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Saturday, November 16, 2019

College Football Prediction Results for Week 12 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Prediction Results for Week 12 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

We finished Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
45-10 in calling the winner
27-27-1 against the spread, and
27-27-1 against the over/under.

 
Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 12 is:
538-169 in calling the winner (76%)
347-346-14 against the spread, and
340-346-10 against the over/under ("total").


If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 11th week of play.


Tuesday, November 12, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Western Michigan at Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Broncos by 1 point at VegasInsider while the Broncos were listed as the spread consensus over the Bobcats by 1 point at Oddsshark, with an opening line of 1.5 points favoring Western Michigan. 
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64.5 points.
Our Call: 37-34 for Western Michigan.
Our own rankings put Western Michigan at a rating of -2.24 and Ohio at -2.60, an advantage of 3.6 points for the Broncos. If we take the standard three points as the Ohio home field advantage, then this would make the game nearly even. Kambour, however, calculates the Ohio home field advantage as only 0.8432 points. In addition, non-Saturday games can draw large TV audiences and teams seem to perform differently in that kind of limelight. Besides, we have historically often been off the mark on MAC game results, so, who knows!?
Result: Western Michigan won 37-34 in overtime. We prognosticated the exact score on this game, as occasionally happens.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
1-0 in calling the winner
1-0 against the spread, and
1-0 against the over/under.


Eastern Michigan at Akron
The Eagles were favored over the Zips by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 35-17 for Eastern Michigan. Our rankings rate Eastern Michigan at -2.95 and Akron at -4.99e, i.e. somewhere beyond that limit mark. Kambour calculates the Zips' home field advantage as 2.3312 points. Akron has had a 0-9 winless season thus far under 1st year head coach Tom Arth and its best loss is by 8 points to FBS next-to-last-ranked UMass. Akron is ranked last. Former Zips head coach Terry Bowden (4-8 at Akron in 2018) is currently an assistant at Clemson. Chris Creighton in 2014 became the head coach at Eastern Michigan, 2-10 in 2013, 4-5 this year, with e.g. a 34-31 win over Big Ten Illinois.
Result: 42-14 for Eastern Michigan.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-0 in calling the winner
2-0 against the spread, and
2-0 against the over/under.


Wednesday, November 13, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Bowling Green at Miami of Ohio
The RedHawks were favored over the Falcons by 18.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52 points.
Our Call: 34-13 for Miami.
Our rankings rate the RedHawks at -2.66 and the Falcons at 4.82, equivalent to ca. 21 points. Miami of Ohio is known as the cradle of coaches and was also the alma mater of the NFL Steelers' Super Bowl champion QB Ben Roethlisberger. The RedHawks' current football head coach, Chuck Martin, came to Miami via Notre Dame and after previously winning NCAA Division II football championships at Grand Valley State. This year Miami of Ohio could win the MAC East Division title.
Result: 44-3 for Miami of Ohio.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
3-0 in calling the winner
3-0 against the spread, and
3-0 against the over/under.


Northern Illinois at Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Huskies by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Toledo. Our rating for the Huskies is -2.73 and for the Rockets -2.86, equivalent to 1.3 scoreboard points. The Toledo defense is weaker but the Huskies' offense is weaker, so who prevails?
Result: 31-28 for Northern Illinois.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
3-1 in calling the winner
3-1 against the spread, and
4-0 against the over/under.


Thursday, November 14, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Buffalo at Kent State
The Bulls were favored over the Golden Flashes by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Buffalo. Our rating for Buffalo is -2.77 and for Kent State 3.06, equivalent to a difference of 2.9 scoreboard points.
Result: 30-27 for Kent State. Buffalo blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter as the Golden Flashes, whose offense was ranked 92nd in the country by cfbstats.com going into this game, scored 24 unanswered points in 8 minutes, including a recovered on-side kick with quick subsequent touchdown, and then a game-winning 44-yard field goal by Matthew Trickett as time expired.

For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
3-2 in calling the winner
3-2 against the spread, and
4-1 against the over/under.


North Carolina at Pittsburgh
The Panthers were favored over the Tar Heels by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Pittsburgh. Our rating for Pittsburgh is -0.29 and for North Carolina -0.38, equivalent to a difference of 0.9 scoreboard points.
Result: Pittsburgh beat North Carolina 34-27 in overtime.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
4-2 in calling the winner
3-3 against the spread, and
4-2 against the over/under.


Friday, November 15, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Louisiana Tech at Marshall
The Thundering Herd were favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Louisiana Tech. Our rating for Louisiana Tech is -2.01 and for Marshall -2.06, equivalent to a difference of 0.5 scoreboard points.
Result: Marshall beat Louisiana Tech 31-10, as the Thundering Herd outgained the Bulldogs 405 to 261 yards total offense, limiting Louisiana Tech to only 67 yards rushing. Update: Three key players for Louisiana Tech including senior starting quarterback L'Mar Smith were suspended for this game. One has to know these things in advance of making predictions....
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
4-3 in calling the winner
3-4 against the spread, and
4-3 against the over/under.


Fresno State at San Diego State
The Aztecs were favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 44.5 points.
Our Call: 24-22 for San Diego State. Our rating for Fresno State is -1.42 and for San Diego State -1.54, equivalent to a difference of 1.1 scoreboard points.
Result: 17-7 for San Diego State as the Aztecs outgained the Bulldogs 425 to 206 yards, limiting Fresno State to 70 yards rushing.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
5-3 in calling the winner
3-5 against the spread, and
4-4 against the over/under.


Saturday, November 16, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line.... However, there is some opening line divergence this week between the various services and hence we lean toward half-point odds, which permit no ties.

Indiana at Penn State
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Hoosiers by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Penn State. Our rating for Penn State is +0.16 and for Indiana -0.95, equivalent to a difference of 11.1 scoreboard points.
Result: 34-27 for Penn State. Indiana outgained Penn State 462 to 375 yards total offense but failed to come out on top on the scoreboard.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
6-3 in calling the winner
4-5 against the spread, and
4-5 against the over/under.


Kansas at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Jayhawks by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 65 points.
Our Call: 41-27 for Oklahoma State. Our rating for Oklahoma State is +0.00 and for Kansas -1.24, equivalent to a difference of 12.4 scoreboard points.
Result: Oklahoma State topped Kansas 31-13.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
7-3 in calling the winner
4-6 against the spread, and
4-6 against the over/under.


Florida at Missouri
The Gators were favored over the Tigers by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Florida. Our rating for Florida is +0.84 and for Missouri -0.62, equivalent to a difference of 14.6 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Missouri home field advantage at 7.6146 points. That makes 7 ... the line. To decide whether to go above or below that we could look at actual performance, the net average yards per play advantage ("NAYPPA"), uncalibrated by schedule difficulty, since schedule difficulty ranking is less objective than raw ypp. Florida has a NAYPPA of +1.44 and Missouri a NAYPPA of +1.09, a difference of only 3.5 scoreboard points. On the other hand, we rank Florida's schedule diffulty as an adjusted "20th" while MasseyRatings for FBS teams ranks Florida's schedule difficulty as "8th", which would put Florida's adjusted SD at +1.20, giving a difference of 18.2 scoreboard points to Mizzou, so one could go either way.
Result: 23-6 for Florida
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
8-3 in calling the winner
4-7 against the spread, and
4-7 against the over/under.


Alabama State (FCS) at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Hornets by 40.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 45-7 for Florida State. For games involving FBS and FCS teams, we look among other things to team rankings in MasseyRatings Division I rankings, where Florida State is ranked at 59th and FCS Alabama State at 222nd, just a few places above FBS UMass (230th) and Akron (231st), both of which we rate at -4.99e (i.e. somewhere beyond -4.99). Compare Florida State at 50th in our own rankings with a rating of -0.97, a difference of 40.2 or more scoreboard points to -4.99e. Sometimes it is quite amazing via these calculations that we nevertheless come so close to the "line", here set at 40.5 points. The Hornets won-loss recod this season is 5-4 with an average opponent rank of 238th as opposed to Florida State's 42nd. Alabama State kept close to UAB in losing 24-19 early in the season so we go under 40 in our call of the score. 
Result: 49-12 for Florida State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
9-3 in calling the winner
5-7 against the spread, and
4-8 against the over/under.


Massachusetts at Northwestern
The Wildcats were favored over the Minutemen by 39.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for Northwestern. Our rating for Northwestern is -1.77 and for Massachusetts -4.99e, equivalent to a difference of 32.2 or more scoreboard points. We rank UMass 129th out of 130 FBS teams.
Result: 45-6 for Northwestern.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
10-3 in calling the winner
6-7 against the spread, and
5-8 against the over/under.


Alabama at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Bulldogs by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 44-20 for Alabama. Our rating for Alabama is +2.20 and for Mississippi State -0.94, equivalent to a difference of 31.4 scoreboard points, minus the Mississippi State home field advantage, which Kambour calculates as 7.3010 points. That makes 24. The average yards per play stat total per team (offense plus defense) of 11 we equate with 55 scoreboard points per game (5x11). An average ypp stat total per team of 12.5 as here we calculate as manifesting more scoreboard points than average, for this game approximately 5x12.5 = 62.5 points, matching the betting over/under. We then look to find a reasonable score matching those figures.
Result: 38-7 for Alabama.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
11-3 in calling the winner
7-7 against the spread, and
5-9 against the over/under.


Michigan State at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Spartans by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 27-14 for Michigan. Our rating for Michigan is +0.31 and for Michigan State -0.26, which we calculate as equivalent to a difference of 5.7 scoreboard points. Another big game in the Big House, for which Kambour calculates a home field advantage of 7.5508 scoreboard points. That makes 13.2508 scoreboard points.
Result: 44-10 for Michigan.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
12-3 in calling the winner
7-8 against the spread, and
5-10 against the over/under.


VMI (FCS) at Army
The Black Knights were favored over the Keydets by 34.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 49-17 for Army.
Result: 47-6 for Army.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
13-3 in calling the winner
7-9 against the spread, and
5-11 against the over/under.


Tulane at Temple
The Green Wave were favored over the Owls by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Tulane. Our rating for Tulane is -0.58 and for Temple -1.45, equivalent to a difference of 8.7 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Owls' home field advantage as 1.7688 points.
Result: 29-21 for Temple.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
13-4 in calling the winner
7-10 against the spread, and
6-11 against the over/under.


TCU at Texas Tech
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Red Raiders by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for TCU. Our rating for TCU is -0.23 and for Texas Tech -1.32, equivalent to a difference of ca. 11.1 scoreboard points, minus the Red Raiders' home field advantage, calculated by Kambour as 3.4798 points, makes 11.1 minus 3.48 = ca. 7.6 scoreboard points.
Result: 33-31 for TCU.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
14-4 in calling the winner
8-10 against the spread, and
7-11 against the over/under.


Wisconsin at Nebraska
The Badgers were favored over the Cornhuskers by 13 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for Wisconsin. Our rating for Wisconsin is +0.35 and for Nebraska -1.37, equivalent to a difference of 17.2 scoreboard points, minus the Huskers' home field advantage -- calculated by Kambour as 1.2432, but, as a Nebraska alum, we go for the standard 3 points here.
Result: 37-21 for Nebraska.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
15-4 in calling the winner
9-10 against the spread, and
7-12 against the over/under.


UTEP at UAB
The Blazers were favored over the Miners by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for UAB. Our rating for UAB is -2.63 and for Texas El Paso -4.97, equivalent to a difference of 23.4 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates an incredible 10.8371 points as the Alabama-Birmingham home field advantage.
Result: 37-10 for UAB.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
16-4 in calling the winner
10-10 against the spread, and
8-12 against the over/under.


Navy at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Midshipmen by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Notre Dame. Our rating for Notre Dame is +0.15 and for Navy -0.33, equivalent to a difference of 4.8 scoreboard points. Notre Dame's home field advantage according to Kambour is 2.2311 points, makes 7.0311 points.
Result: 52-20 for Notre Dame.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
17-4 in calling the winner
10-11 against the spread, and
9-12 against the over/under.


Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves were favored over the Chanticleers by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61.5 points.
Our Call: 36-24 for Arkansas State. Our rating for Arkansas State is -2.13 and for Coastal Carolina -2.97, equivalent to a difference of 8.4 scoreboard points, plus the home field advantage, according to Kambour 4.0878 points, makes 12.4878 points.
Result: 28-27 for Arkansas State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
18-4 in calling the winner
10-12 against the spread, and
10-12 against the over/under.


Idaho State (FCS) at BYU
The Cougars were favored over the Bengals by 33.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 31-13 for BYU. Our rating for BYU is -0.61, 38th in FBS. MasseyRatings has Idaho State ranked 183rd in the overall Division I rankings (FBS + FCS combined). Utah beat BYU 30-12 early in the yeear, and the Bengals lost to Utah 31-0 early in the season, but seem to have weakened since then, losing 48-5 to Eastern Washington in their last game.
Result: 42-10 for BYU.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
19-4 in calling the winner
11-12 against the spread, and
11-12 against the over/under.


Louisiana Monroe at Georgia Southern
The Eagles were favored over the Warhawks by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 36-26 for Georgia Southern. Our rating for Georgia Southern is -2.69 and for Louisiana Monroe -3.12, equivalent to a difference of 4.3 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates 5.6708 points as the Eagles' home field advantage.
Result: 51-29 for Georgia Southern.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
20-4 in calling the winner
12-12 against the spread, and
12-12 against the over/under.


Troy at Texas State
The Trojans were favored over the Bobcats by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Troy. Our rating for Troy is -3.11 and for Texas State -3.39, equivalent to a difference of 2.8 scoreboard points.
Result: 63-27 for Troy.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
21-4 in calling the winner
12-13 against the spread, and
12-13 against the over/under.


West Virginia at Kansas State
The Wildcats were favored over the Mountaineers by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Kansas State. Our rating for Kansas State is -1.08 and for West Virginia -1.46, equivalent to a difference of 3.8 scoreboard points, with K-State having a home field advantage of 2.3868 as calculated by Kambour, makes 6.1868 points.
Result: 24-20 for West Virginia.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
21-5 in calling the winner
13-13 against the spread, and
12-14 against the over/under.


Wake Forest at Clemson
The Tigers were favored over the Demon Deacons by 32.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Clemson. Our rating for Clemson is +1.49 and for Wake Forest -1.12, equivalent to a difference of 26.1 scoreboard points. Kombour's home field advantage for Clemson is a minus -2.5900 points, makes 23.51 points.The yards per play stats add up to 11.56 for Clemson and 11.57 for Wake Forest, an intersting confluence. 11.56 x 5 = ca. 58 total, predicted total score.
Result: 52-3 for Clemson.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
22-5 in calling the winner
13-14 against the spread, and
13-14 against the over/under.


Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Virginia Tech. Our rating for Georgia Tech is -1.99 and for Virginia Tech -2.03, equivalent to a difference of 0.4 scoreboard points. Kambour appears to calculate home field advantage by how teams perform as related to the betting spread. He gives Georgia Tech 4.9308 points. If that relates to the present betting line, then 5.5 minus 4.9308 would see an advantage of 0.5692 points to Virginia Tech. So we have a draw, as it were.
Result: 45-0 for Virginia Tech.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
23-5 in calling the winner
13-15 against the spread, and
13-15 against the over/under.


Ohio State at Rutgers
The Buckeyes were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 50.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 64-0 for Ohio State. Ohio State is our top-ranked team with phenomenal NAYPPA stats. Our rating for the Buckeyes is 2.50 and for Rutgers -4.23, equivalent to a difference of 67.3 scoreboard points, minus the Rutgers home field advantage according to Kambour of 2.8263, makes 64.4737 points.
Result: 56-21 for Ohio State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
24-5 in calling the winner
13-16 against the spread, and
14-15 against the over/under.


Central Michigan at Ball State
The Cardinals were favored over the Chippewas by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 30-28 for Ball State. Our rating for Ball State is -2.46 and for Central Michigan -2.50, equivalent to a difference of 0.4 scoreboard points, plus the Ball State Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 1.3132, makes 1.7132 points.
Result: 45-44 for Central Michigan.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
24-6 in calling the winner
14-16 against the spread, and
15-15 against the over/under.


Texas at Iowa State
The Cyclones were favored over the Longhorns by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Iowa State. Our rating for Iowa State is +0.07 and for Texas -0.39, equivalent to a difference of 4.6 scoreboard points. Adding the Kambour Iowa State home field advantage to that would make Iowa State a 10-point favorite.... We are skeptical of that here.
Result: 23-21 for Iowa State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
25-6 in calling the winner
15-16 against the spread, and
16-15 against the over/under.


Memphis at Houston
The Tigers were favored over the Cougars by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 68.5 points (the quoted opening lines diverge here so much that we use a more updated figure).
Our Call: 42-28 for Memphis. Our rating for Memphis is -0.05 and for Houston -2.00, equivalent to a difference of 19.5 scoreboard points. The Houston home field advantage is seen as 5.7794 by Kambour, makes 13.7206.
Result: 45-27 for Memphis.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
26-6 in calling the winner
16-16 against the spread, and
17-15 against the over/under.


Georgia at Auburn
The Dawgs were favored over the Tigers by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 42.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Auburn. Our rating for Auburn is +1.06 and for Georgia +0.98, equivalent to a difference of 0.8 scoreboard points plus the Kambour-calculated Auburn home field advantage of 3.755 points makes 4.555 points.
Result: 21-14 for Georgia.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
26-7 in calling the winner
16-17 against the spread, and
17-16 against the over/under.


Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Wildcats were favored over the Commodores by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 43.5 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Kentucky. Our rating for Kentucky is -1.39 and for Vanderbilt -2.59, equivalent to a difference of 12 scoreboard points, minus the Kambour-calculated Vandy home field advantage of 3.2925 makes 8.7075 points.
Result: 38-14 for Kentucky.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
27-7 in calling the winner
16-18 against the spread, and
18-16 against the over/under.


Hawai'i at UNLV
The Warriors were favored over the Rebels by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69.5 points.
Our Call: 47-23 for Hawai'i. Our rating for Hawaii is -1.43 and for UNLV -3.39, equivalent to a difference of 19.6 scoreboard points. The UNLV home field advantage is a minus -4.46639 according to Kambour, makes 24.06639 points. Is it the impact of "Las Vegas"?
Result: 21-7 for Hawaii.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
28-7 in calling the winner
17-18 against the spread, and
18-17 against the over/under.


Syracuse at Duke
The Blue Devils were favored over the Orange by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 30-23 for Duke. Our rating for Duke is -1.45 and for Syracuse -2.41, equivalent to a difference of 9.6 scoreboard points. Duke has a negative home field advantage, according to Kambour, of -2.8921, makes 6.7079 points
Result: 49-6 for Syracuse.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
28-8 in calling the winner
18-18 against the spread, and
18-18 against the over/under.


Minnesota at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Golden Gophers by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 44.5 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Iowa. Our rating for Minnesota is +0.23 and for Iowa +0.02, equivalent to a difference of 2.1 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates only a 0.2811-point home field advantage for the Hawkeyes. We go here with the standard 3 points.
Result: 23-19 for Iowa.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
29-8 in calling the winner
18-19 against the spread, and
18-19 against the over/under.


Wyoming at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Cowboys by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 30-23 for Utah State. Our rating for Utah State is -1.31 and for Wyoming -1.58, equivalent to a difference of 2.7 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the home field advantage of Utah State at 4.5728, makes 7.2728 points.
Result: 26-21 for Utah State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
30-8 in calling the winner
18-20 against the spread, and
18-20 against the over/under.


Incarnate Word (FCS) at New Mexico State
The Aggies were favored over the Cardinals by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for New Mexico State. Our rating for New Mexico State in FBS is -4.46. MasseyRatings has New Mexico State 179th and Incarnate Word 191st in the Division I FBS + FCS rankings. Incarnate Word lost to UTSA 35-7 at the start of this season.
Result: 41-28 for New Mexico State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
31-8 in calling the winner
19-20 against the spread, and
18-21 against the over/under.


Stanford at Washington State
The Cougars were favored over the Cardinals by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 38-23 for Washington State. Our rating for Washington State is -0.44 and for Stanford -1.14, equivalent to a difference of 7 scoreboard points, plus the Washington State home field Kambour-calculated advantage of 8.4009 points, makes 15.4009 points.
Result: 49-22 for Washington State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
32-8 in calling the winner
20-20 against the spread, and
18-22 against the over/under.


Rice at Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders were favored over the Owls by 11.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 44-13 for MTSU. Our rating for Middle Tennessee is -2.32 and for Rice -4.42??, equivalent to a difference of 21 scoreboard points plus the MTSU home field advantage, 10.4164 points according to Kambour, makes 31.4164 points.
Result: 31-28 for Rice.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
32-9 in calling the winner
20-21 against the spread, and
19-22 against the over/under.


Louisiana Lafyette at South Alabama
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Jaguars by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 41-14 for UL Lafayette. Our rating for Louisiana is -0.71 and for South Alabama -3.73, equivalent to a difference of 30.2 scoreboard points minus the Jaguars' 3-point home field advantage makes 27.
Result: 37-27 for Louisiana.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
33-9 in calling the winner
20-22 against the spread, and
20-22 against the over/under.


Southern Mississippi at UTSA Texas San Antonio
The Eagles were favored over the Roadrunners by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 41-23 for Southern Miss. Our rating for Southern Miss is -2.21 and for UTSA -3.99, equivalent to a difference of 17.8 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the home field advantage of UTSA as a minus -0.6520 points, makes 18.4520.
Result: 36-17 for Southern Miss.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
34-9 in calling the winner
21-22 against the spread, and
21-22 against the over/under.


Air Force at Colorado State
The Falcons were favored over the Rams by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 36-24 for Air Force. Our rating for Air Force is -0.72 and for Colorado State -2.34, equivalent to a difference of 16.2 scoreboard points, minus the Rams' home field Kambour-calculated advantage of 4.3192, makes 11.8808 points.
Result: 38-21 for Air Force.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
35-9 in calling the winner
22-22 against the spread, and
21-22-1 against the over/under.


Cinicinnati at South Florida
The Bearcats were favored over the Bulls by 12.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 37-17 for Cincinnati. Our rating for Cincinnati is -0.18 and for South Florida -2.38, equivalent to a difference of 22 scoreboard points. The Bulls' home field advantage is calculated by Kambour as a minus -1.8988 makes 20.1012 points.
Result: 20-17 for Cincinnati.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
36-9 in calling the winner
22-23 against the spread, and
21-23-1 against the over/under.


LSU at Mississippi
The Tigers were favored over the Rebels? by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 51-17 for LSU. Our rating for LSU is +2.42 and for Mississippi -1.07, equivalent to a difference of 34.9 scoreboard points, minus the Ole Miss home field Kambour-calculated advantage of 1.2451 points,makes 33.6549 points.
Result: 58-37 for LSU.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
37-9 in calling the winner
22-23-1 against the spread, and
22-23-1 against the over/under.


Arizona State at Oregon State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Beavers by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 33-24 for Arizona State. Our rating for Arizona State is -0.61 and for Oregon State -1.39, equivalent to a difference of 7.8 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Beavers' home field advantage as a minus -1.7010 points, makes 8.9 points.
Result: 35-34 for Oregon State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
37-10 in calling the winner
22-24-1 against the spread, and
22-24-1 against the over/under.


Appalachian State at Georgia State
The Mountaineers were favored over the Panthers by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Appalachian State. Our rating for Appalachian State is -0.29 and for Georgia State -2.77, equivalent to a difference of 24.8 scoreboard points minus the Georgia State Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 0.8094 makes 24 points.
Result: 56-27 for Appalachian State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
38-10 in calling the winner
23-24-1 against the spread, and
22-25-1 against the over/under.


Louisville at North Carolina State
The Cardinals were favored over the Wolfpack by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Louisville. Our rating for Louisville is -0.86 and for NC State -2.48, equivalent to a difference of 16.2 scoreboard points minus the Wolfpack home field advantage of 6.7575, as calculated by Kambour, makes 9.4425.
Result: 34-20 for Lousiville.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
39-10 in calling the winner
24-24-1 against the spread, and
23-25-1 against the over/under.


South Carolina at Texas A&M
The Aggies were favored over the Gamecocks by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Texas A&M. Our rating for Texas A&M is +0.08 and for South Carolina -0.31, equivalent to a difference of 3.9 scoreboard points, plus the Texas A&M Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 2.7204 makes 6.6204 points.
Result: 30-6 for Texas A&M.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
40-10 in calling the winner
24-25-1 against the spread, and
23-26-1 against the over/under.


Oklahoma at Baylor
The Sooners were favored over the Bears by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 44-31 for Oklahoma. Our rating for Oklahoma is +2.01 and for Baylor +0.47, equivalent to a difference of 15.4 scoreboard points minus the Kambour-calculated Baylor home field advantage of 2.5570, makes 12.843 points.
Result: 34-31 for Oklahoma, as the Sooners came back incredibly from a 28-3 deficit including 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
41-10 in calling the winner
24-26-1 against the spread, and
23-27-1 against the over/under.


UCLA at Utah
The Utes were favored over the Bruins by 20.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 37-17 for Utah. Our rating for Utah is +0.70 and for UCLA -1.12, equivalent to a difference of 18.2 scoreboard points plus the Utah Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 1.2443 points, makes 19.4443 points.
Result: 49-3 for Utah.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
42-10 in calling the winner
24-27-1 against the spread, and
24-27-1 against the over/under.


New Mexico at Boise State
The Broncos were favored over the Lobos by 28.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 44-13 for Boise State. Our rating for Boise State is -0.84 and for New Mexico -3.88, equivalent to a difference of 30.4 scoreboard points. The Boise State home field advantage is a minus -0.1889 according to Kambour.
Result: 42-9 for Boise State.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
43-10 in calling the winner
25-27-1 against the spread, and
25-27-1 against the over/under.


Arizona at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Wildcats by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 68.5 points.
Our Call: 44-17 for Oregon. Our rating for Oregon is +0.70 and for Arizona -1.48, equivalent to a difference of 21.8 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Oregon home field advantage as 3.8820 points, makes 25.6820 points.
Result: 34-6 for Oregon.
For Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
44-10 in calling the winner
26-27-1 against the spread, and
26-27-1 against the over/under.


USC at California
The Trojans were favored over the Bears by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for USC. Our rating for USC is -0.05 and for Cal -0.89, equivalent to a difference of 8.4 scoreboard points minus the Cal home field advantage, calculated by Kambour as 1.7592 points, makes 6.6408 points.
Result: 41-17 for USC.
We thus finished Week 12 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
45-10 in calling the winner
27-27-1 against the spread, and
27-27-1 against the over/under.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Sports and Politics: The Attempted Control of Events by Faceless Committees as a Blight on Our Era

A question up front....
WHO runs the world?
The answer is....
WE do. ALL of us.

But this does not stop "committee-type thinkers" from thinking
that THEY do, or should, run things.
Hubris. Arrogance. Monopolistic thinking.

No, thank you. YOU do not run the world. WE do. WE ALL do. Think about it.

The so-called "rankings" of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee are an example of much that is wrong with "our" world.

In their first rankings of the present college football season the previous week, the CFP Selection Committee surprised everyone by putting Penn State 4th. It was a "we know better" selection, an exercise in hubris contrary to poll and expert rankings, and it did not turn out well. The highly favored Nittany Lions promptly lost that same weekend to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

What were Committee members thinking in making such a controversial selection, mocked subsequently by the actual results on the football field?

Penn State may have a fine team, but their season performance up to that time had simply not yet justified such a high ranking. Top 10, yes, Top 4, no.

UNDAUNTED, however, and not having learned a thing, a similar error has once again been committed this week by that same CFP Selection Committee. Who are these virtually faceless selectors? operating behind closed doors.

It is a Committee consisting of athletic directors or former athletic directors, former college football players, newspaper reporters, and the like, but there appears to be NO ONE on the Committee who is expert in ranking college football teams. So what are committee members qualifications for THAT??

In our view, Committee members are people merely "playing at selection", but, make no mistake, with serious consequences. Their team selections are ultimately worth dollar millions to the schools selected.

We would like to see a multi-million-dollar contest of these great pretenders against, for example, oddsmakers in Las Vegas ... just kidding of course. But we all know where the experts are sitting, and they are not on the Committee.

It was thus less of a surprise this 2nd week, when the world was once again astonished by the Committee vaulting the already once-beaten Georgia Dawgs into 4th position, moving the similarly once-beaten Alabama Crimson Tide to 5th place because of their narrow 46-41 loss to now top-ranked LSU.

We do not doubt that Georgia has a fine team, but their ranking in 4th place currently can only be viewed as some unknown people's personal athletico-political preference. A couple of good wins do not make a season nor determine champions. The entire record is determinative.

In a one-on-one matchup, who doubts that Alabama would be favored by the oddsmakers? Not many.

As compared to Alabama's narrow loss to undefeated LSU, Georgia's one loss was at home to unranked South Carolina, 20-17, a team with six losses this season. Indeed, as one can review in various expert-run ranking services, such as the Massey Ratings, the Bulldogs have thus far played one of the weakest FBS schedules in the Top 10 this season. MasseyRatings e.g. rank Georgia's schedule up to the present date at 39th place with only Clemson worse (schedule difficulty 66) among the top 10.

OTHER teams -- for now -- simply have better credentials.

We rank Georgia 7th in our own rankings, not that bad at all, but they simply do not have the actual performance legitimacy to be ranked higher than that, regardless of what one "thinks" of the team itself.

Maybe people think Georgia will win its SEC Division title and then win the SEC Conference Championship game. It is not impossible, of course, but rankings should be based on performance thus far, not on wishful thinking about the future. Otherwise, teams need not play any real games on the field at all, because some committee somewhere will tell us all what is what, regardless.

Perhaps this "rule by committee" is a decadent sign of the times. We see the same process occurring currently in the U.S. Congress in the House of Representatives, where virtually faceless committees and their members are trying to tell us what is what from behind closed doors. We think, no, thank you. Political elections exist to elect candidates. If you don't like one, vote for another. That's democracy. Congress has responsibilities other than trying to run the country from their committee chairs, God forbid, a task for which they are generally ill-prepared. We say: "Their main claim to fame is the campaign".

Some of us out here are not fooled, either in politics, or in football.

In fact, as opposed to politics, where "slight of hand" action is the name of the game, the great thing about sports is that champions are viz. should be determined by their performance on the field, and not by shameless partisan popularity contests in faceless and behind-the-scenes committee playrooms.

Similarly, given the recent UCF fiasco, it is time to establish a playoff system by which a national champion is determined ON THE FIELD and not by some faceless persons sitting on some athletico-political selection committee.

May the best team win.




Wednesday, November 13, 2019

College Football Predictions for Week 12 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Predictions for Week 12 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 11 is:
493-159 in calling the winner (76%)
320-319-13 against the spread, and
313-319-9 against the over/under ("total").


If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 11th week of play.


Tuesday, November 12, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Western Michigan at Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Broncos by 1 point at VegasInsider while the Broncos were listed as the spread consensus over the Bobcats by 1 point at Oddsshark, with an opening line of 1.5 points favoring Western Michigan. 
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64.5 points.
Our Call: 37-34 for Western Michigan.
Our own rankings put Western Michigan at a rating of -2.24 and Ohio at -2.60, an advantage of 3.6 points for the Broncos. If we take the standard three points as the Ohio home field advantage, then this would make the game nearly even. Kambour, however, calculates the Ohio home field advantage as only 0.8432 points. In addition, non-Saturday games can draw large TV audiences and teams seem to perform differently in that kind of limelight. Besides, we have historically often been off the mark on MAC game results, so, who knows!?
Result: ??.

Eastern Michigan at Akron
The Eagles were favored over the Zips by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 35-17 for Eastern Michigan. Our rankings rate Eastern Michigan at -2.95 and Akron at -4.99e, i.e. somewhere beyond that limit mark. Kambour calculates the Zips' home field advantage as 2.3312 points. Akron has had a 0-9 winless season thus far under 1st year head coach Tom Arth and its best loss is by 8 points to FBS next-to-last-ranked UMass. Akron is ranked last. Former Zips head coach Terry Bowden (4-8 at Akron in 2018) is currently an assistant at Clemson. Chris Creighton in 2014 became the head coach at Eastern Michigan, 2-10 in 2013, 4-5 this year, with e.g. a 34-31 win over Big Ten Illinois.
Result: ??.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Bowling Green at Miami of Ohio
The RedHawks were favored over the Falcons by 18.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52 points.
Our Call: 34-13 for Miami.
Our rankings rate the RedHawks at -2.66 and the Falcons at 4.82, equivalent to ca. 21 points. Miami of Ohio is known as the cradle of coaches and was also the alma mater of the NFL Steelers' Super Bowl champion QB Ben Roethlisberger. The RedHawks' current football head coach, Chuck Martin, came to Miami via Notre Dame and after previously winning NCAA Division II football championships at Grand Valley State. This year Miami of Ohio could win the MAC East Division title.
Result: ??.

Northern Illinois at Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Huskies by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Toledo. Our rating for the Huskies is -2.73 and for the Rockets -2.86, equivalent to 1.3 scoreboard points. The Toledo defense is weaker but the Huskies' offense is weaker, so who prevails?
Result: ??.

Thursday, November 14, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Buffalo at Kent State
The Bulls were favored over the Golden Flashes by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Buffalo. Our rating for Buffalo is -2.77 and for Kent State 3.06, equivalent to a difference of 2.9 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh
The Panthers were favored over the Tar Heels by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Pittsburgh. Our rating for Pittsburgh is -0.29 and for North Carolina -0.38, equivalent to a difference of 0.9 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

Friday, November 15, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Louisiana Tech at Marshall
The Thundering Herd were favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Louisiana Tech. Our rating for Louisiana Tech is -2.01 and for Marshall -2.06, equivalent to a difference of 0.5 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

Fresno State at San Diego State
The Aztecs were favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 44.5 points.
Our Call: 24-22 for San Diego State. Our rating for Fresno State is -1.42 and for San Diego State -1.54, equivalent to a difference of 1.1 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

Saturday, November 16, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line.... However, there is some opening line divergence this week between the various services and hence we lean toward half-point odds, which permit no ties.

Indiana at Penn State
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Hoosiers by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Penn State. Our rating for Penn State is +0.16 and for Indiana -0.95, equivalent to a difference of 11.1 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

Kansas at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Jayhawks by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 65 points.
Our Call: 41-27 for Oklahoma State. Our rating for Oklahoma State is +0.00 and for Kansas -1.24, equivalent to a difference of 12.4 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

Florida at Missouri
The Gators were favored over the Tigers by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Florida. Our rating for Florida is +0.84 and for Missouri -0.62, equivalent to a difference of 14.6 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Missouri home field advantage at 7.6146 points. That makes 7 ... the line. To decide whether to go above or below that we could look at actual performance, the net average yards per play advantage ("NAYPPA"), uncalibrated by schedule difficulty, since schedule difficulty ranking is less objective than raw ypp. Florida has a NAYPPA of +1.44 and Missouri a NAYPPA of +1.09, a difference of only 3.5 scoreboard points. On the other hand, we rank Florida's schedule diffulty as an adjusted "20th" while MasseyRatings for FBS teams ranks Florida's schedule difficulty as "8th", which would put Florida's adjusted SD at +1.20, giving a difference of 18.2 scoreboard points to Mizzou, so one could go either way.
Result: ??.

Alabama State (FCS) at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Hornets by 40.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 45-7 for Florida State. For games involving FBS and FCS teams, we look among other things to team rankings in MasseyRatings Division I rankings, where Florida State is ranked at 59th and FCS Alabama State at 222nd, just a few places above FBS UMass (230th) and Akron (231st), both of which we rate at -4.99e (i.e. somewhere beyond -4.99). Compare Florida State at 50th in our own rankings with a rating of -0.97, a difference of 40.2 or more scoreboard points to -4.99e. Sometimes it is quite amazing via these calculations that we nevertheless come so close to the "line", here set at 40.5 points. The Hornets won-loss recod this season is 5-4 with an average opponent rank of 238th as opposed to Florida State's 42nd. Alabama State kept close to UAB in losing 24-19 early in the season so we go under 40 in our call of the score. 
Result: ??.

Massachusetts at Northwestern
The Wildcats were favored over the Minutemen by 39.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for Northwestern. Our rating for Northwestern is -1.77 and for Massachusetts -4.99e, equivalent to a difference of 32.2 or more scoreboard points. We rank UMass 129th out of 130 FBS teams.
Result: ??.

Alabama at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Bulldogs by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 44-20 for Alabama. Our rating for Alabama is +2.20 and for Mississippi State -0.94, equivalent to a difference of 31.4 scoreboard points, minus the Mississippi State home field advantage, which Kambour calculates as 7.3010 points. That makes 24. The average yards per play stat total per team (offense plus defense) of 11 we equate with 55 scoreboard points per game (5x11). An average ypp stat total per team of 12.5 as here we calculate as manifesting more scoreboard points than average, for this game approximately 5x12.5 = 62.5 points, matching the betting over/under. We then look to find a reasonable score matching those figures.
Result: ??.

Michigan State at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Spartans by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 27-14 for Michigan. Our rating for Michigan is +0.31 and for Michigan State -0.26, which we calculate as equivalent to a difference of 5.7 scoreboard points. Another big game in the Big House, for which Kambour calculates a home field advantage of 7.5508 scoreboard points. That makes 13.2508 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

VMI (FCS) at Army
The Black Knights were favored over the Keydets by 34.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 49-17 for Army.
Result: ??.

Tulane at Temple
The Green Wave were favored over the Owls by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Tulane. Our rating for Tulane is -0.58 and for Temple -1.45, equivalent to a difference of 8.7 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Owls' home field advantage as 1.7688 points.
Result: ??.

TCU at Texas Tech
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Red Raiders by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for TCU. Our rating for TCU is -0.23 and for Texas Tech -1.32, equivalent to a difference of ca. 11.1 scoreboard points, minus the Red Raiders' home field advantage, calculated by Kambour as 3.4798 points, makes 11.1 minus 3.48 = ca. 7.6 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

Wisconsin at Nebraska
The Badgers were favored over the Cornhuskers by 13 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for Wisconsin. Our rating for Wisconsin is +0.35 and for Nebraska -1.37, equivalent to a difference of 17.2 scoreboard points, minus the Huskers' home field advantage -- calculated by Kambour as 1.2432, but, as a Nebraska alum, we go for the standard 3 points here.
Result: ??.

UTEP at UAB
The Blazers were favored over the Miners by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for UAB.
Result: ??. Our rating for UAB is -2.63 and for Texas El Paso -4.97, equivalent to a difference of 23.4 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates an incredible 10.8371 points as the Alabama-Birmingham home field advantage.

Navy at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Midshipmen by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Notre Dame. Our rating for Notre Dame is +0.15 and for Navy -0.33, equivalent to a difference of 4.8 scoreboard points. Notre Dame's home field advantage according to Kambour is 2.2311 points, makes 7.0311 points.
Result: ??.

Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves were favored over the Chanticleers by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61.5 points.
Our Call: 36-24 for Arkansas State. Our rating for Arkansas State is -2.13 and for Coastal Carolina -2.97, equivalent to a difference of 8.4 scoreboard points, plus the home field advantage, according to Kambour 4.0878 points, makes 12.4878 points.
Result: ??.

Idaho State (FCS) at BYU
The Cougars were favored over the Bengals by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 31-13 for BYU. Our rating for BYU is -0.61, 38th in FBS. MasseyRatings has Idaho State ranked 183rd in the overall Division I rankings (FBS + FCS combined). Utah beat BYU 30-12 early in the yeear, and the Bengals lost to Utah 31-0 early in the season, but seem to have weakened since then, losing 48-5 to Eastern Washington in their last game.
Result: ??.

Louisiana Monroe at Georgia Southern
The Eagles were favored over the Warhawks by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 36-26 for Georgia Southern. Our rating for Georgia Southern is -2.69 and for Louisiana Monroe -3.12, equivalent to a difference of 4.3 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates 5.6708 points as the Eagles' home field advantage.
Result: ??.

Troy at Texas State
The Trojans were favored over the Bobcats by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Troy. Our rating for Troy is -3.11 and for Texas State -3.39, equivalent to a difference of 2.8 scoreboard points.
Result: ??.

West Virginia at Kansas State
The Wildcats were favored over the Mountaineers by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Kansas State. Our rating for Kansas State is -1.08 and for West Virginia -1.46, equivalent to a difference of 3.8 scoreboard points, with K-State having a home field advantage of 2.3868 as calculated by Kambour, makes 6.1868 points.
Result: ??.

Wake Forest at Clemson
The Tigers were favored over the Demon Deacons by 32.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Clemson. Our rating for Clemson is +1.49 and for Wake Forest -1.12, equivalent to a difference of 26.1 scoreboard points. Kombour's home field advantage for Clemson is a minus -2.5900 points, makes 23.51 points.The yards per play stats add up to 11.56 for Clemson and 11.57 for Wake Forest, an intersting confluence. 11.56 x 5 = ca. 58 total, predicted total score.
Result: ??.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Virginia Tech. Our rating for Georgia Tech is -1.99 and for Virginia Tech -2.03, equivalent to a difference of 0.4 scoreboard points. Kambour appears to calculate home field advantage by how teams perform as related to the betting spread. He gives Georgia Tech 4.9308 points. If that relates to the present betting line, then 5.5 minus 4.9308 would see an advantage of 0.5692 points to Virginia Tech. So we have a draw, as it were.
Result: ??.

Ohio State at Rutgers
The Buckeyes were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 50.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 64-0 for Ohio State. Ohio State is our top-ranked team with phenomenal NAYPPA stats. Our rating for the Buckeyes is 2.50 and for Rutgers -4.23, equivalent to a difference of 67.3 scoreboard points, minus the Rutgers home field advantage according to Kambour of 2.8263, makes 64.4737 points.
Result: ??.

Central Michigan at Ball State
The Cardinals were favored over the Chippewas by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 30-28 for Ball State. Our rating for Ball State is -2.46 and for Central Michigan -2.50, equivalent to a difference of 0.4 scoreboard points, plus the Ball State Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 1.3132, makes 1.7132 points.
Result: ??.

Texas at Iowa State
The Cyclones were favored over the Longhorns by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Iowa State. Our rating for Iowa State is +0.07 and for Texas -0.39, equivalent to a difference of 4.6 scoreboard points. Adding the Kambour Iowa State home field advantage to that would make Iowa State a 10-point favorite.... We are skeptical of that here.
Result: ??.

Memphis at Houston
The Tigers were favored over the Cougars by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 68.5 points (the quoted opening lines diverge here so much that we use a more updated figure).
Our Call: 42-28 for Memphis. Our rating for Memphis is -0.05 and for Houston -2.00, equivalent to a difference of 19.5 scoreboard points. The Houston home field advantage is seen as 5.7794 by Kambour, makes 13.7206.
Result: ??.

Georgia at Auburn
The Dawgs were favored over the Tigers by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 42.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Auburn. Our rating for Auburn is +1.06 and for Georgia +0.98, equivalent to a difference of 0.8 scoreboard points plus the Kambour-calculated Auburn home field advantage of 3.755 points makes 4.555 points.
Result: ??.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Wildcats were favored over the Commodores by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 43.5 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Kentucky. Our rating for Kentucky is -1.39 and for Vanderbilt -2.59, equivalent to a difference of 12 scoreboard points, minus the Kambour-calculated Vandy home field advantage of 3.2925 makes 8.7075 points.
Result: ??.

Hawai'i at UNLV
The Warriors were favored over the Rebels by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69.5 points.
Our Call: 47-23 for Hawai'i. Our rating for Hawaii is -1.43 and for UNLV -3.39, equivalent to a difference of 19.6 scoreboard points. The UNLV home field advantage is a minus -4.46639 according to Kambour, makes 24.06639 points. Is it the impact of "Las Vegas"?
Result: ??.

Syracuse at Duke
The Blue Devils were favored over the Orange by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 30-23 for Duke. Our rating for Duke is -1.45 and for Syracuse -2.41, equivalent to a difference of 9.6 scoreboard points. Duke has a negative home field advantage, according to Kambour, of -2.8921, makes 6.7079 points
Result: ??.

Minnesota at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Golden Gophers by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 44.5 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Iowa. Our rating for Minnesota is +0.23 and for Iowa +0.02, equivalent to a difference of 2.1 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates only a 0.2811-point home field advantage for the Hawkeyes. We go here with the standard 3 points.
Result: ??.

Wyoming at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Cowboys by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 30-23 for Utah State. Our rating for Utah State is -1.31 and for Wyoming -1.58, equivalent to a difference of 2.7 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the home field advantage of Utah State at 4.5728, makes 7.2728 points.
Result: ??.

Incarnate Word (FCS) at New Mexico State
The Aggies were favored over the Cardinals by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for New Mexico State. Our rating for New Mexico State in FBS is -4.46. MasseyRatings has New Mexico State 179th and Incarnate Word 191st in the Division I FBS + FCS rankings. Incarnate Word lost to UTSA 35-7 at the start of this season.
Result: ??.

Stanford at Washington State
The Cougars were favored over the Cardinals by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 38-23 for Washington State. Our rating for Washington State is -0.44 and for Stanford -1.14, equivalent to a difference of 7 scoreboard points, plus the Washington State home field Kambour-calculated advantage of 8.4009 points, makes 15.4009 points.
Result: ??.

Rice at Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders were favored over the Owls by 11.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 44-13 for MTSU. Our rating for Middle Tennessee is -2.32 and for Rice -4.42??, equivalent to a difference of 21 scoreboard points plus the MTSU home field advantage, 10.4164 points according to Kambour, makes 31.4164 points.
Result: ??.

Louisiana Lafyette at South Alabama
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Jaguars by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 41-14 for UL Lafayette. Our rating for Louisiana is -0.71 and for South Alabama -3.73, equivalent to a difference of 30.2 scoreboard points minus the Jaguars' 3-point home field advantage makes 27.
Result: ??.

Southern Mississippi at UTSA Texas San Antonio
The Eagles were favored over the Roadrunners by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 41-23 for Southern Miss. Our rating for Southern Miss is -2.21 and for UTSA -3.99, equivalent to a difference of 17.8 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the home field advantage of UTSA as a minus -0.6520 points, makes 18.4520.
Result: ??.

Air Force at Colorado State
The Falcons were favored over the Rams by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 36-24 for Air Force. Our rating for Air Force is -0.72 and for Colorado State -2.34, equivalent to a difference of 16.2 scoreboard points, minus the Rams' home field Kambour-calculated advantage of 4.3192, makes 11.8808 points.
Result: ??.

Cinicinnati at South Florida
The Bearcats were favored over the Bulls by 12.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 37-17 for Cincinnati. Our rating for Cincinnati is -0.18 and for South Florida -2.38, equivalent to a difference of 22 scoreboard points. The Bulls' home field advantage is calculated by Kambour as a minus -1.8988 makes 20.1012 points.
Result: ??.

LSU at Mississippi
The Tigers were favored over the Rebels? by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 51-17 for LSU. Our rating for LSU is +2.42 and for Mississippi -1.07, equivalent to a difference of 34.9 scoreboard points, minus the Ole Miss home field Kambour-calculated advantage of 1.2451 points,makes 33.6549 points.
Result: ??.

Arizona State at Oregon State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Beavers by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 33-24 for Arizona State. Our rating for Arizona State is -0.61 and for Oregon State -1.39, equivalent to a difference of 7.8 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Beavers' home field advantage as a minus -1.7010 points, makes 8.9 points.
Result: ??.

Appalachian State at Georgia State
The Mountaineers were favored over the Panthers by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Appalachian State. Our rating for Appalachian State is -0.29 and for Georgia State -2.77, equivalent to a difference of 24.8 scoreboard points minus the Georgia State Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 0.8094 makes 24 points.
Result: ??.

Louisville at North Carolina State
The Cardinals were favored over the Wolfpack by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Louisville. Our rating for Louisville is -0.86 and for NC State -2.48, equivalent to a difference of 16.2 scoreboard points minus the Wolfpack home field advantage of 6.7575, as calculated by Kambour, makes 9.4425.
Result: ??.

South Carolina at Texas A&M
The Aggies were favored over the Gamecocks by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Texas A&M. Our rating for Texas A&M is +0.08 and for South Carolina -0.31, equivalent to a difference of 3.9 scoreboard points, plus the Texas A&M Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 2.7204 makes 6.6204 points.
Result: ??.

Oklahoma at Baylor
The Sooners were favored over the Bears by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 44-31 for Oklahoma. Our rating for Oklahoma is +2.01 and for Baylor +0.47, equivalent to a difference of 15.4 scoreboard points minus the Kambour-calculated Baylor home field advantage of 2.5570, makes 12.843 points.
Result: ??.

UCLA at Utah
The Utes were favored over the Bruins by 20.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 37-17 for Utah. Our rating for Utah is +0.70 and for UCLA -1.12, equivalent to a difference of 18.2 scoreboard points plus the Utah Kambour-calculated home field advantage of 1.2443 points, makes 19.4443 points.
Result: ??.

New Mexico at Boise State
The Broncos were favored over the Lobos by 28.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 44-13 for Boise State. Our rating for Boise State is -0.84 and for New Mexico -3.88, equivalent to a difference of 30.4 scoreboard points. The Boise State home field advantage is a minus -0.1889 according to Kambour.
Result: ??.

Arizona at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Wildcats by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 68.5 points.
Our Call: 44-17 for Oregon. Our rating for Oregon is +0.70 and for Arizona -1.48, equivalent to a difference of 21.8 scoreboard points. Kambour calculates the Oregon home field advantage as 3.8820 points, makes 25.6820 points.
Result: ??.

USC at California
The Trojans were favored over the Bears by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for USC. Our rating for USC is -0.05 and for Cal -0.89, equivalent to a difference of 8.4 scoreboard points minus the Cal home field advantage, calculated by Kambour as 1.7592 points, makes 6.6408 points.
Result: ??.

Sky Earth Native America


Sky Earth Native America 1 :
American Indian Rock Art Petroglyphs Pictographs
Cave Paintings Earthworks & Mounds as Land Survey & Astronomy
,
Volume 1, Edition 2, 266 pages, by Andis Kaulins.

  • Sky Earth Native America 2 :
    American Indian Rock Art Petroglyphs Pictographs
    Cave Paintings Earthworks & Mounds as Land Survey & Astronomy
    ,
    Volume 2, Edition 2, 262 pages, by Andis Kaulins.

  • Both volumes have the same cover except for the labels "Volume 1" viz. "Volume 2".
    The image on the cover was created using public domain space photos of Earth from NASA.

    -----

    Both book volumes contain the following basic book description:
    "Alice Cunningham Fletcher observed in her 1902 publication in the American Anthropologist
    that there is ample evidence that some ancient cultures in Native America, e.g. the Pawnee in Nebraska,
    geographically located their villages according to patterns seen in stars of the heavens.
    See Alice C. Fletcher, Star Cult Among the Pawnee--A Preliminary Report,
    American Anthropologist, 4, 730-736, 1902.
    Ralph N. Buckstaff wrote:
    "These Indians recognized the constellations as we do, also the important stars,
    drawing them according to their magnitude.
    The groups were placed with a great deal of thought and care and show long study.
    ... They were keen observers....
    The Pawnee Indians must have had a knowledge of astronomy comparable to that of the early white men."
    See Ralph N. Buckstaff, Stars and Constellations of a Pawnee Sky Map,
    American Anthropologist, Vol. 29, Nr. 2, April-June 1927, pp. 279-285, 1927.
    In our book, we take these observations one level further
    and show that megalithic sites and petroglyphic rock carving and pictographic rock art in Native America,
    together with mounds and earthworks, were made to represent territorial geographic landmarks
    placed according to the stars of the sky using the ready map of the starry sky
    in the hermetic tradition, "as above, so below".
    That mirror image of the heavens on terrestrial land is the "Sky Earth" of Native America,
    whose "rock stars" are the real stars of the heavens, "immortalized" by rock art petroglyphs, pictographs,
    cave paintings, earthworks and mounds of various kinds (stone, earth, shells) on our Earth.
    These landmarks were placed systematically
    in North America, Central America (Meso-America) and South America
    and can to a large degree be reconstructed as the Sky Earth of Native America."

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