Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Final College Football Rankings and Ratings FBS 2012-2013 Post-Bowl by SportPundit

Final College Football Rankings and Ratings 2012-2013 FBS Post-Bowl by SportPundit & YPPSYS, Yards Per Play System

Six SEC teams are in the top 10. That pretty much sums up this season.

Teams below are color-coded by conference -- the selected color was random.
The color-coding of the rankings shows quickly that teams from the same conference tend to "clump" together, thus making the relative general strength (or weakness) of any conference more visible.
 
These are the season-ending post-bowl ratings and rankings based on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation of the schedule difficulty. The inclusion of FCS teams in scheduling makes calculation of the strength of schedule difficult and the strength of FCS teams is an approximation. Sagarin USA Today schedule difficulty ratings are used to assist in calculating schedule difficulty here, but we add some subjective judgments and a special formula to handle schedule difficulty, whereby for this final ranking and rating  we subtract from the NAYPPA 2 x the schedule difficulty up to 50  and 3 x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up minus .2 for every loss. It is still a bit unwieldy and we hope to improve this system next year.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA two years ago but lost a game. According to this yards-per-play standard, this year's Alabama team would be ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant. The yards per play on offense has increased somewhat in the last couple of years after FBS teams started scheduling weaker FCS teams. The weaker an opponent the better the NAYPPA stat usually becomes, hence one has to adjust for schedule difficulty, which is not easy to do, especially given the law of diminishing returns in terms of yards-per-play advantage and weakness of the opposing team.

We get the yards-per-play stats that we use from the college or university online football websites that are linked below under "yards per play offense" or from cfbstats.com, a website with loads of college football statistics.


THE 2012-2013 Post-Bowl SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS 

2012
-2013
Sport
Pundit
Rank
AFTER
The Bowl Games
TEAM FBS
color-coded by conference
NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense

yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (this is our calculation based on various sources including our own rankings)


W-L
record
2012
-2013
incl.
bowl
games

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

1 
Alabama
2.8
7.0
4.2

50
13-1
+1.6
2
Oregon 1.7
6.6
4.9

50
12-1
+0.5

3 Texas A&M 1.9
7.1
5.2

50

11-2

+0.5

4 Georgia
1.9
7.1
5.2

50
12-2
+0.5
5 Notre Dame 1.2
6.0
4.8

50
12-1
+0.0
6 Ohio State
1.0
6.1
5.1

50
12-0
+0.0
7
South Carolina
1.1

5.7
4.6

50
11-2
-0.3
8 Florida 0.9
5.3
4.4

50
11-2
-0.5
9Stanford
0.8
5.5
4.7

50
12-2
-0.6
10 LSU
1.0
5.5
4.5

50
10-3
-0.6
11 Florida State
3.1
7.0
3.9

110
12-2
-0.6

12 Kansas State 0.8
6.2
5.4

50
11-2
-0.6
13 Clemson 0.6
6.3
5.7

50
11-2
-0.8
14 Nebraska 1.0
6.2
5.2

50
10-4
-0.8
15 Michigan
1.2
6.1
4.9

50
8-5
-0.8
16 Oklahoma
0.7
6.4
5.7

50
10-3
-0.9
17 USC
1.3
6.6
5.3

50
7-6
-0.9
18 Oregon State 0.8
5.9
5.1

50
9-4
-1.0
19 Wisconsin
1.2

6.0
4.8


50

8-6

-1.0

20
Baylor
0.9
6.9
6.0


50

8-5

-1.1

21 Utah State
2.5
6.8
4.3


110

11-2

-1.2

22 Texas 0.4
6.3
5.9

50
9-4
-1.4
23 Northwestern 0.1
5.3
5.2

50
10-3
-1.5
24 San Jose St. 1.3
6.4
5.1

80
11-2
-1.5

25
UCLA 0.4
6.0
5.6

50
9-5
-1.6
26 Boise State 1.2

5.8
4.6

80
11-2
-1.6
27 Vanderbilt
0.9
5.7
4.8

60
9-4
-1.7
28 Arizona State
1.2
6.0
4.8


65
8-5
-1.7
29 Arizona 0.3 6.3
6.0

50
8-5

-1.7
30 Oklahoma State 1.7
7.0
5.3

80
8-5
-1.7
31 Texas Tech 1.1
6.5
5.4

60
8-5
-1.7
32 Syracuse 0.3
6.0
5.7

50
8-5
-1.7
33 Mississippi 0.4
5.9
5.5

50
7-6
-1.8
34 Louisville 0.6
5.9
5.3

70
11-2
-1.9
35 BYU 0.8
5.2
4.4

60
8-5
-2.0
36 Cincinnati
1.3
6.6
5.3

90
10-3
-2.0
37 Louisiana Tech
0.1
6.6
6.5

55
9-3
-2.0
38 Penn State
0.5
5.4
4.9

60
8-4
-2.1
39 Michigan State 0.7
5.0
4.3

55
7-6
-2.1
40 TCU
0.6
5.5
4.9

60
7-6
-2.1
41 West Virginia 0.2
6.5
6.3

55
7-6
-2.1
42 Mississippi St.
0.4

5.9
5.5


55

8-5

-2.2

43 Arkansas 0.4
6.1
5.7

50
4-8
-2.2
44 North Carolina
1.3
6.5
5.2

90
8-4
-2.2
45 Pittsburgh 0.8
5.7
4.9

55
6-7
-2.2
46 Miami (Florida)
0.4
6.5
6.1

55
7-5
-2.3
47 Virginia Tech
0.4
5.2
4.8

55
7-6
-2.3
48 Georgia Tech
0.5
6.2
5.7

55
7-7
-2.3

49 North. Illinois
1.7
6.4
4.7

120
12-2
-2.3
50 
Rutgers 0.6
5.2
4.6

70
9-4
-2.3
51 Washington
-0.3
5.1
5.4

50
7-6
-2.5
52
Arkansas State 1.0
6.4
5.4

100
10-3
-2.6

53 Fresno State
1.5
6.2
4.7

110
9-4
-2.6
54 San Diego State
0.6
5.8
5.2

80
9-4
-2.6
55 Missouri
-0.6
4.9
5.5

35
5-7
-2.7
56 Tennessee 0.3
6.4
6.1

60
5-7
-2.7
57 Tulsa
0.6
5.5
4.9

90
11-3
-2.7
58 California
0.1
5.8
5.7

50
3-9
-2.7
59 Minnesota -0.4
4.9
5.3

50
6-7
-2.8
60
Utah
-0.4
4.9
5.3

50
5-7
-2.8
61 UCF
1.0
6.1
5.1

100
10-4
-2.8
62 Kent State 0.2
5.8
5.6


80
11-3
-2.8
63
Louis.-Lafayette
0.9
6.8
5.9

100
9-4
-2.9
64 Navy 0.1
5.9
5.8

70
8-5
-3.0
65
Iowa State -0.6
5.1
5.7

50
6-7
-3.0
66 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.2

5.7
5.9


60

8-5

-3.0
67 Virginia
0.2
5.3
5.1

55
4-8
-3.1
68 Connecticut 0.3
4.8
4.5

70
5-7
-3.2
69 West. Kentucky
0.7
6.0
5.3

90
7-6
-3.2
70 N.C. State
-0.3
5.2
5.5

60
7-6
-3.3
71 Mid. Tennessee -0.3
5.8
6.1

75
8-4
-3.3
72 Ball State 
-0.6
5.7
6.3

65
9-4
-3.4
73 Auburn
-0.7
5.3
6.0

50
3-9
-3.5
74 Toledo
-0.5
6.0
6.5

75
9-4
-3.5
75 Purdue -0.2
5.5
5.7

65
6-7
-3.5
76 Air Force
0.0 5.8
5.8

70
6-7
-3.5
77 Nevada
0.3
6.2
5.9

85
7-6
-3.5
78 Bowling Green 0.6
5.3
4.7

105
8-5
-3.5
79 Ohio
0.4
5.8
5.4

105

9-4

-3.5

80 Duke -1.2
5.3
6.5

50
6-7
-3.6
81 Indiana -0.4
5.7
6.1

55
4-8
-3.6
82 Iowa
-0.8

4.7
5.5

50
4-8
-3.6
83 Washington St. -0.8
4.9
5.7

50
3-9
-3.6
84 Kentucky -0.7
4.8
5.5

50
2-10
-3.7
85 SMU
-0.2
5.2
5.4

75
7-6
-3.7
86 East Carolina -0.3
5.6
5.9

85
8-5
-3.9
87 Maryland -0.6
4.4
5.0

60
4-8
-4.0
88  
Cent. Michigan 
0.2
6.2
6.0

100
7-6
-4.0
89 Temple
-1.1
5.1
6.3

55
4-7
-4.1

90 South Florida -0.3
5.6
5.7

65
3-9
-4.1
91 Houston
0.2
5.8
5.6

100
5-7
-4.2
92 Boston College -0.5
5.1
5.6

55
2-10
-4.2
93 Marshall 
0.1
5.9
5.8

100
5-7
-4.3
94 
Buffalo 0.0
5.2
5.2

90
4-8
-4.3
95  
West. Michigan
0.2
5.8
5.6

100

4-8
-4.4
96 Colorado State
-0.1
5.4
5.5

90
4-8
-4.4
97 Wake Forest -1.4
4.4
5.8

55
5-7
-4.5
98 Troy -0.1
6.2
6.3

100
5-7
-4.5
99 Rice -1.1
5.4
6.5

75
7-6
-4.6
100
UTSA
-0.2
5.8
6.0

120
8-4
-4.6
101
North Texas -0.6
5.5
6.1

80
4-8
-4.6
102 UTEP 
-0.7
5.4
6.1

70
3-9
-4.6
103 Fl. Int'l FIU 
-0.2
5.4
5.6

90
3-9
-4.7
104 Illinois
-1.3
4.5
5.8

55
2-10
-4.9
105 
Kansas
-1.8
5.0
6.8

50
1-11
-5.0
106 Wyoming
-0.7
5.5
6.2

90
4-8
-5.0
107
Texas State
-0.6
5.9
6.5

95
4-8
-5.0
108
Memphis
-0.4
5.0
5.4

100
4-8
-5.0
109 Army -1.0
5.7
6.7

70
2-10
-5.1
110
East. Michigan 
-1.4
5.3
6.7

55
2-10
-5.1
111 Miami (Ohio) -0.8
5.5
6.3

85
4-8
-5.1
112
Hawaii
-1.1
4.3
5.4

75
3-9
-5.1
113
UNLV
-0.8
5.2
6.0

75
2-11
-5.2
114 
Florida Atlantic 
-1.1
5.1
6.2

80
3-9
-5.4
115
New Mexico -1.1
5.7
6.8

120
4-9
-5.5
116 Tulane
-1.7
4.7
6.4

60
2-10
-5.5
117 UAB
-0.6

5.6
6.2


105

3-9

-5.5

118
South Alabama
-1.0
4.6
5.6

80
2-11
-5.6
119 Idaho -1.9
4.7
6.6

55
1-11
-5.7
120 Colorado -2.7
4.4
7.1

50
1-11
-5.9
121 Akron 
-0.6
5.4
6.0

105
1-11
-5.9
122 New Mexico St. -1.6 5.1
6.7

90

1-11

-6.5
123
Southern Miss -1.2
4.9
6.1

80
0-12
-6.0
124
Massachusetts
-2.5
3.9
6.4

70
1-11
-6.8






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