Monday, November 19, 2012

College Football Rankings 2012 FBS After Week 12 of Play by SportPundit Using YPPSYS, The Yards Per Play System

College Football Rankings 2012 FBS After Week 12 of Play by SportPundit Using YPPSYS, the Yards Per Play System

Teams below are color-coded by conference -- the selected color was random.
The color-coding of the rankings shows quickly that teams from the same conference tend to "clump" together, thus making the general strength (or weakness) of the conference more visible.
 
These ratings and rankings AFTER the TWELFTH week of play are based on the primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation of the schedule difficulty. Starting about mid-season, ours is not an ordinal ranking of schedule difficulty by 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. but is rather based on the average rank of the teams played. We also apply adjustments early in the season because not enough games have been played and such stats are skewed, leading to poor predictions. The inclusion of FCS teams in scheduling makes calculation of the strength of schedule more difficult and at best the strength of such FCS teams vis-a-vis FBS teams is an approximation. We use Sagarin USA Today and Massey Ratings for assistance in calculating the strength of FCS teams for purposes of calculating schedule difficulty, which is not an exact science by any means, but only an estimate.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA two years ago but lost a game.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant. The yards per play on offense has increased somewhat in the last couple of years after FBS teams started scheduling weaker FCS teams. The weaker an opponent the better the NAYPPA stat usually becomes, hence one has to adjust for schedule difficulty, which is not easy to do, especially given the law of diminishing returns in terms of yards-per-play advantage and weakness of the opposing team.

We get the yards-per-play stats that we use from the college or university online football websites that are linked below under "yards per play offense" or from cfbstats.com, a website with loads of college football statistics.


THE YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS AFTER WEEK 12 OF PLAY

2012
Sport
Pundit
Rank
AFTER
WEEK
TWELVE (12)
TEAM FBS
color-coded by conference
NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense

yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty as opponent average rank
plus or minus  subjective adjustments (this is our calculation based on various sources including our own rankings)


W-L
record
2012

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2 x schedule difficulty
minus .2 for every loss.
*=adjusted

1 
Alabama
3.0
6.9
3.9

55
10-1
+1.7
2 Notre Dame 1.5
6.0
4.5

55
11-0
+0.4
3
Oregon 1.7
6.7
5.0

55
10-1
+0.4

4 Georgia
2.0
7.0
5.0

70
10-1
+0.4
5 LSU
1.4
5.7
4.3

45
9-2
+0.3
6 Ohio State
1.1
6.1
5.0

40*
11-0
+0.3
7 Texas A&M 1.7
6.9
5.2

50

8-2

+0.3

8 Nebraska 1.8
6.5
4.7

55
9-2
+0.3
9Stanford
1.0
5.5
4.5

15*
9-2
+0.3
10 Florida 1.0
5.3
4.3

40
10-1
0.0
11
South Carolina
1.0

5.6
4.6

30*
9-2
0.0
12 Kansas State 1.2
6.5
5.3

50
10-1
0.0
13 Oklahoma
1.5
6.8
5.3

55*
8-2
0.0
14 Michigan
1.7
6.3
4.6

55
8-3
0.0
15 Oregon State 0.9
5.9
5.0

25
8-2
0.0
16
UCLA 0.6
6.2
5.6

10*
9-2
0.0
17 USC
1.7
6.9
5.2

50*
7-4
-0.1
18 Florida State
3.6
7.3
3.7

175*
10-1
-0.1

19 Texas 0.5
6.6
6.1

25*
8-2
-0.4
20 Michigan State 0.4
4.9
4.5

0*
5-6
-0.8
21 Wisconsin
1.1

5.7
4.6


55

7-4

-0.8

22 Arizona 0.4 6.4
6.0

20*
7-4

-0.8
23 Utah State
2.3
6.8
4.5


135*

9-2

-0.8

24 San Jose St. 1.3
6.3
5.0

90
9-2
-0.9

25 Boise State 1.5

5.8
4.3

100
9-2
-0.9
26 Oklahoma State 2.1
7.2
5.1

120*
7-3
-0.9
27
Baylor
1.0
7.0
6.0


50

5-5

-1.0

28 Texas Tech 1.2
6.4
5.2

70*
7-4
-1.0
29 Penn State
0.6
5.5
4.9

40*
7-4
-1.0
30 Northwestern 0.1
5.4
5.3

25*
8-3
-1.0
31 Washington
-0.3
5.1
5.4

0*
7-4
-1.1
32 Clemson 0.7
6.5
5.8

80
10-1
-1.1
33 BYU 0.7
5.2
4.5

40*
6-5
-1.1
34 Arizona State
1.0
5.7
4.7


55
6-5
-1.1
35 Mississippi State
0.6

6.0
5.4


55

8-3

-1.1

36 Vanderbilt
0.9
5.7
4.8

60
7-4
-1.1
37 Northern Illinois
2.1
6.8
4.7

150*
10-1
-1.1
38 Louisville 1.0
6.4
5.4

95
9-1
-1.1
39 
Rutgers 0.8
5.6
4.8

90
9-1
-1.2
40 Cincinnati
1.2
6.5
5.3

90
7-3
-1.2
41 TCU
0.5
5.6
5.1

50*
6-4
-1.3
42 West Virginia -0.2
6.4
6.6

5*
5-5
-1.3
43 North Carolina
1.3
6.5
5.2

90
7-4
-1.3
44 Fresno State
1.5
6.2
4.7

110
8-3
-1.3
45
Iowa State -0.5
5.2
5.7

0*
6-5
-1.5
46 San Diego State
0.5
5.8
5.3

70
8-3
-1.5
47 Syracuse 0.3
6.0
5.7

40*
6-5
-1.5
48
Arkansas State 1.0
6.5
5.5

95
8-3
-1.5

49 Louis.-Monroe 
0.2

6.0
5.8


50*

7-4

-1.6
50 Tulsa
0.7
5.6
4.9

95
9-2
-1.6
51 UCF
1.1
6.0
4.9

105
8-3
-1.6
52 Mississippi 0.3
5.8
5.5

35
5-6
-1.6
53 California
0.1
5.7
5.6

10*
3-8
-1.7
54 Missouri
-0.5
4.8
5.3

0*
5-6
-1.7
55 Arkansas 0.3
6.1
5.8

30*
4-7
-1.7
56 Minnesota 0.0
5.1
5.1

35*
6-5
-1.7
57 Pittsburgh 0.9
6.2
5.3

70
4-6
-1.7
58 Mid. Tennessee 0.0
6.0
6.0

60*
7-3
-1.8
59 Miami (Florida)
0.1
6.2
6.1

45*
6-5
-1.8
60 Virginia Tech
0.5
5.7
5.2

55*
5-6
-1.8
61 Georgia Tech
0.9
6.6
5.7

85
6-5
-1.8

62
Louis.-Lafayette
0.9
6.6
5.7

95*
6-4
-1.8
63 Auburn
-0.5
5.4
5.9

0*
3-7
-1.9
64 Kent State 0.1
6.0
5.9


90
10-1
-1.9
65 West. Kentucky
0.7
6.0
5.3

80*
6-5
-1.9
66
Utah
-0.6
4.8
5.4

0*
4-7
-2.0
67 Louisiana Tech
0.2
6.6
6.4

90
9-2
-2.0
68 Navy 0.1
5.9
5.8

65*
7-4
-2.0
69 N.C. State
-0.5
5.3
5.8

25*
6-5
-2.0
70 Tennessee 0.1
6.4
6.3

35
4-7
-2.0
71 Nevada
0.4
6.2
5.8

85
7-4
-2.1
72 Ball State 
-0.5
5.9
6.4

50*
8-3
-2.1
73 Toledo
-0.4
6.1
6.5

65*
8-3
-2.3
74 Indiana -0.3
5.7
6.0

30*
4-7
-2.3
75 Purdue -0.3
5.3
5.6

40*
5-6
-2.3
76 Air Force
0.4 6.0
5.6

85
6-5
-2.3
77  Bowling Green 0.8
5.5
4.7

115*
7-4
-2.3
78 Ohio
0.4
5.8
5.4

105*

8-3

-2.3

79 Iowa
-0.9

4.8
5.7

5*
4-7
-2.4
80 Virginia
0.1
5.4
5.3

55*
4-7
-2.4
81 Kentucky -0.6
4.8
5.4

0*
2-9
-2.4
82 Marshall 
0.2
5.9
5.7

70
5-6
-2.4
83 Temple
-1.1
5.1
6.3

5*
4-6
-2.4

84 South Florida -0.3
5.6
5.7

35*
3-7
-2.4
85 Connecticut 0.3
4.8
4.5

75
4-6
-2.4
86 East Carolina -0.2
5.5
5.7

75*
7-4
-2.5
87 Maryland -0.5
4.3
4.8

50
4-7
-2.9
88 Duke -1.0
5.2
6.2

45*
6-5
-2.9
89 Troy -0.1
6.3
6.4

80
5-6
-2.9
90 
Buffalo 0.1
5.4
5.3

80
4-7
-2.9
91  
Cent. Michigan 
0.1
6.3
6.2

75*
5-6
-3.0
92
East. Michigan 
-1.3
5.4
6.7

0*
2-9
-3.0
93  
West. Michigan
0.2
5.8
5.6

80

4-8
-3.0
94 Washington St. -0.9
4.9
5.8

15*
2-9
-3.0
95 Houston
0.0
5.7
5.7

80*
4-7
-3.0
96 Rice -1.0
5.4
6.4

45*
5-6
-3.1
97
North Texas -0.5
5.6
6.1

60*
4-7
-3.1
98 SMU
-0.2
5.2
5.4

85
5-6
-3.1
99 Illinois
-1.4
4.4
5.8

0*
2-9
-3.2
100 Wyoming
-0.6
5.5
6.1

60*
4-7
-3.2
101
Texas State
-0.8
5.7
6.5

70
3-7
-3.4
102 Wake Forest -1.3
4.4
5.7

50*
5-6
-3.5
103 Boston College -0.5
5.2
5.7

60
2-9
-3.5
104 Miami (Ohio) -0.9
5.6
6.5

60*
4-7
-3.5
105
New Mexico -1.2
5.7
6.9

35*
4-8
-3.5
106 Colorado State
-0.2
5.3
5.5

85
3-8
-3.5
107
UNLV
-0.8
5.4
6.2

35*
2-10
-3.5
108 Florida Int'l FIU 
-0.4
5.4
5.8

75
3-8
-3.5
109 
Kansas
-1.6
5.0
6.6

0*
1-10
-3.6
110
Memphis
-0.6
4.8
5.4

80
3-8
-3.8
111
UTSA
-0.5
5.6
6.1

130
7-4
-3.9
112 UTEP 
-1.0
5.2
6.2

65
3-8
-3.9
113 Tulane
-1.6
4.7
6.3

30*
2-9
-4.0
114 UAB
-0.5

5.5
6.0


95

3-8

-4.0

115
South Alabama
-0.7
4.7
5.4

75
2-9
-4.0
116 Army -1.2
5.7
6.9

70*
2-9
-4.4
117 
Florida Atlantic 
-1.3
4.8
6.1

75
3-8
-4.4
118 Colorado -2.9
4.3
7.2

0*
1-10
-4.6
119
Massachusetts
-2.6
3.9
6.5

0*
1-10
-4.6
120 Akron 
-0.5
5.5
6.0

105
1-10
-4.6
121
Southern Miss -1.1
4.9
6.0

70
0-11
-4.7
122
Hawaii
-1.8
4.1
5.9

60
1-9
-4.8
123 Idaho -1.8
4.9
6.7

50*
1-10
-4.8
124 New Mexico St. -1.5 5.1
6.6

85

1-9

-5.0






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