Friday, October 30, 2009

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS) through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 games

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS)
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule and adjustment for losses through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 of regular season games

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 55 for example, .55 is subtracted (rounded up as here to .6 or down to the nearest figure), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. For Pittsburgh, for example, we start with 6.4 as YPP OFF, subtract the 5.0 of the YPP DEF = 1.4 which is the NAYPPA. A penalty of .1 is also subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, and .1 for more than 6.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the best defense is rated ahead and in the case of a tie, there the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first.

The weekly ratings show that Cincinnati is slowly but surely advancing to the top of the list, albeit against weaker competition than in the SEC, where Florida still has the edge over Alabama. USC remains 2nd but continues to roll up unimpressive wins in spite of a team that is not playing as well as its stats indicate that it actually is.

Rank
After 8th Week
NAYPPA

YPP OFF

YPP DEF

Schedule

W-L

Rating
1Florida2.8
6.7
3.9
19
7-0
2.6
2
 USC 2.7
7.0
4.3
17
6-1
2.5
3
 Cincinnati 2.9
7.2
4.3
52
7-0
2.4
4
 Alabama 2.1
6.0
3.9
10
8-0
2.0
5
 TCU 2.1
6.1
4.0
29
7-0
1.8
6
 Texas 2.0
5.6
3.6
35
7-0
1.6
7
 Penn State 2.4
6.4
4.0
78
7-1
1.4
8
 Boise State 1.8
6.4
4.6
47
7-0
1.3
9
 Virginia Tech 1.5
6.3
4.8
1
5-2
1.1
10
 Oregon 1.4
5.5
4.1
9
6-1
1.1
11
 Nebraska 1.9
5.9
4.0
20
4-3
1.1
12
 Oklahoma 1.7
5.6
3.9
23
4-3
0.9
13
 Mississippi 1.4
5.9
4.5
44
5-2
0.6
14
 Utah 1.3
5.9
4.6
54
6-1
0.6
15
 Texas Tech 1.8
6.7
4.9
58
5-3
0.6
16
 West Virginia 1.6
6.3
4.7
77
6-1
0.6
17
 Miami (Florida) 1.1
6.1
5.0
6
5-2
0.5
18
 Arizona 1.1
6.2
5.1
14
5-2
0.5
19
 Ohio State 1.4
5.6
4.2
49
6-2
0.5
20
 Pittsburgh 1.4
6.4
5.0
55
7-1
0.5
21
 Tennessee 1.3
5.6
4.3
12
3-4
0.4
22
 California 1.2
6.6
5.4
34
5-2
0.4
23
 Iowa 0.4
5.1
4.7
13
8-0
0.3
24
 Oklahoma State 1.2
6.1
4.9
70
6-1
0.3
25
 LSU 0.6
5.0
4.4
18
6-1
0.2
26
 South Carolina 0.9
5.5
4.6
33
6-2
0.2
27
 South Florida 1.3
6.2
4.9
83
5-2
0.1
28
 Central Michigan 1.3
6.1
4.8
101
7-1
0.1
29
 Stanford 1.0
6.7
5.7
32
5-3
0.0
30
 Auburn 0.8
5.9
5.1
22
5-3
-0.1
31
 Michigan State 1.2
6.0
4.8
45
4-4
-0.1
32
 BYU 0.9
6.4
5.5
48
6-2
-0.1
33
 Kansas 1.0
6.1
5.1
63
5-2
-0.1
34
 Clemson 0.5
4.9
4.4
7
4-3
-0.2
35
 Georgia Tech 0.2
6.2
6.0
8
7-1
-0.3
36
 Fresno State 0.7
6.6
5.9
26
3-3
-0.3
37
 Arkansas 0.5
6.4
5.9
3
3-4
-0.4
38
 Georgia 0.2
5.5
5.3
4
4-3
-0.4
39
 Boston College 0.5
5.3
4.8
30
5-3
-0.4
40
 Missouri 0.5
5.3
4.8
41
4-3
-0.5
41
 Louisiana-Monroe 0.5
5.6
5.1
85
4-3
-0.5
42
 Connecticut 0.7
5.7
5.0
56
4-3
-0.6
43
 Arizona State 0.7
5.3
4.6
67
4-3
-0.6
44
 Houston 0.5
6.5
6.0
72
6-1
-0.6
45
 Tulsa 1.0
5.8
4.8
103
4-3
-0.6
46
 Southern Mississippi 1.2
5.8
4.6
118
5-3
-0.6
47
 Wisconsin 0.2
5.6
5.4
36
5-2
-0.7
48
 Baylor 0.7
5.9
5.2
46
3-4
-0.7
49
 Michigan 0.6
5.9
5.3
60
5-3
-0.7
50
 North Carolina 0.6
4.6
4.0
65
4-3
-0.7
51
 Nevada 0.9
7.2
6.3
79
4-3
-0.7
52
 North Carolina State 0.7
5.6
4.9
80
3-4
-0.7
53
 Oregon State 0.1
5.7
5.6
15
4-3
-0.8
54
 Notre Dame 0.0
6.2
6.2
20
5-2
-0.8
55
 Purdue 0.8
5.8
5.0
51
3-5
-0.8
56
 Troy 0.5
6.1
5.5
86
5-2
-0.9
57
 Idaho 0.6
6.8
6.2
93
6-2
-0.9
58
 Rutgers 0.5
5.4
4.9
113
5-2
-1.0
59
 Kentucky -0.2
5.0
5.2
16
4-3
-1.1
60
 Navy 0.1
5.3
5.2
66
6-2
-1.1
61
 San Diego State 0.5
5.5
5.0
68
3-4
-1.1
62
 Hawai'i 0.8
6.6
5.8
82
2-5
-1.1
63
 Wake Forest 0.0
5.5
5.4
37
4-4
-1.2
64
 Texas A&M 0.1
5.8
5.7
57
4-3
-1.2
65
 Toledo 0.6
6.3
5.7
87
4-4
-1.2
66
 UCLA -0.3
4.7
5.0
5
3-4
-1.3
67
 Virginia -0.2
4.3
4.5
25
3-4
-1.3
68
 Air Force 0.2
4.6
4.4
69
4-4
-1.3
69
 Ohio 0.3
5.0
4.7
98
5-3
-1.3
70
 UCF 0.5
5.3
4.8
115
4-3
-1.3
71
 Florida State -0.3
6.3
6.6
11
2-4
-1.4
72
 SMU 0.1
5.5
5.4
61
3-4
-1.4
73
 Minnesota -0.4
5.1
5.5
21
4-4
-1.5
74
 Mississippi State -0.1
5.2
5.3
26
3-5
-1.5
75
 Colorado State 0.0
5.8
5.8
39
3-5
-1.5
76
 Iowa State -0.2
5.4
5.6
59
5-3
-1.5
77
 Kansas State -0.1
5.3
5.2
81
5-3
-1.5
78
 Temple 0.0
4.9
4.9
111
5-2
-1.5
79
 Utah State 0.3
5.9
5.6
75
2-5
-1.6
80
 Buffalo 0.4
5.8
5.4
90
3-5
-1.6
81
 Middle Tennessee 0.1
5.3
5.2
97
4-3
-1.6
82
 Northern Illinois -0.1
5.6
5.7
110
4-3
-1.7
83
 Duke -0.2
5.4
5.6
89
4-3
-1.8
84
 Arkansas State 0.1
5.4
5.3
99
2-4
-1.8
85
 Indiana -0.1
5.4
5.5
94
4-4
-1.9
86
 Kent State 0.0
4.9
4.9
109
4-4
-1.9
87
 Vanderbilt -0.1
4.5
4.6
73
2-6
-2.0
88
 Syracuse -0.4
5.1
5.5
74
3-4
-2.0
89
 Louisiana Tech 0.0
5.4
5.4
114
3-4
-2.0
90
 North Texas 0.1
5.8
5.7
91
1-6
-2.1
91
 Western Michigan -0.4
5.5
5.9
100
4-4
-2.1
92
 Northwestern -0.2
5.1
5.3
116
5-3
-2.1
93
 Louisville -0.7
5.4
6.1
28
2-5
-2.2
94
 Marshall -0.7
5.1
5.8
84
5-3
-2.2
95
 UAB -0.4
6.0
6.4
71
2-5
-2.3
96
 East Carolina -0.6
4.8
5.4
96
4-3
-2.3
97
 UTEP -0.8
5.4
6.2
64
3-4
-2.4
98
 Maryland -0.8
4.8
5.6
38
2-6
-2.5
99
 Bowling Green -1.0
5.2
6.2
50
3-5
-2.5
100
 Wyoming -0.8
4.3
5.1
95
4-3
-2.5
101
 Washington -1.4
5.4
6.8
2
3-5
-2.6
102
 Army -0.5
4.4
4.9
112
3-5
-2.6
103
 Florida Atlantic -0.6
6.1
6.7
88
2-4
-2.7
104
 Illinois -0.9
5.3
6.2
53
1-6
-2.8
105
 Memphis -0.8
5.2
6.0
104
2-5
-3.0
106
 Akron -0.6
4.6
5.2
106
1-6
-3.0
107
 Colorado -1.6
4.2
5.8
42
2-5
-3.1
108
 Tulane -1.0
5.1
6.1
92
2-5
-3.1
109
 Louisiana-Lafayette -1.2
5.0
6.2
120
4-3
-3.2
110
 Miami (Ohio) -1.3
4.4
5.7
31
0-8
-3.3
111
 New Mexico -0.8
4.7
5.5
107
0-7
-3.4
112
 Ball State -0.9
4.8
5.7
117
1-7
-3.6
113
 UNLV -1.5
5.3
6.8
105
3-5
-3.8
114
 San Jose State -2.4
4.6
7.0
24
1-5
-3.9
115
 New Mexico State -2.0
3.9
5.9
119
3-5
-4.3
116
 Florida International -2.2
4.5
6.7
76
1-6
-4.4
117 Eastern Michigan -2.2
4.2
6.4
102
0-7
-4.4
118 Rice -2.6
4.1
6.7
62
0-8
-4.5
119 Washington State -3.0
4.3
7.3
27
1-6
-4.8
120 Western Kentucky -2.4
4.7
7.1
108
0-7
-5.2
Posted by at 10/30/2009 01:17:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Monday, October 26, 2009

College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 8 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 7 2009 Season

Odds used here were posted according to the odds posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Tuesday, October 20, 2009 at 4:57:27 p.m.

Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

However, we tweak our stats in some cases and this week we are treating the home field advantage differently, since a ca. 2.66-point home field advantage at Massey Ratings appears to make a bigger point difference in the actual spread. Massey has the average score this season for 2372 football games at 34.9 points for the winner and 15.79 points for the loser, so that the average number of points scored in a game by both teams is 50.7 points, with an average difference between the winner and loser of 19.1 points. When we look at all games, regardless of who won or lost, the home team score was 27.52 on average and the visiting team had 23.28 on average, so that the actual point spread there is 4.24 points.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

Going into this week we are 278-107 W-L in picking the game winner, including some games that had no official line, and we are 162-169-4 against the spread.

Here are our predictions for the 8th Week, which has some great games on tap:

UTEP was the underdog at home by 7.5 points against Tulsa. Our call: Tulsa 38-17 Result: After going into the lead 24-13 in the 4th quarter, Tulsa went into a timid running offense, which went nowhere, led to 2 quick punts, and thus handed the game to UTEP, who won 28-24. Stupid coaching leads to losses. Losers play to protect a lead. Either you play to win or you may/will lose. Prediction Record: 0-1 in picking the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

North Carolina is favored at home by 3 points over Florida State. Our call: North Carolina 31-17 Result: Florida State won 30-27 as Christian Ponder of the Seminoles passed for 395 yards. Prediction Record: 0-2 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Army is the underdog at home by 10 points against Rutgers. Our call: Rutgers 24-17 Result: Rutgers won 27-10. Prediction Record: 1-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.

Bowling Green is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Central Michigan. Our call: Central Michigan 38-24 Result: Central Michigan won 24-10. Prediction Record: 2-2 in picking the winner and 1-3 against the spread.

Marshall is favored at home by 7 points over UAB. Our call: Marshall 31-21 Result: Marshall won 27-7. Prediction Record: 3-2 in picking the winner and 2-3 against the spread.

West Virginia is favored at home by 7 points over Connecticut. Our call: West Virginia 38-21 Result: West Virginia won 28-24 and deserved to lose this game as the Huskies put up 499 yards total offense to the Mountaineers 381. Prediction Record: 4-2 in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.

Pittsburgh is favored at home by 7 points over South Florida. Our call: Pittsburgh 27-26 Result: The Panters beat the Bulls 41-14. Prediction Record: 5-2 in picking the winner and 2-5 against the spread.

Northwestern is favored at home by 5.5 points over Indiana. Our call: Indiana 24-23 Result: Northwestern came back from a 28-3 deficit to win 29-28 after Indiana, ahead 28-19 went for a TD rather than a field goal with 4th and 1 at the goal line and did not make it. You have to play the percentages to win. Prediction Record: 5-3 in picking the winner and 3-5 against the spread.

Ohio State is favored at home by 18 points over Minnesota. Our call: Ohio State 41-21 Result: Ohio State won 38-7 after leading only 7-0 at halftime. Prediction Record: 6-3 in picking the winner and 4-5 against the spread.

Purdue is favored at home by 10 points over Illinois. Our call: Purdue 35-14 Result: Purdue beat Illinois 24-14. Prediction Record: 7-3 in picking the winner and 4-5-1 against the spread.

Virginia is the underdog at home by 4.5 points against Georgia Tech. Our call: Virginia 24-23 Result: Georgia Tech beat Virginia 34-9. Prediction Record: 7-4 in picking the winner and 4-6-1 against the spread.

Mississippi is favored at home by 5.5 points over Arkansas. Our call: The stats would call this game for Mississippi by about 7 points, but the Razorbacks have improved tremendously and should have beaten Florida last week. We call it 31-30 for Arkansas. Result: Mississippi beat Arkansas 30-17. Prediction Record: 7-5 in picking the winner and 4-7-1 against the spread.

Kansas State is favored at home by 4 points over Colorado. Our call: Kansas State 31-24 Result: Kansas State beat Colorado 20-6 in a game marked by a scoreless second half. Prediction Record: 8-5 in picking the winner and 5-7-1 against the spread.

Baylor is the underdog at home by 10 points against Oklahoma State. Our call: Baylor 31-30 Result: Oklahoma State won 34-7. Prediction Record: 8-6 in picking the winner and 5-8-1 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio is the underdog at home by 10 points against Northern Illinois. Our call: Northern Illinois 30-23 Result: Northern Illinois won 27-22. Prediction Record: 9-6 in picking the winner and 6-8-1 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan is the underdog at home by 3 points against Ball State. Our call: Eastern Michigan 27-26 Result: Ball State won 29-27. Prediction Record: 9-7 in picking the winner and 7-8-1 against the spread.

Duke is favored at home by 4.5 points over Maryland. Our call: Duke 31-23 Result: Duke beat Maryland 17-13. Prediction Record: 10-7 in picking the winner and 7-9-1 against the spread.

Ohio is favored at home by 10.5 points over Kent State. Our call: Ohio 31-14 Result: Kent State won 20-11. Prediction Record: 10-8 in picking the winner and 7-10-1 against the spread.

Western Michigan is favored at home by 4.5 points over Buffalo. Our call: Western Michigan 28-21 Result: Western Michigan won 34-31 in overtime. Prediction Record: 11-8 in picking the winner and 7-11-1 against the spread.

Utah State is favored at home by 1 point over Louisiana Tech. Our call: Utah State 30-23 Result: Utah State won 23-21. Prediction Record: 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-11-1 against the spread.

Rice is the underdog at home by 10 points against UCF (Central Florida). Our call: UCF 40-21 Result: UCF beat Rice 49-7. Prediction Record: 13-8 in picking the winner and 9-11-1 against the spread.

Syracuse is favored at home by 10 points over Akron. Our call: Syracuse 28-17 Result: Syracuse won 28-14. Prediction Record: 14-8 in picking the winner and 10-11-1 against the spread.

Alabama is favored at home by 16 points over Tennessee. Our call: Alabama 28-7 Result: Alabama blocked a last-second field goal by the Vols to win 12-10. Prediction Record: 15-8 in picking the winner and 10-12-1 against the spread.

Middle Tennessee is favored at home by 19.5 points over Western Kentucky. Our call: Middle Tennessee 42-14 Result: The Blue Raiders won 62-24. Prediction Record: 16-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.

Troy State is at home vs. North Texas (no line at the time of the prediction). Our call: Troy 34-21 Result: Troy won 50-26. Prediction Record: 17-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.

Cincinnati is favored at home by 18 points over Louisville. Our call: Cincinnati 49-7 Result: Cincinnati beat Louisville 41-10. Prediction Record: 18-8 in picking the winner and 12-12-1 against the spread.

Washington is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oregon. Our call: Oregon 40-13 Result: Oregon beat Washington 43-19. Prediction Record: 19-8 in picking the winner and 13-12-1 against the spread.

Navy is favored at home by 2.5 points over Wake Forest. Our call: Wake Forest and Navy rank 64th and 65th in our YPPSYS rankings (see previous posting). We call it for the Demon Deacons 27-24 Result: Navy won 13-10, throwing ZERO passes. Prediction Record: 19-9 in picking the winner and 13-13-1 against the spread.

Michigan is the underdog at home by 4 points against Penn State. Our call: Michigan 21-20 Result: The Nittany Lions beat the Wolverines 35-10. Prediction Record: 19-10 in picking the winner and 13-14-1 against the spread.

Kansas is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oklahoma. Our call: Oklahoma 24-21 Result: Oklahoma won 35-13. Prediction Record: 20-10 in picking the winner and 13-15-1 against the spread.

Miami of Florida is favored at home by 4.5 points over Clemson. Our call: Miami of Florida 24-14 Result: Clemson beat the Hurricanes 40-37 in overtime. Prediction Record: 20-11 in picking the winner and 13-16-1 against the spread.

Notre Dame is favored at home by 8 points over Boston College. Our call: Notre Dame 28-27 Result: The Fighting Irish won 20-16. Prediction Record: 21-11 in picking the winner and 14-16-1 against the spread.

Colorado State is favored at home by 8 points over San Diego State. Our call: Our stats rate these team even, except for the home field advantage. 31-27 for Colorado State. Result: San Diego State beat Colorado State 42-28 as new head coach Brady Hoke's team continues to improve. Prediction Record: 21-12 in picking the winner and 15-16-1 against the spread.

Utah is favored at home by 9.5 points over Air Force. Our call: Utah 24-7 Result: Utah beat the Falcons in overtime 23-16. Prediction Record: 22-12 in picking the winner and 15-17-1 against the spread.

Nevada is favored at home by 15.5 points over Idaho. Our call: Our YPSSYS rankings put Nevada and Idaho at the 53rd and 54th spots. Idaho has been having a banner year and we call it for the Vandals 36-34 Result: Nevada won 70-45. Prediction Record: 22-13 in picking the winner and 15-18-1 against the spread.

California is favored at home by 36 points over Washington State. Our call: Cal 52-7 Result: Cal won 49-17. Prediction Record: 23-13 in picking the winner and 15-19-1 against the spread.

Nebraska is favored at home by 18 points over Iowa State. Our call: Huskers 34-10 Result: Lose at home to the Cyclones? Poor Nebraska. Iowa State won 9-7 as Nebraska gave up 3 interceptions and 5 of 6 fumbles for a record-tying 8 turnovers, 4 of those within the Cyclone 5-yard line. If Nebraska were Podunk U, no one would care, but apparently some members of the Nebraska coaching staff would rather be looking at unemployment checks rather than producing the product that a lot of people are investing in to make it successful.

A record 8 turnovers by the offense could be pardoned in the Christian spirit, but not if the rest of the world - except for the Husker offensive coaching staff - had already been grumbling mightily in past weeks that something had to do be done at once to change the sputtering Cornhusker offense, e.g. giving other quarterbacks more opportunity to see if they could jumpstart the offense, etc. But to everyone's astounded amazement, the Husker coaching staff stuck with the same totally ineffectual quarterback again - the entire game - in spite of what appears to be a lack of leadership and an inability to get the ball into the end zone.

Indeed, we had already posted previously about the great number of errors that the Huskers were producing in the red zone in previous games and that it was the job of the coaching staff to correct them. Was anything done to correct this and stop the foolish playcalling in the red zone? Apparently nothing. Frankly, the Nebraska offensive coordinator should be given his walking papers. No team produces 8 offensive turnovers unless there are tremendous unresolved problems on the offensive team as a whole. Given the superb Nebraska defense which allowed only 9 points (inter alia, Suh blocked a field goal) it is obviously difficult to have a terrible offense at the same time, but such are the facts and coaches are paid A LOT OF MONEY to solve such problems. Frankly, one can easily imagine coaching the present Husker offense 200% better than it is currently being coached, and at half the price. I'm ready. See my postings about successful coaching. Prediction Record: 23-14 in picking the winner and 15-20-1 against the spread.

Louisiana-Lafayette is favored at home by 3 points over Florida Atlantic. Our call: ULL 34-27 Result:Florida Atlantic won 51-29. Prediction Record: 23-15 in picking the winner and 15-21-1 against the spread.

Arizona is favored at home by 8 points over UCLA. Our call: Arizona 31-14 Result: Arizona beat UCLA 27-13 Prediction Record: 24-15 in picking the winner and 16-21-1 against the spread.

Michigan State at home is seen as even against visiting Iowa. Our call: Our stats call this game all square after we give the points for the home field advantage to the Spartans. We call it for the Hawkeys 24-23 Result: Iowa won on the last play of the game 15-13 Prediction Record: 25-15 in picking the winner and 17-21-1 against the spread.

Arkansas State is favored at home by 11.5 points over Florida International. Our call: Arkansas State 31-10 Result: Arkansas State won 27-10. Prediction Record: 26-15 in picking the winner and 18-21-1 against the spread.

BYU is the underdog at home by 2.5 points against TCU. Our call: TCU 28-21 Result: TCU beat BYU 38-7 Prediction Record: 27-15 in picking the winner and 19-21-1 against the spread.

Kentucky is favored at home by 17 points over Louisiana-Monroe. Our call: ULM 24-23 Result: Kentucky won 36-13 Prediction Record: 27-16 in picking the winner and 19-22-1 against the spread.

Texas Tech is favored at home by 21 points over Texas A&M. Our call: Texas Tech 48-24 Result: Texas A&M beat Texas Tech 52-30 Prediction Record: 27-17 in picking the winner and 19-23-1 against the spread.

South Carolina is favored at home by 12.5 points over Vanderbilt. Our call: South Carolina 31-10 Result: South Carolina beat Vanderbilt 14-10 Prediction Record: 28-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.

Houston is favored at home by 16 points over SMU. Our call: Houston 41-27 Result: Houston beat SMU 38-15 Prediction Record: 29-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.

LSU is favored at home by 9 points over Auburn. Our call: LSU 27-24 Result: LSU beat Auburn 31-10 Prediction Record: 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-26-1 against the spread.

Mississippi State is the underdog at home by 23.5 points against Florida. Our call: Florida 41-7 Result:Florida beat Mississippi State 29-19 Prediction Record: 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-27-1 against the spread.

Missouri is the underdog at home by 13.5 points against Texas. Our call: Texas 31-17 Result: Texas won 41-7 Prediction Record: 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-27-1 against the spread.

Southern Mississippi is favored at home by 21 points over Tulane. Our call: Southern Miss 37-17 Result: Southern Miss won 43-6 Prediction Record: 33-17 in picking the winner and 20-28-1 against the spread.

Toledo is favored at home by 1.5 points over Temple. Our call: Toledo 27-17 Result: Temple won 40-24 Prediction Record: 33-18 in picking the winner and 20-29-1 against the spread.

New Mexico is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against UNLV. Our call: New Mexico 31-21 Result: UNLV won 34-17. Prediction Record: 33-19 in picking the winner and 20-30-1 against the spread.

New Mexico State is the underdog at home by 24 points against Fresno State. Our call: Fresno State 41-14 Result: Fresno State won 34-3. Prediction Record: 34-19 in picking the winner and 21-30-1 against the spread.

Stanford is favored at home by 6 points over Arizona State. Our call: Stanford 30-23 Result: Stanford won 33-14. Prediction Record: 35-19 in picking the winner and 22-30-1 against the spread.

USC is favored at home by 21 points over Oregon State. Our call: USC 38-7 Result: USC won 42-36 as the Beavers came back from a 42-23 deficit. Prediction Record: 36-19 in picking the winner and 22-31-1 against the spread.

Hawaii is the underdog at home by 24 points against Boise State. Our call: Boise State 38-21 Result: Boise State won 54-9 Prediction Record: 37-19 in picking the winner and 22-32-1 against the spread.

It was a disastrous week against the spread, as we had the worst week we have ever had, although the break even point is actually only swing of five games. Nevertheless, once you get behind, it is tough to get back.

For the season, after eight weeks, we are thus far 315-126 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 184-201-5 record against the spread.
Posted by at 10/26/2009 05:36:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

YPPSYS Yards Per Play Ranking System Compared with BCS, AP Poll, USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive, Massey Ratings, Sagarin Pure Points

After the 7th week of play or what can approximately be called the middle of the 2009 NCAA FBS Division I-A college football season, we here compare our YPPSYS Yards Per Play Ranking System (as adjusted particularly for strength of schedule) with the rankings at the BCS, AP Poll (voters), USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive Poll, Massey Ratings, and Sagarin Pure Points. For more detail, also take a look at for example at the CFN Scout.com rankings or Mike DeSimone's College Football Ratings.

As one can see below, YPPSYS produces reliable and objective ranking and rating results, and it does this primarily by combining the yards per play stats (offense and defense) of any team together with its schedule difficulty.

YPPSYS RANKINGS compared to Other Ranking Services
YPPSYS
Rank
After 7th Week
Massey
Ratings

Sagarin
Pure
Points

AP Top
25 Poll

USA
Today
Coaches
Poll

Harris
BCS
1Florida2
2
2
1
1
1
2
 USC 7
3
4
4
4
7
3
 Alabama 1
1
1
2
2
2
4
 Cincinnati 4
12
5
6
6
5
5
 Texas 3
5
3
3
3
3
6
 TCU 6
10
10
7
8
8
7
 Boise State 5
9
6
5
5
4
8
 Nebraska 15
7








9
 Texas Tech 13
14
21
24
22


10
 Oregon 11
8
12
14
12
11
11
 Virginia Tech 9
4
15
15
15
14
12
 Penn State 18
17
13
11
11
13
13
 Oklahoma 16
6
25
19
25


14
 West Virginia 29
41
22
22
23
23
15
 Miami (Florida) 12
16
8
9
10
10
16
 South Florida 20
35




24

17
 Tennessee 44
24







18
 Arizona 26
22






22
19
 Ohio State 24
13
18
17
17
19
20
 Utah 17
30
19
20
19
18
21
 Pittsburgh 19
25
20
19
20
20
22
 Iowa 8
11
7
8
7
6
23
 Auburn 30
37







24
 Mississippi 32
34


25



25
 BYU 23
23
16
16
16
16
26
 California 25
28







27
 Arkansas 21
21


4



28
 South Carolina 22
36
23
23


24
29
 Michigan State 52
33







30
 Oklahoma State 34
45
14
12
14
15
31
 LSU 14
26
9
10
9
9
32
 Clemson 38
19


18



33
 Stanford 43
27







34
 Tulsa 51
58







35
 Kansas 36
31
24
21
21
25
36
 Central Michigan 37
40







37
 Missouri 50
55







38
 Michigan 41
32







39
 Arizona State 49
47







40
 Boston College 31
38







41
 Baylor 75
72







42
 North Carolina 59
63







43
 Georgia Tech 10
15
11
13
13
12
44
 Houston 27
52
17
18
18
17
45
 Notre Dame 28
18







46
 Connecticut 45
53







47
 Louisiana-Monroe 74
79







48
 Georgia 35
54







49
 Fresno State 42
20







50
 Purdue 78
59







51
 Wisconsin 40
51







52
 Troy 61
81







53
 Nevada 79
84







54
 Idaho 53
66







55
 Oregon State 33
48







56
 UCLA 55
49







57
 Toledo 85
112







58
 North Carolina State 84
86







59
 Ohio 62
62







60
 Hawai'i 120
107







61
 Southern Mississippi 83
75







62
 Virginia 57
42







63
 Colorado State 73
77







64
 Wake Forest 56
67







65
 Navy 47
44







66
 San Diego State 111
95







67
 Air Force 66
46







68
 Kentucky 39
43







69
 Minnesota 54
65







70
 Rutgers 58
80







71
 Mississippi State 67
60







72
 SMU 92
83







73
 Kansas State 71
76







74
 Iowa State 65
64







75
 Texas A&M 89
94







76
 Utah State 132
108







77
 Northern Illinois 72
50







78
 North Texas 145
133







79
 Buffalo 110
111







80
 Temple 82
93







81
 Florida State 46
29







82
 Louisville 91
99







83
 Indiana 87
97







84
 Middle Tennessee 94
117







85
 Duke 68
73







86
 Vanderbilt 119
119







87
 Louisiana Tech 102
92







88
 Syracuse 100
110







89
 Marshall 77
91







90
 UCF 104
109







91
 Arkansas State 103
70







92
 Western Michigan 95
104







93
 Northwestern 88
98







94
 Washington 48
39







95
 Maryland 101
124







96
 East Carolina 86
90







97
 Louisiana-Lafayette 97
140







98
 Kent State 115
114







99
 Wyoming 93
126







100
 Army 125
141







101
 Bowling Green 81
87







102
 UAB 114
130







103
 Tulane 139
163







104
 Illinois 126
127







105
 UTEP 109
131







106
 Akron 153
129







107
 Colorado 80
69







108
 Florida Atlantic 118
128







109
 New Mexico 197
176







110
 Memphis 140
149







111
 Miami (Ohio) 161
156







112
 UNLV 124
121







113 San Jose State 113
101







114 Florida International 130
106







115
 Ball State 167
150







116
 New Mexico State 152
178







117 Eastern Michigan 184
174







118 Rice 186
170







119 Western Kentucky 202
160







120 Washington State 138
122







Posted by at 10/21/2009 01:04:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
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