Friday, October 30, 2009

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS) through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 games

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS)
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule and adjustment for losses through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 of regular season games

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 55 for example, .55 is subtracted (rounded up as here to .6 or down to the nearest figure), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. For Pittsburgh, for example, we start with 6.4 as YPP OFF, subtract the 5.0 of the YPP DEF = 1.4 which is the NAYPPA. A penalty of .1 is also subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, and .1 for more than 6.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the best defense is rated ahead and in the case of a tie, there the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first.

The weekly ratings show that Cincinnati is slowly but surely advancing to the top of the list, albeit against weaker competition than in the SEC, where Florida still has the edge over Alabama. USC remains 2nd but continues to roll up unimpressive wins in spite of a team that is not playing as well as its stats indicate that it actually is.

Rank
After 8th Week
NAYPPA

YPP OFF

YPP DEF

Schedule

W-L

Rating
1Florida2.8

6.7

3.9

19

7-0

2.6
2
USC 2.7

7.0

4.3

17

6-1

2.5
3
Cincinnati 2.9

7.2

4.3

52

7-0

2.4
4
Alabama 2.1

6.0

3.9

10

8-0

2.0
5
TCU 2.1

6.1

4.0

29

7-0

1.8
6
Texas 2.0

5.6

3.6

35

7-0

1.6
7
Penn State 2.4

6.4

4.0

78

7-1

1.4
8
Boise State 1.8

6.4

4.6

47

7-0

1.3
9
Virginia Tech 1.5

6.3

4.8

1

5-2

1.1
10
Oregon 1.4

5.5

4.1

9

6-1

1.1
11
Nebraska 1.9

5.9

4.0

20

4-3

1.1
12
Oklahoma 1.7

5.6

3.9

23

4-3

0.9
13
Mississippi 1.4

5.9

4.5

44

5-2

0.6
14
Utah 1.3

5.9

4.6

54

6-1

0.6
15
Texas Tech 1.8

6.7

4.9

58

5-3

0.6
16
West Virginia 1.6

6.3

4.7

77

6-1

0.6
17
Miami (Florida) 1.1

6.1

5.0

6

5-2

0.5
18
Arizona 1.1

6.2

5.1

14

5-2

0.5
19
Ohio State 1.4

5.6

4.2

49

6-2

0.5
20
Pittsburgh 1.4

6.4

5.0

55

7-1

0.5
21
Tennessee 1.3

5.6

4.3

12

3-4

0.4
22
California 1.2

6.6

5.4

34

5-2

0.4
23
Iowa 0.4

5.1

4.7

13

8-0

0.3
24
Oklahoma State 1.2

6.1

4.9

70

6-1

0.3
25
LSU 0.6

5.0

4.4

18

6-1

0.2
26
South Carolina 0.9

5.5

4.6

33

6-2

0.2
27
South Florida 1.3

6.2

4.9

83

5-2

0.1
28
Central Michigan 1.3

6.1

4.8

101

7-1

0.1
29
Stanford 1.0

6.7

5.7

32

5-3

0.0
30
Auburn 0.8

5.9

5.1

22

5-3

-0.1
31
Michigan State 1.2

6.0

4.8

45

4-4

-0.1
32
BYU 0.9

6.4

5.5

48

6-2

-0.1
33
Kansas 1.0

6.1

5.1

63

5-2

-0.1
34
Clemson 0.5

4.9

4.4

7

4-3

-0.2
35
Georgia Tech 0.2

6.2

6.0

8

7-1

-0.3
36
Fresno State 0.7

6.6

5.9

26

3-3

-0.3
37
Arkansas 0.5

6.4

5.9

3

3-4

-0.4
38
Georgia 0.2

5.5

5.3

4

4-3

-0.4
39
Boston College 0.5

5.3

4.8

30

5-3

-0.4
40
Missouri 0.5

5.3

4.8

41

4-3

-0.5
41
Louisiana-Monroe 0.5

5.6

5.1

85

4-3

-0.5
42
Connecticut 0.7

5.7

5.0

56

4-3

-0.6
43
Arizona State 0.7

5.3

4.6

67

4-3

-0.6
44
Houston 0.5

6.5

6.0

72

6-1

-0.6
45
Tulsa 1.0

5.8

4.8

103

4-3

-0.6
46
Southern Mississippi 1.2

5.8

4.6

118

5-3

-0.6
47
Wisconsin 0.2

5.6

5.4

36

5-2

-0.7
48
Baylor 0.7

5.9

5.2

46

3-4

-0.7
49
Michigan 0.6

5.9

5.3

60

5-3

-0.7
50
North Carolina 0.6

4.6

4.0

65

4-3

-0.7
51
Nevada 0.9

7.2

6.3

79

4-3

-0.7
52
North Carolina State 0.7

5.6

4.9

80

3-4

-0.7
53
Oregon State 0.1

5.7

5.6

15

4-3

-0.8
54
Notre Dame 0.0

6.2

6.2

20

5-2

-0.8
55
Purdue 0.8

5.8

5.0

51

3-5

-0.8
56
Troy 0.5

6.1

5.5

86

5-2

-0.9
57
Idaho 0.6

6.8

6.2

93

6-2

-0.9
58
Rutgers 0.5

5.4

4.9

113

5-2

-1.0
59
Kentucky -0.2

5.0

5.2

16

4-3

-1.1
60
Navy 0.1

5.3

5.2

66

6-2

-1.1
61
San Diego State 0.5

5.5

5.0

68

3-4

-1.1
62
Hawai'i 0.8

6.6

5.8

82

2-5

-1.1
63
Wake Forest 0.0

5.5

5.4

37

4-4

-1.2
64
Texas A&M 0.1

5.8

5.7

57

4-3

-1.2
65
Toledo 0.6

6.3

5.7

87

4-4

-1.2
66
UCLA -0.3

4.7

5.0

5

3-4

-1.3
67
Virginia -0.2

4.3

4.5

25

3-4

-1.3
68
Air Force 0.2

4.6

4.4

69

4-4

-1.3
69
Ohio 0.3

5.0

4.7

98

5-3

-1.3
70
UCF 0.5

5.3

4.8

115

4-3

-1.3
71
Florida State -0.3

6.3

6.6

11

2-4

-1.4
72
SMU 0.1

5.5

5.4

61

3-4

-1.4
73
Minnesota -0.4

5.1

5.5

21

4-4

-1.5
74
Mississippi State -0.1

5.2

5.3

26

3-5

-1.5
75
Colorado State 0.0

5.8

5.8

39

3-5

-1.5
76
Iowa State -0.2

5.4

5.6

59

5-3

-1.5
77
Kansas State -0.1

5.3

5.2

81

5-3

-1.5
78
Temple 0.0

4.9

4.9

111

5-2

-1.5
79
Utah State 0.3

5.9

5.6

75

2-5

-1.6
80
Buffalo 0.4

5.8

5.4

90

3-5

-1.6
81
Middle Tennessee 0.1

5.3

5.2

97

4-3

-1.6
82
Northern Illinois -0.1

5.6

5.7

110

4-3

-1.7
83
Duke -0.2

5.4

5.6

89

4-3

-1.8
84
Arkansas State 0.1

5.4

5.3

99

2-4

-1.8
85
Indiana -0.1

5.4

5.5

94

4-4

-1.9
86
Kent State 0.0

4.9

4.9

109

4-4

-1.9
87
Vanderbilt -0.1

4.5

4.6

73

2-6

-2.0
88
Syracuse -0.4

5.1

5.5

74

3-4

-2.0
89
Louisiana Tech 0.0

5.4

5.4

114

3-4

-2.0
90
North Texas 0.1

5.8

5.7

91

1-6

-2.1
91
Western Michigan -0.4

5.5

5.9

100

4-4

-2.1
92
Northwestern -0.2

5.1

5.3

116

5-3

-2.1
93
Louisville -0.7

5.4

6.1

28

2-5

-2.2
94
Marshall -0.7

5.1

5.8

84

5-3

-2.2
95
UAB -0.4

6.0

6.4

71

2-5

-2.3
96
East Carolina -0.6

4.8

5.4

96

4-3

-2.3
97
UTEP -0.8

5.4

6.2

64

3-4

-2.4
98
Maryland -0.8

4.8

5.6

38

2-6

-2.5
99
Bowling Green -1.0

5.2

6.2

50

3-5

-2.5
100
Wyoming -0.8

4.3

5.1

95

4-3

-2.5
101
Washington -1.4

5.4

6.8

2

3-5

-2.6
102
Army -0.5

4.4

4.9

112

3-5

-2.6
103
Florida Atlantic -0.6

6.1

6.7

88

2-4

-2.7
104
Illinois -0.9

5.3

6.2

53

1-6

-2.8
105
Memphis -0.8

5.2

6.0

104

2-5

-3.0
106
Akron -0.6

4.6

5.2

106

1-6

-3.0
107
Colorado -1.6

4.2

5.8

42

2-5

-3.1
108
Tulane -1.0

5.1

6.1

92

2-5

-3.1
109
Louisiana-Lafayette -1.2

5.0

6.2

120

4-3

-3.2
110
Miami (Ohio) -1.3

4.4

5.7

31

0-8

-3.3
111
New Mexico -0.8

4.7

5.5

107

0-7

-3.4
112
Ball State -0.9

4.8

5.7

117

1-7

-3.6
113
UNLV -1.5

5.3

6.8

105

3-5

-3.8
114
San Jose State -2.4

4.6

7.0

24

1-5

-3.9
115
New Mexico State -2.0

3.9

5.9

119

3-5

-4.3
116
Florida International -2.2

4.5

6.7

76

1-6

-4.4
117 Eastern Michigan -2.2

4.2

6.4

102

0-7

-4.4
118 Rice -2.6

4.1

6.7

62

0-8

-4.5
119 Washington State -3.0

4.3

7.3

27

1-6

-4.8
120 Western Kentucky -2.4

4.7

7.1

108

0-7

-5.2

Monday, October 26, 2009

College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 8 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 7 2009 Season

Odds used here were posted according to the odds posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Tuesday, October 20, 2009 at 4:57:27 p.m.

Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

However, we tweak our stats in some cases and this week we are treating the home field advantage differently, since a ca. 2.66-point home field advantage at Massey Ratings appears to make a bigger point difference in the actual spread. Massey has the average score this season for 2372 football games at 34.9 points for the winner and 15.79 points for the loser, so that the average number of points scored in a game by both teams is 50.7 points, with an average difference between the winner and loser of 19.1 points. When we look at all games, regardless of who won or lost, the home team score was 27.52 on average and the visiting team had 23.28 on average, so that the actual point spread there is 4.24 points.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.


Going into this week we are 278-107 W-L in picking the game winner, including some games that had no official line, and we are 162-169-4 against the spread.

Here are our predictions for the 8th Week, which has some great games on tap:

UTEP was the underdog at home by 7.5 points against Tulsa. Our call: Tulsa 38-17 Result: After going into the lead 24-13 in the 4th quarter, Tulsa went into a timid running offense, which went nowhere, led to 2 quick punts, and thus handed the game to UTEP, who won 28-24. Stupid coaching leads to losses. Losers play to protect a lead. Either you play to win or you may/will lose. Prediction Record: 0-1 in picking the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

North Carolina
is favored at home by 3 points over Florida State. Our call: North Carolina 31-17 Result: Florida State won 30-27 as Christian Ponder of the Seminoles passed for 395 yards. Prediction Record: 0-2 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Army is the underdog at home by 10 points against Rutgers. Our call: Rutgers 24-17 Result: Rutgers won 27-10. Prediction Record: 1-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.

Bowling Green is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Central Michigan. Our call: Central Michigan 38-24 Result: Central Michigan won 24-10. Prediction Record: 2-2 in picking the winner and 1-3 against the spread.

Marshall is favored at home by 7 points over UAB. Our call: Marshall 31-21 Result: Marshall won 27-7. Prediction Record: 3-2 in picking the winner and 2-3 against the spread.

West Virginia is favored at home by 7 points over Connecticut. Our call: West Virginia 38-21 Result: West Virginia won 28-24 and deserved to lose this game as the Huskies put up 499 yards total offense to the Mountaineers 381. Prediction Record: 4-2 in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.

Pittsburgh is favored at home by 7 points over South Florida. Our call: Pittsburgh 27-26 Result: The Panters beat the Bulls 41-14. Prediction Record: 5-2 in picking the winner and 2-5 against the spread.

Northwestern is favored at home by 5.5 points over Indiana. Our call: Indiana 24-23 Result: Northwestern came back from a 28-3 deficit to win 29-28 after Indiana, ahead 28-19 went for a TD rather than a field goal with 4th and 1 at the goal line and did not make it. You have to play the percentages to win. Prediction Record: 5-3 in picking the winner and 3-5 against the spread.

Ohio State is favored at home by 18 points over Minnesota. Our call: Ohio State 41-21 Result: Ohio State won 38-7 after leading only 7-0 at halftime. Prediction Record: 6-3 in picking the winner and 4-5 against the spread.

Purdue is favored at home by 10 points over Illinois. Our call: Purdue 35-14 Result: Purdue beat Illinois 24-14. Prediction Record: 7-3 in picking the winner and 4-5-1 against the spread.

Virginia is the underdog at home by 4.5 points against Georgia Tech. Our call: Virginia 24-23 Result: Georgia Tech beat Virginia 34-9. Prediction Record: 7-4 in picking the winner and 4-6-1 against the spread.

Mississippi is favored at home by 5.5 points over Arkansas. Our call: The stats would call this game for Mississippi by about 7 points, but the Razorbacks have improved tremendously and should have beaten Florida last week. We call it 31-30 for Arkansas. Result: Mississippi beat Arkansas 30-17. Prediction Record: 7-5 in picking the winner and 4-7-1 against the spread.

Kansas State is favored at home by 4 points over Colorado. Our call: Kansas State 31-24 Result: Kansas State beat Colorado 20-6 in a game marked by a scoreless second half. Prediction Record: 8-5 in picking the winner and 5-7-1 against the spread.

Baylor is the underdog at home by 10 points against Oklahoma State. Our call: Baylor 31-30 Result: Oklahoma State won 34-7. Prediction Record: 8-6 in picking the winner and 5-8-1 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio is the underdog at home by 10 points against Northern Illinois. Our call: Northern Illinois 30-23 Result: Northern Illinois won 27-22. Prediction Record: 9-6 in picking the winner and 6-8-1 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan is the underdog at home by 3 points against Ball State. Our call: Eastern Michigan 27-26 Result: Ball State won 29-27. Prediction Record: 9-7 in picking the winner and 7-8-1 against the spread.

Duke is favored at home by 4.5 points over Maryland. Our call: Duke 31-23 Result: Duke beat Maryland 17-13. Prediction Record: 10-7 in picking the winner and 7-9-1 against the spread.

Ohio is favored at home by 10.5 points over Kent State. Our call: Ohio 31-14 Result: Kent State won 20-11. Prediction Record: 10-8 in picking the winner and 7-10-1 against the spread.

Western Michigan is favored at home by 4.5 points over Buffalo. Our call: Western Michigan 28-21 Result: Western Michigan won 34-31 in overtime. Prediction Record: 11-8 in picking the winner and 7-11-1 against the spread.

Utah State is favored at home by 1 point over Louisiana Tech. Our call: Utah State 30-23 Result: Utah State won 23-21. Prediction Record: 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-11-1 against the spread.

Rice is the underdog at home by 10 points against UCF (Central Florida). Our call: UCF 40-21 Result: UCF beat Rice 49-7. Prediction Record: 13-8 in picking the winner and 9-11-1 against the spread.

Syracuse is favored at home by 10 points over Akron. Our call: Syracuse 28-17 Result: Syracuse won 28-14. Prediction Record: 14-8 in picking the winner and 10-11-1 against the spread.

Alabama is favored at home by 16 points over Tennessee. Our call: Alabama 28-7 Result: Alabama blocked a last-second field goal by the Vols to win 12-10. Prediction Record: 15-8 in picking the winner and 10-12-1 against the spread.

Middle Tennessee is favored at home by 19.5 points over Western Kentucky. Our call: Middle Tennessee 42-14 Result: The Blue Raiders won 62-24. Prediction Record: 16-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.

Troy State is at home vs. North Texas (no line at the time of the prediction). Our call: Troy 34-21 Result: Troy won 50-26. Prediction Record: 17-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.

Cincinnati is favored at home by 18 points over Louisville. Our call: Cincinnati 49-7 Result: Cincinnati beat Louisville 41-10. Prediction Record: 18-8 in picking the winner and 12-12-1 against the spread.

Washington is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oregon. Our call: Oregon 40-13 Result: Oregon beat Washington 43-19. Prediction Record: 19-8 in picking the winner and 13-12-1 against the spread.

Navy is favored at home by 2.5 points over Wake Forest. Our call: Wake Forest and Navy rank 64th and 65th in our YPPSYS rankings (see previous posting). We call it for the Demon Deacons 27-24 Result: Navy won 13-10, throwing ZERO passes. Prediction Record: 19-9 in picking the winner and 13-13-1 against the spread.

Michigan is the underdog at home by 4 points against Penn State. Our call: Michigan 21-20 Result: The Nittany Lions beat the Wolverines 35-10. Prediction Record: 19-10 in picking the winner and 13-14-1 against the spread.

Kansas is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oklahoma. Our call: Oklahoma 24-21 Result: Oklahoma won 35-13. Prediction Record: 20-10 in picking the winner and 13-15-1 against the spread.

Miami of Florida is favored at home by 4.5 points over Clemson. Our call: Miami of Florida 24-14 Result: Clemson beat the Hurricanes 40-37 in overtime. Prediction Record: 20-11 in picking the winner and 13-16-1 against the spread.

Notre Dame is favored at home by 8 points over Boston College. Our call: Notre Dame 28-27 Result: The Fighting Irish won 20-16. Prediction Record: 21-11 in picking the winner and 14-16-1 against the spread.

Colorado State is favored at home by 8 points over San Diego State. Our call: Our stats rate these team even, except for the home field advantage. 31-27 for Colorado State. Result: San Diego State beat Colorado State 42-28 as new head coach Brady Hoke's team continues to improve. Prediction Record: 21-12 in picking the winner and 15-16-1 against the spread.

Utah is favored at home by 9.5 points over Air Force. Our call: Utah 24-7 Result: Utah beat the Falcons in overtime 23-16. Prediction Record: 22-12 in picking the winner and 15-17-1 against the spread.

Nevada is favored at home by 15.5 points over Idaho. Our call: Our YPSSYS rankings put Nevada and Idaho at the 53rd and 54th spots. Idaho has been having a banner year and we call it for the Vandals 36-34 Result: Nevada won 70-45. Prediction Record: 22-13 in picking the winner and 15-18-1 against the spread.

California is favored at home by 36 points over Washington State. Our call: Cal 52-7 Result: Cal won 49-17. Prediction Record: 23-13 in picking the winner and 15-19-1 against the spread.

Nebraska is favored at home by 18 points over Iowa State. Our call: Huskers 34-10 Result: Lose at home to the Cyclones? Poor Nebraska. Iowa State won 9-7 as Nebraska gave up 3 interceptions and 5 of 6 fumbles for a record-tying 8 turnovers, 4 of those within the Cyclone 5-yard line. If Nebraska were Podunk U, no one would care, but apparently some members of the Nebraska coaching staff would rather be looking at unemployment checks rather than producing the product that a lot of people are investing in to make it successful.

A record 8 turnovers by the offense could be pardoned in the Christian spirit, but not if the rest of the world - except for the Husker offensive coaching staff - had already been grumbling mightily in past weeks that something had to do be done at once to change the sputtering Cornhusker offense, e.g. giving other quarterbacks more opportunity to see if they could jumpstart the offense, etc. But to everyone's astounded amazement, the Husker coaching staff stuck with the same totally ineffectual quarterback again - the entire game - in spite of what appears to be a lack of leadership and an inability to get the ball into the end zone.

Indeed, we had already posted previously about the great number of errors that the Huskers were producing in the red zone in previous games and that it was the job of the coaching staff to correct them. Was anything done to correct this and stop the foolish playcalling in the red zone? Apparently nothing. Frankly, the Nebraska offensive coordinator should be given his walking papers. No team produces 8 offensive turnovers unless there are tremendous unresolved problems on the offensive team as a whole. Given the superb Nebraska defense which allowed only 9 points (inter alia, Suh blocked a field goal) it is obviously difficult to have a terrible offense at the same time, but such are the facts and coaches are paid A LOT OF MONEY to solve such problems. Frankly, one can easily imagine coaching the present Husker offense 200% better than it is currently being coached, and at half the price. I'm ready. See my postings about successful coaching. Prediction Record: 23-14 in picking the winner and 15-20-1 against the spread.

Louisiana-Lafayette is favored at home by 3 points over Florida Atlantic. Our call: ULL 34-27 Result:Florida Atlantic won 51-29. Prediction Record: 23-15 in picking the winner and 15-21-1 against the spread.

Arizona is favored at home by 8 points over UCLA. Our call: Arizona 31-14 Result: Arizona beat UCLA 27-13 Prediction Record: 24-15 in picking the winner and 16-21-1 against the spread.

Michigan State at home is seen as even against visiting Iowa. Our call: Our stats call this game all square after we give the points for the home field advantage to the Spartans. We call it for the Hawkeys 24-23 Result: Iowa won on the last play of the game 15-13 Prediction Record: 25-15 in picking the winner and 17-21-1 against the spread.

Arkansas State is favored at home by 11.5 points over Florida International. Our call: Arkansas State 31-10 Result: Arkansas State won 27-10. Prediction Record: 26-15 in picking the winner and 18-21-1 against the spread.

BYU is the underdog at home by 2.5 points against TCU. Our call: TCU 28-21 Result: TCU beat BYU 38-7 Prediction Record: 27-15 in picking the winner and 19-21-1 against the spread.

Kentucky is favored at home by 17 points over Louisiana-Monroe. Our call: ULM 24-23 Result: Kentucky won 36-13 Prediction Record: 27-16 in picking the winner and 19-22-1 against the spread.

Texas Tech is favored at home by 21 points over Texas A&M. Our call: Texas Tech 48-24 Result: Texas A&M beat Texas Tech 52-30 Prediction Record: 27-17 in picking the winner and 19-23-1 against the spread.

South Carolina is favored at home by 12.5 points over Vanderbilt. Our call: South Carolina 31-10 Result: South Carolina beat Vanderbilt 14-10 Prediction Record: 28-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.

Houston is favored at home by 16 points over SMU. Our call: Houston 41-27 Result: Houston beat SMU 38-15 Prediction Record: 29-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.

LSU is favored at home by 9 points over Auburn. Our call: LSU 27-24 Result: LSU beat Auburn 31-10 Prediction Record: 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-26-1 against the spread.

Mississippi State is the underdog at home by 23.5 points against Florida. Our call: Florida 41-7 Result:Florida beat Mississippi State 29-19 Prediction Record: 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-27-1 against the spread.

Missouri is the underdog at home by 13.5 points against Texas. Our call: Texas 31-17 Result: Texas won 41-7 Prediction Record: 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-27-1 against the spread.

Southern Mississippi is favored at home by 21 points over Tulane. Our call: Southern Miss 37-17 Result: Southern Miss won 43-6 Prediction Record: 33-17 in picking the winner and 20-28-1 against the spread.

Toledo is favored at home by 1.5 points over Temple. Our call: Toledo 27-17 Result: Temple won 40-24 Prediction Record: 33-18 in picking the winner and 20-29-1 against the spread.

New Mexico is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against UNLV. Our call: New Mexico 31-21 Result: UNLV won 34-17. Prediction Record: 33-19 in picking the winner and 20-30-1 against the spread.

New Mexico State is the underdog at home by 24 points against Fresno State. Our call: Fresno State 41-14 Result: Fresno State won 34-3. Prediction Record: 34-19 in picking the winner and 21-30-1 against the spread.

Stanford is favored at home by 6 points over Arizona State. Our call: Stanford 30-23 Result: Stanford won 33-14. Prediction Record: 35-19 in picking the winner and 22-30-1 against the spread.

USC is favored at home by 21 points over Oregon State. Our call: USC 38-7 Result: USC won 42-36 as the Beavers came back from a 42-23 deficit. Prediction Record: 36-19 in picking the winner and 22-31-1 against the spread.

Hawaii is the underdog at home by 24 points against Boise State. Our call: Boise State 38-21 Result: Boise State won 54-9 Prediction Record: 37-19 in picking the winner and 22-32-1 against the spread.

It was a disastrous week against the spread, as we had the worst week we have ever had, although the break even point is actually only swing of five games. Nevertheless, once you get behind, it is tough to get back.

For the season, after eight weeks, we are thus far 315-126 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 184-201-5 record against the spread.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

YPPSYS Yards Per Play Ranking System Compared with BCS, AP Poll, USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive, Massey Ratings, Sagarin Pure Points

After the 7th week of play or what can approximately be called the middle of the 2009 NCAA FBS Division I-A college football season, we here compare our YPPSYS Yards Per Play Ranking System (as adjusted particularly for strength of schedule) with the rankings at the BCS, AP Poll (voters), USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive Poll, Massey Ratings, and Sagarin Pure Points. For more detail, also take a look at for example at the CFN Scout.com rankings or Mike DeSimone's College Football Ratings.

As one can see below, YPPSYS produces reliable and objective ranking and rating results, and it does this primarily by combining the yards per play stats (offense and defense) of any team together with its schedule difficulty.

YPPSYS RANKINGS compared to Other Ranking Services
YPPSYS
Rank
After 7th Week
Massey
Ratings

Sagarin
Pure
Points

AP Top
25 Poll

USA
Today
Coaches
Poll

Harris
BCS
1Florida2

2

2

1

1

1

2
USC 7

3

4

4

4

7

3
Alabama 1

1

1

2

2

2

4
Cincinnati 4

12

5

6

6

5

5
Texas 3

5

3

3

3

3

6
TCU 6

10

10

7

8

8

7
Boise State 5

9

6

5

5

4

8
Nebraska 15

7









9
Texas Tech 13

14

21

24

22



10
Oregon 11

8

12

14

12

11

11
Virginia Tech 9

4

15

15

15

14

12
Penn State 18

17

13

11

11

13

13
Oklahoma 16

6

25

19

25



14
West Virginia 29

41

22

22

23

23

15
Miami (Florida) 12

16

8

9

10

10
16
South Florida 20

35





24


17
Tennessee 44

24








18
Arizona 26

22







22
19
Ohio State 24

13

18

17

17

19
20
Utah 17

30

19

20

19

18
21
Pittsburgh 19

25

20

19

20

20
22
Iowa 8

11

7

8

7

6
23
Auburn 30

37








24
Mississippi 32

34



25




25
BYU 23

23

16

16

16

16
26
California 25

28








27
Arkansas 21

21



4




28
South Carolina 22

36

23

23



24
29
Michigan State 52

33








30
Oklahoma State 34

45

14

12

14

15
31
LSU 14

26

9

10

9

9
32
Clemson 38

19



18




33
Stanford 43

27








34
Tulsa 51

58








35
Kansas 36

31

24

21

21

25
36
Central Michigan 37

40








37
Missouri 50

55








38
Michigan 41

32








39
Arizona State 49

47








40
Boston College 31

38








41
Baylor 75

72








42
North Carolina 59

63








43
Georgia Tech 10

15

11

13

13

12
44
Houston 27

52

17

18

18

17
45
Notre Dame 28

18








46
Connecticut 45

53








47
Louisiana-Monroe 74

79








48
Georgia 35

54








49
Fresno State 42

20








50
Purdue 78

59








51
Wisconsin 40

51








52
Troy 61

81








53
Nevada 79

84








54
Idaho 53

66








55
Oregon State 33

48








56
UCLA 55

49








57
Toledo 85

112








58
North Carolina State 84

86








59
Ohio 62

62








60
Hawai'i 120

107








61
Southern Mississippi 83

75








62
Virginia 57

42








63
Colorado State 73

77








64
Wake Forest 56

67








65
Navy 47

44








66
San Diego State 111

95








67
Air Force 66

46








68
Kentucky 39

43








69
Minnesota 54

65








70
Rutgers 58

80








71
Mississippi State 67

60








72
SMU 92

83








73
Kansas State 71

76








74
Iowa State 65

64








75
Texas A&M 89

94








76
Utah State 132

108








77
Northern Illinois 72

50








78
North Texas 145

133








79
Buffalo 110

111








80
Temple 82

93








81
Florida State 46

29








82
Louisville 91

99








83
Indiana 87

97








84
Middle Tennessee 94

117








85
Duke 68

73








86
Vanderbilt 119

119








87
Louisiana Tech 102

92








88
Syracuse 100

110








89
Marshall 77

91








90
UCF 104

109








91
Arkansas State 103

70








92
Western Michigan 95

104








93
Northwestern 88

98








94
Washington 48

39








95
Maryland 101

124








96
East Carolina 86

90








97
Louisiana-Lafayette 97

140








98
Kent State 115

114








99
Wyoming 93

126








100
Army 125

141








101
Bowling Green 81

87








102
UAB 114

130








103
Tulane 139

163








104
Illinois 126

127








105
UTEP 109

131








106
Akron 153

129








107
Colorado 80

69








108
Florida Atlantic 118

128








109
New Mexico 197

176








110
Memphis 140

149








111
Miami (Ohio) 161

156








112
UNLV 124

121








113 San Jose State 113

101








114 Florida International 130

106








115
Ball State 167

150








116
New Mexico State 152

178








117 Eastern Michigan 184

174








118 Rice 186

170








119 Western Kentucky 202

160








120 Washington State 138

122








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