 41-39.
This week, we are 24-9 in predicting winners and 18-12-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Nevada (6.5, 6.4, SoS=8) is favored on the road by 24 1/2 points over Idaho (4.8, 6.8, SoS=133).
We call the game for Nevada: 42-24
Result: Nevada won 49-14.
This week, we are 25-9 in predicting winners and 18-13-1 against the spread (the odds line).

TCU (5.1, 4.1, SoS=68) is favored at home by 24 1/2 points over San Diego State (5.6, 5.6, SoS=74).
We call the game for TCU: 31-19
Result: TCU won 41-7.
This week, we are 26-9 in predicting winners and 18-14-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Auburn (4.7, 3.8, SoS=100) is favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over Vanderbilt (4.9, 5.3, SoS=24).
We call the game for Auburn: 17-13.
Result: Vanderbilt won 14-13.
This week, we are 26-10 in predicting winners and 18-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Ball State (7.1, 5.6, SoS=110) is favored on the road by 7 points over Toledo (5.4, 5.3, SoS=121).
We call the game for Ball State: 38-26.
Result: Ball State beat Toledo 31-0.
This week, we are 27-10 in predicting winners and 19-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL) (6.4, 6.3, SoS=103) is favored on the road by 1 point over Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) (4.9, 6.1, SoS=95).
We call the game for ULL: 44-34
Result: Louisiana-Lafayette beat Monroe 44-35.
This week, we are 28-10 in predicting winners and 20-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Tennessee (5.1, 4.0, SoS=106) is favored at home by 16 points over Northern Illinois (6.2, 4.6, SoS=153).
We call the game for Tennessee: 28-17
Result: The Vols won 13-9.
This week, we are 29-10 in predicting winners and 21-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Southern Miss (5.5, 5.9, SoS=91) is favored at home by 8 points over UTEP (5.2, 6.0, SoS=72).
We call the game for Southern Miss: 33-28
Result: UTEP won in 2 overtimes 40-37.
This week, we are 29-11 in predicting winners and 22-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Maryland (6.0, 5.3, SoS=93) is favored on the road by 14 points over Virginia (3.9, 5.5, SoS=2).
We call the game for Maryland: 27-18
Result: Virginia came out of nowhere to stomp the Terrapins 31-0.
This week, we are 29-12 in predicting winners and 23-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Florida International (3.4, 5.0, SoS=21) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over North Texas (4.7, 7.0, SoS=9).
We call the game for Florida International: 35-28
Result: Florida International won 42-10.
This week, we are 30-12 in predicting winners and 24-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

North Carolina (5.9, 4.8, SoS=82) is favored at home by 7 points over Connecticut (5.6, 5.1, SoS=78).
We call the game for North Carolina: 35-27
Result: North Carolina won 38-12.
This week, we are 31-12 in predicting winners and 25-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Texas (6.8, 4.6, SoS=70) is favored on the road by 14 points over Colorado (4.7, 4.9, SoS=48).
We call the game for Texas: 38-21
Result: Texas beat Colorado 38-14.
This week, we are 32-12 in predicting winners and 26-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Oklahoma State (7.8, 4.6, SoS=115) is favored at home by 23 1/2 points over Texas A&M (4.9, 5.3, SoS=144).
We call the game for Oklahoma State: 52-14
Result: Oklahoma State won 56-28.
This week, we are 33-12 in predicting winners and 27-15-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Arizona (5.9, 3.8, SoS=163) is favored at home by 19 points over Washington (4.4, 7.5, SoS=1).
We call the game for Arizona: 24-17.
Result: Arizona won 48-14.
This week, we are 34-12 in predicting winners and 27-16-1 against the spread (the odds line).

USC (6.4, 3.8, SoS=12) is favored at home by 17 points over Oregon (6.5, 4.3, SoS=54).
We call the game for USC: 38-28
Result: USC beat Oregon 44-10.
This week, we are 35-12 in predicting winners and 27-17-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Tulsa (8.6, 5.8, SoS=162) is favored at home by 14 points over Rice (5.8, 6.5, SoS=39).
We call the game for Tulsa: 55-32
Result: Tulsa beat Rice 63-28.
This week, we are 36-12 in predicting winners and 28-17-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Ohio State (5.2, 4.3, SoS=73) is favored on the road by 2 1/2 points over Wisconsin (5.8, 4.7, SoS=43).
We call the game for Wisconsin: 24-17
Result: The Buckeyes won 20-17.
This week, we are 36-13 in predicting winners and 28-18-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Fresno State (6.3, 5.8, SoS=118) is favored at home by 22 points over Hawaii (5.0, 4.9, SoS=71).
We call the game for Fresno State: 35-27
Result: Hawaii beat Fresno State in overtime 32-29.
This week, we are 36-14 in predicting winners and 29-18-1 against the spread (the odds line).

New Mexico (4.6, 5.7, SoS=67) is favored at home by 11 points over Wyoming (4.2, 4.9, SoS=57).
We call the game for New Mexico: 20-19
Result: New Mexico beat Wyoming 24-0.
This week, we are 37-14 in predicting winners and 29-19-1 against the spread (the odds line).

UCLA (4.5, 5.6, SoS=66) is favored at home by 16 1/2 points over Washington State (4.4, 6.7, SoS=46).
We call the game for UCLA: 28-16
Result: UCLA won 28-3.
This week, we are 38-14 in predicting winners and 29-20-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Missouri (8.2, 4.8, SoS=87) is favored on the road by 10 points over Nebraska (6.9, 5.0, SoS=32).
We call the game for Nebraska: 38-35
Result: Dehusked. How bad are the Huskers? Mizzou never punted in this game, not once. That is a statistic to remember. As a Husker alum, we have a short stick of patience for incompetence in the Nebraska football coaching staff. Mizzou beat the helpless Cornhuskers 52-17, winning in Lincoln for the first time in 30 years. The Husker website says that the Tigers "tripped" Nebraska. In fact, the Big Red - you hardly ever see that term Big Red anymore - was crushed. The Husker offensive playcallying continues to be an abysmal remnant of Callahan days and we can only hope that Pelini and Osborne finally see the light and get someone at offensive coordinator who understands football. Even when down by multiple TDs, the Huskers still seem to insist, predictably, on running the football ineffectually on first down and then throwing ineffectually on 3rd down. Even at end of the 3rd quarter and the beginning of the 4th quarter, down by 42 points, the Huskers ran a series of downs with 6 rushes and two passes. The Huskers rushed 35 times for 79 yards. That is stupidity in offensive playcallying personified.
This week, we were 38-15 in predicting winners and 29-21-1 against the spread (the odds line).

Crossposted to LawPundit.

Friday, September 26, 2008

College Football Game Prognostications and Results - 2008 Season - Week 5

Update: It was an absolutely wild weekend in college football as nine ranked Division I-A FBS teams lost, including Southern Cal, Georgia and Florida. As a result, we also had our prognosticating problems, with a record this week of 39-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread. For the season we are 337-87 in calling the game winner and 98-97-3 against the spread.
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After a strong week of prognostication, in which we beat the spread 26-17-1, we now go into week 5 with presumably more information available, so that for the first time this season, we rely solely on the 2008 football stats to make our predictions for the games for which odds are made (the line, the spread). The odds used below are those posted at Yahoo Odds on Monday, September 22, 2008. The unique system used for game prognostications is SPRS, which uses primarily our own derived NAYPPA system (based on yards per play stats from cfbstats.com) plus the Massey Ratings strength of schedule (SoS) for making college football predictions, although we handle SoS differently here than for a full season. Thus far this year, for Division I-A FBS football, the median (of 120 teams) net yards per play gained on offense is 5.5 whereas the median net yards per play allowed on defense is 5.1. In the year 2007 those medians were 5.4 and 5.3 respectively for the full season. Unless otherwise noted, the stats in parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and net average yards per play allowed on defense thus far this football season. Each point of SPRS rating advantage = 9 points on the scoreboard (see the 2007 final rankings). We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Thursday, September 25, 2008


The Tulane Green Wave (New Orleans, Louisiana) (4.6, 4.3, SoS=11) is favored at home by 17 points over the Southern Methodist (SMU) Mustangs (Dallas, Texas) (5.5, 6.7, SoS=25). We calculate a current total 1.8 SPRS rating point advantage for Tulane, so that 1.8 x 9 = 16 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 33-14 for Tulane.
Result: 34-27 for Tulane as Andre Anderson ran for 219 yards. The Green Wave raced out to a 31-7 halftime lead and then nearly frittered away the game in the second half. Tulane averaged 7.2 yards per play to SMU's 5.5 for a NAYPPA of 1.7 and thus nearly matching the previous SPRS rating point advantage of 1.8, but failing to capitalize on that on the scoreboard, which generally shows coaching weakness.
Our record this week is 1-0 in picking the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

The USC Trojans (6.5, 3.3, SoS=5), Los Angeles, California, are favored on the road by 23 1/2 points over the Oregon State Beavers (5.5, 5.2, SoS=61), Corvallis, Oregon. Southern Cal currently leads the nation in net yards per play allowed on defense with 3.3. Our current rating calculation makes USC 4.3 rating points better than Oregon State. 4.3 x 9 = 39 points minus the 3 point home field advantage for Oregon State = 36 points.
Our call: 45-9 for USC.
Result: 27-21 for Oregon State against the top-ranked Trojans. It was quite an upset as Oregon State led 21-0 at the half against a USC team that could get nothing moving on offense in the first half and was unable to stop the Beavers on the ground or in the air. Sometimes the best team does not win in college football, as USC averaged 6.1 yards per play to Oregon State's 4.7, showing a clear dominance which did not surface on the scoreboard due to two costly Southern Cal turnovers.
Our record this week is 1-1 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (Cookeville, Tennessee) at Central Methodist Eagles Fayette, Missouri.
Our call: 49-7 for the Golden Eagles.
Result: Tennessee Tech won 47-19, holding Central Methodist to only 8 first downs.
Our record this week is 2-1 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (Itta Bena, Mississippi) at Alabama State Hornets (Montgomery, Alabama).
These teams appear to be about even, so we go with the home team.
Our call: 30-27 for Alabama State.
Result: Alabama State completely dominated this game, scoring 33 points in the second quarter and winning 47-7 while holding Missippi Valley State to 6 first downs and 102 yards total offense.
Our record this week is 3-1 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Friday, September 26, 2008

The Louisville Cardinals (5.4, 4.2, SoS=21) (Louisville, Kentucky) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Connecticut Huskies (5.9, 4.5, SoS=63) (Storrs, Connecticut). The SPRS ratings last year had these two teams even, and a calculation of the current rating gives Louisville a .7 rating point advantage = .7 x 9 = 6 scoring points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 points. Through the Ryder Cup in Louisville, the city is on a sports high, and we give the nod to the Cardinals by 9.
Our call: 30-21 for Louisville.
Result: Louisville rolled up 508 yards total offense to 279 for the Huskies, averaging 7.2 yards gained per play to 4.5 for Connecticut and still lost 27-21 on a late interception for a TD. The Cardinals constantly stranded near the Huskies 30-yard line, suggesting that the playcalling and the game management by the coaches was dismal as the team approached the red zone.
Our record this week is 3-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.

Hofstra (Long Island, New York) at Stony Brook (Long Island, New York).
Stony Brook disappointed against Brown last week, being held to only 7 first downs.
Our call: 24-9 for Hofstra.
Result: 43-3 for Hofstra.
Our record this week is 4-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Auburn (5.0, 3.9, SoS=72) (Auburn, Alabama) is favored at home by 6 points over Tennessee (5.6, 4.3, SoS=133) (Knoxville, Tennessee). Our current rating calculation puts Auburn at a 1.6 point rating advantage x 9 = 14 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 17 scoreboard points.
Our call: 31-14 for Auburn.
Result: Auburn won 14-12 as both teams averaged an abysmal 3.4 yards on offense.
Our record this week is 5-2 in picking the winner and 0-4 against the spread.

The Ball State Cardinals (7.4, 5.5, SoS=102) (Muncie, Indiana) are favored at home by 17 points over the Kent State Golden Flashes (5.6, 6.3, SoS=134) (Kent, Ohio). The current SPRS rating calculation makes Ball State 3.8 rating points better than Kent State x 9 = 34 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 37 scoreboard points.
Our call: 51-14 for Ball State.
Result: Ball State won 41-20.
Our record this week is 6-2 in picking the winner and 1-4 against the spread.

The Bowling Green State University Falcons (4.5, 5.3, SoS=1) (Bowling Green, Ohio) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Wyoming Cowboys (4.2, 4.8, SoS=75) (Laramie, Wyoming). The current SPRS ratings calculation makes Bowling Green 7 points better minus the 3-point home field advantage for the Cowboys = 4 scoreboard points.
Our call: 24-20 for Bowling Green.
Result: Bowling Green won 45-16.
Our record this week is 7-2 in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.

The California Bears (6.7, 4.1, SoS=104) (Berkeley, California) are favored at home by 25 points over the Colorado State Rams (5.5, 5.8, SoS=145) (Fort Collins, Colorado). The current SPRS rating for Cal is 3.7 rating points better than the Rams x 9 = 24 scoreboard points plus the 3-point home advantage = 27 scoreboard points.
Our call: 41-14 for Cal.
Result: Cal won 42-7.
Our record this week is 8-2 in picking the winner and 3-4 against the spread.

The Central Michigan Chippewas (5.3, 6.5, SoS=45) (Mount Pleasant, Michigan) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Buffalo Bulls (State University of New York at Buffalo)(5.6, 6.1, SoS=29) (Buffalo, New York). The current SPRS rating for Buffalo is .7 rating points x 9 = 6 points better than that of the Chippewas minus the home field advantage makes Buffalo our favorite by 3 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Buffalo.
Result: Winning and losing is sometimes indeed just a matter of inches. As time expired, the Buffalo 46-yard field goal attempt hit the right upright as Central Michigan thus won 27-25.
Our record this week is 8-3 in picking the winner and 4-4 against the spread.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (6.2, 5.4, SoS=136) (Cincinnati, Ohio) are favored on the road by 10 points over the Akron Zips (5.8, 5.6, SoS= 36) (Akron, Ohio). Akron lost by 21 to then 13th-ranked Wisconsin and Cincinnati lost by 26 to then 4th-ranked Oklahoma. That makes both teams about even.
Our call: 31-30 for Cincinnati.
Result: Cincinnati won 17-15.
Our record this week is 9-3 in picking the winner and 5-4 against the spread.

The Clemson Tigers (6.4, 4.8, SoS=69) (Clemson, South Carolina) are favored at home by 11 1/2 points over the University of Maryland Terrapins (6.2, 5.2, SoS=155) (College Park, Maryland).
Our call: 34-20 for Clemson.
Result: Maryland won 20-17.
Our record this week is 9-4 in picking the winner and 5-5 against the spread.

The Duke Blue Devils (5.1, 5.6, SoS=35) (Durham, North Carolina) are favored at home by 7 points over the Virginia Cavaliers (3.8, 6.1, SoS=2) (Charlottesville, Virginia). Virginia has no offense to speak of this year and has a host of serious problems.
Our call: 34-21 for Duke.
Result: Duke won 31-3.
Our record this week is 10-4 in picking the winner and 6-5 against the spread.

The East Carolina Pirates (5.6, 4.6, SoS=17) (Greenville, North Carolina) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the Houston Cougars (6.4, 6.1, SoS=120) (Houston, Texas). The Pirates fell to NC State last week but should rebound well at home against the Cougars.
Our call: 38-20 for East Carolina.
Result: Houston beat East Carolina 41-24. Houston averaged 7.4 to 4.3 yards per play as the Cougars put up a massive 621 yards total offense against the Pirates 275.
Our record this week is 10-5 in picking the winner and 6-6 against the spread.

The Florida Gators (5.8, 3.5, SoS=147) (Gainesville, Florida) are favored at home by 23 1/2 points over Mississippi Rebels (6.5, 4.3, SoS=46) (Oxford, Mississippi). Our ratings make Florida about a 1.2 rating point favorite x 9 = 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 14 scoreboard points.
Our call: 34-20 for Florida.
Result: Florida lost 31-30 as Houston Nutt in his fourth game as head coach led the Rebels to a signature win. The Gators rolled up 443 total yards as opposed to the Mississippi 325 but lost three costly fumbles.
Our record this week is 10-6 in picking the winner and 7-6 against the spread.

The Florida State Seminoles (6.7, 3.5, SoS=89) (Tallahassee, Florida) are favored at home by 6 points over the Colorado Buffaloes (5.0, 4.7, SoS=84) (Boulder, Colorado). The Seminoles turned the ball over 7 times against Wake Forest last week (5 interceptions and 2 fumbles), as the offense failed to score a TD and the Seminoles lost ignominiously at home 12-3, completing only 12 of 36 passes. On paper, Florida State should win easily, also because of a very strong defense, but the QBs are perhaps weak. Moreover, the Buffs have allowed no more yards passing this year than Wake Forest, so that Florida State may be in for another rough day through the air. Last year Florida State won 16-6 at Colorado, but the Buffs are better this year, coming off a 17-14 win over then 21st-ranked West Virginia, but did not have to do much pass defense. This is a very tough game to call as far as any prognosticated final score is concerned. Too many ifs. We go with the home team and assume they will get back on track.
Our call: 24-17 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles won 39-21.
Our record this week is 11-6 in picking the winner and 8-6 against the spread.

The Fresno State Bulldogs (6.3, 5.6, SoS=69) (Fresno, California) are favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over the UCLA Bruins (3.8, 5.4, SoS=58) (Los Angeles, California). UCLA ranks 118th out of 120 teams in Division I-A FBS in terms of yards per play on offense. You can not win if you can not score. Here is some related trivia. UCLA is located in Westwood which adjoins the "platinum triangle" of Beverly Hills, Holmby Hills and Bel Air, where a plan for a community of grandiose estates was first formulated by merchant Arthur Letts Sr., who owned a good share of the former Wolfskill Farm, from which UCLA and the residential communities were carved. Arthur Letts Jr. built a personal mansion which today is better known as the Playboy mansion of Hugh Heffner. The idea of grand estates on the Letts property was a full success and many mansions have served as homes to world famous Hollywood personalities as also to merchants and other famous personages, such as former US Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. The West Gate of Bel Air at Bellagio Road and Sunset Boulevard is opposite an entrance for UCLA. In spite of all that pomp and circumstance, the team from Fresno appears to hold the edge in this football game, with an SPRS rating that suggests about a 2 TD victory minus the UCLA home field advantage.
Our call: 28-17 for Fresno State
Result: Fresno State won 36-31.
Our record this week is 12-6 in picking the winner and 8-7 against the spread.

The University of Georgia Bulldogs (Dogs) (7.1, 4.4, SoS=32) (Athens, Georgia) are favored at home by 6 points over the University of Alabama Crimson Tide (5.9, 3.8, SoS=40) (, ) (Tuscaloosa, Alabama). For this season, Georgia has a .7 SPRS rating advantage, which translates into 6 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 scoreboard points.
Our call: 26-17 for Georgia.
Result: Alabama pummeled Georgia in the first half to take a 31-0 lead and then cruised to a 41-30 win.
Our record this week is 12-7 in picking the winner and 8-8 against the spread.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (5.9, 4.1, SoS=57) (Iowa City (Coralville), Iowa) are favored at home by 8 points over the Northwestern Wildcats (5.2, 4.2, SoS=83) (Evanston, Illinois). The stats clearly favor Iowa by a rating advantage of about 9 scoreboard points plus 3 points home field advantage = 12 scoreboard points.
Our call: 29-17 for Iowa.
Result: Northwestern won 22-17 as the Hawkeyes lost 4 fumbles. Part of coaching responsibility is to teach football players how to hang on to the ball.
Our record this week is 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

The Kansas State Wildcats (6.5, 4.5, SoS=108) (Manhattan, Kansas) are favored at home by 20 points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (ULL) (6.4, 6.2, SoS=94) (Lafayette, Louisiana). By SPRS rating Kansas State is about a 16-point favorite plus 3-point home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Kansas State.
Result: Kansas State won 45-37 in an unimpressive win in which the Ragin' Cajuns put up more yardage on offense.
Our record this week is 13-8 in picking the winner and 8-10 against the spread.

The Kentucky Wildcats (4.7, 4.1, SoS=97) (Lexington, Kentucky) are favored at home by 22 1/2 points over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4.6, 5.5, SoS=124) (Bowling Green, Kentucky). Current SPRS ratings favor Kentucky by 19 points plus the home field advantage = 22 points.
Our call: 29-7 for Kentucky.
Result: Kentucky won 41-3.
Our record this week is 14-8 in picking the winner and 8-11 against the spread.

The Louisiana State (LSU) Tigers (6.6, 4.0, SoS=121) (Baton Rouge, Louisiana) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the Mississippi State University Bulldogs (4.6, 4.9, SoS=55) (Starkville, Mississippi). By current SPRS ratings, LSU has about a 20-point scoreboard advantage, plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 23 points.
Our call: 40-17 for LSU.
Result: LSU won 34-24.
Our record this week is 15-8 in picking the winner and 9-11 against the spread.

The opening line for the Memphis Tigers (5.8, 6.2, SoS=100) (Memphis, Tennessee) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7.5, 4.5, SoS=158) (Jonesboro, Arkansas) was zero. If Memphis can beat this Arkansas State team, it would be a surprise to this prognosticator, who sees an exceptional team at Jonesboro this year, beating Texas A&M to start out the season.
By SPRS ratings, Arkansas State looks like a 3 TD favorite, minus the Memphis home field advantage = 18 points.
Our call: 38-20 for Arkansas State.
Result: Memphis won 29-17.
Our record this week is 15-9 in picking the winner and 9-12 against the spread.

The Miami, Florida Hurricanes (5.3, 4.6, SoS=135) (Miami, Florida) are favored at home by 7 points over the North Carolina Tar Heels (6.1, 4.9, SoS=68) (Chapel Hill, North Carolina). By SPRS ratings, North Carolina looks like the favorite by 11 points minus the Miami 3-point home field advantage = 8 points.
Our call: 31-23 for North Carolina.
Result: North Carolina won 28-24.
Our record this week is 16-9 in picking the winner and 10-12 against the spread.

The Michigan State Spartans (5.2, 5.2, SoS=119) (East Lansing, Michigan) are favored on the road by 9 points over the Indiana Hoosiers (6.0, 4.9, SoS=113) (Bloomington, Indiana). By SPRS ratings, Indiana is favored by 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage for Indiana = 14 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Indiana.
Result: Michigan State won 42-29.
Our record this week is 16-10 in picking the winner and 10-13 against the spread.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.0, 4.9, SoS=27) (Lincoln, Nebraska) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Virginia Tech (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) Hokies (4.5, 5.5, SoS=14) (Blacksburg, Virginia). Even though the Huskers are undefeated this year, as written by Robin Washut at Huskers Illustrated, the Huskers give average grade after 3 games. Virginia Tech this year - as last year - has been weak offensively and not as good on defense as is their custom, so that they are averaging 272 yards per game on offense and giving up 328 yards per game on defense, so that it is remarkable that they have achieved their current 3-1 record against some good opposition. On paper, when comparing offensive and defensive yards per play stats, Nebraska has an SPRS 3.1 rating advantage x 9 = 28 points plus the 3-point home team advantage = 31 scoreboard points. Unless the Husker offense suddenly hits new highs, however, we look for a potentially closer game than that and, as a Husker alum, remain worried if the Huskers are really good enough to win this game, but we will, for now, go with the stats in calling the game score.
Our call: 38-7 for Nebraska.
Result: Our worst fears about the Huskers were realized as Nebraska underperformed both on offense and defense, allowing 377 total net yards to a team having virtually no offense and losing ignominiously at home 35-30, while rushing for a meagre 55 yards, as the passing game sputtered again. The Nebraska playcalling was no better than under preceding coach Callahan as the Huskers had three series of downs beginning with two unsuccessful rushing plays against a defense that was very strong against the rush, signalling the 3rd down pass and ending in punts, one with disastrous consequences:

1st-10, Neb5 10:05 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, Neb10 9:26 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
3rd-2, Neb14 8:45 J. Ganz incomplete pass down the middle
4th-2, Neb14 8:41 Neb blocked punt attempt by D. Titchener. Recovered by D. Titchener. Safety

Nebraska - 7:03
1st-10, Neb39 7:03 R. Helu rushed to the left for no gain
2nd-10, Neb39 6:24 J. Ganz rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-6, Neb43 5:55 Neb committed 5 yard penalty
4th-11, Neb38 5:55 D. Titchener punt, no return

Nebraska - 10:17
1st-10, Neb23 10:17 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, Neb26 10:00 M. Lucky rushed up the middle for 4 yard loss
3rd-11, Neb22 9:00 J. Ganz sacked by O. Martin
4th-20, Neb13 8:30 D. Titchener punt. V. Harris returned punt for 22 yards

We became used to that kind of playcalling under former head coach Callahan. One might consider looking at the University of Tulsa game films and the offense that Gus Malzahn runs there. Why is a top offensive coach like that not running the Cornhusker offense?

Are the Huskers competitive again? We doubt it. The Cornhuskers still have a VERY long way to go to rejoin the football elite corps. Accordingly, Husker fans should not place great expectations in the rest of the forthcoming seaon, which may be marked by some blowout losses when playing top teams.

Our record this week is 16-11 in picking the winner and 10-14 against the spread.

The New Mexico Lobos (4.7., 5.3, SoS=45) (Albuquerque, New Mexico) are favored on the road by 4 points over the New Mexico State Aggies (5.2., 6.5, SoS=20) (Las Cruces, New Mexico). By SPRS ratings, these teams are even this year. Last year New Mexico won at home 44-34. The Aggies have a weak defense which should not hurt them that much against the subpar offense of the Lobos. We go with the home team.
Our call: 31-30 for New Mexico State.
Result: New Mexico scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter to win 35-24.
Our record this week is 16-12 in picking the winner and 10-15 against the spread.

The Northern Illinois University Huskies (6.4, 5.0, SoS=80) (DeKalb, Illinois) are favored on the road by 6 points over the Eastern Michigan Eagles (5.9, 5.9, SoS=154) (Ypsilanti, Michigan). Last year, SPRS ranked these two teams even, and Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois on the road 21-19. This year, Northern Illinois would appear to have the stronger team.
Our call: 34-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result: Northern Illinois won 37-0.
Our record this week is 17-12 in picking the winner and 11-15 against the spread.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4.6, 5.1, SoS=122) (Notre Dame (South Bend), Indiana) are favored at home by 2 1/2 points over the Purdue Boilermakers (5.4, 5.1, SoS=70) (West Lafayette, Indiana). Last year the Irish lost at Purdue 33-19 and the current season stats would make Purdue the favorite again this year due to the weakness of the Fighting Irish offense.
Our call: 31-24 for Purdue.
Result: Notre Dame won 38-21, even though the stats for the game were almost identical for both teams, but Purdue wilted in the second half.
Our record this week is 17-13 in picking the winner and 11-16 against the spread.

The Ohio State Buckeyes (4.8, 4.3, SoS=47) (Columbus, Ohio) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Minnesota Gophers (6.1, 5.2, SoS=99) (Twin Cities, Minnesota). We do not think the Buckeye offense is good enough to warrant such a large spread. By SPRS, the Buckeyes do not have much more than 3 points of a home field advantage.
Our call: 24-21 for Ohio State.
Result: Ohio State won 34-21.
Our record this week is 18-13 in picking the winner and 12-16 against the spread.

The Oklahoma Sooners (7.0, 3.6, SoS=129) (Norman, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs (5.3, 3.4, SoS=110) (Fort Worth, Texas). By SPRS ratings, Oklahoma has a 1.3 rating advantage x 9 = 12 points plus 3 points for the home field = 15 points.
Our call: 28-13 for Oklahoma.
Result: Oklahoma won 35-10.
Our record this week is 19-13 in picking the winner and 12-17 against the spread.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (7.9, 4.2, SoS=181) (Stillwater, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 16 1/2 points over the Troy Trojans (5.7, 3.5, SoS=127) (Troy, Alabama). We think that Troy will be able to slow down the Cowboy offense a bit, as the current SPRS ratings give Oklahoma State a 9-point edge plus the 3-point home field advantage = 12 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Oklahoma State.
Result: A Troy team that had played respectably 28-10 against Ohio State was blown out of the stadium by Oklahoma State 55-24, who led 35-10 at the half.
Our record this week is 20-13 in picking the winner and 12-18 against the spread.

The Oregon University Ducks (6.4, 4.5, SoS=12) (Eugene, Oregon) are favored on the road by 19 1/2 points over the Washington State Cougars (4.6, 6.7, SoS=91) (Pullman, Washington). In the Oregon loss to Boise State, 37-32, after a concussion to the starting QB and an ineffectual injury-hampered replacement, freshman Darron Thomas had his redshirt pulled and led the Ducks from a 37-13 4th quarter deficit to a near win. If that performance is indicative that Thomas may start at QB and if he continues to play like that, Oregon may even become dangerous for USC. Hence, we look for a big offensive showing against the Cougars, as the SPRS ratings make the Ducks about a 6 to 7 TD favorite.
Our call: 52-7 for Oregon.
Result: Oregon won 63-14 as Jeremiah Masoli returned from his concussion in the previous game to lead the Ducks.
Our record this week is 21-13 in picking the winner and 13-18 against the spread.

The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) Nittany Lions (7.4, 3.5, SoS=132) (State College, Pennsylvania) are favored at home by 14 points over the Illinois University Fighting Illini (6.2, 5.4, SoS=67) (Urbana-Champaign, Illinois). In the Big 10, Ohio State has gotten all the hype but this Penn State team appears to be extremely strong. By SPRS ratings, Penn State is a 23-point favorite plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 26 points.
Our call: 40-14 for Penn State.
Result: 38-24 for Penn State.
Our record this week is 22-13 in picking the winner and 13-18-1 against the spread.

The Pittsburgh Panthers (4.7, 4.6, SoS=11) (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Syracuse Orange (4.9, 6.5, SoS=42) (Syracuse, New York). The Orange football fortunes have fallen on hard times. SPRS gives Pittsburgh a 2.6 rating advantage x 9 = 23 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 20 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pittsburgh scored 18 unanswered points in the 4th quarter as the Panthers rebounded from a 24-13 deficit to save the win 34-24.
Our record this week is 23-13 in picking the winner and 13-19-1 against the spread.

The Rice University Owls (5.4, 6.8, SoS=27) (Houston, Texas) are favored at home by 19 points over the University of North Texas Mean Green (4.4, 6.8, SoS=22) (Denton, Texas). By SPRS, Rice has an advantage of about 11 points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 14 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Rice.
Result: The Rice offense ran wild in winning 77-20 as the Owls led 56-20 at the half. The Mean Green committed 6 turnovers to zero for Rice.
Our record this week is 24-13 in picking the winner and 13-20-1 against the spread.

The San Diego State Aztecs (4.6, 5.9, SoS=74) (San Diego, California) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the University of Idaho Vandals (4.8, 6.5, SoS=76) (Moscow, Idaho). By SPRS the Aztecs have a .8 rating advantage x 9 = 7 points plus the home field advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 31-21 for San Diego State.
Result: San Diego State won 45-17.
Our record this week is 25-13 in picking the winner and 13-21-1 against the spread.

The South Carolina Gamecocks (5.1, 4.0, SoS=6) (Columbia, South Carolina) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the UAB Blazers (6.2, 7.8, SoS=208) (Birmingham, Alabama). Even without taking strength of schedule into account, the Gamecocks are 24-point favorites by SPRS plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 27 points.
Our call: 44-17 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina won 26-13.
Our record this week is 26-13 in picking the winner and 13-22-1 against the spread.

The South Florida Bulls (6.0, 3.9, SoS=115) (Tampa, Florida) are favored on the road by 8 1/2 points over the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4.3, 5.7, SoS=16) (Raleigh, North Carolina). By SPRS, the Bulls hold the advantage by 24 points less 3 points home field advantage = 21 points.
Our call: 28-7 for South Florida.
Result: South Florida won 41-10.
Our record this week is 27-13 in picking the winner and 14-22-1 against the spread.

The Texas Longhorns (7.2, 4.8, SoS=106) (Austin, Texas) are favored at home by 28 points over the Arkansas Razorbacks (5.8, 5.3, SoS=62) (Fayetteville, Arkansas). By SPRS, Texas has 1.8 x 9 = 16-point rating edge plus 3 points for the home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Texas.
Result: Texas beat Arkansas 52-10.
Our record this week is 28-13 in picking the winner and 14-23-1 against the spread.

The Texas A&M Aggies (4.7, 5.7, SoS=93) (College Station, Texas) are favored at home by 28 1/2 points over the Army Black Knights (3.9, 5.5, SoS=65) (West Point, New York). By SPRS, Texas A&M has an advantage of only about 4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points so that we call it for the Aggies by 1 TD.
Our call: 28-21 for Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M won 21-17.
Our record this week is 29-13 in picking the winner and 15-23-1 against the spread.

The Toledo Rockets (6.0, 5.6, SoS=107) (Toledo, Ohio) are favored at home by 18 points over the Florida International University Golden Panthers (3.2, 5.4, SoS=8) (University Park, Miami, Florida). By SPRS we give Toledo a 14-point advantage plus the 3-point home advantage = 17 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Toledo.
Result: In a stunning turnaround of expectations, Florida International won 35-16, due primarily to 4 Toledo turnovers.
Our record this week is 29-14 in picking the winner and 16-23-1 against the spread.

The University of Central Florida (UCF) Knights (4.0, 5.1, SoS=56) (Orlando, Florida) are favored on the road by 5 points over the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) Miners (4.9, 6.6, SoS=14) (El Paso, Texas). UCF has a 4-point rating advantage minus the UTEP home field advantage of 3 points makes it a one-point game by SPRS.
Our call: 28-27 for UCF.
Result: UTEP won 58-13 in a truly unexpected blowout of UCF.
Our record this week is 29-15 in picking the winner and 17-23-1 against the spread.

The University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) Rebels (5.5, 5.7, SoS=7) (Las Vegas, Nevada) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Nevada Wolf Pack (5.9, 6.5, SoS=28) (Reno, Nevada). By SPRS UNLV holds about a 7-point advantage plus the 3 points home team advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 41-31 for UNLV.
Result: Nevada won 49-27.
Our record this week is 29-16 in picking the winner and 17-24-1 against the spread.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4.5, 4.4, SoS=36) (Winston-Salem, North Carolina) are favored at home by 16 points over the Navy Midshipmen (7.0, 6.2, SoS=90) (Annapolis, Maryland). Normal stats do not seem to work well in assessing the Wake Forest football team. On paper, by the stats, SPRS rating makes Wake Forest about a 6-point favorite. How will the Demon Deacons do against the Navy running game? Last year at Navy, they won 44-24, in part due to 3 fumbles by the Midshipmen.
Our call: 30-24 for Wake Forest.
Result: Navy won 24-17.
Our record this week is 29-17 in picking the winner and 18-24-1 against the spread.

The University of Washington Huskies (4.2, 7.4, SoS=3) (Seattle, Washington) are favored at home by 4 points over the Stanford University Cardinal (4.5, 5.1, SoS=37) (Stanford, Palo Alto, California). The Huskies are 119th in defense by yards per play, in part because their first three opponents were Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma, all ranked teams. The aggressive Stanford defense sacked the San Jose quarterback EIGHT times in the last game (compare that to only two sacks by the Huskers against the same team), so the Washington passing attack will have its hands full. Being a Stanford alum, we see things going the way of the Cardinal, although the strong Washington performance against BYU is a cause for concern. By SPRS, Stanford is favored by about two TDs.
Our call: 37-23 for Stanford.
Result: Stanford won 35-28.
Our record this week is 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.

The West Virginia Mountaineers (5.4, 4.9, SoS=15) (Morgantown, West Virginia) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Marshall University Thundering Herd (6.0, 5.5, SoS=64) (Huntington, West Virginia). By SPRS, the Mountaineers are about a 1 TD favorite, minus the Marshall home field advantage = 4 points. Marshall has shown that it can be beaten in the air, but its rushing defense appears to be good, so that West Virginia has its work cut out for it.
Our call: 28-24 for West Virginia.
Result: West Virginia won 27-3 as Marshall was unable to stop the run.
Our record this week is 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.

The Western Michigan Broncos (6.6, 5.8, SoS=59) (Kalamazoo, Michigan) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Temple University Owls (4.6, 5.5, SoS=35) (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). By SPRS, the Broncos are about 10-point favorites minus the Temple home field advantage of 3 points = 7 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Western Michigan.
Result: Western Michigan won 7-3.
Our record this week is 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-25-1 against the spread.

The University of Wisconsin Badgers (6.2, 4.9, SoS=21) (Madison, Wisconsin) are favored on the road by 7 points over the University of Michigan Wolverines (4.7, 4.2, SoS=31) (Ann Arbor, Michigan). The SPRS ratings make the Badgers the favorites by 12 minus the home field advantage of 3 = 9 points. Since we have Wolverine grads in the family, however, we look for improved Michigan play and the upset win.
Our call: 24-23 for Michigan.
Result: Michigan won 27-25.
Our record this week is 33-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The University of Rhode Island Rams (Kingston, Rhode Island) at the Boston College Eagles (4.6, 4.2, SoS=98) (Newton, Massachusetts).
Our call: 42-14 for Boston College.
Result: Boston College won 42-0.
Our record this week is 34-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Virginia Military Institute (VMI) Keydets (Lexington, Virginia) at the University of Ohio Bobcats (4.8, 4.5, SoS=19) (Athens, Ohio).
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.
Result: Ohio won 51-31.
Our record this week is 35-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Morgan State University Golden Bears (Baltimore, Maryland) at the Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, Scarlet Knights (5.5, 6.3, SoS=41) (New Brunswick, Piscataway, New Jersey).
Our call: 49-7 for Rutgers.
Result: Rutgers won 38-0.
Our record this week is 36-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Central Arkansas Bears (Conway, Arkansas) at the University of Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8.4, 5.7, SoS=193) (Tulsa, Oklahoma):
Our call: 55-24 for Tulsa.
Result: Tulsa won 62-34.
Our record this week is 37-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Weber State Wildcats (Ogden, Utah) at the University of Utah Utes (5.7, 3.5, SoS=18) (Salt Lake City, Utah). Last year Weber State lost 56-7 to Boise State, and this game may not be much different to a similarly strong opponent.
Our call: 51-7 for Utah.
Result: Utah won 37-21.
Our record this week is 38-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

The University of Hawaii Warriors (4.8, 5.3, SoS=111) (Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii) are favored at home by 3 points over the San Jose State University Spartans (4.9, 4.7, SoS=86) (San Jose, California). By SPRS current ratings, we favor San Jose State by 10 points minus the Hawaii 3-point home field advantage.
Our call: 30-23 for San Jose State.
Result: San Jose State beat Hawaii 20-17.
Our record this week is 39-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.


Crossposted to LawPundit.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

College Football Game Prognostications and Results - 2008 Season - Week 4

Update: We had a good prognostication week in Week 4 of the college football season. Our prognostication record was 78-21 in calling the game winner and 26-17-1 against the spread. For the season we are 298-70 in calling the game winner and 77-72-2 against the spread.
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Odds used are those posted at Yahoo Odds on Monday, September 15, 2008. The system used for game prognostications is SPRS. The stats is parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and allowed on defense thus far this season (for games with odds) OR last season (for games without odds). We disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. The home team is listed first unless otherwise indicated. May the best team win.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

West Virginia (5.5, 5.0) is favored on the road by 3 points over Colorado (5.2, 4.5).
Our call: 27-24 for Colorado.
This West Virginia team bears little resemblance to last year's super team, as the Mountaineers are averaging a mere 5.5 net average yards per play on offense and 5.0 net average yards per play on defense, for a NAYPPA of only 0.5. Last year, for the whole season, those stats were 6.6 and 4.5 yards per play respectively, or a difference of 1.6 (2.1 to 0.5), which is equal to 1.6 x 9 = 14 to 15 points per game which separate this team from the team of last year. Colorado, by comparison, this year is averaging 5.2 net yards per play on offense and 4.5 yards on defense as opposed to figures of 5.1 on offense and 5.6 on defense last year. That is a turnaround of 1.2 x 9 = 11 points per game. This would give the Buffaloes an SPRS -1.1 rating this year (as opposed to -2.3 last year) and West Virginia an SPRS rating of -0.4 this year (as opposed to +1.2 last year). That would make West Virginia only a 4-5 point favorite, and subtracting 3 points for the Colorado home field advantage, would make West Virginia here only a 1-2 point favorite by SPRS, and we think the Buffs could win this one, thus calling it 27-24 for the Buffaloes.
Result: Colorado won in overtime 17-14 on Aric Goodman's field goal, as Colorado profited from two quick TDs in the first quarter, while the defense held West Virginia to only two scores in the game, a solid accomplishment for the constantly improving Dan Hawkins Buffs.
Our prognostication performance this week: 1-0 in calling the winner, 1-0 against the spread.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Connecticut (6.1, 4.0) is favored at home by 14 points over Baylor (7.2, 4.0).

Our call: 28-17 for UConn.
Last year by SPRS, UConn was 5.0 and 5.1 in net yards per play offense and defense respectively, whereas Baylor was 4.9 and 6.0. Last season, the Huskies were ranked 64th by SPRS and the Bears were ranked 147th, a difference of about 19 points. Baylor has made great progress under new head coach Art Briles and Connecticut has also improved, but not as much as Baylor (1.1 one more SPRS rating poinst than UConn = 10 points). Hence UConn is now only 9 points better than Baylor, combined with the 3 point home field advantage, would make our spread 12 points in favor of UConn, but we see the official spread has also dropped to 12 points by Wednesday, so we add a point for the home team here and call it by 11 points for UConn.
Result: UConn won 31-28 in an even game with six lead changes to start the season 4-0 while the Bears showed that they are a much improved team.
Our prognostication performance this week: 2-0 in calling the winner, 2-0 against the spread.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Ohio State (4.7, 4.1) is favored at home by 21 points over Troy (6.1, 2.8).
Our call: 21-14 for Ohio State
The Buckeyes should win this game, but where are they going to get the points with their lean offense? This game might be tougher than expected and we call it for Ohio State 21-14.
Result: In a game in which the Trojans put up 7 yards more total offense than the Buckeyes, the 28-10 Ohio State win made the Buckeyes look better than they actually played and one has to give an applauding hand to Troy for a gritty game.
Our prognostication performance this week: 3-0 in calling the winner, 3-0 against the spread.

Minnesota (5.8, 5.4) is favored at home by 6 1/2 points over Florida Atlantic (5.9, 5.6).
Our call: 37-28 for Florida Atlantic.
By last year's SPRS stats, Florida Atlantic would be a 21 - 3 = 18-point favorite. This year, Minnesota is on a roll and is undefeated against fairly weak opposition, whereas Florida Atlantic has played the likes of Texas. We do not know if Minnesota is far enough improved to beat Florida Atlantic and call it for the Owls by half the margin of last year's stats 37-28.
Result: The Golden Gophers, 1-11 last year under then first year coach Tim Brewster, , continue to astound, as they floored Florida Atlantic 37-3, going to 4-0 in the win column.
Our prognostication performance this week: 3-1 in calling the winner, 3-1 against the spread.

Penn State (7.4, 3.8) is favored at home by 28 points over Temple (5.4, 5.0).
Our call: 46-14 for Penn State.
Temple lost a "Hail Mary" heartbreaker to Buffalo last week, whereas the Nittany Lions have been trampling their opponents. By last year's final SPRS ratings, Penn State would be a 38-point favorite. By this year's yards per play comparison, that advantage would be 32 points.
Result: Penn State, after being held scoreless the first quarter, won handily 45-3.
Our prognostication performance this week: 4-1 in calling the winner, 4-1 against the spread.

Purdue (5.4, 4.9) is favored at home by 10 1/2 points over Central Michigan (5.2, 6.9).
Our call: 39-21 for Purdue.
The Chippewa defense ranks 115th in the nation in terms of yards per play allowed on defense. By last year's SPRS ratings, the Boilermakers would be favored by 13. By comparison of yards per play this year, Purdue would be favored by 23. We split the difference and call it 39-21 for Purdue.
Result: It was another heartstoppper for Purdue, who lost last week in two ovetimes to Oregon, and in this game lost the lead 25-24 to the Chippewas with 1:3o left in the game, only to score themselves on a 46-yard run by Kory Sheets with 1:10 to play to go back in the lead again 32-25 after the successful 2-point conversion. Central Michigan got the ball back on their own 38-yard line with 57 seconds to play. Dan LeFevour passed to Jean Pitts for 23 yards and Central Michigan then was penalized 5 yards with 37 seconds left to play. LeFevour was then intercepted by Dwight McClean. Final score: 32-25 for Purdue. It was a heartbreaker for Central Michigan, who gained 98 more yards total offense than the Boilermakers.
Our prognostication performance this week: 5-1 in calling the winner, 4-2 against the spread.

Northwestern (5.7, 4.5) is favored at home by 11 points over Ohio (5.4, 4.8).
Our call: 28-20 for Northwestern.
By SPRS ratings last year, Northwestern would be favored by 14 points. By comparative yards per play this year, that advantage drops to 8 points. If we split the difference we arrive at the official line of about 11 points. the Bobcats led Ohio State at the half only to lose 26-14. Add to that losses to Wyoming and Central Michigan. Northwestern on the other hand is undefeated as the Wildcats have beaten Syracuse, Duke and Southern Illinois. Ohio seems to have some football talent, but perhaps not that grim determination to pull off the win in close games. We call it for Northwestern 28-20.
Result: 16-8 for Northwestern.
Our prognostication performance this week: 6-1 in calling the winner, 5-2 against the spread.

East Carolina (5.4, 4.3) is favored on the road by 7 1/2 points over North Carolina State ( 3.9, 5.6).
Our call: 28-17 for East Carolina.
Last year East Carolina won at home 34-20 and was ranked 78th and North Carolina State 81st in the SPRS final rankings. East Carolina had 5.7 net yards per play both on offense and defense whereas North Carolina State had net yards per play of 4.7 on offense and 5.2 on defense. The difference this year appears to be that the East Carolina defense is stronger and the North Carolina State offense is weaker. Against Clemson, the only Wolfpack TD came on an interception. Accordingly, it would appear that East Carolina does not have to do a lot of scoring to win. We see East Carolina as two TDs better, subtracting the Wolfpack home advantage here and call it for the Pirates by 11, 28-17.
Result: The soaring rise of the Pirates was stopped by the Wolfpack in overtime 30-24.
Our prognostication performance this week: 6-2 in calling the winner, 5-3 against the spread.

Pittsburgh (4.9, 4.4) is favored at home by 1 1/2 points over Iowa (6.3, 4.1).
Our call: 13-10 for Iowa.
By last year's final SPRS stats, Pitt would be favored by 8 + 3 = 11 points. By this year's yards per play comparison, Iowa would be favored by 15-3 = 12 points. The statistic that is singularly impressive is that the Hawkeyes have not given up a single touchdown in three games. Pitt has a weak offense, so this does not bide well for Panthers. We call it 13-10 for Iowa.
Result: Pittsburgh won 21-20 as the Hawkeyes gained 101 more yards on total offense, but could not convert that into scores, which could be a function of poor coaching or playcalling on offense. We did beat the spread, but did not call the winner.
Our prognostication performance this week: 6-3 in calling the winner, 6-3 against the spread.

Georgia Tech (6.4, 3.7) is favored at home by 8 points over Mississippi State (4.3 , 3.8).
Our call: 24-14 for Georgia Tech
Mississippi State lost 3-2 last week against Auburn and, judging by the stats, this looks again like a defensive donnybrook, although Georgia Tech has a better offense than Auburn and a 19-16 win against Boston College under its belt, a team with a similar profile as Mississippi State - a weak offense and a strong defense. By last year's final SPRS rankings, the Yellow Jackets would be a 5 point favorite. By this year's performance on yards per play average, Georgia Tech has a two-yard advantage per play and should win by 18. We split the difference and call it by 10.
Result: Georgia Tech put 500 yards on the board offensively and won going away 38-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 7-3 in calling the winner, 7-3 against the spread.

Alabama (5.4, 3.7) is favored on the road by 8 1/2 points over Arkansas(6.8, 4.4).
Our call: 31-26 for Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have a much stronger team by stats than the game scores show. Last year, they finished 1.4 SPRS points or 13 scoreboard points better than the Crimson Tide. A comparison with last year shows that Alabama has gained .6 SPRS points = 5 points on the scoreboard plus 3 points home advantage, which would still make Arkansas a 5-point favorite in this game.
Result: Forget the Hogs, the Tide is back. Four TDs of over 60 yards - two by interceptions - sank the Petrino Razorbacks who were annihilated 49-14 by Saban's Crimson Tide.
Our prognostication performance this week: 7-4 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Albany (-5.5) at New Hampshire (-3.5)
Our call: 41-20 for New Hampshire.
Result: 32-24 for New Hampshire, who trailed 17-14 at the half.
Our prognostication performance this week: 8-4 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

San Diego (-4.5) at Campbell (unranked)
Our call: 70-0 for San Diego.
Result: San Diego actually had to work harder for this win 43-7 than expected.
Our prognostication performance this week: 9-4 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Georgetown (not ranked) at Yale (-4.4)
Our call: 37-7 for Yale.
Result: 47-7 for Yale.
Our prognostication performance this week: 10-4 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Fordham (-5.8) at Columbia (not ranked)
Our call: 28-17 for Fordham.
Result: 29-22 for Fordham against Columbia, who led 22-14 at the half.
Our prognostication performance this week: 11-4 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Stony Brook (-5.1) at Brown (6.0)
Our call: 26-21 for Stony Brook.
Result: Brown beat Stony Brook 17-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 11-5 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Dartmouth (not ranked) at Colgate (-5.0)

Our call: 35-21 for Colgate.
Result: Colgate won 34-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 12-5 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Robert Morris at Dayton (-4.4)
Our call: 38-14 for Dayton.
Result: 31-14 for Dayton.
Our prognostication performance this week: 13-5 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Princeton (-5.6) at Citadel (-3.4)
Our call: 37-14 for the Citadel.
Result: Citadel won 37-24.
Our prognostication performance this week: 14-5 in calling the winner, 7-4 against the spread.

Maryland (5.6, 5.0) is favored at home by 21 1/2 points over Eastern Michigan (5.9, 5.1).
Our call: 44-14 for Maryland.
Maryland upset 23rd-ranked Cal 35-27 after losing to Middle Tennessee 24-14 the week before. By last year's final SPRS ratings, the Terrapins would be 27 + 3 = 30-point favorites. Based on the performance in past games this season, that looks like about the right spread.
Result: Maryland won 51-24.
Our prognostication performance this week: 15-5 in calling the winner, 8-4 against the spread.

South Carolina State (-3.2) at Clemson (-0.3)
Our call: 39-10 for Clemson
SC State had a final SPRS rating last year of -3.2 and Clemson -0.3, a difference of 2.9 x 9 = 26 plus 3 points for home field advantage = 29 points.
Result: Clemson won 54-0.
Our prognostication performance this week: 16-5 in calling the winner, 8-4 against the spread.

Akron (5.8 offense, 6.1 defense) is favored on the road by 7 points over Army (3.9, 5.3). Our call: 30-24 for Akron.
Last year, the net average yards per play offense and defense were 4.6 and 5.5 for Akron and 4.2 and 5.7 for Army, only difference of about 4 points on the scoreboard. Now that difference looks like about 9 to 10 points, but minus the 3-point home field advantage for Army, about 6 to 7 points. We call it 30-24 for Akron. We see that the official line has since moved from 7 points to 10 points in favor of Akron.
Result: Akron beat Army 22-3.
Our prognostication performance this week: 17-5 in calling the winner, 8-5 against the spread.

Boston College (4.2, 4.5) is favored at home by 11 points over UCF (4.0, 4.9).
Our call: 31- 26 for Boston College.
Last year BC would have ranked 1.3 x 9 = 13 points better than Central Florida. This year, it looks like about a 5 point advantage, including the 3 points home field advantage. We call it 31-26 for BC.
Result: Boston College trailed 7-3 at the half but won 34-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 18-5 in calling the winner, 8-6 against the spread.

Rhode Island (-5.9) at Hofstra (-3.1)
Our call: 48-20 for Hofstra.
Result: Hofstra struggled to a 23-20 win.
Our prognostication performance this week: 19-5 in calling the winner, 8-6 against the spread.

Western Carolina (-5.8) at Presbyterian (-6.1)
Our call: Western Carolina 30-23.
Last year, Western Carolina beat Presbyterian 33-20 at home. On the road it should be closer.
Result: 23-21 for Western Carolina.
Our prognostication performance this week: 20-5 in calling the winner, 8-6 against the spread.

Delaware (-2.5) at Furman (-3.9)
Our call: 31-21 for Delaware.
Result: Furman upset Delaware 23-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 20-6 in calling the winner, 8-6 against the spread.

Missouri (8.3, 5.1)is favored at home by 33 1/2 points over Buffalo (6.2, 5.4).
Our call: 54-27 for Missouri
By last year's SPRS stats, the Tigers would be 43-point favorites and by this year's comparative yardage stats, 25-point favorites, whereas the Buffalo yards per play stats show the Bulls to be 10 points better this year than last year. The Missouri offense is so good, however, that the Buffalo offense will also have to move the ball against the Tigers relatively ordinary defense to stay close. We err on the side of Turner Gill and his team and call it 54-27 for Missouri. The Tigers have been criticized for running up the score in past games, so they may go a bit easier this game.
Result:
Chase Daniel passed for 431 Mizzou yards as Buffalo put up a valiant effort, at one point in the 3rd quarter trailing only 27-21, and kept the score respectable, as Missouri won 42-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 21-6 in calling the winner, 9-6 against the spread.

Indiana State (not rated) at Northern Illinois (-5.1)
Our call: 34-13 for Northern Illinois
Result: 48-3 for Northern Illinois.
Our prognostication performance this week: 22-6 in calling the winner, 9-6 against the spread.

Tulane (4.0, 4.4) is favored at home by 6 points over Louisiana-Monroe (5.1, 6.2).
Our call: 31-24 for Tulane.
Tulane lost to Alabama but actually had the statistical advantage and last week nearly knocked off East Carolina. By SPRS final ratings from last year, Louisiana-Monroe would be favored by 9 points. The current yards per play statistic would favor Tulane by 10 points.
Result: Tulane won 24-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 23-6 in calling the winner, 10-6 against the spread.

Arizona (6.2, 4.0) is favored on the road by 1 point over UCLA (4.1, 5.5).
Our call: 31-21 for Arizona.
How could the Bruins beat Tennessee 27-24 and then lose to BYU 59-0? Actually, the Vols had better stats and UCLA should never have won that game.
Last year's ratings would have made Arizona about 3 points better than UCLA but without the home field advantage would have pointed to an even game. This year's ratings would suggest that the Wildcats are the stronger team, perhaps having both a better offense and a better defense. We call it for Arizona 31-21.
Result: Arizona won 31-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 24-6 in calling the winner, 11-6 against the spread.

Maine (-4.9) at Richmond (-2.5)
Our call: 39-14 for Richmond.
Result: 44-17 for Richmond.
Our prognostication performance this week: 25-6 in calling the winner, 11-6 against the spread.

UC Davis (-4.8) at Montana (-3.7)
Our call: 27-14 for Montana.
Result: Montana won 29-24.
Our prognostication performance this week: 26-6 in calling the winner, 11-6 against the spread.

Brigham Young (7.0 , 5.0) is favored at home by 26 1/2 points over Wyoming (4.3 , 4.7).
Our call: 44-14 for BYU
Last year BYU (5.8, 4.6) ranked 16th in the final SPRS rankings with a rating of -0.2 and Wyoming (4.4, 4.6) ranked 87th with a rating of -2.7. The Cowboys lost to the Cougars 35-10 at home. The difference of 2.5 rating points is equal to 23 points on the scoreboard plus the 3 points home field advantage = 26 points. As one can see from the average yards per play on offense and defense, the Cowboys are virtually the same team this year as last, whereas BYU appears to be somewhat stronger overall, with a 59-0 whitewash of UCLA last week. We call it for BYU 44-14.
Result: BYU posted its second straight shutout, 44-0.
Our prognostication performance this week: 27-6 in calling the winner, 12-6 against the spread.

Northeastern (-4.9) at Syracuse (-4.3)
Our call: 34-24 for Syracuse.
Result: Syracuse won 30-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 28-6 in calling the winner, 12-6 against the spread.

Houston (6.5, 6.3) is favored on the road by 6 points over Colorado State (5.3, 5.5).
Our call: 34-31 for Houston.
By last year's final SPRS stats, Houston would be favored by 6 points minus 3 points home advantage for Colorado State = 3 points. The yards per play average comparison gives a .4 rating edge to Houston = 3 to 4 points. We call it by 3.
Result: Colorado State won 28-25 as Houston with ten seconds left on 3rd down tried to make the TD from the 15-yard line rather than go for the percentage field goal to take the game into overtime. The pass was intercepted.
Our prognostication performance this week: 28-7 in calling the winner, 13-6 against the spread.

Rutgers (5.2, 6.5) is favored on the road by 5 points over Navy (7.3, 6.2).
Our call: 28-24 for Navy.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Rutgers would be favored by about 20 points. However,
the heralded Rutgers defense (last year 4.9 yards per play) this year is in a shambles and ranks 108th in the nation by yards per play allowed. By comparative yards per play this year, Navy would be favored by 25. We split the difference and call it in favor of Navy by a field goal for reason of the home field advantage.
Result: Navy won 23-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 29-7 in calling the winner, 14-6 against the spread.

Michigan State (5.3 , 5.6) is favored at home by 8 1/2 points over Notre Dame (4.9 , 5.1).
Our call: 27-24 for Michigan State.
By last year's SPRS stats, the Spartans would be 18 + 3 = 21 point favorites. This year, however, after the Fighting Irish win over Michigan 35-17 last week, the game looks much closer. Notre Dame recruiting has ranked in the top 10 since 2006, so this is going to come to bear on the Irish football fortunes sometime, but the team may not yet be far enough along to beat the Spartans yet. We call it for Michigan State 27-24 based primarily on the home field advantage.
Result: Michigan State won 23-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 30-7 in calling the winner, 14-7 against the spread.

North Carolina (6.6, 5.2) is favored at home by 1 1/2 points over Virginia Tech (4.6, 5.5 ).
Our call: 38-26 for North Carolina.
The Virginia Tech offense is not much worse this year than last, but the defense is much weaker. North Carolina under head coach Butch Davis demolished Rutgers last week and looks like it has the offense to take it to the Hokies, who themselves have little to throw back at the Tar Heels. By last year's SPRS stats, Virginia Tech would be favored by 12. By comparative yards per play this season, North Carolina would be favored 24. by We split the difference and call it 38-26 for North Carolina.
Result: Virginia Tech won 20-17.
Our prognostication performance this week: 30-8 in calling the winner, 14-8 against the spread.

Southern Miss (5.5, 5.7) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over Marshall (5.8, 5.5).
Our call: 31-28 for Southern Miss.
Last year these teams were rated almost equal and the same appears to be true this year, so that we call the difference as the home field advantage.
Result: Marshall won 34-27.
Our prognostication performance this week: 30-9 in calling the winner, 15-8 against the spread.

Florida (6.4, 3.1) is favored on the road by 7 1/2 points over Tennessee (6.1 , 4.2).
Our call: 38-28 for Florida.
Last year Florida finished 1.6 SPRS rating points higher than Tennessee = 14 to 15 points on the scoreboard. Current stats make Florida 1.4 rating point better = 13 scoreboard points, subtracting the Vols home field advantage gives Florida the nod by 10.
Result: Florida won 30-6.
Our prognostication performance this week: 31-9 in calling the winner, 16-8 against the spread.

Alabama State at UAB (-5.4)
Our call: UAB 41 Alabama State 27.
Result: UAB won 45-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 32-9 in calling the winner, 16-8 against the spread.

Utah (5.6, 3.4) is favored on the road by 7 1/2 points over Air Force (5.0, 4.7).
Our call: 24-14 for Utah.
The SPRS final rankings for last year had Utah 40th and Air Force 41st. By current net yards per play, Utah would be favored by 20 points. We split the difference at 10 points.
Result: Utah won 30-23.
Our prognostication performance this week: 33-9 in calling the winner, 16-9 against the spread.

Culver-Stockton (not ranked) at South Dakota (-2.5)
Our call: 51-6 for South Dakota.
Result: South Dakota won 70-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 34-9 in calling the winner, 16-9 against the spread.

Texas State (-6.1) at Northern Colorado (not ranked)
Our call: 28-27 for Northern Colorado on the basis of the home field advantage.
In 2006, Texas State lost at home by one point to Northern Colorado.
Result: Texas State reversed the table this year and won on the road 38-35.
Our prognostication performance this week: 34-10 in calling the winner, 16-9 against the spread.

Oregon (6.7, 4.0) is favored at home by 12 1/2 points over Boise State (7.6, 3.7).
Our call: 48-45 for Oregon.
The Ducks have been inconsistent, lucking out to win 32-26 against Purdue in two overtimes last week, whereas Boise State has been unimpressive against two weak opponents.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Oregon would be favored by 17 points. By yards per play comparison this season, Boise State would be favored by 8. If we split the difference we arrive at the 12.5 official line. We think this game should stay close and thus call it for Oregon 48-45.
Result: Boise State beat Oregon 37-32.
Our prognostication performance this week: 34-11 in calling the winner, 17-9 against the spread.

Miami (FL) (4.5 , 4.1) is favored on the road by 3 points over Texas A&M (4.3 , 5.3).
Our call: 27-17 for Miami of Florida.
By last year's SPRS stats, the Aggies would be about a 7-point favorite in this game. But Texas A&M lost its season opener to Arkansas State and has been struggling under the new pro-style offense of head coach Mike Sherman, who replaced Dennis Franchione in November of 2007, so that it is difficult to know how long those problems will persist. You have to adapt your offense to the players you have, not vice versa (original tone, Larry Kehres, Mount Union). This game looks like a battle of two inept offenses against the defensive squadrons, which would give the edge to the Hurricanes by 13, minus the home field advantage of 3 points = 10 points.
Result: Miami of Florida won 41-23.
Our prognostication performance this week: 35-11 in calling the winner, 18-9 against the spread.

Utah State (4.0, 6.5) is favored at home by 4 1/2 points over Idaho (5.2, 5.9).
Our call: 30-24 for Utah State.
Last year Idaho lost 24-19 at home. By last year's SPRS ratings, Utah State would be favored by 6 points over Idaho.
Result: Utah State won 42-17.
Our prognostication performance this week: 36-11 in calling the winner, 19-9 against the spread.

South Florida (6.4, 4.1) is favored on the road by 28 points over Florida International (3.0, 5.8).
Our call: 49-7 for South Florida.
For Florida International, it is one yard forward and two yards back, as their defense allows two yards per play to every one yard that their offense gains. Pursuant to last year's SPRS ratings, the Bulls would be favored over the Owls by 43. By comparative yards per play this season, this would be 42 points.
Result: Who could possibly imagine that South Florida would only win by 8 points, 17-9, against winless Florida International? It is hard to believe that these Bulls beat Kansas.
Our prognostication performance this week: 37-11 in calling the winner, 19-10 against the spread.

Murray State (not rated) at Western Kentucky (-3.3)
Our call: Western Kentucky 49-13 over Murray State.
Result: Western Kentucky won 50-9.
Our prognostication performance this week: 38-11 in calling the winner, 19-10 against the spread.

Tennessee Tech (not rated) at Western Michigan (-4.0)
Our call: 45-14 for Western Michigan
Result: Western Michigan won 41-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 39-11 in calling the winner, 19-10 against the spread.

Louisiana-Lafayette (5.0, 6.4) is favored at home by 2 1/2 points over Kent State (5.5 , 5.3).
Our call: 35-24 for Lafayette.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Lafayette would be favored by 8 + 3 = 11 points.
Result: Lafayette won 44-27.
Our prognostication performance this week: 40-11 in calling the winner, 20-10 against the spread.

Portland State (-5.2) at Washington State (-1.5)
Our call: 37-17 for Washington State
Result: Washington State won 48-9.
Our prognostication performance this week: 41-11 in calling the winner, 20-10 against the spread.

Arkansas State (7.7, 4.3) is favored at home by 5 points over Middle Tennessee (4.7, 5.0).
Our call: 35-28 for Arkansas State
Last year, these teams, clearly stronger this year, were nearly even in the ratings and rankings, with Middle Tennessee holding a slight edge. Both have beaten quality opponents, with Middle Tennessee upsetting Maryland two weeks ago and Arkansas State beating Texas A&M to start the season. A botched field goal cost the Red Wolves the game against Southern Miss. We call it by one TD for Arkansas State, 35-28.
Result: Arkansas State won 31-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 42-11 in calling the winner, 21-10 against the spread.

Massachusetts (-1.5) at Texas Tech (+0.2)
Our call: 42-24 for Texas Tech.
Result: 56-14 for Texas Tech.
Our prognostication performance this week: 43-11 in calling the winner, 21-10 against the spread.

Cincinnati (5.9 , 6.1 ) is favored at home by 12 1/2 points over Miami (OH) (4.8 , 5.2).
Our call: 41-17 for Cincinnati.
Last year Cincinnati (SPRS rating of -0.3 last year) averaged 6.0 yards per play on offense as opposed to 5.0 yards on defense and Miami of Ohio (SPRS rating of 3.1 last year) averaged 5.1 and 5.2 yards respectively. This year the Bearcats were mauled by the Sooners, which gives them worse stats than they will have at the end of the year. With the home field advantage, based on last year's final ratings, Cincinnati would by favored by 24 points by SPRS.
Result: Cincinnati won 45-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 44-11 in calling the winner, 22-10 against the spread.

Florida State (8.4, 3.2), ranked 24th, is favored at home by 4 1/2 points over Wake Forest (4.7 , 4.8), ranked 18th.
Our call: 41-31 for Florida State.
In last year's final SPRS rankings, Wake Forest (4.7, 4.6) was ranked 35th and Florida State 38th (5.3, 5.1), as the Seminoles lost on the road to the Demon Deacons 24-21. Florida State has thus far put up super stats against undermanned teams, so this will be a true test.
Result: The Wake Forest defense continues to astound, beating the Seminoles 12-3. Incredible.
Our prognostication performance this week: 44-12 in calling the winner, 22-11 against the spread.

Fresno State (6.2 , 4.9) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Toledo (5.4, 5.2).
Our call: 27-17 for Fresno State.
Last year the Bulldogs had stats of 6.0 and 5.6 and the Rockets had stats of 5.9 and 6.3 on yards per play offense and defense. By last year's final SPRS rating, Fresno State (-1.9) would be favored over Toledo (-4.0) by 19 (2.1 x 9)minus 3 points = 16 points. This year, the yards per play shows a 1.1 point better rating performance by Fresno State = 10 points minus the Toledo home field advantage = 7 points. We think the Bulldogs are even stronger than that, judged by a 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which Fresno State was the more dominating team statistically, and call it by 10 for Fresno State.
Result: A real barnburner, as Fresno State won 55-54 in two overtimes.
Our prognostication performance this week: 45-12 in calling the winner, 22-12 against the spread.

Georgia (7.1 , 4.6) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Arizona State (7.0 , 4.2).
Our call: 31-27 for Georgia.
The Sun Devils lost ignominiously to UNLV in overtime last week 23-20, a Rebel team which last year won only two games and which had been soundly beaten by Utah 42-21 the previous week. Last year, Georgia finished 0.9 rating points higher than Arizona State = 8 scoreboard points minus the Sun Devil home field advantage of 3 points = 5 scoreboard points. This season, the Bulldogs rank .5 points higher on comparative yards per play = 4.5 scoreboard points.
Result: Georgia dominated Arizona State 27-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 46-12 in calling the winner, 22-13 against the spread.

Indiana (6.1, 3.7) is favored at home by 3 1/2 points over Ball State (7.6 , 5.4).
Our call: 35-27 for Indiana.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Indiana would be favored by 9 + 3= 12 points. Current yards per play averages would give the edge to Indiana by 2 + 3 = 5 points. We split the difference and call it by 8 points for Hoosiers, 35-27.
Result: Zounds! Ball State pummeled the Hoosiers 42-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 46-13 in calling the winner, 22-14 against the spread.

LSU (6.9 , 3.6) is favored on the road by 2 points over Auburn (5.0, 3.2).
Our call: 20-10 for LSU.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, LSU had a rating advantage of 1.6 and would be a 14 (1.6 x 9) minus 3 = 11 point favorite in this game. By current yards per play average, LSU holds a similar comparative 1.5 yards per play edge. We call it for LSU by 10.
Result: LSU won 26-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 47-13 in calling the winner, 23-14 against the spread.

Mississippi (6.7, 4.5) is favored at home by 5 1/2 points over Vanderbilt (5.2 , 5.1).
Our call: 28-21 for Mississippi
By last year's SPRS stats, Vanderbilt rated 0.3 rating points better than Mississippi = 3 points, which would make this game even because of the Old Miss home field advantage. Except for a squeaker 2-point lost to Wake Forest, Houston Nutt is off to a good start at Mississippi, as the yardage stats also show, which give the Rebels 2.1 yard per play advantage = 19 points. Vandy may be undefeated, but we do not see them winning on the road against Ole Miss and call it 28-21 for Mississippi.
Result: Correction. Vandy did beat Mississippi on the road 23-17 in spite of the Rebels putting up 385 total yards offense to Vanderbilt's 202.
Our prognostication performance this week: 47-14 in calling the winner, 23-15 against the spread.

Stanford (4.1, 5.5) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over San Jose State (5.3, 4.3).
Our call: 27-22 for Stanford
Last year Stanford was rated by SPRS at -3.3 and San Jose State at -3.5, which is about 2 scoring points, plus the home field advantage would make the Cardinal a 5 point favorite.
Result: Stanford won 23-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 48-14 in calling the winner, 23-16 against the spread.

TCU (4.9, 3.2) is favored on the road by 24 points over Southern Methodist (5.9, 6.7).
Our call: 35-10 for TCU.
The final SPRS ratings from last year would make TCU a 32 point favorite minus the SMU home field advantage = 29 points. By comparative net average yards per play this season, TCU is 2.5 points better = 23 points minus 3 = 20 points. We split the difference since SMU is somewhat better this year than last.
Result: TCU won 48-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 49-14 in calling the winner, 24-16 against the spread.

Texas (6.4, 5.1) is favored at home by 30 1/2 points over Rice (5.8, 6.1).
Our call: 51-17 for Texas.
By SPRS final ratings from last year Texas would be favored by 52 points over Rice, but by comparative yards per play this season, the Longhorns would be favored only by 17. We split the difference at 34 points.
Result: Texas won 52-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 50-14 in calling the winner, 25-16 against the spread.

Tulsa (8.7, 5.9) is favored at home by 10 points over New Mexico (4.5, 4.3).
Our call: 40-14 for Tulsa
Last year the teams were virtually even by SPRS ratings. The Lobos have a good defense which should cut down the Tulsa points production, but we give the edge to Tulsa here by 2.6 points x 9 = 23 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 26 points.
Result: Tulsa won 56-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 51-14 in calling the winner, 26-16 against the spread.

UNLV (4.9, 5.9) is favored at home by 3 points over Iowa State (5.6, 5.5).
Our call: 27- 21 for Iowa State.
The final ranking by SPRS for these teams last year was 134th and 135th. UNLV upset Arizona State last week. By yards per play comparison, Iowa State should win by about 9 points minus the 3-point UNLV home field advantage = 6 points.
Result: UNLV beat Iowa State in overtime 34-31.
Our prognostication performance this week: 51-15 in calling the winner, 26-16-1 against the spread.

UTEP (4.8, 7.0) is favored at home by 6 points over New Mexico State (4.8, 8.1).
Our call: 48-37 for UTEP.
This is a battle of two of the worst defenses in the country. By last year's SPRS rating, UTEP would be a 9 point favorite. By current yards per play average, UTEP would be about a 13 point favorite.
Result: New Mexico State won 34-33.
Our prognostication performance this week: 51-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Nicholls State (not rated) at Memphis (-4.3)
Our call: 40-13 for Memphis.
Nicholls State was not in the top 250 of the SPRS ratings last year and Memphis had a final SPRS rating last year of -4.3.
Result: Memphis won 31-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 52-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Wofford (-3.1) at South Carolina (-1.2)
Our call: 37-17 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina won 23-13.
Our prognostication performance this week: 53-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Sam Houston State (-4.2) at Kansas (+0.8)
Our call: 55-7 for Kansas.
Result: Kansas won 38-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 54-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Southeastern Louisiana (-5.8) at Louisiana Tech (-4.1)
Our call: 38-20 for Louisiana Tech.
Result: Louisiana Tech won 41-26.
Our prognostication performance this week: 55-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Appalachian State (-1.6) at James Madison (-2.2)
Our call: James Madison 36-35 over Appalachian State.
This is one of the best games of the day, matching the threepeat Division I-AA FCS champion with one of the perennial powerhouses in Division I-AA, James Madison, who the Mountaineers were lucky to beat in the playoffs 28-27 last year. After their initial 41-13 loss to LSU, Appalachian State clobbered Jacksonville 56-7, who in turn the next week beat Campbell 52-0. James Madison has a very strong team again this year, beating UMass 52-38 last week. As we now know, the opening 31-7 loss to Duke was not to a classically weak Duke team but to strong, revamped Blue Devils under new coach David Cutcliffe. Armanti Edwards of the Mountaineers was not his usual dominating self in the game against Jacksonville, so we are not sure if he is 100% healthy. We are Mountaineer fans, but we think James Madison may have the edge here because of the home field advantage.
Result: James Madison won 35-32.
Our prognostication performance this week: 56-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Weber State (-4.4) at Sacramento State (-5.4)
Our call: 30-24 for Weber State.
Result: Weber State won 32-27.
Our prognostication performance this week: 57-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

South Dakota State (-3.3) at Northern Iowa (-1.9)
Our call: 37-21 for Northern Iowa.
Result: Northern Iowa won 34-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 58-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Jacksonville State (not rated) at Chattanooga (-4.8)
Our call: 28-21 for Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State in its last game beat Alabama A&M 45-18, which in our SPRS ratings last year had a rating of (-4.8). Jacksonville State the previous week lost to Georgia Tech 41-14. Last year they beat Chattanooga at home 33-19, so we make them the favorites here.
Result: Jacksonville State won 31-3.
Our prognostication performance this week: 59-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Cornell (-5.8) at Bucknell
Our Call: 35-28 for Cornell.
Result: Cornell won 21-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 60-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

North Carolina A&T (not rated) at Hampton (-6.0)
Our call: 24-17 for Hampton.
Result: Hampton won 44-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 61-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Prairie View A&M (-5.6) at Mississippi Valley State (not rated)
Our call: 33-24 for Prairie View A&M
Result: Prairie View A&M won 49-15.
Our prognostication performance this week: 62-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Eastern Kentucky (-4.5) at Tennessee State (-5.9)
Our call: 31-21 for Eastern Kentucky
Result: Tennessee State won 34-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 62-17 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Morgan State (-5.8) at Winston-Salem (not rated)
Our call: 28-21 for Morgan State
Result: Morgan State won 21-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-17 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

North Dakota State (-1.4) at Youngstown State (-3.6)
Our call: 31-17 for North Dakota State
The Bison gave their last game away at Wyoming and lost 16-13 on a last-second field goal after an unnecessary last-minute interception.
Result: Youngstown State won 32-24.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-18 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Elon (-3.6) at Georgia Southern (-3.1)
Our call: 38-30 for Georgia Southern.
Elon beat Presbyterian 66-12 last week but Georgia Southern is a different caliber of opponent, who lost to Georgia only 45-21 to start the year. In 2007, the Phoenix of Elon beat the Eagles of Georgia Southern at home 36-33. This year we give the home edge to Georgia Southern.
Result: Elon won 22-20 on a field goal with 6 seconds left on the clock.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-19 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Towson (-5.2) at Coastal Carolina (not ranked)
Our call: 28-17 for Towson.
Result: Coastal Carolina won 31-3.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Central State at Alabama A&M (-4.8)
Our call: 34-17 for Alabama A&M.
Result: Alabama A&M won 37-17.
Our prognostication performance this week: 64-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Tennessee-Martin (-5.7) at Austin Peay (not ranked)
Our call: 27-20 for Tennessee-Martin.
Last year Austin Peay beat Tennessee-Martin at home 17-14 and they are hosting Tennessee-Martin again. Last week, Tennessee-Martin beat Concordia College 87-21.
Result: Tennessee-Martin won 31-17.
Our prognostication performance this week: 65-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Quincy (not ranked) at Central Arkansas (-4.7)
Our call: 40-10 for Central Arkansas.
Central Arkansas is undefeated and beat a strong UC Davis team 24-21.
Result: Central Arkansas won 51-6.
Our prognostication performance this week: 66-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Cal Poly (-3.7) at Northwestern State (-6.0)
Our call: 35-17 for Cal Poly.
Result: Cal Poly won 52-18.
Our prognostication performance this week: 67-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Norfolk State (-5.8) at William & Mary (-4.0)
Our call: 40-21 for William & Mary.
Result: William & Mary won 42-12.
Our prognostication performance this week: 68-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Jackson State (-4.4) at Grambling State (-4.7)
Our call: 31-30 for Grambling State.
These teams played twice last season with Grambling State winning the first 30-20 and Jackson State winning the second 42-31. This game could go either way, so we go with the home team.
Result: Grambling State won 14-5.
Our prognostication performance this week: 69-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Stephen F. Austin (not rated) at Western Illinois (-3.3)
Our call: 49-10 for Western Illinois.
Western Illinois opened its season by nearly beating Arkansas and last week beat a very strong South Dakota State team.
Result: Western Illinois won 34-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 70-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Eastern Illinois (-5.2) at Illinois State (-5.1)
Our call: 31-24 for Illinois State.
Last year Eastern Illinois lost at home to Illinois State 24-21.
Result: Eastern Illinois won 25-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 70-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Northern Arizona (-4.6) at Southern Utah (-5.7)
Our call: 38-17 for Northern Arizona.
The Lumberjacks have a very strong team this year, losing only 30-13 to Arizona State to open the season and then overpowering New Mexico Highlands 68-10.
Result: Northern Arizona won 19-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 71-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Western Washington (not rated) at Eastern Washington (-3.0)
Our call: 40-14 for Eastern Washington.
Eastern Washington has a strong team, losing its first games to Texas Tech and Colorado of the Big 12, but by comparative scores, Western Washington might be 3 TDs better than last year so that Western Washington could be assigned a rating now of about -5.5.
Result: Eastern Washington won 52-31.
Our prognostication performance this week: 72-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Ferris State (-4.3) at Grand Valley State (-1.0)
Our call: 40-7 for Grand Valley State.
Result: Grand Valley State won 31-13.
Our prognostication performance this week: 73-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Abilene Christian (-3.2) at Southeastern Oklahoma (not ranked)
Our call: 58-10 for Abilene Christian.
Who will beat Abilene Christian this year? Maybe nobody. Abilene Christian opened their season with an impressive 44-27 win over perennial Division II power Northwest Missouri State, a victory which catapulted them into the top 5 of the Division II rankings. Abilene Christian has a phenomenal offense led by a quarterback named Billy Malone, who might have a shot at the Harlan Hill Trophy this year, and whose name might even pop up one of these next years in the NFL. Read the remarkable story, as reported by Kevin Sherrington of WFAA.com, from which we quote as follows:

"Last year, [Malone] passed for more yards than any ACU quarterback since Clint Longley and led the Wildcats to their first postseason appearance in 30 years. This season – which just ended in the second round with an improbable 76-73 triple-overtime loss to Chadron State in Nebraska – he trashed the record books.

Under third-year coach Chris Thomsen and offensive coordinator Ken Collums, the Wildcats set or tied 82 NCAA, Lone Star Conference and ACU records, including the score of their last game. ACU also became the first school in NCAA history to field a 3,500-yard passer, 2,000-yard rusher and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, all in one season.

Get this: All four will be back next season, including Malone, who, at 6-3, 235 pounds, turns 25 in April."

Result:
We missed the actual score by only a point, as Abilene Christian demolished Southeastern Oklahoma State 59-10 behind Billy Malone's 317 passing yards and 3 passing TDs.
Our prognostication performance this week: 74-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

North Alabama (-3.0) at West Georgia (not ranked)
Our call: 47-14 for North Alabama.
Result: North Alabama won 53-0.
Our prognostication performance this week: 75-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Nebraska-Omaha (-1.7) at Missouri Southern State (-5.0)
Our call: 41-14 for Nebraska-Omaha.
Result: Nebraska-Omaha won 40-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 76-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Ouachita Baptist (not ranked) at Valdosta State (-2.3)
Our call: 30-7 for Valdosta State.
Valdosta State does not have the same strength as last year when it won the Division II championship. Last year Ouachita Baptist lost 31-3 at Valdosta State.
Result: Valdosta State won 29-6.
Our prognostication performance this week: 77-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Ohio Northern (not ranked) at Mount Union (-3.3)
Our call: 42-0 for Mount Union.
The top-ranked Mount Union Purple Raiders opened their season with a 33-3 win over 10th-ranked St. John Fisher in Division III football as Nate Kmic ran for 231 yards and Greg Micheli passed for 224 yards. Mount Union had an 8.2 to 3.9 advantage in the average net yards gained per play or a NAYPPA of 4.2, the statistic which best shows a team actual dominance over another team.
Result: Mount Union won 44-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 78-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Crossposted to LawPundit.

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