Sunday, September 26, 2010

2010 College Football Game Prediction Results for Division I-A FBS -- Week 4 (Starting Thursday, September 23, 2010)

Going into the 4th football weekend this season we were 171-34 in calling the winner and 68-69-1 against the spread (betting line).

Thursday, September 23, 2010 
Miami of Florida (27) was the favorite by 4 points at Pittsburgh (50) 
We called it: 24-23 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Our stats favored Miami but we used a home field advantage of 7 rather than 3 points this week, and were definitely wrong in doing that here as the Hurricanes outgained the Panthers 348 to 232 yards in winning dominantly 31-3.
This season thus far we are 171-35 in calling the winner and 68-70-1 against the spread (betting line).

Friday, September 24, 2010
TCU (Texas Christian University) (10) was the favorite by 16 points at Southern Methodist (SMU) (47) 
We called it: 30-24 for TCU.
Result: SMU actually kept the game closer than the final score of 41-24, but had a pass intercepted for a score in the 4th quarter in trying to catch up.
This season thus far we are 172-35 in calling the winner and 68-71-1 against the spread (betting line).

Saturday, September 25, 2010 

Boston College (34) was favored at home by 2 points over Virginia Tech (43) We called it: 30-21 for Boston College.
Result: The Hokies unexpectedly came out of their this season doldrums and shut out the Eagles 19-0.

This season thus far we are 172-36 in calling the winner and 68-72-1 against the spread (betting line).

Iowa (22) was the favorite at home by 28 points over Ball State (104) 
We called it: 40-10 for the Hawkeyes.
Result: The Hawkeyes outgained the Cardinals 562 to 112 yards, averaging 7.7 yards per play to 2.2 yards per play in winning 45-0.
This season thus far we are 173-36 in calling the winner and 69-72-1 against the spread (betting line).

Austin Peay (FCS) wass at Wisconsin (46) (no line)

We called it: 42-14 for Wisconsin.
Result: The Badgers rolled over the Governors 70-3.
This season thus far we are 174-36 in calling the winner and 69-72-1 against the spread (betting line).

Michigan (28) was favored at home by 20 points over Bowling Green (91) We called it: Michigan 52-30.
Result: The Wolverines lost QB Denard Robinson in the first half due to a light knee injury after he had completed 4 of 4 passes for 60 yards and had run five times for 129 yards and two TDs. Backup QBs Tate Forcier completed 12 of 12 passes for 110 yards and 1 TD and Devin Gardner 7 of 10 passes for 85 yards and 1 TD in routing Bowling Green 65-21, averaging 8.8 yards per play to 4.9 for Bowling Green, as defense continues to be Michigan's problem child.
This season thus far we are 175-36 in calling the winner and 70-72-1 against the spread (betting line).

Connecticut (55) was favored at home by 21 points over Buffalo (75) 
We called it: 31-21 for Connecticut.
Result: The Bulls kept it interesting for one half in 14-14 tie score, but then collapsed toward the end of the game and lost 45-21 as the Huskies intercepted a catch-up pass for a TD to inflate the the final margin.
This season thus far we are 176-35 in calling the winner and 70-73-1 against the spread (betting line).

Georgia Tech (31) was favored at home by 9 points over North Carolina State (63) 
We called it: 34-21 for Georgia Tech.
Result: After Georgia Tech pulled to within 31-28 in the 4th quarter, the Wolfpack pulled away to win 45-28.
This season thus far we are 176-36 in calling the winner and 70-74-1 against the spread (betting line).

Northwestern (61) was favored at home by 7.5 points over Central Michigan (24) We called it: 27-24 for Central Michigan.
Result: The game was even at the half 13-13 and both teams put up about the same amount of total offense yardage for the game, but the Wildcats pulled away in the second hafl to win 30-25.
This season thus far we are 176-37 in calling the winner and 71-74-1 against the spread (betting line).

Maryland (67) was favored at home by 7.5 points over Florida International (70) We called it: 21-14 for Maryland.
Result: The Panthers put up more total offense than the Terps but still managed to lose 42-28.
This season thus far we are 177-37 in calling the winner and 71-75-1 against the spread (betting line).

Northern Colorado (FCS) is at Michigan State (11) (! the head coach is ill) We called it: 35-7 for the Spartans
Result: The Spartans won 45-7.
This season thus far we are 178-37 in calling the winner and 71-75-1 against the spread (betting line).

Purdue (76) was favored at home by 11 points over Toledo (99) 
We called it: 27-13 for Purdue.
Result: The Rockets upset the Boilermakers 31-20.
This season thus far we are 178-38 in calling the winner and 71-76-1 against the spread (betting line).

Tennessee (23) was favored at home by 13.5 points over UAB (90) 
We called it:  40-14 for the Vols
Result: The Vols were lucky to escape with a win in 2 overtimes 32-29.
This season thus far we are 179-38 in calling the winner and 71-77-1 against the spread (betting line).

Kansas State (29) was favored at home by 7 points over UCF (33) 
We called it: 28-20 for the Wildcats.
Result: The Wildcats won 17-13.
This season thus far we are 180-38 in calling the winner and 71-78-1 against the spread (betting line).

VMI (Virginia Military Institute) (FCS) is at Virginia 
We called it: 52-0 for Virginia
Result: The Cavaliers beat the Keydets 48-7.
This season thus far we are 181-38 in calling the winner and 71-78-1 against the spread (betting line).

Missouri (38) was favored at home by 18 points over Miami of Ohio (74) 
We called it: 27-13 for the Tigers.
Result: The Tigers won 51-13 against a team that had lost only 34-12 to Florida.
This season thus far we are 182-38 in calling the winner and 71-79-1 against the spread (betting line).

Air Force (20) was the favorite by 12 points at Wyoming (107) 
We called it: 41-24 for Air Force.
Result: The Falcons ralllied from a 14-7 deficit after 3 quarters to win 20-14.
This season thus far we are 183-38 in calling the winner and 71-80-1 against the spread (betting line).

USC (Southern Cal) (40) was the favorite by 24 points at Washington State (106) 
We called it: 37-27 for the Trojans.
Result: The Trojans won 50-16.
This season thus far we are 184-38 in calling the winner and 71-81-1 against the spread (betting line).

Duke (114) was favored at home by 6 points over Army (79) 
We called it: 28-23 for Army.
Result: The Black Knights won 35-21.
This season thus far we are 185-38 in calling the winner and 72-81-1 against the spread (betting line).

Alabama (1) was the favorite by 4 points at Arkansas (6) 
We called it: 30-23 for Alabama.
Result: The Crimson Tide was lucky to win 24-20, equalling the spread, as both teams put up identical 421 yards total offense.
This season thus far we are 186-38 in calling the winner and 72-81-2 against the spread (betting line).

Ohio State (15) was favored at home by 42 points over Eastern Michigan (109) We called it: 37-3 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes won 73-20.
This season thus far we are 187-38 in calling the winner and 72-82-2 against the spread (betting line).

Texas (17) was favored at home by 21 points over UCLA (71) 
We called it: 27-3 for Texas
Result: The Longhorns were upset 34-12 by UCLA as Texas gave up 5 turnovers even though they outgained UCLA 349 to 291 yards.
This season thus far we are 187-39 in calling the winner and 72-83-2 against the spread (betting line).

Stanford (4) was the favorite by 1 point at Notre Dame (60) 
We called it: 40-27 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal prevailed 37-14.
This season thus far we are 188-39 in calling the winner and 73-83-2 against the spread (betting line).

Penn State (66) was favored at home by 15 points over Temple (59). We called it: 24-23 for Temple.
Result: The Nittany Lions, who trailed 13-6 in the first came, came back to win 22-13.
This season thus far we are 188-40 in calling the winner and 74-83-2 against the spread (betting line).

Tulane was at Houston (no line)
We called it: 35-13 for Houston, but who can tell at this point.
Result: The Cougars beat the Green Wave 42-23.
This season thus far we are 189-40 in calling the winner and 74-83-2 against the spread (betting line).

Florida State (14) was favored at home by 19 points over Wake Forest (88) We called it: 28-13 for the Seminoles.
Result: The Seminoles blanked the Demon Deacons 31-0.
This season thus far we are 190-40 in calling the winner and 74-84-2 against the spread (betting line).
North Carolina (77) is at Rutgers (69) (no line)
We called it: 20-10 for Rutgers.
Result: TheTar Heels trailed 10-0 but came back to win 17-13.
This season thus far we are 190-41 in calling the winner and 74-85-2 against the spread (betting line).

Colgate (FCS) is at Syracuse (37) (no line)

We called it: 57-7 for the Orange.
Result: The Orangemen won 42-7.
This season thus far we are 191-41 in calling the winner and 74-85-2 against the spread (betting line).

Troy (86) was favored at home by 11 points over Arkansas State (115) 
We called it: 43-27 for Troy.
Result: Troy won 35-28.
This season thus far we are 192-42 in calling the winner and 74-86-2 against the spread (betting line).

Idaho (78) was the favorite by 7 points at Colorado State (116) 
We called it: 30-21 for Idaho.
Result: The Vandals lost 36-34.
This season thus far we are 192-43 in calling the winner and 74-87-2 against the spread (betting line).

Oklahoma (64) was the favorite by 13 points at Cincinnati (82) 
We called it: 27-24 for Oklahoma.
Result: The Sooners won 31-29.
This season thus far we are 193-43 in calling the winner and 75-87-2 against the spread (betting line).

Nevada (30) was the favorite by 2.5 points at BYU (Brigham Young) (97) We called it: 45-34 for Nevada.
Result: Nevada won 27-13.

This season thus far we are 194-43 in calling the winner and 76-87-2 against the spread (betting line).

South Dakota State (FCS) is at Nebraska 
We called it: 56-7 for the Cornhuskers.
Result: The Huskers turned in a dismal performance against a much weaker FCS opponent and their struggling 17-3 win over the Jackrabbits cast serious doubts about the Big Red rightly being in the top 25, much less being in the top 10. With the the unbalanced, thoughtless offense they showed in this game, they can forget about ranking with the best. The Cornhuskers do not have a dominant running game and if their sideline playcalling does not balance the running game sensibly with an effective passing game, teams will beat them this year. Offensive coordination seems to think that running on the first two downs and passing on the third is creative, but it looks like a stupidly designed football game plan to this observer. Again, the defense saved the day.
This season thus far we are 195-43 in calling the winner and 76-87-2 against the spread (betting line).

Florida (35) was favored at home by 16 points over Kentucky (12) 
We called it: 23-20 for Kentucky.
Result: The Gators won handily 48-14.
This season thus far we are 195-44 in calling the winner and 76-88-2 against the spread (betting line).

Northern Iowa (FCS) is at Iowa State (89) (no line)

We called it: 27-20 for the Cyclones.
Result: The Cyclones won 27-0.
This season thus far we are 196-44 in calling the winner and 76-88-2 against the spread (betting line).

Indiana (58) was favored at home by 15 points over Akron (119) 
We called it: 38-14 for Indiana.
Result: The Hoosiers equalled the spread, winning 35-20.
This season thus far we are 196-44 in calling the winner and 76-88-3 against the spread (betting line).

Central Arkansas (FCS) is at Tulsa (95) 
We called it: 34-27 for Tulsa.
Result: The Golden Hurricane won 41-14.
This season thus far we are 197-44 in calling the winner and 76-88-3 against the spread (betting line).

Marshall (94) was favored at home by 6 points over Ohio (73) 
We called it: 24-23 for Ohio.
Result: The Thundering Herd has the Bobcats number, winning 24-23, as Ohio scored at the end of the 4th quarter and then failed to convert an unnecessary 2-point converstion try.
This season thus far we are 197-45 in calling the winner and 77-88-3 against the spread (betting line).

Louisiana-Lafayette (105) was favored at home by 1 point over Middle Tennessee State (52) 
We called it: 31-23 for Middle Tennessee.
Result: The Blue Raiders beat the Ragin' Cajuns 34-14.
This season thus far we are 198-45 in calling the winner and 78-88-3 against the spread (betting line).

Georgia (41) was the favorite by 3.5 points at Mississippi State (53) 
We called it: 30-24 for Mississippi State.
Result: Mississippi State were the better Bulldogs 24-12.
This season thus far we are 199-45 in calling the winner and 79-88-3 against the spread (betting line).

Florida Atlantic (108) was favored at home by 8 points over North Texas (102) We called it: 31-26 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: The Mean Green finally broke into the winning column again, beating the Owls 21-17.
This season thus far we are 199-46 in calling the winner and 80-88-3 against the spread (betting line).

Kansas (87) was favored at home by 23 points over New Mexico State (118) We called it: 31-14 for Kansas.
Result: The Jayhawks beat the Aggies 42-16.
This season thus far we are 200-46 in calling the winner and 80-89-3 against the spread (betting line).

Southern Miss (54) was the favorite by 6.5 points at Louisiana Tech (112) We called it: 30-21 for Southern Miss.
Result: The Golden Eagles beat the Bulldogs 13-12.
This season thus far we are 201-46 in calling the winner and 80-90-3 against the spread (betting line).

Southeastern Louisiana (FCS) is at Louisiana-Monroe 
We called it: 30-23 for Louisiana-Monroe.
Result: The Warhawks beat the Lions 21-20.
This season thus far we are 202-46 in calling the winner and 80-90-3 against the spread (betting line).

South Florida (49) was favored at home by 28.5 points over Western Kentucky (113) 
We called it: 38-14 for South Florida.
Result: The Bulls beat the Hilltoppers 24-12.
This season thus far we are 203-46 in calling the winner and 81-90-3 against the spread (betting line).

Mississippi (62) was favored at home by 3 points over Fresno State (19)
We called it: 21-16 for Fresno State.
Result: Ole Miss won 55-38.
This season thus far we are 203-47 in calling the winner and 81-91-3 against the spread (betting line).

Auburn (8) was favored at home by 1 point over South Carolina (44) We called it: 35-14 for Auburn.
Result: Auburn won 35-27.
This season thus far we are 204-47 in calling the winner and 82-91-3 against the spread (betting line).

Boise State (5) was favored at home by 16 points over Oregon State (81) We called it: 46-14 for Boise State.
Result: The Broncos beat the Beavers 37-24.
This season thus far we are 205-47 in calling the winner and 82-92-3 against the spread (betting line).

Utah (7) was favored at home by 29 points over San Jose State (110) 
We called it: 46-7 for Utah.
Result: The Utes won 56-3.
This season thus far we are 206-47 in calling the winner and 83-92-3 against the spread (betting line).

San Diego State (26) was favored at home by 6 points over Utah State (68) We called it: 30-13 for San Diego State.
Result: The Aztecs won 41-7.
This season thus far we are 207-47 in calling the winner and 84-92-3 against the spread (betting line).

Baylor (39) was the favorite by 10 points at Rice (92) 
We called it: 34-28 for Baylor.
Result: The Bears beat the Owls 30-13.
This season thus far we are 208-47 in calling the winner and 84-93-3 against the spread (betting line).

Minnesota (111) was favored at home by 5 points over Northern Illinois (83) We called it: 27-24 for Northern Illinois.
Result: The Huskies beat the Gophers 34-23.
This season thus far we are 209-47 in calling the winner and 85-93-3 against the spread (betting line).

LSU (25) was favored at home by 5 points over West Virginia (45) We called it: 26-14 for LSU.
Result: The Tigers beat the Mountaineers 20-14.
This season thus far we are 210-47 in calling the winner and 86-93-3 against the spread (betting line).

UTEP (93) was favored at home by 11 points over Memphis (101) 
We called it: 34-24 for UTEP.
Result: The Miners won 16-13.
This season thus far we are 211-47 in calling the winner and 87-93-3 against the spread (betting line).

Arizona (9) was favored at home by 4.5 points over California (18) We called it: 26-14 for Arizona.
Result: The Wildcats beat the Golden Bears 10-9.
This season thus far we are 212-47 in calling the winner and 87-94-3 against the spread (betting line).

UNLV (117) was favored at home by 10 points over New Mexico (120)
We called it: 38-26 for UNLV.
Result: The Rebels beat the Lobos 45-10.
This season thus far we are 213-47 in calling the winner and 88-94-3 against the spread (betting line).

Oregon (3) was the favorite by 10.5 points at Arizona State (32) 
We called it: 27-14 for Oregon.
Result: The Ducks won 42-31.
This season thus far we are 214-47 in calling the winner and 89-94-3 against the spread (betting line).

Charleston Southern (FCS) is at Hawaii 
We called it: 41-7 for Hawaii.
Result: The Warriors beat the Buccaneers 66-7.
This season thus far we are 215-47 in calling the winner and 89-94-3 against the spread (betting line).

Friday, September 24, 2010

Nebraska and the Big 12 Conference Reach $9.255 Million Settlement on the Huskers Joining the Big 10 Conference July 1, 2011

Steve Sipple at Life in The Red on Husker Extra reports in Nebraska, Big 12 reach settlement that the financial details of Nebraska's shift to the Big 10 Conference on July 1, 2011 have been settled with the Big 12 Conference.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

BCS Bowl Game Status as 501(c)3 Tax-Exempt Non-Profit Charities To Be Challenged

I am afraid that all of the misguided citizens -- especially those who have time to waste at "tea parties" -- who are talking about "tax cuts" are missing the more obvious solution to government financing -- and that is to tax those who SHOULD be taxed, rather then letting them operate as freebies under the system.

Things like religion and sports come to mind.... or put another way, why should an already overloaded taxpayer subsidize religions to which he does not belong? or commercial sports ventures masquerading as charities?

See in this regard AP Exclusive: Tax status of bowl games challenged - College Football - Rivals.com for the main story by Frederic J. Frommer, Associated Press Writer in an AP Exclusive, linked here to Rivals.Yahoo.com.

Our comment to the overinflated salaries at the BCS bowls and elsewhere in the American economic system. Replace the multitude of those plundering the system with people willing to work for 1/10 the salaries that the plundering multitude now obtains.

It will work. No problem. Run a few test cases. If we can put salary caps on sports, we can do it elsewhere in the economic sphere.

While the often dirt poor young kids who play the game of football at colleges and universities are being ripped by the NCAA for even looking at a dollar, one finds an enormous entourage of people who reap thousands and even millions of dollars per year (e.g. coaches) from the alleged non-commercial industry of college football.

Essentially, non-profit status for bowl games as charities is a legal joke, perpetuated by well-meaning but uniformed judges and legal commentators who continue to think that amateur sports are non-commercial.

Not on this planet.

Monday, September 20, 2010

2010 College Football Game Predictions for Division I-A FBS -- Week 4 (Starting Thursday, September 23, 2010)

This season YPPSYS is thus far 171-34 in calling the winner and 68-69-1 against the spread (the number of points by which any team is favored). We rely on schedule difficulty and NAYPPA, the net average yards per play advantage of any team in total offense as our two main prediction parameters. Almost all calculations are done by hand. We also make subjective judgments in our prognostications, not always predicting according to the stats, which are found in our post-Week 3 YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.

Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware). We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

We take the so-called betting "line" for any game ("the spread") from the College Football Prediction Tracker, this week as of Monday, September 20, 2010 at 10:10 AM or if unavailable from Yahoo Odds at Rivals.com. If we use another source, that is noted next to the game call. The line changes for many games during the week but we do not take that into account in making our prognostications. Once we make a prediction, that's it.

According to the Massey ratings, the average score in 1015 games this season has been 36 to 15. As in all past years - our discovery, see cfbstats.com, the "mean" total offense (i.e. the offense of the ca. 60th viz. 61st team of 120 in FBS) this year is a constant ca. 5.5 net average yards per play while the "mean" total defense is ca. 5.1 viz. 5.2. This latter stat is almost always ca. 5.4 at season's end but is a bit lower right now because so many FBS teams have been playing FCS teams, which brings down this stat. These "mean" yards per play values on offense and defense can be used to predict scores in a given game, depending on the data for the opposing teams, and we do so. For example, a game of two teams with an average sum of yards per play should net about 51 points.

According to the Massey ratings, the home team won over 61% of the games (606 to 382). Traditionally, we have used an average home field advantage of 3 points, but that includes games in which the home team also loses by big margins. We are losing a lot of close predictions because home teams do better than expected in close games. The actual statistical home field advantage for teams in close games is probably more than 3 and for the prognostications in close games this week involving a favored visiting team, we are using a home field advantage of 7, i.e. one TD plus the extra point. It will be interesting to see if this makes any difference to our beating the spread in more games.

The number in parentheses is our current ranking of that team.


Thursday, September 23, 2010

Miami of Florida (27) is the favorite by 4 points at Pittsburgh (50)
We call it: 24-23 for Pittsburgh. Our stats rate Miami one rating point better than Pittsburgh, which equals 6 points on the scoreboard in our YPPSYS system. A normal home team advantage by Pitt of 3 points would then favor the Hurricanes by 3. Using a home field advantage of 7 (see the discussion above), we call the game 24-23 for the Panthers.

Friday, September 24, 2010

TCU (Texas Christian University) (10) is the favorite by 16 points at Southern Methodist (SMU) (47)
We call it: 30-24 for TCU. Our stats favor TCU by 2.2 rating points, which is 13 points on the scoreboard, a home field advantage of 7 = 6 points.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Boston College (34) is favored at home by 2 points over Virginia Tech (43)
We call it: 30-21 for Boston College. YPPSYS favors Boston College by 2 points plus the home field advantage.

Iowa (22) is the favorite at home by 28 points over Ball State (104)
We call it: 40-10 for the Hawkeyes. YPPSYS favors Iowa by 3.8 rating points = 23 points plus the home field advantage. We calculate the home field advantage as 7 for a team returning from a disappointing loss at Arizona.

Austin Peay (FCS) is at Wisconsin (46)
We call it: 42-14 for Wisconsin.


Michigan (28) is favored at home by 20 points over Bowling Green (91)
We call it: Michigan 52-30. YPPSYS rates Michigan 2.6 rating points better than the Falcons = 15.6 scoreboard points, plus an advantage of 7 points for the "Big House".

Connecticut (55) is favored at home by 21 points over Buffalo (75)
We call it: 31-21 for Connecticut. YPPSYS makes the Huskies 3.6 point favorites over the Bulls plus the home field advantage for which we here assign 7 points = 10 points.

Georgia Tech (31) is favored at home by 9 points over North Carolina State (63)
We call it: 34-21 for Georgia Tech. YPPSYS rates the Yellow Jackets 1.1 rating points better which is 6.6 points on the scoreboard plus a 7 point home field advantage = 13 points.


Northwestern (61) is favored at home by 7.5 points over Central Michigan (24)
We call it: 27-24 for Central Michigan. YPPSYS rates the Chippewas 1.6 rating points better = 9.6 scoreboard points minus the home field advantage of 7 = 3 points.

Maryland (67) is favored at home by 7.5 points over Florida International (70)
We call it: 21-14 for Maryland. FIU seems to have an improved team this year. Our stats make these teams even so the home field advantage favors Maryland by 7. The Golden Panthers lost two heartbreakers to Rutgers and Texas A&M and have a chance to win this one against the Terps because of their defense.

Northern Colorado (FCS) is at Michigan State (11) (! the head coach is ill)
We call it: 35-7 for the Spartans

Purdue (76) is favored at home by 11 points over Toledo (99)
We call it: 27-13 for Purdue. YPPSYS favors the Boilermakers by 1.2 rating points = 7.2 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 14 points.

Tennessee (23) is favored at home by 13.5 points over UAB (90)
We call it:  40-14 for the Vols. YPPSYS favors the Volunteers by 3.1 rating points = 18.6 scoreboard points plus 7 for the home field = 26 points.

Kansas State (29) is favored at home by 7 points over UCF (33)
We call it: 28-20 for the Wildcats. YPPSYS sees this game as even with the edge going to the Wildcats by virtue of the home field advantage. Since that puts us identical with the line, we add 1 point for the Wildcats.

VMI (Virginia Military Institute) (FCS) is at Virginia
We call it: 52-0 for Virginia


Missouri (38) is favored at home by 18 points over Miami of Ohio (74)
We call it: 27-13 for the Tigers. YPPSYS favors Missouri by 1.2 rating points = 7.2 points on the scoreboard plus a 7-point home field advantage = 14 points

Air Force (20) is the favorite by 12 points at Wyoming (107)
We call it: 41-24 for Air Force. YPPSYS favors the Falcons by 4.1 rating points = 24.6 scoreboard points minus the 7-point home field advantage for the Cowboys = 17 points.

USC (Southern Cal) (40) is the favorite by 24 points at Washington State (106)
We call it: 37-27 for the Trojans. YPPSYS favors USC by 2.8 rating points = 16.8 scoreboard points minus the home field advantage of 7 points = 10 points.


Duke (114) is favored at home by 6 points over Army (79)
We call it: 28-23 for Army. YPPSYS favors the Black Knights by 1.9 rating points = 11.4 points on the scoreboard minus the 7 points awarded for the home field = 4 points.

Alabama (1) is the favorite by 4 points at Arkansas (6)
We call it: 30-23 for Alabama. This is the big match of the day in terms of matching the highest ranked teams. YPPSYS makes the Crimson Tide 1.3 rating points better than the Razorbacks or 7.8 scoreboard points minus the home field advantage makes this a close game. Nevertheless, we doubt that the Hogs have the player material to overcome Saban's well-oiled juggernaut.

Ohio State (15) is favored at home by 42 points over Eastern Michigan (109)
We call it: 37-3 for Ohio State. YPPSYS ranks the Buckeyes so low because their yards per play stats in part against weak opponents are not impressive. YPPSYS makes Ohio State 4.5 rating points better than the Eagles or 27 points on the scoreboard plus 7 for the home field advantage makes 34.

Texas (17) is favored at home by 21 points over UCLA (71)
We call it: 27-3 for Texas. YPPSYS ranks the Longhorns so low because their yards per play stats in part against weak opponents are not impressive. YPPSYS makes Texas 2.4 rating points better than UCLA or 14.4 points plus the home field advantage also makes 21. Stanford beat UCLA 35-0 but has a superior offense whereas Texas has a better defense.

Stanford (4) is the favorite by 1 point at Notre Dame (60)
We call it: 40-27 for Stanford. YPPSYS makes the Cardinal 3.4 rating points better than Fighting Irish or 20.4 scoreboard points, minus the Notre Dame home field advantage makes 13 points.

Penn State (66) is favored at home by 15 points over Temple (59).
We call it: 24-23 for Temple. YPPSYS favors Temple by 2 points minus the home field advantage, which would give the edge to the Nittany Lions. Penn State just beat Kent State 24-0, an opponent that Temple beat last year 47-13. We see a definite "upset" possibility by the Owls over their heralded Big 10 foe.

Tulane is at Houston (Heisman Trophy hopeful Case Keenum is out for the season after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament in his knee trying to make a tackle after an interception by UCLA, while his backup Cotton Turner broke his clavicle subsequently, so Houston is currently an unknown on offense).
We call it: 35-13 for Houston, but who can tell at this point.

Florida State (14) is favored at home by 19 points over Wake Forest (88)
We call it: 28-13 for the Seminoles.


North Carolina (77) is at Rutgers (69) (no line)
We call it: 20-10 for Rutgers.

Colgate (FCS) is at Syracuse (37)
We call it: 57-7 for the Orange

Troy (86) is favored at home by 11 points over Arkansas State (115)
We call it: 43-27 for Troy. YPPSYS makes the Trojans 1.5 rating points better than the Red Wolves or 9 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage makes 16.


Idaho (78) is the favorite by 7 points at Colorado State (116)
We call it: 30-21 for Idaho. YPPSYS favors Idaho by 2 rating points or 12 scoreboard points minus the home field advantage, which we see here as 3 points.

Oklahoma (64) is the favorite by 13 points at Cincinnati (82)
We call it: 27-24 for Oklahoma. YPPSYS ranks the Sooners so low because their yards per play stats in part against weak opponents are so terrible that they gain fewer yards per play than the opposition. That is not the sign of a dominant team. YPPSYS favors the Sooners by .7 rating points or 4 scoreboard points so that Cincinnati with the home field advantage could theoretically win this game. We nevertheless go with the Sooners to win since the stats may mask a better team.

Nevada (30) is the favorite by 2.5 points at BYU (Brigham Young) (97)
We call it: 45-34 for Nevada. BYU has fallen from the mighty this year and is virtually unrecognizable. YPPSYS favors Nevada by 3.0 rating points or 18 scoreboard points minus the BYU home field advantage, makes it 11.

South Dakota State (FCS) is at Nebraska
We call it: 56-7 for the Cornhuskers. The Huskers should be able to build up a large lead early in this game and then give the Big Red back-up players a chance to play.

Florida (35) is favored at home by 16 points over Kentucky (12)
We call it: 23-20 for Kentucky. YPPSYS ranks the Gators so low because their yards per play stats in part against weak opponents are poor. Our stats would make the Wildcats 1.5 rating points or 9 points better minus the home field advantage makes 2. The game should be close. 

Northern Iowa (FCS) is at Iowa State (89)
We call it: 27-20 for the Cyclones. The Bison beat North Dakota State, the team that beat Kansas, so this is no guaranteed win for the Cyclones.


Indiana (58) is favored at home by 15 points over Akron (119)
We call it: 38-14 for Indiana. The Hoosiers by YPPSYS have a 3.5 point rating advantage or 21 points, plus the home field advantage makes 28. Akron this year even lost to Gardner-Webb.

Central Arkansas (FCS) is at Tulsa (95)
We call it: 34-27 for Tulsa. Eastern Illinois lost to Iowa and Central Arkansas by the same 37-7 margin, so one can not take the Bears lightly, especially given the Golden Hurricane's weak defense.

Marshall (94) is favored at home by 6 points over Ohio (73)
We call it: 24-23 for Ohio. YPPSYS favors Ohio by 1.2 ranking points or 7.2 points minus the home field advantage. Ohio State at home beat Marshall this year 45-7 and Ohio 43-7. Last year Marshall beat Ohio 21-17 in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl so Ohio has a lot on the line here.

Louisiana-Lafayette (105) is favored at home by 1 point over Middle Tennessee State (52)
We call it: 31-23 for Middle Tennessee. YPPSYS favors the Blue Raiders by 2.6 rating points over Ragin' Cajuns or 15.6 points minus the home field advantage.

Georgia (41) is the favorite by 3.5 points at Mississippi State (53)
We call it: 30-24 for Mississippi State. By YPPSYS, Georgia is favored by 0.2 rating points or 1.2 scoreboard points, minus the home field advantage, which could shift this game to Mississippi State.

Florida Atlantic (108) is favored at home by 8 points over North Texas (102)
We call it: 31-26 for Florida Atlantic. YPPSYS rates North Texas .3 rating points better or 1.8 points on the scoreboard, minus the Owls home advantage, makes Florida Atlantic the favorite by 5.

Kansas (87) is favored at home by 23 points over New Mexico State (118)
We call it: 31-14 for Kansas. YPPSYS rates Kansas 1.7 rating points better or 10.2 scoreboard points, plus the home field advantage makes 17 points.

Southern Miss (54) is the favorite by 6.5 points at Louisiana Tech (112)
We call it: 30-21 for Southern Miss. YPPSYS rates Southern Miss 2.7 rating points better or 16.2 scoreboard points minus the home field advantage makes 9 points.

Southeastern Louisiana (FCS) is at Louisiana-Monroe
We call it: 30-23 for Louisiana-Monroe.

South Florida (49) is favored at home by 28.5 points over Western Kentucky (113)
We call it: 38-14 for South Florida. YPPSYS makes the Bulls 2.9 rating points or 17.4 scoreboard points better plus the home field advantage.

Mississippi (62) is favored at home by 3 points over Fresno State (19)
We call it: 21-16 for Fresno State. YPPSYS makes the Bulldogs 2.0 rating points better than Ole Miss or 12 scoreboard points.

Auburn (8) is favored at home by 1 point over South Carolina (44)
We call it: 35-14 for Auburn. YPPSYS makes the Tigers 2.4 rating points better than the Gamecocks or 14.4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage.

Boise State (5) is favored at home by 16 points over Oregon State (81)
We call it: 46-14 for Boise State. YPPSYS makes the Broncos 4.2 rating points better than the Beavers or 25.2 points plus the home field advantage. Week in and week out Boise State is over-motivated to prove that is a great team because of its neglect or under-rating by the BCS and the polls, which is bad news each week for its opponents.


Utah (7) is favored at home by 29 points over San Jose State (110)
We call it: 46-7 for Utah. The Utes are rated 5.4 rating points better than the Spartans by YPPSYS or 32.4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage.

San Diego State (26) is favored at home by 6 points over Utah State (68)
We call it: 30-13 for San Diego State. YPPSYS makes the Aztecs 1.6 rating points better than the Aggies or 9.6 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage.

Baylor (39) is the favorite by 10 points at Rice (92)
We call it: 34-28 for Baylor. YPPSYS makes the Bears 2.2 rating points better or 13.2 scoreboard points minus the home field advantage. If we make the home field advantage 3 points, as is customary, then we equal the spread, and 7 points for the home field advantage would make the Baylor advantage only 6 points over the Owls.

Minnesota (111) is favored at home by 5 points over Northern Illinois (83)
We call it: 27-24 for Northern Illinois. YPPSYS makes the Huskies 1.7 rating points or 10.2 scoreboard points better, minus the home field advantage.

LSU (25) is favored at home by 5 points over West Virginia (45)
We call it: 26-14 for LSU. YPPSYS favors LSU by 0.9 rating points or 5.4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage makes 12 points.

UTEP (93) is favored at home by 11 points over Memphis (101)
We call it: 34-24 for UTEP. YPPSYS favors the Miners by 0.5 rating points or 3 scoreboard points over the Tigers plus the home field advantage makes maximally 10.


Arizona (9) is favored at home by 4.5 points over California (18)
We call it: 26-14 for Arizona. The Wildcats are favored by YPPSYS as 0.9 rating points or 5.4 scoreboard points better than the Golden Bears plus the home field advantage makes 12 points.


UNLV (117) is favored at home by 10 points over New Mexico (120)
We call it: 38-26 for UNLV. YPPSYS rates these two teams among the worst four teams in FBS, with the Rebels rated 0.8 rating points or 4.8 scoreboard points better than the FBS last-placed Lobos, plus the home field advantage. When two of the worst FBS offenses meet, what does this mean for the score?

Oregon (3) is the favorite by 10.5 points at Arizona State (32)
We call it: 27-14 for Oregon. YPPSYS makes the Ducks 3.2 rating points or 19.2 scoreboard points better than the Sun Devils, minus the home field advantage.

Charleston Southern (FCS) is at Hawaii
We call it: 41-7 for Hawaii.

YPPSYS College Football Rankings and Ratings 2010/2011 NCAA FBS (Division I-A) after Week 3 of Play

These are the YPPSYS college football rankings and ratings for NCAA Division I-A (FBS) after the 3rd week of play 2010/2011. See YPPSYS (yards per play and schedule difficulty system) for system details.

NAYPPA = net average yards per play advantage and YPP = yards per play. Yards per play on offense is used in terms of the yards per play allowed on defense to arrive at net average, plus or minus. Adjusted by schedule difficulty, NAYPPA is our major variable for the rating and ranking of teams, with special adjustments made for the quality of offense and defense and for each lost game. See here for more explanation.

Yards per play (YPP) statistics are taken either from the individual cumulative stats at each school (linked at YPP OFF) or from cfbstats.com.

We estimate the schedule difficulty from our own YPPSYS ratings and rankings and/or from Massey Ratings and Sagarin.

YPPSYS College Football Rankings and Ratings 2010/2011 NCAA FBS (Division I-A) after Week 3 of Play

YPPSYS
Rank after Week 3 Games

TEAMNAYPPA
(2010)

YPP OFF
YPP DEF

Schedule difficulty
thus far
(estim.)

W-L (2010)
Current
Season
Rating based on performance
(*adjusted)

1 Alabama 4.6
8.6
4.0^^

80
3-0
4.0
2 Nebraska 4.3
8.5
4.2^^

80
3-0
3.7
3 Oregon 4.2
7.2
3.0^^^

80
3-0
3.7
4 Stanford 3.4
7.1
3.7^^^

80
3-0
2.9
5 Boise State 3.1
7.0
3.9^^^

60
2-0
2.8
6 Arkansas 3.5
7.7
4.2^^

100
3-0
2.7
7 Utah 3.1
6.9
3.8^^^

90
3-0
2.5
8 Auburn 2.8
7.2
4.4^^

60
3-0
2.4
9 Arizona 2.8
6.6
3.8^^^

90
3-0
2.3
10 TCU 2.7
6.8
4.1^^

80
3-0
2.1
11 Michigan State 2.7
7.3
4.6^

80
3-0
2.0
12 Kentucky 3.0
7.5
4.5^

130
3-0
1.8
13 Oklahoma State 2.6
7.6
5.0

80
3-0
1.8
14 Florida State 2.4
6.7
4.3^^

60
2-1
1.8
15 Ohio State 2.1
6.2
4.1^^

60
3-0
1.7
16 Texas A&M 2.3
5.9
3.6^^^

100
3-0
1.6
17 Texas 1.5
5.0
3.5^^^

40
3-0
1.4
18 California 2.4
6.8
4.4^^

100
2-1
1.4
19 Fresno State 1.7
5.6
3.9^^^

60
2-0
1.4
20 Air Force 2.0
6.8
4.8^

60
2-1
1.3
21 Houston 2.6
7.6
5.0

110
2-1
1.3
22 Iowa 1.9
6.3
4.4^^

80
2-1
1.1
23 Tennessee 1.5
6.0
4.5^

10
1-2
1.1
24 Centr. Michigan 2.3
6.0
3.7^^^

140
2-1
1.0
25 LSU 0.9
5.3
4.4^^

20
3-0
0.9
26 San Diego State 2.2
6.9
4.7^

120
2-1
0.9
27 Miami (Florida) 1.8
5.9
4.1^^

100
1-1
0.8
28 Michigan 1.1
7.0
5.9*

40
3-0
0.6
29 Kansas State 1.5
6.4
4.9^

100
3-0
0.6
30 Nevada 1.5
7.5
6.0**

70
3-0
0.6
31 Georgia Tech 1.4
6.3
4.9^

80
2-1
0.5
32 Arizona State 1.8
6.6
4.8^

120
2-1
0.5
33 UCF 1.4
5.4
4.0^^

90
2-1
0.5
34 Boston College 1.5
5.7
4.2^^

130
2-0
0.4
35Florida0.4
4.9
4.5^^

30
3-0
0.3
36 Virginia 0.7
5.8
5.1

20
1-1
0.3
37 Syracuse 1.3
5.7
4.4^^

100
2-1
0.3
38 Missouri 0.9
5.6
4.7^

80
3-0
0.2
39 Baylor 1.3
6.2
4.9^

100
2-1
0.2
40 USC 0.8
6.5
5.7*

70
3-0
0.0
41 Georgia 0.5
5.6
5.1

10
1-2
0.0
42 Clemson 1.2
6.7
5.5*

90
2-1
0.0
43 Virginia Tech 0.8
6.1
5.3

40
1-2
0.0
44 South Carolina 0.7
5.9
5.2

70
3-0
0.0
45 West Virginia 0.9
5.5
4.6^^

10
3-0
0.0
46 Wisconsin 0.9
6.4
5.5*

80
3-0
0.0
47 SMU 0.8
5.9
5.1

70
2-1
-0.1
48 Navy 0.8
5.7
4.9^

90
2-1
-0.2
49 South Florida 0.7
6.4
5.7*

60
1-1
-0.2
50 Pittsburgh 0.3
5.5
5.2

70
1-1
-0.2
51 Washington 0.6
5.6
6.2**

20
1-2
-0.2
52 Mid. Tennessee 1.5
6.1
4.6^

140
1-2
-0.2
53 Mississippi St. 0.6
5.5
4.9^

70
1-2
-0.4
54 Southern Miss 0.8
5.6
4.8^

110
2-1
-0.4
55 Connecticut 1.0
5.9
4.9^

110
1-2
-0.4
56 Illinois 0.7
5.6
4.9^

100
2-1
-0.4
57 Hawai'i 1.0
7.1
6.1**

80
1-2
-0.4
58 Indiana 1.1
6.4
5.3

150
2-0
-0.4
59 Temple 0.1
5.2
5.1

50
3-0
-0.4
60 Notre Dame 0.5
6.2
5.7*

50
1-2
-0.5
61 Northwestern 0.4
5.6
5.2

100
3-0
-0.6
62 Mississippi 0.8
5.9
5.1

100
1-2
-0.6
63 N.C. State 0.4
5.5
5.1

80
2-1
-0.6
64 Oklahoma -0.3
5.3
5.6*

30
3-0
-0.7
65 Texas Tech 0.0
4.8
4.8^

60
2-1
-0.7
66 Penn State 0.4
5.5
5.1

90
2-1
-0.7
67 Maryland 0.7
5.4
4.7^

130
2-1
-0.7
68 Utah State 0.7
5.8
5.1

100
1-2
-0.7
69 Rutgers 0.3
4.8
4.5^

120
2-0
-0.8
70 Florida Int. FIU -0.1
4.3
4.4^^

50
0-2
-0.8
71 UCLA -0.3
4.9
5.2

30
1-2
-1.0
72 Louisville 0.4
5.9
5.5*

90
1-2
-1.0
73 Ohio -0.4
4.0
4.4^^

80
1-2
-1.0
74 Miami (Ohio) -0.1
4.5
4.6^

80
2-1
-1.0
75 Buffalo 0.1
4.6
4.5^

80
1-2
-1.0
76 Purdue -0.1
5.1
5.2

90
2-1
-1.2
77 North Carolina -0.3
5.8
6.1**

30
0-2
-1.2
78 Idaho -0.1
5.2
5.3

100
2-1
-1.2
79 Army -0.2
5.0
5.2

90
2-1
-1.3
80 Vanderbilt -0.5
4.8
5.3

50
1-2
-1.4
81 Oregon State -0.6
5.1
5.7*

50
1-1
-1.4
82 Cincinnati -0.1
5.1
5.2

90
1-2
-1.4
83 Northern Illinois 0.2
5.8
5.6*

110
1-2
-1.4
84 Kent State 0.3
4.5
4.2^^

150
1-2
-1.4
85 Colorado -0.7
4.7
5.4

50
2-1
-1.4
86 Troy -0.4
5.9
6.3**

70
1-2
-1.7
87 Kansas -0.8
4.3
5.1

60
1-2
-1.8
88 Wake Forest -0.6
5.8
6.4*

90
2-1
-1.8
89 Iowa State -1.0
4.6
5.6*

50
1-2
-2.0
90 UAB -0.5
6.1
6.6**

100
1-2
-2.0
91 Bowling Green -0.8
4.9
5.7*

70
1-2
-2.0
92 Rice -1.0
4.6
5.6*

70
1-2
-2.0
93 UTEP -0.4
6.6
6.2**

120
2-1
-2.0
94 Marshall -0.9
5.1
6.0**

50
0-3
-2.2
95 Tulsa -0.8
6.2
7.0***

70
1-2
-2.2
96 East Carolina -1.2
5.7
6.9**

80
2-1
-2.4
97 BYU -1.6
4.5
6.1*

30
1-2
-2.4
98 Tulane -0.8
4.4
5.2

130
1-1
-2.4
99 Toledo -1.5
3.7
5.2

70
2-1
-2.4
100 West. Michigan -1.1
4.8
5.9*

80
1-2
-2.4
101 Memphis -1.2
4.9
6.1**

70
1-2
-2.5
102 North Texas -0.9
5.1
6.0**

80
0-3
-2.5
103 Louis.-Monroe -1.4
4.9
6.3**

60
0-2
-2.6
104 Ball State -0.9
4.7
5.6*

130
1-2
-2.7
105 Louis.-Lafayette -1.7
4.6
6.3**

70
1-1
-2.8
106 Washington St. -1.5
5.0
6.5**

70
1-2
-2.8
107 Wyoming -1.7
4.5
6.2**

50
1-2
-2.8
108 Florida Atlantic -1.7
5.3
7.0***

60
1-1
-2.8
109 East. Michigan -1.4
4.9
6.3*

70
0-3
-2.8
110 San Jose State -1.6
4.5
6.1**

70
1-2
-2.9
111 Minnesota -1.7
5.5
7.2***

70
1-2
-3.1
112 Louisiana Tech -1.7
4.5
6.2**

80
1-2
-3.1
113 West. Kentucky -2.1
5.4
7.5***

10
0-3
-3.1
114 Duke -1.9
5.7
7.6***

60
1-2
-3.2
115 Arkansas State -1.7
5.6
7.3***

80
1-2
-3.2
116 Colorado State -1.8
4.4
6.2**

60
0-3
-3.2
117 UNLV -2.2
4.0
6.2**

50
0-3
-3.5
118 New Mexico St. -2.1
5.0
7.1***

70
0-2
-3.5
119 Akron -2.3
3.9
6.2**

80
0-3
-3.9
120 New Mexico -3.4
3.6
7.0***

0
0-3
-4.3

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