College Football Game Predictions AND Results for Week 10 of the 2009 Season
(the game results as they come in are simply appended to the previously posted predictions)
See our current football ratings and rankings in the previous post. Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.
The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, November 2, 2009, 10:14 a.m - the opening line. Our ranking in parentheses is followed by the win-loss record.
Bowling Green (102) (3-5) is an underdog by 3 points at Buffalo (78) (3-5).
Our call: 42-27 for the Bulls. Result: Buffalo took a 29-16 lead into the 4th quarter and saw it vanish in an inexplicable 30-29 collapse and loss to the Falcons. We are 0-1 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the spread.
Virginia Tech (10) (5-3) is a favorite by 9 points at East Carolina (84) (5-3),
Our call: 35-17 for the Hokies. Result: Virginia Tech won 16-3. We are 1-1 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.
Miami of Ohio (109) (1-8) is an underdog by 14 points at Temple (56) (6-2)
Our call: 38-14 for the Owls. Result: Temple eked out the win with a last-second field goal 34-32 We are 2-1 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread.
Eastern Michigan (119) (0-4) is an underdog by 19 points at Northern Illinois (87) (5-3).
Our call: 44-14 for the Huskies Result: Northern Illinois led 37-6 at the half and won going away 50-6 We are 3-1 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the spread.
Boise State (9) (8-0) is favored by 21 points at Louisiana Tech (90) (3-5).
Our call: 41-17 for the Broncos Result: 45-35 for Boise State in a totally unimpressive performance against the now 6-loss Bulldogs. Although the Broncos put up 506 yards total offense to only 248 for the Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech was able to keep close due to a long pass interception for a TD and a long kickoff return, putting the Bulldogs in position for a short TD. By the same token, the Broncos had trouble getting into the end zone, having to settle on 3 drives for field goals only. We are 4-1 in calling the winner and 2-3 against the spread.
UCF (67) (5-3) is the underdog by 36 points at Texas (5) (8-0),
Our call: 40-7 for the Longhorns Result: Texas won 35-3. We are 5-1 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.
Western Michigan (105) (4-5) is the underdog by 17.5 points at Michigan State (43) (4-5).
Our call: 48-24 for the Spartans Result: Michigan State won 49-14. We are 6-1 in calling the winner and 4-3 against the spread.
Purdue (62) (3-6) is the underdog by 7 points at Michigan (70) (5-4)
Our call: 27-21 for the Wolverines Result: Purdue won 38-36 We are 6-2 in calling the winner and 5-3 against the spread.
Louisville (91) (3-5) is the underdog by 15 points at West Virginia (21) (6-2).
Our call: 42-14 for the Mountaineers Result: West Virginia beat Louisville 17-9. We are 7-2 in calling the winner and 5-4 against the spread.
Northwestern (98) (5-4) is the underdog by 18 points at Iowa (18) (9-0).
Our call: 39-7 for the Hawkeyes Result: Northwestern upset the previously unbeaten Hawkeyes 17-10. We are 7-3 in calling the winner and 5-5 against the spread.
Syracuse (89) (3-5) is the underdog by 21 points at Pittsburgh (14) (7-1)
Our call: 40-20 for the Panthers Result: The Panthers won 37-10. We are 8-3 in calling the winner and 5-6 against the spread.
Wisconsin (36) (6-2) is favored by 5 points at Indiana (94) (4-5)
Our call: 26-14 for the Badgers Result: Wisconsin beat Indiana 31-28 We are 9-3 in calling the winner and 5-7 against the spread.
Illinois (95) (2-6) is the underdog by 4.5 points at Minnesota (69) (5-4)
Our call: 37-21 for the Golden Gophers Result: The Illini won 35-32. We are 9-4 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the spread.
South Carolina (30) (6-3) is the underdog by 4.5 points at (33) Arkansas (4-4)
Our call: 21-16 for the Razorbacks Result: Arkansas won 33-16 We are 10-4 in calling the winner and 6-8 against the spread.
Virginia (75) (3-5) is the underdog by 13.5 points at Miami of Florida (22) (6-2)
Our call: 28-6 for the Hurricanes Result: Miami won 52-17 We are 11-4 in calling the winner and 7-8 against the spread.
Kansas (38) (5-3) is favored by 3.5 points at Kansas State (76) (5-4).
Our call: YPPSYS would favor Kansas. Except for a bad start against the Sooners, Kansas State played the better football much of the game and can probably not be beaten at home by the Jayhawks. We call it 31-27 for the Wildcats. Result: Kansas State won 17-10 We are 12-4 in calling the winner and 8-8 against the spread.
Maryland (92) (2-6) is the underdog by 9.5 points at North Carolina State (55) (3-5).
Our call: 35-17 for the Wolfpack Result: North Carolina State won 38-31 We are 13-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.
Tennessee Tech (NR - not ranked, but honorable mention in the FCS rankings) (5-3) at Georgia (45) (4-4). No line.
Our call: 44-21 for the Bulldogs Result: Georgia won 38-0 We are 14-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.
Eastern Kentucky (no line, NR, not ranked, but honorable mention in the FCS rankings) (5-3) at Kentucky (4-4)
Our call: Eastern Kentucky lost 19-13 to Indiana to start out the season. We call it 41-20 for the Wildcats Result: Kentucky won 37-12 We are 15-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.
Furman (no line, NR, not ranked in the FCS rankings) (4-4) at Auburn (6-3)
Our call: The Paladins just lost to Appalachian State and Armanti Edwards 52-27 and earlier in the season lost 52-12 to Missouri. Can the Tigers do better? Furman is averaging 5.9 yards per play both on offense and defense, which means that the Auburn offense could run wild. We call it for the Tigers 66-24. Result: Auburn won 63-31 We are 16-4 in calling the winner and 8-9 against the spread.
Texas A&M (52) (5-3) is favored by 1 point at Colorado (107) (2-6).
Our call: 34-20 for the Aggies Result: Colorado won 35-34 We are 16-5 in calling the winner and 8-10 against the spread.
BYU (32) (6-2) is favored by 10.5 points at Wyoming (96) (4-4)
Our call: 31-14 for the Cougars Result: BYU won 52-0 We are 17-5 in calling the winner and 9-10 against the spread.
Florida Atlantic (103) (2-5) is the underdog by 4.5 points (no line, odds taken from the Oddsmaker) at UAB (93) (3-5) Our call: 48-38 for the Blazers Result: UAB won 56-29 We are 18-5 in calling the winner and 10-10 against the spread.
Baylor (51) (3-5) is the underdog by 14.5 points at Missouri (35) (5-3). Our call: 30-17 for the Tigers Result: Baylor won 40-32 We are 18-6 in calling the winner and 11-10 against the spread.
Navy (77) (6-3) is the underdog by 11 points at Notre Dame (40) (6-2).
Our call: 39-24 for the Fighting Irish Result: Navy won 23-21 We are 18-7 in calling the winner and 11-11 against the spread.
Rice (118) (0-8) is the underdog by 16.5 points at SMU (57) (4-4)
Our call: 52-10 for the Mustangs Result: SMU won 31-28 We are 19-7 in calling the winner and 11-12 against the spread.
Louisiana Lafayette (106) (4-4) is the underdog by 13 points at Arkansas State (85) (2-5)
Our call: 31-21 for the Red Wolves Result: Lafayette won 21-18 We are 19-8 in calling the winner and 12-12 against the spread.
Oregon (6) (7-1) is favored by 5.5 points at Stanford (28) (5-3).
Our call: The Cardinal has yet to lose a home game this year, even though our own stats favor the Ducks by 4 to 6 points. As a Stanford Law School alumnus, we call it 30-27 for Stanford. Result: Stanford won in a great game for the Cardinal 51-42 We are 20-8 in calling the winner and 13-12 against the spread.
Ohio State (13) (7-2) is the underdog by 4 points at Penn State (8) (8-1)
Our call: 30-17 for the Nittany Lions Result: Ohio State won 24-7 We are 20-9 in calling the winner and 13-13 against the spread.
LSU (19) (7-1) is the underdog by 10 points at Alabama (4) (8-0)
Our call: 31-10 for the Crimson Tide Result: Alabama won 24-15 We are 21-9 in calling the winner and 13-14 against the spread.
Kent State (80) (5-4) is favored by 2 points at Akron (104) (1-7).
Our call: 20-13 for the Golden Flashes Result: Akron beat Kent State 28-20 We are 21-10 in calling the winner and 13-15 against the spread.
UTEP (100) (3-5) is favored by 10.5 points at Tulane (110) (2-6)
Our call: 40-38 for the Miners Result: The Green Wave beat the Miners in overtime 45-38
We are 21-11 in calling the winner and 14-15 against the spread.
Army (101) (3-5) is the underdog by 17 points at Air Force (63) (5-4).
Our call: 31-13 for the Falcons Result: Air Force won 35-7 We are 22-11 in calling the winner and 15-15 against the spread.
Washington (99) (3-5) is the underdog by 3.5 points at UCLA (68) (3-5)
Our call: 34-17 for the Bruins Result: UCLA won 24-23 We are 23-11 in calling the winner and 15-16 against the spread.
Oklahoma State (24) (6-2) is the favorite by 7.5 points at Iowa State (82) (5-4)
Our call: 33-21 for the Cowboys Result: The Cowboys won 34-8 We are 24-11 in calling the winner and 16-16 against the spread.
Duke (65) (5-3) is the underdog by 7.5 points at North Carolina (41) (5-3)
Our call: 27-14 for the Tar Heels Result: North Carolina won 19-6 We are 25-11 in calling the winner and 17-16 against the spread.
Wake Forest (61) (4-5) is the underdog by 15 points (no line, odds taken from the Oddsmaker) at Georgia Tech (34) (8-1). Our call: 31-17 for the Yellow Jackets Result: Georgia Tech won 30-27 in overtime We are 26-11 in calling the winner and 18-16 against the spread.
Washington State (116) (1-7) is an underdog by 31 points at Arizona (17) (5-2)
Our call: 54-0 for the Wildcats Result: Arizona won 48-7 We are 27-11 in calling the winner and 19-16 against the spread.
Louisiana Monroe (64) (4-4) is seen as even at North Texas (86) (2-6)
Our call: Our stats also narrow towards a draw, so we call it for the home team 31-30. Result: Louisiana Monroe won 33-6 We are 27-12 in calling the winner and 19-17 against the spread.
TCU (2) (8-0) is favored by 24 points at San Diego State (72) (4-4)
Our call: 30-7 for the Horned Frogs, although we will be cheering for the improving Aztecs to make it closer Result: TCU won 55-12 We are 28-12 in calling the winner and 19-18 against the spread.
Oklahoma (12) (5-3) is favored by 6.5 points at Nebraska (11) (5-3),
Our call: It is a surprise to this Nebraska alum, but the YPPSYS rankings have the Huskers ranked .1 rating point above the Sooners, plus the home field advantage, makes it a predicted win for the Cornhuskers, 27-20. To do that, the Huskers will have to bruise the opposition, rather than parked cars on the streets, i.e. judging by this story about the Husker's only All-American player and his drinking and driving antics at 2:20 a.m. on a Sunday morning, if this is typical for the "training regimen" of the darlings of Memorial Stadium, we can now better understand 8 turnovers against Iowa State. After all, you have to be able to "see" the ball to hold on to it. When players stop drinking and carousing at 2:20 a.m, get a good night's sleep and follow a sensible training program, maybe then there is actually a decent team to be found there after all - but they ALL have to be sober first. THEN let's see how they play. All of that written tongue in cheek - of course. Result: In Nebraska, if you beat Oklahoma, the unpardonable losses to Virginia Tech and Iowa State are forgiven. We were right on the money in our prediction on this one, and the final score of 10-3 in favor of the Cornhuskers shows once again that defense wins football games and is the mark of good teams, as the Huskers themselves gained only 180 yards to the Sooners 325, but Nebraska picked off 5 passes, blocked a field goal and stopped several drives near their red zone, when it counted. Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini knows what it takes on defense. Now he just has to get an offensive coordinator who is equally good in developing a viable offense. For Nebraska, we recommend someone who runs the triple option with the quarterback at shotgun - the kind of offense that Urban Meyer runs - or some variant of the triple option similar to the I-back option offense that Tom Osborne ran. Those are still the best offenses for college football - if you have the personnel for it - and teams that have abandoned the option offense are regretting it, not just Nebraska. As written at the Wikipedia about the Meyer offense: "Meyer's base offense spreads three receivers and puts the quarterback in shotgun formation. Then, he introduces motion in the backfield and turns it into an option attack, adding elements of the traditional run-oriented option offense." The Meyer offense is our favorite, which, strangely enough, developed initially due to a loss to Nebraska, as Smart Football writes,: "Meyer has recalled losing to Nebraska in 2001, and being struck when, after they lost, he found one of his best players, David Givens, crying at his locker because he was unable to help his team win: he hadn't touched the ball the entire game. He swore to run an offense that got his playmakers the ball." We are 29-12 in calling the winner and 20-18 against the spread.
Florida International (115) (2-6) is an underdog by 11 points at Middle Tennessee State (71) (5-3) Our call: 44-14 for the Blue Raiders Result: Middle Tennessee won 48-21. We are 30-12 in calling the winner and 21-18 against the spread.
Connecticut (47) (4-4) is the underdog by 12 points at Cincinnati (3) (8-0),
Our call: 37-7 for the Bearcats Result: Cincinnati won 47-45, struggling to win in spite of a school record 711 yards total offense as several big plays, such as Robert McClain's 87-yard punt return, kept the Huskies close. Connecticut has now lost 5 games by a combined total of only 15 points. By a comparison of average yards gained per play, 9.7 for the Bearcats to 6.6 for the Huskies, the Bearcats should have won by 4 touchdowns and need to prop up their defense considerably. We are 31-12 in calling the winner and 21-19 against the spread.
Florida State (60) (4-4) is the underdog by 8.5 points (no line, odds taken from the Oddsmaker) at (26) Clemson (5-3) Our call: 41-21 for the Tigers Result: Clemson went into the 4th quarter trailing 24-21 but emerged 40-24 victors. We are 32-12 in calling the winner and 22-19 against the spread.
Troy (44) (6-2) is favored by 24 points at Western Kentucky (120) (0-8)
Our call: 41-7 for Troy Result: Troy struggled, leading only 21.20 at the half, but ultimately won 40-20. We are 33-12 in calling the winner and 22-20 against the spread.
New Mexico (111) (0-8) is an underdog by 28 points at Utah (16) (7-1)
Our call: 49-7 for the Utes Result: Utah won 45-14 We are 34-12 in calling the winner and 23-20 against the spread.
Oregon State (46) (5-3) is the underdog by 6.5 points at California (27) (6-2)
Our call: 38-24 for California Result: The Beavers upset Cal 31-14 We are 34-13 in calling the winner and 23-21 against the spread.
Memphis (108) (2-6) is the underdog by 26 points at Tennessee (20) (4-4)
Our call: 46-7 for the Vols Result: The Volunteers won 56-28 We are 35-13 in calling the winner and 24-21 against the spread.
Vanderbilt (88) (2-7) is the underdog by 35 points at Florida (1) (8-0)
Our call: 55-7 for Florida Result: Florida won 27-3 We are 36-13 in calling the winner and 24-22 against the spread.
Northern Arizona (no line, NR, not rated in the FCS) (5-3) at Mississippi (23) (5-3)
Our call: The Lumberjacks lost 34-17 to Arizona to start out the season and are averaging 6.4 yards per play to the opposition 5.5. We call it 44-24 for Ole Miss Result: Mississippi won 38-14
We are 37-13 in calling the winner and 24-22 against the spread.
Houston (42) (7-1) is the favorite by 3 points at Tulsa (59) (4-4)
Our call: 41-40 for the Golden Hurricane Result: In a heartbreaking loss, Tulsa lost 46-45. Rick Couri tells the story at KRMG Sports: "Tulsa literally had the game in their hands, and couldn't hold on. Houston scored with :20 left to make the game 45-43. The Cougars then went for two and Tulsa turned them away. But the Cougars weren't finished. UH onside kicked and hit Tulsa safety Dexter McCoil square in the hands, but he couldn't hold on. Houston recovered the onside and as time expired Matt Hogan drilled a 51 yard field goal to give the Cougars a 46-45 win." There are probably worse ways to lose, but we can not think of them. We are 37-14 in calling the winner and 25-22 against the spread.
USC (7) (6-2) is favored by 14 points at Arizona State (48) (4-4)
Our call: The Southern Cal bubble has burst completely this year with the hammerhead loss to Oregon. They should have had a more experienced and opportunistic Mitch Mustain at quarterback, but decided to go with a freshman QB and still play conservative, and now they have gotten what they deserved, as the offense has fizzled and the defense has showed weakness. What can be salvaged? We call it 35-23 for USC. Result: The Oregon loss was no fluke as USC was lucky to win against the Sun Devils, 14-9, in spite of being outgained in total offense yardage 347 to 258. We are 38-14 in calling the winner and 26-22 against the spread.
Colorado State (81) (3-6) is favored by 1.5 points at UNLV (114) (3-6)
Our call: 34-17 for the Rams Result: UNLV won 35-16 We are 38-15 in calling the winner and 26-23 against the spread.
Utah State (83) (2-6) is favored by 3.5 points at Hawaii (66) (2-6)
Our call: 44-34 for the Warriors Result: Hawaii won 49-36 We are 39-15 in calling the winner and 27-23 against the spread.
Fresno State (37) (5-3) is favored by 7.5 points at Idaho (53) (7-2)
Our call: 27-26 for the Vandals Result: Fresno State won 31-21 We are 39-16 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.
In Division I-AA (the FCS)
Villanova (Pa.) (7-1) at No. 1 ranked Richmond (Va.) (8-0)
Our call: 28-21 for Richmond Result: Villanova upset the defending FCS national champions 21-20 We are 39-17 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.
In Division II
West Alabama (Livingston, Alabama) (6-4) at No. 1 ranked North Alabama (Florence, Alabama) (9-0)
Our call: 38-14 for North Alabama Result: The West Alabama Tigers stunned the top ranked Lions 31-28 in 4 overtimes. North Alabama is quarterbacked by Harrison Beck, who started out his career as a quarterback at the Universit of Nebraska, but seemed there to be plagued by interceptions, which also cost the game here. We are 39-18 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.
In Division III
Otterbein College (Westerville, Ohio) (7-1) at No. 1 ranked Mount Union (Alliance, Ohio) (8-0)
Our call: 56-7 for Mt . Union Result: Mount Union won 58-7. The Purple Raiders struggled early this season, clearly operating in a "rebuilding year" mode after the loss of several top players from last year's national championship team, but, as usual, under Larry Kehres talented coaching tutelage, the current team seems to be picking up steam again with new personnel. We are 40-18 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.
NAIA
Dordt College (Sioux Center, Iowa) (1-8) at No. 1 ranked Sioux Falls (S.D.) (9-0)
Our call: 79-0 for Sioux Falls Result: Sioux Falls won 58-0 We are 41-18 in calling the winner and 27-24 against the spread.
On Sunday
Nevada (49) (5-3) is favored by 14 points at San Jose State (113) (1-6)
Our call: 45-23 for the Wolf Pack Result: -- W-L Winner and Against the Spread
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Friday, November 06, 2009
Florida Gators coach Urban Meyer fined $30,000 by SEC for criticizing officials - ESPN
I am a great fan of Urban Meyer and understand his wanting to protect his quarterback Tim Tebow, but public criticism of officials is simply "out" in our book.
Everyone should do their job. Players play. Coaches coach. Officials officiate. That's it.
When the officiating is bad, there are enough other people around who see it, and comment about it. Frankly, from what we have seen, most officials are more competent at their job than the players or the coaches are at theirs. Each to his own.
See Florida Gators coach Urban Meyer fined $30,000 by SEC for criticizing officials - ESPN
Everyone should do their job. Players play. Coaches coach. Officials officiate. That's it.
When the officiating is bad, there are enough other people around who see it, and comment about it. Frankly, from what we have seen, most officials are more competent at their job than the players or the coaches are at theirs. Each to his own.
See Florida Gators coach Urban Meyer fined $30,000 by SEC for criticizing officials - ESPN
Sunday, November 01, 2009
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS) through November 1, 2009, after Week 9 games
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS)
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through November 1, 2009, after Week 9 of regular season games
NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. For Arizona, for example, we start with 6.2 as YPP OFF, subtract the 5.1 of the YPP DEF which is then a NAYPPA of 1.1. A penalty of .1 is substracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. For Arizona we thus substract a .1 penalty for defense from the NAYPPA. Then we subtract the .2 for schedule rating and .2 for each of the two losses or .4 together, which results in a rating of 0.4 total or a rank of 17. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through November 1, 2009, after Week 9 of regular season games
NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. For Arizona, for example, we start with 6.2 as YPP OFF, subtract the 5.1 of the YPP DEF which is then a NAYPPA of 1.1. A penalty of .1 is substracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. For Arizona we thus substract a .1 penalty for defense from the NAYPPA. Then we subtract the .2 for schedule rating and .2 for each of the two losses or .4 together, which results in a rating of 0.4 total or a rank of 17. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.
| Rank | After 9th Week | NAYPPA | YPP OFF | YPP DEF | Schedule | W-L | Rating | |||||
| 1 | Florida | 2.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 24 | 8-0 | 2.4 | |||||
| 2 | TCU | 2.5 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 34 | 8-0 | 2.2 | |||||
| 3 | Cincinnati | 2.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 52 | 8-0 | 2.2 | |||||
| 4 | Alabama | 2.1 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 15 | 8-0 | 1.9 | |||||
| 5 | Texas | 1.9 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 24 | 8-0 | 1.7 | |||||
| 6 | Oregon | 1.7 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 5 | 7-1 | 1.4 | |||||
| 7 | USC | 1.9 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 6 | 6-2 | 1.4 | |||||
| 8 | Penn State | 2.4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 83 | 8-1 | 1.4 | |||||
| 9 | Boise State | 1.9 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 69 | 8-0 | 1.2 | |||||
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 1.4 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2 | 5-3 | 0.8 | |||||
| 11 | Nebraska | 1.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 44 | 5-3 | 0.8 | |||||
| 12 | Oklahoma | 1.6 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 32 | 5-3 | 0.7 | |||||
| 13 | Ohio State | 1.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 68 | 7-2 | 0.7 | |||||
| 14 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 54 | 7-1 | 0.6 | |||||
| 15 | Texas Tech | 1.6 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 45 | 6-3 | 0.5 | |||||
| 16 | Utah | 1.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 66 | 7-1 | 0.5 | |||||
| 17 | Arizona | 1.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 18 | 5-2 | 0.4 | |||||
| 18 | Iowa | 0.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 27 | 9-0 | 0.4 | |||||
| 19 | LSU | 0.9 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 25 | 7-1 | 0.4 | |||||
| 20 | Tennessee | 1.2 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 12 | 4-4 | 0.3 | |||||
| 21 | West Virginia | 1.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 64 | 6-2 | 0.3 | |||||
| 22 | Miami (Florida) | 0.8 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 7 | 6-2 | 0.2 | |||||
| 23 | Mississippi | 1.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 35 | 5-3 | 0.2 | |||||
| 24 | Oklahoma State | 1.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 41 | 6-2 | 0.2 | |||||
| 25 | South Florida | 1.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 72 | 6-2 | 0.2 | |||||
| 26 | Clemson | 0.9 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 16 | 5-3 | 0.1 | |||||
| 27 | California | 0.9 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 28 | 6-2 | 0.1 | |||||
| 28 | Stanford | 1.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 33 | 5-3 | 0.0 | |||||
| 29 | Auburn | 0.7 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 13 | 6-3 | -0.1 | |||||
| 30 | South Carolina | 0.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 29 | 6-3 | -0.2 | |||||
| 31 | Boston College | 0.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 30 | 6-3 | -0.2 | |||||
| 32 | BYU | 0.9 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 56 | 6-2 | -0.2 | |||||
| 33 | Arkansas | 0.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 8 | 4-4 | -0.3 | |||||
| 34 | Georgia Tech | 0.2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 9 | 8-1 | -0.3 | |||||
| 35 | Missouri | 0.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 39 | 5-3 | -0.3 | |||||
| 36 | Wisconsin | 0.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 43 | 6-2 | -0.4 | |||||
| 37 | Fresno State | 0.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 59 | 5-3 | -0.4 | |||||
| 38 | Kansas | 0.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 61 | 5-3 | -0.4 | |||||
| 39 | Central Michigan | 0.8 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 95 | 7-2 | -0.5 | |||||
| 40 | Notre Dame | 0.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 38 | 6-2 | -0.6 | |||||
| 41 | North Carolina | 0.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 42 | 5-3 | -0.6 | |||||
| 42 | Houston | 0.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 76 | 7-1 | -0.6 | |||||
| 43 | Michigan State | 0.9 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 48 | 4-5 | -0.7 | |||||
| 44 | Troy | 0.7 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 86 | 6-2 | -0.7 | |||||
| 45 | Georgia | 0.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 1 | 4-4 | -0.8 | |||||
| 46 | Oregon State | 0.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 19 | 5-3 | -0.8 | |||||
| 47 | Connecticut | 0.6 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 53 | 4-4 | -0.8 | |||||
| 48 | Arizona State | 0.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 70 | 4-4 | -0.8 | |||||
| 49 | Nevada | 0.8 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 88 | 5-3 | -0.9 | |||||
| 50 | Rutgers | 0.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 91 | 6-2 | -0.9 | |||||
| 51 | Baylor | 0.5 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 40 | 3-5 | -1.0 | |||||
| 52 | Texas A&M | 0.2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 46 | 5-3 | -1.0 | |||||
| 53 | Idaho | 0.5 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 104 | 7-2 | -1.0 | |||||
| 54 | Mississippi State | 0.2 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 17 | 4-5 | -1.1 | |||||
| 55 | North Carolina State | 0.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 63 | 3-5 | -1.1 | |||||
| 56 | Temple | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 97 | 6-2 | -1.1 | |||||
| 57 | SMU | 0.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 62 | 4-4 | -1.2 | |||||
| 58 | Southern Mississippi | 0.8 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 110 | 5-4 | -1.2 | |||||
| 59 | Tulsa | 0.8 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 116 | 4-4 | -1.2 | |||||
| 60 | Florida State | -0.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 10 | 4-4 | -1.3 | |||||
| 61 | Wake Forest | 0.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 26 | 4-5 | -1.3 | |||||
| 62 | Purdue | 0.4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 37 | 3-6 | -1.3 | |||||
| 63 | Air Force | 0.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 75 | 5-4 | -1.3 | |||||
| 64 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 77 | 4-4 | -1.3 | |||||
| 65 | Duke | 0.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 81 | 5-3 | -1.3 | |||||
| 66 | Hawai'i | 0.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 82 | 2-6 | -1.3 | |||||
| 67 | UCF | 0.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 118 | 5-3 | -1.3 | |||||
| 68 | UCLA | -0.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4 | 3-5 | -1.4 | |||||
| 69 | Minnesota | -0.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 20 | 5-4 | -1.4 | |||||
| 70 | Michigan | 0.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 80 | 5-4 | -1.4 | |||||
| 71 | Middle Tennessee | 0.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 92 | 5-3 | -1.4 | |||||
| 72 | San Diego State | 0.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 99 | 4-4 | -1.4 | |||||
| 73 | Ohio | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 108 | 6-3 | -1.4 | |||||
| 74 | Kentucky | -0.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 14 | 4-4 | -1.6 | |||||
| 75 | Virginia | -0.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 23 | 3-5 | -1.6 | |||||
| 76 | Kansas State | 0.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 65 | 5-4 | -1.6 | |||||
| 77 | Navy | -0.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 67 | 6-3 | -1.6 | |||||
| 78 | Buffalo | 0.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 101 | 3-5 | -1.7 | |||||
| 79 | Toledo | 0.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 102 | 4-5 | -1.7 | |||||
| 80 | Kent State | 0.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 112 | 5-4 | -1.7 | |||||
| 81 | Colorado State | 0.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 51 | 3-6 | -1.8 | |||||
| 82 | Iowa State | -0.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 58 | 5-4 | -1.8 | |||||
| 83 | Utah State | 0.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 60 | 2-6 | -1.8 | |||||
| 84 | East Carolina | -0.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 93 | 5-3 | -1.9 | |||||
| 85 | Arkansas State | 0.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 100 | 2-5 | -2.1 | |||||
| 86 | North Texas | 0.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 114 | 2-6 | -2.1 | |||||
| 87 | Northern Illinois | -0.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 120 | 5-3 | -2.1 | |||||
| 88 | Vanderbilt | -0.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 71 | 2-7 | -2.2 | |||||
| 89 | Syracuse | -0.5 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 57 | 3-5 | -2.2 | |||||
| 90 | Louisiana Tech | 0.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 106 | 3-5 | -2.2 | |||||
| 91 | Louisville | -0.6 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 36 | 3-5 | -2.2 | |||||
| 92 | Maryland | -0.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 31 | 2-6 | -2.4 | |||||
| 93 | UAB | -0.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 74 | 3-5 | -2.4 | |||||
| 94 | Indiana | -0.4 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 87 | 4-5 | -2.4 | |||||
| 95 | Illinois | -0.6 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 49 | 2-6 | -2.5 | |||||
| 96 | Wyoming | -0.8 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 78 | 4-4 | -2.5 | |||||
| 97 | Marshall | -0.7 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 85 | 5-4 | -2.5 | |||||
| 98 | Northwestern | -0.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 105 | 5-4 | -2.5 | |||||
| 99 | Washington | -1.4 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 3 | 3-5 | -2.6 | |||||
| 100 | UTEP | -0.5 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 89 | 3-5 | -2.6 | |||||
| 101 | Army | -0.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 113 | 3-5 | -2.6 | |||||
| 102 | Bowling Green | -1.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 47 | 3-5 | -2.7 | |||||
| 103 | Florida Atlantic | -0.7 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 94 | 2-5 | -2.8 | |||||
| 104 | Akron | -0.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 103 | 1-7 | -3.0 | |||||
| 105 | Western Michigan | -0.7 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 109 | 4-5 | -3.0 | |||||
| 106 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -0.9 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 121 | 4-4 | -3.0 | |||||
| 107 | Colorado | -1.6 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 50 | 2-6 | -3.4 | |||||
| 108 | Memphis | -0.9 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 107 | 2-6 | -3.4 | |||||
| 109 | Miami (Ohio) | -1.2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 55 | 1-8 | -3.5 | |||||
| 110 | Tulane | -1.3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 84 | 2-6 | -3.5 | |||||
| 111 | New Mexico | -0.8 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 96 | 0-8 | -3.5 | |||||
| 112 | Ball State | -0.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 117 | 1-8 | -3.7 | |||||
| 113 | San Jose State | -2.4 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 21 | 1-6 | -4.0 | |||||
| 114 | UNLV | -1.8 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 79 | 3-6 | -4.1 | |||||
| 115 | Florida International | -2.0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 98 | 2-6 | -4.4 | |||||
| 116 | Washington State | -3.0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 22 | 1-7 | -4.9 | |||||
| 117 | New Mexico State | -2.3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 115 | 3-6 | -4.9 | |||||
| 118 | Rice | -2.6 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 71 | 0-8 | -5.1 | |||||
| 119 | Eastern Michigan | -2.4 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 90 | 0-8 | -5.1 | |||||
| 120 | Western Kentucky | -2.2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 111 | 0-8 | -5.2 |
College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 9 of the 2009 Season
College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 9 of the 2009 Season
(game results are added to the previously posted predictions as they come in)
See our current football ratings and rankings in the previous post. Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.
The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Thursday, October 29, 2009, 10:06 AM.
Memphis (105) is the underdog at home by 7.5 points against East Carolina (96). Our call: -- Result: East Carolina won 38-19 as the Tigers gave up 3 fumbles and an interception.
This game was played already on Tuesday before we made our predictions.
Virginia Tech (9) is the favorite at home by 16.5 points over North Carolina (50). Our call: -- Result: We posted our predictions on Friday, after this game had been played and won by the Tar Heels in an upset of the Hokies, 20-17.
South Florida (27) is the underdog at home by 3 points against West Virginia (16). Our call: 24-23 for the Bulls. Result: South Florida beat the Mountaineers 30-19. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 1-0, 1-0
Syracuse (88) is the underdog at home by 14.5 points against Cincinnati (4) . Our call: Cincinnati 44-7. Result: The Bearcats beat the Orange 28-7. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 2-0, 2-0
Ball State (112) is the underdog at home by 6 points against Ohio (69). Our call: The Cardinals' fall from grace this year after Brady Hoke's move to San Diego State has to be one of the biggest negative season turn-arounds in college football history. In this game the mediocre offenses of both teams are about equal, and the edge is provided by the Ohio defense. We call it for the Bobcats 27-17. Result: Ohio won 20-17. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 3-0, 2-1
Florida International (116) is the favorite at home by 3.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette (109). Our call:Louisiana-Lafayette 35-27.
Result: The Golden Panthers beat the Ragin' Cajuns 20-17 in overtime. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 3-1, 3-1
Northern Illinois (82) is the favorite at home by 12 points over Akron (106). Northern Illinois 30-13. Our call:Result: The Huskies beat the Zips 27-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 4-1, 4-1
Baylor (48) is the underdog at home by 12.5 points against Nebraska (11). Our call: The Huskers rank 4th in the nation in scoring defense with 11.4 points, tied with Alabama. However, their offense behind the current starting QB and apparently overwhelmed offensive coordination is terrible. YPPSYS sees the Huskers as 16 points better and subtracting the 3-point Bears home field advantage, we call it 27-14 for Nebraska. Result: The Huskers won 20-10 after leading 20-0 at the half, sparked by a blocked punt for a score on the Bears first offensive sequence of the game, as a timid NU offensive coordination again marked the game for the Cornflakes offense, especially in the second half. Nebraska offensive coaching coordination needs to be replaced. Thankfully, Cody Green played quarterback the entire game, and will no doubt get better as the season wears on, even though he made several critical mistakes. Other freshmen also saw quite a bit of action. Terrific to get those young talents onto the field. See the full report at HuskerExtra.com. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 5-1, 4-2
Auburn (30) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Mississippi (13). Our call: YPPSYS stats make Mississippi 6 points better, with the edge provided by their defense, but after deducting the home field advantage, that drops to 3 points. This game is probably not to be judged by normal criteria because of the Gus Malzahn/Houston Nutt history. We call it in an upset for Auburn 27-26. Result: Auburn powered to a 31-7 lead and then hung on to win 33-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 6-1, 5-2
Iowa (23) is the favorite at home by 17.5 points over Indiana (85). Our call: 30-7 for Iowa.
Result: Iowa went into the 4th quarter trailing 24-14 as QB Ricky Stanzi threw 5 interceptions, 4 in the 3rd quarter, but the Hawkeyes and Stanzi recovered to score 28 points in the closing stanza to win 42-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 7-1, 6-2
Wisconsin (47) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Purdue (55). Our call: YPPSYS calls it 21-17 for Wisconsin. Result: Wisconsin beat Purdue 37-0. How could these Boilermakers have beaten Ohio State? W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 8-1, 6-3
Ohio State (19) is the favorite at home by 44 points over New Mexico State (115). Our call: An even bigger breather, relatively speaking, for the Buckeyes. YPPSYS would make Ohio State 43 points better, with the home field advantage, 46 points. But the Ohio State offense is not that strong this year and we can not see them scoring that many points, as the New Mexico State defense is decent - it is their offense that is terrible. We call it 38-0 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes won 45-0. Go figure. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-1, 6-4
Connecticut (42) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Rutgers (58). Our call: We also get about a 1-TD difference when we include the home field advantage. UConn has played the tougher opposition so we call it 28-20 for the Huskies. Result: Connecticut took the lead in the game 24-21 with 43 seconds left in the game but then permitted an 81-yard TD pass with 33 seconds left to lose a stunner 28-24. "End game coaching" will be learned, even with 3 freshmen in the secondary. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-2, 6-5
Florida State (71) is the favorite at home by 9.5 points over North Carolina State (52). Our call: The Seminoles have a very weak defense. We call it 27-24 for the Wolfpack.
Result: Both defense collapsed as the Seminoles won 45-42. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-3, 7-5
Houston (44) is the favorite at home by 6.5 points over Southern Miss (46). Our call: YPPSYS gives both teams the same rating, with Houston having the offense and Southern Miss the defense. Home is the advantage as we call it for Cougars over the Golden Eagles 31-24.
Result: Houston won 50-43 in a wild game as Southern Miss rallied from a 40-22 deficit to tie the game 43-43 with a bit more than a minute to play, but the Cougars scored with 26 seconds left to win. Case Keenum completed 43 of 53 passes for 559 yards and 5 touchdowns. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 10-3, 8-5
Colorado (107) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Missouri (40). Our call: Big 12 football has this year taken a bit of a beating and its North Division in particular is topsy-turvy, as Kansas State and Iowa State top the standings, while division favorites Nebraska (1-2), Kansas (1-2) and Missouri (0-3) languish in the cellar. YPPSYS makes Missouri a favorite by 23 points, minus the home field advantage, makes our call 41-21 for Mizzou. Result: Missouri built up a 33-0 lead and coasted home to a 36-17 win. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 11-3, 9-5
Kent State (86) is the favorite at home by 2.5 points over Western Michigan (91). Our call: 21-16 for the Golden Flashes. Result: Kent State won 26-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 12-3, 10-5
Tulsa (45) is the favorite at home by 15.5 points over SMU (72). Our call: Tulsa 38-28.
Result: Former Hawaii head coach June Jones is working his magic at SMU this season after a tough initial last season, as the Mustangs beat the Golden Hurricane 27-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 12-4, 11-5
Boise State (8) is the favorite at home by 35 points over San Jose State (114). Our call: Boise State will surely go undefeated this year and BCS will have a gigantic problem when the bowl matchups are made. In this game, get out the calculators as the top and the bottom of the college football spectrum meet. YPPSYS makes the Broncos 47 points better plus the home field advantage makes it 50 full. We call it 56-6 for Boise State.
Result: Boise State won 45-7. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-4, 12-5
UTEP (97) is the favorite at home by 7 points over UAB (95). Our call: UTEP 36-34.
Result: UAB beat UTEP 38-33 in spite of putting up only 378 yards to the Miners 606 yards total offense. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-5, 13-5
Miami of Ohio (110) is the underdog at home by 5.5 points against Toledo (65). Our call: The defenses are equal, but Toledo has an offense while the RedHawks do not. 31-17 for the Rockets. Result: In a real surprise, the RedHawks, previously winless at 0-8, beat the Rockets 31-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-6, 13-6
Louisville (93) is the favorite at home by 3 points over Arkansas State (84). Our call: YPPSYS favors Arkansas State 24-23. Result: Louisville won 21-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-7, 13-7
Texas Tech (15) is the favorite at home by 6 points over Kansas (33). Our call: It is hard to judge the Red Raiders currently because of their quarterback situation. YPPSYS favors the Red Raiders 37-31. Result: 42-21 for Texas Tech. Oops, we forgot to change our pick one way or the other to deviate from the spread. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-7, 13-7-1
Navy (60) is the favorite at home by 6.5 points over Temple (78). Our call: Navy 24-17.
Result: Behind 267 rushing yards by freshman Bernard Pierce, Temple under head coach Al Golden won 27-24 and became bowl eligible for the first time in 30 years. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-8, 13-8-1
Illinois (104) is the underdog at home by 7 points against Michigan (49). Our call: 31-17 for Michigan. Result: Illinois won 38-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-9, 13-9-1
Wake Forest (63) is the underdog at home by 7 points against Miami of Florida (17). Our call: Miami 30-17. Result: The Demon Deacons put up 559 yards to only 348 for the Hurricanes, who came back from a 27-14 deficit in the 4th quarter to win 28-27. One can not emphasize enough that coaches have to learn that SCORING and ultimately WINNING is the name of the game, and that gaining yards between the end zones is not the objective. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 15-9, 13-10-1
Texas A&M (64) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Iowa State (76). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Aggies 21-16. Result: Texas A&M won 35-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 16-9, 13-11-1
Virginia (67) is the favorite at home by 7.5 points over Duke (83). Our call: We somehow failed to call this game, perhaps because our calculated spread was the same as the line of 7.5 points. Result: Duke won 28-17.
Arizona State (43) is the underdog at home by 6.5 points against California (22). Our call: The powerful Cal offense meets the strong Sun Devil defense. YPPSYS stats make Cal 9 points better, minus the Arizona State home field advantage makes our call 27-21 for Cal.
Result: Cal won 23-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 17-9, 14-11-1
Boston College (39) is the favorite at home by 5 points over Central Michigan (28). Our call: The Eagles are doing well at 5-3 in spite of problematical quarterbacking, especially on the road. They can be lucky to have a home game. The Chippewas (7-1), on the other hand, have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Dan LeFevour, who this year in beating Michigan State 29-27 became the MAC's all-time total offense leader. We call it for Central Michigan 24-23.
Result: Boston College won 31-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 17-10, 14-12-1
Florida (1) is the favorite at home by 15 points over Georgia (38). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Gators by 32 points, 45-13. Result: Florida won 41-17. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 18-10, 15-12-1
TCU (5) is the favorite at home by 34.5 points over UNLV (113) . Our call: We see this game as a breather for TCU 54-0. Result: TCU won 41-0. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 19-10, 16-12-1
Colorado State (75) is the underdog at home by 6.5 points against Air Force (68). Our call: YPPSYS makes Air Force 2 points better, but with the home field advantage, this gives the odds to Colorado State, and we call it 17-16 for the Rams.
Result: Air Force won 34-16. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 19-11, 16-13-1
Florida Atlantic (103) is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against Middle Tennesee State (81). Our call: Middle Tennesee 31-24. Result: Middle Tennessee won 27-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 20-11, 17-13-1
Oregon State (53) is the favorite at home by 9.5 points over UCLA (66). Our call: Oregon State 30-20. Result: UCLA came back from a 16-0 deficit to tie the game at 19-19 but Oregon State won 26-19. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 21-11, 17-14-1
Nevada (51) is the favorite at home by 25 points over Hawaii (62). Our call: Nevada 41-34.
Result: Nevada won 31-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 22-11, 18-14-1
Northwestern (92) is the underdog at home by 15.5 points against Penn State (7) . Our call: 41-14 for the Nittany Lions. Result: After trailing 13-10 at halftime, the Nittany Lions won 34-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 23-11, 19-14-1
North Texas (90) is the favorite at home by 11.5 points over Western Kentucky (120). Our call: North Texas 44-13. Result: North Texas won 68-49 in anything but a defensive struggle. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 24-11, 20-14-1
Fresno State (36) is the favorite at home by 17.5 points over Utah State (79). Fresno State 35-17. Our call:Result: Fresno State won 31-27. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 25-11, 20-15-1
Idaho (57) is the favorite at home by 2.5 points over Louisiana Tech (89). Our call: Idaho 34-21. Result: The Vandals came back from a 2 TD deficit to win 35-34. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 26-11, 20-16-1
Arkansas (37) is the favorite at home by 35 points over Eastern Michigan (117). Our call: Our stats make the Razorbacks 36-point favorites plus the home field advantage. We call it 52-13 for Arkansas. Result: Arkansas won 63-27. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 27-11, 21-16-1
Kentucky (59) is the favorite at home by 3.5 points over Mississippi State (74). Our call: Kentucky by 7 points, 27-20.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Wildcats 31-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 27-12, 21-17-1
LSU (25) is the favorite at home by 36 points over Tulane (108). Our call: LSU has a strong defense and a weak offense so we call it 36-3 for the Tigers.
Result: LSU won 42-0. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 28-12, 21-18-1
Minnesota (73) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Michigan State (31). Our call: Michigan State 34-24. Result: Minnesota won 42-34. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 28-13, 21-19-1
Notre Dame (54) is the favorite at home by 27.5 points over Washington State (119). Our call: A breather in the schedule of the Fighting Irish. 49-10 for Notre Dame.
Result: Notre Dame won 40-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 29-13, 21-20-1
Oklahoma (12) is the favorite at home by 28 points over Kansas State (77). Our call: 38-14 for the Sooners. Result: Oklahoma won 42-30. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 30-13, 22-20-1
Oklahoma State (24) is the underdog at home by 9 points against Texas (6). Our call: YPPSYS also puts the spread at 9. We go in favor of the strong Texas defense 27-17.
Result: Texas won 41-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 31-13, 23-20-1
Oregon (10) is the underdog at home by 3 points against USC (2). Our call: USC 34-24.
Result: Oregon won 47-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 31-14, 23-21-1
San Diego State (61) is the favorite at home by 15.5 points over New Mexico (111). Our call: The Aztecs by 38-14. Result: San Diego State won 23-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 32-14, 23-22-1
Tennessee (21) is the favorite at home by 5.5 points over South Carolina (26). Our call: YPPSYS favors Tennessee by 5-6 points as well. We go with the better defense and Tennessee 24-17. Result: Tennessee won 31-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 33-14, 24-22-1
Troy State (56) is the favorite at home by 16 points over Louisiana-Monroe (41). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Warkhawks 24-23.
Result: Troy won 42-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 33-15, 24-23-1
Utah (14) is the favorite at home by 17 points over Wyoming (100). Our call: Utah 38-7.
Result: Utah won 22-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 34-15, 24-24-1
Vanderbilt (87) is the underdog at home by 11.5 points against Georgia Tech (35). Our call: Georgia Tech 27-17.
Result: Georgia Tech won 56-31. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 35-15, 24-25-1
For the season, after nine weeks, we are thus far 350-141 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 208-226-6 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole. The problem, as we discovered this week, is that the home field advantage is greater than we have calculated, so that many home teams beat the spread because of that greater home field advantage. Next week, we are going to give greater weight to the home team than we have in the past.
(game results are added to the previously posted predictions as they come in)
See our current football ratings and rankings in the previous post. Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.
The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Thursday, October 29, 2009, 10:06 AM.
Memphis (105) is the underdog at home by 7.5 points against East Carolina (96). Our call: -- Result: East Carolina won 38-19 as the Tigers gave up 3 fumbles and an interception.
This game was played already on Tuesday before we made our predictions.
Virginia Tech (9) is the favorite at home by 16.5 points over North Carolina (50). Our call: -- Result: We posted our predictions on Friday, after this game had been played and won by the Tar Heels in an upset of the Hokies, 20-17.
South Florida (27) is the underdog at home by 3 points against West Virginia (16). Our call: 24-23 for the Bulls. Result: South Florida beat the Mountaineers 30-19. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 1-0, 1-0
Syracuse (88) is the underdog at home by 14.5 points against Cincinnati (4) . Our call: Cincinnati 44-7. Result: The Bearcats beat the Orange 28-7. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 2-0, 2-0
Ball State (112) is the underdog at home by 6 points against Ohio (69). Our call: The Cardinals' fall from grace this year after Brady Hoke's move to San Diego State has to be one of the biggest negative season turn-arounds in college football history. In this game the mediocre offenses of both teams are about equal, and the edge is provided by the Ohio defense. We call it for the Bobcats 27-17. Result: Ohio won 20-17. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 3-0, 2-1
Florida International (116) is the favorite at home by 3.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette (109). Our call:Louisiana-Lafayette 35-27.
Result: The Golden Panthers beat the Ragin' Cajuns 20-17 in overtime. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 3-1, 3-1
Northern Illinois (82) is the favorite at home by 12 points over Akron (106). Northern Illinois 30-13. Our call:Result: The Huskies beat the Zips 27-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 4-1, 4-1
Baylor (48) is the underdog at home by 12.5 points against Nebraska (11). Our call: The Huskers rank 4th in the nation in scoring defense with 11.4 points, tied with Alabama. However, their offense behind the current starting QB and apparently overwhelmed offensive coordination is terrible. YPPSYS sees the Huskers as 16 points better and subtracting the 3-point Bears home field advantage, we call it 27-14 for Nebraska. Result: The Huskers won 20-10 after leading 20-0 at the half, sparked by a blocked punt for a score on the Bears first offensive sequence of the game, as a timid NU offensive coordination again marked the game for the Cornflakes offense, especially in the second half. Nebraska offensive coaching coordination needs to be replaced. Thankfully, Cody Green played quarterback the entire game, and will no doubt get better as the season wears on, even though he made several critical mistakes. Other freshmen also saw quite a bit of action. Terrific to get those young talents onto the field. See the full report at HuskerExtra.com. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 5-1, 4-2
Auburn (30) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Mississippi (13). Our call: YPPSYS stats make Mississippi 6 points better, with the edge provided by their defense, but after deducting the home field advantage, that drops to 3 points. This game is probably not to be judged by normal criteria because of the Gus Malzahn/Houston Nutt history. We call it in an upset for Auburn 27-26. Result: Auburn powered to a 31-7 lead and then hung on to win 33-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 6-1, 5-2
Iowa (23) is the favorite at home by 17.5 points over Indiana (85). Our call: 30-7 for Iowa.
Result: Iowa went into the 4th quarter trailing 24-14 as QB Ricky Stanzi threw 5 interceptions, 4 in the 3rd quarter, but the Hawkeyes and Stanzi recovered to score 28 points in the closing stanza to win 42-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 7-1, 6-2
Wisconsin (47) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Purdue (55). Our call: YPPSYS calls it 21-17 for Wisconsin. Result: Wisconsin beat Purdue 37-0. How could these Boilermakers have beaten Ohio State? W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 8-1, 6-3
Ohio State (19) is the favorite at home by 44 points over New Mexico State (115). Our call: An even bigger breather, relatively speaking, for the Buckeyes. YPPSYS would make Ohio State 43 points better, with the home field advantage, 46 points. But the Ohio State offense is not that strong this year and we can not see them scoring that many points, as the New Mexico State defense is decent - it is their offense that is terrible. We call it 38-0 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes won 45-0. Go figure. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-1, 6-4
Connecticut (42) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Rutgers (58). Our call: We also get about a 1-TD difference when we include the home field advantage. UConn has played the tougher opposition so we call it 28-20 for the Huskies. Result: Connecticut took the lead in the game 24-21 with 43 seconds left in the game but then permitted an 81-yard TD pass with 33 seconds left to lose a stunner 28-24. "End game coaching" will be learned, even with 3 freshmen in the secondary. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-2, 6-5
Florida State (71) is the favorite at home by 9.5 points over North Carolina State (52). Our call: The Seminoles have a very weak defense. We call it 27-24 for the Wolfpack.
Result: Both defense collapsed as the Seminoles won 45-42. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 9-3, 7-5
Houston (44) is the favorite at home by 6.5 points over Southern Miss (46). Our call: YPPSYS gives both teams the same rating, with Houston having the offense and Southern Miss the defense. Home is the advantage as we call it for Cougars over the Golden Eagles 31-24.
Result: Houston won 50-43 in a wild game as Southern Miss rallied from a 40-22 deficit to tie the game 43-43 with a bit more than a minute to play, but the Cougars scored with 26 seconds left to win. Case Keenum completed 43 of 53 passes for 559 yards and 5 touchdowns. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 10-3, 8-5
Colorado (107) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Missouri (40). Our call: Big 12 football has this year taken a bit of a beating and its North Division in particular is topsy-turvy, as Kansas State and Iowa State top the standings, while division favorites Nebraska (1-2), Kansas (1-2) and Missouri (0-3) languish in the cellar. YPPSYS makes Missouri a favorite by 23 points, minus the home field advantage, makes our call 41-21 for Mizzou. Result: Missouri built up a 33-0 lead and coasted home to a 36-17 win. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 11-3, 9-5
Kent State (86) is the favorite at home by 2.5 points over Western Michigan (91). Our call: 21-16 for the Golden Flashes. Result: Kent State won 26-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 12-3, 10-5
Tulsa (45) is the favorite at home by 15.5 points over SMU (72). Our call: Tulsa 38-28.
Result: Former Hawaii head coach June Jones is working his magic at SMU this season after a tough initial last season, as the Mustangs beat the Golden Hurricane 27-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 12-4, 11-5
Boise State (8) is the favorite at home by 35 points over San Jose State (114). Our call: Boise State will surely go undefeated this year and BCS will have a gigantic problem when the bowl matchups are made. In this game, get out the calculators as the top and the bottom of the college football spectrum meet. YPPSYS makes the Broncos 47 points better plus the home field advantage makes it 50 full. We call it 56-6 for Boise State.
Result: Boise State won 45-7. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-4, 12-5
UTEP (97) is the favorite at home by 7 points over UAB (95). Our call: UTEP 36-34.
Result: UAB beat UTEP 38-33 in spite of putting up only 378 yards to the Miners 606 yards total offense. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-5, 13-5
Miami of Ohio (110) is the underdog at home by 5.5 points against Toledo (65). Our call: The defenses are equal, but Toledo has an offense while the RedHawks do not. 31-17 for the Rockets. Result: In a real surprise, the RedHawks, previously winless at 0-8, beat the Rockets 31-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-6, 13-6
Louisville (93) is the favorite at home by 3 points over Arkansas State (84). Our call: YPPSYS favors Arkansas State 24-23. Result: Louisville won 21-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 13-7, 13-7
Texas Tech (15) is the favorite at home by 6 points over Kansas (33). Our call: It is hard to judge the Red Raiders currently because of their quarterback situation. YPPSYS favors the Red Raiders 37-31. Result: 42-21 for Texas Tech. Oops, we forgot to change our pick one way or the other to deviate from the spread. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-7, 13-7-1
Navy (60) is the favorite at home by 6.5 points over Temple (78). Our call: Navy 24-17.
Result: Behind 267 rushing yards by freshman Bernard Pierce, Temple under head coach Al Golden won 27-24 and became bowl eligible for the first time in 30 years. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-8, 13-8-1
Illinois (104) is the underdog at home by 7 points against Michigan (49). Our call: 31-17 for Michigan. Result: Illinois won 38-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 14-9, 13-9-1
Wake Forest (63) is the underdog at home by 7 points against Miami of Florida (17). Our call: Miami 30-17. Result: The Demon Deacons put up 559 yards to only 348 for the Hurricanes, who came back from a 27-14 deficit in the 4th quarter to win 28-27. One can not emphasize enough that coaches have to learn that SCORING and ultimately WINNING is the name of the game, and that gaining yards between the end zones is not the objective. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 15-9, 13-10-1
Texas A&M (64) is the favorite at home by 7 points over Iowa State (76). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Aggies 21-16. Result: Texas A&M won 35-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 16-9, 13-11-1
Virginia (67) is the favorite at home by 7.5 points over Duke (83). Our call: We somehow failed to call this game, perhaps because our calculated spread was the same as the line of 7.5 points. Result: Duke won 28-17.
Arizona State (43) is the underdog at home by 6.5 points against California (22). Our call: The powerful Cal offense meets the strong Sun Devil defense. YPPSYS stats make Cal 9 points better, minus the Arizona State home field advantage makes our call 27-21 for Cal.
Result: Cal won 23-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 17-9, 14-11-1
Boston College (39) is the favorite at home by 5 points over Central Michigan (28). Our call: The Eagles are doing well at 5-3 in spite of problematical quarterbacking, especially on the road. They can be lucky to have a home game. The Chippewas (7-1), on the other hand, have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Dan LeFevour, who this year in beating Michigan State 29-27 became the MAC's all-time total offense leader. We call it for Central Michigan 24-23.
Result: Boston College won 31-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 17-10, 14-12-1
Florida (1) is the favorite at home by 15 points over Georgia (38). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Gators by 32 points, 45-13. Result: Florida won 41-17. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 18-10, 15-12-1
TCU (5) is the favorite at home by 34.5 points over UNLV (113) . Our call: We see this game as a breather for TCU 54-0. Result: TCU won 41-0. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 19-10, 16-12-1
Colorado State (75) is the underdog at home by 6.5 points against Air Force (68). Our call: YPPSYS makes Air Force 2 points better, but with the home field advantage, this gives the odds to Colorado State, and we call it 17-16 for the Rams.
Result: Air Force won 34-16. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 19-11, 16-13-1
Florida Atlantic (103) is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against Middle Tennesee State (81). Our call: Middle Tennesee 31-24. Result: Middle Tennessee won 27-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 20-11, 17-13-1
Oregon State (53) is the favorite at home by 9.5 points over UCLA (66). Our call: Oregon State 30-20. Result: UCLA came back from a 16-0 deficit to tie the game at 19-19 but Oregon State won 26-19. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 21-11, 17-14-1
Nevada (51) is the favorite at home by 25 points over Hawaii (62). Our call: Nevada 41-34.
Result: Nevada won 31-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 22-11, 18-14-1
Northwestern (92) is the underdog at home by 15.5 points against Penn State (7) . Our call: 41-14 for the Nittany Lions. Result: After trailing 13-10 at halftime, the Nittany Lions won 34-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 23-11, 19-14-1
North Texas (90) is the favorite at home by 11.5 points over Western Kentucky (120). Our call: North Texas 44-13. Result: North Texas won 68-49 in anything but a defensive struggle. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 24-11, 20-14-1
Fresno State (36) is the favorite at home by 17.5 points over Utah State (79). Fresno State 35-17. Our call:Result: Fresno State won 31-27. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 25-11, 20-15-1
Idaho (57) is the favorite at home by 2.5 points over Louisiana Tech (89). Our call: Idaho 34-21. Result: The Vandals came back from a 2 TD deficit to win 35-34. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 26-11, 20-16-1
Arkansas (37) is the favorite at home by 35 points over Eastern Michigan (117). Our call: Our stats make the Razorbacks 36-point favorites plus the home field advantage. We call it 52-13 for Arkansas. Result: Arkansas won 63-27. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 27-11, 21-16-1
Kentucky (59) is the favorite at home by 3.5 points over Mississippi State (74). Our call: Kentucky by 7 points, 27-20.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Wildcats 31-24. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 27-12, 21-17-1
LSU (25) is the favorite at home by 36 points over Tulane (108). Our call: LSU has a strong defense and a weak offense so we call it 36-3 for the Tigers.
Result: LSU won 42-0. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 28-12, 21-18-1
Minnesota (73) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points against Michigan State (31). Our call: Michigan State 34-24. Result: Minnesota won 42-34. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 28-13, 21-19-1
Notre Dame (54) is the favorite at home by 27.5 points over Washington State (119). Our call: A breather in the schedule of the Fighting Irish. 49-10 for Notre Dame.
Result: Notre Dame won 40-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 29-13, 21-20-1
Oklahoma (12) is the favorite at home by 28 points over Kansas State (77). Our call: 38-14 for the Sooners. Result: Oklahoma won 42-30. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 30-13, 22-20-1
Oklahoma State (24) is the underdog at home by 9 points against Texas (6). Our call: YPPSYS also puts the spread at 9. We go in favor of the strong Texas defense 27-17.
Result: Texas won 41-14. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 31-13, 23-20-1
Oregon (10) is the underdog at home by 3 points against USC (2). Our call: USC 34-24.
Result: Oregon won 47-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 31-14, 23-21-1
San Diego State (61) is the favorite at home by 15.5 points over New Mexico (111). Our call: The Aztecs by 38-14. Result: San Diego State won 23-20. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 32-14, 23-22-1
Tennessee (21) is the favorite at home by 5.5 points over South Carolina (26). Our call: YPPSYS favors Tennessee by 5-6 points as well. We go with the better defense and Tennessee 24-17. Result: Tennessee won 31-13. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 33-14, 24-22-1
Troy State (56) is the favorite at home by 16 points over Louisiana-Monroe (41). Our call: YPPSYS favors the Warkhawks 24-23.
Result: Troy won 42-21. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 33-15, 24-23-1
Utah (14) is the favorite at home by 17 points over Wyoming (100). Our call: Utah 38-7.
Result: Utah won 22-10. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 34-15, 24-24-1
Vanderbilt (87) is the underdog at home by 11.5 points against Georgia Tech (35). Our call: Georgia Tech 27-17.
Result: Georgia Tech won 56-31. W-L Winner and Against the Spread: 35-15, 24-25-1
For the season, after nine weeks, we are thus far 350-141 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 208-226-6 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole. The problem, as we discovered this week, is that the home field advantage is greater than we have calculated, so that many home teams beat the spread because of that greater home field advantage. Next week, we are going to give greater weight to the home team than we have in the past.
Friday, October 30, 2009
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS) through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 games
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - DIVISION I-A (FBS)
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule and adjustment for losses through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 of regular season games
NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 55 for example, .55 is subtracted (rounded up as here to .6 or down to the nearest figure), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. For Pittsburgh, for example, we start with 6.4 as YPP OFF, subtract the 5.0 of the YPP DEF = 1.4 which is the NAYPPA. A penalty of .1 is also substracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, and .1 for more than 6.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the best defense is rated ahead and in the case of a tie, there the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first.
The weekly ratings show that Cincinnati is slowly but surely advancing to the top of the list, albeit against weaker competition than in the SEC, where Florida still has the edge over Alabama. USC remains 2nd but continues to roll up unimpressive wins in spite of a team that is not playing as well as its stats indicate that it actually is.
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule and adjustment for losses through October 24, 2009, after Week 8 of regular season games
NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 55 for example, .55 is subtracted (rounded up as here to .6 or down to the nearest figure), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. For Pittsburgh, for example, we start with 6.4 as YPP OFF, subtract the 5.0 of the YPP DEF = 1.4 which is the NAYPPA. A penalty of .1 is also substracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, and .1 for more than 6.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the best defense is rated ahead and in the case of a tie, there the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first.
The weekly ratings show that Cincinnati is slowly but surely advancing to the top of the list, albeit against weaker competition than in the SEC, where Florida still has the edge over Alabama. USC remains 2nd but continues to roll up unimpressive wins in spite of a team that is not playing as well as its stats indicate that it actually is.
| Rank | After 8th Week | NAYPPA | YPP OFF | YPP DEF | Schedule | W-L | Rating | |||||
| 1 | Florida | 2.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 19 | 7-0 | 2.6 | |||||
| 2 | USC | 2.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 17 | 6-1 | 2.5 | |||||
| 3 | Cincinnati | 2.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 52 | 7-0 | 2.4 | |||||
| 4 | Alabama | 2.1 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 10 | 8-0 | 2.0 | |||||
| 5 | TCU | 2.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 29 | 7-0 | 1.8 | |||||
| 6 | Texas | 2.0 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 35 | 7-0 | 1.6 | |||||
| 7 | Penn State | 2.4 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 78 | 7-1 | 1.4 | |||||
| 8 | Boise State | 1.8 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 47 | 7-0 | 1.3 | |||||
| 9 | Virginia Tech | 1.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1 | 5-2 | 1.1 | |||||
| 10 | Oregon | 1.4 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 9 | 6-1 | 1.1 | |||||
| 11 | Nebraska | 1.9 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 20 | 4-3 | 1.1 | |||||
| 12 | Oklahoma | 1.7 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 23 | 4-3 | 0.9 | |||||
| 13 | Mississippi | 1.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 44 | 5-2 | 0.6 | |||||
| 14 | Utah | 1.3 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 54 | 6-1 | 0.6 | |||||
| 15 | Texas Tech | 1.8 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 58 | 5-3 | 0.6 | |||||
| 16 | West Virginia | 1.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 77 | 6-1 | 0.6 | |||||
| 17 | Miami (Florida) | 1.1 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 6 | 5-2 | 0.5 | |||||
| 18 | Arizona | 1.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 14 | 5-2 | 0.5 | |||||
| 19 | Ohio State | 1.4 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 49 | 6-2 | 0.5 | |||||
| 20 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 55 | 7-1 | 0.5 | |||||
| 21 | Tennessee | 1.3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 12 | 3-4 | 0.4 | |||||
| 22 | California | 1.2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 34 | 5-2 | 0.4 | |||||
| 23 | Iowa | 0.4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 13 | 8-0 | 0.3 | |||||
| 24 | Oklahoma State | 1.2 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 70 | 6-1 | 0.3 | |||||
| 25 | LSU | 0.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 18 | 6-1 | 0.2 | |||||
| 26 | South Carolina | 0.9 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 33 | 6-2 | 0.2 | |||||
| 27 | South Florida | 1.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 83 | 5-2 | 0.1 | |||||
| 28 | Central Michigan | 1.3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 101 | 7-1 | 0.1 | |||||
| 29 | Stanford | 1.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 32 | 5-3 | 0.0 | |||||
| 30 | Auburn | 0.8 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 22 | 5-3 | -0.1 | |||||
| 31 | Michigan State | 1.2 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 45 | 4-4 | -0.1 | |||||
| 32 | BYU | 0.9 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 48 | 6-2 | -0.1 | |||||
| 33 | Kansas | 1.0 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 63 | 5-2 | -0.1 | |||||
| 34 | Clemson | 0.5 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 7 | 4-3 | -0.2 | |||||
| 35 | Georgia Tech | 0.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 8 | 7-1 | -0.3 | |||||
| 36 | Fresno State | 0.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 26 | 3-3 | -0.3 | |||||
| 37 | Arkansas | 0.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3 | 3-4 | -0.4 | |||||
| 38 | Georgia | 0.2 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4 | 4-3 | -0.4 | |||||
| 39 | Boston College | 0.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 30 | 5-3 | -0.4 | |||||
| 40 | Missouri | 0.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 41 | 4-3 | -0.5 | |||||
| 41 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.5 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 85 | 4-3 | -0.5 | |||||
| 42 | Connecticut | 0.7 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 56 | 4-3 | -0.6 | |||||
| 43 | Arizona State | 0.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 67 | 4-3 | -0.6 | |||||
| 44 | Houston | 0.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 72 | 6-1 | -0.6 | |||||
| 45 | Tulsa | 1.0 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 103 | 4-3 | -0.6 | |||||
| 46 | Southern Mississippi | 1.2 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 118 | 5-3 | -0.6 | |||||
| 47 | Wisconsin | 0.2 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 36 | 5-2 | -0.7 | |||||
| 48 | Baylor | 0.7 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 46 | 3-4 | -0.7 | |||||
| 49 | Michigan | 0.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 60 | 5-3 | -0.7 | |||||
| 50 | North Carolina | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 65 | 4-3 | -0.7 | |||||
| 51 | Nevada | 0.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 79 | 4-3 | -0.7 | |||||
| 52 | North Carolina State | 0.7 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 80 | 3-4 | -0.7 | |||||
| 53 | Oregon State | 0.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 15 | 4-3 | -0.8 | |||||
| 54 | Notre Dame | 0.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 20 | 5-2 | -0.8 | |||||
| 55 | Purdue | 0.8 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 51 | 3-5 | -0.8 | |||||
| 56 | Troy | 0.5 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 86 | 5-2 | -0.9 | |||||
| 57 | Idaho | 0.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 93 | 6-2 | -0.9 | |||||
| 58 | Rutgers | 0.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 113 | 5-2 | -1.0 | |||||
| 59 | Kentucky | -0.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 16 | 4-3 | -1.1 | |||||
| 60 | Navy | 0.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 66 | 6-2 | -1.1 | |||||
| 61 | San Diego State | 0.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 68 | 3-4 | -1.1 | |||||
| 62 | Hawai'i | 0.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 82 | 2-5 | -1.1 | |||||
| 63 | Wake Forest | 0.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 37 | 4-4 | -1.2 | |||||
| 64 | Texas A&M | 0.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 57 | 4-3 | -1.2 | |||||
| 65 | Toledo | 0.6 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 87 | 4-4 | -1.2 | |||||
| 66 | UCLA | -0.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5 | 3-4 | -1.3 | |||||
| 67 | Virginia | -0.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 25 | 3-4 | -1.3 | |||||
| 68 | Air Force | 0.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 69 | 4-4 | -1.3 | |||||
| 69 | Ohio | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 98 | 5-3 | -1.3 | |||||
| 70 | UCF | 0.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 115 | 4-3 | -1.3 | |||||
| 71 | Florida State | -0.3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 11 | 2-4 | -1.4 | |||||
| 72 | SMU | 0.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 61 | 3-4 | -1.4 | |||||
| 73 | Minnesota | -0.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 21 | 4-4 | -1.5 | |||||
| 74 | Mississippi State | -0.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 26 | 3-5 | -1.5 | |||||
| 75 | Colorado State | 0.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 39 | 3-5 | -1.5 | |||||
| 76 | Iowa State | -0.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 59 | 5-3 | -1.5 | |||||
| 77 | Kansas State | -0.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 81 | 5-3 | -1.5 | |||||
| 78 | Temple | 0.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 111 | 5-2 | -1.5 | |||||
| 79 | Utah State | 0.3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 75 | 2-5 | -1.6 | |||||
| 80 | Buffalo | 0.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 90 | 3-5 | -1.6 | |||||
| 81 | Middle Tennessee | 0.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 97 | 4-3 | -1.6 | |||||
| 82 | Northern Illinois | -0.1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 110 | 4-3 | -1.7 | |||||
| 83 | Duke | -0.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 89 | 4-3 | -1.8 | |||||
| 84 | Arkansas State | 0.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 99 | 2-4 | -1.8 | |||||
| 85 | Indiana | -0.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 94 | 4-4 | -1.9 | |||||
| 86 | Kent State | 0.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 109 | 4-4 | -1.9 | |||||
| 87 | Vanderbilt | -0.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 73 | 2-6 | -2.0 | |||||
| 88 | Syracuse | -0.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 74 | 3-4 | -2.0 | |||||
| 89 | Louisiana Tech | 0.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 114 | 3-4 | -2.0 | |||||
| 90 | North Texas | 0.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 91 | 1-6 | -2.1 | |||||
| 91 | Western Michigan | -0.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 100 | 4-4 | -2.1 | |||||
| 92 | Northwestern | -0.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 116 | 5-3 | -2.1 | |||||
| 93 | Louisville | -0.7 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 28 | 2-5 | -2.2 | |||||
| 94 | Marshall | -0.7 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 84 | 5-3 | -2.2 | |||||
| 95 | UAB | -0.4 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 71 | 2-5 | -2.3 | |||||
| 96 | East Carolina | -0.6 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 96 | 4-3 | -2.3 | |||||
| 97 | UTEP | -0.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 64 | 3-4 | -2.4 | |||||
| 98 | Maryland | -0.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 38 | 2-6 | -2.5 | |||||
| 99 | Bowling Green | -1.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 50 | 3-5 | -2.5 | |||||
| 100 | Wyoming | -0.8 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 95 | 4-3 | -2.5 | |||||
| 101 | Washington | -1.4 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 2 | 3-5 | -2.6 | |||||
| 102 | Army | -0.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 112 | 3-5 | -2.6 | |||||
| 103 | Florida Atlantic | -0.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 88 | 2-4 | -2.7 | |||||
| 104 | Illinois | -0.9 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 53 | 1-6 | -2.8 | |||||
| 105 | Memphis | -0.8 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 104 | 2-5 | -3.0 | |||||
| 106 | Akron | -0.6 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 106 | 1-6 | -3.0 | |||||
| 107 | Colorado | -1.6 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 42 | 2-5 | -3.1 | |||||
| 108 | Tulane | -1.0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 92 | 2-5 | -3.1 | |||||
| 109 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -1.2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 120 | 4-3 | -3.2 | |||||
| 110 | Miami (Ohio) | -1.3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 31 | 0-8 | -3.3 | |||||
| 111 | New Mexico | -0.8 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 107 | 0-7 | -3.4 | |||||
| 112 | Ball State | -0.9 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 117 | 1-7 | -3.6 | |||||
| 113 | UNLV | -1.5 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 105 | 3-5 | -3.8 | |||||
| 114 | San Jose State | -2.4 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 24 | 1-5 | -3.9 | |||||
| 115 | New Mexico State | -2.0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 119 | 3-5 | -4.3 | |||||
| 116 | Florida International | -2.2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 76 | 1-6 | -4.4 | |||||
| 117 | Eastern Michigan | -2.2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 102 | 0-7 | -4.4 | |||||
| 118 | Rice | -2.6 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 62 | 0-8 | -4.5 | |||||
| 119 | Washington State | -3.0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 27 | 1-6 | -4.8 | |||||
| 120 | Western Kentucky | -2.4 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 108 | 0-7 | -5.2 |
Monday, October 26, 2009
College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 8 2009 Season
College Football Game Predictions AND Results Week 7 2009 Season
Odds used here were posted according to the odds posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Tuesday, October 20, 2009 at 4:57:27 p.m.
Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.
However, we tweak our stats in some cases and this week we are treating the home field advantage differently, since a ca. 2.66-point home field advantage at Massey Ratings appears to make a bigger point difference in the actual spread. Massey has the average score this season for 2372 football games at 34.9 points for the winner and 15.79 points for the loser, so that the average number of points scored in a game by both teams is 50.7 points, with an average difference between the winner and loser of 19.1 points. When we look at all games, regardless of who won or lost, the home team score was 27.52 on average and the visiting team had 23.28 on average, so that the actual point spread there is 4.24 points.
We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.
Going into this week we are 278-107 W-L in picking the game winner, including some games that had no official line, and we are 162-169-4 against the spread.
Here are our predictions for the 8th Week, which has some great games on tap:
UTEP was the underdog at home by 7.5 points against Tulsa. Our call: Tulsa 38-17 Result: After going into the lead 24-13 in the 4th quarter, Tulsa went into a timid running offense, which went nowhere, led to 2 quick punts, and thus handed the game to UTEP, who won 28-24. Stupid coaching leads to losses. Losers play to protect a lead. Either you play to win or you may/will lose. Prediction Record: 0-1 in picking the winner and 0-1 against the spread.
North Carolina is favored at home by 3 points over Florida State. Our call: North Carolina 31-17 Result: Florida State won 30-27 as Christian Ponder of the Seminoles passed for 395 yards. Prediction Record: 0-2 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.
Army is the underdog at home by 10 points against Rutgers. Our call: Rutgers 24-17 Result: Rutgers won 27-10. Prediction Record: 1-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.
Bowling Green is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Central Michigan. Our call: Central Michigan 38-24 Result: Central Michigan won 24-10. Prediction Record: 2-2 in picking the winner and 1-3 against the spread.
Marshall is favored at home by 7 points over UAB. Our call: Marshall 31-21 Result: Marshall won 27-7. Prediction Record: 3-2 in picking the winner and 2-3 against the spread.
West Virginia is favored at home by 7 points over Connecticut. Our call: West Virginia 38-21 Result: West Virginia won 28-24 and deserved to lose this game as the Huskies put up 499 yards total offense to the Mountaineers 381. Prediction Record: 4-2 in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.
Pittsburgh is favored at home by 7 points over South Florida. Our call: Pittsburgh 27-26 Result: The Panters beat the Bulls 41-14. Prediction Record: 5-2 in picking the winner and 2-5 against the spread.
Northwestern is favored at home by 5.5 points over Indiana. Our call: Indiana 24-23 Result: Northwestern came back from a 28-3 deficit to win 29-28 after Indiana, ahead 28-19 went for a TD rather than a field goal with 4th and 1 at the goal line and did not make it. You have to play the percentages to win. Prediction Record: 5-3 in picking the winner and 3-5 against the spread.
Ohio State is favored at home by 18 points over Minnesota. Our call: Ohio State 41-21 Result: Ohio State won 38-7 after leading only 7-0 at halftime. Prediction Record: 6-3 in picking the winner and 4-5 against the spread.
Purdue is favored at home by 10 points over Illinois. Our call: Purdue 35-14 Result: Purdue beat Illinois 24-14. Prediction Record: 7-3 in picking the winner and 4-5-1 against the spread.
Virginia is the underdog at home by 4.5 points against Georgia Tech. Our call: Virginia 24-23 Result: Georgia Tech beat Virginia 34-9. Prediction Record: 7-4 in picking the winner and 4-6-1 against the spread.
Mississippi is favored at home by 5.5 points over Arkansas. Our call: The stats would call this game for Mississippi by about 7 points, but the Razorbacks have improved tremendously and should have beaten Florida last week. We call it 31-30 for Arkansas. Result: Mississippi beat Arkansas 30-17. Prediction Record: 7-5 in picking the winner and 4-7-1 against the spread.
Kansas State is favored at home by 4 points over Colorado. Our call: Kansas State 31-24 Result: Kansas State beat Colorado 20-6 in a game marked by a scoreless second half. Prediction Record: 8-5 in picking the winner and 5-7-1 against the spread.
Baylor is the underdog at home by 10 points against Oklahoma State. Our call: Baylor 31-30 Result: Oklahoma State won 34-7. Prediction Record: 8-6 in picking the winner and 5-8-1 against the spread.
Miami of Ohio is the underdog at home by 10 points against Northern Illinois. Our call: Northern Illinois 30-23 Result: Northern Illinois won 27-22. Prediction Record: 9-6 in picking the winner and 6-8-1 against the spread.
Eastern Michigan is the underdog at home by 3 points against Ball State. Our call: Eastern Michigan 27-26 Result: Ball State won 29-27. Prediction Record: 9-7 in picking the winner and 7-8-1 against the spread.
Duke is favored at home by 4.5 points over Maryland. Our call: Duke 31-23 Result: Duke beat Maryland 17-13. Prediction Record: 10-7 in picking the winner and 7-9-1 against the spread.
Ohio is favored at home by 10.5 points over Kent State. Our call: Ohio 31-14 Result: Kent State won 20-11. Prediction Record: 10-8 in picking the winner and 7-10-1 against the spread.
Western Michigan is favored at home by 4.5 points over Buffalo. Our call: Western Michigan 28-21 Result: Western Michigan won 34-31 in overtime. Prediction Record: 11-8 in picking the winner and 7-11-1 against the spread.
Utah State is favored at home by 1 point over Louisiana Tech. Our call: Utah State 30-23 Result: Utah State won 23-21. Prediction Record: 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-11-1 against the spread.
Rice is the underdog at home by 10 points against UCF (Central Florida). Our call: UCF 40-21 Result: UCF beat Rice 49-7. Prediction Record: 13-8 in picking the winner and 9-11-1 against the spread.
Syracuse is favored at home by 10 points over Akron. Our call: Syracuse 28-17 Result: Syracuse won 28-14. Prediction Record: 14-8 in picking the winner and 10-11-1 against the spread.
Alabama is favored at home by 16 points over Tennessee. Our call: Alabama 28-7 Result: Alabama blocked a last-second field goal by the Vols to win 12-10. Prediction Record: 15-8 in picking the winner and 10-12-1 against the spread.
Middle Tennessee is favored at home by 19.5 points over Western Kentucky. Our call: Middle Tennessee 42-14 Result: The Blue Raiders won 62-24. Prediction Record: 16-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.
Troy State is at home vs. North Texas (no line at the time of the prediction). Our call: Troy 34-21 Result: Troy won 50-26. Prediction Record: 17-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.
Cincinnati is favored at home by 18 points over Louisville. Our call: Cincinnati 49-7 Result: Cincinnati beat Louisville 41-10. Prediction Record: 18-8 in picking the winner and 12-12-1 against the spread.
Washington is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oregon. Our call: Oregon 40-13 Result: Oregon beat Washington 43-19. Prediction Record: 19-8 in picking the winner and 13-12-1 against the spread.
Navy is favored at home by 2.5 points over Wake Forest. Our call: Wake Forest and Navy rank 64th and 65th in our YPPSYS rankings (see previous posting). We call it for the Demon Deacons 27-24 Result: Navy won 13-10, throwing ZERO passes. Prediction Record: 19-9 in picking the winner and 13-13-1 against the spread.
Michigan is the underdog at home by 4 points against Penn State. Our call: Michigan 21-20 Result: The Nittany Lions beat the Wolverines 35-10. Prediction Record: 19-10 in picking the winner and 13-14-1 against the spread.
Kansas is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oklahoma. Our call: Oklahoma 24-21 Result: Oklahoma won 35-13. Prediction Record: 20-10 in picking the winner and 13-15-1 against the spread.
Miami of Florida is favored at home by 4.5 points over Clemson. Our call: Miami of Florida 24-14 Result: Clemson beat the Hurricanes 40-37 in overtime. Prediction Record: 20-11 in picking the winner and 13-16-1 against the spread.
Notre Dame is favored at home by 8 points over Boston College. Our call: Notre Dame 28-27 Result: The Fighting Irish won 20-16. Prediction Record: 21-11 in picking the winner and 14-16-1 against the spread.
Colorado State is favored at home by 8 points over San Diego State. Our call: Our stats rate these team even, except for the home field advantage. 31-27 for Colorado State. Result: San Diego State beat Colorado State 42-28 as new head coach Brady Hoke's team continues to improve. Prediction Record: 21-12 in picking the winner and 15-16-1 against the spread.
Utah is favored at home by 9.5 points over Air Force. Our call: Utah 24-7 Result: Utah beat the Falcons in overtime 23-16. Prediction Record: 22-12 in picking the winner and 15-17-1 against the spread.
Nevada is favored at home by 15.5 points over Idaho. Our call: Our YPSSYS rankings put Nevada and Idaho at the 53rd and 54th spots. Idaho has been having a banner year and we call it for the Vandals 36-34 Result: Nevada won 70-45. Prediction Record: 22-13 in picking the winner and 15-18-1 against the spread.
California is favored at home by 36 points over Washington State. Our call: Cal 52-7 Result: Cal won 49-17. Prediction Record: 23-13 in picking the winner and 15-19-1 against the spread.
Nebraska is favored at home by 18 points over Iowa State. Our call: Huskers 34-10 Result: Lose at home to the Cyclones? Poor Nebraska. Iowa State won 9-7 as Nebraska gave up 3 interceptions and 5 of 6 fumbles for a record-tying 8 turnovers, 4 of those within the Cyclone 5-yard line. If Nebraska were Podunk U, no one would care, but apparently some members of the Nebraska coaching staff would rather be looking at unemployment checks rather than producing the product that a lot of people are investing in to make it successful.
A record 8 turnovers by the offense could be pardoned in the Christian spirit, but not if the rest of the world - except for the Husker offensive coaching staff - had already been grumbling mightily in past weeks that something had to do be done at once to change the sputtering Cornhusker offense, e.g. giving other quarterbacks more opportunity to see if they could jumpstart the offense, etc. But to everyone's astounded amazement, the Husker coaching staff stuck with the same totally ineffectual quarterback again - the entire game - in spite of what appears to be a lack of leadership and an inability to get the ball into the end zone.
Indeed, we had already posted previously about the great number of errors that the Huskers were producing in the red zone in previous games and that it was the job of the coaching staff to correct them. Was anything done to correct this and stop the foolish playcalling in the red zone? Apparently nothing. Frankly, the Nebraska offensive coordinator should be given his walking papers. No team produces 8 offensive turnovers unless there are tremendous unresolved problems on the offensive team as a whole. Given the superb Nebraska defense which allowed only 9 points (inter alia, Suh blocked a field goal) it is obviously difficult to have a terrible offense at the same time, but such are the facts and coaches are paid A LOT OF MONEY to solve such problems. Frankly, one can easily imagine coaching the present Husker offense 200% better than it is currently being coached, and at half the price. I'm ready. See my postings about successful coaching. Prediction Record: 23-14 in picking the winner and 15-20-1 against the spread.
Louisiana-Lafayette is favored at home by 3 points over Florida Atlantic. Our call: ULL 34-27 Result:Florida Atlantic won 51-29. Prediction Record: 23-15 in picking the winner and 15-21-1 against the spread.
Arizona is favored at home by 8 points over UCLA. Our call: Arizona 31-14 Result: Arizona beat UCLA 27-13 Prediction Record: 24-15 in picking the winner and 16-21-1 against the spread.
Michigan State at home is seen as even against visiting Iowa. Our call: Our stats call this game all square after we give the points for the home field advantage to the Spartans. We call it for the Hawkeys 24-23 Result: Iowa won on the last play of the game 15-13 Prediction Record: 25-15 in picking the winner and 17-21-1 against the spread.
Arkansas State is favored at home by 11.5 points over Florida International. Our call: Arkansas State 31-10 Result: Arkansas State won 27-10. Prediction Record: 26-15 in picking the winner and 18-21-1 against the spread.
BYU is the underdog at home by 2.5 points against TCU. Our call: TCU 28-21 Result: TCU beat BYU 38-7 Prediction Record: 27-15 in picking the winner and 19-21-1 against the spread.
Kentucky is favored at home by 17 points over Louisiana-Monroe. Our call: ULM 24-23 Result: Kentucky won 36-13 Prediction Record: 27-16 in picking the winner and 19-22-1 against the spread.
Texas Tech is favored at home by 21 points over Texas A&M. Our call: Texas Tech 48-24 Result: Texas A&M beat Texas Tech 52-30 Prediction Record: 27-17 in picking the winner and 19-23-1 against the spread.
South Carolina is favored at home by 12.5 points over Vanderbilt. Our call: South Carolina 31-10 Result: South Carolina beat Vanderbilt 14-10 Prediction Record: 28-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.
Houston is favored at home by 16 points over SMU. Our call: Houston 41-27 Result: Houston beat SMU 38-15 Prediction Record: 29-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.
LSU is favored at home by 9 points over Auburn. Our call: LSU 27-24 Result: LSU beat Auburn 31-10 Prediction Record: 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-26-1 against the spread.
Mississippi State is the underdog at home by 23.5 points against Florida. Our call: Florida 41-7 Result:Florida beat Mississippi State 29-19 Prediction Record: 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-27-1 against the spread.
Missouri is the underdog at home by 13.5 points against Texas. Our call: Texas 31-17 Result: Texas won 41-7 Prediction Record: 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-27-1 against the spread.
Southern Mississippi is favored at home by 21 points over Tulane. Our call: Southern Miss 37-17 Result: Southern Miss won 43-6 Prediction Record: 33-17 in picking the winner and 20-28-1 against the spread.
Toledo is favored at home by 1.5 points over Temple. Our call: Toledo 27-17 Result: Temple won 40-24 Prediction Record: 33-18 in picking the winner and 20-29-1 against the spread.
New Mexico is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against UNLV. Our call: New Mexico 31-21 Result: UNLV won 34-17. Prediction Record: 33-19 in picking the winner and 20-30-1 against the spread.
New Mexico State is the underdog at home by 24 points against Fresno State. Our call: Fresno State 41-14 Result: Fresno State won 34-3. Prediction Record: 34-19 in picking the winner and 21-30-1 against the spread.
Stanford is favored at home by 6 points over Arizona State. Our call: Stanford 30-23 Result: Stanford won 33-14. Prediction Record: 35-19 in picking the winner and 22-30-1 against the spread.
USC is favored at home by 21 points over Oregon State. Our call: USC 38-7 Result: USC won 42-36 as the Beavers came back from a 42-23 deficit. Prediction Record: 36-19 in picking the winner and 22-31-1 against the spread.
Hawaii is the underdog at home by 24 points against Boise State. Our call: Boise State 38-21 Result: Boise State won 54-9 Prediction Record: 37-19 in picking the winner and 22-32-1 against the spread.
It was a disastrous week against the spread, as we had the worst week we have ever had, although the break even point is actually only swing of five games. Nevertheless, once you get behind, it is tough to get back.
For the season, after eight weeks, we are thus far 315-126 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 184-201-5 record against the spread.
Odds used here were posted according to the odds posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Tuesday, October 20, 2009 at 4:57:27 p.m.
Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.
However, we tweak our stats in some cases and this week we are treating the home field advantage differently, since a ca. 2.66-point home field advantage at Massey Ratings appears to make a bigger point difference in the actual spread. Massey has the average score this season for 2372 football games at 34.9 points for the winner and 15.79 points for the loser, so that the average number of points scored in a game by both teams is 50.7 points, with an average difference between the winner and loser of 19.1 points. When we look at all games, regardless of who won or lost, the home team score was 27.52 on average and the visiting team had 23.28 on average, so that the actual point spread there is 4.24 points.
We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.
Going into this week we are 278-107 W-L in picking the game winner, including some games that had no official line, and we are 162-169-4 against the spread.
Here are our predictions for the 8th Week, which has some great games on tap:
UTEP was the underdog at home by 7.5 points against Tulsa. Our call: Tulsa 38-17 Result: After going into the lead 24-13 in the 4th quarter, Tulsa went into a timid running offense, which went nowhere, led to 2 quick punts, and thus handed the game to UTEP, who won 28-24. Stupid coaching leads to losses. Losers play to protect a lead. Either you play to win or you may/will lose. Prediction Record: 0-1 in picking the winner and 0-1 against the spread.
North Carolina is favored at home by 3 points over Florida State. Our call: North Carolina 31-17 Result: Florida State won 30-27 as Christian Ponder of the Seminoles passed for 395 yards. Prediction Record: 0-2 in picking the winner and 0-2 against the spread.
Army is the underdog at home by 10 points against Rutgers. Our call: Rutgers 24-17 Result: Rutgers won 27-10. Prediction Record: 1-2 in picking the winner and 0-3 against the spread.
Bowling Green is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Central Michigan. Our call: Central Michigan 38-24 Result: Central Michigan won 24-10. Prediction Record: 2-2 in picking the winner and 1-3 against the spread.
Marshall is favored at home by 7 points over UAB. Our call: Marshall 31-21 Result: Marshall won 27-7. Prediction Record: 3-2 in picking the winner and 2-3 against the spread.
West Virginia is favored at home by 7 points over Connecticut. Our call: West Virginia 38-21 Result: West Virginia won 28-24 and deserved to lose this game as the Huskies put up 499 yards total offense to the Mountaineers 381. Prediction Record: 4-2 in picking the winner and 2-4 against the spread.
Pittsburgh is favored at home by 7 points over South Florida. Our call: Pittsburgh 27-26 Result: The Panters beat the Bulls 41-14. Prediction Record: 5-2 in picking the winner and 2-5 against the spread.
Northwestern is favored at home by 5.5 points over Indiana. Our call: Indiana 24-23 Result: Northwestern came back from a 28-3 deficit to win 29-28 after Indiana, ahead 28-19 went for a TD rather than a field goal with 4th and 1 at the goal line and did not make it. You have to play the percentages to win. Prediction Record: 5-3 in picking the winner and 3-5 against the spread.
Ohio State is favored at home by 18 points over Minnesota. Our call: Ohio State 41-21 Result: Ohio State won 38-7 after leading only 7-0 at halftime. Prediction Record: 6-3 in picking the winner and 4-5 against the spread.
Purdue is favored at home by 10 points over Illinois. Our call: Purdue 35-14 Result: Purdue beat Illinois 24-14. Prediction Record: 7-3 in picking the winner and 4-5-1 against the spread.
Virginia is the underdog at home by 4.5 points against Georgia Tech. Our call: Virginia 24-23 Result: Georgia Tech beat Virginia 34-9. Prediction Record: 7-4 in picking the winner and 4-6-1 against the spread.
Mississippi is favored at home by 5.5 points over Arkansas. Our call: The stats would call this game for Mississippi by about 7 points, but the Razorbacks have improved tremendously and should have beaten Florida last week. We call it 31-30 for Arkansas. Result: Mississippi beat Arkansas 30-17. Prediction Record: 7-5 in picking the winner and 4-7-1 against the spread.
Kansas State is favored at home by 4 points over Colorado. Our call: Kansas State 31-24 Result: Kansas State beat Colorado 20-6 in a game marked by a scoreless second half. Prediction Record: 8-5 in picking the winner and 5-7-1 against the spread.
Baylor is the underdog at home by 10 points against Oklahoma State. Our call: Baylor 31-30 Result: Oklahoma State won 34-7. Prediction Record: 8-6 in picking the winner and 5-8-1 against the spread.
Miami of Ohio is the underdog at home by 10 points against Northern Illinois. Our call: Northern Illinois 30-23 Result: Northern Illinois won 27-22. Prediction Record: 9-6 in picking the winner and 6-8-1 against the spread.
Eastern Michigan is the underdog at home by 3 points against Ball State. Our call: Eastern Michigan 27-26 Result: Ball State won 29-27. Prediction Record: 9-7 in picking the winner and 7-8-1 against the spread.
Duke is favored at home by 4.5 points over Maryland. Our call: Duke 31-23 Result: Duke beat Maryland 17-13. Prediction Record: 10-7 in picking the winner and 7-9-1 against the spread.
Ohio is favored at home by 10.5 points over Kent State. Our call: Ohio 31-14 Result: Kent State won 20-11. Prediction Record: 10-8 in picking the winner and 7-10-1 against the spread.
Western Michigan is favored at home by 4.5 points over Buffalo. Our call: Western Michigan 28-21 Result: Western Michigan won 34-31 in overtime. Prediction Record: 11-8 in picking the winner and 7-11-1 against the spread.
Utah State is favored at home by 1 point over Louisiana Tech. Our call: Utah State 30-23 Result: Utah State won 23-21. Prediction Record: 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-11-1 against the spread.
Rice is the underdog at home by 10 points against UCF (Central Florida). Our call: UCF 40-21 Result: UCF beat Rice 49-7. Prediction Record: 13-8 in picking the winner and 9-11-1 against the spread.
Syracuse is favored at home by 10 points over Akron. Our call: Syracuse 28-17 Result: Syracuse won 28-14. Prediction Record: 14-8 in picking the winner and 10-11-1 against the spread.
Alabama is favored at home by 16 points over Tennessee. Our call: Alabama 28-7 Result: Alabama blocked a last-second field goal by the Vols to win 12-10. Prediction Record: 15-8 in picking the winner and 10-12-1 against the spread.
Middle Tennessee is favored at home by 19.5 points over Western Kentucky. Our call: Middle Tennessee 42-14 Result: The Blue Raiders won 62-24. Prediction Record: 16-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.
Troy State is at home vs. North Texas (no line at the time of the prediction). Our call: Troy 34-21 Result: Troy won 50-26. Prediction Record: 17-8 in picking the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread.
Cincinnati is favored at home by 18 points over Louisville. Our call: Cincinnati 49-7 Result: Cincinnati beat Louisville 41-10. Prediction Record: 18-8 in picking the winner and 12-12-1 against the spread.
Washington is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oregon. Our call: Oregon 40-13 Result: Oregon beat Washington 43-19. Prediction Record: 19-8 in picking the winner and 13-12-1 against the spread.
Navy is favored at home by 2.5 points over Wake Forest. Our call: Wake Forest and Navy rank 64th and 65th in our YPPSYS rankings (see previous posting). We call it for the Demon Deacons 27-24 Result: Navy won 13-10, throwing ZERO passes. Prediction Record: 19-9 in picking the winner and 13-13-1 against the spread.
Michigan is the underdog at home by 4 points against Penn State. Our call: Michigan 21-20 Result: The Nittany Lions beat the Wolverines 35-10. Prediction Record: 19-10 in picking the winner and 13-14-1 against the spread.
Kansas is the underdog at home by 8.5 points against Oklahoma. Our call: Oklahoma 24-21 Result: Oklahoma won 35-13. Prediction Record: 20-10 in picking the winner and 13-15-1 against the spread.
Miami of Florida is favored at home by 4.5 points over Clemson. Our call: Miami of Florida 24-14 Result: Clemson beat the Hurricanes 40-37 in overtime. Prediction Record: 20-11 in picking the winner and 13-16-1 against the spread.
Notre Dame is favored at home by 8 points over Boston College. Our call: Notre Dame 28-27 Result: The Fighting Irish won 20-16. Prediction Record: 21-11 in picking the winner and 14-16-1 against the spread.
Colorado State is favored at home by 8 points over San Diego State. Our call: Our stats rate these team even, except for the home field advantage. 31-27 for Colorado State. Result: San Diego State beat Colorado State 42-28 as new head coach Brady Hoke's team continues to improve. Prediction Record: 21-12 in picking the winner and 15-16-1 against the spread.
Utah is favored at home by 9.5 points over Air Force. Our call: Utah 24-7 Result: Utah beat the Falcons in overtime 23-16. Prediction Record: 22-12 in picking the winner and 15-17-1 against the spread.
Nevada is favored at home by 15.5 points over Idaho. Our call: Our YPSSYS rankings put Nevada and Idaho at the 53rd and 54th spots. Idaho has been having a banner year and we call it for the Vandals 36-34 Result: Nevada won 70-45. Prediction Record: 22-13 in picking the winner and 15-18-1 against the spread.
California is favored at home by 36 points over Washington State. Our call: Cal 52-7 Result: Cal won 49-17. Prediction Record: 23-13 in picking the winner and 15-19-1 against the spread.
Nebraska is favored at home by 18 points over Iowa State. Our call: Huskers 34-10 Result: Lose at home to the Cyclones? Poor Nebraska. Iowa State won 9-7 as Nebraska gave up 3 interceptions and 5 of 6 fumbles for a record-tying 8 turnovers, 4 of those within the Cyclone 5-yard line. If Nebraska were Podunk U, no one would care, but apparently some members of the Nebraska coaching staff would rather be looking at unemployment checks rather than producing the product that a lot of people are investing in to make it successful.
A record 8 turnovers by the offense could be pardoned in the Christian spirit, but not if the rest of the world - except for the Husker offensive coaching staff - had already been grumbling mightily in past weeks that something had to do be done at once to change the sputtering Cornhusker offense, e.g. giving other quarterbacks more opportunity to see if they could jumpstart the offense, etc. But to everyone's astounded amazement, the Husker coaching staff stuck with the same totally ineffectual quarterback again - the entire game - in spite of what appears to be a lack of leadership and an inability to get the ball into the end zone.
Indeed, we had already posted previously about the great number of errors that the Huskers were producing in the red zone in previous games and that it was the job of the coaching staff to correct them. Was anything done to correct this and stop the foolish playcalling in the red zone? Apparently nothing. Frankly, the Nebraska offensive coordinator should be given his walking papers. No team produces 8 offensive turnovers unless there are tremendous unresolved problems on the offensive team as a whole. Given the superb Nebraska defense which allowed only 9 points (inter alia, Suh blocked a field goal) it is obviously difficult to have a terrible offense at the same time, but such are the facts and coaches are paid A LOT OF MONEY to solve such problems. Frankly, one can easily imagine coaching the present Husker offense 200% better than it is currently being coached, and at half the price. I'm ready. See my postings about successful coaching. Prediction Record: 23-14 in picking the winner and 15-20-1 against the spread.
Louisiana-Lafayette is favored at home by 3 points over Florida Atlantic. Our call: ULL 34-27 Result:Florida Atlantic won 51-29. Prediction Record: 23-15 in picking the winner and 15-21-1 against the spread.
Arizona is favored at home by 8 points over UCLA. Our call: Arizona 31-14 Result: Arizona beat UCLA 27-13 Prediction Record: 24-15 in picking the winner and 16-21-1 against the spread.
Michigan State at home is seen as even against visiting Iowa. Our call: Our stats call this game all square after we give the points for the home field advantage to the Spartans. We call it for the Hawkeys 24-23 Result: Iowa won on the last play of the game 15-13 Prediction Record: 25-15 in picking the winner and 17-21-1 against the spread.
Arkansas State is favored at home by 11.5 points over Florida International. Our call: Arkansas State 31-10 Result: Arkansas State won 27-10. Prediction Record: 26-15 in picking the winner and 18-21-1 against the spread.
BYU is the underdog at home by 2.5 points against TCU. Our call: TCU 28-21 Result: TCU beat BYU 38-7 Prediction Record: 27-15 in picking the winner and 19-21-1 against the spread.
Kentucky is favored at home by 17 points over Louisiana-Monroe. Our call: ULM 24-23 Result: Kentucky won 36-13 Prediction Record: 27-16 in picking the winner and 19-22-1 against the spread.
Texas Tech is favored at home by 21 points over Texas A&M. Our call: Texas Tech 48-24 Result: Texas A&M beat Texas Tech 52-30 Prediction Record: 27-17 in picking the winner and 19-23-1 against the spread.
South Carolina is favored at home by 12.5 points over Vanderbilt. Our call: South Carolina 31-10 Result: South Carolina beat Vanderbilt 14-10 Prediction Record: 28-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.
Houston is favored at home by 16 points over SMU. Our call: Houston 41-27 Result: Houston beat SMU 38-15 Prediction Record: 29-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.
LSU is favored at home by 9 points over Auburn. Our call: LSU 27-24 Result: LSU beat Auburn 31-10 Prediction Record: 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-26-1 against the spread.
Mississippi State is the underdog at home by 23.5 points against Florida. Our call: Florida 41-7 Result:Florida beat Mississippi State 29-19 Prediction Record: 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-27-1 against the spread.
Missouri is the underdog at home by 13.5 points against Texas. Our call: Texas 31-17 Result: Texas won 41-7 Prediction Record: 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-27-1 against the spread.
Southern Mississippi is favored at home by 21 points over Tulane. Our call: Southern Miss 37-17 Result: Southern Miss won 43-6 Prediction Record: 33-17 in picking the winner and 20-28-1 against the spread.
Toledo is favored at home by 1.5 points over Temple. Our call: Toledo 27-17 Result: Temple won 40-24 Prediction Record: 33-18 in picking the winner and 20-29-1 against the spread.
New Mexico is the underdog at home by 1.5 points against UNLV. Our call: New Mexico 31-21 Result: UNLV won 34-17. Prediction Record: 33-19 in picking the winner and 20-30-1 against the spread.
New Mexico State is the underdog at home by 24 points against Fresno State. Our call: Fresno State 41-14 Result: Fresno State won 34-3. Prediction Record: 34-19 in picking the winner and 21-30-1 against the spread.
Stanford is favored at home by 6 points over Arizona State. Our call: Stanford 30-23 Result: Stanford won 33-14. Prediction Record: 35-19 in picking the winner and 22-30-1 against the spread.
USC is favored at home by 21 points over Oregon State. Our call: USC 38-7 Result: USC won 42-36 as the Beavers came back from a 42-23 deficit. Prediction Record: 36-19 in picking the winner and 22-31-1 against the spread.
Hawaii is the underdog at home by 24 points against Boise State. Our call: Boise State 38-21 Result: Boise State won 54-9 Prediction Record: 37-19 in picking the winner and 22-32-1 against the spread.
It was a disastrous week against the spread, as we had the worst week we have ever had, although the break even point is actually only swing of five games. Nevertheless, once you get behind, it is tough to get back.
For the season, after eight weeks, we are thus far 315-126 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 184-201-5 record against the spread.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
YPPSYS Yards Per Play Ranking System Compared with BCS, AP Poll, USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive, Massey Ratings, Sagarin Pure Points
After the 7th week of play or what can approximately be called the middle of the 2009 NCAA FBS Division I-A college football season, we here compare our YPPSYS Yards Per Play Ranking System (as adjusted particularly for strength of schedule) with the rankings at the BCS, AP Poll (voters), USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive Poll, Massey Ratings, and Sagarin Pure Points. For more detail, also take a look at for example at the CFN Scout.com rankings or Mike DeSimone's College Football Ratings.
As one can see below, YPPSYS produces reliable and objective ranking and rating results, and it does this primarily by combining the yards per play stats (offense and defense) of any team together with its schedule difficulty.
YPPSYS RANKINGS compared to Other Ranking Services
As one can see below, YPPSYS produces reliable and objective ranking and rating results, and it does this primarily by combining the yards per play stats (offense and defense) of any team together with its schedule difficulty.
YPPSYS RANKINGS compared to Other Ranking Services
| YPPSYS Rank | After 7th Week | Massey Ratings | Sagarin Pure Points | AP Top 25 Poll | USA Today Coaches Poll | Harris | BCS | ||||||
| 1 | Florida | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| 2 | USC | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | ||||||
| 3 | Alabama | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| 4 | Cincinnati | 4 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||||||
| 5 | Texas | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||||||
| 6 | TCU | 6 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | ||||||
| 7 | Boise State | 5 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||||||
| 8 | Nebraska | 15 | 7 | ||||||||||
| 9 | Texas Tech | 13 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 22 | |||||||
| 10 | Oregon | 11 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | ||||||
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 9 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | ||||||
| 12 | Penn State | 18 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | ||||||
| 13 | Oklahoma | 16 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 25 | |||||||
| 14 | West Virginia | 29 | 41 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | ||||||
| 15 | Miami (Florida) | 12 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | ||||||
| 16 | South Florida | 20 | 35 | 24 | |||||||||
| 17 | Tennessee | 44 | 24 | ||||||||||
| 18 | Arizona | 26 | 22 | 22 | |||||||||
| 19 | Ohio State | 24 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 19 | ||||||
| 20 | Utah | 17 | 30 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 18 | ||||||
| 21 | Pittsburgh | 19 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | ||||||
| 22 | Iowa | 8 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | ||||||
| 23 | Auburn | 30 | 37 | ||||||||||
| 24 | Mississippi | 32 | 34 | 25 | |||||||||
| 25 | BYU | 23 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||||
| 26 | California | 25 | 28 | ||||||||||
| 27 | Arkansas | 21 | 21 | 4 | |||||||||
| 28 | South Carolina | 22 | 36 | 23 | 23 | 24 | |||||||
| 29 | Michigan State | 52 | 33 | ||||||||||
| 30 | Oklahoma State | 34 | 45 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | ||||||
| 31 | LSU | 14 | 26 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | ||||||
| 32 | Clemson | 38 | 19 | 18 | |||||||||
| 33 | Stanford | 43 | 27 | ||||||||||
| 34 | Tulsa | 51 | 58 | ||||||||||
| 35 | Kansas | 36 | 31 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 25 | ||||||
| 36 | Central Michigan | 37 | 40 | ||||||||||
| 37 | Missouri | 50 | 55 | ||||||||||
| 38 | Michigan | 41 | 32 | ||||||||||
| 39 | Arizona State | 49 | 47 | ||||||||||
| 40 | Boston College | 31 | 38 | ||||||||||
| 41 | Baylor | 75 | 72 | ||||||||||
| 42 | North Carolina | 59 | 63 | ||||||||||
| 43 | Georgia Tech | 10 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | ||||||
| 44 | Houston | 27 | 52 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | ||||||
| 45 | Notre Dame | 28 | 18 | ||||||||||
| 46 | Connecticut | 45 | 53 | ||||||||||
| 47 | Louisiana-Monroe | 74 | 79 | ||||||||||
| 48 | Georgia | 35 | 54 | ||||||||||
| 49 | Fresno State | 42 | 20 | ||||||||||
| 50 | Purdue | 78 | 59 | ||||||||||
| 51 | Wisconsin | 40 | 51 | ||||||||||
| 52 | Troy | 61 | 81 | ||||||||||
| 53 | Nevada | 79 | 84 | ||||||||||
| 54 | Idaho | 53 | 66 | ||||||||||
| 55 | Oregon State | 33 | 48 | ||||||||||
| 56 | UCLA | 55 | 49 | ||||||||||
| 57 | Toledo | 85 | 112 | ||||||||||
| 58 | North Carolina State | 84 | 86 | ||||||||||
| 59 | Ohio | 62 | 62 | ||||||||||
| 60 | Hawai'i | 120 | 107 | ||||||||||
| 61 | Southern Mississippi | 83 | 75 | ||||||||||
| 62 | Virginia | 57 | 42 | ||||||||||
| 63 | Colorado State | 73 | 77 | ||||||||||
| 64 | Wake Forest | 56 | 67 | ||||||||||
| 65 | Navy | 47 | 44 | ||||||||||
| 66 | San Diego State | 111 | 95 | ||||||||||
| 67 | Air Force | 66 | 46 | ||||||||||
| 68 | Kentucky | 39 | 43 | ||||||||||
| 69 | Minnesota | 54 | 65 | ||||||||||
| 70 | Rutgers | 58 | 80 | ||||||||||
| 71 | Mississippi State | 67 | 60 | ||||||||||
| 72 | SMU | 92 | 83 | ||||||||||
| 73 | Kansas State | 71 | 76 | ||||||||||
| 74 | Iowa State | 65 | 64 | ||||||||||
| 75 | Texas A&M | 89 | 94 | ||||||||||
| 76 | Utah State | 132 | 108 | ||||||||||
| 77 | Northern Illinois | 72 | 50 | ||||||||||
| 78 | North Texas | 145 | 133 | ||||||||||
| 79 | Buffalo | 110 | 111 | ||||||||||
| 80 | Temple | 82 | 93 | ||||||||||
| 81 | Florida State | 46 | 29 | ||||||||||
| 82 | Louisville | 91 | 99 | ||||||||||
| 83 | Indiana | 87 | 97 | ||||||||||
| 84 | Middle Tennessee | 94 | 117 | ||||||||||
| 85 | Duke | 68 | 73 | ||||||||||
| 86 | Vanderbilt | 119 | 119 | ||||||||||
| 87 | Louisiana Tech | 102 | 92 | ||||||||||
| 88 | Syracuse | 100 | 110 | ||||||||||
| 89 | Marshall | 77 | 91 | ||||||||||
| 90 | UCF | 104 | 109 | ||||||||||
| 91 | Arkansas State | 103 | 70 | ||||||||||
| 92 | Western Michigan | 95 | 104 | ||||||||||
| 93 | Northwestern | 88 | 98 | ||||||||||
| 94 | Washington | 48 | 39 | ||||||||||
| 95 | Maryland | 101 | 124 | ||||||||||
| 96 | East Carolina | 86 | 90 | ||||||||||
| 97 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 97 | 140 | ||||||||||
| 98 | Kent State | 115 | 114 | ||||||||||
| 99 | Wyoming | 93 | 126 | ||||||||||
| 100 | Army | 125 | 141 | ||||||||||
| 101 | Bowling Green | 81 | 87 | ||||||||||
| 102 | UAB | 114 | 130 | ||||||||||
| 103 | Tulane | 139 | 163 | ||||||||||
| 104 | Illinois | 126 | 127 | ||||||||||
| 105 | UTEP | 109 | 131 | ||||||||||
| 106 | Akron | 153 | 129 | ||||||||||
| 107 | Colorado | 80 | 69 | ||||||||||
| 108 | Florida Atlantic | 118 | 128 | ||||||||||
| 109 | New Mexico | 197 | 176 | ||||||||||
| 110 | Memphis | 140 | 149 | ||||||||||
| 111 | Miami (Ohio) | 161 | 156 | ||||||||||
| 112 | UNLV | 124 | 121 | ||||||||||
| 113 | San Jose State | 113 | 101 | ||||||||||
| 114 | Florida International | 130 | 106 | ||||||||||
| 115 | Ball State | 167 | 150 | ||||||||||
| 116 | New Mexico State | 152 | 178 | ||||||||||
| 117 | Eastern Michigan | 184 | 174 | ||||||||||
| 118 | Rice | 186 | 170 | ||||||||||
| 119 | Western Kentucky | 202 | 160 | ||||||||||
| 120 | Washington State | 138 | 122 |
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