Tuesday, November 29, 2011

College Football Rankings and Ratings 2011 FBS by SportPundit - After Week 13 of Play

 
College Football Rankings and Ratings 2011 FBS by SportPundit - After Week 13 of Play 
-- by YPPSYS (yards per play system) and NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage)
-- modified by schedule difficulty and losses

General observations on our system as based on net average yards per play advantage (NAYPPA) minus schedule difficulty and losses:

Year in and year out, yards per play per team for a season is a very constant statistic in FBS football (our discovery some years ago), with a mean for 120 FBS teams (i.e. at ca. position 60 or 61 of those 120 teams for each parameter) of about 5.3 to 5.5 yards on offense and defense (the stat is out of whack at the beginning of the year because of easy schedules but evens out for all 120 teams in the course of a normal season). The steadiness of this stat is really quite remarkable in view of ever-changing offenses and defenses, strategies, and tactics. See YPP (yards per play) applied at: The Best College Football Teams of All Time Can Be Narrowed Down Using NAYPPA - Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage, where the greatest teams approach a NAYPPA stat of near to 3.0 Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage (yards per play offense vs. yards per play defense), but not more, even though Boise State last year set the modern FBS record with 3.5, but lost a game and hence can not be counted to the greatest teams. Hence, if teams now have stats above a NAYPPA of 3, those drop in the course of a season.

The YPPSYS rating system of two primary parameters -- NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage) and schedule difficulty -- (plus we add a 0.2 penalty for each loss) gets more accurate in judging a team's strength as the season wears on, rivalling pure points, i.e. margin of victory, as a good predictor of game outcomes (see the somewhat adjusted final 2010 YPPSYS ratings and rankings). YPPSYS stats can of course be supplemented by margin of victory, won-loss record, turnover ratio, big gainers, total yardage stats, quality of the head coach and coaching staff, conference affiliation, home field advantage, player injuries, etc., but for that we would have to computerize the whole thing, whereas we do it here by hand just for fun, and also apply subjective judgment where we want. Please do not rely on our stats or analysis for any football wagering or betting. See the next paragraph.

Caveat emptor. Buyer beware! We make no guarantees or warranties of accuracy and disclaim any and all liability for anyone using our stats, rankings and ratings for any purpose!

We have simplified YPPSYS (yards per play system) in 2011 so that team ratings for 2011 are NOT fully comparable with team ratings for 2010, even if the ratings LOOK similar.

Yards per play stats (ypp) are taken as available from Yahoo Sports Rivals.com, ESPN College Football, cfbstats.com, and/or individual team stat pages, so that the links that you find for any team in the rankings may not always point to the most current stat source.

To determine schedule difficulty at this early stage of the season, in the 1st week we took the average of schedule difficulty given at Massey Ratings plus Sagarin USA Today. We took their sum, then multiplied that by 2, divided by 100 to get a decimal fraction and took that amount off the NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage).

From Week 2 to Week 5, we used Sagarin alone, unless there is a specific link to Massey Ratings, AND in the second week we use schedule difficulty without doubling, but do divide the schedule difficulty by 100 to give a decimal fraction that is subtracted from the NAYPPA. Yards per play on offense and defense are very much a function of the strength of the opponent played, so that this schedule difficulty adjustment is essential.

For Week 6, since Massey Ratings had their ratings up before Sagarin -- that was a new development -- we used the Massey Ratings schedule difficulty (SchP = schedule thus far played).

For Week 7, we used the schedule difficulty ranking at Sagarin USA Today. 

For Week 8, we used our own schedule difficulty calculation based on opponent rankings at Massey Ratings, with the change that we rated no opponent worse than 120th. 

For Ratings at the end of Week 9, we used the Sagarin schedule difficulty ratings. In addition, we calculated the best win rank and the worst loss rank based on the Sagarin predictor, add those two together and subtracted 1/100th of that sum from the rating since the best win and worst loss help to place a team in a certain level of performance. This still ded not give perfect results, but was thought to be an improvement over what we have been using -- which turned out not to be so.

We did no ratings at the end of Week 10 because of time constraints caused by other matters.


Starting Week 11 etc., we have gone back to our basic system, which seems to work best as the season progresses.

As of the 2nd week, .2 is also subtracted from NAYPPA for every game lost, since losses reflect weaknesses which may not surface in yards per play stats -- e.g. turnovers.

This system, as all ranking and ratings systems, is imperfect, but the YPPSYS yards per play approach can provide a general objective idea as to how college football teams actually are performing, rather than concentrating on team ratings based in good part on the subjective judgments of various polls, although the rankings generally are very similar as the season progresses, whether one uses subjective or objective criteria, or a combination of the two.

The red figures in parentheses next to the current ranking in black are last year's final post-bowl rankings on YPPSYS. Although there are always exceptions to the rule, as a general rule, not that much changes from one year to the next, so these are a good check on whether current rankings or ratings are sensible, regardless of stats.

College Football Rankings and Ratings 2011 FBS
After Week 13 of Play -- by YPPSYS and NAYPPA

YPPSYS
2011
Team
Rankings
after
Week 13
of Play
(2010 rank in red)
The
Football
TEAM
that was
ranked &
rated		NAYPPA
2010
2011
(net
average
yards
per play
advant-
age)
YPP OFF
2010
2011
yards per play offense
YPP DEF
2010
2011
yards
per
play defense  

Schedule difficulty 
2010
2011
(up to the games played)
won-loss record of opponents

W-L
record

2010
2011
YPPSYS
Team
Rating based on ypp
advantage
minus
schedule
difficulty
2010
2011
and losses


1 (4)
Alabama
 2.4
3.1
7.0
6.5
4.6
3.4

14
23
10-3
11-1
1.5
2.7
2 (74) Houston 0.6
3.0
6.4
8.0
5.8
5.0

89
111
5-7
12-0
-3.3
1.9
3 (12) LSU 0.4
2.0
5.3
6.0
4.9
4.0

15
20
11-2
12-0
0.0
1.8
4 (10) Wisconsin
1.4
2.5
6.7
7.1
5.3
4.6

38
64
11-2
10-2
0.1
1.5
5 (9) Oklahoma State 1.9
1.8
6.9
7.2
5.0
5.4

34
8
11-2
10-1
0.8
1.5
6 (2) Oregon 2.0
2.1
6.7
7.1
4.7
4.9

7
25
12-1
10-2
1.6
1.4
7 (3)Stanford 1.6
1.5
6.7
6.8
5.1
5.3

2
35
12-1
11-1
1.5
1.0
8 (15) Oklahoma0.5
1.5
5.6
6.6
5.1
5.1

20
10 
12-2
9-2
-0.4
1.0
9 (27) Georgia 0.9
1.5
6.1
5.9
5.2
4.4

26
39
6-7
10-2
-0.8
0.7
10 (21) South Carolina
0.6
1.3
6.0
5.5
5.4
4.2

11
33
9-5
10-2
-0.5
0.6
11 (17) Michigan State 0.9
1.6
6.2
5.8
5.3
4.2

43
55
11-2
10-2
-0.4
0.6
12 (29) USC 0.1
1.1
6.0
6.5
5.9
5.4

5
19
8-5
10-2
-0.9
0.5
13 (42)
 Baylor
0.8
1.2
6.6
7.4
5.8
6.2

52
6
7-6
8-3
-1.3
0.5
14 (8) Arkansas 1.9
1.2
7.1
6.5
5.2
5.3

12
28
10-3
10-2
1.2
0.5
15 (40) Michigan 0.7
1.2
6.8
6.4
6.1
5.2

33
38
7-6
10-2
-1.2
0.4
16 (7) Boise State 3.5! 1.1
7.5
6.4
4.0
5.3

46
51
12-1
10-1
1.3
0.4
17 (14) Virginia Tech 0.5
1.1
6.2
6.0
5.7
4.9

19
60
11-3
11-1
-0.3
0.3
18 (33) West Virginia 1.1
1.6
5.3
6.4
4.2
4.8

58
67
9-4
8-3
-1.0
0.3
19 (16) Florida State 1.1
1.7
6.0
5.9
4.9
4.2

16
69
10-4
8-4
-0.4
0.2
20 (73)
 Southern Miss 0.2
1.7
5.7
6.4
5.5
4.7

90
110
8-5
10-2
-3.3
0.2
21 (48) Texas 0.6
0.9
5.2
5.3
4.6
4.4

50
4
5-7
7-4
-1.7
0.1
22 (6) TCU 2.5
1.3
6.7
6.7
4.2
5.4

56
75
13-0
9-2
1.3
0.1
23 (24) Missouri 0.7
1.1
5.7
6.3
5.0
5.2

30
5
10-3
7-5
-0.6
0.0
24 (22) Texas A&M 0.8
1.2
5.6
6.1
4.8
4.9

22
2
9-4
6-6
-0.6
0.0
25 (28) Notre Dame 0.3
1.0
5.5
6.1
5.2
5.1

17
26
8-5
8-4
-0.9
-0.1
26 (60) Georgia Tech   0.0
1.3
5.7
6.8
5.7
5.5

60
66
6-7
8-4
-2.5
-0.2
27 (102) Utah State
-1.2
1.7
4.9
6.6
6.1
4.9

82
93
4-8
6-5
-4.9
-0.2
28 (52) Penn State 0.1
0.7
5.5
5.1
5.4
4.4

48
37
7-6
9-3
-1.9
-0.3
29 (30) North Carolina 0.8
1.2
5.9
6.3
5.1
5.1

24
52
8-5
7-5
-0.9
-0.3
30 (11) Nebraska 1.5
0.5
6.1
5.6
4.6
5.1

28
29
10-4
9-3
0.0
-0.4
31 (104)
 Arkansas State 
-0.2
1.2
5.7
5.8
5.9
4.6

105
121
4-8
9-2
-5.2
-0.4
32 (25)Florida0.5
0.9
5.2
5.5
4.7
4.6

18
21
8-5
6-6
-0.7
-0.5
33 (51) Tulsa 0.3
0.9
6.5
6.2
6.2
5.3

86
56
10-3
8-4
-1.8
-0.5
34 (55) Northern Illinois 1.7
1.2
6.9
6.8
5.2
5.6

104
106
11-3
9-3
-1.9
-0.5
35 (35) California 0.5
0.7
5.3
5.9
4.8
5.2

10
27
5-7
7-5
-1.0
-0.6
36 (58) Cincinnati 0.7
0.8
6.0
5.9
5.3
5.1

51
80
4-8
8-3
-2.0
-0.6
37 (61) SMU 1.3
1.1
6.3
6.1
5.0
5.0

80
77
7-7
7-5
-2.5
-0.7
38 (49) Clemson 0.2
0.2
5.1
5.8
4.9
5.6

25
44
6-7
9-3
-1.7
-0.8
39 (88) Ohio
0.2
1.1
5.5
6.2
5.3
5.1

114
125
8-5
9-3
-4.1
-0.8
40 (23) Iowa
1.3
0.6
6.2
5.8
4.9
5.2

42
47
8-5
7-5
-0.6
-0.9
41 (20) Mississippi State
0.5
0.5
5.8
5.3
5.3
4.8

23
22
9-4
6-6
-0.5
-0.9
42(53) South Florida 0.3
1.0
5.0
5.8
4.7
4.8

67
65
8-5
5-6
-1.9
-0.9
43 (31) Miami (Florida) 1.1 
0.7
5.9
6.2
4.8
5.5

21
45
7-6
6-6
-0.9
-1.0
44 (65) BYU -0.1
0.6
5.0
5.5
5.1
4.9

61
95
7-6
8-3
-2.8
-1.0
45 (66) Temple 0.8
1.0
5.5
5.9
4.7
4.9

102
119
8-4
8-4
-2.8
-1.0
46 (78) Vanderbilt -1.2
0.4
4.6
5.3
5.8
4.9

47
32
2-10
6-6
-3.7
-1.1
47 (47) Illinois 0.3
0.6
5.7
5.1
5.4
4.5

49
49
7-6
6-6
-1.7
-1.1
48 (75) Virginia -0.5
0.4
5.6
5.5
6.1
5.1

65
72
4-8
8-4
-3.4
-1.1
49 (18) San Diego State 2.0
0.5
6.9
5.9
4.9
5.4

79
83
9-4
7-4
-0.5
-1.1 
50 (32) Nevada 1.4
0.7
7.0
6.5
5.6
5.8

68
78
13-1
6-5
-1.0
-1.1
51 (64)
 Kansas State -0.6
-0.8
5.8
4.9
6.4
5.7

57
9
7-6
9-2
-2.8
-1.2
52 (82) Toledo 0.2
0.5
5.5
6.4
5.3
5.9

91
88
8-5
8-4
-3.8
-1.2
53 (41) Air Force 0.8
0.8
6.0
6.5
5.2
5.7

64
102
9-4
7-5
-1.3
-1.2
54 (68)
 UCLA -1.4
0.1
4.7
6.1
6.1
6.0

8
16
4-8
6-6
-3.0
-1.3
55 (36) Utah 0.8
0.1
6.1
5.0
5.3
4.9

40
40
10-3
7-5
-1.1
-1.3
56 (89) Louisiana Tech -0.7
0.3
5.3
5.2
6.0
4.9

78
81
5-7
8-4
-4.1
-1.3
57 (19) Arizona State
0.8
0.1
5.8
6.1
5.0
6.0

7
31
6-6
6-6
-0.5
-1.4
58 (39) Washington -0.1
-0.2
5.5
6.0
5.6
6.2

3
24
7-6
7-5
-1.2
-1.4
59 (54) Louisville 0.7
0.2
5.7
5.1
5.0
4.9

71
62
7-6
7-5
-1.9
-1.4
60 (26) UCF 1.0
1.0
5.8
6.0
4.8
5.0

95
103
11-3
5-7
-0.7
-1.4
61(5) Ohio State 2.2
0.0
6.5
5.1
4.3
5.1

27
30
12-1
6-6
1.4
-1.5
62 (94) Florida Int. FIU 
0.1
0.6
5.7
5.5
5.6
4.9

103
127
7-6
8-4
-4.3
-1.5
63 (1) Auburn 2.0
-0.5
7.4
5.2
5.4
5.7

4
11
14-0
7-5
1.7
-1.6
64 (34) Pittsburgh 1.0
0.0
5.7
4.9
4.7
4.9

41
43
8-5
5-6
-1.0
-1.6
65 (70)
 Iowa State -0.9
-0.7
4.6
5.0
5.5
5.7

35
3
5-7
6-5
-3.1
-1.7
66 (81) Wake Forest -1.0
-0.1
4.8
5.4
5.8
5.5

39
53
3-9
6-6
-3.8
-1.8
67 (97) 
West. Michigan
0.0
0.2
5.7
6.3
5.7
6.1

107
104
6-6
7-5
-4.4
-1.8
68 (113)
 Louis.-Lafayette
-0.9
0.2
5.0
5.6
5.9
5.4

109
123
3-9
8-4
-6.1
-1.8
69 (43) Tennessee 0.3
-0.4
5.7
5.0
5.4
5.4

32
13
6-7
5-7
-1.4
-1.9
70 (91)
Rutgers -1.2
-0.3
4.6
4.6
5.8
4.9

84
76
4-8
8-4
-4.2
-1.9
71 (72) Purdue -0.5
-0.2
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.5

62
58
4-8
6-6
-3.2
-2.0
72 (13) Arizona 1.1
-0.5
6.0
6.1
4.9
6.6

13
14
7-6
4-8
-0.2
-2.2
73 (67) Northwestern -0.5
-0.4
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.1

76
57
7-6
6-6
-2.9
-2.2
74 (63) Syracuse 0.6
-0.4
5.2
5.1
4.6
5.5

74
59
8-5
5-6
-2.7
-2.2
75 (44) Navy 0.5
-0.2
6.2
5.9
5.7
6.1

69
63
9-4
4-7
-1.5
-2.2
76 (37)
 Hawaii 2.4
0.4
7.6
5.9
5.2
5.5

81
115
10-4
5-7
-1.1
-2.2
77 (56) Texas Tech -0.1
-0.8
5.7
5.7
5.8
6.5

53
7
8-5
5-7
-2.0
-2.3
78 (46) N.C. State -0.1
-0.5
5.2
4.9
5.3
5.4

29
79
9-4
7-5
-1.7
-2.3
79 (92) Wyoming 
-0.8
-0.6
5.0
5.5
5.8
6.1

70
85
3-9
7-4
-4.2
-2.3
80 (45) Oregon State -0.5
-0.4
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.9

1
15
5-7
3-9
-1.7
-2.4
81 (80) Washington St. -1.8
-0.5
4.9
5.8
6.7
6.3

9
34
2-10
4-8
-3.8
-2.4
82 (95) Marshall 
-0.3
-0.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.8

93
54
5-7
6-6
-4.3
-2.4
83 (87) Miami (Ohio) -0.2
0.1
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.3

108
92
10-4
4-8
-4.1
-2.4
84 (98) East Carolina 
-0.8
-0.4
5.7
5.2
6.5
5.6

66
73
6-7
5-7
-4.5
-2.5
85 (118)  Bowling Green -1.8
-0.1
4.3
5.6
6.1
5.7

100
98
2-10
5-7
-6.9
-2.5
86 (119)
Eastern Michigan 
-2.3
-0.1
5.0
5.3
7.3
5.4

99
118
2-10
6-6
-7.4
-2.5
87 (71) Fresno State -0.2
-0.4
5.6
6.0
5.8
6.4

77
71
8-5
4-8
-3.2
-2.7
88 (107) Louis.-Monroe 
-0.9
-0.1
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.1

110
99
5-7
3-8
-5.7
-2.7
89 (59) Connecticut -0.3
-0.9
4.9
4.6
5.2
5.5

75
70
8-5
5-6
-2.4
-2.8
90 (106) San Jose State
-1.2
-0.7
5.2
5.4
6.4
6.1

73
74
1-12
5-7
-5.6
-2.8
91 (103) 
Central Michigan 
-0.1
0.0
5.4
5.9
5.5
5.9

101
96
3-9
3-9
-5.0
-2.8
92 (79)  Army -0.9
-0.5
4.9
5.6
5.8
6.1

98
84
7-6
3-8
-3.7
-2.9
93 (83) Minnesota -1.3
-1.0
5.3
5.0
6.6
6.0

45
18
3-9
3-9
-3.9
-3.0
94 (50) Boston College 0.4
-0.9
4.8
4.7
4.4
5.6

31
46
7-6
4-8
-1.8
-3.0
95 (93) UTEP 
-0.1
-0.7
5.6
5.6
5.7
6.3

117 
91
6-7
5-7
-4.2
-3.0
96 (38) Maryland 0.9 
-0.6
5.6
5.3
4.7
5.9

54
36
9-4 
2-10
-1.1
-3.0
97 (115) West. Kentucky
-1.2
-0.9
4.8
5.0
6.0
5.9

112
117
2-10
7-5
-6.6
-3.1
98 (116) New Mexico St. -2.5
-0.6
4.3
5.7
6.8
6.3

92
89
2-10
4-8
-6.6
-3.1
99 (57)  Kentucky 0.5
-1.4
6.1
5.6
5.5

59
41
6-7
5-7
-2.0
-3.2
100 (77) Kent State 0.5
-0.9
4.9
3.9
4.4
4.8

106
100
5-7
5-7
-3.5
-3.3
101 (112) 
Buffalo -0.7
-0.5
4.2
5.1
4.9
5.6

118
101
2-10
3-9
-6.0
-3.3
102 (101) Mid. Tennessee 0.2
-0.4
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.7

132
114
6-7
2-9
-4.8
-3.3
103 (90) Troy 0.1
-0.7
5.9
5.3
5.8
6.0

111
113
8-5
3-8
-4.1
-3.4
104 (69) Colorado -0.8
-1.3
5.1
5.3
5.9
6.6

36
17
5-7
3-10
-3.1
-3.5
105 (100) Colorado State 
-1.4
-0.9
5.1
5.3
6.5
6.2

72
97
3-9
3-8
-4.8
-3.5
106 (105) Rice -1.2
-1.6
5.2
4.9
6.4
6.5

94
42
4-8
4-8
-5.3
-3.6
107 (111) Ball State 
-1.0
-1.5
4.9
5.3
5.9
6.8

122
86
4-8
6-6
-6.0
-3.6
108 (84)  Duke -1.2
-1.5
5.2
5.1
6.4
6.6

37
50
3-9
3-9
-3.9
-3.8
109 (108)
North Texas
-0.3
-1.5
5.6
4.8
5.9
6.3

116
87
3-9
4-7
-5.7
-3.8
110 (62)  Mississippi -0.5
-1.8
5.8
4.4
6.3
6.2

44
12
4-8
2-10
-2.7
-3.9
111 (85) Idaho -0.4
-1.3
5.5
4.4
5.9
5.7

88
82
6-7
2-9
-4.0
-3.9
112 (109) 
Florida Atlantic 
-0.7
-1.1
4.9
4.2
5.6
5.3

113
94
4-8
1-10
-5.9
-4.0
113 (86) Indiana -1.2
-1.4
5.4
5.0
6.6
6.4

87
48
5-7
1-11
-4.0
-4.1
114 (76) UAB
0.0
-1.5

5.8
5.2
5.8
6.7


96
90
4-8
3-9

-3.4
-4.2
115 (96) Tulane
-1.0
-1.0
5.0
5.0
6.0
6.0

97
105
4-8
2-11
-4.3
-4.3
116 (99) 
Kansas 
-1.9
-2.5
4.3
4.7
6.2
7.2

63
1
3-9
2-10
-4.7
-4.5
117 (117)
New Mexico -2.4
-1.9
4.0
4.8
6.4
6.7

83
61
1-11
1-10
-6.6
-4.5
118 (110)
UNLV
-2.3
-2.1
4.4
4.4
6.7
6.5

55
68
2-11
2-9
-6.0
-4.6
119 (120) Akron 
-2.0
-1.9
4.3
4.2
6.3
6.1

120
107
1-11
1-11
-7.5
-5.2
120 (114)
Memphis
-1.8
-2.4
4.8
4.2
6.6
6.6

85
112
1-11
2-10
-6.5
-5.5
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