Tuesday, December 29, 2009

BCS Championship Game : Alabama vs. Texas : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 7, 2010, Thursday

34. BCS Championship Game, Pasadena, CA, Alabama vs. Texas, 8:00 pm

Alabama was favored in the opening line by 4 points and that has dropped at the time of this posting to 3.5 points.

YPPSYS I ranks Alabama 2nd with a ranking of 2.0 and Texas 5th with a ranking 1.7, a difference of 0.3 x 9 = 2.7 points. Our assessment of margin of victory as adjusted by schedule difficulty (YPPSYS II) ranks the Texas Longhorns 1st in the nation with 24.6 points as opposed to Alabama's 20.6 (3rd in the nation), i.e. a difference of 4 points in favor of Texas.

Texas has the stronger defense and there is a greater likelihood that the Longhorns can get their offense to kick into gear in this game due to their quarterback, Colt McCoy, the nation's most accurate passer. The Crimson Tide does not have a defense quite as strong as that of Nebraska.

Our call: We call the game in favor of Texas, 27-24.

GMAC Bowl : Troy vs. Central Michigan : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 6, 2010, Wednesday

33. GMAC Bowl, Mobile, Alabama, Troy vs. Central Michigan, 7:00 pm

Central Michigan was favored in the opening line by 4.5 points and that has dropped at the time of this posting to 3 points. YPPSYS ranks the Chippewas 36th with a rating of -0.6 and Troy 45th with a rating of -1.1, a difference of 0.5 x 9 = 4.5 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory makes the difference larger than that.

Our call: We call it for Central Michigan 31-20.

Orange Bowl : Iowa vs. Georgia Tech : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 5, 2010, Tuesday

32. Orange Bowl, Miami FL, Iowa vs. Georgia Tech, 8:00 pm

Georgia Tech is favored by 3.5 points. YPPSYS I ranks Iowa 22nd with a rating of -0.1 and the Yellow Jackets 31st with a rating of -0.5, a difference of 0.4 x 9 = 3.6 points. YPPSYS II gives the Hawkeyes a schedule-adjusted margin of victory of 4.0 points as compared to 9.6 points for Georgia Tech, a difference of 5.6 points.

Georgia Tech allowed 6.1 yards per play this past season on defense, which puts it 100th in the nation. Iowa on the other hand ranked in the nation's top 10 in total defense, so that if the Hawkeyes can get their offense to jell, they can win this game. Since injured starting QB Ricky Stanzi is again apparently healthy enough to play, Iowa's chances of winning are very good.

Our call: We call it 31-28 for Iowa.

Fiesta Bowl : Boise State vs. TCU : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 4, 2010, Monday

31. Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ, Boise State vs. TCU, 8:00 p.m.

To the disgrace of the BCS, this game is a battle between two unbeaten teams who should be playing BCS Big 6 conference teams. As it is, the game is now merely a rematch between last season's Poinsettia Bowl opponents, a game which TCU won 17-16.

TCU was favored in the opening line by 4 points and that has risen at the time of this posting to 7 points. YPPSYS I ranks the Horned Frogs 1st in the nation with a rating of 2.2 and Boise State 6th with a rating of 1.0, a difference of 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 points. YPPSYS II gives TCU a schedule-adjusted margin of victory of 22.0 points (second to MOV top-rated Texas at 24.6) as compared to Boise State at 19.3, a difference of 2.7 points.

Our call: We call the game for TCU 27-24.

Alamo Bowl : Michigan State vs. Texas Tech : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 2, 2010, Saturday

30. Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Texas, Michigan State vs. Texas Tech, 9:00 pm

The "Battle at the Alamo" this year has started much earlier than normally. Can we call this the "Suspension Bowl"?

Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio recently suspended numerous players, including 3 starters, for a brawl which has thus far resulted in 9 misdemeanor charges by authorities against Spartan football players and some player dismissals.

As if that were not enough, there are now strange doings in Lubbock, Texas, as well, as the university has suspended its head football coach, Mike Leach. As reported for the AP by Betsy Blaney at Rivals.com:
"Texas Tech coach Mike Leach was suspended Monday while the school investigates complaints from a player and his family about treatment after an injury.

The school said in a release that defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill will be the interim coach and lead the team in the Alamo Bowl on Jan. 2 against Michigan State."

Texas Tech was favored in the opening line by 8.5 points and that has dropped at the time of this posting to 7.5 points. YPPSYS ranks the Red Raiders 14th with a rating of 0.2 and Michigan State 44th with a rating of -0.9, a difference of 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 points.

Our call: We call the game for Texas Tech, 38-28.

Liberty Bowl : East Carolina vs. Arkansas : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 2, 2010, Saturday

29. Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN, East Carolina vs. Arkansas, 5:30 pm

Arkansas was favored in the opening line by 10 points and that has dropped at the time of this posting to 7 points. YPPSYS ranks the Razorbacks 25th with a rating of -0.2 and East Carolina 48th with a rating of -1.5, a difference of 1.3 x 9 = 11.7 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory for Arkansas is 10.3 as compared to 3.0 for the Pirates, an advantage of 7.3 points.

Our call: We call it 41-31 for Arkansas.

Cotton Bowl : Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 2, 2010, Saturday

28. Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas, Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss, 2:00 pm

Mississippi was favored in the opening line by 2.5 points and that has risen at the time of this posting to 3 points. YPPSYS ranks the Cowboys 27th with a rating of -0.3 and Ole Miss 13th with a rating of 0.3, a difference of 0.6 x 9 = 5.4 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory for the Rebels is 7.2 points and for Oklahoma State 4.8 points, a difference of 2.4 points.
Our call: We call if 27-23 for Ole Miss.

PapaJohns.com Bowl : Connecticut vs. South Carolina : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 2, 2010, Saturday

27. PapaJohns.com Bowl, Birmingham, Alabama, Connecticut vs. South Carolina, 2:00 pm

South Carolina was favored in the opening line by 3 points and that has risen at the time of this posting to 3.5 points. YPPSYS ranks the Gamecocks 37th with a rating of -0.6 and Connecticut at 50th with a rating of -1.6 or a difference of 1.0 x 9 = 9 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory comparison leads to a lower figure.

Our call: We call it 24-17 for South Carolina.

International Bowl : South Florida vs. Northern Illinois : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

January 2, 2010, Saturday

26. International Bowl, Toronto, Canada, South Florida vs. Northern Illinois, 12:00 pm

South Florida was favored in the opening line by 4.5 points and that has risen at the time of this posting to 7 points. YPPSYS ranks the Bulls 43rd with a rating of -0.9 and the Huskies 68th with a rating of -1.9, a difference of 1.0 x 9 = 9 points.

The Huskies beat Purdue who beat Ohio State - sometimes football is a crazy game, so you sometimes just never know how a game is going to turn out, but a Northern Illinois win here seems unlikely.

Our call: We call it 30-21 for South Florida.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Sugar Bowl : Florida vs. Cincinnati : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

January 1, 2010, Friday (New Year's Day)

25. Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, Florida vs. Cincinnati, 8:30 pm

Florida is favored by 10.5 points. YPPSYS I ranks Florida 3rd with a rating of 2.3 and Cincinnati 4th with a rating of 2.0, an advantage of 0.3 x 9 = 2.7 points. YPPSYS II by margin of victory (as adjusted for schedule difficulty) rates Florida at 20.5 and Cincinnati at 13.3, an advantage of 7.2 points. Our call: we split the difference and call it for the Gators 31-26.

Rose Bowl : Ohio State vs. Oregon : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

January 1, 2010, Friday (New Year's Day)

24. Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California, Ohio State vs. Oregon, 4:30 pm

The opening line favored Oregon by 2 points and that spread has risen to 3.5 points at the time of this posting. YPPSYS ranks Oregon 7th with a rating of 1.0 and Ohio State 12th with a rating of 0.4, a difference of 0.6 x 9 = 5.4 points. YPPSYS II puts the schedule-adjusted margin of victory of the Ducks at 14.1 points and of the Buckeyes at 13.2 points, a difference of 0.9 points. Our call: We split the difference and call it for Oregon 30-27.

Gator Bowl : Florida State vs. West Virginia : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

January 1, 2010, Friday (New Year's Day)

23. Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, FL, Florida State vs. West Virginia, 1:00 pm

Incredibly, the opening line favored Florida State by 1 point but that spread has changed to 3 points in favor of West Virginia. YPPSYS ranks the Seminoles 63rd with a rating of-1.9 and West Virginia 30th with a rating of -0.4, a difference of 1.5 x 9 = 13.5 points, whereas a schedule adjusted margin of victory calculation lowers that difference considerably.
Our call: We call it 31-24 for the Mountaineers.

Capital One Bowl : Penn State vs. LSU : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

January 1, 2010, Friday (New Year's Day)

22. Capital One Bowl, Orlando, FL, Penn State vs. LSU, 1:00 pm

The opening line favored Penn State by 3 points and that spread has dropped to 2.5 points at the time of this posting. YPPSYS ranks Penn State 9th with a rating of 0.8 and LSU 23rd with a rating of -0.2, a difference of 1.0 x 9 = 9 points. YPPSYS II calculates the schedule-adjusted margin of victory as 11.6 for Penn State and 8.6 for LSU, a margin of only 3 points. Our call: We split the difference and call it 23-17 for the Nittany Lions.

Outback Bowl : Northwestern vs. Auburn : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

January 1, 2010, Friday (New Year's Day)

21. Outback Bowl, Tampa, FL, Northwestern vs. Auburn, 11:00 am


The opening line favored Auburn by 4 points and that spread has risen to 7.5 points at the time of this posting. YPPSYS I ranks Auburn 18th with a rating of -0.1 and Northwestern 79th with a rating of -2.2, a difference of 2.1 x 9 = 18.9 points. When the schedule adjusted margin of victory is considered, that spread is lessened. Our call: We call it 38-24 for Auburn.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl : Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 31, 2009, Thursday (New Year's Eve)

20. Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Atlanta, Georgia, Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee, 7:30 pm

Tennessee has improved this year but the Virginia Tech offense and defense are both statistically a bit better this year than the comparable teams of the Volunteers.

The opening line favored Virginia Tech by 4 points and the spread over Tennessee at the time of this posting was 5.5 points.

YPPSYS ranks the Hokies 8th with a rating of 0.9 and the Vols 19th with a rating of -0.1, a difference of 1.0 x 9 = 9 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory puts Virginia Tech at 7th with 14.7 points and Tennessee 16th with 9.6 points, a 5.1 point advantage to the Hokies.

Our call: We split the difference and call it 24-17 for Virginia Tech.

Insight Bowl : Minnesota vs. Iowa State : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 31, 2009, Thursday (New Year's Eve)

19. Insight Bowl, Tempe, Arizona, Minnesota vs. Iowa State, 6:00 pm

YPPSYS ranks Minnesota 76th with a rating of - 2.2 and Iowa State 85th with a rating of -2.5, giving the Golden Gophers an advantage of 0.3 x 9 = 2.7 points over the Cyclones, and a schedule-adjusted margin of victory makes the game about even, so take your pick. Iowa State has the better offense - a bit below average - and Minnesota has the better defense - a bit better than average. Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points.
Our call: We call it 24-21 for Minnesota.

Texas Bowl : Navy vs Missouri : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 31, 2009, Thursday (New Year's Eve)

18. Texas Bowl, Houston, Texas, Navy vs. Missouri, 3:30 pm

YPPSYS ranks Missouri 32nd with a rating of -0.5 and Navy 61st with a rating of -1.8, a difference of 1.3 x 9 = 11.7 points. That separation is smaller however when the schedule-adjusted margin of victory is considered. Missouri is favored by 6 points.

We are not fans of Navy or Air Force football at all because they intentionally use potentially dangerous cut blocks (blocks below the waist - e.g. at the thighs, knees or ankles) to run their offensive system, blocks which are known to be avoidable sources of player injuries, and in fact have been made illegal on the line (no chop blocks permitted), so why should they be allowed elsewhere? Football is a game and there is no excuse for putting young men in danger of serious injury for a block that is absolutely not necessary for the game of football.

Our call: We call it for Missouri 34-24.

Sun Bowl : Oklahoma vs. Stanford : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 31, 2009, Thursday (New Year's Eve)

17. Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas, Oklahoma vs. Stanford, 2:00 pm

As a law school alumnus of Stanford, my allegiance in this game is of course with the Cardinal team, head coach Jim Harbaugh, Heisman 2nd-placed Toby Gerhart, and rising QB star Andrew Luck, whose recent surgery on his throwing hand makes his start in the Sun Bowl doubtful. It is conceivable that Tavita Pritchard may have to lead the team against the Sooners.

Stanford has all the makings of being a future Pac-10 football powerhouse, but the question must be asked whether they are far enough along to beat Oklahoma, a team loaded with talent, albeit greatly suffering this year from heartbreaking losses in close games as well as the injury-based loss of their Heisman-winning quarterback, Sam Bradford. In view of the Sooners 27-0 lacing of Oklahoma State in their last game, Oklahoma has apparently recovered enough to again be a formidable opponent to any team, holding the high-powered offense of the then 11th-ranked Cowboys to 6 first downs.

Our call: Oklahoma is favored over Stanford by 7 points. YPPSYS ranks Oklahoma 16th with a rating of 0.2 and Stanford 34th with a rating of -0.6, a difference of 0.8 x 9 = 7.2 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory puts Oklahoma 6th in the nation at 15.8 points as compared to Stanford's 8.2 points, 21st in the nation, a difference of 7.6 points. The YPPSYS stats thus fully support the oddsmakers' 7-point spread. The key stat may be the fact that Oklahoma ranks 5th in the nation in allowing only 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. If Stanford has to play without the adeptly passing Luck at QB, then Oklahoma will be able to concentrate on Gerhart's rushing.
We call it 31-21 for the Sooners, although we might have gone with Stanford if Luck were healthy.

Armed Forces Bowl : Houston vs. Air Force : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 31, 2009, Thursday (New Year's Eve)

16. Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, TX, Houston vs. Air Force, 12:00 pm

The opening line favored Houston by 7 points, which has fallen to a spread of 4 points at the time of this posting, surely because of the strength of the Air Force defense, which ranks 1st in the nation in passing defense, in spite of BYU's Max Hall, who zipped the Falcons for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns in their last regular season game. Air Force finished 4th in the very strong Mountain West Conference, a conference which thus far is undefeated in its bowl games. Air Force lost only 20-17 to undefeated TCU.

In other words, it is possible that Houston and its high-flying quarterback Case Keenum will have a tough time moving the ball against Air Force, which has a much better defense than an East Carolina team that beat the Cougars 38-32 at season's end.

Our call: YPPSYS ranks Houston 41st with a rating of -0.8 and Air Force 58th with a rating of -1.7, a difference of 0.9 x 9 = 8.1 points, whereas a schedule-adjusted margin of victory comparison leans in the direction of an even game. Houston averages 6.9 yards per play on offense but an astronomical 6.0 yards per play on defense, whereas the Falcons average a meager 4.8 yards per play on offense but a very strong 4.7 yards per play on defense. The result of the poor Houston offense is that the Air Force offense will have breathing room to perform. The excellent Air Force defense could stymie the Courgar offense enough to permit Air Force to win. We call it 27-26 for the Falcons.

Holiday Bowl : Nebraska vs. Arizona : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 30, 2009, Wednesday

15. Holiday Bowl, San Diego, CA, Nebraska vs. Arizona, 8:00 pm

The opening line on the Holiday Bowl game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Arizona Wildcats saw this game as even, and the Arizona Wildcats are now surprisingly seen by the line as 1-point favorites, in spite of the Huskers narrow 13-12 loss in the Big 12 championship game to highly-ranked Texas, a game which Nebraska actually deserved to win.

Nebraska already beat a Stoops-coached team this year - the better of the two Stoops teams - and so a Nebraska loss in this game is unlikely.

Apparently the oddsmakers are impressed by the Wildcats last regular season game, in which they vanquished a relatively weak Southern Cal team, 21-17, gaining 239 yards passing on 22- of 40 completions. They will have difficulty gaining comparable yardage against the Nebraska defense, which has been running in a 4-1-6, 4-0-7 viz. 5-6 formation ever since midseason, i.e. with more-or-less 6 defensive backs and a (4-to-) 5-man rush, including the nation's best lineman, award-winning Ndamukong Suh, the AP college football player of the year:

Nebraska has a defense statistically similar to that of the Iowa Hawkeyes, who beat Arizona 27-17 early in the season, allowing only 8 first downs, and the Husker defense is even better than that of Iowa, compensating all season long for an anemic offense. The game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on turfgrass (made in Arizona), and this might give the Wildcats a bit of an unfair home field advantage :-) so one has to be careful in prognostications.

NU had 5 first downs against Texas as the helpless offensive coordination staff of Nebraska amazed the nation with its inept playcalling. Seldom has there been such a great gap between the offensive and defensive units of a college football team - and this can only be a function of two competence levels in offensive and defensive coordination. One can only hope that there will be absolutely necessary changes made in the offensive coaching staff when the season ends. Wishful thinking can not make untalented coaches competent. Perhaps some people are better at recruiting than coaching? Certainly possible, and maybe their responsibilities should be tailored according to their talents. Just a suggestion, mind you.

Our call: YPPSYS I ranks the Cornhuskers 20th with a rating of -0.1 and Arizona 29th with a rating of-0.4, or a difference of 0.3 x 9 = 2.7 points. YPPSYS II by the schedule-adjusted margin of victory MOV rates the Huskers 13th at 10.6 points and Arizona 28th at 5.6 points, or a five-point advantage to the Cornhuskers. We call it for Nebraska 26-14 on the assumption that the sputtering nationally 102nd-ranked offense will have been tweaked in the interim and that freshman QB Cody Green will also play some as a run-and-pass QB - how about a pistol or wildcat formation?

Humanitarian Bowl : Idaho vs. Bowling Green : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 30, 2009, Wednesday

14. Humanitarian Bowl, Boise, Idaho, Idaho vs. Bowling Green, 4:30 pm

By common opponent comparison this football season, the Idaho Vandals lost to Boise State 63-25 while the Bowling Green Falcons lost to the Broncos 49-14, but comparative scores can be deceiving, as Boise State outgained Bowling Green 529 yards to 282 yards, whereas the Vandals actually put up MORE yards total offense than the Broncos, outgaining them 514 yards to 458 yards. Idaho lost the game because of 7 turnovers and otherwise might in fact be the much stronger team when compared to Bowling Green.

Our call: The opening line favored the Falcons by 1 point and was 2 points at the time of this posting. YPPSYS ranks Idaho 53rd with a rating of -1.6 and Bowling Green 94th with a rating of -2.8, a difference of 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 points. Both teams have leaky pass defenses and a lot of points should be scored. We thus call this game for Idaho 44-34.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Champs Sports Bowl : Miami of Florida vs. Wisconsin : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 29, 2009, Tuesday

13. Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando, FL, Miami of Florida vs. Wisconsin, 8:00 pm

The offenses and the defenses of Miami of Florida and Wisconsin are virtually even, except that the Hurricanes gain more yards through the air and Wisconsin more on the ground. Pass interceptions cost Miami the games against North Carolina and Clemson and a clearly better Virginia Tech team hounded sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris all day. For Wisconsin to win, they will have to stop the Miami passing game or they will lose.
Our call: Miami of Florida started out as a 6 point favorite but the line is down to 3 points at the time of this posting. YPPSYS ranks the Hurricanes 17th with a rating of 0.1 and the Badgers 40th with a rating -0.7, a difference of 0.8 x 9 = 7.2 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory gives Miami of Florida a rating of 7.5 and Wisconsin 6.1, a difference of only 1.4 points.
We split the difference and call this game for the Hurricanes 31-27.

See previous posts for important legal notices regarding these prognostications.

Eaglebank Bowl : Temple vs. UCLA : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 29, 2009, Tuesday

12. Eaglebank Bowl, Washington, D.C., Temple vs. UCLA, 4:30 pm

In spite of its 35-17 loss to the Ohio Bobcats in its last regular season game, the Temple Owls had a Cinderella season, forging a nine-game winning streak up to the final game and finishing 9-3. UCLA finished 6-6 and is an average team in nearly every category. YPPSYS ranks Temple 54th and UCLA 56th going into this bowl contest. Our call: The opening line favored the Bruins by 4 points and this has risen to 6 points at the time of this posting. The margin of victory comparison is almost evened out by the difference in schedule difficulty, so that either team can legitimately win this game. We call it for Temple, 27-26.

See previous posts for important legal notices regarding these prognostications.

Friday, December 25, 2009

Independence Bowl : Texas A&M vs. Georgia : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 28, 2009, Monday

11. Independence Bowl, Shreveport, Louisiana, Texas A&M vs. Georgia, 5:00 pm

YPPSYS ranks Georgia 24th with a rating of -0.2 and Texas A&M 69th with a rating of -2.0, a difference of 1.8 x 9 = 16 points. Both teams have equally strong offenses but the Bulldogs have a bit better than average defense while the Aggies have a a very weak defense, so that A&M did well this season only against teams with weak defenses, while other teams blew them off the field. By comparative scores, Oklahoma State beat Georgia 24-10 and beat Texas A&M 36-31. However, in the present match-up, we see little chance that Texas A&M can keep up with the scoring of the opposing team, since its own offense will likely be stymied by the Georgia defense.
Our call: The opening line favored Georgia by 4 points and at the time of this posting the spread had risen to 7 points. Each team had a scant margin of victory this season, though Georgia faced a tougher schedule. We call it 38-27 for Georgia.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

Music City Bowl : Clemson vs. Kentucky : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 27, 2009, Sunday

10. Music City Bowl, Nashville, TN, Clemson vs. Kentucky, 8:30 pm

YPPSYS I ranks Clemson 21st with a rating of -0.1 and Kentucky 64th with a rating of -1.9, a difference of 1.8 x 9 = 16.2 points. YPPSYS II by schedule-adjusted margin of victory rates Clemson at 8.2 and Kentucky at 0.8, or an advantage of 7.4 points to Clemson.

Our call: The opening line was 7.5 points and had dropped to 7 points at the time of this posting. Kentucky QB Mike Hartline, who has not played since October due to an injury, may play in the bowl game, thus giving Kentucky the passing game it has otherwise lacked this season ever since his injury, so he might be quite rusty, but this adds a substantial element of uncertainty to this game. By comparative scores, Kentucky lost to South Carolina 28-26 on the road while the Tigers lost to the Gamecocks on the road 34-17. We call it for Clemson 32-24.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Husker Honoroed : AP Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh scores one for the D - College Football - Rivals.com

AP Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh scores one for the D - College Football - Rivals.com:

"Spurred by a dominant performance against Texas in the Big 12 title game, Suh became the first defensive player voted The Associated Press College Football Player of the Year on Tuesday."

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Who Has the Most Passionate Fans In College Football?

The Fabulous Forum at the BleacherReport.com asks: Who Has the Most Passionate Fans In College Football?

Chris Dufresne, Los Angeles Times, at The Fabulous Forum, BleacherReport.com, writes, inter alia,
"Nebraska has the smartest football fans....

but the most passionate fans, a euphemism for "nuts," are in Tuscaloosa and cheer for Alabama."
Dean Jones Jr. of the Baltimore Sun, on the other hand, gives the edge to Florida. See the whole posting here.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Emerald Bowl : Boston College vs. USC : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 26, 2009, Saturday

9. Emerald Bowl, San Francisco, CA, Boston College vs. USC, 8:00 pm

Being in this bowl is a great success story for the Eagles, who in the preseason were picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division.

Being in this bowl, on the other hand, is mortifying for the Trojans, who entered the season ranked in the top five in the nation in everybody's polls but self-destructed on the field. USC played flat in losing to Arizona 21-17 to close out their season, otherwise they would be playing Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. Maybe they were just subconsciously avoiding Ndamukong Suh.

Having east coast Boston College and west coast Southern Cal play each other is surely unusual, but it may be destiny, given the fact that the two schools had previously already scheduled a two-game series in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. This one will be the warm-up.

Our question is: how many fans from Los Angeles and Boston are going to come to see this game in San Francisco in December, and if not, does the Bay Area have enough diehard college football fans to fill the stadium - on the 2nd day of Christmas? Take a look at a chart at the Wizard of Odds for bowl ticket sales by participating colleges last season - it is an eye opener, as these rankings may be far more important - ultimately - than the football polls. For example, last year USC sold 33,179 tickets for the Rose Bowl, while Boston College sold a paltry 1,400 tickets to the Music City Bowl.

Our Call: The opening line favored the Trojans by 7 points and the current spread is 9 points. YPPSYS ranks USC 11th with a rating of +0.4 (only the top 17 teams have plus ratings this season) and Boston College ranks 39th with a rating of -0.7, a difference of 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 points. When their respective schedule-adjusted MOVs (margins of victory) are compared, USC is rated at 5.4 and BC is rated at 1.9, a 3.6 point difference. We call it 30-24 for USC.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Meineke Car Care Bowl : North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 26, 2009, Saturday

8.
Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte, NC, North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh, 4:30 pm


In the regular season finale, the Tar Heels lost (again) to N.C. State 28-27 in an error-ridden game, in spite of being the dominant team statistically - a result which may point to flawed field management by the coaching staff. North Carolina is otherwise a very strong team, having defeated the only two ranked teams the Tar Heels played, Virginia Tech and Miaim of Florida. But they had trouble with weaker teams, losing also to Virginia and Florida State. The loss to a stronger Georgia Tech was expected. North Carolina has an exceptionally good defense but a weak offense, which can offset good defensive efforts.

Pittsburgh has been highly regarded and barely lost the season finale to undefeated Cincinnati 45-44, but the Panthers also lost at West Virginia and early in the season were defeated at home by none other than North Carolina State 38-31. The Wolfpack put up 530 yards against the Panthers as opposed to only 335 yards against the Tar Heels. Pitt did not beat a ranked team this year, so their true strength remains a bit of a mystery.

Our call: The opening line was 2 points in favor of Pittsburgh and is currently 3 points. This game looks like a defensive struggle with Pitt winning in the end due to its superior offense. YPPSYS ranks the Panthers 10th with a rating of 0.5 and North Carolina 28th with a rating of -0.4, a difference of .9 x 0 = 8.1 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory in YPPSYS II rates Pitt at 9.6 and North Carolina at 3.8 for a difference of 5.8 points. We call it 24-17 for the Panthers.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl : Marshall vs. Ohio : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 26, 2009, Saturday

7. Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Detroit, Michigan, Marshall vs. Ohio, 1:00 pm

Marshall head coach Mark Snyder (22-37 over five years) resigned November 29 after Marshall's 52-21 blowout loss to UTEP. Marshall ended the season 6-6, with no signature wins. Snyder will be replaced next year by West Virginia assistant coach John "Doc" Holliday, who has received a 5-year contract. Rick Minter, the current defensive coordinator, is to coach the bowl game. This makes the bowl game outcome more unpredictable. Moreover, the previously injured 1,000-yard-tailback Darius Marshall will reportedly be ready to play, together with several formerly injured starters in the offensive line. Marshall has won 10 of the last 12 games between the two teams.

Ohio reached the Mid-American Conference title game, losing to Central Michigan 20-10 to finish out an excellent 9-4 regular season, in which they played e.g. SEC Tennessee nearly even in a 24-23 loss.
Both teams have comparably strong offenses but the Bobcats have the better defense, averaging one yard per play less. Our call: The opening line was 4 points in favor of Ohio but that has dropped to 1.5 points at the time of this writing. YPPSYS ranks Ohio 47th with a rating of -1.4 and Marshall 90th with a rating of -2.7, which would make Ohio the favorite by 1.3 x 9 = 11.7 points. Ohio has a MOV of 4.1 and Marshall -3.1 for a difference of 7.2 points. However, YPPSYS II puts the Bobcat schedule at a rank of 84 (rating -2.5) compared to the Thundering Herd schedule rank of 79.5 (rating -1.9), for a difference of .6 x 9 = 5.4 points, which makes Ohio a thin 1.8 point favorite. We call it for the Bobcats 23-20.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Hawaii Bowl : SMU vs. Nevada : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 24, 2009, Thursday

6. Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, SMU vs. Nevada, 8:00 pm

Nevada ranked first in the nation in the regular season in yards per play gained on offense (7.5 ypp) and 2nd in terms of total offense per game (521.6 yards). The weakness of the Wolf Pack is on defense, where they gave up 6.2 yards per play, more than any other team in the YPPSYS top 50 teams. How Nevada could have been shut out 35-0 by Notre Dame to open the season and how they could lose to a weak Colorado State 35-20 early in the season is anyone's guess, but the team improved later, running up big scores (albeit on weaker teams) and even losing to unbeaten Boise State only 44-33 in the season finale. However, a team with a defense as bad as this can be beaten on any given day by a team clicking on offense.

Is SMU such a team? This will be SMU's first bowl game in 25 years! Under the leadership of second-year head coach June Jones, formerly of Hawaii, for whom this bowl game in Honolulu is a personal homecoming, SMU has made great progress this year, finishing the regular season at 7-5 after going 1-11 last year. That is a turnaround which shows what a top coach can achieve.

Our call: Nevada was favored by 11 points in the opening line, which stands at 15.5 points currently. YPPSYS ranks SMU 62nd with a rating of -1.8 and the Wolf Pack 35th with a rating of -0.6, which gives Nevada a 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 point edge. The Wolf Pack had a margin of victory of 13.4 points to the Mustangs -1.2 for a net difference of 14.6 points. Adjusted for schedule difficulty by YPPSYS II this gives the Wolf Pack a rating of 8.0 points (compare that to the schedule adjusted MOV for Boise State of 19.3 points and you hit the 44-33 game result between them right on the head). SMU has a schedule adjusted MOV of -6.7 which gives a 14.7 point difference. We err on the side of June Jones for the line and call it 48-38 for Nevada.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Nebraska Star Suh Keeps His Head in the Game, but His Heart Is in Africa - NYTimes.com

Nebraska Star Suh Keeps His Head in the Game, but His Heart Is in Africa - NYTimes.com

Utah vs. California : Poinsettia Bowl : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 23, 2009, Wednesday

5. Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, CA, Utah vs. California, 8:00 pm

Utah has the nation's longest intact bowl winning streak at 8 games and its current head coach, Kyle Whittingham is 4-0. During the season, the Utes played 3 teams currently ranked in the top 15 and lost to them all (TCU, Oregon and BYU). Utah lost to Oregon by only 7, 31-24, in a game fairly even on stats, and had better stats than BYU in its season-ending loss 26-23, in overtime. Utah was soundly beaten only by TCU, and the Horned Frogs are simply the better team this year.

Cal is 5-1 in bowl games under head coach Jeff Tedford, who has done a lot for Cal football but whose teams seldom play consistently well throughout one full season. Although Cal this year beat ranked Arizona and Stanford, Cal also lost to ranked Oregon and USC and to unranked Oregon State and Washington, ignominiously losing in their final regular season game 42-10 to a Huskies team it beat last year 48-7. The Cal loss was a tremendous finish for first year head coach Steve Sarkisian, as Washington went 5-7 this year as compared to 0-12 the past season, but it once again brought to light the Golden Bears inconsistent play under Tedford tutelage. Injured tailback Jahvid Best will not play in the bowl game - according to this report.

Our call: YPPSYS ranks Utah 26th with a rating of -0.2 and California 38th with a rating of -0.7, so that the .5 rating difference x 9 means 4.5 points on the scoreboard in favor of Utah. The schedule adjusted margin of victory gives Utah a rating of 5.3 and Cal a rating of 2.1, i.e. a field goal advantage to the Utes. The opening line had Cal as 2.5 point favorites and that is now up to 4 points. Even if we give Cal a bit of a home field advantage because this game is in California, we still call it 31-30 for Utah.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

BYU vs. Oregon State : Las Vegas Bowl : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 22, 2009, Tuesday

4. Las Vegas Bowl, BYU vs. Oregon State, 8:00 pm

In spite of a season opening 14-13 upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, the BYU early season 3rd game 54-28 blowout loss to Florida State did not help raise the status of the Mountain West Conference, although the game stats were nearly even, as each team punted only once and gained ca. 500 yards total offense, with the Cougars actually gaining more yards per play (8.9 ypp) than the Seminoles (6.6 ypp), but BYU turned the ball over 5 times. The 31-7 loss to TCU was in fact much more devastating in terms of domination. Doubt-provoking was also a late season 24-19 squeaker over then winless New Mexico.

Oregon State fields a very strong team who's worst loss of the season was to unbeaten Cincinnati 28-18 early in the season, with close losses to Arizona, USC and Oregon, as the Beavers came within a gnawed log of going to the Rose Bowl, losing the "Civil War for the Roses" to Oregon 37-33, rightfully so in our opinion, as the Ducks are surely the better representative, with a lone conference loss to Stanford and one out of conference loss to Boise State.

Our call: The betting line favors Oregon State by 2.5 points. YPPSYS ranks BYU 15th (rating .02) and Oregon State 33rd (rating -0.6) which gives Brigham Young University a 0.8 rating advantage and 0.8 x 9 = 7.2 points on the scoreboard. YPPSYS II gives BYU an 8.6 MOV schedule-adjusted rating as compared to 5.4 for the Beavers, or a one field goal advantage for the Cougars. Both YPPSYS calculations thus favor BYU. We call it 37-34 for BYU.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee : New Orleans Bowl : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 20, 2009, Sunday

3. New Orleans Bowl, Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee, 8:30 pm

YPPSYS I ranks Middle Tennessee 42nd (rated -0.8) and Southern Miss 46th (rated -1.4), so that the ratings favor the Blue Raiders by .6 x 9 = 5.4 points. Middle Tennessee had a MOV of 8.2 as compared to the Golden Eagles 8.5, or a .3 advantage for Southern Miss, lessened by .1 through ease of schedule difficulty, so that YPPSYS II would give the Golden Eagles a razor thin .2 point advantage. The opening line favored Southern Miss by 6 points and now stands at 3.5 points.

Our call: The Golden Eagles bring a leaky pass defense into the game against a capable pass-and-run QB in Dwight Dasher, who may prove to be the difference in the football game. We call it for Middle Tennessee 27-26.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Rutgers vs. UCF : St. Petersburg Bowl : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 19, 2009, Saturday


2. St. Petersburg Bowl, Rutgers vs. UCF, St. Petersburg, FL, 8:00 pm

Scarlet Knights vs. Knights - a rare football joust between teams rated 49th and 52nd by YPPSYS, giving Rutgers a .1 x x 9 = .9 points advantage. The Scarlet Knights averaged a MOV of 10.1 to 5.6 for UCF for a MOV favoring Rutgers by 4.5, but the adjustment for YPPSYS schedule difficulty is -.6 rating points x 9 = 5.4 giving the advantage to UCF by .9 points, so that the YPPSYS II rating exactly offsets the YPPSYS I rating, which makes this game dead even on paper.

UCF has the stouter running defense and the weaker passing defense (112th nationally). The heralded offensive line at Rutgers has not lived up to expectations this year and Rutgers is not likely to run the ball well against UCF.

As for the passing game, the Scarlet Knights' freshman QB Tom Savage has a very low quarterback rating of 82.5 and is facing a strong pass rush. If Case Keenum and Houston could not beat UCF, then Rutgers will be hard pressed to do so.

Our call: Rutgers opened as a 4-point favorite and the line is now 3 points.
We call this game 21-20 for UCF, thinking that playing in Florida will give them nearly a home field advantage.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season : New Mexico Bowl : Fresno State vs. Wyoming

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 19, 2009, Saturday


1. New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM, Fresno State vs. Wyoming, 4:30 pm (read preview from The Sportmeisters at BleacherReport.com and this article about Wyoming at Rivals.com.)

At YPPSYS, the Bulldogs (YPPSYS rating -1.9) rank 66th and the Cowboys (YPPSYS rating -3.1) rank 99th, which makes Fresno State the favorite by 10.8 points (-3.1 - -1.9 = 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 points. The opening line favored the Bulldogs by 13, but the current line is 11 points, virtually the same as our own stats.
Wyoming scored 10.4 points less than opponents due to a weak offense this season, a surprising result when one considers the credentials of first year head coach Dave Christensen, who did great things as offensive coordinator the previous season at Missouri. Pat Hill is a successful if also controversial head coach in Fresno who was expected to bring Fresno State into the top national rankings, but this has not happened.
Our call: Wyoming will struggle with the Fresno State running attack so it is a question of how much offense they can sustain themselves. We call it for Fresno State 44-34.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Texas Longhorns Rank No. 1 in YPPSYS College Football Comparative Margin of Victory Ratings Adjusted for Schedule Difficulty NCAA FBS pre-Bowl

Texas Longhorns Rank No. 1 in the NCAA FBS YPPSYS College Football Comparative Margin of Victory Ratings Adjusted for YPPSYS calculation of Schedule Difficulty pre-Bowl

MARGIN OF VICTORY RATINGS

ADJUSTED by SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY

1. Texas 24.6
2. TCU 22.0
3. Alabama 20.7
4. Florida 20.5
5. Boise State 19.3
6. Oklahoma 15.8
7. Virginia Tech 14.7
8. Oregon 14.1
9. Cincinnati 13.3
10. Ohio State 13.2
11. Penn State 11.6
12. Texas Tech 11.3
13. Nebraska 10.6
14. Arkansas 10.3
15. Georgia Tech 9.6
16. Tennessee 9.6
17. Pittsburgh 9.6
18. LSU 8.6
19. BYU 8.6
20. Houston 8.5
21. Stanford 8.2
22. Clemson 8.2
23. Nevada 8.0
24. Miami of Florida 7.5
25. Mississippi 7.2
26. Wisconsin 6.1
27. Auburn 6.0
28. Arizona 5.6
29. USC 5.4
30. Oregon State 5.4
31. Utah 5.3
32. Central Michigan 5.2
33. Oklahoma State 4.8
34. Iowa 4.0
35. West Virginia 3.1
36. East Carolina 3.0
37. Missouri 2.1
38. California 2.1
39. Boston College 1.9
40. South Carolina 1.4

This is a supplement to our previously posted YPPSYS Rankings. These are our YPPSYS College Football Comparative Margin of Victory Schedule Adjusted Ratings for the top 40 NCAA Division I-A FBS teams pre-Bowl (where TCU initially served as the base MOV value for calculation, but with all final values adjusted downward 6.3 points to the Alabama Crimson Tide as the actual MOV point reference). Up to now we have used the schedule of difficulty ratings of the Massey Ratings - but this supplementary YPPSYS ranking uses our OWN schedule of difficulty calculations. These Schedule Difficulty Adjustments on the Margin of Victory data make the Texas Longhorns the national champion of the regular football season, and this in spite of the narrow 1-point victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Championship game.

For the BCS national championship game, these stats would make Texas a 4 point favorite over Alabama, whereas the pure YPPSYS ratings, based on NAYPPA and schedule difficulty, and without taking margin of victory into account, would favor Alabama by 3 points, so that this game promises to be a barnburner.

Calculations were initially made using TCU as the base value - the figures in the final ratings were then derived from these original figues later by subtracting 6.3 points from them to adjust the final values to Alabama and Oregon as the base teams for difficulty of schedules. These final ratings now give the calculated scoring strength of each team as if every team had played the same schedule difficulty as Alabama and Oregon, i.e. these ratings show their MOV would have looked had they played the Alabama or Oregon schedule.

Details:
YPPSYS Calculation of Schedule Difficulty is based upon YPPSYS Ratings of Division I-A FBS Teams. In cases where FBS teams played FCS or other teams, we use the schedule rating according to the Massey Ratings, with a top schedule difficulty cutoff mark at 240 (twice x 120), as numbers beyond this would skew any calculation badly.

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Our Websites and Blogs: 3D Printing and More 99 is not 100 Aabecis AK Photo Blog Ancient Egypt Weblog Ancient Signs (the book) Ancient World Blog AndisKaulins.com Anthropomorphic Design Archaeology Travel Photos (blog) Archaeology Travel Photos (Flickr) Archaeo Pundit Arts Pundit Astrology and Birth Baltic Coachman Bible Pundit Biotechnology Pundit Book Pundit Chronology of the Ancient World Computer Pundit DVD Pundit Easter Island Script Echolat edu.edu Einstein’s Voice Energy Environment and Climate Blog Etruscan Bronze Liver of Piacenza EU Laws EU Legal EU Pundit FaceBook Pundit Gadget Pundit Garden Pundit Golf Pundit Google Pundit Gourmet Pundit Hand Proof HousePundit Human Migrations Idea Pundit Illyrian Language Indus Valley Script Infinity One : The Secret of the First Disk (the game) Jostandis Journal Pundit Kaulins Genealogy Blog Kaulinsium Kiel & Kieler Latvian Blog LawPundit.com Law Pundit Blog LexiLine.com LexiLine Group Lexiline Journal Library Pundit Lingwhizt LinkedIn Literary Pundit Magnifichess Make it Music Maps and Cartography Megalithic World Megaliths Blog) Megaliths.net Minoan Culture Mutatis Mutandis Nanotech Pundit Nostratic Languages Official Pundit Phaistos Disc Pharaonic Hieroglyphs Photo Blog of the World Pinterest Prehistoric Art Pundit Private Wealth Blog PunditMania Quanticalian Quick to Travel Quill Pundit Road Pundit Shelfari SlideShare (akaulins) Sport Pundit Star Pundit Stars Stones and Scholars (blog) Stars Stones and Scholars (book) Stonehenge Pundit The Enchanted Glass Twitter Pundit UbiquitousPundit Vision of Change VoicePundit WatchPundit Wine Pundit Word Pundit xistmz YahooPundit zistmz