Should Husker Nation Be Even More Patient Than It Has Been? It All Depends on What You Want

Tom Shatel at the Omaha World-Herald asks: Will Husker Nation be patient? Will Pelini?

We have some thoughts about that as a Nebraska alumnus.

Urban Meyer was undefeated at Ohio State in his first year as head coach with the Buckeyes, continuing a record of quick successes stretching clear back to Meyer's Bowling Green, Utah and Florida days, so it can't just be the football talent available at any given school. It is also very much an issue of COACHING talent.

Brian Kelly took over at Notre Dame in 2010 and went undefeated in 2012 and the Fighting Irish are now in the BCS national championship game.

Nick Saban took over head coaching the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2007 and his 2009 Crimson Tide were national champions.

So how many years does a coach of national championship caliber need to get his team on the right track on the modern college football scene?
Not many.
Champions have that extra something.

On a different level of assessing patience for the future, recruiting does not bide well for coming years. Patrick Runge wrote at the start of the 2012 season: Nebraska Football Recruiting: Don't Kid Yourselves, Fans, Huskers Must Do Better.

Rivals.com currently ranks the 2013 Nebraska 36th, although if the total number of recruits is not used as part of the measuring stick but only the average rating of the recruited players is taken, then Nebraska ranks 24th. Well, that is about where the Cornhuskers have been ranked in past years, just at the foot of the top 25, and it looks like that is where the Huskers will be staying. One is unlikely to have championship teams based on wishful thinking alone, walk-ons notwithstanding.

On the other hand, given the actual location of Lincoln, Nebraska on the football landscape and given the available recruiting base, the Huskers have done well to be where they are, producing good football teams in a sparsely populated area. Expecting national champions in Huskerland is illusory.

If we were the Nebraska Chancellor today, looking for an undiscovered potential coaching champion, and if the grass roots demanded a head coaching change, we might offer to retain Pelini as defensive coordinator, but would try to hire as a head coach a young man such as Glenn Caruso, although he might not take the job, surely being very loyal to "his current family" of players and coaches.

Caruso for his St. Thomas Division III team has expressed the right philosophy which should be adopted by the current Nebraska team and by future Husker teams:

“We don’t quit,” he said. “We don’t whine. And we never get embarrassed.”

Now, THAT shows intuitive coaching and motivational talent, win or lose. Game plans and Xs and Os can never replace internal motivation.

When you have lost 70-31 to a team you beat earlier in the season, you were not rightly prepared, you did not give your all, and you gave up. You have quit, everyone is whining, and you have been embarrassed.

We hope that the present Husker team can regain some respect in the Georgia game, win or lose.

Don't quit. Don't whine. Don't get embarrassed.

That is far more important than winning. Besides, if you follow that philosophy, you will win your fair share. Guaranteed.

And should you lose, you can still hold your head up, which you have to be able to do, long after the game has been played.

Top 20 Most Valuable College Football Teams in Terms of Dollars are Led by Texas, Michigan, and Notre Dame

College football is a big dollar business, and Chris Smith at Forbes has a list of the top 20 teams in terms of dollar value at The Business Of College Football.

As a matter of law and taxes, however, it is just all a part of college education.

Former Husker Head Coach Tom Osborne Says There is Less Patience with Coaches Today

The coaching carousel in college football is in full swing with coaches shifting their allegiances to the highest bidder in a highly compensated profession in which winning is everything and losing is all but not tolerated.

Former Cornhusker head coach Tom Osborne was interviewed by Steven M. Sipple of the Lincoln Journal Star and his article headline speaks volumes:

Osborne Says Society's Increasing Vitriol Impacts Coaches

Sipple quotes Osborne as saying that:

"I think across the nation, there is less patience than there used to be," Osborne said. "Maybe it has to do with salaries to some degree."

There is no question that Ozzie is right about the lack of patience and that surely the high salaries paid in college coaching today play a great role in the expectations of fans, donors, sponsors and university administrators.

On the other hand, it is equally true that if winning were not an issue then coaches could be paid normal salaries comparable to other educators.

The overinflated salaries of college football coaches are all a product of a society that has allowed its economic system to become split into "haves" and "have nots", into people working hard to make millions and others working equally hard just to get by.

The solution of course is to implement political and economic solutions whereby some semblance of sensible equality and balance is restored to the distribution of income and wealth in the nation.

Until that happens, winning will remain the top priority and the salaries of top winning coaches will continue to escalate -- and expectations with them.

After all, athletic programs must be financed and stadiums have to be filled.

Bowl Game Predictions 2012-2013 by SportPundit and YPPSYS for FBS & BCS College Football Bowls

Update: line and CFPT average computer spread updates as well as some prediction changes for the reasons given there are found at the next posting on predictions and results at
http://sportpundit.blogspot.com/2012/12/bowl-game-prediction-results-for-2012.html
__________

Bowl Game Predictions 2012-2013 by SportPundit and YPPSYS for FBS College Football Bowls

Our predictions this week rely on our Final College Football Rankings 2012 FBS at the End of the Regular Season but Pre-Bowl by SportPundit and YPPSYS, the Yards Per Play System. The odds, "line" or "spread" as well as the CFPT average computer spread are found at the College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") Yahoo Sports Odds, Odds Shark, and Maddux Sports.

For the 2012 regular season we were 609-166 (79%) in calling the winner,
and 353-332-11 against the line (ATS, against the spread)
and we were 265-247 against the CFPT average computer spread
for the ten weeks that we kept track. Predicting the bowl games is more difficult, because bowls generally take place many weeks after the regular season final game for most teams, so that new factors come into play.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

The visiting team is listed first, then the home team
e.g. Team A (visitor) v. Team B (home): B is favored by X points



BOWL GAME PREDICTIONS 2012-2013
by SportPundit
via YPPSYS, the Yards Per Play SystemBowl Schedule via The Quad, New York Times

Saturday, December 8, 2012,


ARMY-NAVY game, 3:00 p.m. EST
Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights. The Midshipmen are favored by 7 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Navy.
Navy - ranked 66th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.0
Army - ranked 116th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -4.4.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = -13.12 points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Saturday, December 15, 2012 

Gildan New Mexico Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST

University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico - televized by ESPN

Nevada Wolf Pack v. Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats are favored by 8 points.
Our call: 40-31 for Arizona.
Nevada- ranked 75th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
Arizona - ranked 33rd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 4:30 p.m. EST

Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho - televized by ESPN
Toledo Rockets v. Utah State Aggies. The Aggies are favored by 9 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Utah State.
Toledo - ranked 72nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
Utah State - ranked 21st by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Thursday, December 20, 2012 

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, 8:00 p.m. EST
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California - televized by ESPN
BYU Cougars v. San Diego State Aztecs. The Cougars are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 24-23 for San Diego State.
BYU - ranked 35th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
San Diego State - ranked 48th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.5.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Friday, December 21, 2012 

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg, 7:30 p.m. EST
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida - televized by ESPN
Ball State Cardinals v. UCF Knights. The Knights are favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 26-24 for UCF.
Ball State - ranked 71st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.1
Central Florida - ranked 54th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Saturday, December 22, 2012 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana - televized by ESPN
East Carolina Pirates v. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. The Ragin' Cajuns are favored by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for LA Lafayette.
East Carolina - ranked 84th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.5
LA Lafayette - ranked 58th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, 3:30 p.m. EST
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada - televized by ESPN

Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos. The Broncos are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Boise State.
Washington - ranked 43rd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.3
Boise State - ranked 23rd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -0.9.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Monday, December 24, 2012 

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, 8:00 p.m. EST
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii - televized by ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs v. SMU Mustangs. The Bulldogs are favored by 12 points.
Our call: 34-21 for Fresno State.
Fresno State - ranked 45th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.4
SMU - ranked 98th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -3.2.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Wednesday, December 26, 2012 

Little Caesars Bowl, 7:30 p.m. EST
Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan - televized by ESPN

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers v. Central Michigan Chippewas. The Hilltoppers are favored by 7 points.
Our call: 35-27 for Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky - ranked 62nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.9
Central Michigan - ranked 90th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -3.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Thursday, December 27, 2012 

Military Bowl -- Pres. by Northrop Grumman, 3:00 p.m. EST
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C. - televized by ESPN
San Jose State Spartans v. Bowling Green Falcons. The Spartans are favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for San Jose State.
San Jose State - ranked 22nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -0.9
Bowling Green - ranked 76th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -2.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Belk Bowl, 6:30 p.m. EST
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. - televized by ESPN
Cincinnati Bearcats v. Duke Blue Devils. The Bearcats are favored by 10 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati - ranked 41st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.2
Duke - ranked 89th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -2.9.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, 9:45 p.m. EST
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California - televized by ESPN
Baylor Bears v. UCLA Bruins. The teams are rated even. Take your pick. point.
Our call: 37-31 for UCLA.
Baylor - ranked 24th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -0.9
UCLA - ranked 13th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Friday, December 28, 2012 

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, 2:00 p.m. EST
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana - televized by ESPN
Ohio Bobcats v. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. The Warhawks are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for LA Monroe.
Ohio - ranked 77th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
LA Monroe - ranked 59th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Russell Athletic Bowl, 5:30 p.m. EST
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida - televized by ESPN
Virginia Tech Hokies v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Hokies are favored by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Rutgers.
Virginia Tech - ranked 56th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.8
Rutgers - ranked 40th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.2.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, 9:00 p.m. EST
Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas - televized by ESPN
Minnesota Golden Gophers v. Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Red Raiders are favored by 13 points.
Our call: 33-24 for Texas Tech.
Minnesota - ranked 50th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.7
Texas Tech - ranked 26th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Saturday, December 29, 2012 

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, 11:45 a.m. EST
Armon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas - televized by ESPN
Rice Owls v. Air Force Falcons. The Falcons are favored by 1.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Air Force.
Rice - ranked 95th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -3.1
Air Force - ranked 74th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -2.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

New Era Pinstripe Bowl, 3:15 p.m. EST
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York - televized by ESPN
West Virginia v. Syracuse. The Mountaineers are favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 35-31 for West Virginia.
West Virginia - ranked 31st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Syracuse - ranked 51st by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.7.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, 3:15 p.m. EST
AT&T Park, San Francisco, California - televized by ESPN2
Navy Midshipmen v. Arizona State Sun Devils. The ?? are favored by ?? points.
Our call: 31-24 for Arizona State.
Navy - ranked 66th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.0
Arizona State - ranked 29th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Valero Alamo Bowl, 6:45 p.m. EST
Alamodome, San  Antonio, Texas - televized by ESPN
Texas Longhorns v. Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers are favored by 1 point.
Our call: 34-31 for Texas.
Texas - ranked 20th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -0.5
Oregon State - ranked 17th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 10:15 p.m. EST
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona - televized by ESPN
TCU Horned Frogs v. Michigan State Spartans. The Horned Frogs are favored by 1 point.
Our call: 24-23 for Michigan State.
TCU - ranked 30th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Michigan State - ranked 32nd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Monday, December 31, 2012 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee - televized by ESPN
North Carolina State Wolfpack v. Vanderbilt Commodores. The Commodores are favored by 5.5 points.
Our call: 28-21 for Vanderbilt.
NC State - ranked 68th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.1
Vanderbilt - ranked 36th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Hyundai Sun Bowl, 2:00 p.m. EST 
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas - televized by CBS
USC v. Georgia Tech. The ?? are favored by ?? points.
Our call: 40-27 for USC.
Southern Cal - ranked 18th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.0.
Georgia Tech - ranked 57th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 3:30 p.m. EST
Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tennessee - televized by ESPN
Iowa State Cyclones v. Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The Golden Hurricane is favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Iowa State.
Iowa State - ranked 47th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.5
Tulsa - ranked 53rd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Chick-fil-A Bowl, 7:30 p.m. EST
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia - televized by ESPN
LSU v. Clemson. The LSU Tigers are favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for LSU.
LSU - ranked 5th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.3.
Clemson - ranked 34th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Heart of Dallas Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas - televized by ESPNU
Purdue Boilermakers v. Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys are favored by 18 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Oklahoma State.
Purdue - ranked 73rd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
Oklahoma State - ranked 25th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -0.9.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
Everbank Field, Jacksonville, Florida - televized by ESPN2
Mississippi State Bulldogs v. Northwestern Wildcats. The Bulldogs are favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Northwestern.
Mississippi State - ranked 46th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.5
Northwestern - ranked 28th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Capitol One Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida - televized by ABC
Georgia Bulldogs v. Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Bulldogs are favored by 8.5 points.
Our call: 33-30 for Nebraska.
Georgia - ranked 4th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.4
Nebraska - ranked 15th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Outback Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
Raymond James Stadiuim, Tampa, Florida - televized by ESPN
South Carolina Gamecocks v. Michigan Wolverines. The Gamecocks are favored by 4 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Michigan.
South Carolina - ranked 10th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.0
Michigan - ranked 16th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio, 5:00 p.m. EST
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California - televized by ESPN
Wisconsin Badgers v. Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Stanford.
Wisconsin - ranked 14th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.0
Stanford - ranked 8th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Discover Orange Bowl, 8:30 p.m. EST
Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida - televized by ESPN
Northern Illinois Huskies v. Florida State Seminoles. The Seminoles are favored by 14 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Florida State.
Northern Illinois - ranked 38th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Florida State - ranked 19th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Allstate Sugar Bowl, 8:30 p.m. EST
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana - televized by ESPN
Louisville Cardinals v. Florida Gators. The Gators are favored by 14.5 points.
Our call: 28-21 for Florida.
Louisville - ranked 39th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Florida - ranked 9th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, 8:30 p.m. EST
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona - televized by ESPN
Oregon Ducks v. Kansas State Wildcats. The Ducks are favored by 8 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Oregon.
Oregon - ranked 3rd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.4
Kansas State - ranked 11th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Friday, January 4, 2013

AT&T Cotton Bowl, 8:00 p.m. EST
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas - televized by Fox
Texas A&M Aggies v. Oklahoma Sooners. The Aggies are favored by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-33 for Oklahoma.
Texas A&M - ranked 7th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.3
Oklahoma - ranked 12th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Saturday, January 5, 2013

BBVA Compass Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama - televized by ESPN
Pittsburgh Panthers v. Mississippi Rebels. The Rebels are favored by 2 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh - ranked 52nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.7
Mississippi - ranked 37th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Sunday, January 6, 2013

GoDaddy.com Bowl, 9:00 p.m. EST
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama - televized by ESPN
Kent State Golden Flashes v. Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Red Wolves are favored by 2 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Arkansas State.
Kent State - ranked 61st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.9
Arkansas State - ranked 44th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Monday, January 7, 2013

Discover BCS National Championship, 8:30 p.m. EST
Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida - televized by ESPN
Alabama Crimson Tide v. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Crimson Tide is favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 31-23 for Alabama.
Alabama - ranked 1st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +1.5.
Notre Dame - ranked 2nd by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.4.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = ?? points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result:

Final College Football Rankings 2012 FBS at Regular Season End but Pre-Bowl

Final College Football Rankings 2012 FBS at the End of Regular Season Play but Pre-Bowl by SportPundit & YPPSYS, Yards Per Play System

Teams below are color-coded by conference -- the selected color was random.
The color-coding of the rankings shows quickly that teams from the same conference tend to "clump" together, thus making the general strength (or weakness) of the conference more visible.
 
These ratings and rankings AFTER the FOURTEENTH week of play (we consider the Army vs. Navy game a "bowl game") are based on the primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation of the schedule difficulty. Starting about mid-season, ours is not an ordinal ranking of schedule difficulty by 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. but is rather based on the average rank of the teams played. We also apply adjustments early in the season because not enough games have been played and such stats are skewed, leading to poor predictions. The inclusion of FCS teams in scheduling makes calculation of the strength of schedule difficult and the strength of FCS teams is an approximation. We use Sagarin USA Today and Massey Ratings for assistance in calculating the strength of FCS teams for purposes of calculating schedule difficulty, which is not an exact science by any means, but only an estimate.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA two years ago but lost a game.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)

• 3.0 NAYPPA - 6.6 yards per play on offense to 3.6 yards per play on defense = USC Trojans 2008 season

• 2.8 NAYPPA - 6.2 yards per play on offense to 3.4 yards per play on defense (stats) = Oklahoma Sooners 1974 season 

• 2.7 NAYPPA- 7.2 yards per play on offense to 4.5 yards per play on defense = Nebraska Cornhuskers 1995 season

In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant. The yards per play on offense has increased somewhat in the last couple of years after FBS teams started scheduling weaker FCS teams. The weaker an opponent the better the NAYPPA stat usually becomes, hence one has to adjust for schedule difficulty, which is not easy to do, especially given the law of diminishing returns in terms of yards-per-play advantage and weakness of the opposing team.

We get the yards-per-play stats that we use from the college or university online football websites that are linked below under "yards per play offense" or from cfbstats.com, a website with loads of college football statistics.


THE YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS AFTER WEEK 14 OF PLAY

2012 Sport Pundit Rank	AFTER WEEK FOURTEEN (14) TEAM FBS color-coded by conference	NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage offense over defense		yards per play offense		yards per play defense			Schedule difficulty as opponent average rank plus or minus  subjective adjustments (this is our calculation based on various sources including our own rankings)		W-L record 2012		YPPSYS Team Rating NAYPPA minus .01 x 2 x schedule difficulty minus .2 for every loss.
1	Alabama	2.8		6.9		4.1			55		12-1		+1.5
2	Notre Dame	1.5		6.0		4.5			55		12-0		+0.4
3	Oregon	1.7		6.7		5.0			55		12-1		+0.4
4	Georgia	1.9		7.0		5.1			55		11-2		+0.4
5	LSU	1.1		5.6		4.5			45		10-2		+0.3
6	Ohio State	1.1		6.1		5.0			40		12-0		+0.3
7	Texas A&M	1.7		6.9		5.2			50		10-2		+0.3
8	Stanford	0.8		5.5		4.7			25		11-2		+0.3
9	Florida	1.0		5.3		4.3			40		11-1		+0.0
10	South Carolina	0.9		5.6		4.7			50		10-2		+0.0
11	Kansas State	1.0		6.4		5.4			40		11-1		+0.0
12	Oklahoma	1.2		6.6		5.4			40		10-2		+0.0
13	UCLA	0.5		6.1		5.6			0		9-4		+0.0
14	Wisconsin	1.3		6.0		4.7			35		8-5		+0.0
15	Nebraska	1.3		6.3		5.0			35		10-3		+0.0
16	Michigan	1.6		6.3		4.7			40		8-4		+0.0
17	Oregon State	1.0		6.1		5.1			20		9-3		+0.0
18	USC	1.5		6.8		5.3			25		7-5		+0.0
19	Florida State	3.1		7.0		3.9			135		11-2		+0.0
20	Texas	0.3		6.4		6.1			0		8-4		-0.5
21	Utah State	2.3		6.6		4.3			135		10-2		-0.8
22	San Jose St.	1.2		6.4		5.2			85		10-2		-0.9
23	Boise State	1.4		5.9		4.5			95		10-2		-0.9
24	Baylor	0.8		7.0		6.2			35		7-5		-0.9
25	Oklahoma State	1.7		7.0		5.3			80		7-5		-0.9
26	Texas Tech	1.1		6.5		5.4			55		7-5		-1.0
27	Penn State	0.5		5.4		4.9			35		8-4		-1.0
28	Northwestern	0.1		5.4		5.3			25		9-3		-1.0
29	Arizona State	1.0		5.7		4.7			50		7-5		-1.0
30	TCU	0.5		5.6		5.1			30		7-5		-1.1
31	West Virginia	0.3		6.6		6.3			10		7-5		-1.1
32	Michigan State	0.7		5.0		4.3			30		6-6		-1.1
33	Arizona	0.3		6.3		6.0			20		7-5		-1.1
34	Clemson	0.8		6.5		5.7			75		10-2		-1.1
35	BYU	0.9		5.3		4.4			50		7-5		-1.1
36	Vanderbilt	1.1		5.8		4.7			70		8-4		-1.1
37	Mississippi	0.4		5.9		5.5			15		6-6		-1.1
38	North. Illinois	2.1		6.6		4.5			150		12-1		-1.1
39	Louisville	0.6		6.0		5.4			65		10-2		-1.1
40	Rutgers	0.7		5.5		4.8			65		9-3		-1.2
41	Cincinnati	1.2		6.4		5.2			90		9-3		-1.2
42	North Carolina	1.3		6.5		5.2			90		8-4		-1.3
43	Washington	-0.3		5.0		5.3			0		7-5		-1.3
44	Arkansas State	1.2		6.6		5.4			95		9-3		-1.3
45	Fresno State	1.6		6.3		4.7			120		9-3		-1.4
46	Mississippi St.	0.4		6.0		5.6			55		8-4		-1.5
47	Iowa State	-0.6		5.2		5.8			0		6-6		-1.5
48	San Diego State	0.7		6.0		5.3			80		9-3		-1.5
49	Arkansas	0.4		6.1		5.7			25		4-8		-1.7
50	Minnesota	-0.3		4.9		5.2			35		6-6		-1.7
51	Syracuse	0.3		6.0		5.7			70		7-5		-1.7
52	Pittsburgh	0.9		5.9		5.0			70		6-6		-1.7
53	Tulsa	0.7		5.6		4.9			95		10-3		-1.8
54	UCF	0.9		6.0		5.1			95		9-4		-1.8
55	Miami (Florida)	0.4		6.5		6.1			60		7-5		-1.8
56	Virginia Tech	0.4		5.4		5.0			50		6-6		-1.8
57	Georgia Tech	0.4		6.2		5.8			40		6-7		-1.8
58	Louis.-Lafayette	0.8		6.7		5.9			90		8-4		-1.8
59	Louis.-Monroe	0.1		5.8		5.7			55		8-4		-1.8
60	Auburn	-0.7		5.3		6.0			0		3-9		-1.9
61	Kent State	0.1		5.8		5.7			80		11-2		-1.9
62	West. Kentucky	0.8		6.0		5.2			85		7-5		-1.9
63	Missouri	-0.6		4.9		5.5			0		5-7		-2.0
64	Utah	-0.4		4.9		5.3			10		5-7		-2.0
65	Louisiana Tech	0.1		6.6		6.5			75		9-3		-2.0
66	Navy	0.1		5.9		5.8			65		7-4		-2.0
67	Tennessee	0.3		6.4		6.1			50		5-7		-2.1
68	N.C. State	-0.5		5.2		5.7			30		7-5		-2.1
69	California	0.1		5.8		5.7			20		3-9		-2.1
70	Mid. Tennessee	-0.3		5.8		6.1			50		8-4		-2.1
71	Ball State	-0.5		5.8		6.3			50		9-3		-2.1
72	Toledo	-0.1		6.2		6.3			80		9-3		-2.3
73	Purdue	-0.1		5.5		5.6			50		6-6		-2.3
74	Air Force	0.0		5.8		5.8			55		6-6		-2.3
75	Nevada	0.3		6.2		5.9			80		7-5		-2.3
76	Bowling Green	0.8		5.4		4.6			115		8-4		-2.3
77	Ohio	0.1		5.6		5.5			80		8-4		-2.3
78	Indiana	-0.4		5.7		6.1			20		4-8		-2.4
79	Iowa	-0.8		4.7		5.5			0		4-8		-2.4
80	Virginia	0.2		5.3		5.1			30		4-8		-2.4
81	Temple	-1.1		5.1		6.3			5		4-7		-2.4
82	South Florida	-0.3		5.6		5.7			35		3-9		-2.4
83	Connecticut	0.3		4.8		4.5			75		5-7		-2.4
84	East Carolina	-0.2		5.6		5.8			75		8-4		-2.5
85	Kentucky	-0.7		4.8		5.5			0*		2-10		-2.7
86	Marshall	0.1		5.9		5.8			70		5-7		-2.7
87	Washington St.	-0.8		4.9		5.7			15		3-9		-2.9
88	Maryland	-0.6		4.4		5.0			35		4-8		-2.9
89	Duke	-1.2		5.3		6.5			25		6-6		-2.9
90	Cent. Michigan	0.1		6.2		6.1			75		6-6		-3.0
91	Buffalo	0.0		5.2		5.2			75		4-8		-3.1
92	West. Michigan	0.2		5.8		5.6			75		4-8		-3.1
93	Houston	0.2		5.8		5.6			95		5-7		-3.1
94	Troy	-0.1		6.2		6.3			80		5-7		-3.1
95	Rice	-1.1		5.4		6.5			40		6-6		-3.1
96	UTSA	-0.2		5.8		6.0			110		8-4		-3.2
97	North Texas	-0.6		5.5		6.1			50		4-8		-3.2
98	SMU	-0.3		5.2		5.5			85		6-6		-3.2
99	Illinois	-1.3		4.5		5.8			0		2-10		-3.3
100	Wyoming	-0.7		5.5		6.2			50		4-8		-3.3
101	Texas State	-0.6		5.9		6.5			60		4-8		-3.4
102	Memphis	-0.4		5.0		5.4			65		4-8		-3.5
103	Wake Forest	-1.4		4.4		5.8			35		5-7		-3.5
104	Boston College	-0.5		5.1		5.6			50		2-10		-3.5
105	Colorado State	-0.1		5.4		5.5			90		4-8		-3.5
106	East. Michigan	-1.4		5.3		6.7			5		2-10		-3.5
107	Miami (Ohio)	-0.8		5.5		6.3			60		4-8		-3.6
108	Hawaii	-1.1		4.3		5.4			40		3-9		-3.7
109	UNLV	-0.8		5.2		6.0			35		2-11		-3.7
110	Fl. Int'l FIU	-0.2		5.4		5.6			85		3-9		-3.7
111	New Mexico	-1.1		5.7		6.8			35		4-9		-3.8
112	UTEP	-0.7		5.4		6.1			70		3-9		-3.9
113	Kansas	-1.8		5.0		6.8			0		1-11		-4.0
114	Tulane	-1.7		4.7		6.4			30		2-10		-4.3
115	UAB	-0.6		5.6		6.2			95		3-9		-4.3
116	Army	-1.2		5.7		6.9			70		2-9		-4.4
117	Florida Atlantic	-1.1		5.1		6.2			75		3-9		-4.4
118	Massachusetts	-2.5		3.9		6.4			0		1-11		-4.7
119	South Alabama	-1.0		4.6		5.6			75		2-11		-4.7
120	Colorado	-2.7		4.4		7.1			0		1-11		-4.9
121	Akron	-0.6		5.4		6.0			105		1-11		-4.9
122	Idaho	-1.9		4.7		6.6			50		1-11		-5.1
123	New Mexico St.	-1.6		5.1		6.7			70		1-11		-5.2
124	Southern Miss	-1.2		4.9		6.1			80		0-12		-5.2