Monday, September 22, 2014

College Football Rankings and Ratings After Week 4 FBS 2014 by SportPundit

College Football Rankings and Ratings After Week 4 FBS 2014 by SportPundit

The SportPundit 2014 College Football Rankings After Week 4 in NCAA FBS play are out and can be viewed below. The schedule difficulty stat is strongly tweaked. See also our preseason rankings at this link. These kinds of rankings and ratings have limited value early in the season because there are too many unknowns.

Please note: after the 3rd week of play we changed our formula so that 1 rating point = 10 scoreboard points and .1 rating point = 1 point. Previously, we had 1 rating point = 7 scoreboard points which proved to be too low in this day of wide open offenses, etc.

Our rankings are based the NAYPPA of each team (net average yards per play advantage) minus a calculation based on schedule difficulty up to this week in the season (currently we are subtracting ca. 3 x the schedule difficulty divided by 100 -- but not always) and minus .2 for each loss (but not always). The NAYPPA ratings are skewed by weaker, FCS opponents. The schedule difficulty is based on our own rankings, on Massey Ratings and Sagarin at USA Today, both of whom rate the FCS teams. We take the cumulative yards per play stat data from cfbstats.com and from the college and university football athletic pages online, as linked for each team, if possible. Many schools have cumulative season statistics, but some have none, or are difficult to access.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind.  No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.


College Football Rankings and Ratings by SportPundit After Week 4 FBS 2014 Season


Please note this early in the season and given the many games that have taken place between FBS and FCS teams that the calculations, ratings and rankings have many SUBJECTIVE adjustments! This list is thus principally for our own use as a rough guide for our predictions. 
After
WEEK

4
Team
Rank
2014
by 
Sport
Pundit


TEAM
Name
(head
coaching
change
marked
by

## link)


2014
NAYPPA
net
average
yards per play
advantage
offense
over
defense
stats from
cfbstats.com

(our
calculation) 


yards
per
play
offense
cfbstats
.com

yards
per
play
defense
cfbstats
.com



Schedule
difficulty

 (our
algorithm
based
on
various
sources
* =
strongly
adjusted
calcul.)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2014
including
bowl
games

YPPSYS
2014

Team
Rating by
Sport

Pundit

Alabama
3.0

7.53
4.51

70*
4-0
+0.9
2 Auburn 2.1

6.61
4.50

50*
3-0
+0.6
3 Oklahoma2.4

6.92
4.56

60*
4-0
+0.6
4 Oregon 2.4

8.14
5.72

60*
4-0
+0.6

5 Texas A&M 3.5

8.06
4.60

100*

4-0

+0.5

Florida State
1.2

6.31
5.13

35*
3-0
+0.2
7 Nebraska 3.1

7.75
4.66

100*
4-0
+0.1
8 Notre Dame 1.3

6.06
4.75

40**
3-0
+0.1
9 Baylor
4.4


7.76
3.40


145*

3-0

+0.1

10 Mississippi 2.4

6.81
4.37

80*
3-0
+0.0
11Stanford 3.1

6.78
3.63

100*
2-1
-0.1
12 TCU 2.8

5.81
3.04

105*
2-0
-0.3
13 Mississippi St.
1.7


6.98
5.25


65*

4-0

-0.3

14 LSU 1.3

6.08
4.79

50*
3-1
-0.4
15 Wisconsin
2.9


7.32
4.41


105

2-1

-0.4

16 Kansas State 0.9

5.58
4.72

40*
2-1
-0.5
17 Utah 2.2

6.28
4.11

90*
3-0
-0.5
18 South Carolina
-0.5


6.37
6.83

***
3-1
-0.6
19 Georgia 3.0

7.52
4.56

***
2-1
-0.6
20 East Carolina 2.7

7.50
4.81

***
2-1
-0.6
21 Oklahoma St. 0.8

6.03
5.28

45*
2-1
-0.7
22 Michigan State 1.6

6.51
4.94

70*
2-1
-0.7
23 USC ## 0.7

6.05
5.33

40*
2-1
-0.7
24 Clemson 1.5

5.92
4.41

60*
1-2
-0.7
25 Ohio State 2.3

6.52
4.18

95*
2-1
-0.7
26 West Virginia 0.4

6.23
5.86

25*
2-2
-0.7
27 BYU 1.0

5.67
4.65

60*
4-0
-0.8
28 Michigan 1.9

6.13
4.21

75*
2-2
-0.8
29Florida0.4

5.90
5.55

35*
2-1
-0.8
30 Arizona State
2.2


7.59
5.41


100*
3-0
-0.8
31 Penn State ## 1.5

5.97
4.42

80*
4-0
-0.9
32 Arkansas 1.9

7.40
5.51

85*
3-1
-0.9
33 Georgia Tech 0.4

6.76
6.37

50***
4-0
-1.1
34 UCLA 0.4

5.61
5.14

50*
3-0
-1.1
35 Missouri 0.9

6.10
5.23

60*
3-1
-1.1
36 Miami (Florida) 2.0

6.46
4.46

90*
2-2
-1.1
37 Arizona 1.2

6.99
5.84

80*
4-0

-1.2
38 California 1.7

6.75
5.07

90*
2-1
-1.2
39 Pittsburgh 2.1

6.21
4.10

105*
3-1
-1.2
40 Boston College 1.4

6.12
4.87

80*
3-1
-1.2
41 Texas ## 0.3

4.57
4.22

40*
1-2
-1.3
42 Marshall 3.4

7.85
4.42

155*
4-0
-1.3
43 Tennessee -0.4

4.65
5.04

30***
2-1
-1.5
44 Louisville ## 1.1

5.19
4.12

80*
3-1
-1.5
45 Maryland 0.4

5.81
5.39

60*
3-1
-1.6
46 Syracuse 1.2

6.05
4.83

85*
2-1
-1.6
47 Boise State ## 1.0


6.04
5.06

80*
3-1
-1.6
48 Virginia Tech -0.3

5.23
5.50

30*
2-2
-1.6
49 Kentucky 1.9

6.79
4.91

110*
2-1
-1.6
50 Oregon State 1.9

6.04
4.16

120*
3-0
-1.7
51 Texas Tech 1.8

6.94
5.13

110*
2-1
-1.7
52 Memphis 1.0

6.00
4.96

85*
1-1
-1.7
53 Cincinnati 0.6

6.77
6.10

80**
2-0
-1.8
54 UTSA -1.1

3.90
5.00

10***
1-2
-1.8
55  Rutgers 0.1

6.19
6.13

60*
3-1
-1.9
56 Virginia -0.2

4.76
4.96

45*
2-2
-1.9
57 Duke 1.9

6.35
4.47

130*
4-0
-2.0
58 Navy 0.8

6.66
5.86

80*
2-2
-2.0
59 Washington St. 1.3

6.96
5.65

90*
1-3
-2.0
60 UAB - ##
1.6


6.47 
4.89


115**

2-1

-2.0

61 Washington ## 0.3

5.52
5.21

80*
4-0
-2.1
62 Minnesota 0.5

5.33
4.87

80*
3-1
-2.1
63 N.C. State 1.2

6.76
5.56

115*
4-0
-2.2
64 Georgia Southern 3.2

8.49
5.29

***
2-2
-2.2
65 Toledo 0.5

6.89
6.41

75*
2-2
-2.2
66 Louisiana Tech 1.0

5.82
4.87

95*
2-2
-2.2
67 Illinois 1.3

6.41
5.12

115*
3-1
-2.3
68 North. Illinois 0.3

5.63
5.34

80*
3-1
-2.3
69 Houston 1.1

5.40
4.27

100*
2-2
-2.3
70 North Carolina -1.4

5.34
6.71

***
2-1
-2.4
71 Iowa State -1.2

4.78
5.96

30*
1-2
-2.5
72 Iowa
-0.2


5.11
5.31

70*
3-1
-2.5
73 Wyoming ## 0.1

5.25
5.20

80*
3-1
-2.5
74 UCF -0.3

4.94
5.27

60*
1-2
-2.5
75 Indiana 2.7

6.62
4.92

***
2-1
-2.6
76 Nevada -1.3

5.16
6.47

35***
2-1
-2.6
77 Northwestern -0.3

4.54
4.80

65*
1-2
-2.7
78 San Diego St. 0.4

5.94
5.53

90*
1-2
-2.7
79 Mid. Tennessee 0.4

6.00
5.64

90*
2-2
-2.7
80 W. Kentucky ## 0.4

6.62
6.23

90*
1-2
-2.7
81  Florida Atl. ##  -1.9

4.91
6.89

***
1-3
-2.7
82 Akron -0.1

5.20
5.28

75*
1-2
-2.7
83 Arkansas St. ## -0.5

4.72
5.18

70*
2-2
-2.8
84 Colorado State 0.9

7.12
6.24

120*
2-1
-2.9
85 Utah State
0.7


4.97
4.29


110*

2-2

-3.0

86 Colorado 0.0

5.39
5.42

90*
2-2
-3.1
87 Temple 0.1

4.86
4.75

100*
2-1
-3.1

88 Louis.-Monroe 
0.1


4.55
4.45


100*

2-1

-3.1
89 Texas State 0.2

6.33
6.15

95*
1-2
-3.1
90 Vanderbilt ## -0.5

4.91
5.44

70*
1-3
-3.2
91 North Texas 0.4

4.87
4.50

110*
2-2
-3.3
92 Old Dominion 0.9

6.36
5.51

135*
3-1
-3.3
93 Rice -2.8

5.61
8.47

***
0-3
-3.3
94 Ohio -0.1

5.84
5.89

100*

2-2

-3.5

95 Hawaii -0.8

4.11
4.98

70*
1-3
-3.5
96 San Jose St. -1.2

4.71
5.92

65*
1-2
-3.5

97 Army ## -0.8

5.55
6.38

80*
1-2
-3.6
98 Fl. Int'l FIU  -0.6

3.97
4.60

80*
1-3
-3.6
99 South Florida -0.6

4.65
5.26

85*
2-2
-3.6
100 UConn ## -1.2

4.00
5.17

60**
1-3
-3.6
101  Kansas -1.0

5.15
6.18

***
2-1
-3.6
102  Cent. Michigan  -0.4

4.63
4.98

90*
2-2
-3.7
103 Louis.-Lafayette -1.2

5.23
6.43

65*
1-3
-3.7
104 South Alabama -1.8

4.24
6.06

50*
1-2
-3.7
105 UMass ## -0.8

4.80
5.58

70*
0-4
-3.7
106 Fresno State -1.7

5.17
6.85

50*
1-3
-3.8
107 Purdue -0.6

4.74
5.34

95*
2-2
-3.9
108 Tulsa -2.7

5.09
7.76

***
1-2
-3.9
109 Air Force 0.1

6.07
5.99

130*
2-1
-4.0
110 Miami (Ohio) ## -1.1

4.74
5.84

70*
0-4
-4.0
111 Wake Forest ## -0.5

4.00
4.47

110*
2-2
-4.2
112 Tulane -0.3

5.35
5.62

110*
1-3
-4.2
113 SMU -3.7

2.98
6.71

***
0-3
-4.4
114 Bowling Gr. ## -1.3

5.78
7.20

90*
2-2
-4.4
115 Ball State -0.8

4.77
5.52

100*
1-3
-4.4
116   West. Michigan 1.8

7.19
5.38

***
2-1
-4.4
117 UTEP -1.8

5.98
7.73

85**
2-1
-4.4
118 New Mexico -0.1

6.84
6.93

130**
1-2
-4.4
119 Troy -2.0

4.78
6.76

60*
0-4
-4.6
120 UNLV -1.6

5.20
6.80

80*
1-3
-4.6
121 Buffalo -0.4

6.01
6.45

125*
2-2
-4.6
122 New Mexico St. -0.8

5.50
6.28

115*

2-2

-4.6
123 Georgia State 0.3

6.15
5.85

145*
1-3
-4.6
124 Southern Miss -1.7

4.85
6.55

85*
2-2
-4.6
125 Appalachian St. -0.3

5.49
5.82

130*
1-2
-4.6
126 Kent State -2.4

3.71
6.14


70*
0-3
-4.8
127 Idaho -2.1

5.30
7.36

***
0-3
-5.0
128 E. Michigan ##  -3.3

3.32
6.63

***
1-3
-5.0

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