Air Force is favored at home over San Diego State by 16 points. Our call: Air Force by 12 points, 30-18. According to cfbstats.com, Air Force ranks first in the nation in rushing offense with 344 yards per game and is going against an Aztec defense, much improved through coach Rocky Long, which is allowing 3.75 yards per play rushing, about average for FBS teams. The critical element for San Diego State is to get their passing game in gear against the Falcons, whereas, for the Falcons the starting QB was injured in the last game and is questionable to start. Result: Air Force won 26-14 but the Aztecs put up more total offense and held the Falcons to 243 yards rushing. They gave away the game via 4 intercepted passes and 2 fumbles for the loss, as Reggie Rembert returned one fumble for a score and interecepted two passes for Air Force. The Denverpost.com online has the final score erroneously as 26-8 [last consulted Sunday, September 27, 2009], obviously having gone to print before the last second TD of the Aztecs raised the score to 26-14. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 1-0 W-L in picking the winner and 1-0 against the spread.
Alabama is favored at home over Arkansas by 17.5 points. Our call: Our stats favor Alabama by 18 points not including the home field advantage, but the Razorbacks this year have a strong offense which ought to keep it close in spite of superior Crimson Tide personnel. We call it 38-35 for Alabama. The potent Razorback passing offense, ranked 2nd in the country behind Texas Tech in yards per game gives the Razorbacks the nationally 2nd-best team in total offense which is facing a Crimson Tide secondary that is not as good as the Alabama rushing defense, which ranks 2nd in the country in allowing only 42 yards per game, accounting for the Alabama rank as the 3rd-best team in the nation in total defense. Result: We saw this game and were very impressed by the Crimson Tide and very unimpressed by a disarrayed Razorbacks team as Alabama held Arkansas to 254 yards total offense and won easily 35-7, gaining 6.5 yards per play to a mere 3.8 yards per play for the Razorbacks, which by our stats makes Alabama the better team by 24 points, not counting the home field advantage, so that this result reflects the actual strength of both teams. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 2-0 W-L in picking the winner and 1-1 against the spread.
Arkansas State is favored at home over Troy State by 2 points. Our call: Arkansas State is favored in our stats by 13 points. We call it 27-14 for Arkansas State. Result: The Troy Trojans rolled up 507 yards total offens, 373 passing, and beat the Red Wolves 30-27. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 2-1 W-L in picking the winner and 1-2 against the spread.
Auburn is favored at home over Ball State by 32.5 points. Our call: Our stats favor Auburn by 31 points, but the Ball State defense is so weak that Gus Malzahn should have a field day. We call it 54-7 for Auburn. Auburn is ranked 8th in total offense this year and is facing the nation's 79th-ranked team in total defense. Result: The Tigers won 54-30, gaining a stupendous 8.5 yards per play to 3.9 for the Cardinals, who exposed some Auburn defensive weaknesses. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 3-1 W-L in picking the winner and 1-3 against the spread.
BYU is favored at home over Colorado State by 16.5 points. Our call: The official line is a relatively large spread for a game matching two undefeated teams. Our own stats favor BYU by only 7 points, including the home field advantage, 24-17. Result: BYU won 42-23, capitalizing on two interceptions and a blocked punt for TDs in the first quarter. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 4-1 W-L in picking the winner and 1-4 against the spread.
Boston College is favored at home over Wake Forest by 2.5 points. Our call: Boston College by 17 points, 20-3. The Eagles lead the nation in net average yards per play allowed by their defense, 2.8 yards per play, but still managed to lose to Clemson in their opener, 25-7. Result: Boston College won in overtime 27-24 in a very lucky win as Riliey Skinner tossed two TDs in the last 3:44 of the 4th quarter to send the game into extra play. Wake Forest dominated the game, gaining 7.5 yards per play to only 5.4 for the Eagles. It was a tragic loss for the Deamon Deacons. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 5-1 W-L in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.
Bowling Green is the underdog at home against Boise State by 17 points. Our call: Boise State by 14 points, 35-21. The Falcons offense fizzled in their last game against a weaker Marshall team after staying close in the previous game to a strong Missouri team. Result: Boise State rolled 49-14 averaging a sensational 8.8 yards per play to 3.8 for the Falcons. Who is going to keep this team from going undefeated during the regular season? We see no one in their schedule who will even come close. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 6-1 W-L in picking the winner and 2-5 against the spread.
Central Michigan is favored at home over Akron by 16 points. Our call: Central Michigan by 12 points, 31-19. Result: Central Michigan won 48-21. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 7-1 W-L in picking the winner and 2-6 against the spread.
Cincinnati is favored at home over Fresno State by 16 points. Our call: Cincinnati by 17 points, 38-21. Result: Cincinnati beat Fresno State 28-20 in a game in which the Bearcats had severe problems with Fresno State rushing, while outgaining the Bulldogs by an enormous 8.5 yards per play to only 5.3 yards per play, but stil being outgained in yardage as Fresno State ran 74 plays to only 42 for Cincinnati. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 8-1 W-L in picking the winner and 2-7 against the spread.
Clemson is favored at home over TCU by 1.5 points. Our call: TCU by 10 points, 21-10. Result: TCU won 14-10, as the Horned Frogs averaged 5.9 yards per play to 4.5 for the Tigers. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 9-1 W-L in picking the winner and 3-7 against the spread.
East Carolina is favored at home over Central Florida by 11.5 points. Our call: East Carolina by 3 points, 20-17. Result: East Carolina won 19-14, as the UCF Knights averaged 5.8 yards per play to the winning Pirates only 5.1 yards per play, a very poor statistic, considering they threw 41 passes. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 10-1 W-L in picking the winner and 4-7 against the spread.
Florida Atlantic is favored at home over Louisiana-Monroe by 4 points. Our call: Louisiana-Monroe by 3 points, 38-35. Our stats can lead to extreme results early in the season and sometimes need to be adjusted, otherwise they would make Monroe about a 3-TD favorite, which we thought is a bit extreme against an Atlantic team that has faced tough competition (ranked the toughest schedule thus far by Massey Ratings). Result: LA Monroe won 27-25. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 11-1 W-L in picking the winner and 5-7 against the spread.
Florida International is the underdog at home against Toledo by 1 point. Our call: Toledo by 14 points, 31-17. Result: Toledo won 41-31. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 12-1 W-L in picking the winner and 6-7 against the spread.
Florida State is favored at home over South Florida by 13.5 points. Our call: South Florida by 1 point, 31-30. Result: Hey, we called this win. Sometimes there is such a thing as destiny. South Florida won 17-7 in Tallahasee as Tallahasee hometown boy redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels, who used to live on the Seminole campus and whose father used to be the housing director at FSU, stepped in for injured starting QB Matt Grothe and carved himself a name in Florida history, as the Bulls beat one of the big three in Florida (Florida, Florida State, Miami of Florida) for the first time. Bruce Daniels, the father of B.J. is quoted at Fanhouse as saying about the event afterwards: "You can't even make this stuff up". W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 13-1 W-L in picking the winner and 7-7 against the spread.
Georgia is favored at home over Arizona State by 11 points. Our call: Georgia by 7 points, 30-23. Result: Georgia won 20-17 on a 37-yard field goal on the final play of the game as the Bulldogs gained 5.4 yards per play to only 3.4 yards per play by the Sun Devils. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 14-1 W-L in picking the winner and 8-7 against the spread.
Georgia Tech is favored at home over North Carolina by 2.5 points. Our call: North Carolina by 4 points, 21-17. Result: Georgia Tech won 24-7. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 14-2 W-L in picking the winner and 8-8 against the spread.
Houston is favored at home over Texas Tech by 1 point. Our call: Texas Tech by 1 point, 42-41. Result: Houston won 29-28, equalling the spread and showing that the Cougars are for real. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 14-3 W-L in picking the winner and 8-8-1 against the spread.
Iowa State is favored at home over Army by 10.5 points. Our call: Iowa State by 3 points, 24-21. Result: Iowa State won 31-10. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 15-3 W-L in picking the winner and 8-9-1 against the spread.
Kansas is favored at home over Southern Miss by 13 points. Our call: Kansas by 9 points, 43-34. Result: Kansas won 35-28. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 16-3 W-L in picking the winner and 9-9-1 against the spread.
Kent is favored at home over Miami (Ohio) by 7.5 points. Our call: Kent State by 7 points, 28-21. Result: Kent State won 29-19. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 17-3 W-L in picking the winner and 9-10-1 against the spread.
Kentucky is the underdog at home against Florida by 21.5 points. Our call: Florida by 24 points, 27-3. Result: Florida won 41-7 as the Gators put up 7.3 yards per play to the Wildcats 2.8. as Heisman-winning quarterback Tim Tebow was injured. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 18-3 W-L in picking the winner and 10-10-1 against the spread.
Maryland is the underdog at home against Rutgers by 1 point. Our call: Rutgers by 7 points, 24-17. Result: Rutgers won 34-13. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 19-3 W-L in picking the winner and 11-10-1 against the spread.
Memphis is favored at home over Marshall by 3.5 points. Our call: Marshall by 7 points, 30-23. Result: Marshall won 27-16. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 20-3 W-L in picking the winner and 12-10-1 against the spread.
Michigan is favored at home over Indiana by 21 points. Our call: Michigan by 17 points, 38-21. Result: Michigan won 36-33. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 21-3 W-L in picking the winner and 13-10-1 against the spread.
Mississippi State is the underdog at home against LSU by 13 points. Our call: LSU by 3 points, 24-21. Result: LSU won 30-26. Talk about a goal line stand to end the game as LSU held off what looked like a sure loss of the game, here is the play-by-play from ESPN:
"Mississippi State at 3:53 LSU MSSTW-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 22-3 W-L in picking the winner and 14-10-1 against the spread.
1st and 10 at MSST 50 Tyson Lee rush for 6 yards to the LSU 44. 30 24
2nd and 4 at LSU 44 Christian Ducre rush for 11 yards to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down.
1st and 10 at LSU 33 Christian Ducre rush for 13 yards to the LSU 20 for a 1ST down.
1st and 10 at LSU 20 Christian Ducre rush for no gain to the LSU 20.
2nd and 10 at LSU 20 Tyson Lee pass incomplete to Chad Bumphis.
3rd and 10 at LSU 20 Anthony Dixon rush for 18 yards to the LSU 2 out-of-bounds for a 1ST down.
1st and Goal at LSU 2 Anthony Dixon rush for 1 yard to the LSU 1.
2nd and Goal at LSU 1 Timeout LSU, clock 01:22.
2nd and Goal at LSU 1 Anthony Dixon rush for no gain to the LSU 1.
3rd and Goal at LSU 1 Timeout LSU, clock 01:14.
3rd and Goal at LSU 1 Tyson Lee pass incomplete, broken up by Chad Jones.
4th and Goal at LSU 1 Tyson Lee rush for no gain to the LSU 1."
NC State is seen as even at home against Pittsburgh - 0 points. Our call: Our stats also see this game as even, but the home field advantage gives our nod to NC State by 3 points, 27-24. Result: North Carolina State won 38-31. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 23-3 W-L in picking the winner and 15-10-1 against the spread.
Navy is favored at home over Western Kentucky by 29.5 points. Our call: Navy by 39 points, 49-10. Result: Navy won 38-22. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 24-3 W-L in picking the winner and 15-11-1 against the spread.
Nebraska is favored at home over Louisiana-Lafayette by 27 points. Our call: Nebraska by 35 points, 45-10, based on a 10-point home field advantage calculation. The Huskers ignominiously and impossibly lost to Virginia Tech last week in the final minutes in a hard-to-be-believed scenario of incompetence, so it is likely that they will take out their wrath on the Ragin' Cajuns, to little purpose. Only when the Cornhuskers show that they can again win against the big boys will the doubts of football analysts everywhere be stilled in judging that the Big Red has been resurrected, and that moment has not yet arrived, and may not arrive this season, given the timid offensive philosophy that marks the current coaching constellation, which could be labeled the "Cornflakes" offense and is a sad remnant of Callahan days. Result: The Huskers won 55-0, averaging 7.2 yards per play to the Ragin' Cajuns 3.5. Louisiana-Lafayette had lost 31-3 to LSU the week before. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 25-3 W-L in picking the winner and 16-11-1 against the spread.
Nevada is the underdog at home against Missouri by 7 points. Our call: Missouri by 17 points, 34-17. Result: Missouri won 31-21 as the Tigers averaged 6.6 yards per play to 4.9 for the Wolf Pack. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 26-3 W-L in picking the winner and 17-11-1 against the spread.
New Mexico is favored at home over New Mexico State by 10.5 points. Our call: New Mexico by 4 points 21-17. Result: New Mexico State won 20-17. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 26-4 W-L in picking the winner and 18-11-1 against the spread.
North Texas is the underdog at home against Middle Tennessee by 6.5 points. Our call: Middle Tennessee by 3 points, 27-24. Result: Middle Tennesse State won 37-21. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 27-4 W-L in picking the winner and 18-12-1 against the spread.
Northern Illinois is favored at home over Idaho by 16 points. Our call: Northern Illinois by 5 points, 30-24. Result: Idaho won 34-31. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 27-5 W-L in picking the winner and 19-12-1 against the spread.
Northwestern is favored at home over Minnesota by 2.5 points. Our call: Minnesota by 7 points, 31-24. Result: Minnesota beat Northwestern 35-24. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 28-5 W-L in picking the winner and 20-12-1 against the spread.
Ohio State is favored at home over Illinois by 14 points. Our call: Ohio State by 13 points, 34-21. Result: Ohio State shut out the Illini 30-0. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 29-5 W-L in picking the winner and 20-13-1 against the spread.
Oregon is the underdog at home against California by 5 points. Our call: Cal by 10 points, 34-24. Result: Oregon demolished Cal 42-3. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 29-6 W-L in picking the winner and 20-14-1 against the spread.
Oregon State is seen as even at home against Arizona. Our call: Our stats see Arizona as 20 points better but the Oregon State home venue is worth 10 points. Arizona by 10 points, 27-17. Result: Arizona beat Oregon State 37-32. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 30-6 W-L in picking the winner and 21-14-1 against the spread.
Penn State is favored at home over Iowa by 10 points. Our call: Penn State by 4 points, 21-17. This could be the battle of the day. Last year Iowa lost 4 games by a total of only 12 points. Our stats make the Nittany Lions 9 point favorites without the home field advantage of 12 points, but we can not see Iowa losing by more than a TD, if at all. Result: The Hawkeyes stunned the Nittany Lions 21-10. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 30-7 W-L in picking the winner and 22-14-1 against the spread.
Purdue is the underdog at home against Notre Dame by 7 points. Our call: Purdue by 2 points, 23-21. The Notre Dame defense is the weak link in the team. Result: Notre Dame won 24-21. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 30-8 W-L in picking the winner and 23-14-1 against the spread.
Rice is the underdog at home against Vanderbilt by 7.5 points. Our call: Vanderbilt by 24 points, 38-13. Result: Vanderbilt won 36-17. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 31-8 W-L in picking the winner and 24-14-1 against the spread.
South Carolina is the underdog at home against Mississippi by 4 points. Our call: South Carolina by 3 points, 27-24. Our stats see this game as even, not including the home field advantage, which gives the edge to the Gamecocks. Result: South Carolina won 16-10 in a game of two evenly matched teams. Result: W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 32-8 W-L in picking the winner and 25-14-1 against the spread.
Stanford is favored at home over Washington by 7 points. Our call: When one looks at the stats, it is impossible to see how the Huskies beat USC, and those same stats make the Cardinal a big favorite by about 24 points, even though one would normally expect a close game. We subjectively reduce the edge to 10 points and call it for Stanford by 10, 27-17. Result: Stanford won 34-14 as Toby Gerhart rushed for 200 yards on 27 carries. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 33-8 W-L in picking the winner and 26-14-1 against the spread.
Temple is favored at home over Buffalo by 3 points. Our call: Our stats favor Temple by 6 points without the home field advantage, i.e. 9 points total, but Buffalo is stronger than its stats indicate, as it gave the game away to Pittsburgh. Temple always seems to manage to lose to Turner Gill, so we call it for Buffalo, 27-24. Result: Temple beat Buffalo 37-13. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 33-9 W-L in picking the winner and 26-15-1 against the spread.
Tennessee is favored at home over Ohio by 22 points. Our call: Tennessee by 25 points, 32-7. The Vols played much too unimaginatively on offense against UCLA and Florida and lost those games, in spite of playing strong defensively. If Tennessee can get its offense rolling this year to match the tremendous improvement in defense, it will be tough to beat this team the rest of the year. Result: Tennessee won 34-23. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 34-9 W-L in picking the winner and 26-16-1 against the spread.
Texas is favored at home over UTEP by 36 points. Our call: Texas by 43 points, 49-7. Result: Texas won 64-7 after leading 47-7 at the half. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 35-9 W-L in picking the winner and 27-16-1 against the spread.
Texas A&M is favored at home over UAB by 13.5 points. Our call: Texas A&M by 21 points, 42-21. Result: Texas A&M won 56-19. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 36-9 W-L in picking the winner and 28-16-1 against the spread.
USC is favored at home over Washington State by 45.5 points. Our call: Ordinarily our stats would favor USC by 52 points, 59-7, but it is hard to favor this USC team by too many points as long as it is being inexplicably run by an allegedly "partying" quarterback who was certainly co-responsible for their loss against Washington. We initially favored USC for the national championship this year, but only with QBs like Barkley or Mustain at the helm. Has Pete Carroll lost his touch as he has gotten older? It could be. You do not lose to a team like Washington without some serious coaching issues. With Corp at the helm, we favor Washington State 7-6. Our call of 59-7 goes with Barkley and Mustain. Result: USC won 27-6 as Matt Barkley returned at QB to run the USC offense. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 37-9 W-L in picking the winner and 28-17-1 against the spread.
Utah is favored at home over Louisville by 14 points. Our call: our stats see this game as even, so we call the game by 3 points for the Utah home field advantage 27-24. Result: Utah won 30-14. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 38-9 W-L in picking the winner and 28-18-1 against the spread.
Virginia Tech is the underdog at home against Miami of Florida by 2 points. Our call: Miami of Florida by 14 points, 28-14. Nebraska should never have lost to the Hokies last week and it is unlikely that the Hurricane coaching staff will stumble as badly as the Husker coaching staff did against the coaching skills of Frank Beamer, who has less player talent to work with. Result: The Hokies annihilated the Hurricanes 31-7, with the Miami loss meaning that there are no undefeated ACC teams left after only a maximum of four games this season. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 38-10 W-L in picking the winner and 28-19-1 against the spread.
Wisconsin is favored at home over Michigan State by 3 points. Our call: Wisconsin by 4 points, 31-27. Result: Wisconsin beat Michigan State 38-30. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 39-10 W-L in picking the winner and 29-19-1 against the spread.
Wyoming is the underdog at home against UNLV 4 points. Our call: UNLV by 6 points, 30-24. Result: Wyoming won 30-27. W-L and Odds: Thus far this week we are 39-11 W-L in picking the winner and 29-20-1 against the spread.
After an unprecedentedly bad week in prognosticating against the spread last week by means of our YPSSYS yards per game and schedule difficulty system, it looked after the first nine games on this list as if things could get much worse, as we were 2-7 against the spread the first nine games. Thereafter, however, the leaf turned, and we were 27-12-1 against the spread the rest of the way, finishing at 39-11 in calling the winner and 29-20-1 against the spread. For the year, after four weeks, we are thus far 168-56 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but still negative 90-94-2 against the spread. This latter figure should improve as the season wears on and as the yards per play stats and schedule difficulty rankings become more accurate. [note the updated correction of the stats because of some previous errors]
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