Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Super Bowl 47 a Harbaugh Family Affair Between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens

No one will forget this Super Bowl
because of the obvious alternative names:
Bros Bowl, Harbowl, SuperBaugh,
and surely more to come.

See
Super Bowl 47 at NFL.com

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Final College Football Rankings and Ratings FBS 2012-2013 Post-Bowl by SportPundit

Final College Football Rankings and Ratings 2012-2013 FBS Post-Bowl by SportPundit & YPPSYS, Yards Per Play System

Six SEC teams are in the top 10. That pretty much sums up this season.

Teams below are color-coded by conference -- the selected color was random.
The color-coding of the rankings shows quickly that teams from the same conference tend to "clump" together, thus making the relative general strength (or weakness) of any conference more visible.
 
These are the season-ending post-bowl ratings and rankings based on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation of the schedule difficulty. The inclusion of FCS teams in scheduling makes calculation of the strength of schedule difficult and the strength of FCS teams is an approximation. Sagarin USA Today schedule difficulty ratings are used to assist in calculating schedule difficulty here, but we add some subjective judgments and a special formula to handle schedule difficulty, whereby for this final ranking and rating  we subtract from the NAYPPA 2 x the schedule difficulty up to 50  and 3 x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up minus .2 for every loss. It is still a bit unwieldy and we hope to improve this system next year.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA two years ago but lost a game. According to this yards-per-play standard, this year's Alabama team would be ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant. The yards per play on offense has increased somewhat in the last couple of years after FBS teams started scheduling weaker FCS teams. The weaker an opponent the better the NAYPPA stat usually becomes, hence one has to adjust for schedule difficulty, which is not easy to do, especially given the law of diminishing returns in terms of yards-per-play advantage and weakness of the opposing team.

We get the yards-per-play stats that we use from the college or university online football websites that are linked below under "yards per play offense" or from cfbstats.com, a website with loads of college football statistics.


THE 2012-2013 Post-Bowl SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS 

2012
-2013
Sport
Pundit
Rank
AFTER
The Bowl Games
TEAM FBS
color-coded by conference
NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense

yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (this is our calculation based on various sources including our own rankings)


W-L
record
2012
-2013
incl.
bowl
games

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

1 
Alabama
2.8
7.0
4.2

50
13-1
+1.6
2
Oregon 1.7
6.6
4.9

50
12-1
+0.5

3 Texas A&M 1.9
7.1
5.2

50

11-2

+0.5

4 Georgia
1.9
7.1
5.2

50
12-2
+0.5
5 Notre Dame 1.2
6.0
4.8

50
12-1
+0.0
6 Ohio State
1.0
6.1
5.1

50
12-0
+0.0
7
South Carolina
1.1

5.7
4.6

50
11-2
-0.3
8 Florida 0.9
5.3
4.4

50
11-2
-0.5
9Stanford
0.8
5.5
4.7

50
12-2
-0.6
10 LSU
1.0
5.5
4.5

50
10-3
-0.6
11 Florida State
3.1
7.0
3.9

110
12-2
-0.6

12 Kansas State 0.8
6.2
5.4

50
11-2
-0.6
13 Clemson 0.6
6.3
5.7

50
11-2
-0.8
14 Nebraska 1.0
6.2
5.2

50
10-4
-0.8
15 Michigan
1.2
6.1
4.9

50
8-5
-0.8
16 Oklahoma
0.7
6.4
5.7

50
10-3
-0.9
17 USC
1.3
6.6
5.3

50
7-6
-0.9
18 Oregon State 0.8
5.9
5.1

50
9-4
-1.0
19 Wisconsin
1.2

6.0
4.8


50

8-6

-1.0

20
Baylor
0.9
6.9
6.0


50

8-5

-1.1

21 Utah State
2.5
6.8
4.3


110

11-2

-1.2

22 Texas 0.4
6.3
5.9

50
9-4
-1.4
23 Northwestern 0.1
5.3
5.2

50
10-3
-1.5
24 San Jose St. 1.3
6.4
5.1

80
11-2
-1.5

25
UCLA 0.4
6.0
5.6

50
9-5
-1.6
26 Boise State 1.2

5.8
4.6

80
11-2
-1.6
27 Vanderbilt
0.9
5.7
4.8

60
9-4
-1.7
28 Arizona State
1.2
6.0
4.8


65
8-5
-1.7
29 Arizona 0.3 6.3
6.0

50
8-5

-1.7
30 Oklahoma State 1.7
7.0
5.3

80
8-5
-1.7
31 Texas Tech 1.1
6.5
5.4

60
8-5
-1.7
32 Syracuse 0.3
6.0
5.7

50
8-5
-1.7
33 Mississippi 0.4
5.9
5.5

50
7-6
-1.8
34 Louisville 0.6
5.9
5.3

70
11-2
-1.9
35 BYU 0.8
5.2
4.4

60
8-5
-2.0
36 Cincinnati
1.3
6.6
5.3

90
10-3
-2.0
37 Louisiana Tech
0.1
6.6
6.5

55
9-3
-2.0
38 Penn State
0.5
5.4
4.9

60
8-4
-2.1
39 Michigan State 0.7
5.0
4.3

55
7-6
-2.1
40 TCU
0.6
5.5
4.9

60
7-6
-2.1
41 West Virginia 0.2
6.5
6.3

55
7-6
-2.1
42 Mississippi St.
0.4

5.9
5.5


55

8-5

-2.2

43 Arkansas 0.4
6.1
5.7

50
4-8
-2.2
44 North Carolina
1.3
6.5
5.2

90
8-4
-2.2
45 Pittsburgh 0.8
5.7
4.9

55
6-7
-2.2
46 Miami (Florida)
0.4
6.5
6.1

55
7-5
-2.3
47 Virginia Tech
0.4
5.2
4.8

55
7-6
-2.3
48 Georgia Tech
0.5
6.2
5.7

55
7-7
-2.3

49 North. Illinois
1.7
6.4
4.7

120
12-2
-2.3
50 
Rutgers 0.6
5.2
4.6

70
9-4
-2.3
51 Washington
-0.3
5.1
5.4

50
7-6
-2.5
52
Arkansas State 1.0
6.4
5.4

100
10-3
-2.6

53 Fresno State
1.5
6.2
4.7

110
9-4
-2.6
54 San Diego State
0.6
5.8
5.2

80
9-4
-2.6
55 Missouri
-0.6
4.9
5.5

35
5-7
-2.7
56 Tennessee 0.3
6.4
6.1

60
5-7
-2.7
57 Tulsa
0.6
5.5
4.9

90
11-3
-2.7
58 California
0.1
5.8
5.7

50
3-9
-2.7
59 Minnesota -0.4
4.9
5.3

50
6-7
-2.8
60
Utah
-0.4
4.9
5.3

50
5-7
-2.8
61 UCF
1.0
6.1
5.1

100
10-4
-2.8
62 Kent State 0.2
5.8
5.6


80
11-3
-2.8
63
Louis.-Lafayette
0.9
6.8
5.9

100
9-4
-2.9
64 Navy 0.1
5.9
5.8

70
8-5
-3.0
65
Iowa State -0.6
5.1
5.7

50
6-7
-3.0
66 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.2

5.7
5.9


60

8-5

-3.0
67 Virginia
0.2
5.3
5.1

55
4-8
-3.1
68 Connecticut 0.3
4.8
4.5

70
5-7
-3.2
69 West. Kentucky
0.7
6.0
5.3

90
7-6
-3.2
70 N.C. State
-0.3
5.2
5.5

60
7-6
-3.3
71 Mid. Tennessee -0.3
5.8
6.1

75
8-4
-3.3
72 Ball State 
-0.6
5.7
6.3

65
9-4
-3.4
73 Auburn
-0.7
5.3
6.0

50
3-9
-3.5
74 Toledo
-0.5
6.0
6.5

75
9-4
-3.5
75 Purdue -0.2
5.5
5.7

65
6-7
-3.5
76 Air Force
0.0 5.8
5.8

70
6-7
-3.5
77 Nevada
0.3
6.2
5.9

85
7-6
-3.5
78 Bowling Green 0.6
5.3
4.7

105
8-5
-3.5
79 Ohio
0.4
5.8
5.4

105

9-4

-3.5

80 Duke -1.2
5.3
6.5

50
6-7
-3.6
81 Indiana -0.4
5.7
6.1

55
4-8
-3.6
82 Iowa
-0.8

4.7
5.5

50
4-8
-3.6
83 Washington St. -0.8
4.9
5.7

50
3-9
-3.6
84 Kentucky -0.7
4.8
5.5

50
2-10
-3.7
85 SMU
-0.2
5.2
5.4

75
7-6
-3.7
86 East Carolina -0.3
5.6
5.9

85
8-5
-3.9
87 Maryland -0.6
4.4
5.0

60
4-8
-4.0
88  
Cent. Michigan 
0.2
6.2
6.0

100
7-6
-4.0
89 Temple
-1.1
5.1
6.3

55
4-7
-4.1

90 South Florida -0.3
5.6
5.7

65
3-9
-4.1
91 Houston
0.2
5.8
5.6

100
5-7
-4.2
92 Boston College -0.5
5.1
5.6

55
2-10
-4.2
93 Marshall 
0.1
5.9
5.8

100
5-7
-4.3
94 
Buffalo 0.0
5.2
5.2

90
4-8
-4.3
95  
West. Michigan
0.2
5.8
5.6

100

4-8
-4.4
96 Colorado State
-0.1
5.4
5.5

90
4-8
-4.4
97 Wake Forest -1.4
4.4
5.8

55
5-7
-4.5
98 Troy -0.1
6.2
6.3

100
5-7
-4.5
99 Rice -1.1
5.4
6.5

75
7-6
-4.6
100
UTSA
-0.2
5.8
6.0

120
8-4
-4.6
101
North Texas -0.6
5.5
6.1

80
4-8
-4.6
102 UTEP 
-0.7
5.4
6.1

70
3-9
-4.6
103 Fl. Int'l FIU 
-0.2
5.4
5.6

90
3-9
-4.7
104 Illinois
-1.3
4.5
5.8

55
2-10
-4.9
105 
Kansas
-1.8
5.0
6.8

50
1-11
-5.0
106 Wyoming
-0.7
5.5
6.2

90
4-8
-5.0
107
Texas State
-0.6
5.9
6.5

95
4-8
-5.0
108
Memphis
-0.4
5.0
5.4

100
4-8
-5.0
109 Army -1.0
5.7
6.7

70
2-10
-5.1
110
East. Michigan 
-1.4
5.3
6.7

55
2-10
-5.1
111 Miami (Ohio) -0.8
5.5
6.3

85
4-8
-5.1
112
Hawaii
-1.1
4.3
5.4

75
3-9
-5.1
113
UNLV
-0.8
5.2
6.0

75
2-11
-5.2
114 
Florida Atlantic 
-1.1
5.1
6.2

80
3-9
-5.4
115
New Mexico -1.1
5.7
6.8

120
4-9
-5.5
116 Tulane
-1.7
4.7
6.4

60
2-10
-5.5
117 UAB
-0.6

5.6
6.2


105

3-9

-5.5

118
South Alabama
-1.0
4.6
5.6

80
2-11
-5.6
119 Idaho -1.9
4.7
6.6

55
1-11
-5.7
120 Colorado -2.7
4.4
7.1

50
1-11
-5.9
121 Akron 
-0.6
5.4
6.0

105
1-11
-5.9
122 New Mexico St. -1.6 5.1
6.7

90

1-11

-6.5
123
Southern Miss -1.2
4.9
6.1

80
0-12
-6.0
124
Massachusetts
-2.5
3.9
6.4

70
1-11
-6.8






Bowl Game Prediction RESULTS for 2012-2013 by SportPundit and YPPSYS for FBS & BCS College Football Bowls

 Update:

The initial good news is that we picked Alabama as the national champion in our preseason rankings and that is how the season actually turned out. 

The bad news is that we had a disappointing bowl season of game predictions, as we were only 19-17 in predicting the game winner, and went 12-22-2 against the line and 13-22-1 against the average CFPT spread, as underdogs won more games than expected and most of the games that we called contrary to our own YPPSYS stats for sentimental reasons (i.e. schools in the family such as Nebraska and Michigan) did not go that way. The lesson here was to stick with our system, and we would have come out much better.

The good news is  that we nevertheless finished the season ahead,
going 628-183 in calling the winner, 365-354-13 against the line and 278-269-1 against the CFPT average computer spread for the ten weeks that we kept track + bowl games.

Our final rankings and ratings for the 2012-2013 FBS college football season will be found at this link once we get them calculated, and those rankings and ratings will serve as our basis for the first game predictions next football season about nine months from now. Next in line of course will be March Madness 2013! See you there.

______________________


Bowl Game Prediction RESULTS 2012-2013 by SportPundit and YPPSYS for FBS College Football Bowls
(updated lines as of December 16, 2012, 9:22:34 AM, and CFPT average computer spread added, results updated regularly as scores come in)

Our predictions this week rely on our Final College Football Rankings 2012 FBS at the End of the Regular Season but Pre-Bowl by SportPundit and YPPSYS, the Yards Per Play System. The odds, "line" or "spread" as well as the CFPT average computer spread are found at the College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") Yahoo Sports Odds, Odds Shark, and Maddux Sports.

For the 2012 regular season we were 609-166 (79%) in calling the winner,
and 353-332-11 against the line (ATS, against the spread)
and we were 265-247 against the CFPT average computer spread
for the ten weeks that we kept track. Predicting the bowl games is more difficult, because bowls generally take place many weeks after the regular season final game for most teams, so that new factors come into play.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

The visiting team is listed first, then the home team
e.g. Team A (visitor) v. Team B (home): B is favored by X points




BOWL GAME PREDICTIONS 2012-2013
by SportPundit
via YPPSYS, the Yards Per Play SystemBowl Schedule via The Quad, New York Times

Saturday, December 8, 2012,


ARMY-NAVY game, 3:00 p.m. EST
Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights. The Midshipmen were favored by 7 points.
Our call
: 41-27 for Navy.
Navy - ranked 66th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.0
Army - ranked 116th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -4.4.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = -13.12 points (if plus this favors the home team, if minus it favors the visitor).
Result: Navy won 17-13, although the 8-4 Midshipmen were outgained surprisingly by the 2-10 Black Knights 418 to 297 yards, as Army rushed for 370 yards, 156 of those by Raymond Maples, but Army lost 3 fumbles and that was the ball game.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 1-0 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 0-1 against the average CFPT spread.


Saturday, December 15, 2012 

Gildan New Mexico Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico - televized by ESPN

Nevada Wolf Pack v. Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats were favored by 8 points.
Our call
: 40-31 for Arizona.
Nevada- ranked 75th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
Arizona - ranked 33rd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 10.96 points in favor of Arizona.
Result: The Wildcats were in slumber for most of this game and trailed the Wolf Pack 45-28 after 3 quarters and 48-35 with 1:53 to play. Then, in a miraculous finish, Arizona scored a TD with 50 seconds to play, recovered the subsequent online kick, and went in to score again with 30 seconds to play to win 49-48 in an improbable but exciting finish. Nevada outgained Arizona 659 to 578 yards in an offensive duel. Nevada QB Cody Fajardo threw for 256 yards and ran for 140, with RB Stefphon Jefferson rushing for 180 yards. Arizona QB Matt Scott threw for 382 yards and the two game-winning passes in the last two minutes, while Ka'Deem Carey ran for 172 yards. Arizona's Austin Hill had 8 receptions for 175 yards and 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 2-0 in calling the winner and 0-1-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 0-2 against the average CFPT spread.



Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 4:30 p.m. EST
Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho - televized by ESPN
Toledo Rockets v. Utah State Aggies. The Aggies were favored by 9 points.
Our call
: 34-24 for Utah State.
Toledo - ranked 72nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
Utah State - ranked 21st by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 10.40 points in favor of Utah State.
Result: By our reckoning, this game ran truer to expected form than previous "bowl" games, as the Aggies put up a strong 4th quarter to win 41-15 over the Rockets. Utah State's Chuckie Keeton threw for 229 yards and ran for 92, with Kerwynn Williams rushing for 235 yards and 3 TDs on 18 carries. Toledo was outgained 582 to 315 yards, as no Toledo rusher gained more than 50 yards total against a strong Aggie defense, while QB Austin Dantin threw for 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 3-0 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 1-2 against the average CFPT spread.


Thursday, December 20, 2012 

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, 8:00 p.m. EST
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California - televized by ESPN
BYU Cougars v. San Diego State Aztecs. The Cougars are favored by 3 points.
Our call
: 24-23 for San Diego State. BYU has the better defense and the offenses are about equal, but we thought that San Diego State here would have a home advantage in a San Diego stadium.
BYU - ranked 35th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
San Diego State - ranked 48th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.5.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 3.31 points in favor of Brigham Young University.
Result: The home advantage did little to help Aztec QB Adam Dingwell, who turned the ball over 4 times in the 4th quarter to turn a 6-3 3rd quarter lead into a resounding 23-6 loss, as BYU's two All-American players put on a show, with punter Riley Stephenson putting the Aztecs back at their 1, 2 and 3 yard lines on 6 punts inside the 20-yard line, and with linebacker Kyle Van Noy of the Cougars recovering one fumble for one TD and returning an interception for another TD. Only one offensive TD was scored in the game.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 3-1 in calling the winner and 1-3 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 1-3 against the average CFPT spread.


Friday, December 21, 2012 

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg, 7:30 p.m. EST
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida - televized by ESPN
Ball State Cardinals v. UCF Knights. The Knights are favored by 7 points.
Our call
: 26-24 for UCF.
Ball State - ranked 71st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.1
Central Florida - ranked 54th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 3.37 for Central Florida.
Result: The Knights led 28-7 and maintained that margin in a 38-17 win in which Central Florida outgained Ball State 494 to 288 yards, as Blake Bortels threw for 272 yards and 3 TDs and rushed for 80 yards and 1 TD. Ball State's Keith Wenning threw for 217 yards and 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 4-1 in calling the winner and 1-4 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 1-4 against the average CFPT spread.


Saturday, December 22, 2012 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana - televized by ESPN
East Carolina Pirates v. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. The Ragin' Cajuns are favored by 6 points.
Our call
: 34-27 for LA Lafayette.
East Carolina - ranked 84th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.5
LA Lafayette - ranked 58th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 6.54 points in favor of LA Lafayette.
Result: The Ragin' Cajuns emerged as 43-34 victors as Brett Baer, who kicked 3 field goals, iced the game with a 39-yarder with 15 seconds remaining. LA Lafayette outgained the Pirates 591 to 421 yards, as Terrance Broadway threw for 316 yards and rushed for 108 yards, assisted by Alonzo Harris, who ran for 120 yards and 2 TDs. Jamal Robinson led all receivers with 116 yards on 6 receptions.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 5-1 in calling the winner and 2-4 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 2-4 against the average CFPT spread.


MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, 3:30 p.m. EST
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada - televized by ESPN

Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos. The Broncos are favored by 5 points.
Our call
: 27-24 for Boise State.
Washington - ranked 43rd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.3
Boise State - ranked 23rd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -0.9.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 3.04 points in favor of Boise State.
Result: Boise State's Michael Frisina kicked a 27-yard field goal with 1:22 left in the game to beat the Huskies 28-26, as Joe Southwick passed for 264 yards and 2 TDs for the Broncos and Keith Price for 242 yards and 1 TD but 2 interceptions for Washington. Bishop Sankey of the Huskies rushed for 205 yards and 1 TD, as Washington outgained Boise State 447 to 407 yards but lost the turnover battle 3 to 1.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 6-1 in calling the winner and 3-4 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 3-4 against the average CFPT spread.


Monday, December 24, 2012 

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, 8:00 p.m. EST
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii - televized by ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs v. SMU Mustangs. The Bulldogs are favored by 12.5 points.
Our call
: We originally called this 34-21 for Fresno State but go to 35-21 for the Bulldogs to keep from being locked in between the line and the CFPT average spread. Our ratings make Fresno State 1.8 rating points better than the Mustangs, so that 1.8 x 7 actually = 13.6, i.e. closer to 14 than 13.
Fresno State - ranked 45th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.4
SMU - ranked 98th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -3.2.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 13.51 points in favor of Fresno State.
Result: 43-10 for SMU? Who had that on their radar? Mustang head coach and former Hawaii head coach June Jones appears to own Hawaii, as multi-sport Estonian athlete and Mustang defensive end Margus Hunt wrecked the Fresno State offense and earned the MVP honors by forcing two fumbles and tackling Bulldog QB Derek Carr for a safety.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 6-2 in calling the winner and 3-5 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 3-5 against the average CFPT spread.


Wednesday, December 26, 2012 

Little Caesars Bowl, 7:30 p.m. EST
Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan - televized by ESPN

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers v. Central Michigan Chippewas. The Hilltoppers are favored by 5.5 points.
Our call
: 35-27 for Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky - ranked 62nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.9
Central Michigan - ranked 90th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -3.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 7.40 points in favor of Western Kentucky.
Result: The Chippewas upset the Hilltoppers 24-21. Central Michigan outgained Western Kentucky 393 to 327 yards as Ryan Radcliff threw for 3 touchdowns, inlcuding the game winner to Cody Wilson in the 4th quarter. The Hilltoppers' interim coach Lance Guidry, with 51 seconds left in the game and a 4th and 2 at the 19-yard line, went for the 1st down rather than trying to kick a tying field goal. The Hilltoppers' Antonio Andrews, a junior, rushed for 119 yards, caught 3 passes for 21 yards, and returned 2 kicks for 40 yards, but fell 274 yards short of breaking Barry Sander's single-season all-purpose record of 3,250 yards. Andrews will be back under new had coach Bobby Petrino next year. Willie Taggart, head coach of the Hilltoppers in the regular season, was hired earlier in December as the new head coach of the South Florida Bulls.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 6-3 in calling the winner and 3-6 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 3-6 against the average CFPT spread.


Thursday, December 27, 2012 

Military Bowl -- Pres. by Northrop Grumman, 3:00 p.m. EST
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C. - televized by ESPN
San Jose State Spartans v. Bowling Green Falcons. The Spartans are favored by 7 points.
Our call
: 31-21 for San Jose State.
San Jose State - ranked 22nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -0.9
Bowling Green - ranked 76th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -2.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 9.88 points in favor of San Jose State.
Result: The Spartans won 29-20 in a game much closer than score indicates, as San Jose went into the lead 22-20 on an Austin Lopez field goal with only 5:40 left in the game and then scored the clinching TD with 2:34 left on a 1 yard run by De'Leon Eskridge. San Jose State was held to -15 yards rushing, as David Fales had to go to the air for 395 yards and 2 TDs, 9 of those to Noel Grigsby for 134 yards. Matt Schilz of the Falcons passed for 159 yards and John Pettigrew rushed for 59 yards.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 7-3 in calling the winner and 4-6 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 3-7 against the average CFPT spread.


Belk Bowl, 6:30 p.m. EST
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. - televized by ESPN
Cincinnati Bearcats v. Duke Blue Devils. The Bearcats are favored by 7 points.
Our call
: We originally called this 38-27 for Cincinnati but go to 38-26 to keep from being locked in between the line and the CFPT average spread. Our ratings make the Bearcats 1.7 rating points better than the Mustangs, so that 1.7 x 7 actually = 11.9, i.e. closer to 12 than 11.
Cincinnati - ranked 41st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.2
Duke - ranked 89th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -2.9.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 11.75 points in favor of Cincinnati.
Result: The Blue Devils raced to a surprising 16-0 lead in the 1st quarter but the Bearcats fought back gamely for a 48-34 win in which the score does not tell the true story, as Duke was driving for a potentially winning score with less than two minutes to play in the game, but fumbled on the Bearcat five 5-yard line, followed by an 83-yard Cincinnati pass from QB Brendon Kay to Travis Kelce and a closing 55-yard pass interception for a TD by the Bearcats' Nick Temple.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 8-3 in calling the winner and 5-6 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 4-7 against the average CFPT spread.


Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, 9:45 p.m. EST
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California - televized by ESPN
Baylor Bears v. UCLA Bruins. The teams are rated even. Take your pick. point.
Our call
: 37-31 for UCLA.
Baylor - ranked 24th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -0.9
UCLA - ranked 13th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 0.63 points in favor of UCLA.
Result: Baylor rolled to a 35-10 win at halftime and won easily 49-26. The Bears' Nick Florence threw for 188 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 37 yards and another TD, assisted by Lache Seastrunk with 138 yards and 1 TD and Glasco Martin 98 yards and 3 TDs rushing. Brett Hundley of the Bruins passed for 329 yards and 3 TDs, but Johnathan Franklin was held to 34 yards rushing, as UCLA rushed for only 28 net yards. Baylor finished the season with 72 touchdowns and an average total offense of 578.8 yards per game.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 8-4 in calling the winner and 5-7 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 4-8 against the average CFPT spread.


Friday, December 28, 2012 

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, 2:00 p.m. EST
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana - televized by ESPN
Ohio Bobcats v. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. The Warhawks are favored by 7 points.
Our call
: Our original call was 34-27 for LA Monroe but we go to 35-27 to avoid being locked in between the line and the CFPT average spread. Our ratings have the Warhawks with an advantage of 0.5 x 7 = 3.5 points plus the presumed home advantage of playing in Louisiana for which Kambour has 2.5 points. In an offensive shootout we can not see Ohio keeping up with Monroe.
Ohio - ranked 77th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
LA Monroe - ranked 59th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 7.70 points in favor of LA Monroe.
Result: The 45-14 rout of the Warhawks by the Bobcats is surely the biggest bowl surprise of the year for this observer, as Ohio outgained LA Monroe 556 to 314 yards. Tyler Tettleton threw for 331 yards and 2 TDs, with three completions to Chase Cochran for 162 yards and five completions to Tyler Futrell for 133 yards. Beau Blankenship rushed for 104 yards and 4 TDs. Monroe's Kolton Browning disappointed with 219 yards passing, 2 TDs, and 3 interceptions thrown, rushing 24 times for only 47 yards and being sacked 5 times.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 8-5 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 4-9 against the average CFPT spread.


Russell Athletic Bowl, 5:30 p.m. EST
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida - televized by ESPN
Virginia Tech Hokies v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Hokies are favored by 2.5 points.
Our call
: 27-23 for Rutgers.
Virginia Tech - ranked 56th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.8
Rutgers - ranked 40th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.2.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 2.49 points in favor of Rutgers. The line and the CFPT average computer spread each predict a different winner.
Result: Rutgers held a 10-0 lead after three quarters but then threw away the game on miscues, losing 13-10 in overtime in a defensive struggle marked by 21 punts, as each team gained only 196 yards total offense. Coaches should try to remember that football is a spectator sport and that some offense is required. Win or lose, many fans are not happy about these kinds of contests.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 8-6 in calling the winner and 5-9 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 4-10 against the average CFPT spread.


Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, 9:00 p.m. EST
Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas - televized by ESPN
Minnesota Golden Gophers v. Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Red Raiders are favored by 13 points.
Our call
: 33-24 for Texas Tech.
Minnesota - ranked 50th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.7
Texas Tech - ranked 26th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 11.11 points in favor of Texas Tech.
Result: Texas Tech scored a TD with 1:44 to play and kicked a field goal with 2 seconds remaining to win a tight contest 34-31 under interim head coach Chris Thomsen. Seth Doege of the Red Raiders threw for 271 yards and 2 TDs, with 11 receptions by Darrin Moore for 84 yards. Minnesota's Philip Nelson threw for 138 yards, 4 of those to Derrick Engel for 108 yards, while Donnell Kirkwood of the Golden Gophers led all rushers with 77 yards.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 9-6 in calling the winner and 6-9 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 5-10 against the average CFPT spread.


Saturday, December 29, 2012 

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, 11:45 a.m. EST
Armon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas - televized by ESPN
Rice Owls v. Air Force Falcons. The Falcons are favored by 1.5 points.
Our call
: 34-27 for Air Force.
Rice - ranked 95th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -3.1
Air Force - ranked 74th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -2.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 1.32 points in favor of Rice. The line and the CFPT average computer spread each predict a different winner.
Result: The Owls trailed 14-7 at the half and the game was tied 14-14 after 3 quarters, but then Rice broke open the game in the final stanza to win 33-14, outgaining Air Force 503 to 214 yards and throttling the one-sided Falcons rushing attack. For Rice, Driphus Jackson threw for 264 yards and 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 9-7 in calling the winner and 6-10 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 5-11 against the average CFPT spread.


New Era Pinstripe Bowl, 3:15 p.m. EST
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York - televized by ESPN
West Virginia v. Syracuse. The Mountaineers are favored by 4 points.
Our call
: We originally had 35-31 for West Virginia but go to 34-31 to avoid being locked in between the line and the CFPT. This is a tough call because the Mountaineers lost to the Orange in 2010 and 2011 and because the Bronx in New York is nearly a home field advantage for New York State's Syracuse.
West Virginia - ranked 31st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Syracuse - ranked 51st by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.7.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = -4.22 points in favor of West Virginia.
Result: The Orange beat the Mountaineers for the third straight year, this time in a bowl game, 38-14, outgaining West Virginia 511 to 285 yards, as Prince-Tyson Gulley ran for 208 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries and Jerome Smith added 157 yards on 30 carries for Syracuse. West Virginia's Geno Smith threw for 197 yards and 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 9-8 in calling the winner and 7-10 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 6-11 against the average CFPT spread.


Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, 3:15 p.m. EST
AT&T Park, San Francisco, California - televized by ESPN2
Navy Midshipmen v. Arizona State Sun Devils. The Sun Devils are favored by 14.5 points.
Our call
: 31-24 for Arizona State. Navy looked terrible in barely winning against Army, but could bounce back here with a respectable showing.
Navy - ranked 66th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.0
Arizona State - ranked 29th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 13.42 points in favor of Arizona State.
Result: Taylor Kelly threw for 268 yards and 4 touchdowns and Marion Grice rushed for 159 yards as the Sun Devils rolled over Navy 62-28.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 10-8 in calling the winner and 7-11 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 6-12 against the average CFPT spread.


Valero Alamo Bowl, 6:45 p.m. EST
Alamodome, San  Antonio, Texas - televized by ESPN
Texas Longhorns v. Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers are favored by 2 points.
Our call
: 34-31 for Texas.
Texas - ranked 20th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -0.5
Oregon State - ranked 17th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 3.15 points in favor of Oregon State.
Result: The Longhorns triumphed over the Beavers 31-27, as David Ash threw for 241 yards and 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 11-8 in calling the winner and 8-11 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 7-12 against the average CFPT spread.


Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 10:15 p.m. EST
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona - televized by ESPN
TCU Horned Frogs v. Michigan State Spartans. The Horned Frogs are favored by 2.5 points.
Our call
: 24-23 for Michigan State.
TCU - ranked 30th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Michigan State - ranked 32nd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 2.52 points in favor of Texas Christian University.
Result: The Spartans were outgained 288 to 227 yards but emerged 17-16 victors in a defensive struggle marked by 18 punts. Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State gained 145 rushing and 1 tD on 32 carries and the Horned Frogs' QB Trevone Boykin threw for 201 yards, as the TCU rushing attack was stymied.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 12-8 in calling the winner and 9-11 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 8-12 against the average CFPT spread.


Monday, December 31, 2012 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee - televized by ESPN
North Carolina State Wolfpack v. Vanderbilt Commodores. The Commodores are favored by 7 points.
Our call
: Our original call was 28-21 for Vanderbilt but we go to 31-21 in order not to be locked in between the line and the CFPT average spread. Our ratings favor Vanderbilt by 1 rating point x 7 = 7 scoreboard points, but in view of the virtual home advantage in Nashville, Tennessee, we can go to 10, although Kambour has a negative value for Vandy's home field. Lame-duck offensive coordinator Dana Bible, reportedly a good friend of ousted head coach Tom O'Brien, will coach NC State in this game and then depart, while new head coach Dave Doeren is busy lining up his staff for next year that will include among other things Matt Canada as the new offensive coordinator coming from Wisconsin. See the new hires thus far at NC State.
NC State - ranked 68th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.1
Vanderbilt - ranked 36th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 9.20 points in favor of Vanderbilt.
Result: Vanderbilt won 38-24 after building a 28-14 1st half lead and in spite of being outgained 424 to 225 yards as the Wolfpack turned the ball over five times. Vandy thus capped its best season in a century, finishing 9-4.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 13-8 in calling the winner and 10-11 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 9-12 against the average CFPT spread.

Hyundai Sun Bowl, 2:00 p.m. EST 
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas - televized by CBS
USC v. Georgia Tech. The Trojans are favored by 10 points.
Our call
: 40-27 for USC.
Southern Cal - ranked 18th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.0.
Georgia Tech - ranked 57th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 10.52 points in favor of Southern Cal.
Result: In one of the most surprising results in what has been a partially astonishing bowl game season for upsets, the Yellow Jackets easily knocked off the Trojans, ranked Nr. 1 in many pre-season polls, 21-7, as Georgia Tech outgained USC 369 to 205 yards. The Georgia Tech running game netted 294 yards, while 2 of their 3 TDs were passes thrown by Washington and Lee.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 13-9 in calling the winner and 10-12 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 9-13 against the average CFPT spread.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 3:30 p.m. EST
Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tennessee - televized by ESPN
Iowa State Cyclones v. Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The game is currently rated even as a pick 'em contest.
Our call
: 27-24 for Iowa State.
Iowa State - ranked 47th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.5
Tulsa - ranked 53rd by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.8.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 1.84 points in favor of Iowa State. The line and the CFPT average computer spread each predict a different winner.
Result: The Cyclones raced to a 17-7 1st quarter lead and then faded down the stretch to lose 31-17 to the Golden Hurricane as Trey Watts ran for 149 yards and Alex Singleton scored 3 TDs rushing.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 13-10 in calling the winner and 10-13 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 9-14 against the average CFPT spread.

Chick-fil-A Bowl, 7:30 p.m. EST
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia - televized by ESPN
LSU v. Clemson. The LSU Tigers are favored by 4 points.
Our call
: 31-21 for LSU.
LSU - ranked 5th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.3.
Clemson - ranked 34th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 4.85 points in favor of LSU.
Result: Clemson came back from a 24-13 deadlock at the end of the 3rd quarter to stun LSU 25-24 on a 37-yard field goal with 2 seconds to play. Tajh Boyd completed 36 of 50 passes for 346 yards, 2 TDs and no interceptions by the vaunted LSU defense, as Clemson outgained LSU 445 to 219 yards.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 13-11 in calling the winner and 10-14 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 9-15 against the average CFPT spread.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Heart of Dallas Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas - televized by ESPNU
Purdue Boilermakers v. Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys are favored by 16.5 points.
Our call
: 37-27 for Oklahoma State.
Purdue - ranked 73rd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -2.3
Oklahoma State - ranked 25th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -0.9.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 17.31 points in favor of Oklahoma State.
Result: The Cowboys demolished the Boilermakers 58-14, as Purdue turned the ball over 5 times and was outgained 524 to 367 yards by Oklahoma State, whose Clint Chelf threw for 3 TDs and J.W. Walsh for 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 14-11 in calling the winner and 10-15 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 9-16 against the average CFPT spread.

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl, 12:00 p.m. EST
Everbank Field, Jacksonville, Florida - televized by ESPN2
Mississippi State Bulldogs v. Northwestern Wildcats. The Bulldogs are favored by 2.5 points.
Our call
: 30-27 for Northwestern.
Mississippi State - ranked 46th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.5
Northwestern - ranked 28th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 1.23 points in favor of Northwestern. The line and the CFPT average computer spread each predict a different winner.
Result: Northwestern topped the Bulldogs 34-20 for a small save of face for the Big Ten versus the SEC in a game marked by seven interceptions.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 15-11 in calling the winner and 11-15 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 10-16 against the average CFPT spread.

Capitol One Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida - televized by ABC
Georgia Bulldogs v. Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Bulldogs are favored by 10 points.
Our call
: 33-30 for Nebraska. This game is a nice match-up for Nebraska, which has the nation's best past defense but a miserable rushing defense, as shown by the Wisconsin game in which they were blown out ignobly. The Huskers should far well against the strong passing attack of the Bulldogs. Similarly, Georgia is much weaker in rushing defense than passing defense, and there the Huskers have a strong rushing attack. Hence, this game could be close, and, of course, as a Nebraska alumnus, we go with the Cornhuskers.
Georgia - ranked 4th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.4
Nebraska - ranked 15th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 9.16 points in favor of Georgia.
Result: The Cornhuskers led 31-23 in the 3rd quarter but then were devastated by their own never-ending mistakes -- which seems to be the hallmark of the Pelini coached Husker teams - and lost 45-31, scoring 14 points in the 1st quarter, 10 in the second, 7 in the 3rd and 0 in the 4th -- all signs of either wearied players or bad coaching down the stretch. Pelini constantly talks about following the game plan rather than adjusting to what is actually happening IN THE GAME, as Aaron Murray torched the vaunted NU pass defense for 427 yards and 5 touchdowns, many of them long gainers.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 15-12 in calling the winner and 11-16 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 10-17 against the average CFPT spread.

Outback Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
Raymond James Stadiuim, Tampa, Florida - televized by ESPN
South Carolina Gamecocks v. Michigan Wolverines. The Gamecocks are favored by 5 points.
Our call
: 27-24 for Michigan. The Gamecocks have a strong defense but only an average offense. Michigan ranks 2nd in the country in pass defense so that South Carolina will have to rely on its 86th-ranked rushing offense against the Wolverines 58th-ranked rushing defense. Michigan's Denard Robinson may be the key to victory, but he has to learn to show his stuff on the field and not while driving on a suspended license in "early morning hours". That episode may show a lack of the team dedication that is required to win the big ones. With a Michigan grad in the family, we are rooting for a return of Denard's magic ON the football field, not off. As a senior, it is his last college shot.
South Carolina - ranked 10th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.0
Michigan - ranked 16th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 4.92 points in favor of South Carolina.
Result: Michigan had this one in its reach, scoring a TD with 4:20 left to take the lead 28-27, but the defense failed to hold the Gamecocks on a 4th and 3 at South Carolina's own 37-yard line with 2:15 left and then gave up a 32-yard touchdown pass with 20 seconds left on the clock to lose 33-28 in a devastating loss for the Wolverines, who turned victory into defeat.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 15-13 in calling the winner and 11-16-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 10-17-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio, 5:00 p.m. EST
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California - televized by ESPN
Wisconsin Badgers v. Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is favored by 6.5 points.
Our call
: 27-20 for Stanford. Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema has unexpectedly signed on with Arkansas after 7 years with the Badgers and 3 straight Rose Bowls, so that Wisconsin will be coached in this game by previous head coach and now Athletic Director Barry Alvarez. Wisconsin is not likely to be able to run against Stanford's top-3 rushing defense so it is interesting that redshirt freshman Joel Stave, an excellent passer who started six games prior to a broken collarbone, may be available for the bowl game if Curt Phillips has trouble moving the ball against the Cardinal. Stanford on the other hand could struggle with the stellar overall Badger defense, which ranks a few notches above that of Stanford.
Wisconsin - ranked 14th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.0
Stanford - ranked 8th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 6.94 points in favor of Stanford.
Result: The Stanford Cardinal stood up to the challenge and won the Rose Bowl for the first time in 40 years, beating the Wisconsin Badgers 20-14, as Kevin Hogan threw for 123 yards and Stepfan Taylor ran for 88 yards and 1 TD. Montee Ball of Wisconsin ran for 100 yards and 1 TD, his 83rd, an FBS record.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 16-13 in calling the winner and 11-17-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 10-18-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Discover Orange Bowl, 8:30 p.m. EST
Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida - televized by ESPN
Northern Illinois Huskies v. Florida State Seminoles. The Seminoles are favored by 13 points.
Our call
: 31-24 for Florida State. NIU will be coached in this game by Rod Carey, former co-offensive coordinator under Dave Doeren, as Doeren at the end of the regular season accepted a ca. $1.5 million pro year higher paying job as head coach at NC State, so that Doeren's move is understandable, but surely also difficult in giving up coaching a BCS bowl game. This could be a great game because a very stout Seminole defense is facing a top quarterback in the Huskies' Jordan Lynch, whose 4733 total yards topped the nation this year, surpassing the lucky freshman Heisman Trophy winner. Florida State's own E.J. Manuel also set career highs this past season with 3101 passing yards, 22 TDs and 284 rushing yards. NIU also sparks a tough defense, averaging 19 points per game, so that both QBs will be challenged.
Northern Illinois - ranked 38th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Florida State - ranked 19th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 7.13 points in favor of Florida State.
Result: The Huskies hung with Florida State for 3 quarters, trailing only 17-10 going into the last stanza, but then faded to lose 31-10, as the Seminoles outgained Northern Illinois 534 to 259, confirming for the pundits that there is still a substantial difference between the MAC and the ACC. The Huskies' Jordan Lynch completed only 15 of 41 passes for 176 yards, 1 TD and 1 pick, while the Seminoles E.J. Manuel threw for 291 yards and 1 TD. Florida State's Lonnie Pryor led all rushers with 134 yards on 5 carries for 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 16-14 in calling the winner and 11-18-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 10-19-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Allstate Sugar Bowl, 8:30 p.m. EST
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana - televized by ESPN
Louisville Cardinals v. Florida Gators. The Gators are favored by 13.5 points.
Our call
: 28-21 for Florida. We worry about large point spreads in favor of teams that live from defense rather than from offense.
Louisville - ranked 39th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.1
Florida - ranked 9th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 16.27 points in favor of Florida.
Result: This bowl season is most certainly marked by some stunning upsets and the 2 TD favorites, the SEC Florida Gators, who some commentators thought should have been in the national championship game, fell to the Louisville Cardinals 33-23, as Lousville's Terry Bridgewater threw for 266 yards and 2 TDs, while Jeremy Wright rushed for 84 yards and 1 TD on 25 carries.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 16-15 in calling the winner and 12-18-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 11-19-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, 8:30 p.m. EST
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona - televized by ESPN
Oregon Ducks v. Kansas State Wildcats. The Ducks are favored by 9.5 points.
Our call
: 34-31 for Oregon.
Oregon - ranked 3rd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.4
Kansas State - ranked 11th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 4.51 points in favor of Oregon.
Result: Oregon defeated Kansas State 35-17.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 17-15 in calling the winner and 12-19-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 11-20-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Friday, January 4, 2013

AT&T Cotton Bowl, 8:00 p.m. EST
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas - televized by Fox
Texas A&M Aggies v. Oklahoma Sooners. The Aggies are favored by 4.5 points.
Our call
: 34-33 for Oklahoma.
Texas A&M - ranked 7th by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +0.3
Oklahoma - ranked 12th by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.0.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 2.65 points in favor of Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M led only 14-13 at the half, but then shut out the Sooners in the second half to win easily 41-13, as Heisman Trophy winner, freshman Johnny Manziel, lived up to his billing by throwing for 287 yards and 1 TD and running for 229 yards and 2 TDs.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 17-16 in calling the winner and 12-20-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 11-21-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

BBVA Compass Bowl, 1:00 p.m. EST
Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama - televized by ESPN
Pittsburgh Panthers v. Mississippi Rebels. The Rebels are favored by 3.5 points.
Our call
: 31-30 for Pittsburgh. The Pitt defense could be the difference.
Pittsburgh - ranked 52nd by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.7
Mississippi - ranked 37th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.1.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 2.61 points in favor of Mississippi.
Result: We thought Pitt was stronger than this bowl game showed, as the Rebels came away with a convincing 38-17 win, as Ole Miss outgained the Panthers 384 to 265 yards.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 17-17 in calling the winner and 12-21-1 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 11-22-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

GoDaddy.com Bowl, 9:00 p.m. EST
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama - televized by ESPN
Kent State Golden Flashes v. Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Red Wolves are favored by 4 points.
Our call
: Our original call was 34-30 for Arkansas State and so we go to 35-30 for the Red Wolves to avoid duplicating the current line.
Kent State - ranked 61st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of -1.9
Arkansas State - ranked 44th by Sport Pundit - team rating of -1.3.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 2.62 points in favor of Arkansas State.
Result: Gus Malzahn, who has headed to Auburn to be the new head coach of the Tigers, was replaced on the sidelines by interim head coach and defensive coordinator John Thompson, as the Red Wolves eked out a 17-13 win over the Golden Flashes in a surprisingly defensive struggle.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 18-17 in calling the winner and 12-21-2 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 12-22-1 against the average CFPT spread.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Discover BCS National Championship, 8:30 p.m. EST
Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida - televized by ESPN
Alabama Crimson Tide v. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Crimson Tide are favored by 10.5 points.
Our call
: 31-23 for Alabama. What makes national champions? Alabama, according to cfbstats.com is ranked 40th in total offense and Notre Dame is ranked 49th in total offense. By contrast, Alabama is ranked 1st and Notre Dame is ranked 6th in total defense.
Alabama - ranked 1st by SportPundit YPPSYS - team rating of +1.5.
Notre Dame - ranked 2nd by Sport Pundit - team rating of +0.4.
The College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") average spread prediction = 3.93 points in favor of Alabama.
Result: The Crimson Tide rolled to a 28-0 halftime lead over the Fighting Irish so that there was no doubt after a 42-14 Alabama victory over Notre Dame who the BCS national champions were this year, although Ohio State remained the only undefeated team in FBS competition, but was not eligible for a BCS bowl because of idiotic NCAA sanctions inflicted upon people who were innocent of any wrongdoing, rather than sanctions against the guilty. The NCAA remains an organization "outside the law" as far as standard precepts of jurisprudence are concerned.
SportPundit YPPSYS system calls: We are 19-17 in calling the winner and 12-22-2 against the line.
SportPundit against the CFPT "average spread": We are 13-22-1 against the average CFPT spread.

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