College Football Prediction Results for Week 5 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Prediction Results for Week 5 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our abbreviation "ypp" in our prognostications means
"yards per play" and not "yards per point" as at Phil Steele --- hey, we have his preview magazine -- this is no ad for Phil Steele, just a fact.

Yards per play (YPP) stats are taken from CFBstats.com.
Schedule difficulty (SD) is taken from Massey Ratings, with an eye thrown at the ColleyMatrix.
Kambour HFA "home-field advantage" for the home team is from Kambour.net, that may have updated figures, so check it out if it is important for you.
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We finished Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
41-14 in calling the winner
28-26-1 against the spread, and
30-24-1 against the over/under.

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 5 is:
277-61 in calling the winner
165-164-9 against the spread
163-169-6 against the over/under ("total").

If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution.

Our predictions look to yards per play stats (cfbstats.com) on both offense and defense, schedule difficulty (Massey Ratings), and home field advantage (calculated either via Kambour (Kambour HFA), or as a standard of 3 points, it just depends). This week we again take a look at the College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") which we were unable to access some weeks ago and thus removed from consideration.

Thursday, September 26, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Navy at Memphis
The Tigers were favored over the Midshipmen by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 31-21 for Memphis.
Result: Memphis topped Navy 35-23.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
1-0 in calling the winner
1-0 against the spread, and
0-1 against the over/under.

Friday, September 27, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Blue Devils by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Duke.
Result: Duke routed Virginia Tech 45-10.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
2-0 in calling the winner
2-0 against the spread, and
1-1 against the over/under.

Penn State at Maryland
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Terrapins by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Penn State.
Result: Whoah! Who can foresee this kind of blowout? Penn State put up 619 yards and shut out Maryland 59-0 as Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford completed a road game school record 26 of 31 passes for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns. THIRTEEN different Penn State players caught at least one pass. The Nittany Lions defense held the Terps to 128 yards total offense.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
3-0 in calling the winner
2-1 against the spread, and
1-2 against the over/under.

San Jose State at Air Force
The Falcons were favored over the Spartans by 24 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for Air Force.
Result: Air Force beat the Spartans 41-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
4-0 in calling the winner
3-1 against the spread, and
2-2 against the over/under.

Arizona State atCalifornia
The Golden Bears were favored over the Sun Devils by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 40 points.
Our Call: 24-20 for California.
Result: Arizona State topped Cal 24-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
4-1 in calling the winner
3-2 against the spread, and
3-2 against the over/under.

Saturday, September 28, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Northern Illinois NIU at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Huskies by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Vanderbilt.
Result: Vanderbilt edged Northern Illinois 24-18.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
5-1 in calling the winner
4-2 against the spread, and
4-2 against the over/under.

Buffalo at Miami of Ohio
The Redhawks were favored over the Bulls by 5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Buffalo.
Result: Miami surpassed Buffalo 34-20.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
5-2 in calling the winner
4-3 against the spread, and
5-2 against the over/under.

BYU at Toledo
The Cougars were favored over the Rockets by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Toledo.
Result: Toledo prevailed over BYU 28-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
6-2 in calling the winner
5-3 against the spread, and
5-3 against the over/under.

Central Michigan at Western Michigan
The Broncos were favored over the Chippewas by 18 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for Western Michigan.
Result: Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 31-15.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
7-2 in calling the winner
6-3 against the spread, and
5-4 against the over/under.

Holy Cross (FCS) at Syracuse
The Orange were favored over the Crusaders by 34.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 49-14 for Syracuse.
Result: Syracuse breezed by Holy Cross 41-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
8-2 in calling the winner
7-3 against the spread, and
5-5 against the over/under.

Kansas at TCU
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Jayhawks by 20 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for TCU.
Result: TCU routed the Jayhawks 51-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
9-2 in calling the winner
7-4 against the spread, and
6-5 against the over/under.

Middle Tennessee MTSU at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Blue Raiders by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Iowa.
Result: Iowa routed Middle Tennessee 48-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
10-2 in calling the winner
7-5 against the spread, and
7-5 against the over/under.

Northwestern at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Wildcats by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 35-7 for Wisconsin.
Result: Wisconsin prevailed over Northwestern 24-15.>
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
11-2 in calling the winner
7-6 against the spread, and
8-5 against the over/under.

Rutgers at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 29 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 44-14 for Michigan.
Result: Michigan shut out Rutgers 52-0.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
12-2 in calling the winner
8-6 against the spread, and
9-5 against the over/under.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
The Aggies were favored over the Razorbacks by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M edged Arkansas 31-27.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
13-2 in calling the winner
8-7 against the spread, and
10-5 against the over/under.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Red Raiders by 23 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 70.5 points.
Our Call: 49-24 for Oklahoma.
Result: Oklahoma rolled past Texas Tech 55-16.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
14-2 in calling the winner
9-7 against the spread, and
11-5 against the over/under.

Delaware (FCS) at Pittsburgh PITT
The Panthers were favored over the Blue Hens by 28 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pitt squeaked past FCS Delaware 17-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
15-2 in calling the winner
9-8 against the spread, and
12-5 against the over/under.

Mississippi OLE MISS at Alabama
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Rebels by 32.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 48-17 for Alabama.
Result: Alabama outscored Ole Miss 59-31.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
16-2 in calling the winner
10-8 against the spread, and
13-5 against the over/under.

Virginia at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Cavaliers by 11 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Notre Dame.
Result: Notre Dame topped Virginia 35-20.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
17-2 in calling the winner
10-9 against the spread, and
13-6 against the over/under.

Wake Forest at Boston College
The Demon Deacons were favored over the Eagles by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 71 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for Wake Forest.
Result: Wake Forest edged Boston College 27-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
18-2 in calling the winner
10-9-1 against the spread, and
14-6 against the over/under.

Iowa State at Baylor
The Bears were favored over the Cyclones by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Iowa State.
Result: Baylor edged Iowa State 23-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season< we are thus far:
18-3 in calling the winner
11-9-1 against the spread, and
14-7 against the over/under.

Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State
The Mountaineers were favored over the Chanticleers by 18.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Appalachian State.
Result: Appalachian State outscored Coastal Carolina 56-37.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
19-3 in calling the winner
11-10-1 against the spread, and
15-7 against the over/under.

Minnesota at Purdue
The Golden Gophers were favored over the Boilermakers by 1 point.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Purdue.
Result: Minnesota beat Purdue 38-31.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
19-4 in calling the winner
11-11-1 against the spread, and
16-7 against the over/under.

USC at Washington
The Huskies were favored over the Trojans by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for USC.
Result: Washington topped Southern Cal 28-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
19-5 in calling the winner
11-12-1 against the spread, and
16-8 against the over/under.

Indiana at Michigan State
The Spartans were favored over the Hoosiers by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 46 points.
Our Call: 27-10 for Michigan State.
Result: Michigan State won 40-31.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
20-5 in calling the winner
11-13-1 against the spread, and
16-9 against the over/under.

Florida Atlantic FAU at Charlotte
The 49ers were favored over the Owls by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for FAU.
Result: Florida Atlantic beat Charlotte 45-27.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
21-5 in calling the winner
12-13-1 against the spread, and
17-9 against the over/under.

Clemson at North Carolina
The Tigers were favored over the Tar Heels by 28.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 38-17 for Clemson.
Result: Clemson squeaked past North Carolina 21-20 as a Tar Heel attempt at a 2-point conversion with a little more than 1 minute left to play failed.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
22-5 in calling the winner
13-13-1 against the spread, and
18-9 against the over/under.

Akron at Massachusetts UMASS
The Zips were favored over the Minutemen by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Akron.
Result: UMass prevailed over Akron 37-29.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
22-6 in calling the winner
13-14-1 against the spread, and
18-10 against the over/under.

Georgia Tech at Temple
The Owls were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Georgia Tech
Result: Temple topped Georgia Tech 24-2.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
22-7 in calling the winner
13-15-1 against the spread, and
19-10 against the over/under.

SMU Southern Methodist at USF South Florida
The Mustangs were favored over the Bulls by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for SMU.
Result: SMU beat South Florida 48-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
23-7 in calling the winner
14-15-1 against the spread, and
19-11 against the over/under.

Towson (FCS) at Florida
The Gators were favored over the Tigers by 33 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 34-10 for Florida.
Result: Florida shut out Towson 38-0.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
24-7 in calling the winner
14-16-1 against the spread, and
20-11 against the over/under.

Cincinnati at Marshall
The Bearcats were favored over the Thundering Herd by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 46 points.
Our Call: 24-17 for Cincinnati.
Result: Cincinnati rolled past Marshall 52-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
25-7 in calling the winner
15-16-1 against the spread, and
20-12 against the over/under.

Louisiana Lafayette ULL at Georgia Southern
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Eagles by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for Louisiana.
Result: Louisiana topped Georgia Southern 37-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
26-7 in calling the winner
16-16-1 against the spread, and
20-12-1 against the over/under.

New Mexico at Liberty
The Flames were favored over the Lobos by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 41-30 for Liberty.
Result: Liberty edged New Mexico 17-10.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
27-7 in calling the winner
16-17-1 against the spread, and
20-13-1 against the over/under.

Arkansas State at Troy
The Trojans were favored over the Red Wolves by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-30 for Troy.
Result: Arkansas State outscored Troy 50-43.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
27-8 in calling the winner
16-18-1 against the spread, and
21-13-1 against the over/under.

East Carolina at Old Dominion
The Pirates were favored over the Monarchs by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 24-21 for East Carolina.
Result: Rare, but we predicted the exact final score 24-21 for East Carolina
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
28-8 in calling the winner
17-18-1 against the spread, and
22-13-1 against the over/under.

Kansas State K-STATE at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Wildcats by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Kansas State.
Result: Oklahoma State prevailed over K-State 26-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
28-9 in calling the winner
17-19-1 against the spread, and
23-13-1 against the over/under.

Louisiana Tech at Rice
The Bulldogs were favored over the Owls by 11.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Rice.
Result: Louisiana Tech edged Rice in overtime 23-20.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
28-10 in calling the winner
18-19-1 against the spread, and
24-13-1 against the over/under.

Mississippi State at Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the Bulldogs by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Auburn.
Result: Auburn rolled past Mississippi State 56-23.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
29-10 in calling the winner
19-19-1 against the spread, and
25-13-1 against the over/under.

Nicholls (FCS) at Texas State
The Bobcats were favored over the Colonels by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 40-23 for Texas State.
Result: Texas State beat Nicholls 24-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
30-10 in calling the winner
20-19-1 against the spread, and
25-14-1 against the over/under.

Stanford at Oregon State
The Cardinal were favored over the Beavers by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Stanford.
Result: Stanford squeaked by Oregon State 31-28.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
31-10 in calling the winner
20-20-1 against the spread, and
26-14-1 against the over/under.

UAB Alabama Birmingham at Western Kentucky WKU
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Blazers by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for UAB.
Result: Western Kentucky topped UAB 20-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
31-11 in calling the winner
20-21-1 against the spread, and
26-15-1 against the over/under.

Connecticut UCONN at UCF Central Florida
The Knights were favored over the Huskies by 40 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 53-10 for UCF.
Result: UCF led 42-0 at the half and 56-0 in the 3rd quarter in beating UConn 56-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
32-11 in calling the winner
20-22-1 against the spread, and
27-15-1 against the over/under.

UTEP at Southern Miss
The Eagles were favored over the Miners by 26.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52 points.
Our Call: 41-13 for Southern Miss.
Result: Southern Miss won 31-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
33-11 in calling the winner
20-23-1 against the spread, and
27-16-1 against the over/under.

South Alabama at Louisiana Monroe ULM
The Warhawks were favored over the Jaguars by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for South Alabama.
Result: Louisiana Monroe topped South Alabama 30-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
33-12 in calling the winner
21-23-1 against the spread, and
27-17-1 against the over/under.

Ohio State at Nebraska
The Buckeyes were favored over the Huskers by 15 points (opening line at VegasInsider, at last glance it was 17 points).
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points (VegasInsider) and 67.5 points (Oddsshark).
Our Call: 31-30 for the Cornhuskers, calling it as a Husker alum.
Result: Our unbiased analysis of the stats prognosticated that Ohio State would beat the Huskers by something like 41-17 so that the actual result, 48-7 was no surprise. On offense, the Huskers were 8 of 17 passing for 47 yards with 3 interceptions, while the defense gave up 368 yards rushing and 212 passing for 580 yards total, as the Buckeyes converted 10 of 13 3rd downs, with 7.73 ypp (yards per play) on offense and 4.13 ypp on defense.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
33-13 in calling the winner
21-24-1 against the spread, and
28-17-1 against the over/under.

Colorado State at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Rams by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 72.5 points.
Our Call: 44-31 for Utah State.
Result: Utah State won 34-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
34-13 in calling the winner
22-24-1 against the spread, and
28-18-1 against the over/under.

Kentucky at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored over the Wildcats by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina beat Kentucky 24-7.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
35-13 in calling the winner
23-24-1 against the spread, and
28-19-1 against the over/under.

North Carolina State NC STATE at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Wolfpack by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Florida State.
Result: Florida State topped NC State 31-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
36-13 in calling the winner
24-24-1 against the spread, and
29-19-1 against the over/under.

Houston at North Texas
The Cougars were favored over the Mean Green by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for North Texas.
Result: Houston beat North Texas 46-25.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
37-13 in calling the winner
25-24-1 against the spread, and
29-20-1 against the over/under.

Fresno State at New Mexico State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Aggies by 19 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 45-17 for Fresno State.
Result: Fresno State won 30-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
38-13 in calling the winner
25-25-1 against the spread, and
29-21-1 against the over/under.

UNLV at Wyoming
The Cowboys were favored over the Rebels by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 27-17 for Wyoming.
Result: Wyoming routed UNLV 53-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
39-13 in calling the winner
26-25-1 against the spread, and
29-22-1 against the over/under.

Washington State at Utah
The Utes were favored over the Cougars by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 41-34 for Utah.
Result: Utah prevailed over Washington State 38-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
40-13 in calling the winner
26-26-1 against the spread, and
29-23-1 against the over/under.

Hawaii at Nevada
The Wolf Pack were favored over the Warriors by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for Hawaii.
Result: Hawaii routed Nevada 54-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
41-13 in calling the winner
27-26-1 against the spread, and
30-23-1 against the over/under.

UCLA at Arizona
The Wildcats were favored over the Bruins by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69 points.
Our Call: 42-35 for UCLA.
Result: Arizona edged UCLA 20-17.
We thus finished Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
41-14 in calling the winner
28-26-1 against the spread, and
30-24-1 against the over/under.

College Football Predictions for Week 5 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Predictions for Week 5 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

ESPN GameDay is headed for Lincoln, Nebraska this football weekend for the first time since 2007. Click that link for info. Husker fans will be out in droves to experience the epitome of football pageantry! We wish both teams, the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Ohio State Buckeyes a great game.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our abbreviation "ypp" in our prognostications means
"yards per play" and not "yards per point" as at Phil Steele --- hey, we have his preview magazine -- this is no ad for Phil Steele, just a fact.

Yards per play (YPP) stats are taken from CFBstats.com.
Schedule difficulty (SD) is taken from Massey Ratings, with an eye thrown at the ColleyMatrix.
Kambour HFA "home-field advantage" for the home team is from Kambour.net, that may have updated figures, so check it out if it is important for you.
__________

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 4 is:
236-47 in calling the winner
137-138-8 against the spread
133-145-5 against the over/under ("total"). 

If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution.

Our predictions look to yards per play stats (cfbstats.com) on both offense and defense, schedule difficulty (Massey Ratings), and home field advantage (calculated either via Kambour (Kambour HFA), or as a standard of 3 points, it just depends). This week we again take a look at the College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") which we were unable to access some weeks ago and thus removed from consideration.

Thursday, September 26, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Navy at Memphis
The Tigers were favored over the Midshipmen by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 31-21 for Memphis.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Navy YPP 6.75, 4.19 SD 129th
Memphis YPP 6.71, 3.88 - SD 119th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 6.0436 points
Result: ??.

Friday, September 27, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Blue Devils by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Duke. The Hokies have the better stats, but have played against substantially less difficult opposition.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Duke YPP 5.75, 5.76 SD 27th
Virginia Tech YPP 5.43, 4.79 SD 111th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.2441 points
Result: ??.

Penn State at Maryland
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Terrapins by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Penn State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Penn State YPP 7.47, 4.41 SD 69th
Maryland YPP 6.56, 4.41 SD 78th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.0955 points
Result: ??.

San Jose State at Air Force
The Falcons were favored over the Spartans by 24 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for Air Force. The Spartans beat Arkansas 31-24 last week, so we exercise caution here.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
San Jose State YPP 6.01, 5.27 SD 124th
Air Force YPP 6.48, 4.62 SD 52nd
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 5.0136 points
Result: ??.

Arizona State at California
The Golden Bears were favored over the Sun Devils by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 40 points.
Our Call: 24-20 for California. Cal is the only undefeated team left in the Pac-12 and is ranked #3 nationally in the Colley Matrix, just behind Auburn and Ohio State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Arizona State YPP 5.96, 4.93 SD 65th
California YPP 5.42, 4.87 SD 28th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.6832 points
Result: ??.

Saturday, September 28, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Northern Illinois NIU at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Huskies by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Vanderbilt.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Northern Illinois YPP 5.08, 6.46 SD 38th
Vanderbilt YPP 5.19, 7.82 SD 1st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 2.0018 points
Result: ??.

Buffalo at Miami of Ohio
The Redhawks were favored over the Bulls by 5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Buffalo.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Buffalo YPP 4.83, 5.57 SD 94th -- 66th acc. to ColleyMatrix
Miami of Ohio YPP 4.03, 6.08 SD 29th -- 16th acc. to ColleyMatrix
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 2.0340 points Result: ??.

BYU at Toledo
The Cougars were favored over the Rockets by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Toledo.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty 
BYU YPP 5.52, 5.98 SD 5th
Toledo YPP 7.50, 6.18 SD 98th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.2523 points
Result: ??.

Central Michigan at Western Michigan
The Broncos were favored over the Chippewas by 18 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for Western Michigan.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Central Michigan YPP 5.01, 5.52 SD 103rd
Western Michigan YPP 7.61, 6.03 SD 86th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.3494 points
Result: ??.

Holy Cross (FCS) at Syracuse
The Orange were favored over the Crusaders by 34.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 49-14 for Syracuse.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Holy Cross YPP 4.4, 6.2 SD 134th in NCAA Division I
Syracuse YPP 4.97, 6.62 SD 10th in FBS
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.4511 points
Result: ??.

Kansas at TCU
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Jayhawks by 20 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for TCU. KU lost by five points to West Virginia last week.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Kansas YPP 6.51, 4.88 SD 70th
TCU YPP 5.51, 4.17 SD 71st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.1639 points
Result: ??.

Middle Tennessee MTSU at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Blue Raiders by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Iowa.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Middle Tennessee YPP 6.69, 6.14 SD 66th
Iowa YPP 5.63, 5.08 SD 45th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 0.8293 points
Result: ??.

Northwestern at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Wildcats by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 35-7 for Wisconsin.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Northwestern YPP 4.24, 5.01 SD 23rd
Wisconsin YPP 6.79, 3.17 SD 54th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -0.7818 points
Result: ??.

Rutgers at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 29 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 44-14 for Michigan.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Rutgers YPP 5.76, 5.10 SD 72nd
Michigan YPP 5.08, 4.96 SD 14th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 6.5349 points
Result: ??.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
The Aggies were favored over the Razorbacks by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Texas A&M.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Texas A&M YPP 6.26, 4.47 SD 6th
Arkansas YPP 5.96, 5.82 SD 116th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.6732 points
Result: ??.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Red Raiders by 23 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 70.5 points.
Our Call: 49-24 for Oklahoma.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Texas Tech YPP 6.03, 4.57 SD 100th
Oklahoma YPP 10.46, 5.43 SD 67th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 0.7356 points
Result: ??.

Delaware (FCS) at Pittsburgh PITT
The Panthers were favored over the Blue Hens by 28 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for Pittsburgh.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Delaware YPP 5.6, 6.5 SD 177th
Pittsburgh YPP 5.11, 5.11 SD 4th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 0.2131 points
Result: ??.

Mississippi OLE MISS at Alabama
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Rebels by 32.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 48-17 for Alabama.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Ole Miss YPP 5.56, 5.34 SD 58th
Alabama YPP 8.24, 4.31 SD 36th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 2.7194 points
Result: ??.

Virginia at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Cavaliers by 11 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Notre Dame.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Virginia YPP 5.63, 4.14 SD 82nd
Notre Dame YPP 6.99, 5.19 SD 11th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.3064 points
Result: ??.

Wake Forest at Boston College
The Demon Deacons were favored over the Eagles by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 71 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for Wake Forest.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Wake Forest YPP 6.61, 5.27 SD 76th
Boston College YPP 5.80, 6.02 SD 97th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -1.2449  
Result: ??.

Iowa State at Baylor
The Bears were favored over the Cyclones by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Iowa State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Iowa State YPP 7.71, 4.44 SD 46th
Baylor YPP 7.49, 4.05 SD 128th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 4.3195 points
Result: ??.

Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State
The Mountaineers were favored over the Chanticleers by 18.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Appalachian State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Coastal Carolina YPP 6.13, 4.48 SD 125th
Appalachian State YPP 6.81, 5.93 SD 114th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -1.0319 
Result: ??.

Minnesota at Purdue
The Golden Gophers were favored over the Boilermakers by 1 point.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Purdue. 
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Minnesota YPP 5.00, 5.55 SD 33rd
Purdue YPP 6.16, 5.62 SD 30th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.4230 points
Result: ??.

USC at Washington
The Huskies were favored over the Trojans by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for USC.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
USC YPP 6.51, 5.65 SD 8th
Washington YPP 6.57, 4.90 SD 43rd
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 2.5871 points
Result: ??.

Indiana at Michigan State
The Spartans were favored over the Hoosiers by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 46 points.
Our Call: 27-10 for Michigan State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Indiana YPP 6.04, 4.53 SD 112th
Michigan State YPP 5.61, 3.61 SD 39th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -0.4348 
Result: ??.

Florida Atlantic FAU at Charlotte
The 49ers were favored over the Owls by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for FAU.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
FAU YPP 4.90, 6.18 SD 59th
Charlotte YPP 6.88, 5.90 SD 99th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.4503 points
Result: ??.

Clemson at North Carolina
The Tigers were favored over the Tar Heels by 28.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 38-17 for Clemson.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Clemson YPP 7.44, 3.78 SD 12th
North Carolina YPP 5.85, 5.74 SD 19th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.6582 points
Result: ??.

Akron at Massachusetts UMASS
The Zips were favored over the Minutemen by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Akron.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Akron YPP 4.36, 6.28 SD 83rd
UMass YPP 4.33, 8.19 SD 120th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 2.0415 points
Result: ??.

Georgia Tech at Temple
The Owls were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech this season is led by Geoff Collins, the former head coach at Temple, where the head coach of the Owls is now former Northern Illinois head coach Rod Carey.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Georgia Tech YPP 4.76, 5.95 SD 42nd
Temple YPP 6.08, 3.67 SD 107th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 0.7574 points
Result: ??.

Southern Methodist SMU at South Florida USF
The Mustangs were favored over the Bulls by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for SMU.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
SMU YPP 6.40, 4.90 SD 55th
USF YPP 4.77, 4.73 SD 81st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -1.6188
Result: ??.

Towson (FCS) at Florida
The Gators were favored over the Tigers by 33 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 34-10 for Florida. Towson beat the Citadel, who beat Georgia Tech.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Towson YPP 6.6, 5.6 SD 176th in NCAA Division I
Florida YPP 6.72, 4.62 SD 56th in FBS
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -0.0058 Result: ??.

Cincinnati at Marshall
The Bearcats were favored over the Thundering Herd by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 46 points.
Our Call: 24-17 for Cincinnati.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Cincy YPP 5.29, 4.83 SD 13th
Marshall YPP 6.55, 5.52 SD 91st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.3332 points
Result: ??.

Louisiana Lafayette ULL at Georgia Southern
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Eagles by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for Louisiana.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
ULL YPP 7.64, 5.44 SD 92nd
Georgia Southern YPP 4.93, 5.51 SD 16th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 7.4744 points
Result: ??.

New Mexico at Liberty
The Flames were favored over the Lobos by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 41-30 for Liberty. The Liberty win over Buffalo was an eye-opener for the new Liberty era of Hugh Freeze as head coach, as Buffalo the following week beat a good Temple team that had previously beaten Maryland.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
New Mexico YPP 6.40, 6.80 SD 101st
Liberty YPP 6.16, 6.00 SD 102nd
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 8.8592 points
Result: ??.

Arkansas State at Troy
The Trojans were favored over the Red Wolves by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-30 for Troy.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Arkansas State YPP 5.70, 6.44 SD 48th
Troy YPP 7.00, 5.46 SD 127th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -3.4212 
Result: ??.

East Carolina at Old Dominion
The Pirates were favored over the Monarchs by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 24-21 for East Carolina.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
East Carolina YPP 5.33, 5.42 SD 123rd
Old Dominion YPP 4.30, 5.11 SD 115th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 4.2066 points
Result: ??.

Kansas State K-STATE at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Wildcats by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Kansas State. Former FCS national champion North Dakota State football head coach Chris Klieman is off to a good start with the Wildcats, who raised their record to 3-0 with a 31-24 win over Mississippi State last week. Klieman has inherited legendary Bill Snyder's team, so anything is possible.The Cowboys were edged by Texas 36-30 last week, but have a powerful offense with nation-leading rusher Chuba Hubbard and Big 12 pass reception leader Tylan Wallace.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
K-State YPP 6.49, 4.92 SD 60th
Oklahoma State YPP 6.91, 5.24 SD 41st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -0.5678 
Result: ??.

Louisiana Tech at Rice
The Bulldogs were favored over the Owls by 11.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Rice. By comparative scores, this season Louisiana Tech lost at Texas 45-14 and Rice lost to Texas on a neutral field 48-13. Stanford sorely misses Mike Bloomgren, now in his 2nd year as head coach of Rice, where he is trying to build up an Owls football team that was 1-11 in 2017, 2-11 last year in Bloomgren's first season, and 0-4 this season against top competition, with 3 or more wins possible the rest of the season.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Louisiana Tech YPP 6.11, 5.46 SD 113th
Rice YPP 4.54, 6.69 SD 7th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -0.7059 
Result: ??.

Mississippi State at Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the Bulldogs by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Auburn.The Colley (bias-free) Matrix ranks Auburn #1 thus far this season.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Mississippi State YPP 6.25, 5.63 SD 26th
Auburn YPP 5.67, 4.66 SD 9th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.6509 points
Result: ??.

Nicholls (FCS) at Texas State
The Bobcats were favored over the Colonels by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 40-23 for Texas State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Nicholls YPP 6.1, 7.0 SD 138th in NCAA Division I
Texas State YPP 4.47, 5.97 SD 50th in FBS
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.6509 points 
Result: ??.

Stanford at Oregon State
The Cardinal were favored over the Beavers by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Stanford.
2019 YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Stanford YPP 4.68, 6.29 SD 2nd
Oregon State YPP 6.44, 6.14 SD 74th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 0.7823 points
Hard to believe that the Stanford yards per play stats are worse than those of Oregon State. Of course, Stanford has played a tougher schedule, so that the Cardinal is still favored to win this game. But consider that the Colley Matrix (bias free analysis) currently ranks the Cardinal 107th! On the whole, as a Stanford Law School alumnus, we have been following Stanford football fortunes with concern. Stanford head football coach David Shaw's assessment of the current state of the Stanford football team seems a lot like dreamy wishful thinking. Take a read here. The offense is weak. The yards per play stats of the defense are poor. In four games, with three losses, Stanford's highest point total is 27. Our stats make the Cardinal a favorite for the game against the Beavers, but -- practically thinking -- where are the points going to come from, via the Cardinal's antiquated offense? Here is how the Stanford football team's yards per play stats have developed since 2015 (cfbstats.com).
STANFORD DEFENSE
2015 yards per play defense 5.57 ypp
2016 yards per play defense 5.35 ypp
2017 yards per play defense 5.98 ypp
2018 yards per play defense 5.66 ypp 
2019 yards per play defense 6.29 ypp
The FBS mean average for ypp on defense is currently ca. 5.4 yards per play.
STANFORD OFFENSE
2014 yards per play offense 5.89 ypp
2015 yards per play offense 6.57 ypp
2016 yards per play offense 5.77 ypp
2017 yards per play offense 6.45 ypp
2018 yards per play offense 6.13 ypp 
2019 yards per play offense 4.68 ypp
The FBS mean average for ypp on offense is currently ca. 6.0 yards per play.
That the Stanford schedule is difficult is clear, but consider that three more currently ranked teams have yet to be played. A team with limited offensive firepower and a subpar defense has little chance of winning such games. Stanford may even have to struggle to beat Oregon State, not long ago a Pac-12 also ran. Stanford arguably misses Mike Bloomgren, now in his 2nd year as head coach of Rice, a team that is improving, while Stanford is fading, badly.
Result: ??.

UAB Alabama Birmingham at Western Kentucky WKU
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Blazers by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for UAB.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
UAB YPP 6.12, 4.58 SD 130th
WKU YPP 5.26, 5.59 SD 117th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.0802 points
Result: ??.

Connecticut UCONN at UCF Central Florida
The Knights were favored over the Huskies by 40 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 53-10 for UCF.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
UConn YPP 4.26, 5.34 SD 126th
UCF YPP 7.19, 3.89 SD 51st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.2973 points
Result: ??.

UTEP at Southern Miss
The Eagles were favored over the Miners by 26.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52 points.
Our Call: 41-13 for Southern Miss.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
UTEP YPP 4.90, 5.96 SD 121st
Southern Miss YPP 6.42, 6.68 SD 20th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -1.4250 
Result: ??.

South Alabama at Louisiana Monroe ULM
The Warhawks were favored over the Jaguars by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for South Alabama.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
South Alabama YPP 4.78, 6.05 SD 93rd
ULM YPP 5.95, 7.11 SD 77th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.2307 points
Result: ??.

Ohio State at Nebraska
ESPN GameDay is headed for Lincoln, Nebraska this football weekend for the first time since 2007. Click that link for info. Husker fans will be out in droves to experience the epitome of football pageantry! We wish both teams, the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Ohio State Buckeyes a great game. That is what college athletics is all about.
The Buckeyes were favored over the Huskers by 15 points (opening line at VegasInsider, at last glance it was 17 points).
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points (VegasInsider) and 67.5 points (Oddsshark). 
NOTE: The Cornhuskers nearly lead the nation (they are 2nd) in turnovers with 11 -- so Oddsshark. Theoretically, it can thus only get better for the Huskers. With no Big Red turnovers, the game could be competitive. We hope so.
Our Call: 31-30 for the Cornhuskers. As a Nebraska (and Stanford) alumnus, we are heavily biased.
Here are the main stats:
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Ohio State YPP 7.23, 3.42 SD 49th
Nebraska YPP 6.51, 4.77 SD 80th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.6820
Note for the Huskers that the yards per play stats are thus far greatly improved over 2017 (last year of Frost's predecessor, where NU had 5.59 YPP offense and 6.34 YPP defense) and 2018 (where the Huskers had 6.31 ypp offense, and 5.81 ypp defense, in Frost's first year). By our system, if those stats hold, that would be a theoretical 13-point per game improvement over last season and a 25-point per game improvement over 2017, the team that Frost inherited. That's progress!!! even if the Huskers were to lose big here, and we would in fact otherwise predict a score of 41-17 for Ohio State based on what our stats tell us. However, as a Nebraska undergraduate alumnus, we would have a "hope" prediction of 31-30 for Nebraska, so that no matter who wins here, we win. GBR! which is Huskerspeak for "Go Big Red!!
Here is one example of how we calculate some of our game prognostications -- when we have the time to do so. We can not do this for all games -- it takes too much time. According to cfbstats.com, Ohio State over the first four games of the season has averaged 7.23 yards per play on offense (14th nationally) and 3.42 yards per play on defense (2nd nationally), a net average difference of 3.81 yards per play, which we convert into points by multiplying by 10, or a theoretical advantage of 38.1 points per game over their opponents. This can but must not be close to the actual points scored per game, which score also includes other factors such as field position, special teams and turnovers. Ohio State has averaged 53.5 points per game on offense and 9.0 points per game on defense, or an advantage of 44.5 points per game, surpassing yards per play expectations. By comparison, Nebraska in its first four games has averaged 6.51 yards per play on offense (36th nationally) and 4.77 yards per play on defense (33rd nationally) -- stats substantially better than last season, by the way, especially on defense -- for a net average difference of 1.74 yards per play, multiplied by 10 gives a theoretical advantage of 17.4 points per game over their opponents. In actuality, however, the Huskers have scored 38.0 points per game as opposed to 25.3 for their opponents, or an advantage of 12.7 points per game, thus underperforming the potential of their yards per play stats. In terms of actual scores, the Buckeyes thus far have a 31.8 point advantage (44.5 minus 12.7) over the Cornhuskers' actual scores. In terms of yards per play as we calculate them relative to scoreboard points, however, Ohio State's advantage is only 20.7 points (38.1 minus 17.4). Those numbers in addition must be seen in terms of schedule difficulty. Massey Ratings gives schedule difficulty as a "ranking" within FBS, a schedule difficulty measure which is misleading, as Massey ranks Ohio State with the 49th most difficult schedule in FBS thus far, to only the 80th most difficult schedule for Nebraska. Ordinarily, we would take the difference (80 minus 49 = 31, multiply that times 3 = 93 divided by 10 = 9.3, the number of points we calculate that are needed to adjust the previous figures. But a closer look at Massey Ratings shows that when the actual Massey-ranked position of the opponents is averaged (87, 46, 66, 97 for Ohio State for an average of 74) and (121, 49, 99, 103 for Nebraska for an average of 93), then the compared schedule difficulty is much smaller than the Massey Ratings tell us, i.e. only 19 which we multiply x 3 = 57 divided by 10 or only 5.7 points adjustment, added to 20.7 = 26.4, minus the Husker's home field advantage of ca. 3 points (Kambour calculates only 1.6820 points for the Big Red). Not including any other variables, for this game this would give a prognosticated spread of about 23-24 points in favor of the Buckeyes. As for the over/under, the average Ohio State game score thus far is 53.5 to 9.0 points or 62.5 total points per game. The average Nebraska game score thus far is 38.0 to 25.3 points per game or 63.3 total points per game. The opening line at VegasInsider gave an over/under of 63, which makes sense. As for predicting the Ohio State-Nebraska game here, there is, however, a comparative game warning sign, even if game comparisons can be wanting: highly-regarded Utah beat Northern Illinois 35-17, whereas Nebraska beat the Huskies 44-8, both on the road for NIU, an 18-point difference in margin of victory. If the Huskers were/are capable of playing ca. 18 points better than Utah, i.e. if they managed to play a top game, rather than a standard mediocre one, they would then be in a position to play this game on a near scoring par with the Buckeyes.  In our view, Nebraska has no chance of beating this Ohio State  team if they play "normally" trying to grind out one yard at a time. No way. Their personnel is not as good as the Buckeyes and it will indeed take some years for the Cornhuskers to catch up to that standard. "Normal play" is thus out of the question. The Huskers should be playing to score, not just to gain yardage, which can often result in nothing other than nice stats. You have to play to win ... only ... and not worry about losing, which result is otherwise a foregone conclusion. They must take the route that Stanford -- where we are a graduate Stanford Law School alumnus -- took to beat USC 24-23 as a 41-point underdog in the year 2007. One Stanford player summed it up nicely: "After tonight, we don't care who we play," Stanford linebacker Clinton Snyder said. "We now know the only people who can beat us is us."" You have to believe. That was also the magic of Frost's undefeated 2017 UCF team. "Winning" BECAME the only acceptable option toward the end of that year. So, what about 2019 for the Huskers? Quite apparently still, much is yet "under construction". One must make winning the only acceptable option....
Result: ??.
__________

Colorado State at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Rams by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 72.5 points.
Our Call: 44-31 for Utah State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Colorado State YPP 7.17, 6.86 SD 105th 
Utah State YPP 7.03, 4.65 SD 47th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.2322 points
Result: ??.

Kentucky at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored over the Wildcats by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for South Carolina.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Kentucky YPP 5.86, 6.17 SD 17th
South Carolina YPP 6.32, 5.87 SD 22nd
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 0.0461 points
Result: ??.

North Carolina State NC STATE at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Wolfpack by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Florida State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
NC State YPP 5.63, 4.50 SD 110th
Florida State YPP 6.07, 5.58 SD 37th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 2.7171 points
Result: ??.

Houston at North Texas
The Cougars were favored over the Mean Green by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for North Texas.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Houston YPP 6.03, 7.42 SD 25th
North Texas YPP 6.15, 5.23 SD 79th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 8.6302 points
Result: ??.

Fresno State at New Mexico State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Aggies by 19 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 45-17 for Fresno State.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Fresno State YPP 5.76, 5.08 SD 32nd
New Mexico State YPP 4.95, 7.75 SD 21st
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 3.7702 points
Result: ??.

UNLV at Wyoming
The Cowboys were favored over the Rebels by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 27-17 for Wyoming.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
UNLV YPP 5.73, 5.45 SD 95th
Wyoming YPP 5.30, 5.17 SD 75th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 1.5260 points
Result: ??.

Washington State at Utah
The Utes were favored over the Cougars by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 41-34 for Utah.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Washington State YPP 8.80, 6.17 SD 96th
Utah YPP 6.80, 5.16 SD 44th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team - (minus) -1.2631 
Result: ??.

Hawaii at Nevada
The Wolf Pack were favored over the Warriors by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for Hawaii.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
Hawai'i YPP 6.48, 6.27 SD 57th
Nevada YPP 4.99, 5.76 SD 63rd
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 7.4346 points
Result: ??.

UCLA at Arizona
The Wildcats were favored over the Bruins by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69 points.
Our Call: 42-35 for UCLA.
YPP stats, offense, defense SD schedule difficulty
UCLA YPP 5.42, 7.09 SD 3rd
Arizona YPP 7.68, 6.21 SD 89th
Kambour HFA "home field advantage" for the home team 9.6180 points
Result: ??.