Sunday, November 29, 2009

College Football Game Predictions AND Results (updated when available) for Week 13 of the 2009 Season (Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 28)

College Football Game Predictions AND Results (updated when available) for Week 13 of the 2009 Season (Thanksgiving, November 26, Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 28)

See our current ratings and rankings in the previous post.

Predictions are based primarily on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, November 23, 2009, 10:37 a.m..

The average home field advantage this year according to the Massey Ratings has thus far been 2.66 points, but the actual swing in score from field X to field Y is then twice that amount, i.e. 5.32 points. Moreover Massey covers all football divisions, not just Division I (FBS and FCS), for which Sagarin currently gives a home field advantage of 3.12 relative to a neutral field, or a spread of 6.24 between two home fields, so in some cases we now calculate 6 points for the home field in calculating the spread.


Tuesday November 24, 2009

Ball State (1-10) is the underdog by 10.5 points at Western Michigan (5-6)
Our call: For the Broncos 31-21.
Score: You know you have serious field management issues when your team, in this case Western Michigan, outgains the opponent, in this case Ball State, 463 yards to 226 yards total offense and still loses 22-17. Four interceptions did not help, but that many interceptions tend to be a function of forced playcalling. Ball State scored only one offensive TD, the rest of the points coming on field goals and an 87-yard punt return. The Broncos Tim Hiller passed for over 3000 yards the second straight season. Prediction result: We are 0-1 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.

Thursday November 26, 2009
Happy Thanksgiving!

Texas (11-0) is favored by 21 points at Texas A&M (6-5)
Our call: 40-14 for the Longhorns. Score: The Longhorns were lucky to win 49-39 as the Aggies put up nearly the same number of yards in total offense and were stymied primarily by a 95-yard Texas kickoff return for a TD in the middle of the 4th quarter. We are not sure what this game means in terms of the upcoming Texas game against Nebraska. The Huskers do not have the offensive firepower to slug it out with Texas, so that to beat the Longhorns their defense is going to have to be a whole lot better than what Texas A&M showed defensively. Prediction result: We are 1-1 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.

Friday November 27, 2009

Rutgers (7-3) is the favorite by 5 points at Louisville (4-7)
Our call: 27-20 for the Scarlet Knights
Score: Rutgers beat the Cardinals 34-14 as Sanu and Martinek combined for 223 yards rushing and the defense held Louisville to a mere 50 yards on the ground. Prediction result: We are 2-1 in calling the winner and 2-1 against the spread.

Illinois (3-7) is the underdog by 16.5 points at Cincinnati (10-0)
Our call: 45-7 for the Bearcats
Score: Cincinnati won 49-36 scoring more points against the Illini than any Big 10 team this season, but the Bearcats defense remains shaky. Prediction result: We are 3-1 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the spread.

Northern Illinois (7-4) is the underdog by 10 points at Central Michigan (9-2)
Our call: 34-17 for the Chippewas.
Score: Central Michigan won 45-31 as Dan LeFevour threw for 255 yards and 3 TDs. Prediction result: We are 4-1 in calling the winner and 3-2 against the spread.

Buffalo (4-7) is favored by 1.5 points at Kent State (5-6)
Our call: Kent State 24-23
Score: No touchdown was scored in this game of field goals as Buffalo won 9-6. Prediction result: We are 4-2 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.

Wyoming (5-6) is the underdog by 1 point at Colorado State (3-8)
Our call: 31-21 for the Rams
Score: Wyoming won 17-16 and became bowl eligible as the Rams lost their 9th in a row after winning their first three, even beating Colorado and Nevada. Something strange there. Prediction result: We are 4-3 in calling the winner and 3-4 against the spread.

Toledo (5-6) is the underdog by 8.5 points at Bowling Green (6-5)
Our call: Bowling Green 34-24
Score: The Falcons erupted for 24 1st quarter points and then held on to win 38-24. Prediction result: We are 5-3 in calling the winner and 4-4 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan (0-11) is the underdog by 14.5 points at Akron (2-9)
Our call: Akron 34-7
Score: Akron won 28-21 Prediction result: We are 6-3 in calling the winner and 4-5 against the spread.

Temple (9-2) is favored by 4 points at Ohio (8-3)
Our call: Temple 31-24
Score: Ohio won 35-17 as Theo Scott scored 5 touchdowns. Prediction result: We are 6-4 in calling the winner and 4-6 against the spread.

Alabama (11-0) is favored by 13 points at Auburn (7-4)
Our call: The difference between these two teams is defense. We call it for Alabama 24-17.
Score: Auburn played a great game and led after 3 quarters but suffered poor field management and bad playcalling in the 4th quarter as they played safe and it cost them the game 26-21 for the Crimson Tide. Prediction result: We are 7-4 in calling the winner and 5-6 against the spread.

Nebraska (8-3) is favored by 8 points at Colorado (3-8)
Our call: The Huskers have clinched the Big 12 North Division championship and have to be careful not to take the Buffaloes, who played Oklahoma State nearly even last week, too lightly. We call it 31-3 for the Huskers.
Score: What is the Nebraska 2-minute defense? Do they have such a thing? Are their players prepared? Something is seriously wrong with the way the Huskers play defense in the closing minute of the game as the Buffaloes completed a 56-yard pass for a touchdown with 2 seconds left in the game to still lose 28-20. A similar idiocy cost Nebraska the game against Virginia Tech. When that happens to you once in a season, it might just be bad luck. When it happens twice, the coaching staff should be told to look around for someone to manage the game defensively in the last two minutes who has some understanding of end game strategy and tactics. Otherwise, the defense won the game again as Nebraska's Cornflake offense produced only two touchdowns, with another coming on a 59-yard Niles Paul punt return and the other on a 20-yard Matt O'Hanlon interception for a TD. On offense, Rex Burkhead ran for over 100 yards but otherwise the entire offense stunk to high heaven, as the unherlded Colorado offense put up 422 yards total offense to the Huskers mere 218. Zac Lee completed 9 of 14 passes for a skimpy 72 yards, an average of 5 yards per attempt. If Nebraska plays this badly against the Longhorns, they will be run out of Texas ignominiously. Prediction result: We are 8-4 in calling the winner and 5-6-1 against the spread.

Memphis (2-9) is the underdog by 18 points at Tulsa (4-7)
Our call: 37-14 for the Golden Hurricane
Score: Tulsa dropped Memphis 33-30 in overtime. Prediction result: We are 9-4 in calling the winner and 5-7-1 against the spread.

Pittsburgh (9-1) is seen as even at West Virginia (7-3)
Our call: Pittsburgh 27-24
Score: West Virginia knocked off the top-ten ranked Panthers 19-16 Prediction result: We are 9-5 in calling the winner and 5-8-1 against the spread.

Nevada (8-3) is the underdog by 10.5 points at Boise State (11-0)
Our call: 48-28 for Boise State
Score: Sometimes the line is just uncanny in being set at half-a-point and then the game goes just that way - on one side or the other as Boise State beat the high-powered offense of Nevada by 11 points 44-33. Nevada is no slouch. Luke Lippincott, quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Vaia Taua all have over 1000 yarsd rushing this season, the first team ever in the NCAA to have three players top that mark in one season. Having also beaten Oregon, which will probably win the Pac 10, it is logically impossible to keep Boise State out of BCS games, but then what do you do with TCU? Prediction result: We are 10-5 in calling the winner and 6-8-1 against the spread.

Saturday November 28, 2009

Wake Forest (4-7) is favored by 4 points at Duke (5-6)
Our call: 23-20 for Duke
Score: The Demon Deacons won 45-34. Prediction result: We are 10-6 in calling the winner and 6-9-1 against the spread.

North Carolina (8-3) is favored by 4 points at N.C. State (4-7)
Our call: 23-17 for the Tar Heels
Score: North Carolina lost 28-27 even though they put up 480 yards total offense to only 338 yards for the Wolfpack. Prediction result: We are 10-7 in calling the winner and 6-10-1 against the spread.

Syracuse (4-7) is the underdog by 15 points at Connecticut (5-5)
Our call: 31-17 for UConn
Score: UConn won 56-31 even though the Orange put up 489 yards total offense to only 377 for the Huskies. There are coaching issues at Syracuse. Prediction result: We are 11-7 in calling the winner and 6-11-1 against the spread.

Clemson (8-3) is seen as even at South Carolina (6-5)
Our call: 27-24 for Clemson
Score: The Gamecocks won 34-17. Prediction result: We are 11-8 in calling the winner and 6-12-1 against the spread.

Mississippi (8-3) is favored by 7 points at Mississippi State (4-7)
Our call: 38-13 for Ole Miss
Score: The Bulldogs won 41-27, Prediction result: We are 11-9 in calling the winner and 6-13-1 against the spread.

Oklahoma State (9-2) at Oklahoma (6-5) - no line yet
Our call: 31-24 for the Sooners
Score: Oklahoma won 27-0 holding the Cowboys to 109 yards total offense. Prediction result: We are 12-9 in calling the winner and 6-13-1 against the spread.

New Mexico (1-10) is the underdog by 42 points at TCU (11-0)
Our call: 61-0 for TCU
Score: TCU won 51-10. Prediction result: We are 13-9 in calling the winner and 6-14-1 against the spread.

Southern Miss (7-4) is the underdog by 2.5 points at East Carolina (7-4)
Our call: 27-24 for East Carolina
Score: East Carolina won 25-20. Prediction result: We are 14-9 in calling the winner and 7-14-1 against the spread.

UCF (7-4) is favored by 3 points at UAB (5-6)
Our call: UAB 28-27
Score: UCF won 34-27 Prediction result: We are 14-10 in calling the winner and 7-15-1 against the spread.

North Texas (2-9) is the underdog by 9 points at Arkansas State (2-8)
Our call: 27-24 for Arkansas State
Score: Arkansas State won 30-26 Prediction result: We are 15-10 in calling the winner and 8-15-1 against the spread.

Marshall (6-5) is favored by 3 points at UTEP (3-8)
Our call: 28-27 for UTEP
Score: UTEP won 52-21 Prediction result: We are 16-10 in calling the winner and 9-15-1 against the spread.

Tulane (3-8) is the underdog by 17.5 points at SMU (6-5)
Our call: 41-17 for SMU
Score: SMU won 26-21 Prediction result: We are 17-10 in calling the winner and 9-16-1 against the spread.

Miami of Florida (8-3) is favored by 7 points at South Florida (7-3)
Our call: 30-27 for South Florida
Score: The Hurricanes won 31-10 Prediction result: We are 17-11 in calling the winner and 9-17-1 against the spread.

Virginia Tech (8-3) is favored by 13 points at Virginia (3-8)
Our call: 30-7 for the Hokies
Score: Virginia Tech won 42-13 Prediction result: We are 18-11 in calling the winner and 10-17-1 against the spread.

Arizona (6-4) is favored by 3.5 points at Arizona State (4-7)
Our call: 27-20 for Arizona
Score: Arizona won 20-17 Prediction result: We are 19-11 in calling the winner and 10-18-1 against the spread.

Florida State (6-5) is the underdog by 21 points at Florida (11-0)
Our call: 40-10 for Florida
Score: Florida won 37-10 Prediction result: We are 20-11 in calling the winner and 11-18-1 against the spread.

Boston College (7-4) is favored by 6.5 points at Maryland (2-9)
Our call: 31-13 for Boston College
Score: Boston College won 19-17 Prediction result: We are 21-11 in calling the winner and 11-19-1 against the spread.

Missouri (7-4) is favored by 4.5 points at Kansas (5-6)
Our call: 24-21 for Missouri
Score: Missouri won 41-39 Prediction result: We are 22-11 in calling the winner and 12-19-1 against the spread.

Western Kentucky (0-10) is the underdog by 14.5 points at Florida Atlantic (3-7)
Our call: 34-17 for FIU
Score: The Owls won 29-23 Prediction result: We are 23-11 in calling the winner and 12-20-1 against the spread.

Middle Tennessee State (8-3) is favored by 4 points at Louisiana Monroe (6-5)
Our call: Monroe 27-24
Score: The Blue Raiders won 38-19 Prediction result: We are 23-12 in calling the winner and 12-21-1 against the spread.

Utah (9-2) is the underdog by 7.5 points at BYU (9-2)
Our call: 33-24 for BYU
Score: BYU beat Utah 26-23 in overtime Prediction result: We are 24-12 in calling the winner and 12-22-1 against the spread.

Utah State (3-8) is the underdog by 3 points at Idaho (7-4)
Our call: 34-14 for Idaho
Score: Idaho lost 52-49 Prediction result: We are 24-13 in calling the winner and 12-23-1 against the spread.

Texas Tech (7-4) is favored by 21.5 points vs. Baylor in Arlington Texas in Cowboys Stadium (4-7)
Our call: 35-24 for Texas Tech
Score: Texas Tech won 20-13 Prediction result: We are 25-13 in calling the winner and 13-23-1 against the spread.

Washington State (1-10) is the underdog by 26 points at Washington (3-7)
Our call: Washington 49-17
Score: Washington won 30-0 Prediction result: We are 26-13 in calling the winner and 14-23-1 against the spread.

Tennessee (6-5) is favored by 3 points at Kentucky (7-4)
Our call: Tennessee 31-26
Score: Tennessee won 30-24 in overtime Prediction result: We are 27-13 in calling the winner and 15-23-1 against the spread.

Troy (8-3) is favored by 10 points at Louisiana Lafayette (6-5)
Our call: Troy 31-20
Score: Troy won 48-31 Prediction result: We are 28-13 in calling the winner and 16-23-1 against the spread.

Arkansas (7-4) is the underdog by 6 points at LSU (8-3)
Our call: 31-28 for LSU
Score: LSU won 33-30 in overtime Prediction result: We are 29-13 in calling the winner and 17-23-1 against the spread.

Georgia (6-5) is the underdog by 9.5 points at Georgia Tech (10-1)
Our call: 27-24 for Georgia
Score: The Bulldogs won 30-24. Prediction result: We are 30-13 in calling the winner and 18-23-1 against the spread.

New Mexico State (3-8) is the underdog by 13 points at San Jose State (1-9)
Our call: San Jose State 38-28
Score: San Jose State won 13-10 Prediction result: We are 31-13 in calling the winner and 19-23-1 against the spread.

Notre Dame (6-5) is the underdog by 10 points at Stanford (7-4)
Our call: Stanford 51-36
Score: Stanford won 45-38 as Toby Gerhart ran for 205 yards and 3 TDs and threw for another. Prediction result: We are 32-13 in calling the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.

Rice (2-9) is the underdog by 24 points at Houston (9-2)
Our call: 56-10 for Houston
Score: Houston won 73-14 after leading 59-0 at the half Prediction result: We are 33-13 in calling the winner and 20-24-1 against the spread.

San Diego State (4-7) is the underdog by 3 points at UNLV (4-7)
Our call: 30-24 for San Diego State
Score: UNLV won 28-24 Prediction result: We are 33-14 in calling the winner and 20-25-1 against the spread.

UCLA (6-5) is the underdog by 13 points at USC (7-3)
Our call: USC 38-13
Score: USC won 28-7 Prediction result: We are 34-14 in calling the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Navy (8-3) is favored by 9.5 points at Hawaii (5-6)
Our call: Hawaii 34-28
Score: Hawaii won 24-17 Prediction result: We are 35-14 in calling the winner and 22-25-1 against the spread.

For the season, after thirteen weeks, we are 509-199 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 301-326-9 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM IMPROVEMENT from the 2008 to the 2009 football season as based on NAYPPA calculations

Which NCAA Division I-A FBS college football coaching staffs have done a great job this year and which have not? Which head coaches, or offensive and defensive coordinators are rightly on the hot seat and who has done a good job even if it is not reflected in the won-loss record?

The won-loss record of a team does not always reflect whether a team is improving or declining and it sometimes takes a couple of years for improvement to become visible in the won-loss column. You could, for example, lose all 10 games by an average of 21 points one year but lose 10 games by only 7 points on average the next year, so the improvement would be tremendous at 2 TDs per game. Temple is a good example of that phenomenon this year, as clear improvements in previous years finally came to bear on the won-loss record. Better than the won-loss record in assessing a team's performance are in fact the yards per play statistics, which give an immediate year-to-year insight into a teams improvement or decline, and show where a team is improving or declining in terms of offense and defense.

The average yards per play component in NCAA Division I-A FBS college football has been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of it - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.

NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM IMPROVEMENT
from the 2008 to the 2009 football season
as based on NAYPPA (net yards per play advantage)
through November 21, 2009, after Week 12 of regular season games.

Average yards per play stats are based on figures published at cfbstats.com. Teams with a plus net 2009 change (greater than 0.0) have improved in NAYPPA while teams with a negative net 2009 change (less than 0.0) have gotten worse in NAYPPA (net yards per play advantage, i.e. net yards gained per play on offense - minus - net yards allowed per play on defense = NAYPPA.

TEAM
NAYPPA
Improvement
Rank
After 12th Week
NET
2009
CHANGE

YPP OFF
2009

YPP DEF
2009

YPP OFF
2008

YPP DEF
2008

YPPSYS
Overall
Rating
1
North Texas +2.4

6.0

5.8

4.9

7.1

-2.9
2
Idaho +2.2

6.9

6.3

4.8

6.6

-1.3
3
Louisiana-Monroe +2.1

5.9

5.1

5.2

6.5

-1.5
4
Cincinnati +1.8

7.4

4.7

5.6

4.7

2.2
4
Virginia Tech +1.8

6.0

4.6

4.5

4.9

0.8
6
Pittsburgh +1.5

6.6

4.9

5.1

4.9

1.0
6
Washington +1.5

5.5

6.6

4.0

6.6

-2.7
8
Auburn +1.4

6.2

5.2

4.5

4.9

-0.1
8
Central Michigan +1.4

6.0

5.0

5.7

6.1

-0.5
8
Michigan State +1.4

6.3

5.3

4.9

5.3

-0.9
8
UCF +1.4

5.2

4.9

3.6

4.7

-1.3
12
San Diego State +1.3

5.2

5.3

4.8

6.2

-2.5
12
SMU +1.3

5.8

5.6

5.4

6.5

-1.7
12
UAB +1.3

6.7

6.4

5.6

6.6

-1.9
15
Alabama +1.2

6.2

3.8

5.5

4.3

2.4
15
Buffalo +1.2

6.0

5.3

5.4

5.9

-1.8
15
Middle Tennessee +1.2

5.7

4.8

5.1

5.4

-1.2
18
Arkansas +1.1

7.0

6.0

5.5

5.6

-0.1
19
Hawai'i +1.0

6.8

5.9

5.4

5.5

-1.5
19
Temple +1.0

5.4

4.8

4.8

5.2

-0.9
19
Texas +1.0

5.8

3.6

6.5

5.3

1.9
19
Texas A&M +1.0

5.7

5.8

5.3

6.4

-1.7
23
Michigan +0.9

5.6

5.6

4.4

5.3

-2.3
23
N.C. State +0.9

5.7

5.4

5.1

5.7

-1.7
23
Stanford +0.9

6.6

5.9

5.4

5.6

-0.4
23
UCLA +0.9

5.2

5.2

4.2

5.1

-1.4
27
Nevada +0.8

7.6

6.2

6.5

5.9

-0.4
27
Syracuse +0.8

5.0

5.4

4.7

5.9

-2.4
29
Duke +0.7

5.1

5.4

4.4

5.4

-2.0
29
Miami (Florida) +0.7

6.0

5.1

5.1

4.9

0.1
29
Mississippi State +0.7

5.4

5.6

4.2

5.1

-1.7
29
Nebraska +0.7

5.5

4.1

6.4

5.7

0.4
33
Iowa State +0.6

5.2

5.8

5.5

6.7

-2.5
33
Toledo +0.6

6.2

5.8

5.3

5.5

-2.0
35
Army +0.5

4.5

5.1

4.5

5.6

-3.1
35
Clemson +0.5

5.6

4.4

5.2

4.5

0.4
35
Miami (Ohio) +0.5

4.7

5.8

4.7

6.3

-4.1
35
South Carolina +0.5

5.4

4.9

4.7

4.7

-0.6
35
Tennessee +0.5

5.7

4.8

4.5

4.1

-0.4
35
UTEP +0.5

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.6

-2.9
41
BYU +0.4

6.6

5.1

6.3

5.2

0.4
41
Kentucky +0.4

5.1

5.4

4.5

5.2

-1.6
41
Ohio State +0.4

5.5

4.1

5.5

4.5

0.4
41
Purdue +0.4

5.6

5.4

5.0

5.2

-1.9
41
Southern Miss +0.4

6.0

5.3

5.7

5.4

-1.2
46
Minnesota +0.3

4.7

5.2

4.9

5.7

-2.2
46
Colorado State +0.3

5.7

5.8

5.8

6.2

-2.5
46
Utah State +0.3

5.9

6.3

5.1

5.8

-2.9
46
Vanderbilt +0.3

4.6

5.2

4.2

4.9

-3.0
50
Air Force +0.2

4.8

4.7

5.0

5.1

-1.7
50
California +0.2

6.1

5.4

5.9

4.4

-0.3
50
Indiana +0.2

5.4

5.8

5.2

5.8

-2.9
50
Kansas State +0.2

5.2

5.4

5.8

6.2

-2.1
54
Arizona State +0.1

5.0

4.8

4.9

4.8

-1.7
54
Boston College +0.1

5.1

4.6

4.6

4.2

-0.6
54
Florida+0.1

6.6

3.9

7.1

4.5

2.5
54
Fresno State +0.1

6.4

6.5

5.9

6.1

-1.9
54
Kent State +0.1

5.1

5.1

5.8

5.9

-2.4
54
Louisiana Tech +0.1

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.4

-2.4
54
Marshall +0.1

5.2

5.6

5.1

5.4

-2.2
54
Northern Illinois +0.1

5.7

5.2

5.4

5.0

-1.7
54
Texas Tech +0.1

6.3

4.7

7.1

5.6

0.5
63
Arizona 0.0

5.9

5.2

5.7

5.0

-0.4
63
Kansas 0.0

5.6

5.3

5.9

5.6

-1.4
63
North Carolina 0.0

4.5

4.1

5.4

5.0

-0.4
63
Notre Dame 0.0

6.3

6.1

5.2

5.0

-1.4
63
LSU 0.0

5.1

4.7

5.4

5.0

-0.3
63
South Florida 0.0

6.0

4.9

5.7

4.6

-0.2
63
TCU 0.0

6.6

4.0

5.4

3.8

2.2
63
Wake Forest 0.0

5.6

5.7

4.5

4.6

-1.7
71
Louisville -0.1

5.1

5.8

5.3

5.9

-2.7
71
Oregon -0.1

6.0

4.4

6.6

4.9

1.1
71
Oregon State -0.1

5.9

5.3

5.7

5.0

-0.4
71
West Virginia -0.1

6.0

5.1

5.7

4.7

-0.2
75
Colorado -0.2

4.3

5.5

4.5

5.5

-3.4
75
East Carolina -0.2

5.3

5.3

5.1

4.9

-1.5
75
Mississippi -0.2

6.0

4.7

6.2

4.7

0.4
75
Penn State -0.2

6.3

4.4

6.5

4.4

0.7
75
Tulane -0.2

4.8

6.3

5.0

6.3

-4.2
80
Boise State -0.3

6.7

4.8

6.5

4.3

1.1
80
Navy -0.3

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.6

-1.5
80
Oklahoma -0.3

5.6

4.2

6.9

5.2

0.2
80
Utah -0.3

5.9

4.7

5.7

4.6

0.1
80
Washington State -0.3

4.2

7.1

3.9

6.5

-5.6
80
Wisconsin -0.3

5.7

5.2

5.8

5.0

-0.9
86
Troy -0.4

6.4

5.8

5.5

4.5

-1.1
86
Virginia -0.4

4.1

4.8

4.6

4.9

-2.4
88
Georgia Tech -0.5

6.5

5.8

6.0

4.8

0.5
88
Northwestern -0.5

5.0

5.4

4.9

4.8

-2.2
88
Ohio -0.5

5.0

5.0

5.6

5.1

-1.8
88
Oklahoma State -0.5

5.7

4.8

7.0

5.6

0.1
88
UNLV -0.5

5.2

6.7

5.2

6.2

-3.8
93
Baylor -0.6

5.4

5.4

5.9

5.3

-1.7
93
Connecticut -0.6

5.7

5.7

5.2

4.6

-1.4
93
Iowa -0.6

5.1

4.3

5.8

4.4

-0.1
93
Rutgers -0.6

5.2

5.0

6.2

5.4

-1.4
97
Missouri -0.7

5.7

4.8

6.9

5.3

-0.3
98
Akron -0.8

4.8

5.4

5.7

5.5

-3.5
98
Bowling Green -0.8

5.3

5.9

5.3

5.1

-2.6
98
Florida State -0.8

6.5

6.6

5.5

4.8

-1.4
98
Houston -0.8

6.9

6.1

7.2

5.6

-0.7
98
New Mexico -0.8

4.8

5.7

4.9

5.0

-3.9
103
Georgia -0.9

5.9

5.1

6.7

5.0

-0.4
103
Maryland -0.9

4.7

5.9

5.5

5.2

-3.3
103
Wyoming -0.9

4.4

5.6

4.6

4.9

-3.1
106
Memphis -1.0

5.3

6.6

5.6

5.9

-4.1
107
Arkansas State -1.1

5.1

5.4

6.0

5.2

-3.1
108
Eastern Michigan -1.3

4.5

6.9

5.5

6.6

-5.8
108
Western Kentucky -1.3

5.1

7.2

4.6

5.4

-5.5
108
Western Michigan -1.3

5.3

6.1

6-0

5.5

-3.3
111
Illinois -1.4

5.4

5.8

6.2

5.2

-2.5
111
Louisiana-Lafayette -1.4

4.8

5.8

6.6

6.2

-3.0
111
Tulsa -1.4

5.8

5.6

7.3

5.7

-2.2
114
USC -1.5

6.4

4.9

6.6

3.6

0.7
115
Florida Atlantic -1.6

5.9

7.2

5.9

5.6

-4.0
116
Florida Int. FIU
-1.9

4.4

6.6

4.9

5.0

-5.0
117
San Jose State -2.0

4.6

6.8

4.4

4.8

-4.9
118
Ball State -2.1

4.8

5.6

6.7

5.4

-4.0
119
Rice -2.2

4.2

6.4

6.3

6.3

-5.1
119
New Mexico State -2.2

3.9

6.4

5.3

5.6

-5.4

Monday, November 23, 2009

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) through November 21, 2009, after Week 12 games

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through November 21, 2009, after Week 12 of regular season games.

Rank
After 12th Week
NAYPPA

YPP OFF

YPP DEF

Schedule

W-L

Rating
1Florida2.7

6.6

3.9

27

11-0

2.5
2
Alabama 2.4

6.2

3.8

13

11-0

2.4
3
TCU 2.6

6.6

4.0

47

11-0

2.2
4
Cincinnati 2.7

7.4

4.7

53

10-0

2.2
5
Texas 2.2

5.8

3.6

36

11-0

1.9
6
Boise State 1.9

6.7

4.8

84

11-0

1.1
7
Oregon 1.6

6.0

4.4

8

9-2

1.1
8
Pittsburgh 1.7

6.6

4.9

54

9-1

1.0
9
Virginia Tech 1.4

6.0

4.6

1

8-3

0.8
10
USC 1.5

6.4

4.9

15

7-3

0.7
11
Penn State 1.9

6.3

4.4

75

10-2

0.7
12
Georgia Tech 0.7

6.5

5.8

3

10-1

0.5
13
Texas Tech 1.6

6.3

4.7

32

7-4

0.5
14
Clemson 1.2

5.6

4.4

16

8-3

0.4
15
Mississippi 1.3

6.0

4.7

31

8-3

0.4
16
Nebraska 1.4

5.5

4.1

43

8-3

0.4
17
Ohio State 1.4

5.5

4.1

59

10-2

0.4
18
BYU 1.5

6.6

5.1

71

9-2

0.4
19
Oklahoma 1.4

5.6

4.2

17

6-5

0.2
20
Miami (Florida) 0.9

6.0

5.1

6

8-3

0.1
21
Oklahoma State 0.9

5.7

4.8

42

9-2

0.1
22
Utah 1.2

5.9

4.7

73

9-2

0.1
23
Arkansas 1.0

7.0

6.0

11

7-4

-0.1
24
Auburn 1.0

6.2

5.2

19

7-4

-0.1
25
Iowa 0.8

5.1

4.3

51

10-2

-0.1
26
South Florida 1.1

6.0

4.9

66

7-3

-0.2
27
West Virginia 0.9

6.0

5.1

41

7-3

-0.2
28
LSU 0.4

5.1

4.7

12

8-3

-0.3
29
California 0.7

6.1

5.4

25

8-3

-0.3
30
Missouri 0.9

5.7

4.8

38

7-4

-0.3
31
Georgia 0.8

5.9

5.1

9

6-5

-0.4
32
North Carolina 0.4

4.5

4.1

18

8-3

-0.4
33
Arizona 0.7

5.9

5.2

20

6-4

-0.4
34
Tennessee 0.9

5.7

4.8

26

6-5

-0.4
35
Oregon State 0.6

5.9

5.3

34

8-3

-0.4
36
Stanford 0.7

6.6

5.9

22

7-4

-0.4
37
Nevada 1.4

7.6

6.2

96

8-3

-0.4
38
Central Michigan 1.0

6.0

5.0

104

9-2

-0.5
39
South Carolina 0.5

5.4

4.9

10

6-5

-0.6
40
Boston College 0.5

5.1

4.6

30

7-4

-0.6
41
Houston 0.8

6.9

6.1

86

9-2

-0.7
42
Wisconsin 0.5

5.7

5.2

68

8-3

-0.9
43
Michigan State 1.0

6.3

5.3

56

6-6

-0.9
44
Temple 0.6

5.4

4.8

110

9-2

-0.9
45
Troy 0.6

6.4

5.8

101

8-3

-1.1
46
Southern Miss 0.7

6.0

5.3

99

7-4

-1.2
47
Middle Tennessee 0.9

5.7

4.8

115

8-3

-1.2
48
UCF 0.3

5.2

4.9

81

7-4

-1.3
49
Idaho 0.6

6.9

6.3

92

7-4

-1.3
50
Florida State -0.1

6.5

6.6

7

6-5

-1.4
51
UCLA 0.0

5.2

5.2

23

6-5

-1.4
52
Kansas 0.3

5.6

5.3

37

5-6

-1.4
53
Rutgers 0.2

5.2

5.0

89

7-3

-1.4
54
Connecticut 0.0

5.7

5.7

28

5-5

-1.4
55
Notre Dame 0.2

6.3

6.1

40

6-5

-1.4
56
Navy -0.2

5.3

5.5

61

8-3

-1.5
57
East Carolina 0.0

5.3

5.3

62

7-4

-1.5
58
Hawai'i 0.9

6.8

5.9

105

5-6

-1.5
59
Louisiana-Monroe 0.8

5.9

5.1

116

6-5

-1.5
60
Kentucky -0.3

5.1

5.4

39

7-4

-1.6
61
Mississippi State -0.2

5.4

5.6

4

4-7

-1.7
62
Baylor 0.0

5.4

5.4

24

4-7

-1.7
63
Wake Forest -0.1

5.6

5.7

14

4-7

-1.7
64
Arizona State 0.2

5.0

4.8

46

4-7

-1.7
65
Texas A&M -0.1

5.7

5.8

50

6-5

-1.7
66
N.C. State 0.3

5.7

5.4

52

4-7

-1.7
67
Air Force 0.1

4.8

4.7

78

7-5

-1.7
68
SMU 0.2

5.8

5.6

83

6-5

-1.7
69
Northern Illinois 0.5

5.7

5.2

125

7-4

-1.7
70
Ohio 0.0

5.0

5.0

108

8-3

-1.8
71
Buffalo 0.7

6.0

5.3

98

4-7

-1.8
72
Purdue 0.2

5.6

5.4

55

5-7

-1.9
73
Fresno State -0.1

6.4

6.5

77

7-4

-1.9
74
UAB 0.3

6.7

6.4

82

5-6

-1.9
75
Duke -0.3

5.1

5.4

44

5-6

-2.0
76
Toledo 0.4

6.2

5.8

106

5-6

-2.0
77
Kansas State -0.2

5.2

5.4

57

6-6

-2.1
78
Minnesota -0.5

4.7

5.2

35

6-6

-2.2
79
Marshall -0.4

5.2

5.6

72

6-5

-2.2
80
Northwestern -0.4

5.0

5.4

90

8-4

-2.2
81
Tulsa 0.2

5.8

5.6

93

4-7

-2.2
82
Michigan 0.0

5.6

5.6

79

5-7

-2.3
83
Virginia -0.7

4.1

4.8

5

3-8

-2.4
84
Syracuse -0.4

5.0

5.4

49

4-7

-2.4
85
Louisiana Tech -0.1

5.3

5.4

63

3-8

-2.4
86
Kent State 0.0

5.1

5.1

113

5-6

-2.4
87
Illinois -0.4

5.4

5.8

60

3-7

-2.5
88
Iowa State -0.6

5.2

5.8

64

6-6

-2.5
89
Colorado State -0.1

5.7

5.8

67

3-8

-2.5
90
San Diego State -0.1

5.2

5.3

88

4-7

-2.5
91
Bowling Green -0.6

5.3

5.9

85

6-5

-2.6
92
Washington -1.1

5.5

6.6

2

3-7

-2.7
93
Louisville -0.7

5.1

5.8

48

4-7

-2.7
94
Indiana -0.4

5.4

5.8

76

4-8

-2.9
95
Utah State -0.4

5.9

6.3

74

3-8

-2.9
96
UTEP -0.1

6.0

6.1

103

3-8

-2.9
97
North Texas 0.2

6.0

5.8

119

2-9

-2.9
98
Vanderbilt -0.6

4.6

5.2

33

2-10

-3.0
99
Louisiana-Lafayette -1.0

4.8

5.8

118

6-5

-3.0
100
Wyoming -1.2

4.4

5.6

58

5-6

-3.1
101
Arkansas State -0.3

5.1

5.4

114

2-8

-3.1
102
Army -0.6

4.5

5.1

120

5-6

-3.1
103
Maryland -1.2

4.7

5.9

21

2-9

-3.3
104
Western Michigan -0.8

5.3

6.1

111

5-6

-3.3
105
Colorado -1.2

4.3

5.5

45

3-8

-3.4
106
Akron -0.6

4.8

5.4

95

2-9

-3.5
107
UNLV -1.5

5.2

6.7

69

4-7

-3.8
108
New Mexico -0.9

4.8

5.7

91

1-10

-3.9
109
Florida Atlantic -1.3

5.9

7.2

97

3-7

-4.0
110
Ball State -0.8

4.8

5.6

112

1-10

-4.0
111
Miami (Ohio) -1.1

4.7

5.8

70

1-11

-4.1
112
Memphis -1.3

5.3

6.6

80

2-9

-4.1
113
Tulane -1.5

4.8

6.3

94

3-8

-4.2
114
San Jose State -2.2

4.6

6.8

65

1-9

-4.9
115
Florida Int. FIU
-2.2

4.4

6.6

100

3-8

-5.0
116
Rice -2.2

4.2

6.4

87

2-9

-5.1
117
New Mexico State -2.5

3.9

6.4

107

3-8

-5.4
118
Western Kentucky -2.1

5.1

7.2

109

0-10

-5.5
119
Washington State -2.9

4.2

7.1

29

1-10

-5.6
120
Eastern Michigan -2.4

4.5

6.9

102

0-11

-5.8


NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season
according to the Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. A penalty of .1 is subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard. NEW: Any team with a defense of 4.0 or better gets an added .1 rating point.

The average yards per play component in NCAA Division I-A FBS college football has been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of it - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.

If two teams have the same rating and have played each other in the season, then the team which won the game is rated ahead of the other team.

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