Going into the 9th college football weekend we are 370-102 in calling the winner and 196-188-8 against the spread, having had our best prediction week last week at 29-19-1 in beating the betting line. However, no one knows what the next week will bring.
Past results are no guarantee of future performance.
Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware). We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.
We take the so-called betting "line" for any game ("the point spread" between the winning and losing score) from the College Football Prediction Tracker, this week as of Monday, October 25, 2010 at 10:03 AM or if unavailable there then from Yahoo Odds at Rivals.com. If we use another source, that is noted next to the game call. The line changes for many games during the week but we do not take that into account in making our prognostications.
We rely on schedule difficulty and NAYPPA, the net average yards per play advantage of any team in total offense as our two main prediction parameters. Almost all calculations are done by hand and all addition in averaging schedule difficulty (rounded to the nearest 10) is done mostly in my head so errors are possible. Check our calculations if you have any doubt. We also make subjective judgments in our prognostications, not always predicting according to the stats and the post-Week 8 YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.
Massey calculates a home field advantage of 2.53 points, but this week we calculated the home field advantage differently. The Massey Ratings calculate that the average score in 2666 games this year has been 35.55 to 16.39 points (whether at home or away for the winner) while the average home score -- i.e. only for the home team (including both winning and losing games) -- was 28.30 - 23.73 on average, so that the total score between two teams was 52 points and on a neutral field should come out 26-26, but if the score shifts 2+ points in one direction for the winner because of the home field advantage, it also shifts the same distance in the other direction for the loser, which we calculate as an average difference of ca. 5 points, and that is important for the spread (to make it easier to split the shift we will often use a 6 point shift from the score to be expected on a neutral field.) A team that is 10 points better would then start out with a 31-21 spread on a neutral field, but this spread would change to ca. 34-18 on their home field and be ca. 28-24 on the opponent's home field. So we are trying that system this week.
Tuesday October 26, 2010
Boise State was favored at home over Louisiana Tech by 38 points.
We called it: 55-3 for Boise State.
Result: The Broncos won 49-20 putting up 7.2 yards per play to 4.8 yard per play for the Bulldogs, or only a 24-point superiority by NAYPPA, as the team of first-year head coach Sonny Dykes continues to improve, especially on offense, putting up 394 yards on the country's top defense as Boise State gained 468 yards total offense.
This season we are now 371-102 in calling the winner and 196-189-8 against the spread (betting line).
Thursday October 28, 2010
Florida State was favored on the road against North Carolina State (NC State) by 4 points.
We called it: 34-20 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles not only blew a 21-7 half-time lead but QB Christian Ponder fumbled the ball away with a 2nd and goal at the NC State 3-yard line and 53 seconds left to play in the game to lose 28-24. In the antithesis of clutch play, running a play-action fake, Ponder overextended the ball and his own tailback Ty Jones bumped the ball with his hip running past him, causing the fumble. Ponder had fumbled the ball away already once previously in the game, leading to an NC State score. So are games lost. Florida State averaged 6.1 yards per play to only 4.5 ypp for the Wolfpack and should never have lost this game.
This season we are now 371-103 in calling the winner and 196-190-8 against the spread (betting line).
Friday October 29, 2010
West Virginia was favored on the road against Connecticut by 6 points.
We called it: 26-24 for Connecticut.
Result: The Huskies won in overtime 16-13, even though the Mountaineers put up more total offense, 414 to 278 yards, and led in yards per play 5.1 to 4.0. But it is difficult to win if you fumble 7 times and lose 4 to the opposition, as one of the lost fumbles came on a 1st and goal at the 1 yard line in overtime. This is a game the Mountaineers should have won.
This season we are now 372-103 in calling the winner and 197-190-8 against the spread (betting line).
Saturday October 30, 2010
Miami of Florida was favored on the road against Virginia by 14 points.
We called it: 35-17 for the Hurricanes.
Result: In a stunning upset, the Cavaliers intercepted 5 passes of 3 different quarterbacks to take a 24-0 lead into the 4th quarter and held on to win 24-19.
This season we are now 372-104 in calling the winner and 197-191-8 against the spread (betting line).
Illinois was favored at home over Purdue by 14 points.
We called it: 30-17 for the Illini.
Result: The Illini rolled against the Boilermakers 44-10.
This season we are now 373-104 in calling the winner and 197-192-8 against the spread (betting line).
Northern Illinois was favored on the road against Western Michigan by 8.5 points.
We called it: 31-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result: The Huskies trailed surprisingly 14-13 at the half but came back to win 28-21.
This season we are now 374-104 in calling the winner and 197-193-8 against the spread (betting line).
Southern Miss was favored at home over UAB by 13.5 points.
We called it: 30-21 for Southern Miss.
Result: In a wild game in which no team lead by more than 8 points, UAB emerged the 50-49 victor in the second overtime on a two-point conversion.
When teams make gutsy calls like that, they deserve to win, even though the Golden Eagles put up 575 yards total offense to 462 yards for the Blazers.
This season we are now 374-105 in calling the winner and 198-193-8 against the spread (betting line).
South Carolina was favored at home over Tennessee by 17 points.
We called it: 35-14 for the Gamecocks.
Result: The Vols had it tied in the 4th quarter 24-24 but then faded down the stretch to lose 38-24 to the Gamecocks.
This season we are now 375-105 in calling the winner and 198-194-8 against the spread (betting line).
Pittsburgh was favored at home over Louisville by 10 points.
We called it: 34-20 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pittsburgh won a defensive contest 20-3, outgaining the Cardinals 255 to 185 yards total offense, and 4.2 to 3.4 yards per play. The Panthers appear to be the best of Big East, although Syracuse is a constantly improving team.
This season we are now 378-105 in calling the winner and 199-194-8 against the spread (betting line).
Cincinnati was favored at home against Syracuse by 7 points (computer prediction average).
We called it: 24-23 for the Orange.
Result: Syracuse surpassed all expectations by throttling Cincinnati 31-7 behind quarterback Ryan Nassib.
This season we are now 379-105 in calling the winner and 200-194-8 against the spread (betting line).
Army was at home against VMI (Virginia Military Institute), FCS -- no line
We called it: 44-7 for Army.
Result: Army won 29-7.
This season we are now 380-105 in calling the winner and 200-194-8 against the spread (betting line).
Clemson was favored on the road against Boston College by 7 points.
We called it: 17-14 for Clemson.
Result: Here is a case where we should have stuck with the stats as Boston College beat the Tigers 16-10 in a defensive football game.
This season we are now 380-106 in calling the winner and 201-194-8 against the spread (betting line).
Northwestern was favored on the road against Indiana by 3 points.
We called it: 35-31 for Northwestern.
Result: The Wildcats equalled the spread by beating the Hoosiers 20-17.
This season we are now 381-106 in calling the winner and 201-194-9 against the spread (betting line).
Oklahoma State was favored on the road against Kansas State by 4 points.
We called it: 38-27 for Oklahoma State.
Result: The Cowboys struggled but the superior offense put up 506 to 291 yards against the Wildcats to win 24-14.
This season we are now 382-106 in calling the winner and 202-194-9 against the spread (betting line).
Temple was favored at home over Akron by 27 points.
We called it: 49-10 for Temple.
Result: The Owls won 30-0, averaging 6.4 yards per play to the Zips 2.8.
This season we are now 383-106 in calling the winner and 203-194-9 against the spread (betting line).
Iowa State was favored at home over Kansas by 14 points.
We called it: 34-21 for the Cyclones.
Result: The Cyclones beat Kansas primarily on the strength of a 21-point 3rd quarter, 28-16.
This season we are now 384-106 in calling the winner and 204-194-9 against the spread (betting line).
San Diego State was favored on the road against Wyoming by 10 points.
We called it: 38-14 for San Diego State.
Result: The porous Aztec defense gave up a lot of points to the Cowboys but had enough of their own firepower to win 48-38, equalling the betting spread.
This season we are now 385-106 in calling the winner and 204-194-10 against the spread (betting line).
Ohio was favored at home over Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL, LA Lafayette) by 18 points.
We called it: 37-14 for Ohio.
Result: The Bobcats scraped out a 38-31 win even though the Ragin' Cajuns totalled more offense, 468 to 414 yards for Ohio.
This season we are now 386-106 in calling the winner and 204-195-10 against the spread (betting line).
Marshall was favored at home over UTEP by 4 points.
We called it: 28-23 for Marshall.
Result: Marshall beat UTEP 16-12, equalizing the spread. This season we are now 387-106 in calling the winner and 204-195-11 against the spread (betting line).
Notre Dame was favored at home over Tulsa by 10 points.
We called it: 35-24 for Notre Dame.
Result: The Fighting Irish lost 28-27 and deservedly so after having a pass intercepted on 2nd and 8 yards to go with 42 seconds to play and the ball on the Tulsa 19 yard line. Coaches have to play the percentages to win and not take needless risks in the closing minutes of a game.
This season we are now 387-107 in calling the winner and 204-196-11 against the spread (betting line).
Western Kentucky was favored at home over North Texas by 6 points.
We called it: 31-24 for Western Kentucky.
Result: The Mean Green levelled the Hilltoppers 33-6.
This season we are now 387-108 in calling the winner and 204-197-11 against the spread (betting line).
SMU was favored on the road against Tulane by 8.5 points.
We called it: 36-17 for SMU.
Result: SMU trailed 17-3 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter but then came back with a vengeance to win 31-17.
This season we are now 388-108 in calling the winner and 205-197-11 against the spread (betting line).
UCF (Central Florida) was favored at home over East Carolina by 7 points.
We called it: 37-21 for UCF.
Result: UCF won 49-35, although the Pirates put up 419 yards total offense on the board to the Knights slightly better 428.
This season we are now 389-108 in calling the winner and 206-197-11 against the spread (betting line).
Miami of Ohio was favored on the road against Buffalo by 4 points.
We called it: 28-20 for Buffalo.
Result: The RedHawks won 21-9. One problem at Buffalo is clueless coaching. After a TD to make the score 14-9 with 1 minute to play in the 3rd quarter, the Bulls went for the PAT and missed, rather than going for a two-pointer to come within field goal range. Incredible.
This season we are now 389-109 in calling the winner and 206-198-11 against the spread (betting line).
Kent State was favored at home over Ball State by 11.5 points.
We called it: 33-10 for Kent.
Result: The Golden Flashes won 33-14.
This season we are now 390-109 in calling the winner and 207-198-11 against the spread (betting line).
Central Michigan was favored at home over Bowling Green by 13 points.
We called it: 38-13 for Central Michigan.
Result: The Falcons shut down the Chippewa offense, allowing only 248 yards, and won 17-14.
This season we are now 390-110 in calling the winner and 207-199-11 against the spread (betting line).
Troy State was favored on the road against Louisiana-Monroe by 14 points.
We called it: 33-17 for Troy.
Result: The Warhawks upset the Trojans 28-14.
This season we are now 390-111 in calling the winner and 207-200-11 against the spread (betting line).
Navy was favored at home over Duke by 14.5 points.
We called it: 40-17 for Navy.
Result: The Blue Devils were ahead an incredible 24-0 at the half, but the Midshipmen put on a remarkable catch-up offense, reducing the deficit to 34-31 with 2:39 in the 4th quarter, but fell short in the end.
This season we are now 390-112 in calling the winner and 207-201-11 against the spread (betting line).
Maryland was favored at home over Wake Forest by 7.5 points.
We called it: 35-16 for Maryland.
Result: The Terrapins put it to the Demon Deacons 62-14.
This season we are now 391-112 in calling the winner and 208-201-11 against the spread (betting line).
North Carolina was at home against William & Mary of the FCS (no line), who just knocked off FCS top-ranked Delaware 17-16.
We called it: 21-10 for the Tar Heels.
Result: Johnny White ran 67 yards for a TD in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter and the final 21-17 score saved the Tar Heels from an embarassing loss to the FCS Tribe.
This season we are now 392-112 in calling the winner and 208-201-11 against the spread (betting line).
Iowa was favored at home over Michigan State by 4.5 points.
We called it: 31-30 Iowa.
Result: The Hawkeyes convincingly upended the previously unbeaten Spartans 37-6, intercepting 3 passes.
This season we are now 393-112 in calling the winner and 208-202-11 against the spread (betting line).
Texas A&M was favored at home over Texas Tech by 6 points.
We called it: 34-17 for Texas A&M.
Result: The Aggies beat Texas Tech 45-27.
This season we are now 394-112 in calling the winner and 209-202-11 against the spread (betting line).
Nebraska was favored at home over Missouri by 6 points.
We called it: 41-21 for the Cornhuskers.
Result: Roy Helu scored on rushes of 66, 73 and 53 yards and rushed for a record total of 307 yards as Nebraska won 31-17. The Big Red averaged 7.7 yards per play on offense and held the Tigers to 4.5 yards per play and 339 total yards while themselves putting up 454 yards. Taylor Martinez did not play in the second half due to an injury after completing 6 of 9 passes for 115 yards and 1 TD.
This season we are now 395-112 in calling the winner and 210-202-11 against the spread (betting line).
Arizona was favored on the road against UCLA by 8.5 points.
We called it: 34-17 for Arizona.
Result: Arizona won 29-21 as the difference in beating the spread or not was a missed PAT. The Wildcats were not impressive in the win.
This season we are now 396-112 in calling the winner and 210-203-11 against the spread (betting line).
Oregon State was favored at home over California by 3 points.
We called it: 31-20 for Cal.
Result: The Beavers chewed up the Golden Bears 35-7.
This season we are now 396-113 in calling the winner and 210-204-11 against the spread (betting line).
Florida was favored on the road against Georgia by 1.5 points.
We called it: 34-21 for Georgia.
Result: Florida led 21-7 but Georgia came back to tie the game 31-31 in the 4th quarter, only to lose to the Gators 34-31 in overtime.
This season we are now 396-114 in calling the winner and 210-205-11 against the spread (betting line).
San Jose State was favored on the road against New Mexico State by 1.5 points.
We called it: 28-26 for San Jose State.
Result: The Aggies scored a touchdown on an 8-yard pass from Matt Christian to Taveon Rogers as time expired to win 29-27.
This season we are now 396-115 in calling the winner and 210-206-11 against the spread (betting line).
Florida International was favored on the road against Florida Atlantic by 6 points.
We called it: 24-23 for FIU.
Result: The Owls hooted out the Panthers 21-9.
This season we are now 396-116 in calling the winner and 211-206-11 against the spread (betting line).
Toledo was favored on the road against Eastern Michigan by 14 points.
We called it: 28-24 for Toledo.
Result: The Rockets downed the Eagles 42-7.
This season we are now 397-116 in calling the winner and 211-207-11 against the spread (betting line).
Colorado State was favored at home over New Mexico by 15 points.
We called it: 28-23 for the Colorado State.
Result: The Rams bulldozed the hapless Lobos 38-14.
This season we are now 398-116 in calling the winner and 211-208-11 against the spread (betting line).
Auburn was favored on the road against Mississippi by 7.5 points.
We called it: 38-24 for Auburn.
Result: The Tiger offense outdueled the Rebels in a 51-31 win.
This season we are now 399-116 in calling the winner and 212-208-11 against the spread (betting line).
Houston was favored on the road against Memphis by 14 points.
We called it: 38-21 for Houston.
Result: Houston crushed Memphis 56-17.
This season we are now 400-116 in calling the winner and 213-208-11 against the spread (betting line).
Texas was favored at home over Baylor by 9 points.
We called it: 27-26 for Texas.
Result: The Bears upset the Longhorns 30-22.
This season we are now 400-117 in calling the winner and 214-208-11 against the spread (betting line).
Stanford was favored on the road against Washington by 7 points.
We called it: 37-28 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal recorded its second shutout of the season, beating the Huskies 41-0.
This season we are now 401-117 in calling the winner and 215-208-11 against the spread (betting line).
Arizona State was favored at home over Washington State by 21 points.
We called it: 41-16 for Arizona State.
Result: The Sun Devils parched out the Cougars 42-0.
This season we are now 402-117 in calling the winner and 216-208-11 against the spread (betting line).
Mississippi State was favored at home over Kentucky by 7 points.
We called it: 33-24 for Mississippi State.
Result: The Bulldogs equalized the spread in beating the Wildcats 24-17.
This season we are now 403-117 in calling the winner and 216-208-12 against the spread (betting line).
Arkansas was favored at home over Vanderbilt by 21.5 points.
We called it: 44-17 for Arkansas.
Result: Ryan Mallet threw for 409 yards and 3 TDs as the Razorbacks ripped the Commodores 49-14 after trailing 14-6 in the 1st quarter.
This season we are now 404-117 in calling the winner and 217-208-12 against the spread (betting line).
Utah was favored on the road against Air Force by 5 points.
We called it: 41-24 for Utah.
Result: the Utes took a 28-10 lead into the 4th quarter but barely escaped with a 28-23 win, equalizing the spread, after turning to their rushing game in the final stanza. You can not play too safe with a lead and expect to be top.
This season we are now 405-117 in calling the winner and 217-208-13 against the spread (betting line).
Michigan was favored on the road against Penn State by 3 points.
We called it: 33-27 for Michigan.
Result: The Wolverines fell to the Nittany Lions 41-31 as Denard Robinson ran for 191 yards and passed for 190 yards for Michigan, but it was not enough as Penn State put more points on the board against the weak Wolverine defense.
This season we are now 405-118 in calling the winner and 217-209-13 against the spread (betting line).
Ohio State was favored on the road against Minnesota by 26 points.
We called it: 47-14 for Ohio State.
Result: The Golden Gophers were no match for the Buckeyes 52-10.
This season we are now 406-118 in calling the winner and 218-209-13 against the spread (betting line).
Oregon was favored on the road against USC by 7 points.
We called it: 36-34 for USC.
Result: After taking a 32-29 lead in the 3rd quarter of the game, the USC defense and offense both collapsed and lost 53-32, as the Ducks inexplicably converted nearly every 3rd-down play at that point. Oregon averaged 7.4 yards per play to 4.4 yards for for the Trojans.
This season we are now 406-119 in calling the winner and 218-210-13 against the spread (betting line).
Oklahoma was favored at home over Colorado by 24 points.
We called it: 34-17 for Oklahoma. YPPSYS rates the Sooners 11 points better than the Buffaloes, plus the home field scoring advantage makes 17.
Result: The Sooners rebounded from last week's loss to Mizzou to win 43-10.
This season we are now 407-119 in calling the winner and 219-210-13 against the spread (betting line).
Nevada was favored at home over Utah State by 24 points.
We called it: 45-14 for Nevada.
Result: The Wolf Pack led 35-0 at halftime and then gave up 42 points to the tenacious Aggies in the second half in salvaging the win 56-42. Anytime a team thinks they have a game in the sack, they are inviting the opposite.
This season we are now 408-119 in calling the winner and 219-211-13 against the spread (betting line).
TCU was favored on the road against UNLV by 35 points.
We called it: 48-6 for TCU. YPPSYS rates the Horned Frogs 48 points better than the Rebels, minus the home field advantage makes 42.
Result: We closed out the day by picking the final score exactly, 48-6.
This season we are now 409-119 in calling the winner and 220-211-13 against the spread (betting line).
We finished the week 39-17 in picking the winner and 24-23-5 against the spread, in spite of many games being won by underdogs.
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