College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 9 of the 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 9 of the 2009 Season
(game results are added to the previously posted predictions as they come in)

See our current football ratings and rankings in the previous post. Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Thursday, October 29, 2009, 10:06 AM.

Memphis (105) is the underdog at home by 7.5 points against East Carolina (96). Our call: -- Result: East Carolina won 38-19 as the Tigers gave up 3 fumbles and an interception.
This game was played already on Tuesday before we made our predictions.

Virginia Tech (9) is the favorite at home by 16.5 points over North Carolina (50). Our call: -- Result: We posted our predictions on Friday, after this game had been played and won by the Tar Heels in an upset of the Hokies, 20-17.

South Florida (27) is the underdog at home by 3 points against West Virginia (16). Our call: 24-23 for the Bulls. Result: South Florida beat the Mountaineers 30-19. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 1-0, 1-0

Syracuse (88) is the underdog at home by 14.5 points against Cincinnati (4) . Our call: Cincinnati 44-7. Result: The Bearcats beat the Orange 28-7. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 2-0, 2-0

Ball State (112) is the underdog at home by 6 points against Ohio (69). Our call: The Cardinals' fall from grace this year after Brady Hoke's move to San Diego State has to be one of the biggest negative season turn-arounds in college football history. In this game the mediocre offenses of both teams are about equal, and the edge is provided by the Ohio defense. We call it for the Bobcats 27-17. Result: Ohio won 20-17. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 3-0, 2-1

Florida International (116) is the favorite at home by 3.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette (109). Our call:Louisiana-Lafayette 35-27.
Result: The Golden Panthers beat the Ragin' Cajuns 20-17 in overtime. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 3-1, 3-1

Northern Illinois (82) is the favorite at home by 12 points over Akron (106). Northern Illinois 30-13. Our call:Result: The Huskies beat the Zips 27-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 4-1, 4-1

Baylor (48) is the underdog at home by 12.5 points against Nebraska (11). Our call: The Huskers rank 4th in the nation in scoring defense with 11.4 points, tied with Alabama. However, their offense behind the current starting QB and apparently overwhelmed offensive coordination is terrible. YPPSYS sees the Huskers as 16 points better and subtracting the 3-point Bears home field advantage, we call it 27-14 for Nebraska. Result: The Huskers won 20-10 after leading 20-0 at the half, sparked by a blocked punt for a score on the Bears first offensive sequence of the game, as a timid NU offensive coordination again marked the game for the Cornflakes offense, especially in the second half. Nebraska offensive coaching coordination needs to be replaced. Thankfully, Cody Green played quarterback the entire game, and will no doubt get better as the season wears on, even though he made several critical mistakes. Other freshmen also saw quite a bit of action. Terrific to get those young talents onto the field. See the full report at HuskerExtra.com. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 5-1, 4-2

Auburn (30) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Mississippi (13). Our call: YPPSYS stats make Mississippi 6 points better, with the edge provided by their defense, but after deducting the home field advantage, that drops to 3 points. This game is probably not to be judged by normal criteria because of the Gus Malzahn/Houston Nutt history. We call it in an upset for Auburn 27-26. Result: Auburn powered to a 31-7 lead and then hung on to win 33-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 6-1, 5-2

Iowa (23) is the favorite at home by 17.5 points over Indiana (85). Our call: 30-7 for Iowa.
Result: Iowa went into the 4th quarter trailing 24-14 as QB Ricky Stanzi threw 5 interceptions, 4 in the 3rd quarter, but the Hawkeyes and Stanzi recovered to score 28 points in the closing stanza to win 42-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 7-1, 6-2

Wisconsin (47) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Purdue (55). Our call: YPPSYS calls it 21-17 for Wisconsin. Result: Wisconsin beat Purdue 37-0. How could these Boilermakers have beaten Ohio State? W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 8-1, 6-3

Ohio State (19) is the favorite at home by 44 points over New Mexico State (115). Our call: An even bigger breather, relatively speaking, for the Buckeyes. YPPSYS would make Ohio State 43 points better, with the home field advantage, 46 points. But the Ohio State offense is not that strong this year and we can not see them scoring that many points, as the New Mexico State defense is decent - it is their offense that is terrible. We call it 38-0 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes won 45-0. Go figure. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-1, 6-4

Connecticut (42) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Rutgers (58). Our call: We also get about a 1-TD difference when we include the home field advantage. UConn has played the tougher opposition so we call it 28-20 for the Huskies. Result: Connecticut took the lead in the game 24-21 with 43 seconds left in the game but then permitted an 81-yard TD pass with 33 seconds left to lose a stunner 28-24. "End game coaching" will be learned, even with 3 freshmen in the secondary. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-2, 6-5

Florida State (71) is the favorite at home by 9.5 points over North Carolina State (52). Our call: The Seminoles have a very weak defense. We call it 27-24 for the Wolfpack.
Result: Both defense collapsed as the Seminoles won 45-42. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-3, 7-5

Houston (44) is the favorite at home by 6.5 points over Southern Miss (46). Our call: YPPSYS gives both teams the same rating, with Houston having the offense and Southern Miss the defense. Home is the advantage as we call it for Cougars over the Golden Eagles 31-24.
Result: Houston won 50-43 in a wild game as Southern Miss rallied from a 40-22 deficit to tie the game 43-43 with a bit more than a minute to play, but the Cougars scored with 26 seconds left to win. Case Keenum completed 43 of 53 passes for 559 yards and 5 touchdowns. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 10-3, 8-5

Colorado (107) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Missouri (40). Our call: Big 12 football has this year taken a bit of a beating and its North Division in particular is topsy-turvy, as Kansas State and Iowa State top the standings, while division favorites Nebraska (1-2), Kansas (1-2) and Missouri (0-3) languish in the cellar. YPPSYS makes Missouri a favorite by 23 points, minus the home field advantage, makes our call 41-21 for Mizzou. Result: Missouri built up a 33-0 lead and coasted home to a 36-17 win. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 11-3, 9-5

Kent State (86) is the favorite at home by 2.5 points over Western Michigan (91). Our call: 21-16 for the Golden Flashes. Result: Kent State won 26-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 12-3, 10-5

Tulsa (45) is the favorite at home by 15.5 points over SMU (72). Our call: Tulsa 38-28.
Result: Former Hawaii head coach June Jones is working his magic at SMU this season after a tough initial last season, as the Mustangs beat the Golden Hurricane 27-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 12-4, 11-5

Boise State (8) is the favorite at home by 35 points over San Jose State (114). Our call: Boise State will surely go undefeated this year and BCS will have a gigantic problem when the bowl matchups are made. In this game, get out the calculators as the top and the bottom of the college football spectrum meet. YPPSYS makes the Broncos 47 points better plus the home field advantage makes it 50 full. We call it 56-6 for Boise State.
Result: Boise State won 45-7. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-4, 12-5

UTEP (97) is the favorite at home by 7 points over UAB (95). Our call: UTEP 36-34.
Result: UAB beat UTEP 38-33 in spite of putting up only 378 yards to the Miners 606 yards total offense. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-5, 13-5

Miami of Ohio (110) is the underdog at home by 5.5 points against Toledo (65). Our call: The defenses are equal, but Toledo has an offense while the RedHawks do not. 31-17 for the Rockets. Result: In a real surprise, the RedHawks, previously winless at 0-8, beat the Rockets 31-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-6, 13-6

Louisville (93) is the favorite at home by 3 points over Arkansas State (84). Our call: YPPSYS favors Arkansas State 24-23. Result: Louisville won 21-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-7, 13-7

Texas Tech (15) is the favorite at home by 6 points over Kansas (33). Our call: It is hard to judge the Red Raiders currently because of their quarterback situation. YPPSYS favors the Red Raiders 37-31. Result: 42-21 for Texas Tech. Oops, we forgot to change our pick one way or the other to deviate from the spread. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-7, 13-7-1

Navy (60) is the favorite at home by 6.5 points over Temple (78). Our call: Navy 24-17.
Result: Behind 267 rushing yards by freshman Bernard Pierce, Temple under head coach Al Golden won 27-24 and became bowl eligible for the first time in 30 years. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-8, 13-8-1

Illinois (104) is the underdog at home by 7 points against Michigan (49). Our call: 31-17 for Michigan. Result: Illinois won 38-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-9, 13-9-1

Wake Forest (63) is the underdog at home by 7 points against Miami of Florida (17). Our call: Miami 30-17. Result: The Demon Deacons put up 559 yards to only 348 for the Hurricanes, who came back from a 27-14 deficit in the 4th quarter to win 28-27. One can not emphasize enough that coaches have to learn that SCORING and ultimately WINNING is the name of the game, and that gaining yards between the end zones is not the objective. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 15-9, 13-10-1

Texas A&M (64) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Iowa State (76). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Aggies 21-16. Result: Texas A&M won 35-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 16-9, 13-11-1

Virginia (67) is the favorite at home by 7.5 points over Duke (83). Our call: We somehow failed to call this game, perhaps because our calculated spread was the same as the line of 7.5 points. Result: Duke won 28-17.

Arizona State (43) is the underdog at home by 6.5 points against California (22). Our call: The powerful Cal offense meets the strong Sun Devil defense. YPPSYS stats make Cal 9 points better, minus the Arizona State home field advantage makes our call 27-21 for Cal.
Result: Cal won 23-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 17-9, 14-11-1

Boston College (39) is the favorite at home by 5 points over Central Michigan (28). Our call: The Eagles are doing well at 5-3 in spite of problematical quarterbacking, especially on the road. They can be lucky to have a home game. The Chippewas (7-1), on the other hand, have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Dan LeFevour, who this year in beating Michigan State 29-27 became the MAC's all-time total offense leader. We call it for Central Michigan 24-23.
Result: Boston College won 31-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 17-10, 14-12-1

Florida (1) is the favorite at home by 15 points over Georgia (38). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Gators by 32 points, 45-13. Result: Florida won 41-17. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 18-10, 15-12-1

TCU (5) is the favorite at home by 34.5 points over UNLV (113) . Our call: We see this game as a breather for TCU 54-0. Result: TCU won 41-0. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 19-10, 16-12-1

Colorado State (75) is the underdog at home by 6.5 points against Air Force (68). Our call: YPPSYS makes Air Force 2 points better, but with the home field advantage, this gives the odds to Colorado State, and we call it 17-16 for the Rams.
Result: Air Force won 34-16. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 19-11, 16-13-1

Florida Atlantic (103) is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against Middle Tennesee State (81). Our call: Middle Tennesee 31-24. Result: Middle Tennessee won 27-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 20-11, 17-13-1

Oregon State (53) is the favorite at home by 9.5 points over UCLA (66). Our call: Oregon State 30-20. Result: UCLA came back from a 16-0 deficit to tie the game at 19-19 but Oregon State won 26-19. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 21-11, 17-14-1

Nevada (51) is the favorite at home by 25 points over Hawaii (62). Our call: Nevada 41-34.
Result: Nevada won 31-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 22-11, 18-14-1

Northwestern (92) is the underdog at home by 15.5 points against Penn State (7) . Our call: 41-14 for the Nittany Lions. Result: After trailing 13-10 at halftime, the Nittany Lions won 34-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 23-11, 19-14-1

North Texas (90) is the favorite at home by 11.5 points over Western Kentucky (120). Our call: North Texas 44-13. Result: North Texas won 68-49 in anything but a defensive struggle. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 24-11, 20-14-1

Fresno State (36) is the favorite at home by 17.5 points over Utah State (79). Fresno State 35-17. Our call:Result: Fresno State won 31-27. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 25-11, 20-15-1

Idaho (57) is the favorite at home by 2.5 points over Louisiana Tech (89). Our call: Idaho 34-21. Result: The Vandals came back from a 2 TD deficit to win 35-34. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 26-11, 20-16-1

Arkansas (37) is the favorite at home by 35 points over Eastern Michigan (117). Our call: Our stats make the Razorbacks 36-point favorites plus the home field advantage. We call it 52-13 for Arkansas. Result: Arkansas won 63-27. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 27-11, 21-16-1

Kentucky (59) is the favorite at home by 3.5 points over Mississippi State (74). Our call: Kentucky by 7 points, 27-20.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Wildcats 31-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 27-12, 21-17-1

LSU (25) is the favorite at home by 36 points over Tulane (108). Our call: LSU has a strong defense and a weak offense so we call it 36-3 for the Tigers.
Result: LSU won 42-0. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 28-12, 21-18-1

Minnesota (73) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Michigan State (31). Our call: Michigan State 34-24. Result: Minnesota won 42-34. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 28-13, 21-19-1

Notre Dame (54) is the favorite at home by 27.5 points over Washington State (119). Our call: A breather in the schedule of the Fighting Irish. 49-10 for Notre Dame.
Result: Notre Dame won 40-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 29-13, 21-20-1

Oklahoma (12) is the favorite at home by 28 points over Kansas State (77). Our call: 38-14 for the Sooners. Result: Oklahoma won 42-30. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 30-13, 22-20-1

Oklahoma State (24) is the underdog at home by 9 points against Texas (6). Our call: YPPSYS also puts the spread at 9. We go in favor of the strong Texas defense 27-17.
Result: Texas won 41-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 31-13, 23-20-1

Oregon (10) is the underdog at home by 3 points against USC (2). Our call: USC 34-24.
Result: Oregon won 47-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 31-14, 23-21-1

San Diego State (61) is the favorite at home by 15.5 points over New Mexico (111). Our call: The Aztecs by 38-14. Result: San Diego State won 23-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 32-14, 23-22-1

Tennessee (21) is the favorite at home by 5.5 points over South Carolina (26). Our call: YPPSYS favors Tennessee by 5-6 points as well. We go with the better defense and Tennessee 24-17. Result: Tennessee won 31-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 33-14, 24-22-1

Troy State (56) is the favorite at home by 16 points over Louisiana-Monroe (41). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Warkhawks 24-23.
Result: Troy won 42-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 33-15, 24-23-1

Utah (14) is the favorite at home by 17 points over Wyoming (100). Our call: Utah 38-7.
Result: Utah won 22-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 34-15, 24-24-1

Vanderbilt (87) is the underdog at home by 11.5 points against Georgia Tech (35). Our call: Georgia Tech 27-17.
Result: Georgia Tech won 56-31. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 35-15, 24-25-1

For the season, after nine weeks, we are thus far 350-141 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 208-226-6 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole. The problem, as we discovered this week, is that the home field advantage is greater than we have calculated, so that many home teams beat the spread because of that greater home field advantage. Next week, we are going to give greater weight to the home team than we have in the past.