Sunday, September 30, 2012

College Football Prediction RESULTS Week 5 2012 by SportPundit and the Yards Per Play System YPPSYS

Below are our prediction RESULTS for Week 5 of FBS college football play in the 2012 regular season. 

[Last week our system-based predictions were better than our subjective choices. This week we tested to see how our system choices stack up against the prediction average at The College Football Prediction Tracker, which quantifies dozens of computer-based systems. Although we beat "the line" this week, the average predictions of the computer-based systems beat us. However, we may get better as the weeks progress, as our stats more accurately reflect team strengths and weaknesses.]

IN WEEK FIVE
YPPSYS system calls: We were 43-11 in calling the winner and 26-24-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We were 23-28 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

FOR THE SEASON

After the fifth week of play,
we are now 234-67 in calling the winner, and

111-117-5 against the spread ("the line").

__________

In making the predictions we use the YPPSYS yards per play system in which 1 rating point on our 2012 College Football Rankings FBS After Week 4 of Play = ca. 7 scoreboard points (just a rough estimate we use) and a home field advantage is worth 3 points. We estimate the score by using the sum of yards per play stats on both teams with a sum of ca. 21.6 (5.4+5.4+5.4+5.4) for both offense and defense (both teams added together) as the average. This corresponds to a ca. average winning score of about 37-16 (we use an odd score for easier calculations, although Massey Ratings last year had 36+ to 16+). Higher total ypp stat sums lead to higher score predictions and lower total ypp stat sums usually lead to lower score predictions.

Unless specifically linked to later odds added at e.g. the College Football Prediction Tracker, the lines used this week were taken from the Rivals Yahoo Sports NCAAF Live Odds Pointspreads as powered by OddsShark.com on September 24, 2012 6:15 a.m. EDT. These are "moving lines" that can change at any time, but we do not adjust our predictions for that, but rather take the line as of a given date and time as given.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

The visiting team is listed first, then the home team
e.g. Team A (visitor) v. Team B (home): B is favored by X points



Thursday, September 27, 2012

Stanford v. Washington: Cardinal favored by 7 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Stanford.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") had an average spread prediction of -12.17 points.

Result: We are beginning to think that it could be a mistake not to go with the underdog in these pre-weekend games that seem to be guided by what we call the "limelight effect", whereby the underdogs often rise to the occasion and play inspired football because they have little or no competition from other TV broadcast games. In this game you have to hand it the Huskies defense that held Stanford to no offensive TDs in coming from a 13-3 deficit to win 17-13. "Out of Luck" for the Cardinal, who have to learn to be more flexible on offense when playing against 8 or 9 in the box,.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 0-1 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 1-0 against the average CFPT spread (i.e. the average spread act CFPT was -12.17 points and we called -10 points, so we beat that average CFPT spread.


Friday, September 28, 2012

Hawaii v. Brigham Young: BYU favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 36-13 for the Cougars.  BYU tends to be stronger on defense, so we expect a lower-scoring affair here than a larger prediction spread would justify.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -21.17 points.

Result: BYU gained 540 yards, 396 of that rushing, and blanked the Warriors 47-0, who gained only 149 yards and turned the ball over 3 times, as Norm Chow, head coach at Hawaii, who coached in various capacities at BYU for a total of 27 years, had a tough "homecoming".
YPPSYS system calls: We are 1-1 in calling the winner and 0-2 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 2-0 against the average CFPT spread.


Saturday, September 29, 2012

Stony Brook v. Army: No Line. Beyond the Bets favors Army by 23 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Stony Brook. The Seawolves lost at Syracuse 28-17 and we ranked Army 26 points worse than the Orange. We rated Army's opponents at an average of 80 and the opponents of Stony Brook perhaps at an average of ca. 250, against whom Stony Brook averaged 7.7 ypp on offense and 4.5 ypp on defense, for a yards per play advantage of 3.2, whereas Army had a negative ypp advantage stat of -2.8, so that the total difference was 6.0, that has to be adjusted by the estimated schedule difficulty difference, which would result in an advantage of 15 scoreboard points for Stony Brook. We set the prediction at 17 points minus the home field advantage of 3 made 14.
Result
: Stony Brook beat Army 23-3. This result shows that there is something useful in our yards per play system, for who else expected this result, as the Seawolves outgained the Black Knights 424 to 330 yards, with Stony Brook's Miguel Mysonet rushing 32 times for 220 yards and 2 TDs.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 2-1 in calling the winner and 0-2 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 2-0 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Buffalo v. Connecticut: Huskies favored by 18 points.
Our call: 28-17 for UConn.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 17.81 points.
Result: UConn beat the Bulls 24-17, although both teams gained an identical 362 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 3-1 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 3-0 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.


Missouri v. UCF: Knights favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for the Tigers.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -1.82 points.
Result: The Tigers beat Central Florida 21-16 as Missouri's James Franklin threw for 257 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception while Blake Bortles gained 267 yards and 2 TDs through the air for UCF.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 4-1 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 3-1 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Indiana v. Northwestern: Wildcats favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-20 for Northwestern.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 15.54 points.
Result: The Wildcats beat the Hoosiers 44-29, putting up 693 yards total offense, as Indiana gained 423 yards but lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. Trevor Siemian threw for 308 yards for Northwestern while Kain Colter ran 13 times for 148 yards and 4 TDs, also catching 9 passes for 131 yards, with Venric Mark adding 141 yards and 1 TD on 29 carries.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 5-1 in calling the winner and 2-3 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 3-2 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Minnesota v. Iowa: Hawkeyes favored by 7 points.
Our call: 26-24 for the Golden Gophers.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 2.84 points.
Result:The Hawkeyes proved strong at home against the Gophers who lost their first game of the season 31-13 after being behind 24-0 at the half. Mark Weisman of Iowa rushed 21 times for 177 yards and 1 TD.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 5-2 in calling the winner and 2-4 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 3-3 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Middle Tennessee State v. Georgia Tech: Yellow Jackets favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 41-20 for Georgia Tech.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 22.30 points.
Result: Are you kidding me? We checked this score at several sources to make sure it was correct. The Yellow Jackets lost the turnover battle 4-2 and were outgained 264 to 238 yards in losing 49-28 in Atlanta to the Sun Belt Blue Raiders, as Middle Tennessee's Logan Kilgore passed for 246 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception while Benny Cunningham rushed 27 times for 218 yards and FIVE touchdowns. Recall that the Blue Raiders lost to FCS McNeese State 27-21 to open their season.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 5-3 in calling the winner and 3-4 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 4-3 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

N.C. State v. Miami of Florida: Hurricanes favored by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Miami of Florida.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 4.65 points.
Result:The Hurricanes beat the Wolfpack 44-37 in a hard-fought game that went down to the wire, as NC State tied the game 37-37 with 2 minutes to play but Miami scored with 30 seconds on the clock on a 62-yard pass from Stephen Morris to Phillip Dorsett to win 44-37. Morris completed 26 of 50 passes for 566 yards and FIVE TDs, with 1 interception. Mike Glennon was 24 of 42 for 441 yards, FOUR TDs, and 2 interceptions for North Carolina State in an offensive donnybrook in which the teams combined for 1326 total yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 6-3 in calling the winner and 4-4 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 4-4 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Baylor v. West Virginia: Mountaineers favored by 12.5 points.
Our call: 47-37 for West Virginia.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -6.31 points.
Result: An even more offensive duel than the Miami-NCState game ensued here as the Mountaineers won their inaugural Big 12 game 70-63 against the Bears, as West Virginia outgained Baylor 808 to 698 yards. Geno Smith of the Mountaineers completed EIGHT touchdown passes on 45 of 51 completions for 656 yards, FIVE of those TD pases to Stedman Bailey, who caugh 13 for 303 yards. Nick Florence of the Bears was 30 of 48 passes for 582 yards, FIVE TDs and 1 interception, two of those TDs to Terrance Williams, who caught 17 passes for 314 yards and 2 TDs.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 7-3 in calling the winner and 5-4 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 5-4 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Ball State v. Kent State: Cardinals favored by 2 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Ball State.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -2.87 points.
Result:The Golden Flashes did not trail in the game until 9 minutes into the 4th quarter when they fell behind 43-42, but a 25-yard field goal with 9 seconds left in the game was the winner 45-43. Ball State outgained Kent 564 to 461 yards, as Keith Wenning threw for 445 yards and FIVE TDs on 32 of 43 completions, 14 of those to Willie Snead for 216 yards and 2 TDs. Spencer Keith threw for 295 yards and 3 TDs for Kent State. It is still not clear to us why Ball State lost this game, but a weak defense could be it.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 7-4 in calling the winner and 5-5 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 5-5 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Penn State v. Illinois: Fighting Illini favored by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-21 for the Nittany Lions.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -1.61 points.
Result:The Nittany Lions took advantage of 3 Illini turnovers to win 35-7.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 8-4 in calling the winner and 6-5 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 6-5 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Duke v. Wake Forest: Demon Deacons favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for the Blue Devils. 
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 1.86 points.
Result: Duke beat Wake Forest 34-27 as the Demon Deacons lost the turnover battle 3-1 in an otherwise fairly even game.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 9-4 in calling the winner and 7-5 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 7-5 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Arkansas v. Texas A&M: Aggies favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for the Aggies.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 15.17 points.
Result: The woes in Arkansas continue as the Aggies rolled over the Razorbacks 58-10. For A&M Johnny Manziel completed 29 of 38 passes for 454 yards and 3 TDs and rushed 14 times for 104 yards and 1 TD.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 10-4 in calling the winner and 7-6 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 7-6 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Miami of Ohio v. Akron: RedHawks favored by 6 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Zips.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -4.51 points.
Result:The RedHawks beat the Zips 56-49, coming back from a 49-48 deficit with a minute to play. Miami of Ohio outgained Akron 710 to 631 yards, as Zac Dysert completed 34 of 49 passes for 518 yards and SIX TDs. Dalton Williams was 32 of 45 for 448 yards and 4 TDs for Akron.

YPPSYS system calls: We are 10-5 in calling the winner and 7-7 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 7-7 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Nevada v. Texas State: Wolf Pack favored by 22 points.
Our call: 34-28 for the Wolf Pack.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -15.81 points.
Result: The Wolf Pack beat the Bobcats 34-21 as Cody Fajardo threw for 285 yards and 3 TDs.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 11-5 in calling the winner and 8-7 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 8-7 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Colorado State v. Air Force: Falcons favored by 15 points.
Our call: 30-24 for the Air Force.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 9.80 points.
Result:The Falcons beat the Rams 42-21 as Air Force led 35-14 at the half.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 12-5 in calling the winner and 8-8 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 8-8 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Tulsa v. UAB: Golden Hurricane favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Tulsa.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -16.66 points.
Result: The Golden Hurricane beat the Blazers 49-42 as Alex Singleton rushed for 3 TDs for Tulsa and Darrin Reaves ran for 3 TDs for UAB.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 13-5 in calling the winner and 9-8 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 9-8 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Clemson v. Boston College: Tigers favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Tigers.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -8.61 points.
Result:The Tigers overcame a 21-17 deficit to beat the Eagles 45-31, as Clemson outgained Boston College 576 to 420 yards. Tajh Boyd threw for 367 yards and 3 TDs for Clemson while Chase Rettig passed for 341 yards and 3 TDs. Andre Ellington rushed for 132 yards and 1 TD for the Tigers.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 14-5 in calling the winner and 9-9 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 9-9 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati: Hokies favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Virginia Tech.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 0.81 points.
Result: The Bearcats scored on a 39-yard pass from Munchie Legaux to Damon Julian to upset the Hokies 27-24 and raise their record to 3-0, while Virginia Tech dropped to 2-2. Legaux threw for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 14-6 in calling the winner and 10-9 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 9-10 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Louisiana Tech v. Virginia: Louisiana Tech favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for the Bulldogs.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -7.75 points.
Result:The Bulldogs built up a 44-24 lead early in the fourth quarter and then held on for 44-38 win. Virginia outgained Louisiana Tach by a whopping 625 to 385 yards but turned the ball over three times. Three field goals by Matt Nelson of the undefeated Bulldogs were the difference in beating the Cavaliers who dropped to 2-3.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 15-6 in calling the winner and 10-10 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 10-10 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Florida State v. South Florida: Seminoles favored by 16 points.
Our call: 35-21 for the Seminoles.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -15.41 points.
Result: The Seminoles beat the Bulls 30-17 as Florida State outgained South Florida 425 to 268 and won the turnover battle 3 to 0. It was a win for the defense as offense averaged 6.4 yards per play to 4.1 ypp for the Bulls.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 16-6 in calling the winner and 11-10 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 11-10 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Tennessee v. Georgia: Bulldogs favored by 14 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Georgia.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 16.73 points.
Result: In an offensive battle, the Bulldogs downed the Volunteers 51-44, in a result showing that good quality football is slowly returning to Tennessee, putting up lots of points on a good Georgia defense.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 17-6 in calling the winner and 11-11 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 11-11 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Houston v. Rice: Cougars favored by 4.5 points.
Our call:  31-30 for Rice.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -1.37 points.

Result: The Cougars came out of their lethargy to beat Rice 35-14 for their first win of the season, as David Piland passed for 361 yards and 2 TDs, while Charles Sims ran for 158 yards and 3 TDs on 24 carries.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 17-7 in calling the winner and 11-12 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 11-12 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

San Jose State v. Navy: Spartans favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 37-24 for San Jose State.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -8.90 points.
Result:The Spartans blanked Navy 12-0 on four field goals by Austin Lopez in a largely defensive struggle in which San Jose State outgained Navy 388 to 144 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 18-7 in calling the winner and 12-12 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 12-12 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

LA Monroe v. Tulane: Warhawks favored by 19.5 points.
Our call:  34-20 for Louisiana Monroe.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -17.02 points.
Result: Monroe showed that its performance against SEC and Big 12 teams was no fluke, as the Warhawks beat the Green Wave 63-10. Kolton Browning threw for 253 yards and 3 TDs and DeVontae McNeal ran for 114 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 19-7 in calling the winner and 12-13 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 12-13 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Idaho v. North Carolina: Tar Heels favored by 24 points.
Our call: 38-17 for the Tar Heels.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 24.59 points.
Result: The Tar Heels exploded for a 45-0 lead at halftime and won 66-0 in setting a Tar Heel scoring record against the hapless Vandals who dropped to 0-5. Idaho turned the ball over 5 times as North Carolina outgained them 575 to 189 yards. Bryn Renner threw for 231 yards and 3 TDs in the first half and Quinshad Davis added two touchdowns rushing.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 20-7 in calling the winner and 12-14 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 12-14 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Ohio v. Massachusetts: Bobcats favored by 24 points.
Our call: 37-14 for Ohio.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -26.00 points.
Result: The Bobcats continued a tradition of struggling with allegedly overmatched opponents and wre lucky to escape with a 37-34 win to stay undefeated at 5-0. Beau Blankenship of Ohio rushed 43 times for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tyler Tettleton passed for 2 TDs for Ohio while Mike Wegzyn had 4 touchdown tosses for the Minutemen.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 21-7 in calling the winner and 13-14 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 13-14 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Troy v. South Alabama: Trojans favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Troy.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -9.75 points.
Result: The Trojans outgained the Jaguars 495 to 252 in winning 31-10 in a game marked by 9 turnovers.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 22-7 in calling the winner and 13-15 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 13-15 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Ohio State v. Michigan State: Spartans favored by 2.5 points.
Our call17-16 for Ohio State.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 2.00 points.
Result:The Buckeyes won their first Big 10 game under Urban Meyer as Ohio State squeaked by the Spartans 17-16. Yes, we called this game right on the money, picking the actual score. The difference in the game was Buckeye QB Braxton Miller who passed for 179 yards and 1 touchdown and ran for 136 yards. Dan Conroy kicked 3 field goals for Ohio State (35, 50 and 48 yards), with the last field goal the winner in the 4th quarter with 8 minutes to play.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 23-7 in calling the winner and 14-15 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 14-15 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Marshall v. Purdue: Boilermakers favored by 15 points.
Our call: 41-20 for Purdue. Our stats suggest that the Boilermakers are quite strong this year, with good offense and good defense.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 16.13 points.
Result: The Boilermakers got complacent in the second half after leading 42-14 at halftime and incredibly let Marshall get back in the game, coming out on top only 51-41 when the final whistle blew. A stunning statistic is that the Thundering Herd outgained Purdue 534 to 443 yards, as Rakeem Cato completed 45 of 68 passes for 439 yards and FIVE TDs, with 19 catches for 200 yards by Tommy Shuler and 4 catches for 42 yards and 3 TDs by Gator hoskins. But Cato also threw 3 costly interceptions. For Purdue, Caleb TerBush threw for 294 yards and four TDs with one pick, 3 of those TDs to Gary Bush.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 24-7 in calling the winner and 14-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 14-16 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois: Huskies favored by 10 points.
Our call: 36-21 for Northern Illinois.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 12.02 points.
Result:In preseason we picked Northern Illinois as the strongest team in the MAC, and they surely are, as they crushed the Chippewas 55-24, , previous week's winners over Iowa of the Big Ten, to whom Northern Illinois lost in their opener 18-17, outgaining Central Michigan 622 to 462 yards, as Leighton Settle ran for 152 yards and 3 TDs and Jordan Lynch for 144 yards and 1 TD.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 25-7 in calling the winner and 15-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 15-16 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 1-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Rhode Island v. Bowling Green: Beyond the Bets favors the Falcons over the Rams by 27 points.
Our call: 38-7 for Bowling Green.
Result
:The Falcons put points on the board again after their shutout last week, beating the Rams 48-8.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 26-7 in calling the winner and 15-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 15-16 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Arizona State v. California: Bears favored by 2 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Arizona State.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -7.50 points.
Result: The Sun Devils won 27-17 as Taylor Kelly threw for 292 yards and 3 TDs. Isi Sofele of the Bears ran for 105 yards and 1 TD.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 27-7 in calling the winner and 16-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 15-17 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

North Texas v. Florida Atlantic: Mean Green favored by 4 points.
Our call: 31-21 for North Texas.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -6.04 points.
Result: We wrote in analyzing this game previously that Carl Pelini in his first year as head coach is surely making improvements at Florida Atlantic, but the Owls still have a long way to go, and so does North Texas, although Dan McCarney, now in his second year as Mean Green head coach, should already be "a bit ahead". In an even game in which the Owls lost the turnover battle 3 to 1, the Mean Green emerged as victors 20-14, as both teams put up respectable stats and showed they are improving. Zach Olen's two field goals were the difference, as Brelan Chancellor had 6 catches for 135 yards and 1 TD for North Texas and Derek Thompson passed for 251 yards and 2 TDs. Graham Wilibert and Damian Fortner scored for Florida Atlantic.

YPPSYS system calls: We are 28-7 in calling the winner and 17-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 15-18 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Boise State v. New Mexico: Broncos favored by 27 points.
Our call: 37-16 for the Broncos.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -22.88 points.
Result: What a tremendous job is being done at New Mexico by first-year head coach Bob Davie. The Boise State Broncos led New Mexico 25-0 at halftime and then underestimated their opponents as the Lobos came roaring back to come within 32-29 with 8 minutes to play, an advantage that Boise State was able to defend, but only with difficulty until the final whistle.  The AP recap of the game quotes Boise State coach Chris Petersen as a lesson for all coaches: "I've been preaching this forever. You never let a team off the hook. I will give all credit to New Mexico; they took advantage and made plays. It was hard and we fumbled and they capitalized. It can change fast and I hope this team learns that." For the Broncos, Joe Southwick threw for 311 yards and 3 TDs as Boise State outgained the Lobos 514 to 374 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 29-7 in calling the winner and 18-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 16-18 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

UCLA v. Colorado: Bruins favored by 21 points.
Our call: 45-14 for the Bruins.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -19.27 points.
Result:UCLA put together two 21-7 halves to beat the Buffaloes 42-14, as Brett Hundley threw for 281 yards and 2 TDs and rushed for two touchdowns as well, while Johnathan Franklin rushed for 111 yards. The Buffs Tyler McCulloch led all receivers with 7 catches for 69 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 30-7 in calling the winner and 19-16 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 17-18 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Toledo v. Western Michigan: Broncos favored by 3 points.
Our call: 34-30 for the Broncos.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 0.55 points.
Result:The Rockets jumped out to a 20-0 early in the second quarter and beat the Broncos 37-17, as Toledo outgained Western Michigan 521 to 405 yards and won the turnover battle 4 to 0.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 30-8 in calling the winner and 19-17 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 17-19 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

South Carolina v. Kentucky: Gamecocks favored by 21 points.
Our call:  31-21 for the Gamecocks.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -19.50 points.
Result: Kentucky led 17-7 at halftime but top coaching is in part all about making the right adjustments at the intermission, which the Gamecocks did and the Wildcats did not, as South Carolina put up 31 unanswered second half points to win 38-17. Marcus Lattimore rushed for 120 yards and 2 TDs for the gamecocks in a surprisingly defensive contest in which South Carolina outgained Kentucky 348 to 243 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 31-8 in calling the winner and 19-17-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 17-20 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 2-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Towson v. LSU: No line. Beyond the Bets favors the Tigers by 48 points.
Our call:  47-7 for LSU.
Result
: LSU was unimpressive in a 38-22 over the FCS Towson Tigers, as Zach Mettenberger threw for 238 yards and 2 TDs
YPPSYS system calls: We are 32-8 in calling the winner and 19-17-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 17-20 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

TCU v. Southern Methodist (SMU): Horned Frogs favored by 18 points.
Our call: 34-13 for TCU.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -17.0 points.
Result: Southern Methodist, which had been blown out in games against Baylor and Texas A&M, kept amazingly close to the Horned Frogs in losing only 24-16, despite 6 turnovers, as TCU could manage only 156 total net yards versus 220 for the Mustangs. With an offense that weak, TCU is in for some tough games against high-powered Big 12 offenses later in the season.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 33-8 in calling the winner and 19-18-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 17-21 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

UTEP v. East Carolina: Pirates favored by 4 points.
Our call: 27-26 for UTEP.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 5.68 points.
Result: The Pirates beat the Miners 28-18, outgaining them 475 to 302 yards in a game with 8 turnovers.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 33-9 in calling the winner and 19-19-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 17-22 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Western Kentucky v. Arkansas State: Red Wolves favored by 1 point.
Our call: 31-27 for the Hilltoppers.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -2.90 points.
Result: Western Kentucky trailed Arkansas State 13-0 at halftime but came back to win the game 26-13, as Antonio Andrews rushed for 215 yards and 1 TD.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 34-9 in calling the winner and 20-19-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 18-22 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Florida International (FIU) v. LA Lafayette: Cajuns favored by 6 points.
Our call: 28-27 for the Ragin' Cajuns. The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 8.41 points.
Result:The Ragin' Cajuns won 48-20 as Terrance Broadway and Blaine Gautier combined for 314 yards passing and 2 TDs, outgaining FIU 501 to 259 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 35-9 in calling the winner and 20-20-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 18-23 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Texas v. Oklahoma State: Longhorns favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Texas.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 0.18 points.
Result: The Longhorns beat the Cowboys 41-36 as David Ash of Texas completed 30 of 37 passes for 304 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception. For Oklahoma State J.W. Walsh threw for 301 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick. The Cowboys Joseph Randle led all rushers with 199 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 36-9 in calling the winner and 21-20-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 19-23 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Louisville v. Southern Miss: Cardinals favored by 10.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Louisville.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -11.68 points.
Result: Louisville trailed 10-6, 17-12, and 15-17 at the quarter marks but emerged on top 21-17 with a TD in the fourth quarter in a defensive battle in which the Cardinals outgained the Golden Eagles 269 to 249 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 37-9 in calling the winner and 21-21-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 19-24 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Texas Tech v. Iowa State: Red Raiders favored by 2.5 points.
Our call:  24-23 for Iowa State.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -0.13 points.
Result:The Red Raiders outgained the Cyclones 395 to 189 yards in winning 24-13 and stayed undefeated at 4-0 while Iowa State dropped to 3-1. Seth Doege completed 30 of 46 passes for 331 yards, 3 TDs and 2 picks, 9 of those passes for 122 yards and 1 TD to Eric Ward. With that combination of offense and defense, Texas Tech will be a tough opponent for any team this year.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 37-10 in calling the winner and 21-22-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 19-25 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Wisconsin v. Nebraska: Huskers favored by 13 points.

Our call: 31-21 for Nebraska.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 5.86 points.
Result: I am a Nebraska alum who went a high school with red and black colors, so nothing against that color combination, but the official school colors of the Huskers are scarlet and cream and the uniforms worn in the Wisconsin game are anything but that. Indeed, the new "alternate" overly dark red Husker uniforms (they are NOT "scarlet", with BLACK helmets ("definitely not cream" (we post to that site because we hope these become RARITIES and collectors' items down the road) and black numbers (placed too low and making players look like high-schoolers) simply are not the school colors and we find these particular uniforms to be terrible from an aesthetic point of view and not representative of "Husker Nation". They make players harder to spot and identify on the field, and probably also make it more difficult for the quarterback to find receivers downfield, but in all fairness, perhaps, at the same time, making runners or defenders more elusive for opponents to see. The red and black uniforms were rolled out against Wisconsin and about the only thing good about the game was the 30-27 result, as the Huskers had to overcome a 27-10 deficit in the third quarter to win. The Cornhuskers outgained the Badgers 440 to 295 yards but fumbled the ball six times, losing only 2, and had they lost more they surely would have lost the game. Six penalties for 70 yards were also not helpful as the Husker play was very sloppy. We wonder why Saban's Alabama team looks like a well-oiled machine and the Huskers under Pelini always look like Bumblin' Fumblefingers. The mentioned mistakes must be (improvable) weaknesses in the coaching. In any case, the game was won on a 41-yard field goal by Brett Maher, his third of the game. Taylor Martinez was 17 of 29 passing for 181 yards and 2 TDs and rushed 13 times for 107 yards and 1 TD. Rex Burkhead rushed for 86 yards and Ameer Abdullah for 70 yards. We do not understand why Imani Cross did not see action in a game in which the first 12 carries netted only 31 yards.  If you are going to try to run the ball right at a physical team like Wisconsin, you should be using the back physically best prepared for that, and that would appear to be Cross, who gained over 100 yards last week. The 27-10 deficit Nebraska had was no accident -- it was the product of bad game planning and bad player execution, which was apparent in the first half, make no mistake. If things are not going right, you CHANGE them, immediately, you do not keep doing the same stupid thing over and over again. You do not call fumble-prone plays at the start of game play. You have to applaud the Husker defense, who saved the day. Rich Kaipust wrote: "NU STAR: Nebraska had to dust off its three-linebacker base defense, and the trio of seniors responded. Will Compton had 10 tackles, Alonzo Whaley nine and Sean Fisher seven. They also combined for six of the Huskers’ 12 tackles for losses."
YPPSYS system calls: We are 38-10 in calling the winner and 22-22-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 19-26 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

UTSA (University of Texas at San Antonio) v. New Mexico State: Aggies favored by 4 points.
Our call: 31-30 for UTSA.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 3.13 points.
Result: The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners of Larry Coker remained undefeated with a 35-14 "upset" of the Aggies, who turned the ball over 4 times to none for UTSA.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 39-10 in calling the winner and 23-22-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 20-26 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

UNLV v. Utah State: Aggies favored by 17 points.
Our call: 41-17 for the Aggies.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 19.60 points.
Result: Utah State beat UNLV 35-13, as the Aggies outgained the Rebels 564 to 305 yards, as Chuckie Keeton completed 20 of 33 passes for 402 yards and FOUR touchdowns, with 1 pick.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 40-10 in calling the winner and 24-22-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 21-26 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Mississippi v. Alabama: Crimson Tide favored by 31.5 points.
Our call: 35-14 for Alabama.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 30.47 points.
Result:The Crimson Tide beat Ole Miss 33-14 as Jeremy Shelley kicked four field goals. A.J. McCarron threw for 180 yards and 2 TDs and Eddie Lacy ran for 82 yards for 'Bama in a defensive struggle in which Alabama outgained the Rebels of Mississippi 305 to 218 yards and won the turnover battle 3 to 1.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 41-10 in calling the winner and 25-22-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 21-27 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Oregon State v. Arizona: Wildcats favored by 3 points.
Our call:  21-20 for Arizona.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 2.27 points.
Result:  Oregon State continues to surprise the college football world, winning its third in a row over a strong opponent, beating Arizona 38-35, as Sean Mannion completed 29 of 45 passes for 433 yards and 3 TDs. Arizona's Matt Scott was 31 of 53 through the air for 403 yards, 3 TDs but 2 picks. Storm Woods of the Beavers rushed for 161 yards and TD and Ka'Deem Carey had 115 yards and 2 TDs for the Wildcats in a game in which Oregon State outgained Arizona 613 to 545 yards.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 41-11 in calling the winner and 26-22-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 22-27 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

San Diego State v. Fresno State: Bulldogs favored by 8 points.
Our call: 37-30 for Fresno State. Our own stats favor Fresno State by 4 plus the home field advantage makes 7.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 6.56 points.
Result: Fresno State outgained the Aztecs 655 to 339 yards in winning 52-40, as Derek Carr completed 42 of 56 passes for 536 yards, FIVE TDs and 2 interceptions in a game marked by 9 turnovers.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 42-11 in calling the winner and 26-23-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 23-27 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Oregon v. Washington State: Ducks favored by 29 points.
Our call: 51-17 for Oregon. Our own stats would favor Oregon by less, but the Cougars lost to a weak Colorado team last week, while the Ducks have been running over opponents in spite of having yards per play stats that are good, but not as good as the scores. At times, the offense has appeared unstoppable, so we go with Oregon until someone stops them.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -28.96 points.
Result: Oregon led only 23-19 at the half but then turned on the power, leading 51-19 in the 4th quarter, as the Cougars scored a late TD to make it 51-26 the final score. Kenjon Barner of the Ducks ran for 195 yards and 3 TDs. Surprisingly low was the Oregon advantage in total net yards, 469 to 402 for Washington State.
YPPSYS system calls: We are 43-11 in calling the winner and 26-24-1 against the line.
Against the CFPT "average spread"
: We are 23-28 against the average CFPT spread.

SportPundit against Beyond the Bets: We are 3-0 against Beyond the Bets in games with no line.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Nebraska Cornhuskers News: Husker Athletic Director Tom Osborne To Retire at the End of the Year

Husker fans will be disappointed, but time marches on, and former Nebraska head football coach and current athletic director is to retire at the end of this year. The Associated Press has the story at ESPN in Nebraska Cornhuskers AD Tom Osborne going to retire.

Via Bleacher Report, Big Red Today discusses possible successors.


Monday, September 24, 2012

College Football Predictions Week 5 2012 by SportPundit and the Yards Per Play System YPPSYS [Updated 25 September 2012]]

Below are our predictions for Week 5 of FBS college football play in the 2012 regular season. [Last week our system-based predictions were better than our subjective choices. This week we test to see how we stack up against the prediction average at The College Football Prediction Tracker, which quantifies dozens of computer-based systems.]
__________

In making the predictions we use the YPPSYS yards per play system in which 1 rating point on our 2012 College Football Rankings FBS After Week 4 of Play = ca. 7 scoreboard points (just a rough estimate we use) and a home field advantage is worth 3 points. We estimate the score by using the sum of yards per play stats on both teams with a sum of ca. 21.6 (5.4+5.4+5.4+5.4) for both offense and defense (both teams added together) as the average. This corresponds to a ca. average winning score of about 37-16 (we use an odd score for easier calculations, although Massey Ratings last year had 36+ to 16+). Higher total ypp stat sums lead to higher score predictions and lower total ypp stat sums usually lead to lower score predictions.

Unless specifically linked to later odds added at e.g. the College Football Prediction Tracker, the lines used this week were taken from the Rivals Yahoo Sports NCAAF Live Odds Pointspreads as powered by OddsShark.com on September 24, 2012 6:15 a.m. EDT. These are "moving lines" that can change at any time, but we do not adjust our predictions for that, but rather take the line as of a given date and time as given.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

The visiting team is listed first, then the home team
e.g. Team A (visitor) v. Team B (home): B is favored by X points



Thursday, September 27, 2012

Stanford v. Washington: Cardinal favored by 7 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Stanford. In our ratings and rankings after Week 4 of college football play, we "upgraded" the Huskies to an asterisked rating of -0.9 points because the LSU game skewed their stats, although their true unadjusted performance rating is -2.2. If we use the adjusted rating, then Stanford is a 10 point favorite minus the home field advantage, makes 7, just as the line. If we use the straight unadjusted rating then Stanford would be a 19-point favorite minus the home field advantage of Washington makes 16. We subjectively take a middle ground and call it for Stanford by 10.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -12.17 points.

Result:


Friday, September 28, 2012

Hawaii v. Brigham Young: BYU favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 36-13 for the Cougars.  BYU tends to be stronger on defense, so we expect a lower-scoring affair here than a larger prediction spread would justify.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -21.17 points.

Result:


Saturday, September 29, 2012

Stony Brook v. Army: No Line. Beyond the Bets favors Army by 23 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Stony Brook. The Seawolves lost at Syracuse 28-17 and we rank Army 26 points worse than the Orange. We rate Army's opponents at an average of 80 and the opponents of Stony Brook perhaps at an average of ca. 250 up to this point, against whom Stony Brook has averaged 7.7 ypp on offense and 4.5 ypp on defense, for a yards per play advantage of 3.2, whereas Army has a negative ypp advantage stat of -2.8, so that the total difference is 6.0, which has to be adjusted for by the estimated schedule difficulty difference, which would result in an advantage of 15 scoreboard points for Stony Brook. We set the prediction at 17 points minus the home field advantage of 3 makes 14.
Result
:

Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati: Hokies favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Virginia Tech.  Our stats favor Cincinnati by six, plus the home field advantage, although it has traditionally been a mistake to go against a Hokies win, As "Beamer Ball" always seem to get better as the season goes along. The Pitt loss was unexpected, and one has to be careful.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 0.81 points.
Result:

Louisiana Tech v. Virginia: Louisiana Tech favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is 3-0 and faces a Cavaliers team that beat Penn State early in the season, but then was soundly beaten by Georgia Tech and TCU on the road. Our stats favor the Bulldogs by 7, but this could be close.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 7.75 points.
Result:

Buffalo v. Connecticut: Huskies favored by 18 points.
Our call: 28-17 for UConn.  The Huskies lost to MAC team Western Michigan last week, but Buffalo should be an easier opponent for them.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 17.81 points.
Result:

Clemson v. Boston College: Tigers favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Tigers.  Clemson seem likely to rebound from its loss to Florida State, facing an Eagles team that has not recovered from a tough season in 2011.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -8.61 points.
Result:

N.C. State v. Miami of Florida: Hurricanes favored by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Miami of Florida.  The Hurricanes beat Georgia Tech 42-36 in overtime last week, quite a change from their 52-13 loss to K-State in the second game of the season.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 4.65 points.
Result:

Missouri v. UCF: Knights favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for the Tigers.  That the Knights are favored over the Tigers is one of the more unusual spreads this week. The fact is that the only quality win by Missouri this year came with Corbin Berkstresser as QB in the Arizona State game. Berkstresser also looked good toward the end of the game against South Carolina last week (on ESPN), leading the team to its only TD, while starting QB James Franklin looked like he is not in top form passing or rushing due to his injury and should probably not be starting.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -1.82 points.
Result:

Baylor v. West Virginia: Mountaineers favored by 12.5 points.
Our call: 47-37 for West Virginia.  This is the Mountaineers' inaugural game in the Big 12. Baylor has been a surprise to us this year, doing so well without Robert Griffin III, while West Virginia surprises us when it scores below 50 (twice this year), while the Bears in fact are are averaging over 50 points a game. Our stats favor West Virginia by 10 but will Baylor in fact lose, given its own powerful offense? It could be close.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -6.31 points.
Result:

Florida State v. South Florida: Seminoles favored by 16 points.
Our call: 35-21 for the Seminoles.  After winning the classic matchup with Clemson, Florida State has to be careful not to have a letdown here.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -15.41 points.
Result:

Penn State v. Illinois: Fighting Illini favored by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-21 for the Nittany Lions. Our stats clearly favor Penn State and it will be a surprise to us if the favored Illini win.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -1.61 points.
Result:

Minnesota v. Iowa: Hawkeyes favored by 7 points.
Our call: 26-24 for the Golden Gophers.  Our stats favor Minnesota, though the likelihood they beat Iowa at home seems unlikely. We shall see.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 2.84 points.
Result:

Indiana v. Northwestern: Wildcats favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-20 for Northwestern.  Our stats favor Northwestern by 11, though a big win would be no surprise either.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 15.54 points.
Result:

Ball State v. Kent State: Cardinals favored by 2 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Ball State.  The Cardinals were impressive in beating South Florida last week.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -2.87 points.
Result:

Arkansas v. Texas A&M: Aggies favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for the Aggies. How strong are the Aggies and how weak can the Razorbacks get before improving?
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 15.17 points.
Result:

Duke v. Wake Forest: Demon Deacons favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for the Blue Devils.  Whenever these two teams play, we never have any idea who will win, but one of them always does.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 1.86 points.
Result:

Colorado State v. Air Force: Falcons favored by 15 points.
Our call: 30-24 for the Air Force. We would not be surprised if Air Force has to struggle to win this game.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 9.80 points.
Result:

Nevada v. Texas State: Wolf Pack favored by 22 points.
Our call: 34-28 for the Wolf Pack.  The Texas State coach is Dennis Franchione and they appear to be a better team than many give them credit for, so we are keeping our prediction spread small.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -15.81 points.
Result:

Miami of Ohio v. Akron: RedHawks favored by 6 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Zips. Our stats favor Akron, so we go with them.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -4.51 points.
Result:

Tulsa v. UAB: Golden Hurricane favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Tulsa. The Blazers put up a valiant game against Ohio State last week and are 0-3 against tough competiton. Tulsa is an offensive juggernaut that lost at Iowa State but beat a good Fresno State team last week. Our stats would favor Tulsa by 17 but we expect a closer game here based on last week's results.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -16.66 points.
Result:

Tennessee v. Georgia: Bulldogs favored by 14 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Georgia.  We are not sure if the Vols are getting better, we hope so, but they should be no match for Georgia this year.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 16.73 points.
Result:

Houston v. Rice: Cougars favored by 4.5 points.
Our call:  31-30 for Rice.  What a difference a year can make, at least to a Houston team that was riding high last season but has fallen on hard times this year. Rice may well be able to capitalize on its home field advantage.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -1.37 points.
Result:

San Jose State v. Navy: Spartans favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 37-24 for San Jose State. With a lone loss to Stanford, the Spartans appear to have an excellent team in 2012, while the Midshipmen are struggling against FBS competition.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -8.90 points.
Result:

LA Monroe v. Tulane: Warhawks favored by 19.5 points.
Our call:  34-20 for Louisiana Monroe.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -17.02 points.
Result:

Idaho v. North Carolina: Tar Heels favored by 24 points.
Our call: 38-17 for the Tar Heels.  North Carolina always seems to have a lot of talent, the teams are good, but not necessarily dominant.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 24.59 points.
Result:

Ohio v. Massachusetts: Bobcats favored by 24 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Ohio [updated prediction below]. The Bobcats have a tendency to play poorly against overmatched opponents, so you have to be careful. [Update. We made our call before the line on this game was known, and now they also have 24 points. Accordingly, we always change our prediction to go one way or the other so that we get a result against the spread. We go with the home field of the Minutemen and so call this game now 37-14 for Ohio.]
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -26.00 points.
Result:

Troy v. South Alabama: Trojans favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Troy. After a down year in 2011, Troy seems back on track.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -9.75 points.
Result:

Ohio State v. Michigan State: Spartans favored by 2.5 points.
Our call:  17-16 for Ohio State. In 4 games the Spartans have made only 9 TDs themselves, but their rock-hard defense has also allowed only 3 TDs. The Buckeyes have scored 20 TDs and allowed 7 TDs. The Spartan problem is that they are likely to lose to teams with good offenses who also have decent defenses, at least good enough to stop Michigan State's weak offense. That is what happened in the loss to Notre Dame. According to our stats, the Spartans should win by 6 plus the home field advantage, but we have our doubts that they can score enough points against Ohio State to take advantage of any purported advantage their own defense may give them. Plus, they are going against one of the top head coaches in the business, who knows how to get the best out of a talented quarterback like Braxton Miller, who could prove to be the difference.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 2.00 points.
Result:

Marshall v. Purdue: Boilermakers favored by 15 points.
Our call: 41-20 for Purdue. Our stats suggest that the Boilermakers are quite strong this year, with good offense and good defense.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 16.13 points.
Result:

Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois: Huskies favored by 10 points.
Our call: 36-21 for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are our favorites to win the MAC this season, in a conference which seems to get stronger every year.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 12.02 points.
Result:

Rhode Island v. Bowling Green: Beyond the Bets favors the Falcons over the Rams by 27 points.
Our call: 38-7 for Bowling Green. The 37-0 shutout by Virginia Tech was quite a shock last week, so the Falcons will be out to put points on the board.
Result
:

Arizona State v. California: Bears favored by 2 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Arizona State. We were genuinely surprised to see the Bears favored. Indeed, this is a rare case where the line diverges greatly from the average of all the computer-based predictions, including YPPSYS, but then again, the line often wins, so you have to be careful.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -7.50 points.
Result:

North Texas v. Florida Atlantic: Mean Green favored by 4 points.
Our call: 31-21 for North Texas. Carl Pelini in his first year as head coach is surely making improvements at Florida Atlantic, but the Owls still have a long way to go, and so does North Texas, although Dan McCarney, now in his second year as Mean Green head coach, should already be "a bit ahead".
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -6.04 points.
Result:

Boise State v. New Mexico: Broncos favored by 27 points.
Our call: 37-16 for the Broncos.  Boise State has scored only 5 TDs on offense this year and allowed only 4. The Lobos surprised with a win last week on the road over archrival New Mexico State, thus ending the naton's longest losing streak on the road at 24 straight losses, much to the joy of first-year head coach Bob Davie. This is New Mexico's first home game against an FBS opponent this year, which should add some motivation to this contest.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -22.88 points.
Result:

UCLA v. Colorado: Bruins favored by 21 points.
Our call: 45-14 for the Bruins. The Buffaloes won surprisingly on the road against Washington State last week, but they should be heavy underdogs the rest of the season, and will surely struggle against the strong UCLA offense.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -19.27 points.
Result:

Toledo v. Western Michigan: Broncos favored by 3 points.
Our call: 34-30 for the Broncos. Last year's game was on offensive donnybrook in a 66-63 Bronco win at Toledo. Both teams are not as strong offensively this year, but the Toledo pass defense is supect. Our adjustment for the difficulty of the Toledo schedule thus far may be a bit optimistic.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 0.55 points.
Result:

South Carolina v. Kentucky: Gamecocks favored by 21 points.
Our call:  31-21 for the Gamecocks. The Wildcats thus far this season epitomize the "average" FBS team with 5.4 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 ypp on defense. They face a superior team, but average teams at home tend to play better against strong competition. The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -19.50 points.
Result:

Towson v. LSU: No line. Beyond the Bets favors the Tigers by 48 points.
Our call:  47-7 for LSU. After a miserable offensive showing last week against Auburn, LSU will be motivated to put points on the board, but once you get near 50 point spreads, the natural tendency of coaches is to pull starters early and give reserve players game experience, so scores can taper off easily.
Result
:

TCU v. Southern Methodist (SMU): Horned Frogs favored by 18 points.
Our call: 34-13 for TCU.  The Mustangs have been blown out by Baylor and Texas A&M so that a squeaker here is unlikely.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -17.0 points.
Result:

UTEP v. East Carolina: Pirates favored by 4 points.
Our call: 27-26 for UTEP. Our calls on East Carolina and UTEP are often wrong, for some reason, but this time, one of them has to win.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 5.68 points.
Result:

Middle Tennessee State v. Georgia Tech: Yellow Jackets favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 41-20 for Georgia Tech. Rushing defense is the name of the game for teams that play the Yellow Jackets.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 22.30 points.
Result:

Western Kentucky v. Arkansas State: Red Wolves favored by 1 point.
Our call: 31-27 for the Hilltoppers. This is definitely one of the most interesting matchups of the year, finding a vastly improved Hilltopper team against an Arkansas State team starting on its way up under offensive guru Gus Malzahn. Despite losing big to ranked Oregon and Nebraska, the Red Wolves "already" rank 15th nationally in total offense. The Hilltoppers are 3-1 with the lone loss to top-ranked Alabama 35-0. 
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -2.90 points.
Result:

Florida International (FIU) v. LA Lafayette: Cajuns favored by 6 points.
Our call: 28-27 for the Ragin' Cajuns. FIU has not been as strong this year as expected in the preseason. The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 8.41 points.
Result:

Texas v. Oklahoma State: Longhorns favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Texas. Given the 59-38 rout by Arizona, this Cowboy team simply does not appear to have the defense to match the Longhorns' offense.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 0.18 points.
Result:

Louisville v. Southern Miss: Cardinals favored by 10.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Louisville. At this point it appears impossible that Southern Miss will emerge from this season with a winning record, whereas Louisville is constantly improving.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -11.68 points.
Result:

Texas Tech v. Iowa State: Red Raiders favored by 2.5 points.
Our call:  24-23 for Iowa State. This will be the first real competition for the Red Raiders after beating three weaker opponents by an average of 40 points. Both teams go into this game undefeated, but the Cyclones have two upset wins over Tulsa and Iowa under their belts and the defense has allowed only 3 touchdowns in 3 games. How will they fare against a Texas Tech offense that has scored 18 TDs in 3 games? Last year the Cyclones won 41-7 on the road.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -0.13 points.
Result:

Wisconsin v. Nebraska: Huskers favored by 13 points.

Our call: 31-21 for Nebraska. Both teams are 3-1 against much lower-ranked opponents and also have inexplicable losses to presumably weaker Pac 10 teams. Last season Wisconsin at home physically rolled over the Huskers 48-17. This year the Badgers seem to lack the offensive power of 2011 while the Huskers appear to be stronger on offense, with problems on defense, so it helps if the opponent is not strong offensively, but this game could be close.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 5.86 points.
Result:

UTSA (University of Texas at San Antonio) v. New Mexico State: Aggies favored by 4 points.
Our call: 31-30 for UTSA . Our ratings and rankings have these teams 110th and 111th. UTSA is undefeated with four wins over weaker competition. The Aggies have lost three in a row, with an unexpected home loss last week to the Lobos of New Mexico. We go here with the Roadrunners, the team that has not lost this year under head coach Larry Coker, who won the national championship as head coach of the Miami Hurricanes the previous decade.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 3.13 points.
Result:

UNLV v. Utah State: Aggies favored by 17 points.
Our call: 41-17 for the Aggies: Utah State has a good chance this year to improve upon its 7-5 regular season record from last year and would be undefeated this year if the Aggies had made a field goal in the 16-14 loss to Wisconsin.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 19.60 points.
Result:

Mississippi v. Alabama: Crimson Tide favored by 31.5 points.
Our call: 35-14 for Alabama. Under new head coach Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss has been looking good and has won three, with a blowout loss 66-31 to Texas two weeks ago (3 to 0 turnovers). Last season the Rebels lost at home 52-7 to the Crimson Tide. They could get closer than that this year, even if it is on the road, but they will have to score some touchdowns against an Alabama defense that has only allowed 3 all year in posing 2 shutouts in four games.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 30.47 points.
Result:

Oregon State v. Arizona: Wildcats favored by 3 points.
Our call:  21-20 for Arizona.  Our stats make this game even. The Beavers have come out of nowhere to post two impressive upset wins over ranked opponents. Now they face a puzzling Arizona team that upset Oklahoma State to start the season and then were blanked 49-0 by Oregon last week. The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 2.27 points.
Result:

San Diego State v. Fresno State: Bulldogs favored by 8 points.
Our call: 37-30 for Fresno State. Our own stats favor Fresno State by 4 plus the home field advantage makes 7.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of 6.56 points.
Result:

Oregon v. Washington State: Ducks favored by 29 points.
Our call: 51-17 for Oregon. Our own stats would favor Oregon by less, but the Cougars lost to a weak Colorado team last week, while the Ducks have been running over opponents in spite of having yards per play stats that are good, but not as good as the scores. At times, the offense has appeared unstoppable, so we go with Oregon until someone stops them.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") has an average spread prediction of -28.96 points.
Result:

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