College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 10 of the 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions AND Results for Week 10 of the 2009 Season
(the game results as they come in are simply appended to the previously posted predictions)

See our current football ratings and rankings in the previous post. Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, November 2, 2009, 10:14 a.m - the opening line. Our ranking in parentheses is followed by the win-loss record.

Bowling Green (102) (3-5) is an underdog by 3 points at Buffalo (78) (3-5).
Our call: 42-27 for the Bulls. Result: Buffalo took a 29-16 lead into the 4th quarter and saw it vanish in an inexplicable 30-29 collapse and loss to the Falcons. We are 0-1 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

Virginia Tech (10) (5-3) is a favorite by 9 points at East Carolina (84) (5-3),
Our call: 35-17 for the Hokies. Result: Virginia Tech won 16-3. We are 1-1 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio (109) (1-8) is an underdog by 14 points at Temple (56) (6-2)
Our call: 38-14 for the Owls. Result: Temple eked out the win with a last-second field goal 34-32 We are 2-1 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan (119) (0-4) is an underdog by 19 points at Northern Illinois (87) (5-3).
Our call: 44-14 for the Huskies Result: Northern Illinois led 37-6 at the half and won going away 50-6 We are 3-1 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the spread.

Boise State (9) (8-0) is favored by 21 points at Louisiana Tech (90) (3-5).
Our call: 41-17 for the Broncos Result: 45-35 for Boise State in a totally unimpressive performance against the now 6-loss Bulldogs. Although the Broncos put up 506 yards total offense to only 248 for the Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech was able to keep close due to a long pass interception for a TD and a long kickoff return, putting the Bulldogs in position for a short TD. By the same token, the Broncos had trouble getting into the end zone, having to settle on 3 drives for field goals only. We are 4-1 in calling the winner and 2-3 against the spread.

UCF (67) (5-3) is the underdog by 36 points at Texas (5) (8-0),
Our call: 40-7 for the Longhorns Result: Texas won 35-3. We are 5-1 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.

Western Michigan (105) (4-5) is the underdog by 17.5 points at Michigan State (43) (4-5).
Our call: 48-24 for the Spartans Result: Michigan State won 49-14. We are 6-1 in calling the winner and 4-3 against the spread.

Purdue (62) (3-6) is the underdog by 7 points at Michigan (70) (5-4)
Our call: 27-21 for the Wolverines Result: Purdue won 38-36 We are 6-2 in calling the winner and 5-3 against the spread.

Louisville (91) (3-5) is the underdog by 15 points at West Virginia (21) (6-2).
Our call: 42-14 for the Mountaineers Result: West Virginia beat Louisville 17-9. We are 7-2 in calling the winner and 5-4 against the spread.

Northwestern (98) (5-4) is the underdog by 18 points at Iowa (18) (9-0).
Our call: 39-7 for the Hawkeyes Result: Northwestern upset the previously unbeaten Hawkeyes 17-10. We are 7-3 in calling the winner and 5-5 against the spread.

Syracuse (89) (3-5) is the underdog by 21 points at Pittsburgh (14) (7-1)
Our call: 40-20 for the Panthers Result: The Panthers won 37-10. We are 8-3 in calling the winner and 5-6 against the spread.

Wisconsin (36) (6-2) is favored by 5 points at Indiana (94) (4-5)
Our call: 26-14 for the Badgers Result: Wisconsin beat Indiana 31-28 We are 9-3 in calling the winner and 5-7 against the spread.

Illinois (95) (2-6) is the underdog by 4.5 points at Minnesota (69) (5-4)
Our call: 37-21 for the Golden Gophers Result: The Illini won 35-32. We are 9-4 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the spread.

South Carolina (30) (6-3) is the underdog by 4.5 points at (33) Arkansas (4-4)
Our call: 21-16 for the Razorbacks Result: Arkansas won 33-16 We are 10-4 in calling the winner and 6-8 against the spread.

Virginia (75) (3-5) is the underdog by 13.5 points at Miami of Florida (22) (6-2)
Our call: 28-6 for the Hurricanes Result: Miami won 52-17 We are 11-4 in calling the winner and 7-8 against the spread.

Kansas (38) (5-3) is favored by 3.5 points at Kansas State (76) (5-4).
Our call: YPPSYS would favor Kansas. Except for a bad start against the Sooners, Kansas State played the better football much of the game and can probably not be beaten at home by the Jayhawks. We call it 31-27 for the Wildcats. Result: Kansas State won 17-10 We are 12-4 in calling the winner and 8-8 against the spread.

Maryland (92) (2-6) is the underdog by 9.5 points at North Carolina State (55) (3-5).
Our call: 35-17 for the Wolfpack Result: North Carolina State won 38-31 We are 13-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

Tennessee Tech (NR - not ranked, but honorable mention in the FCS rankings) (5-3) at Georgia (45) (4-4). No line.
Our call: 44-21 for the Bulldogs Result: Georgia won 38-0 We are 14-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

Eastern Kentucky (no line, NR, not ranked, but honorable mention in the FCS rankings) (5-3) at Kentucky (4-4)
Our call: Eastern Kentucky lost 19-13 to Indiana to start out the season. We call it 41-20 for the Wildcats Result: Kentucky won 37-12 We are 15-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

Furman (no line, NR, not ranked in the FCS rankings) (4-4) at Auburn (6-3)
Our call: The Paladins just lost to Appalachian State and Armanti Edwards 52-27 and earlier in the season lost 52-12 to Missouri. Can the Tigers do better? Furman is averaging 5.9 yards per play both on offense and defense, which means that the Auburn offense could run wild. We call it for the Tigers 66-24. Result: Auburn won 63-31 We are 16-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

Texas A&M (52) (5-3) is favored by 1 point at Colorado (107) (2-6).
Our call: 34-20 for the Aggies Result: Colorado won 35-34 We are 16-5 in calling the winner and 8-10 against the spread.

BYU (32) (6-2) is favored by 10.5 points at Wyoming (96) (4-4)
Our call: 31-14 for the Cougars Result: BYU won 52-0 We are 17-5 in calling the winner and 9-10 against the spread.

Florida Atlantic (103) (2-5) is the underdog by 4.5 points (no line, odds taken from the Oddsmaker) at UAB (93) (3-5) Our call: 48-38 for the Blazers Result: UAB won 56-29 We are 18-5 in calling the winner and 10-10 against the spread.

Baylor (51) (3-5) is the underdog by 14.5 points at Missouri (35) (5-3). Our call: 30-17 for the Tigers Result: Baylor won 40-32 We are 18-6 in calling the winner and 11-10 against the spread.

Navy (77) (6-3) is the underdog by 11 points at Notre Dame (40) (6-2).
Our call: 39-24 for the Fighting Irish Result: Navy won 23-21 We are 18-7 in calling the winner and 11-11 against the spread.

Rice (118) (0-8) is the underdog by 16.5 points at SMU (57) (4-4)
Our call: 52-10 for the Mustangs Result: SMU won 31-28 We are 19-7 in calling the winner and 11-12 against the spread.

Louisiana Lafayette (106) (4-4) is the underdog by 13 points at Arkansas State (85) (2-5)
Our call: 31-21 for the Red Wolves Result: Lafayette won 21-18 We are 19-8 in calling the winner and 12-12 against the spread.

Oregon (6) (7-1) is favored by 5.5 points at Stanford (28) (5-3).
Our call: The Cardinal has yet to lose a home game this year, even though our own stats favor the Ducks by 4 to 6 points. As a Stanford Law School alumnus, we call it 30-27 for Stanford. Result: Stanford won in a great game for the Cardinal 51-42 We are 20-8 in calling the winner and 13-12 against the spread.

Ohio State (13) (7-2) is the underdog by 4 points at Penn State (8) (8-1)
Our call: 30-17 for the Nittany Lions Result: Ohio State won 24-7 We are 20-9 in calling the winner and 13-13 against the spread.

LSU (19) (7-1) is the underdog by 10 points at Alabama (4) (8-0)
Our call: 31-10 for the Crimson Tide Result: Alabama won 24-15 We are 21-9 in calling the winner and 13-14 against the spread.

Kent State (80) (5-4) is favored by 2 points at Akron (104) (1-7).
Our call: 20-13 for the Golden Flashes Result: Akron beat Kent State 28-20 We are 21-10 in calling the winner and 13-15 against the spread.

UTEP (100) (3-5) is favored by 10.5 points at Tulane (110) (2-6)
Our call: 40-38 for the Miners Result: The Green Wave beat the Miners in overtime 45-38
We are 21-11 in calling the winner and 14-15 against the spread.

Army (101) (3-5) is the underdog by 17 points at Air Force (63) (5-4).
Our call: 31-13 for the Falcons Result: Air Force won 35-7 We are 22-11 in calling the winner and 15-15 against the spread.

Washington (99) (3-5) is the underdog by 3.5 points at UCLA (68) (3-5)
Our call: 34-17 for the Bruins Result: UCLA won 24-23 We are 23-11 in calling the winner and 15-16 against the spread.

Oklahoma State (24) (6-2) is the favorite by 7.5 points at Iowa State (82) (5-4)
Our call: 33-21 for the Cowboys Result: The Cowboys won 34-8 We are 24-11 in calling the winner and 16-16 against the spread.

Duke (65) (5-3) is the underdog by 7.5 points at North Carolina (41) (5-3)
Our call: 27-14 for the Tar Heels Result: North Carolina won 19-6 We are 25-11 in calling the winner and 17-16 against the spread.

Wake Forest (61) (4-5) is the underdog by 15 points (no line, odds taken from the Oddsmaker) at Georgia Tech (34) (8-1). Our call: 31-17 for the Yellow Jackets Result: Georgia Tech won 30-27 in overtime We are 26-11 in calling the winner and 18-16 against the spread.

Washington State (116) (1-7) is an underdog by 31 points at Arizona (17) (5-2)
Our call: 54-0 for the Wildcats Result: Arizona won 48-7 We are 27-11 in calling the winner and 19-16 against the spread.

Louisiana Monroe (64) (4-4) is seen as even at North Texas (86) (2-6)
Our call: Our stats also narrow towards a draw, so we call it for the home team 31-30. Result: Louisiana Monroe won 33-6 We are 27-12 in calling the winner and 19-17 against the spread.

TCU (2) (8-0) is favored by 24 points at San Diego State (72) (4-4)
Our call: 30-7 for the Horned Frogs, although we will be cheering for the improving Aztecs to make it closer Result: TCU won 55-12 We are 28-12 in calling the winner and 19-18 against the spread.

Oklahoma (12) (5-3) is favored by 6.5 points at Nebraska (11) (5-3),
Our call: It is a surprise to this Nebraska alum, but the YPPSYS rankings have the Huskers ranked .1 rating point above the Sooners, plus the home field advantage, makes it a predicted win for the Cornhuskers, 27-20. To do that, the Huskers will have to bruise the opposition, rather than parked cars on the streets, i.e. judging by this story about the Husker's only All-American player and his drinking and driving antics at 2:20 a.m. on a Sunday morning, if this is typical for the "training regimen" of the darlings of Memorial Stadium, we can now better understand 8 turnovers against Iowa State. After all, you have to be able to "see" the ball to hold on to it. When players stop drinking and carousing at 2:20 a.m, get a good night's sleep and follow a sensible training program, maybe then there is actually a decent team to be found there after all - but they ALL have to be sober first. THEN let's see how they play. All of that written tongue in cheek - of course. Result: In Nebraska, if you beat Oklahoma, the unpardonable losses to Virginia Tech and Iowa State are forgiven. We were right on the money in our prediction on this one, and the final score of 10-3 in favor of the Cornhuskers shows once again that defense wins football games and is the mark of good teams, as the Huskers themselves gained only 180 yards to the Sooners 325, but Nebraska picked off 5 passes, blocked a field goal and stopped several drives near their red zone, when it counted. Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini knows what it takes on defense. Now he just has to get an offensive coordinator who is equally good in developing a viable offense. For Nebraska, we recommend someone who runs the triple option with the quarterback at shotgun - the kind of offense that Urban Meyer runs - or some variant of the triple option similar to the I-back option offense that Tom Osborne ran. Those are still the best offenses for college football - if you have the personnel for it - and teams that have abandoned the option offense are regretting it, not just Nebraska. As written at the Wikipedia about the Meyer offense: "Meyer's base offense spreads three receivers and puts the quarterback in shotgun formation. Then, he introduces motion in the backfield and turns it into an option attack, adding elements of the traditional run-oriented option offense." The Meyer offense is our favorite, which, strangely enough, developed initially due to a loss to Nebraska, as Smart Football writes,: "Meyer has recalled losing to Nebraska in 2001, and being struck when, after they lost, he found one of his best players, David Givens, crying at his locker because he was unable to help his team win: he hadn't touched the ball the entire game. He swore to run an offense that got his playmakers the ball." We are 29-12 in calling the winner and 20-18 against the spread.

Florida International (115) (2-6) is an underdog by 11 points at Middle Tennessee State (71) (5-3) Our call: 44-14 for the Blue Raiders Result: Middle Tennessee won 48-21. We are 30-12 in calling the winner and 21-18 against the spread.

Connecticut (47) (4-4) is the underdog by 12 points at Cincinnati (3) (8-0),
Our call: 37-7 for the Bearcats Result: Cincinnati won 47-45, struggling to win in spite of a school record 711 yards total offense as several big plays, such as Robert McClain's 87-yard punt return, kept the Huskies close. Connecticut has now lost 5 games by a combined total of only 15 points. By a comparison of average yards gained per play, 9.7 for the Bearcats to 6.6 for the Huskies, the Bearcats should have won by 4 touchdowns and need to prop up their defense considerably. We are 31-12 in calling the winner and 21-19 against the spread.

Florida State (60) (4-4) is the underdog by 8.5 points (no line, odds taken from the Oddsmaker) at (26) Clemson (5-3) Our call: 41-21 for the Tigers Result: Clemson went into the 4th quarter trailing 24-21 but emerged 40-24 victors. We are 32-12 in calling the winner and 22-19 against the spread.

Troy (44) (6-2) is favored by 24 points at Western Kentucky (120) (0-8)
Our call: 41-7 for Troy Result: Troy struggled, leading only 21.20 at the half, but ultimately won 40-20. We are 33-12 in calling the winner and 22-20 against the spread.

New Mexico (111) (0-8) is an underdog by 28 points at Utah (16) (7-1)
Our call: 49-7 for the Utes Result: Utah won 45-14 We are 34-12 in calling the winner and 23-20 against the spread.

Oregon State (46) (5-3) is the underdog by 6.5 points at California (27) (6-2)
Our call: 38-24 for California Result: The Beavers upset Cal 31-14 We are 34-13 in calling the winner and 23-21 against the spread.

Memphis (108) (2-6) is the underdog by 26 points at Tennessee (20) (4-4)
Our call: 46-7 for the Vols Result: The Volunteers won 56-28 We are 35-13 in calling the winner and 24-21 against the spread.

Vanderbilt (88) (2-7) is the underdog by 35 points at Florida (1) (8-0)
Our call: 55-7 for Florida Result: Florida won 27-3 We are 36-13 in calling the winner and 24-22 against the spread.

Northern Arizona (no line, NR, not rated in the FCS) (5-3) at Mississippi (23) (5-3)
Our call: The Lumberjacks lost 34-17 to Arizona to start out the season and are averaging 6.4 yards per play to the opposition 5.5. We call it 44-24 for Ole Miss Result: Mississippi won 38-14
We are 37-13 in calling the winner and 24-22 against the spread.

Houston (42) (7-1) is the favorite by 3 points at Tulsa (59) (4-4)
Our call: 41-40 for the Golden Hurricane Result: In a heartbreaking loss, Tulsa lost 46-45. Rick Couri tells the story at KRMG Sports: "Tulsa literally had the game in their hands, and couldn't hold on. Houston scored with :20 left to make the game 45-43. The Cougars then went for two and Tulsa turned them away. But the Cougars weren't finished. UH onside kicked and hit Tulsa safety Dexter McCoil square in the hands, but he couldn't hold on. Houston recovered the onside and as time expired Matt Hogan drilled a 51 yard field goal to give the Cougars a 46-45 win." There are probably worse ways to lose, but we can not think of them. We are 37-14 in calling the winner and 25-22 against the spread.

USC (7) (6-2) is favored by 14 points at Arizona State (48) (4-4)
Our call: The Southern Cal bubble has burst completely this year with the hammerhead loss to Oregon. They should have had a more experienced and opportunistic Mitch Mustain at quarterback, but decided to go with a freshman QB and still play conservative, and now they have gotten what they deserved, as the offense has fizzled and the defense has showed weakness. What can be salvaged? We call it 35-23 for USC. Result: The Oregon loss was no fluke as USC was lucky to win against the Sun Devils, 14-9, in spite of being outgained in total offense yardage 347 to 258. We are 38-14 in calling the winner and 26-22 against the spread.

Colorado State (81) (3-6) is favored by 1.5 points at UNLV (114) (3-6)
Our call: 34-17 for the Rams Result: UNLV won 35-16 We are 38-15 in calling the winner and 26-23 against the spread.

Utah State (83) (2-6) is favored by 3.5 points at Hawaii (66) (2-6)
Our call: 44-34 for the Warriors Result: Hawaii won 49-36 We are 39-15 in calling the winner and 27-23 against the spread.

Fresno State (37) (5-3) is favored by 7.5 points at Idaho (53) (7-2)
Our call: 27-26 for the Vandals Result: Fresno State won 31-21 We are 39-16 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.

In Division I-AA (the FCS)

Villanova (Pa.) (7-1) at No. 1 ranked Richmond (Va.) (8-0)
Our call: 28-21 for Richmond Result: Villanova upset the defending FCS national champions 21-20 We are 39-17 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.

In Division II

West Alabama (Livingston, Alabama) (6-4) at No. 1 ranked North Alabama (Florence, Alabama) (9-0)
Our call: 38-14 for North Alabama Result: The West Alabama Tigers stunned the top ranked Lions 31-28 in 4 overtimes. North Alabama is quarterbacked by Harrison Beck, who started out his career as a quarterback at the Universit of Nebraska, but seemed there to be plagued by interceptions, which also cost the game here. We are 39-18 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.

In Division III

Otterbein College (Westerville, Ohio) (7-1) at No. 1 ranked Mount Union (Alliance, Ohio) (8-0)
Our call: 56-7 for Mt . Union Result: Mount Union won 58-7. The Purple Raiders struggled early this season, clearly operating in a "rebuilding year" mode after the loss of several top players from last year's national championship team, but, as usual, under Larry Kehres talented coaching tutelage, the current team seems to be picking up steam again with new personnel. We are 40-18 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.

NAIA

Dordt College (Sioux Center, Iowa) (1-8) at No. 1 ranked Sioux Falls (S.D.) (9-0)
Our call: 79-0 for Sioux Falls Result: Sioux Falls won 58-0 We are 41-18 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.

On Sunday

Nevada (49) (5-3) is favored by 14 points at San Jose State (113) (1-6)
Our call: 45-23 for the Wolf Pack Result: Nevada won 62-7- This week, we were 42-18 in calling the winner and 28-24 against the spread.

For the season, after ten weeks, we are thus far 392-159 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 236-250-6 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole.