Sunday, August 19, 2012

2012 Preseason College Football Rankings by SportPundit

Our preseason NCAA Division I FBS college football rankings are traditionally one of our most popular postings online, so here we go - NO guarantees - this is just our opinion. CollegeFootballPoll.com has a comparison of other preseason rankings already issued by other sources.

The college football season starts with games on Thursday, August 30, 2012.

Note that four new schools join FBS in 2012: UMass - University of Massachusetts Amherst (MAC, head coach Charley Molnar), University of South Alabama (Sun Belt, head coach Joey Jones), Texas State University - San Marcos (WAC, head coach Dennis Franchione), UTSA - University of Texas - San Antonio (WAC, head coach Larry Coker).

Six top games take place in the first weekend -- a rarity this early in the season - and will set the tone for 2012 (the team rankings for those 6 games are taken from the USA Today Preseason Coaches' Poll):
  • the Big East leaning Boise State Broncos (ranked 22nd ) are at the Big Ten defending Legends Division champions Michigan State Spartans (ranked 13th) on August 31 - as Boise State has the fewest returning starters (only 6) of any top-ranked team while the Spartans return 14 starters, but only 4 on offense
  • the resurgent Michigan Wolverines (ranked 8th, last season winners 23-20 over Virginia Tech in the BCS Allstate Sugar Bowl) play the defending BCS champions, the Alabama Crimson Tide (ranked 2nd), on a neutral field at Arlington, Texas on September 1, to see if Brady Hoke can continue his magic for the snazzy Wolverines, who return 16 starters, as compared to 13 returning starters for the formidable Crimson Tide, but only 4 from last year's nation's best defense
  • SEC Auburn (18 returning starters, 9 on defense, ranked 25th) plays last year's ACC champion Clemson (14 returning starters, ranked 14th) in a match potentially starring a dominant defense against a dominant offense in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta (Sept. 1)
  • Southern Miss, 12 returning starters, perhaps a candidate for top 25 ranking with votes already in the USA Today poll, plays at the Nebraska Cornhuskers (16 returning starters, ranked 16th) against a Huskers' team that is facing two very strong opponents in its first three games who may originally have been scheduled as breathers, but not this year, as not only the Golden Eagles but also Gus Malzahn's Arkansas State Red Wolves are forces to be reckoned with. Southern Miss, 12-2 last season, has 18 straight winning seasons while Arkansas State went 10-2 last year without the gifted Malzahn as head coach, who has been recruiting very talented players since his arrival, which brings us to game No. 5 this weekend....
  • Arkansas State (10 returning starters, unranked now, but not to be under-estimated) is hosted by Oregon (13 returning starters, ranked 5th) in a game that is destined to be an offensive shoot-out as Malzahn will surely pull out all the stops to make his debut as head coach in the college ranks a successful one. Malzahn has beaten Oregon before as offensive coordinator at Auburn, so this should be an interesting game as the Red Wolves may prove to be no pushover for the Ducks, quite the contrary.
2012 Preseason College Football Rankings by SportPundit

The following 2012 preseason college football rankings at SportPundit are based primarily on last year's SportPundit final post-bowl rankings and ratings, plus some current adjustments for things like coaching changes, returning starters and significant graduation losses and/or departures of players for the NFL such as quarterbacks Andrew Luck of Stanford and Robert Griffin III of Baylor, whose departures have surely left Stanford and Baylor weaker, but how much weaker is anybody's guess.

A school like Oklahoma State lost not only a top-rate QB in Brandon Weeden but also the nation's top receiver in Justin Blackmon, losses that are hard to compensate, even though the Cowboys otherwise have 16 returning starters.

The rankings below contain information links about some but not all teams with n= news, b= blog (or similar), and c = coaching or conference change.

We continue to rank Alabama as the Number One team in the country on the strength of the absolute dominance of their stats in 2011, which had us rank Alabama #1 at season-end in our poll BEFORE their blowout win over LSU in the BCS championship game. We do not see how LSU can possibly emerge as the best team in the country in 2012 without an established quarterback.

The yards per play (YPP) stats, which we took last year from cfbstats.com, are significant, and in 2012 will continue to be our primary ranking criteria.

As a graduate of Nebraska and Stanford and with Michigan grads in the family, we subjectively rank the Huskers, the Cardinal and Wolverines higher than the stats might justify, but we were right on Stanford and Michigan last year. We worry about the Huskers after their bowl game loss to the Gamecocks, but tradition has a tradition of resurrecting storied programs. Maybe this year. Stanford will miss Luck, but the team will remain very strong. For Michigan, the sky is the limit once their defense has the same quality as the offense.

No changes in the rankings of teams after position 60 from their final rankings at the post-bowl end of the 2011 season have been made.

Sport
Pundit
YPPSYS
2012

Preseason
Team
Rankings


(2012 preseason rank in light blue - 2011 rank in black - 2010 rank in red)
The
Football
TEAM
that was
ranked &
rated
NAYPPA
2010 in red
2011
in black
(net
average
yards
per play
advant-
age)

YPP OFF
2010
2011
yards per play offense

YPP DEF
2010
2011
yards
per
play defense 


Schedule difficulty 
2010
2011

W-L
record

2010
2011

YPPSYS
Team
Rating yards
per play
advantage

minus
schedule
difficulty
(x .01)
2010

2011
minus .2 for

each loss


1 - 1 (4)
Alabama - n
2.4
3.2 !

7.0
6.5

4.6
3.3


14
15

10-3
12-1

1.5
2.9

2 - 36 (11) Nebraska - b 1.5
0.3

6.1
5.5

4.6
5.2


28
26

10-4
9-4

0.0
-0.8

3 - 17 (40) Michigan - n
0.7
1.0

6.8
6.2

6.1
5.2


33
40

7-6
11-2

-1.2
0.2

4 - 13 (15) Oklahoma - n
0.5
1.1

5.6
6.3

5.1
5.2


20

12-2
10-3

-0.4
0.4

5 - 12 (29) USC - n
0.1
1.1

6.0
6.5

5.9
5.4


5
20

8-5
10-2

-0.9
0.5

6 - 2 (12) LSU - n
0.4
1.6

5.3
5.7

4.9
4.1


15
7

11-2
13-1

0.0
1.5

7 - 15 (33) West Virginia - c
1.1
1.5

5.3
6.4

4.2
4.9


58
57

9-4
10-3

-1.0
0.3

8 - 60 (5) Ohio State - n b
2.2
0.0

6.5
5.1

4.3
5.1


27
30

12-1
6-7

1.4
-1.7

9 - 7 (21) South Carolina
 - b
0.6
1.4

6.0
5.6

5.4
4.2


11
32

9-5
11-2

-0.5
0.7

10 - 4 (2) Oregon - b
2.0
2.1

6.7
7.2

4.7
5.1


7
35

12-1
12-2

1.6
1.3

11 - 6 (10) Wisconsin - n
1.4
1.8

6.7
7.0

5.3
5.2


38
44

11-2
11-3

0.1
0.8

12 - 16 (27) Georgia  - b
0.9
1.2

6.1
5.6

5.2
4.4


26
23

6-7
10-4

-0.8
0.2

13 - 11 (17) Michigan State
 - b
0.9
1.5

6.2
5.8

5.3
4.3


43
38

11-2
11-3

-0.4
0.5

14 - 24 (48) Texas - n 0.6
0.8

5.2
5.4

4.6
4.6


50
5

5-7
8-5

-1.7
-0.3

15 - 18 (16) Florida State - b
1.1
1.7

6.0
5.9

4.9
4.2


16
68

10-4
9-4

-0.4
0.2

16 - 3 (9) Oklahoma State
 - b 
1.9
1.7

6.9
7.2

5.0
5.5


34
3

11-2
12-1

0.8
1.5

17 - 9 (3)Stanford - n
1.6
1.4

6.7
6.8

5.1
5.4


2
36

12-1
11-2

1.5
0.6

18 - 26 (14) Virginia Tech - n
0.5
0.9

6.2
5.8

5.7
4.9


19
59

11-3
11-3

-0.3
-0.3

19 - 19 (7) Boise State n b 3.5! 1.3

7.5
6.5

4.0
5.2


46
75

12-1
12-1

1.3
0.3

20 - 31 (25)Florida - c0.5
0.8

5.2
5.4

4.7
4.6


18
22

8-5
7-6

-0.7
-0.6

21 - 20 (6) TCU - c
2.5
1.3

6.7
6.5

4.2
5.2


56
86

13-0
11-2

1.3
0.0

22 - 22 (24) Missouri - c
0.7
1.1

5.7
6.3

5.0
5.2


30
13

10-3
8-5

-0.6
0.0

23 - 23 (22) Texas A&M - c
0.8
1.3

5.6
6.1

4.8
4.8


22
4

9-4
7-6

-0.6
0.0

24 - 8 (8) Arkansas - b 1.9
1.3

7.1
6.5

5.2
5.2


12
20

10-3
11-2

1.2
0.7

25 - 39 (104)
Arkansas State
- c
-0.2
1.0

5.7
5.7

5.9
4.7


105
124

4-8
10-3

-5.2
-0.8

26 - 25 (49) Clemson - b
0.2
0.3

5.1
5.9

4.9
5.6


25
43

6-7
10-4

-1.7
-0.9
-0.3*
 *adjusted 
for wins

27 - 26 (28) Notre Dame - b
0.3
0.9

5.5
5.9

5.2
5.0


17
25

8-5
8-5

-0.9
-0.4

28 - 52 (1) Auburn - n
2.0
-0.4

7.4
5.3

5.4
5.7


4
14

14-0
8-5

1.7
-1.5

29 - 28 (60) Georgia Tech - b
0.0
1.2

5.7
6.7

5.7
5.5


60
76

6-7
8-5

-2.5
-0.4

30 - 29 (61) SMU - b
1.3
1.2

6.3
6.1

5.0
4.9


80
70

7-7
8-5

-2.5
-0.5

31 - 42 (47) Illinois - c
0.3
0.7

5.7
5.1

5.4
4.4


49
53

7-6
7-6

-1.7
-1.0

32 - 30 (55) Northern Illinois - n
1.7
1.1

6.9
6.6

5.2
5.5


104
103

11-3
11-3

-1.9
-0.5

33 - 19 (73)
Southern Miss
 - c - n
0.2
1.6

5.7
6.2

5.5
4.6


90
94

8-5
12-2

-3.3
0.2

34 - 32 (30) North Carolina - c
0.8
1.1

5.9
6.3

5.1
5.2


24
51

8-5
7-6

-0.9
-0.6

35 - 56 (89) Louisiana Tech- n
-0.7
0.3

5.3
5.2

6.0
4.9


78
74

5-7
8-5

-4.1
-1.5

36 - 33 (58) Cincinnati - b
0.7
0.7

6.0
5.6

5.3
4.9


51
73

4-8
10-3

-2.0
-0.6

37 - 34 (51) Tulsa - n
0.3
0.8

6.5
6.1

6.2
5.3


86
45

10-3
8-5

-1.8
-0.7

38 - 35 (102) Utah State - n
-1.2
1.5

4.9
6.5

6.1
5.0


82
100

4-8
7-6

-4.9
-0.7

39 - 5 (74) Houston - c
0.6
2.5

6.4
7.6

5.8
5.1


89
97

5-7
13-1

-3.3
1.3

40 - 38 (20) Mississippi State - n
0.5
0.7

5.8
5.4

5.3
4.7


23
28

9-4
7-6

-0.5
-0.8

41 - 21 (64)
Kansas State - n -0.6
-0.8

5.8
4.9

6.4
5.7


57
8

7-6
10-3

-2.8
-1.5*
0.0*
 *adjusted 
for wins

42 - 40 (65) BYU - n
-0.1
0.6

5.0
5.5

5.1
4.9


61
90

7-6
10-3

-2.8
-0.9

43 - 41 (66) Temple - c
0.8
1.1

5.5
6.0

4.7
4.9


102
119

8-4
9-4

-2.8
-0.9

44 - 43 (35) California - n
0.5
0.5

5.3
5.7

4.8
5.2


10
29

5-7
7-6

-1.0
-1.0

45 - 44 (82) Toledo - c
0.2
0.6

5.5
6.4

5.3
5.8


91
81

8-5
9-4

-3.8
-1.0

46 - 45 (23) Iowa - n
1.3
0.5

6.2
5.6

4.9
5.1


42
39

8-5
7-6

-0.6
-1.1

47 - 46 (31) Miami (Florida)- n
1.1 
0.7

5.9
6.2

4.8
5.5


21
61

7-6
6-6

-0.9
-1.1

48 - 47 (53) South Florida
- n
0.3
0.9

5.0
5.7

4.7
4.8


67
62

8-5
5-7

-1.9
-1.1
49 - 48 (32) Nevada - c
1.4
0.9

7.0
6.4

5.6
5.5


68
88

13-1
7-6

-1.0
-1.2

50 - 49 (88) Ohio - n
0.2
0.8

5.5
6.1

5.3
5.3


114
118

8-5
10-4

-4.1
-1.2

51 - 50 (78) Vanderbilt - b
-1.2
0.4

4.6
5.2

5.8
4.8


47
27

2-10
6-7

-3.7
-1.3

52 - 51 (26) UCF - n
1.0
1.0

5.8
6.0

4.8
5.0


95
102

11-3
5-7

-0.7
-1.4

53 - 53 (75) Virginia - b
-0.5
0.2

5.6
5.5

6.1
5.3


65
71

4-8
8-5

-3.4
-1.5

54 - 54 (41) Air Force - b
0.8
0.7

6.0
6.4

5.2
5.7


64
104

9-4
7-6

-1.3
-1.5

55 - 55 (36) Utah - c
0.8
0.0

6.1
5.0

5.3
5.0


40
49

10-3
8-5

-1.1
-1.5

56 - 37 (52) Penn State - b
0.1
0.3

5.5
5.0

5.4
4.7


48
31

7-6
9-4

-1.9
-0.8

57 - 57 (18) San Diego State- n
2.0
0.2

6.9
5.9

4.9
5.7


79
95

9-4
8-5

-0.5
-1.7 

58 - 58 (19) Arizona State- n
0.8
0.0

5.8
6.1

5.0
6.1


7
34

6-6
6-7

-0.5
-1.7

59 - 59 (39) Washington - n
-0.1
-0.2

5.5
6.2

5.6
6.4


3
24

7-6
7-6

-1.2
-1.7

60 - 10 (42)
Baylor - n
0.8
1.2

6.6
7.6

5.8
6.4


52
10

7-6
10-3

-1.3
0.5

61 (54) Louisville 0.7
0.1

5.7
5.1

5.0
5.0


71
60

7-6
7-6

-1.9
-1.7

62 (91)
Rutgers -1.2
-0.2

4.6
4.7

5.8
4.9


84
69

4-8
9-4

-4.2
-1.7

63 (113)
Louis.-Lafayette
-0.9
0.3

5.0
5.7

5.9
5.4


109
122

3-9
9-4

-6.1
-1.7

64 (68)
UCLA -1.4
0.0

4.7
5.9

6.1
5.9


8
16

4-8
6-8

-3.0
-1.8

65 (94) Florida Int'l FIU 
0.1
0.5

5.7
5.4

5.6
4.9


103
127

7-6
8-5

-4.3
-1.8

66 (43) Tennessee 0.3
-0.4

5.7
5.0

5.4
5.4


32
12

6-7
5-7

-1.4
-1.9

67 (97) 
Western Michigan
0.0
0.2

5.7
6.3

5.7
6.1


107
99

6-6
7-6

-4.4
-2.0

68 (34) Pittsburgh 1.0
-0.2

5.7
4.8

4.7
5.0


41
48

8-5
6-7

-1.0
-2.1

69 (72) Purdue -0.5
-0.2

4.7
5.3

5.2
5.5


62
65

4-8
7-6

-3.2
-2.1

70 (70)
Iowa State -0.9
-0.8

4.6
4.9

5.5
5.7


35
2

5-7
6-7

-3.1
-2.2

71 (46) N.C. State - n
-0.1
-0.4

5.2
4.9

5.3
5.3


29
83

9-4
8-5

-1.7
-2.2

72 (56) Texas Tech -0.1
-0.8

5.7
5.7

5.8
6.5


53
11

8-5
5-7

-2.0
-2.3

73 (81) Wake Forest -1.0
-0.4

4.8
5.2

5.8
5.6


39
54

3-9
6-7

-3.8
-2.3

74 (13) Arizona 1.1
-0.5

6.0
6.1

4.9
6.6


13
18

7-6
4-8

-0.2
-2.3

75 (63) Syracuse 0.6
-0.3

5.2
5.1

4.6
5.4


74
55

8-5
5-7

-2.7
-2.3

76 (37)
Hawaii - c
2.4
0.2

7.6
5.8

5.2
5.6


81
114

10-4
6-7

-1.1
-2.3

77 (67) Northwestern -0.5
-0.5

5.4
5.6

5.9
6.1


76
46

7-6
6-7

-2.9
-2.4

78 (44) Navy 0.5
-0.3

6.2
5.8

5.7
6.1


69
67

9-4
5-7

-1.5
-2.4

79 (45) Oregon State -0.5
-0.4

5.2
5.5

5.7
5.9


1
19

5-7
3-9

-1.7
-2.4

80 (95) Marshall 
-0.3
-0.6

4.9
5.1

5.2
5.7


93
56

5-7
7-6

-4.3
-2.4

81 (118)  Bowling Green -1.8
-0.1

4.3
5.6

6.1
5.7


100
93

2-10
5-7

-6.9
-2.4

82 (87) Miami (Ohio) -0.2
0.1

5.2
5.4

5.4
5.3


108
85

10-4
4-8

-4.1
-2.4

83 (92) Wyoming 
-0.8
-0.6

5.0
5.5

5.8
6.1


70
92

3-9
8-5

-4.2
-2.5

84 (98) East Carolina 
-0.8
-0.4

5.7
5.2

6.5
5.6


66
72

6-7
5-7

-4.5
-2.5

85 (119)
Eastern Michigan 
-2.3
-0.1

5.0
5.3

7.3
5.4


99
117

2-10
6-6

-7.4
-2.5
86 (80) Washington St. -1.8
-0.5

4.9
5.8

6.7
6.3


9
47

2-10
4-8

-3.8
-2.6

87 (107) Louis.-Monroe 
-0.9
0.1

4.8
5.0

5.7
4.9


110
113

5-7
4-8

-5.7
-2.6
88 (103) 
Central Michigan 
-0.1
0.0

5.4
5.9

5.5
5.9


101
91

3-9
3-9

-5.0
-2.7

89 (59) Connecticut -0.3
-0.8

4.9
4.6

5.2
5.4


75
64

8-5
5-7

-2.4
-2.8

90 (79)  Army -0.9
-0.2

4.9
5.7

5.8
5.9


98
79

7-6
3-9

-3.7
-2.8

91 (106) San Jose State
-1.2
-0.7

5.2
5.4

6.4
6.1


73
80

1-12
5-7

-5.6
-2.9

92 (38) Maryland 0.9 
-0.5

5.6
5.3

4.7
5.8


54
42

9-4 
2-10

-1.1
-2.9

93 (71) Fresno State - c
-0.2
-0.4

5.6
6.0

5.8
6.4


77
77

8-5
4-9

-3.2
-3.0

94 (83) Minnesota -1.3
-1.0

5.3
5.0

6.6
6.0


45
17

3-9
3-9

-3.9
-3.0

95 (50) Boston College 0.4
-0.9

4.8
4.7

4.4
5.6


31
52

7-6
4-8

-1.8
-3.0

96 (93) UTEP 
-0.1
-0.7

5.6
5.6

5.7
6.3


117
87

6-7
5-7

-4.2
-3.0

97 (116) New Mexico St. -2.5
-0.4

4.3
5.8

6.8
6.2


92
89

2-10
4-9

-6.6
-3.1

98 (115) West. Kentucky
-1.2
-0.9

4.8
5.0

6.0
5.9


112
120

2-10
7-5

-6.6
-3.1

99 (57)  Kentucky 0.5
-1.4

6.1

5.6
5.5


59
41

6-7
5-7

-2.0
-3.2

100 (77) Kent State 0.5
-0.9

4.9
3.9

4.4
4.8


106
96

5-7
5-7

-3.5
-3.3

101 (112) 
Buffalo -0.7
-0.5

4.2
5.1

4.9
5.6


118
98

2-10
3-9

-6.0
-3.3

102 (69) Colorado -0.8
-1.3

5.1
5.3

5.9
6.6


36
21

5-7
3-10

-3.1
-3.5

103 (111) Ball State 
-1.0
-1.5

4.9
5.3

5.9
6.8


122
78

4-8
6-6

-6.0
-3.5

104 (108)
North Texas
-0.3
-1.1

5.6
5.0

5.9
6.1


116
105

3-9
5-7

-5.7
-3.6

105 (90) Troy 0.1
-0.7

5.9
5.3

5.8
6.0


111
109

8-5
3-9

-4.1
-3.6

106 (105) Rice -1.2
-1.6

5.2
4.9

6.4
6.5


94
37

4-8
4-8

-5.3
-3.6

107 (100) Colorado State 
-1.4
-0.9

5.1
5.3

6.5
6.2


72
106

3-9
3-9

-4.8
-3.8

108 (84)  Duke -1.2
-1.4

5.2
5.1

6.4
6.5


37
63

3-9
3-9

-3.9
-3.8

109 (101) Mid. Tennessee 0.2
-0.7

5.3
5.1

5.1
5.8


132
116

6-7
2-10

-4.8
-3.9

110 (62)  Mississippi -0.5
-1.9

5.8
4.3

6.3
6.2


44
9

4-8
2-10

-2.7
-4.0

111 (76) UAB
0.0
-1.5

5.8
5.2

5.8
6.7


96
84

4-8
3-9

-3.4
-4.1

112 (86) Indiana -1.2
-1.5

5.4
5.0

6.6
6.5


87
50

5-7
1-11

-4.0
-4.2

113 (85) Idaho -0.4
-1.4

5.5
4.5

5.9
5.9


88
82

6-7
2-10

-4.0
-4.2

114 (96) Tulane
-1.0
-1.0

5.0
5.0

6.0
6.0


97
110

4-8
2-11

-4.3
-4.3

115 (99) 
Kansas 
-1.9
-2.5

4.3
4.7

6.2
7.2


63
1

3-9
2-10

-4.7
-4.5

116 (109) 
Florida Atlantic 
-0.7
-1.3

4.9
4.0

5.6
5.3


113
101

4-8
1-11

-5.9
-4.5

117 (117)
New Mexico -2.4
-2.0

4.0
4.7

6.4
6.7


83
58

1-11
1-11

-6.6
-4.8
118 (110)
UNLV
-2.3
-2.2

4.4
4.3

6.7
6.5


55
66

2-11
2-10

-6.0
-4.9

119 (120) Akron 
-2.0
-1.9

4.3
4.2

6.3
6.1


120
107

1-11
1-11

-7.5
-5.2
120 (114)
Memphis
-1.8
-2.4

4.8
4.2

6.6
6.6


85
112

1-11
2-10

-6.5
-5.5

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