College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2013 Season for the 2013-2014 Bowls, by SportPundit
The BCS bowl matchups this year on the whole are excellent, so that most games should provide competitive contests.
Our stats for the season after Week 15 are 625-184 (77.3%) in calling the winner and 389-324-11 (54.6%) against the spread.
Below are our College Football Predictions for the Bowl Games, including the Week 16, 2013 Army-Navy Game, relying
on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 15 of the 2013 Season.
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out
of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our
material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact
outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes
it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the
consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis,
links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the
best team win.
YPPSYS means "yards per play system",
as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.
At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about
7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not
absolute, given home field advantages, etc.
The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for the bowl games used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark as of Monday, December 9, 2013.
Note that the lines can and often
do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes
once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own
NEW NOTICE: Please note that our rating system provides primarily a good idea concerning the relative strength of teams, but does not take into account many variables that determine individual game results, such as matchups of passing and rushing offenses and defenses, turnovers, kicking and special teams, conference strengths, traditional rivalries, player status, and other factors affecting coach and player motivation that often determine outcomes. Our predictions could be improved over our simple system, but that would turn out to be a job, whereas this is just for fun. Enjoy the pageantry of the games! Fans! Do not be so concerned about the winner. ENJOY! Life goes on.
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Army vs. Navy
at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The Midshipmen are favored over the Black Knights by 10 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Navy. Our stats rank Navy at -2.5 rating points and Army at -5.0 rating points. A difference of 2.5 rating points x 7 = 17.5 scoreboard points.
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Washington State vs. Colorado State
at University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
The Cougars are favored over the Rams? by 3 points.
Our call: 38-31 for Washington State. Our stats rate the Cougars at -2.0 rating points and the Rams at -3.7 rating points, so that 1.7 x 7 = 11.9 scoreboard points. Washington State has the passing edge, the Rams the rushing edge. One must recall that Colorado State lost only 31-6 to Alabama.
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Fresno State vs. USC
at Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
The Trojans are favored over the Bulldogs by 6 points.
Our call: 35-27 for USC. Our stats rate the Trojans at -0.6 and the Bulldogs at -1.8 rating points, so that 1.2 x 7 = 8.4 scoreboard points. Given the head coaching changes at Southern Cal, this is a tough one to call.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Buffalo vs. San Diego State
at Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Bulls are favored over the Aztecs by 2 points.
Our call: 27-24 for San Diego State. Our stats rate the Bulls at -3.0 and the Aztecs at -2.5 rating points, so that 0.5 x 7 = 3.5 scoreboard points. The Aztecs had 4 overtime games this year, winning 3 of them. Buffalo is a vastly improved team over the previous season. A close one here too?
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Tulane vs. Louisiana Lafayette (ULL)
at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
The Green Wave are favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 1 point.
Our call: 27-24 for Tulane. Our stats rate the Owls at -3.6 and the Ragin' Cajuns at -3.1 rating points, so that 0.5 x 7 = 3.5 scoreboard points. LA Lafayette lost their last two games of the season, presumably in part due to a broken bone in the throwing forearm of their quarterback, Terrance Broadway, while Tulane lost three of their last four, although Curtis Johnson in his second year as head coach of the Owls has made great strides with the team. With Broadway surgically operated in the interim and uncertain for this bowl game, we go with Tulane.
Monday, December 23, 2013
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg
East Carolina vs. Ohio
at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
The Pirates are favored over the Bobcats by 13 points.
Our call: 35-24 for East Carolina. Our stats rate the Pirates at -2.2 and the Bobcats at -3.8 rating points, so that 1.6 x 7 = 11.2 scoreboard points.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Boise State vs. Oregon State
at Aloha Stadium, Hawaiian Airlines Field, Honolulu, Hawaii
The Broncos are favored over the Beavers by 4.5 points.
Our call: 38-35 for Oregon State. Our stats rate the Broncos at -2.1 and the Beavers at -2.2 rating points, so that 0.1 x 7 = 0.7 scoreboard points. Bronco Chris Petersen is the new head coach at Washington. Facing stiff Pac-12 opposition, the Beavers lost their last five games, the last only 36-35 to Oregon. The Beavers throw the nation's 3rd best passing offense at the Broncos, who succumbed 41-40 earlier in the year to the nation's top passing offense at Fresno State. We give the edge to the Beavers' Sean Mannion here.
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green
at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Falcons are favored over the Panthers by 6 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Pittsburgh. Our stats rate the Panthers at -2.9 and the Falcons at -2.0 rating points, so that 0.9 x 7 = 6.3 scoreboard points. Pitt beat Notre Dame this year and remain unpredictable. They may be motivated to show that a MAC team can not beat them, even though head coach Dave Clawson is moving the Falcon program forward fast.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
The Huskies are favored over the Aggies by 2.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Northern Illinois. Our stats rate the Aggies at -2.5 and the Huskies at -2.1 rating points, so that 0.4 x 7 = 2.8 scoreboard points.
Friday, December 27, 2013
Military Bowl - Presented by Northrop Grumman
Marshall vs. Maryland
at Navy-Marine Corps Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
The Thundering Herd are favored over the Terrapins by 3 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Maryland. Our stats rate the Thundering Herd at -2.2 and the Terrapins at -3.0 rating points, so that 0.8 x 7 = 5.6 scoreboard points. However, the Marshall loss to Rice 41-24 in the C-USA championship game indicates that the team is not yet where it may be in the future.
Syracuse vs. Minnesota
at Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
The Golden Gophers are favored over the Orange by 4.5 points.
Our call: 30-24 for Minnesota. Our stats rate the Orange at -3.0 and the Golden Gophers at -2.2 rating points, so that 0.8 x 7 = 5.6 scoreboard points.
Fight Hunger Bowl
BYU vs. Washington
at AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
The Huskies are favored over the Cougars by 3 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Washington. Our stats rate the Cougars at -1.8 and the Huskies at -0.5 rating points, so that 1.3 x 7 = 9.1 scoreboard points. Washington's Steve Sarkisian has been named the new USC had coach, so this game is uncertain.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame
at Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
The Fighting Irish are favored over the Scarlet Knights by 17.5 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Notre Dame. Our stats rate the Scarlet Knights at -3.6 and the Fighting Irish at -1.5 rating points, so that 2.1 x 7 = 14.7 scoreboard points.
Cincinnati vs. North Carolina
at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Tar Heels are favored over the Bearcats by 2 points.
Our call: 28-27 for Cincinnati. Our stats rate the Bearcats at -2.2 and the Tar Heels at -2.3 rating points, so that 0.1 x 7 = 0.7 scoreboard points.
Russell Athletic Bowl
Miami of Florida vs. Louisville
at Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
The Cardinals are favored over the Hurricanes by 3 points.
Our call: 36-27 for Louisville. Our stats rate the Hurricanes at -2.3 and the Cardinals at -1.0 rating points, so that 1.3 x 7 = 9.1 scoreboard points.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Michigan vs. Kansas State
at Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe (Phoenix), Arizona
The Wildcats are favored over the Wolverines by 3 points.
Our call: 26-24 for Michigan. Our stats rate the Wolverines at -1.5 and the Wildcats at -1.8 rating points, so that 0.3 x 7 = 2.1 scoreboard points.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Middle Tennessee vs. Navy
at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
The Midshipmen are favored over the Blue Raiders by 7 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Navy. Our stats rate the Blue Raiders at -3.1 and the Midshipmen at -2.5 rating points, so that 0.6 x 7 = 4.2 scoreboard points.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi vs. Georgia Tech
at LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee
The Rebels are favored over the Yellow Jackets by 4 points.
Our call: 31-28 for Mississippi. Our stats rate Ole Miss at -1.8 and the Yellow Jackets at -2.3 rating points, so that 0.5 x 7 = 3.5 scoreboard points.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oregon vs. Texas
at Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
The Ducks are favored over the Longhorns by 14 points.
Our call: 37-21 for Oregon. Our stats rate the Ducks at +0.4 and the Longhorns at -1.8 rating points, so that 2.2 x 7 = 15.4 scoreboard points.
National University Holiday Bowl
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
The Sun Devils are favored over the Red Raiders by 13 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Arizona State. Our stats rate the Sun Devils at -0.4 and the Red Raiders at -2.3 rating points, so that 1.9 x 7 = 13.3 scoreboard points.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Arizona vs. Boston College
at Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
The Wildcats are favored over the Eagles by 7 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Arizona. Our stats rate the Wildcats at -2.1 and the Eagles at -2.5 rating points, so that 0.4 x 7 = 2.8 scoreboard points.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. UCLA
at Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
The Bruins are favored over the Hokies by 7 points.
Our call: 27-17 for UCLA. Our stats rate the Hokies at -1.9 and the Bruins at -0.5 rating points, so that 1.4 x 7 = 9.8 scoreboard points.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Rice vs. Mississippi State
at Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tennessee
The Bulldogs are favored over the Owls by 7.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Mississippi State. Our stats rate the Owls at -2.2 and the Bulldogs at -1.8 rating points, so that 0.4 x 7 = 2.8 scoreboard points.
Duke vs. Texas A&M
at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
The Aggies are favored over the Blue Devils by 13 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Texas A&M. Our stats rate the Blue Devils at -2.3 and the Aggies at -0.7 rating points, so that 1.6 x 7 = 11.2 scoreboard points.
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
Nebraska vs. Georgia
at EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
The Bulldogs are favored over the Huskers by 9.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Georgia. Our stats rate the Cornhuskers at -2.2 and the Dawgs at -0.3 rating points, so that 1.9 x 7 = 13.3 scoreboard points.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Presented by Plainscapital Bank
UNLV vs. North Texas
at Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas
The Mean Green are favored over the Rebels by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for North Texas. Our stats rate the Rebels at -3.4 and the Mean Green at -3.0 rating points, so that 0.4 x 7 = 2.8 scoreboard points.
Iowa vs. LSU
at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
The Tigers are favored over the Hawkeyes by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-23 for LSU. Our stats rate the Hawkeyes at -1.8 and the Tigers at +0.4 rating points, so that 2.2 x 7 = 15.4 scoreboard points.
Capital One Bowl
Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
at Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
The Badgers are favored over the Gamecocks by 2 points.
Our call: 27-24 for South Carolina. Our stats rate the Badgers at -0.6 and the Gamecocks at -0.4 rating points, so that 0.2 x 7 = 1.4 scoreboard points.
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Vizio
Stanford vs. Michigan State
at Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
The Cardinal are favored over the Spartans by 3.5 points.
Our call: 21-17 for Stanford. Our stats rate the Cardinal at +0.4 and the Spartans at +0.4 rating points, so that 0.0 x 7 = 0.0 scoreboard points.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
UCF (Central Florida) vs. Baylor
at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
The Bears are favored over the Knights by 16.5 points.
Our call: 40-34 for Baylor. Our stats rate the Knights at -1.0 and the Bears at -0.2 rating points, so that 0.8 x 7 = 5.6 scoreboard points.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Alabama
at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The Crimson Tide are favored over the Sooners by 16 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Alabama. Our stats rate the Sooners at -1.0 and the Crimson Tide at +1.3 rating points, so that 2.3 x 7 = 16.1 scoreboard points.
Friday, January 3, 2014
AT&T Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Tigers are favored over the Cowboys by 1.5 points.
Our call: 35-27 for Missouri. Our stats rate the Cowboys at -1.0 and the Tigers at +0.2 rating points, so that 1.2 x 7 = 8.4 scoreboard points.
Discover Orange Bowl
Clemson vs. Ohio State
at Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
The Buckeyes are favored over the Tigers by 4 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Ohio State. Our stats rate the Tigers at -0.7 and the Buckeyes at -0.2 rating points, so that 0.5 x 7 = 3.5 scoreboard points.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
BBVA Compass Bowl
Vanderbilt vs. Houston
at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
The Commodores are favored over the Cougars by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Vanderbilt. Our stats rate the Commodores at -1.8 and the Cougars at -2.3 rating points, so that 0.5 x 7 = 3.5 scoreboard points.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Arkansas State vs. Ball State
at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
The Cardinals are favored over the Red Wolves by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-27 for Ball State. Our stats rate the Red Wolves at -3.8 and the Cardinals at -2.6 rating points, so that 1.2 x 7 = 8.4 scoreboard points.
Monday, January 6, 2014
Vizio BCS National Championship
Florida State vs. Auburn
at Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
The Seminoles are favored over the Tigers by 6.5 points.
Our call: 40-31 for Florida State. Our stats rate the Seminoles at +1.7 and the Tigers at +0.4 rating points, so that 1.3 x 7 = 9.1 scoreboard points. There is no question that the Seminoles field a team filled with numerous top players and that the talent is on their side. They face one of the most creative innovative head coaches in the game, and we have long been Malzahn fans, so that the outcome here could be close, even if Florida State seems to have the best team. Barring another Malzahn Miracle, however, Florida State should appear to be the clear favorite to win this game.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
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