Tuesday, September 01, 2015

College Football Predictions Week 1 2015 Division I FBS by SportPundit

College Football Predictions
Week 1 2015 Division I FBS by SportPundit

For the full last season including bowl games we finished 619-239 in calling the winner (72%), 370-362 against the spread, excluding ties (50.55%), and 383-363 against the CFPT prediction average (51.34%).

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind.  No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting.  Never rely on our posted odds here for betting. Go to the sources and always check and cross-check. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning -- for which we make no warranty of accuracy.

The game odds ("point spread", "spread") etc. used here were taken -- as far as possible -- from the opening lines posted at CFPT (The College Football Prediction Tracker) on Monday, August 31, 2015  9:45:45 a.m. and from Oddsshark. The "CFPT prediction average" was taken from CFPT. Please note that posted odds can differ among the various sources and that these can change over time, but our predictions, once made, do not reflect later changes. Sometimes odds are posted later in the week and we then add those to our postings when we become aware of them.

(please note that we are using the opening lines!)

Thursday, September 3

North Carolina at South Carolina
The Gamecocks are favored over the Tar Heels by 1 point.
The CFPT prediction average is -5.52, i.e. 5.52 points in favor of the visiting Gamecocks. When the visitor is favored, points are normally listed as a negative number. We shall merely give the points and the respective favored team.
The over/under (total expected points) is 64.
Our call: 37-28 for South Carolina

Florida International (FIU) at Central Florida (UCF)
The Knights are favored over the Golden Panthers by 16.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average is 17.55 points in favor of UCF.
The over/under is 46.5 points.
Our call:  30-14 for UCF

Oklahoma State at Central Michigan
The Cowboys are favored over the Chippewas by 19 points.
The CFPT prediction average is 13.83 points in favor of Oklahoma State.
The over/under is 56 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Oklahoma State

Elon at Wake Forest
Our call: 31-7 for Wake Forest

VMI at Ball State
Our call: 41-14 for Ball State

Stony Brook at Toledo
Our call: 38-17 for Toledo.

Alcorn State at Georgia Tech
Our call: 55-7 for Georgia Tech

Villanova at Connecticut
Our call: 17-16 for UConn

Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Commodores are favored over the Hilltoppers by 2.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average is -2.19 points in favor of Western Kentucky.
The over/under is 65 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Western Kentucky

Michigan at Utah
The Utes are favored over the Wolverines by 4.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average is 8.13 points in favor of Utah. 
The over/under is 46.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Michigan

TCU (Texas Christian U) at Minnesota
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Golden Gophers by 14 points
The CFPT prediction average is 14.07 points in favor of TCU.
The over/under is 57.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for TCU

Ohio at Idaho
The Bobcats are favored over the Vandals  by 10 points
The CFPT prediction average is 8.08 points in favor of Ohio. 
The over/under is 56.5 points.
Our call: 34-23 for Ohio

Southern Utah at Utah State
Our call: 35-7 for Utah State

Duke at Tulane
The Blue Devils are favored over the Green Wave by 11 points
The CFPT prediction average is 11.83 points in favor of Duke. 
The over/under is 47.5 points.
Our call: 31-23 for Duke

Texas San Antonio (UTSA) at Arizona
The Wildcats are favored over the Roadrunners by 32 points
The CFPT prediction average is 29.04 points in favor of Arizona. 
The over/under is 54 points.
Our call: 37-10 for Arizona

UC Davis at Nevada
Our call: 41-17 for Nevada

New Hampshire at San Jose State
Our call: 31-24 for San Jose State

Abilene Christian at Fresno State
Our call: 48-21 for Fresno State

Colorado at Hawaii
The Buffaloes are favored over the Warriors by 8 points
The CFPT prediction average is 4.53 points in favor of Colorado. 
The over/under is 57 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Hawaii

Friday, September 4

Charlotte at Georgia State
The Panthers are favored over the 49ers by 4 points
The CFPT prediction average is 3.63 points in favor of Georgia State. 
The over/under is 73.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Georgia State

Michigan State at Western Michigan
The Spartans are favored over the Broncos by 18.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 19.57 points in favor of Michigan State. 
The over/under is 58.5 points.
Our call: 45-16 for Michigan State

Fordham at Army
Our call: 31-24 for Army

Baylor at SMU
The Bears are favored over the Mustangs by 34 points
The CFPT prediction average is 34.61 points in favor of Baylor. 
The over/under is 74 points.
Our call: 59-17 for Baylor

Rhode Island at Syracuse
Our call: 41-14 for Syracuse

Weber State at Oregon State
Our call: 41-17 for Oregon State

Kent State at Illinois
The Illini are favored over the Golden Flashes by 15.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 15.72 points in favor of Illinois. 
The over/under is 52 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Illinois

Washington at Boise State
The Broncos are favored over the Huskies by 10.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 8.26 points in favor of Illinois. 
The over/under is 57 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Boise State

Saturday, September 5

Stanford at Northwestern
The Cardinal are favored over the Wildcats by 12 points
The CFPT prediction average is 11.76 points in favor of Stanford. 
The over/under is 46.5 points.
Our call: 37-3 for Stanford

Louisiana Monroe at Georgia
The Bulldogs are favored over the Warhawks by 35 points
The CFPT prediction average is 34.04 points in favor of Georgia. 
The over/under is 53.5 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Georgia

Tennessee-Martin at Ole Miss
Our call: 45-7 for Ole Miss

Colgate at Navy
Our call: 49-17 for Navy

Norfolk State at Rutgers
Our call: 45-17 for Rutgers

South Dakota State at Kansas
Our call: 31-24 for Kansas

Illinois State at Iowa
Our call: 31-17 for Iowa

Richmond at Maryland
Our call: 37-17 for Maryland

Wofford at Clemson
Our call: 37-3 for Clemson

Youngstown State at Pittsburgh
Our call: 24-14 for Pittsburgh

Maine at Boston College
Our call: 38-14 for Boston College

Portland State at Washington State
Our call: 48-17 for Washington State

Virginia at UCLA
The Bruins are favored over the Cavaliers by 17 points
The CFPT prediction average is 17.01 points in favor of UCLA. 
The over/under is 53.5 points.
Our call: 37-17 for UCLA

Texas El Paso (UTEP) at Arkansas
The Razorbacks are favored over the Miners  by 33 points
The CFPT prediction average is 29.01 points in favor of Arkansas. 
The over/under is 50.5 points.
Our call: 45-10 for Arkansas

Louisville at Auburn
The Tigers are favored over the Cardinals by 10.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 6.15 points in favor of Auburn. 
The over/under is 57 points.
Our call: 41-14 for Auburn

BYU at Nebraska
The Huskers are favored over the by 6 points
The CFPT prediction average is 8.76 points in favor of Nebraska. 
The over/under is 64.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Nebraska

Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan
The Monarchs are favored over the Eagles by 7 points
The CFPT prediction average is 10.89 points in favor of Old Dominion. 
The over/under is 65 points.
Our call: 40-28 for Old Dominion

Sam Houston State at Texas Tech
Our call: 41-31 for Texas Tech

Penn State at Temple
The Nittany Lions are favored over the Owls by 6 points
The CFPT prediction average is 4.18 points in favor of Penn State. 
The over/under is 39 points.
Our call: 28-10 for Penn State

Wagner at Rice
Our call: 44-14 for Rice

Florida Atlantic at Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane are favored over the Owls by 6 points
The CFPT prediction average is 1.29 points in favor of Tulsa. 
The over/under is 64.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Florida Atlantic

Morgan State at Air Force
Our call: 49-7 for Air Force

Albany at Buffalo
Our call: 47-17 for Buffalo

Presbyterian College at Miami of Ohio
Our call: 38-14 for Miami of Ohio

Howard at Appalachian State
Our call: 47-16 for Appalachian State

Savannah State at Colorado State
Our call: 56-7 for Colorado State

North Dakota at Wyoming
Our call: 45-21 for Wyoming

Southern Illinois at Indiana
Our call: 35-24 for Indiana

Southeast Missouri State at Missouri
Our call: 41-3 for Missouri

Bowling Green at Tennessee
The Volunteers are favored over the Falcons by 21 points
The CFPT prediction average is 19.79 points in favor of Tennessee. 
The over/under is 62 points. 
Our call: 45-10 for Tennessee

Grambling State at California
Our call: 49-10 for California

Bethune-Cookman at Miami of Florida
Our call: 49-10 for Miami of Florida

Troy at NC State
The Wolfpack are favored over the Trojans by 25 points
The CFPT prediction average is 25.07 points in favor of N.C. State. 
The over/under is 59 points.Our call: 41-17 for North Carolina State

Towson at East Carolina
Our call: 45-17 for East Carolina

Gardner-Webb at South Alabama
Our call: 41-14 for South Alabama

Mississippi Valley State at New Mexico
Our call: 45-23 for New Mexico

Akron at Oklahoma
The Sooners are favored over the Zips by 30.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 28.18 points in favor of Oklahoma. 
The over/under is 56 points.Our call: 44-10 for Oklahoma

Missouri State at Memphis
Our call: 31-14 for Memphis

Florida A&M at South Florida
Our call: 41-10 for South Florida

Alabama A&M at Cincinnati
Our call: 51-10 for Cincinnati

Southern U at Louisiana Tech
Our call: 45-7 for Louisiana Tech

Jackson State at Middle Tennessee
Our call: 49-17 for Middle Tennessee

Arizona State at Texas A&M
The Aggies are favored over the Sun Devils by 3 points
The CFPT prediction average is 0.61 points in favor of Arizona State. 
The over/under is 66 points.Our call: 35-31 for Texas A&M

Louisiana Lafayette at Kentucky
The Wildcats are favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 13.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 8.95 points in favor of Kentucky. 
The over/under is 59 points.Our call: 38-27 for Kentucky

South Dakota at Kansas State
Our call: 45-7 for Kansas State

McNeese State at LSU
Our call: 45-7 for LSU

Texas at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are favored over the Longhorns by 8.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 6.26 points in favor of Notre Dame. 
The over/under is 53.5 points.Our call: 28-17 for Notre Dame

Georgia Southern at West Virginia
The Mountaineers are favored over the Eagles by 19 points
The CFPT prediction average is 15.37 points in favor of West Virginia. 
The over/under is 59.5 points.Our call: 42-28 for West Virginia

New Mexico State at Florida
The Gators are favored over the Aggies by 36 points
The CFPT prediction average is 34.09 points in favor of Florida. 
The over/under is 57.5 points.Our call: 38-0 for Florida

UNLV at Northern Illinois
The Huskies are favored over the Rebels by 20.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 19.82 points in favor of Northern Illinois. 
The over/under is 62 points.Our call: 41-24 for Northern Illinois

San Diego at San Diego State

Our call: 45-7 for San Diego State

Eastern Washington at Oregon
Our call: 52-14 for Oregon

Wisconsin at Alabama
The Crimson Tide are favored over the Badgers by 9.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 8.81 points in favor of Alabama. 
The over/under is 50.5 points.Our call: 38-21 for Alabama

Texas State at Florida State
The Seminoles are favored over the  by 29.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 27.83 points in favor of Florida State. 
The over/under is 59.5 points.Our call: 47-14 for Florida State

Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Our call: 31-24 for Iowa State

Tennessee Tech at Houston
Our call: 45-14 for Houston

Mississippi State at Southern Mississippi
The Bulldogs are favored over the Golden Eagles by 23 points
The CFPT prediction average is 26.73 points in favor of Mississippi State. 
The over/under is 56.5 points.Our call: 45-14 for Mississippi State

Arkansas State at USC
The Trojans are favored over the Red Wolves by 28 points
The CFPT prediction average is 23.84 points in favor of Southern Cal. 
The over/under is 66.5 points.Our call: 40-17 for USC

Sunday, September 6

Purdue at Marshall
The Thundering Herd are favored over the Boilermakers by 8.5 points
The CFPT prediction average is 15.85 points in favor of Marshall. 
The over/under is 63.5 points.Our call: 38-17 for Marshall

Monday, September 7

Ohio State at Virginia Tech
The Buckeyes are favored over the Hokies by 14 points
The CFPT prediction average is 14.62 points in favor of Ohio State. 
The over/under is 53.5 points.Our call: 49-14 for Ohio State

Monday, August 31, 2015

The Football Outsiders College Football Stat S&P+ Looks Like a Good One to Us

Football Oustiders has a statistic called S&P+ that we examined in detail only after making our own independent preseason ratings and rankings for the college football Division I FBS teams for the 2015-2016 season.

Their S&P+ rating has the following top 8 teams in the following order: Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and TCU.

Applied to the 2015-2016 national championship playoffs, we could extract from that the prediction that the teams to make the playoffs would be the SEC champion plus Ohio State, Oregon and TCU, and exactly that is reflected in our own rankings and ratings, so we see the S&P+ stat as a good one.

Addendum to Preseason College Football Rankings and Ratings FBS 2015-2016 by SportPundit

This page completes our ranking and rating commentary on the Division I FBS college football teams for the 2015-2016 season, here going from Team 81 to team 128 viz. team 129. Blogger has a limit on the amount of text code possible in a single posting and since we have so many links, starting at position 81 we were unable to save the page, so we assume we had hit the limit.

Addendum to Preseason College Football Rankings and Ratings for Div. I FBS 2015-2016 by SportPundit (includes Commentary for teams 81 to 128 viz. 129)
Pre-
Season

Team
RANK
2015
-2016
by 
Sport
Pundit

TEAM
Name
(2015
head
coaching
change
marked
by # link

2014 by
## link)


Past Season
 2014-2015
NAYPPA
net
average
yards per play
advantage
offense
over
defense
stats from
cfbstats.com

(our
calculation) 


2014
yards
per
play
offense
cfbstats
.com

2014
yards
per
play
defense
cfbstats
.com



Schedule
difficulty
rank

2014

based
on
Massey
Ratings,
(up to
10th
treated
as 10)

*=

adjusted)

Won-loss
record (W-L)
for the
2014
-2015
season

Pre-
season

2015
-2016

Team
RATING
by
Sport

Pundit

81
last
season
79
Appalachian State
(Mountaineers won their last six games in 2014. QB switch to Taylor Lamb a key.)
1.0

6.31
5.31

126
7-5
-2.4
82
last
season
80
Louis.-Lafayette
(Hudspeth's teams are 9-4 each of the last 4 years) 
0.0

5.91
5.88

104
9-4
-2.4
83
last
season
81
Arkansas St. ##
(defense was the main problem in 2014 as Blake Anderson tries to follow footsteps of top coaches)
0.5

5.96
5.51

110
7-6
-2.4
84
last
season
82
Nevada
(SportsRatings has the Wolf Pack 88th)
-0.5

5.35
5.86

78
7-6
-2.4
85
last
season
83
Air Force
(it's the uniforms!)
-0.3

5.43
5.73

108
10-3
-2.5
86
last
season
84
Temple
 (top defense needs a decent offense for balance)
0.0

4.79
4.75

93
6-6
-2.5

87
last
season
85
Mid. Tennessee
(USA Today's Myerberg has the Blue Raiders at 70th)
0.1

5.93
5.85

97
6-6
-2.6
88
last
season
87
Old Dominion
(offense is the name of the game in a rebuilding year under Coach Wilder)
0.3

6.44
6.15

98*
6-6
-2.6
89
last
season
88
Cent. Michigan #
(HC Dan Enos to Arkansas as OC. New HC John Bonamego has only 10 returning starters.)
0.4

5.84
5.44

106
7-6
-2.6
90
last
season
89
Purdue
(clearly improving under Darrell Hazell, now year 3) 
-0.6

4.95
5.58

59
3-9
-2.6
91
last
season
90
Iowa State
(Sam B. Richardson is an experienced QB but team depth remains an issue.) 
-1.6

4.90
6.53

25
2-10
-2.6
92
last
season
91
Vanderbilt
(Post-Franklin era turning out to be difficult. Can Vandy recover?)
-1.0

4.68
5.72

54
3-9
-2.6
93
last
season
92
Colorado
(New DC Jim Leavitt to cure last year's awful defense? He may just have the credentials to do it.)
-1.3

5.29
6.55

38
2-10
-2.6
94
last
season
93
New Mexico
(Lobos' schedule may permit won-loss improvement. The offense is fine, but the defense is the problem.)
-0.3

6.52
6.82

86
4-8
-2.7
95
last
season
94
Texas State
(Up-tempo offense helped last season and new DC brought promise of improvment.)
0.3

6.06
5.71

127
7-5
-2.7
96
last
season
95
San Jose St.
(Carragher's crucial 3rd year looks difficult)
-0.3

5.25
5.52

90*
3-9
-2.8

97
last
season
97
Tulane
(Curtis Johnson in 4th year faces difficult prospects with young team.)
-0.8

4.83
5.65

68
3-9
-2.8
98
last
season
98
Kansas #
(Top recruiter new HC David Beaty hopes to revive the Jayhawks' fortunes.)
-1.7

4.62
6.29

48
3-9
-2.8
99
last
season
99
South Alabama 
(Jaguars signed 7 UAB Blazers to strengthen program.)
-0.5

5.12
5.60

105
6-6
-2.8
100
last
season
100
Hawaii
(Norm Chow has strengthened the Warriors with former Pac 12 players, like Max Wittek from USC)
-0.9

4.77
5.67

75
4-9
-2.9
101
last
season
101
UTEP
(Sean Kugler in second year seeks to move Miners forward, but defense must be improved)
-1.0

5.30
6.30

91
7-6
-2.9
102
last
season
102
Fresno State
(DeRuyter shift to running game has not worked well and defense is weak)
-1.1

5.19
6.27

73
6-8
-2.9
103
last
season
103
UTSA 
(Texas-San Antonio)
(38 seniors had to be replaced, inter alila, 8 JUCOS were signed. Wait and see.)
-0.7

4.48
5.23

82*
4-8
-2.9
104
last
season
105
South Florida
(Taggart's team with talented recruits has the potential to win.)
-0.8

4.94
5.69

88
4-8
-3.0
105
last
season
106
Ohio
(Ouelette is a former walk-on with talent, so Ohio will get their share of rushing yards.)
-0.3

5.26
5.58

118

6-6

-3.0

106
last
season
107
UMass ##
(Whipple has improved team and has good NAYPPA stats, so more wins are inevitable)
0.2

5.75
5.75

116
3-9
-3.0
107
last
season
108
Louis.-Monroe 
(Garrett Smith at QB? to prop up last year's meek offense)
-0.6


4.70
5.31


94

4-8

-3.0
108
last
season
109
Bowling Green ##
(Dino Babers hopes to improve on successful first season as HC)
-0.5

5.50
5.98

114
8-6
-3.1
109
last
season
110
 
Florida Atlantic ## 
(Owls dropped a successful Wright and took a Partridge risk and enter 2015 with a 5-game losing streak)
-0.8

5.39
6.23

83
3-9
-3.1
110
last
season
111
Southern Miss
(Once you drop to the bottom, the return upward is slow and agonizing.)
-1.3

5.10
6.41

74
3-9
-3.1
111
last
season
112
Akron
(Terry Bowden in year 4 with the Zips. New eligible transfers. A winning season is possible.)
-0.2

5.03
5.18

125
5-7
-3.1
112
last
season
113
Wake Forest ##
(Just look at the subpar yards per play average on offense last year. Where did the wins came from?)
-1.8

3.38
5.22

64
3-9
-3.1
113
last
season
114
Ball State
(17 starters return)
-0.7

5.17
5.87

120
5-7
-3.1
114
last
season
115
UConn ##
(Rebuilding continues)
-0.7

4.50
5.22

101
2-10
-3.2
115
last
season
116
Fl. Int'l FIU 
(Defense saved 2014 season from disaster.)
-1.0

4.33
5.38

102
4-8
-3.2
116
last
season
117
Army ##
(not many starters are returning)
-1.0

5.67
6.65

112
4-7
-3.2
117
last
season
118
Kent State
(Problems since the departure of Hazell.)
-0.9

4.83
5.75


107
2-9
-3.2
118
last
season
119
Miami (Ohio) ##
(positive momentum in Oxford, but a slow process)
-0.6

5.45
6.03

111
2-10
-3.2
119
last
season
120
North Texas
(McCarney's top 2013 season followed by bleak 2014. The offense was the weak link.)
-0.6

4.87
5.48

121
4-8
-3.2
120
last
season
121
Troy #
(Neal Brown as college football's 2nd youngest HC brings new life to Trojans?)
-1.0

5.34
6.38

117
3-9
-3.3
121
last
season
122
UNLV #
(Rebels hired HC Tony Sanchez out of the high school coaching ranks and Barney Cotton from the Huskers as OC. Nowhere to go but up, for sure.)
-1.4

5.22
6.58

95
2-11
-3.4
122
last
season
123
Tulsa #
(Philip Montgomery, an Art Briles assistant at Baylor, attempts to resurrect Golden Hurricane fortunes.)
-1.8

5.17
6.95

92
2-10
-3.5
123
last
season
124
New Mexico St.
(Increased depth may lead to better results, but weak defense must be fortified)
-1.0

5.48
6.50

124

2-10

-3.5
124
last
season
125
Georgia State 
(Minimal success thus far means more attention to the football program by the university is necessary.)
-1.2

5.39
6.57

115
1-11
-3.5
125
last
season
126
SMU #
(Clemson's former OC Chad Morris to lead Mustang fortunes in 2015.)
-2.5

4.08
6.62

71
1-11
-3.5
126
last
season
127
Idaho
(New DC Mike Breske from Washington State has work to do to shore up defense.)
-1.7

5.21
6.93

122
1-10
-3.6
127
last
season
128
E. Michigan ## 
(Can Chris Creighton go to 4 wins this year?)
-2.3

4.46
6.75

113
2-10
-3.7
128
----

Charlotte 49ers 
(new to FBS in 2015, this keeps Conference USA at 13 teams)
---

---
---

---
---
-3.8
129
last
season
86
UAB - ## 
(Blazers back in 2017)
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