College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 7 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 7 2009 Season

Odds used here were posted according to the odds posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Tuesday, October 13, 2009, 10:25 AM.

Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings. However, we tweak our stats in some cases and this week we are treating the home field advantage differently, since a ca. 2.66-point home field advantage at Massey Ratings appears to make a bigger point difference in the actual spread. Massey has the average score this season for 2038 football games at 35.00 points for the winner and 15.69 pints for the loser. When we look at all games, regardless of who won or lost, the home team score was 27.63 on average and the visiting team had 23.18 on average, so that the actual point spread there is 4.45 points.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

Going into this week, we are 236-93 in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no line, and we are 138-143-2 thus far against the spread. Obviously, anything below 50% is disappointing.

Here are our predictions for the 7th Week, which has some great games on tap:

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Arkansas State was the favorite in the opening line over Louisiana Monroe (LA Monroe, ULM) by 1 point but at the time of our prediction, the Red Wolves were underdogs to the Warhawks by 2 points. Our Call: LA Monroe 31-20. Result: Louisiana Monroe won 16-10. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 1-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Boise State is the favorite at Tulsa by 9.5 points. Our Call: Our own stats pretty much match the betting line. We call it for the Broncos over the Golden Hurricane, 34-24. Result: 28-21 for the Broncos in a game in which the Golden Hurricane outgained the Broncos 5.5 to 5.0 yards per play, although in the second half, the Tulsa yardage was accounted for by two long pass plays, as Boise State otherwise held Tulsa to 30 yards. Nevertheless, the Tulsa defense proved tenacious while the high-flying Tulsa offense struggled against the Broncos, gaining only 295 yards to the Broncos 380. It was a moral victory for Tulsa to stay so close and even lead in the game twice in the first half, while Boise State did not silence the BCS doubters who will point to the 45-0 Oklahoma win over Tulsa this season, but it is now very likely that Boise State will go undefeated this season, leading to another BCS scandal. Note that Tulsa gained 269 yards on Oklahoma, so that the Bronco defense is on a par with Oklahoma, while the offense is not in the Sooner league, as the Sooners gained 529 yards on Tulsa, even playing without Heisman winner Sam Bradford. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 2-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

The opening line favored South Florida by 2. Cincinnati is now the favorite at South Florida by 3 points. Our Call: The Bearcats over the Bulls 34-28. Result: After a slow start, Cincinnati won 34-17, although the game stats were pretty even in all categories, as the Bearcats gained, for them, a low 5.8 yards per play to the Bulls 5.4. The difference in the game was perhaps the superb coaching of Bearcat head coach Brian Kelly, who made key adjustments, even after starting quarterback Tony Pike had to be replaced by backup QB Zach Collaros because of an injury. The Bulls on their part failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt, an excellent coach in his own right, is quoted as saying, "I'm going to look at the film, tell them what they did right and what they did wrong … and we'll move on" but of course it might be better say "what WE did right and what WE did wrong", since coaching field managment and playcalling are often determinative for the outcome of games, and not solely player performance. Studies show it is better to applaud what was done right and positively concentrate on what will be done "righter" in the future, especially by the coaching staff. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 3-0 in calling the winner and 2-1 against the spread.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Pittsburgh is the favorite at Rutgers by 3 points. Our Call: 31-24 for the Panthers. Result: Pittsburgh won 24-17. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 4-0 in calling the winner and 3-1 against the spread.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Bowling Green is the favorite at Ball State by 3 points. Our Call: 28-20 for the Falcons. Result: Bowling Green beat the Ball State Cardinals 31-17. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 5-0 in calling the winner and 4-1 against the spread.

Louisville is the underdog at Connecticut by 10 points. Our Call: The opening line here was 13.5 in favor of the Huskies. We call the game for UConn 30-17. Result: Connecticut beat the Louisville Cardinals 38-25. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 6-0 in calling the winner and 5-1 against the spread.

Oklahoma is the underdog at Texas by 3.5 points. Our Call: The opening line favored the Longhorns by 1 point. YPPSYS stats favor Texas by 10 points, including the home field advantage, although a healthy Bradford could change things, so that this game is probably a tossup and upsets in games like this are always a danger. Nevertheless, we stick with our stats and call it for the Longhorns 37-27. Result: Texas won 16-13 as Oklahoma QB Bradford was reinjured early, so that in spite of a great game by the Sooner defense, Oklahoma was unable to put points on the board. The Longhorns held Oklahoma to minus 18 yards rushing. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 7-0 in calling the winner and 5-2 against the spread.

Ohio State is the favorite at Purdue by 12.5 points after an opening line of 14.5 points. Our Call: Our stats favor the Buckeyes by 10 points, 30-20. Result: The Boilermakers upset Ohio State, who turned the ball over 5 times, 26-18. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 7-1 in calling the winner and 6-2 against the spread.

Iowa is the underdog at Wisconsin by 3 points. Our Call: The opening line favored Iowa by 1 point. YPPSYS favors the Hawkeyes by 2 points, 30-28. Result: Iowa remained unbeaten at 7-0 by beating the Badgers 20-10. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 8-1 in calling the winner and 7-2 against the spread.

Wake Forest is the underdog at Clemson by 6 points. Our Call: Our stats make this game a toss-up. Clemson has the stronger defense but the weaker offense. We call it 24-23 for Wake Forest. Result: It was no contest as the Tigers led 31-3 at the half and won 38-3. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 8-2 in calling the winner and 7-3 against the spread.

Georgia is the favorite at Vanderbilt by 8.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Georgia by a mere 1 point because of its inept offense and the excellent Vandy defense, 22-21. Result: The Bulldogs vanquished the Commodores handily 34-10. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 9-2 in calling the winner and 7-4 against the spread.

Mississippi State is the favorite at Middle Tennessee State by 3.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS ranks these two teams even, so that we go with the home team Blue Raiders 27-23. Result: The Bulldogs beat the Blue Raiders 27-6. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 9-3 in calling the winner and 7-5 against the spread.

Army is the underdog at Temple by 8.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Temple by two touchdowns, 31-17. Result: Temple won 27-13. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 10-3 in calling the winner and 8-5 against the spread.

Wyoming is the underdog at Air Force by 11 points. Our Call: Our stats favor the Falcons by 2 touchdowns, 31-17. Result: Air Force won 10-0. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 11-3 in calling the winner and 8-6 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio is the underdog at Ohio by 13.5 points. Our Call: We favor the Bobcats 34-14. Result: Ohio won 28-7. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 12-3 in calling the winner and 9-6 against the spread.

Northwestern is the underdog at Michigan State by 13 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Michigan State 35-13. Result: Michigan State won 24-14. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 13-3 in calling the winner and 9-7 against the spread.

Nevada is the favorite at Utah State by 9 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Nevada 47-37. Result: Nevada, the nation's top rushing team, won 35-32. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 14-3 in calling the winner and 9-8 against the spread.

Central Michigan is the favorite at Western Michigan by 6.5 points. Our Call: We call it for the Chippewas 34-24. Result: Central Michigan won 34-23. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 15-3 in calling the winner and 10-8 against the spread.

Akron is the underdog at Buffalo by 10.5 points. Our Call: Our stats favor the Bulls 38-20. Result: Buffalo won 21-17. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 16-3 in calling the winner and 10-9 against the spread.

Houston is the favorite at Tulane by 18 points. Our Call: We call it for the Cougars 41-24. Result: Houston won 44-16. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 17-3 in calling the winner and 10-10 against the spread.

Rice is the underdog at East Carolina by 17.5 points. Our Call: The opening line was 20 points. We call it for the Pirates, 31-13. Result: East Carolina won 49-13. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 18-3 in calling the winner and 11-10 against the spread.

Marshall is the underdog at West Virginia by 20 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Mountaineers 41-17. Result: West Virginia won 24-7. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 19-3 in calling the winner and 11-11 against the spread.

USC is the favorite at Notre Dame by 10 points. The opening line was 11.5 points. Our Call: The Notre Dame offense is exceptional at 6.9 yards per play while the defense is terrible, giving up 6 yards per play to rank it about 100th nationally. As a result, the Fighting Irish, in spite of a super QB in Jimmy Clausen, have as good as no chance to win against Southern Cal, whose top defense will keep the Notre Dame offense in check. We also note that Mitch Mustain has been elevated to backup quarterback. If he sees action, the USC offense could take off. YPPSYS calls it for USC 41-17. Result: The Trojans blew a 34-14 lead, winning 34-27, as Notre Dame could not get the ball into the end zone in the last minute of play inside the USC 10-yard line as 3 passes went incomplete. NOT an impressive win for USC but a very good showing card for the improvement of the Fighting Irish. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 20-3 in calling the winner and 11-12 against the spread.

Texas Tech is the underdog at Nebraska by 10 points. The opening line was 5.5 points. Our Call: Our own YPPSYS rankings rank Nebraska an astonishing 5th, but we are not alone. Sagarin at USA Today ranks Nebraska 7th and the Massey Ratings and the College Football News (CFN) at Scout.com rank the Huskers 5th - and their defense is that good - but you have to be worried about this game if you are a Husker fan as the Cornhuskers looked nothing like a top-ranked team against Missouri, trailing 12-0 into the 4th quarter, which is fine for the defense, but miserable for the offense. For Texas Tech, backup QB Steven Sheffield made his debut as the Red Raider starting quarterback against Kansas State, replacing the nation's leading passer, Taylor Potts, who suffered a concussion in the Red Raiders previous game against New Mexico, where Sheffield played a bit more than a half, passing for 238 yards and 3 TDS. Against the Wildcats, in his first college start ever, he completed 33 of 41 passes for 490 yards and 7 touchdowns as Texas Tech blew K-State off the map, 66-14. In the first half, Sheffield threw 5 TDS and passed for 370 yards, a school record - and at pass-happy Texas Tech, that is something. Could it be that the Red Raiders have had their best quarterback sitting on the bench? Whether the Nebraska puff ball offense can score enough points to offset the expectable Red Raiders scoring next week is the big question. If the Huskers are lucky, Potts, a stay-in-the-pocket passer will start, which seems more to the liking of the current Husker defense. Virginia Tech beat the Huskers in the waning minutes of the game due to their scrambling quarterback, and that is what Sheffield is known for, carrying the nickname "Sticks" for his scrambling abilities. According to cfbstats.com, Nebraska ranks 16th nationally in pass defense, allowing 162.6 yards per game, while the Red Raiders rank 2nd in the nation in passing offense, gaining 421.4 yards per game, and Sheffield beat that by nearly 70 yards against K-State. We see Texas Tech scoring about 30 points against the Huskers - they scored 24 against a better Texas Longhorn defense - and we are skeptical that the timid Nebraska offense can score at least one more than that to win. The YPPSYS stats favor the Huskers by about 10 points, but I am concerned about Sheffield. As a Husker alum and fan, we call it 41-30 for Nebraska, but we would not be surprised if the Red Raiders won. The Nebraska secondary is still a question mark and a top quarterback might pick them apart, in which case the unimaginative Nebraska offense probably could not keep up with the scoring. It will be interesting to see how the defense - the Pelini specialty - manages the Red Raiders. Frankly, if Sheffield plays against the Huskers the way he did against K-State, the Huskers can't win. Result: We saw this one coming, thinking that Texas Tech would score about 30 points, and doubting that the Huskers could match that amount, and we were, sadly, right that the Husker offense stinks. It was "Reality Saturday" for Nebraska as Texas Tech took the win 31-10, although the stats were much closer than that. Zac Lee and his offensive coordinator do not know how to get the ball into the end zone and that QB should be replaced in coming games by Cody Green, who at least got one into the end zone and was on the march for a 2nd. The Husker offensive coordinator should be replaced at the end of this season to try his Cornflakes offense elsewhere. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 20-4 in calling the winner and 11-13 against the spread.

Minnesota is the underdog at Penn State by 17 points. Our Call: The Gophers are continuously improving, but are not yet a match for the Nittany Lions. We call it 30-14 for Penn State. Result: Penn State won 20-0. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 21-4 in calling the winner and 11-14 against the spread.

California is the favorite at UCLA by 3.5 points. Our Call: We call it for UCLA 17-14. Result: Cal won 45-26. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 21-5 in calling the winner and 11-15 against the spread.

North Carolina State is the underdog at Boston College by 2.5 points. Our Call: We call it for the Wolfpack 24-23. Result: Boston College won 52-20. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 21-6 in calling the winner and 11-16 against the spread.

Arkansas is the underdog at Florida by 23.5 points. Our Call: Arkansas just had an impressive win over Auburn, but the YPPSYS stats favor the Gators by 31 points 45-14. Result: Florida won 23-20. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 22-6 in calling the winner and 11-17 against the spread.

New Mexico State is the underdog at Louisiana Tech by 19.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Louisiana Tech 46-17. Result: Louisiana Tech won 45-7. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 23-6 in calling the winner and 12-17 against the spread.

Colorado State is the underdog at TCU by 21 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Horned Frogs 30-14. Result: TCU won 44-6. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 24-6 in calling the winner and 12-18 against the spread.

Kent State is the favorite by 6.5 points over Eastern Michigan. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Kent State 33-23. Result: Kent State won 28-6. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 25-6 in calling the winner and 13-18 against the spread.

Virginia is the favorite at Maryland by 3.5 points. Our Call: Our stats favor Virginia 20-13. Result: Virginia won 20-9. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 26-6 in calling the winner and 14-18 against the spread.

Delaware State at Michigan. No line. Our Call: The Wolverines get a freebie against an FCS team with a 1-3 record and a leaky defense. We call it 61-7 for Michigan. Result: Michigan never punted in the game and won 63-6. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 27-6 in calling the winner and 14-18 against the spread.

In an unusual matchup, Number 1-ranked and defending NAIA football champion Sioux Falls S.D. plays NCAA Division I-AA FCS North Dakota on the road at Grand Forks, ND at 1 p.m., October 17. The Cougars this season inter alia have an 80-0 win over Concordia University (Nebraska), a 76-3 win over Dana College, and a 64-0 win over Doane College. Statwise, their average per play is 7.3 yards against 2.7 yards allowed on defense, for a NAYPPA of 4.6. North Dakota has 3 wins and lost two games, one to Texas Tech, 38-13 and the other to the FCS 20th-ranked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 65-31, a team that beat Texas College 92-0 this year and also beat McNeese State 16-13. North Dakota is averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.7 yards on defense, for a negative NAYPPA of -1.6. Sioux Falls is thus 6.2 net yards per play better this year than North Dakota, but that figure has to be adjusted by the relative strength of schedule. The Massey Ratings rank the Sioux Falls (6-0) 223rd in the nation and their schedule thus far this year as the 536th most difficult in the country. They rank North Dakota (3-2) 150th in the nation and their schedule thus far this year as the 144th most difficult in the country. It will be interesting to see how this game progresses in terms of a matching of strengths of two different football worlds. We call it in an upset for Sioux Falls, 24-21. Result: Sioux Falls won 28-13, showing how good the best NAIA teams are. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 28-6 in calling the winner and 14-18 against the spread.

(FCS, Division I-AA) Southern Illinois (5th ranked) at Northern Iowa (2nd ranked). Our Call: Northern Iowa lost to still unbeaten Iowa 17-16 to open the season as the Hawkeyes were lucky to win, blocking two close field goal attempts in the closing seconds. Southern Illinois lost to FBS Division I-A Marshall to open the season 31-28. The Panthers would seem to have the edge on the Salukis. We call it for Northern Iowa, 41-31. Result: Southern Illinois won 27-20 in a surprise. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 28-7 in calling the winner and 14-18 against the spread.

Hawaii is the underdog at Idaho by 10.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS calls it 31-27 for Idaho. Result: Idaho won 35-23. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 29-7 in calling the winner and 14-19 against the spread.

BYU is the favorite at San Diego State by 18 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors BYU 31-17. Result: BYU beat San Diego State 38-28. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 30-7 in calling the winner and 15-19 against the spread.

Virginia Tech is the favorite at Georgia Tech by 3 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Hokies 31-24. Result: Georgia Tech won 28-23. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 30-8 in calling the winner and 15-20 against the spread.

Louisiana-Lafayette is the favorite at Western Kentucky by 7.5 points. Our Call: We call it for ULL 34-17. Result:ULL beat Western Kentucky 30-22. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 31-8 in calling the winner and 16-20 against the spread.

UAB is the underdog at Mississippi by 22 points. Our Call: We call it for Ole Miss 38-14. Result: Mississippi won 48-13. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 32-8 in calling the winner and 17-20 against the spread.

Northern Illinois is at Toledo but there is no official line, though various prognosticators favor Northern Illinois by about 1 TD. Our Call: Toledo 34-27. Result: Toledo won 20-19. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 33-8 in calling the winner and 17-20 against the spread.

Memphis is the underdog at Southern Miss by 14 points. Our Call: The opening line was 10 points. We call it for Southern Miss 40-16. Result: Southern Miss won 36-16. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 34-8 in calling the winner and 18-20 against the spread.

Baylor is the underdog at Iowa State by 2.5 points. Our Call: Our stats call it in favor of Baylor 31-21. Result: The Cyclones beat the Bears 24-10. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 34-9 in calling the winner and 18-21 against the spread.

Troy is the favorite at Florida International by 9 points. Our Call: Our stats favor Troy 37-20. Result: Troy won 42-33. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 35-9 in calling the winner and 18-21-1 against the spread.

Illinois is the favorite at Indiana by 3 points. Our Call: We call if for Indiana 27-20. Result: Indiana won 27-14. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 36-9 in calling the winner and 19-21-1 against the spread.

Texas A&M is the favorite at Kansas State by 4.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Texas A&M 38-33. Result: In a very improbable scenario, after losing 66-14 last week to Texas Tech, the Wildcats went on the rampage in beating the Aggies 62-14 in what must be the greatest week-to-week turnaround scorewise in Big 12 conference match-up history. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 36-10 in calling the winner and 19-22-1 against the spread.

Kansas is the favorite at Colorado by 10 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Kansas 41-14. Result: Colorado won 34-30 as coach Dan Hawkins finally bit the inevitable bullet and started Tyler Hansen at QB instead of his own innefectual son Cody. As Kansas coach Mark Mangino is quoted as saying: "It’s unfortunate that they picked this (last) week to take his redshirt off. I think they found their quarterback, that’s for sure."Our prognosticating record this week: We are 36-11 in calling the winner and 19-23-1 against the spread.

Miami of Florida is the favorite at UCF by 15.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS calls it 31-10 for the Hurricanes. Result: Miami won 27-7. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 37-11 in calling the winner and 20-23-1 against the spread.

Stanford is the underdog at Arizona by 4 points. The opening line was 6.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS makes Arizona a 7-point favorite, including the home field advantage. We are reluctant to call the game against our law school alma mater in Palo Alto, but here stick with the stats and call it 31-24 for Arizona. Result: Stanford led in the 2nd quarter 28-13 but did not score in the 4th quarter and wound up losing 43-38 as a last minute drive fizzled on the Wildcat 17-yard line. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 38-11 in calling the winner and 21-23-1 against the spread.

Kentucky is the underdog at Auburn by 14 points. Our Call: Auburn should bounce back from the Arkansas debacle, and we call it for the Tigers 41-17. Result: The Wildcats beat the Tigers 21-14 in a game dominated by defense. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 38-12 in calling the winner and 21-24-1 against the spread.

Florida Atlantic is the underdog at North Texas by 1.5 points. Our Call: North Texas is competing this year with Washington and SMU for the title of most improved football team in the country. We call it for the Mean Green 31-17. Result: Florida Atlantic put up 30 points in the 2nd quarter and escaped with a 44-40 win. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 38-13 in calling the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Navy is the favorite at SMU by 9 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors SMU by 1 point, 27-26. Result: An improving SMU team squandered away a 21-7 lead and wound up losing 38-35 in overtime. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 38-14 in calling the winner and 22-25-1 against the spread.

San Jose State is the underdog at Fresno State by 20 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Fresno State 48-17. Result: Fresno State won 41-21. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 39-14 in calling the winner and 22-25-2 against the spread.

Utah is the favorite at UNLV by 15.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Utah 44-7. Result: Utah won 35-15. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 40-14 in calling the winner and 23-25-2 against the spread.

Washington is the underdog at Arizona State by 6 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Arizona State 24-14. Result: Arizona State won 24-17. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 41-14 in calling the winner and 24-25-2 against the spread.

South Carolina is the underdog at Alabama by 17.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Crimson Tide by 3 TDs, 31-10. Result: Alabama won 20-6. Our prognosticating record this week: We are 42-14 in calling the winner and 24-26-2 against the spread.

Somehow we left out the Missouri vs. Oklahoma State game. The Cowboys won 33-17.

In NCAA Division II football, the number one team was knocked off for the second week in a row as West Texas A&M, with a 3-5 won-loss record this year, beat previously undefeated and top-ranked Abilene Christian 32-21, which had taken over the top spot after last week's loss by Grand Valley State.

For the season, after seven weeks, we are thus far 278-107 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 162-169-4 record against the spread.