Tuesday, November 30, 2010

YPPSYS College Football Ratings and Rankings for NCAA Division I-A (FBS) after the 13th week of play 2010/2011

These are the YPPSYS college football rankings and ratings for NCAA Division I-A (FBS) after the 13th week of play 2010/2011.

NAYPPA = net average yards per play advantage and YPP = yards per play. Yards per play on offense is compared to yards per play allowed on defense to arrive at a net average, plus or minus. Adjusted by schedule difficulty, NAYPPA is our major variable for the rating and ranking of teams.

Yards per play (YPP) statistics are taken either from the individual cumulative stats at each school (linked at YPP OFF) or from cfbstats.com.

We estimate the schedule difficulty using Massey Ratings, but we calculate it differently than Massey does, taking it rather as the average of the rankings of the teams played, which gives us a different figure. We could reconvert this afterwards using our own rankings but that would be a double calculation which would bring little in addition to justify the extra work.

This week, we institute a different way of looking at schedule difficulty by also looking at the BEST WIN in terms of the rank of opposing teams beaten and/or WORST LOSS in terms of the rank of the winning opposing teams at Massey Ratings, an adjustment which is accounted for in the adjusted rating, marked by an * in the ratings column.

For example, Boise State played a schedule thus far ranked at an average of 100 in terms of opponent ranking and its best win this season was over now-12th-rated Virginia Tech and its worst loss (the only loss) was against now-17th-rated Nevada.

Oregon and Auburn here have the best stats beyond the pure ypp stats, where Boise State has an insurmountable lead.

The Ducks have played a schedule where the opposing teams current average rank is 70, with a best win over 2nd-ranked Stanford and they have no losses.

The Tigers have played a schedule whereby the teams played average 60th in rank, and the Auburn best win was over the now-6th-ranked team, Arkansas. Auburn has no lo.

By contrast, compare the vastly over-rated Big 10 teams, three of which are rated higher than the top-ranked Big 12 team in the polls. That can not properly reflect the realities.

Ohio State has played a schedule whose average rank is 80 and their best win this year is over 32nd-ranked Miami of Florida (Massey Ratings). Michigan State has played a schedule where their average opponent ranked 80th and they lost to 41st-ranked Iowa by a score of 37-6, not even close, and their best win is over highly over-ranked Wisconsin, now ranked 9th.

The Badgers have played a schedule whereby the average rank of their opponents is currently an astronomical 110th. Their win over over-rated 7th-ranked Ohio State is not supported by any other quality win, other than a 1-point victory at home over Arizona State.

Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State all have a strength which can be placed at or near between ca. 10th and 25th place in the rankings. Surely they can not be ranked above the best teams in the Big 12, at least not on the basis of any kind of rational performance comparisons.


Stanford, which is my law school alma mater and I am a big fan of the Cardinal, is also over-ranked, since the best team Stanford has beaten thus far this year is ranked 21st. Stanford is good, but they should not yet be 2nd.

On average 1 rating point on this new ranking scale with Best Win and Worst Loss included in the calculations should equal ca. 5 points on the scoreboard, but that is an estimate only. We will have to see what actually happens in the games this week.


YPPSYS College Football Rankings and Ratings 2010/2011 NCAA FBS (Division I-A) after Week 12 of Play

YPPSYS
Rank after Week 13 Games

TEAMNAYPPA
2010

YPP OFF
yards per play

YPP DEF
yards
per
play  


Schedule difficulty
thus far + best win rank + worst rank loss
(schedule difficulty estimated  as the 
adjusted
average rank of opponents
using Massey
Ratings as a base, and then 1/100th
of this is subtracted from the NAYPPA)

W-L 2010
Current
Season
Rating based on yards per play advantage adjusted by schedule
difficulty 
and a
special
adjusted
ranking
because
of rank of best team beaten or worst team lost to, plus other special adjustments)

1 Auburn 2.1
7.4
5.3

60-6-0
12-0
1.6
2 Oregon 2.3
6.8
4.5

70-2-0
11-0
1.6
3 Boise State 3.6 (!)
7.6
4.0

100-12-17
10-1
1.6
4 TCU 2.7
6.7
4.0

90-23-0
11-0
1.6
5 Nebraska 2.1
6.5
4.4

70-14-16*
10-2
1.3
6 Alabama 2.1
6.9
4.8

80-6-13
9-3
1.2
7 Oklahoma 0.3
5.5
5.2

50-18-16
10-2
1.2
8 Oklahoma State 2.0
7.0
5.0

60-16-15
10-2
1.2
9 Ohio State 2.3
6.5
4.2

80-32-9
11-1
1.2
10 Arkansas 2.2
7.3
5.1

80-11-8
10-2
1.2
11 Stanford 1.4
6.5
5.1

50-21-1
11-1
0.8
12 LSU 0.4
5.2
4.8

60-8-6
10-2
0.8
13 Iowa 1.3
6.1
4.8

80-20-86
7-5
0.5
14 Michigan State 1.4
6.4
5.0

80-9-41
11-1
0.5
15 Nevada 1.4
7.2
5.8

90-5-29
11-1
0.5
16 Wisconsin 1.6
6.8
5.2

110-7-20
11-1
0.5
17 South Carolina 1.0
6.1
5.1

60-8-59
9-3
0.4
18 Missouri 0.8
5.7
4.9

60-10-45
10-2
0.2
19 Texas A&M 0.8
5.5
4.7

50-10-18
9-3
0.2
20 Florida State 1.4
6.1
4.7

70-30-37
9-3
0.1
21 Arizona 1.3
6.3
5.0

90-33-31
7-4
0.1
22 San Diego State 1.9
6.7
4.8

120-39-68
8-4
0.0 
23 Virginia Tech 0.9
6.3
5.4

70-28-112
9-2
-0.1
24 Miami (Florida) 1.0
5.8
4.8

70-34-82
7-5
-0.1
25 West Virginia 1.0
5.1
4.1

80-34-66
8-3
-0.1
26 California 0.5
5.3
4.8

40-25-33
5-7
-0.2
27 Utah 1.2
6.3
5.1

100-39-26
10-2
-0.2
28Florida0.6
5.3
4.7

40-35-24
7-5
-0.3
29 Arizona State 0.9
6.0
5.1

60-33-38
5-6
-0.3
30 Georgia 1.2
6.4
5.2

90-49-67
6-6
-0.3
31 Hawaii 2.7
7.6
4.9

110-17-67
9-3
-0.3
32 Michigan 0.8
6.9
6.1

70-26-53
7-5
-0.3
33 North Carolina 0.8
5.9
5.1

50-19-63
7-5
-0.4
34 Baylor 0.9
6.6
5.7

80-52-45
7-5
-0.4
35 Pittsburgh 0.9
5.7
4.8

90-56-58
6-5
-0.6
36 Texas 0.6
5.2
4.6

50-15-64
5-7
-0.7
37 Notre Dame 0.5
5.5
5.0

50-22-50
7-5
-0.7
38 USC 0.1
6.0
5.9

40-21-33
7-5
-0.8
39 Boston College 0.5
4.9
4.4

70-36-34
7-5
-0.9
40 Mississippi St. 0.4
5.7
5.3

90-30-13
8-4
-0.9
41 Air Force 0.9
6.2
5.3

90-43-54
8-4
-0.9
42 Maryland 0.7
5.4
4.7

100-43-36
8-4
-1.0
43 N.C. State 0.0
5.3
5.3

80-19-77
8-4
-1.0
44 Washington -0.5
5.3
5.8

30-22-68
5-6
-1.0
45 Connecticut 0.1
5.2
5.1

100-27-105
7-4
-1.2
46 Navy 0.7
6.2
5.5

90-26-83
8-3
-1.2
47 SMU 1.3
6.4
5.1

80-51-123
7-5
-1.2
48 Syracuse 0.6
5.0
4.4

100-27-69
7-5
-1.2
49 Cincinnati 0.9
6.1
5.2

70-69-66
4-7
-1.2
50 South Florida 0.2
5.1
4.9

100-32-66
7-4
-1.2
51 Louisville 0.9
5.8
4.9

90-58-76
6-6
-1.2
52 Northern Illinois 1.7
6.8
5.1

150-70-64
10-2
-1.2
53 Tennessee 0.4
5.8
5.4

70-59-35
6-6
-1.3
54 Clemson 0.2
5.1
4.9

80-28-44
6-6
-1.4
55 Temple 0.8
5.5
4.7

130-58-92
8-4
-1.4
56 UCF 1.2
6.0
4.8

110-77-65
9-3
-1.4
57 Oregon State -0.4
5.2
5.6

30-21-71
5-6
-1.6
58 Illinois 0.4
5.6
5.2

70-40-86
6-5
-1.6
59 Penn State 0.0
5.6
5.6

70-50-46
7-5
-1.7
60 BYU -0.2
4.9
5.1

80-33-39
6-6
-1.7
61 Texas Tech -0.3
5.6
5.9

70-14-64
7-5
-1.8
62 Kentucky 0.6
6.2
5.6

150-11-80
6-6
-1.8
63 Tulsa 0.2
6.4
6.2

100-26-77
9-3
-1.9
64 Colorado -0.8
5.1
5.9

50-29-47*
5-7
-2.1
65 Georgia Tech 0.1
5.9
5.8

80-37-111
6-6
-2.2
66 Kansas State -0.5
5.8
6.3

60-55-67
7-5
-2.3
67 Houston 0.6
6.4
5.8

100-73-128
5-7
-2.4
68 UCLA -1.3
4.7
6.0

40-31-52
4-7
-2.5
69 Iowa State -0.9
4.6
5.5

50-40-67
5-7
-2.5
70 Virginia -0.5
5.6
6.1

90-32-83
4-8
-2.5
71 Kent State 0.5
4.9
4.4

120-85-93
5-7
-2.5
72 Fresno State 0.1
5.6
5.5

110-76-80
7-4
-2.6
73 Northwestern -0.4
5.5
5.9

100-41-90
7-5
-2.7
74 Southern Miss 0.2
5.8
5.6

110-57-122
8-4
-2.7
75 Washington St. -1.7
4.9
6.6

30-31-73
2-9
-3.0
76 East Carolina -0.5
5.9
6.4

90-28-128
6-6
-3.0
77 Purdue -0.5
4.7
5.2

80-72-101
4-8
-3.0
78 Louisiana Tech -0.7
5.3
6.0

90-81-65
5-6
-3.0
79 Ohio 0.4
5.5
5.1

130-92-119
8-4
-3.0
80 Miami (Ohio) -0.1
5.2
5.3

140-79-85
8-4
-3.1
81 Duke -1.2
5.2
6.4

60-43-95
3-9
-3.2
82 Mississippi -0.5
5.8
6.3

70-59-137
4-8
-3.2
83 Wake Forest -1.0
4.8
5.8

80-83-63
3-9
-3.2
84 Toledo 0.0
5.5
5.5

110-85-127
8-4
-3.3
85 Minnesota -1.3
5.3
6.6

70-46-90*
3-9
-3.4
86 UAB 0.0
5.8
5.8

100-65-169
4-8
-3.4
87 Vanderbilt -1.2
4.6
5.8

60-80-95
2-10
-3.6
88 Florida Int. FIU 0.3
5.7
5.4

110-110-169
6-5
-3.6
89 Utah State -1.1
4.9
6.0

110-68-81
4-7
-3.7
90 UTEP -0.1
5.6
5.7

150-73-149
6-6
-3.8
91 Army -0.6
5.1
5.7

140-83-105
6-5
-3.8
92 Kansas -1.9
4.3
6.2

70-63-65
3-9
-3.9
93 Marshall -0.3
4.9
5.2

90-85-189
5-7
-4.0
94 Indiana -1.2
5.4
6.6

120-90-72
5-7
-4.0
95 Idaho -0.6
5.4
5.8

100-93-146
5-7
-4.0
96 Rice -1.2
5.2
6.4

90-77-123
4-8
-4.1
97 Centr. Michigan -0.1
5.4
5.5

120-93-189
3-9
-4.1
98 Tulane -1.0
5.0
6.0

110-105-109
4-8
-4.2
99 Rutgers -1.0
4.6
5.6

110-58-149
4-7
-4.2
100 West. Michigan 0.0
5.7
5.7

160-119-143
6-6
-4.2
101 Colorado State -1.4
5.1
6.5

90-81-127
3-9
-4.4
102 Troy -0.2
5.7
5.9

140-152-161
6-5
-4.7
103 Florida Atlantic -0.6
4.9
5.5

130-99-186
4-7
-4.8
104 Wyoming -0.8
5.0
5.8

90-70-248
3-9
-4.9
105 Louis.-Monroe -0.9
4.8
5.7

120-110-202
5-7
-5.2
106 Arkansas State -0.2
5.7
5.9

130-161-217
4-8
-5.3
107 North Texas -0.3
5.6
5.9

140-160-202
3-9
-5.3
108 Memphis -1.8
4.8
6.6

80-171-123
1-11
-5.5
109 UNLV -2.1
4.4
6.5

70-127-146
2-10
-5.6
110 West. Kentucky -1.2
4.8
6.0

110-152-186
2-10
-5.7
111 Louis.-Lafayette -0.9
5.0
5.9

110-152-217
3-9
-5.7
112 Mid. Tennessee 0.2
5.2
5.0

180-161-249
5-6
-5.7
113 Ball State -1.0
4.9
5.9

150-134-214
4-8
-6.0
114 San Jose State -1.4
5.0
6.4

90-160-235
1-11
-6.3
115 East. Michigan -2.3
5.0
7.3

100-166-143
2-10
-6.4
116 Buffalo -0.7
4.2
4.9

100-189-291
2-10
-6.5
117 Bowling Green -1.8
4.3
6.1

100-109-274
2-10
-6.6
118 New Mexico St. -2.5
4.3
6.8

110-204-123
2-10
-6.9
119 New Mexico -2.4
4.0
6.4

90-127-235
1-11
-6.9
120 Akron -2.0
4.3
6.3

130-274-166
1-11
-7.6

Sunday, November 28, 2010

YPPSYS 2010 College Football Game Prediction Results for Division I-A FBS -- Week 13 (Starting Tuesday, November 23, 2010)

YPPSYS 2010 College Football Game Prediction Results for Division I-A FBS -- Week 13 (Starting Tuesday, November 23, 2010)

Going into the 12th college football weekend we were 526-166 in calling the game winner and 289-295-19 against the betting spread.


Past results are no guarantee of future performance.
Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware). We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.


We put this out too late for the Tuesday game. 


Thursday, November 25, 2010
HAPPY THANKSGIVING DAY

Texas was the underdog at home by 3 points.
We called it: 30-27 for the Longhorns.
Result: The Longhorns lost, 24-17.
This season we are now 526-167 in calling the winner and 289-296-18 against the spread (betting line).

Friday, November 26, 2010

Louisville was favored on the road against Rutgers by 3 points.
We called it: 24-20 for Louisville.
Result: The Cardinals became bowl-eligible with a 40-13 thrashing of Rutgers.
This season we are now 527-167 in calling the winner and 290-296-18 against the spread (betting line).

Ohio was favored on the road at Kent State by 3.5 points.
We called it: 24-20 for Ohio.
Result: The Bobcats (8-4) left Kent, Ohio with their tail between their legs, losing inexplicably 28-6 to the Golden Flashes (5-7).
This season we are now 527-168 in calling the winner and 290-297-18 against the spread (betting line).

Pittsburgh was favored at home over West Virginia 2.5 points.
We called it: 24-20 for Pittsburgh.
Result: The Mountaineers throttled the Panthers 35-10. This leaves the Big East in a crowded position at the top such that UConn, if it beats Cincinnati and South Florida in its remaining games, will get an automatic BCS bid, because it has the tiebreaker wins against West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
This season we are now 527-169 in calling the winner and 290-298-18 against the spread (betting line).

Northern Illinois was favored on the road against Eastern Michigan by 23.5 points.
We called it: 49-21 for the Huskies.
Result: One team that higher-ranked conferences are going to try to avoid in a bowl game is Northern Illinois, which in the last part of the season has taken to pounding their opponents mercilessly, as the Huskies beat Eastern Michigan 71-3, putting up 646 yards total offense, 544 of those rushing on a 15.5 average per carry.
This season we are now 528-169 in calling the winner and 291-298-18 against the spread (betting line).

SMU at East Carolina is seen as even.
We called it: 44-38 for SMU.
Result: The Mustangs almost gave the game away by permitting two TDs in the last 5 minutes of regulation but won 45-38 in overtime to clinch their place in the Conference USA championship game against either UCF or Southern Miss.
This season we are now 529-169 in calling the winner and 292-298-18 against the spread (betting line). 

Western Michigan was favored on the road against Bowling Green by 6.5 points.
We called it: 31-21 for Western Michigan.
Result: The Broncos had no trouble with the Falcons, leading 41-7 after three quarters and that is the way the game ended.
This season we are now 530-169 in calling the winner and 293-298-18 against the spread (betting line).

Buffalo was favored on the road against Akron by 1 point.
We called it: 17-16 for Akron.
Result: The Zips won 22-14 to avoid going winless this season.
This season we are now 531-169 in calling the winner and 294-298-18 against the spread (betting line).

Toledo was favored at home over Central Michigan by 4 points.
We called it: 31-21 for Toledo.
Result: The Rockets beat the Chippewas 42-31.
This season we are now 532-169 in calling the winner and 295-298-18 against the spread (betting line). 

Alabama was favored at home over Auburn by 5 points.
We called it: 31-24 for Alabama.
Result: Few people dreamed of a Tigers win after falling behind 24-0 in the first half against Nick Saban's defending national champions, but Cam Newton and Auburn did, pulling off a comeback for the ages and winning 28-27 on the Crimson Tide home field in an unbelievable game. Fantastic football on both sides as the Auburn defense did a fantastic job in the second half. As for the Auburn offense, do you have any doubt who will win the Heisman Trophy? We do not, as Cam Newton engraved his name on that trophy with this game.
This season we are now 532-170 in calling the winner and 295-299-18 against the spread (betting line).
 
Nebraska was favored at home over Colorado by 17.5 points.
We called it: 17-16 for Nebraska.
Result: The Huskers awakened from their doldrums in spite of starting quarterback Taylor Martinez being out of the game due to injuries. Nebraska was led by backup quarterback Cody Green, who completed 9 of 12 passes for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns, and running back Rex Burkhead, who ran for 1 TD on 101 yards rushing and threw for two more TDs on two passes, as the Cornhuskers won 45-17 and the Big Red wrapped up the North Division title in the Big 12 Conference. Interceptions by DeJon Gomes and Eric Hagg were the gamebreakers. NU was penalized 8 times for 79 yards and Colorado 6 times for 55 yards as the refs kept their flags in the acceptable zone. The Huskers will play in Texas again next week in the Big 12 Championship game, surely against Oklahoma -- a classic OU-NU game to finish out the Husker membership in the Big 12. Fantastic! Who cares about the confused BCS?
This season we are now 533-170 in calling the winner and 295-300-18 against the spread (betting line).

Arizona State was favored at home over UCLA by 12.5 points.
We called it: 31-21 for the Sun Devils.
Result: Arizona State put up 595 yards total offense to win 55-34.
This season we are now 534-170 in calling the winner and 295-301-18 against the spread (betting line).

Tulsa was favored at home over Southern Miss by 3.5 points.
We called it: 38-35 for Southern Miss.
Result: The Golden Hurricane won a wild one 56-50 as both teams combined for 1197 yards total offense.
This season we are now 534-171 in calling the winner and 295-302-18 against the spread (betting line).

Oregon was favored at home over Arizona by 19.5 points.
We called it: 27-24 for Oregon.
Result: The Ducks pulled away to win 48-29 after trailing 19-14 at the half. You have to make the right adjustments at intermission and Arizona did not.
This season we are now 535-171 in calling the winner and 296-302-18 against the spread (betting line).

Boise State was favored on the road against Nevada by 14 points.
We called it: 48-21 for Boise State.
Result: The Broncos led 24-7 at the half and then self-destructed, missing an easy field goal to win in regulation and then another field goal in overtime to lose 34-31 to the Wolf pack. It was not meant to be. It's a shame for this exceptional team who did not come through when they had to, but that is what distinguishes greatness. Boise State continues to have sensational yards per play stats, despite this stupid loss.
This season we are now 535-172 in calling the winner and 296-303-18 against the spread (betting line).

Saturday, November 27

Ohio State was favored at home over Michigan by 17 points.
We called it: 41-21 for Ohio State
Result: The Buckeyes won 37-7 as the Wolverines were no match.
This season we are now 536-172 in calling the winner and 297-303-18 against the spread (betting line).

Michigan State was favored on the road against Penn State by 1 point.
We called it:  30-27 for Penn State.
Result: The Nittany Lions rallied from a 21-3 deficit in the 4th quarter but it was not enough as the Spartans were lucky to escape with a 28-22 victory in a game in which Penn State outgained them 396 to 331 yards total offense.
This season we are now 536-173 in calling the winner and 297-304-18 against the spread (betting line).

Virginia Tech was favored at home over Virginia by 23.5 points.
We called it: 38-14 for Virginia Tech.
Result: The Cavaliers were no match for the Hokies, as Virginia Tech won 37-7.
This season we are now 537-173 in calling the winner and 298-304-18 against the spread (betting line).

Connecticut was favored at home over Cincinnati by 1 point.
We called it: 34-31 for Connecticut.
Result: The Huskies rolled over the Bearcats 38-17 with one game now separating them from an automatic BCS bowl bid. Did you say Connecticut?
This season we are now 538-173 in calling the winner and 299-304-18 against the spread (betting line).

Syracuse was favored at home over Boston College by 3 points.
We called it: 17-10 for Syracuse.
Result: The Eagles upended the Orange 16-7 and won their 5th straight, permitting Syracuse only 236 total yards.
This season we are now 538-174 in calling the winner and 299-305-18 against the spread (betting line).

UCF was favored on the road against Memphis by 25.5 points.
We called it: 41-14 for UCF
Result:The Knights permitted a last-minute TD to the Tigers to win 37-17.
This season we are now 539-174 in calling the winner and 299-306-18 against the spread (betting line).

Marshall was favored at home over Tulane by 9.5 points.
We called it: 31-21 for Marshall.
Result: The Thundering Herd won 38-23.
This season we are now 540-174 in calling the winner and 300-306-18 against the spread (betting line).

Miami of Florida was favored at home over South Florida by 12 points.
We called it: 31-17 for the Hurricanes.
Result: The Bulls beat Miami of Florida in overtime 23-20.
This season we are now 540-175 in calling the winner and 300-307-18 against the spread (betting line).

Purdue was favored at home over Indiana by 3 points.
We called it: 37-21 for Purdue.
Result: The Hoosiers won 34-31 in overtime.
This season we are now 540-176 in calling the winner and 300-308-18 against the spread (betting line).

Tennessee was favored at home over Kentucky by 3 points.
We called it: 34-30 for the Vols.
Result: The Vols became bowl eligible with a 24-14 win over Kentucky.
This season we are now 541-176 in calling the winner and 301-308-18 against the spread (betting line).

Missouri was favored at a neutral location (Kansas City) over Kansas by 25 points.
We called it: 44-14 for Missouri.
Result: The Tigers won 35-7.
This season we are now 542-176 in calling the winner and 302-308-18 against the spread (betting line).


UAB was favored on the road against Rice by 3 points.
We called it: 41-35 for UAB.
Result: The Owls won 28-23.
This season we are now 542-177 in calling the winner and 302-309-18 against the spread (betting line).


Hawaii was favored on the road against New Mexico State by 27 points.
We called it: 56-7 for Hawaii.
Result: Get this. Last year now senior Alex Green ran for 453 yards -- TOTAL -- for the season, in 13 games. This year he had 705 yards in 11 games going into the New Mexico game, which Hawaii won 59-24, as Green gained 327 yards on 19 rushes for 3 touchdowns, while QB Bryant Moniz completed 21 of 32 passes for 315 yards and 4 TDs with 1 interception.
This season we are now 543-177 in calling the winner and 303-309-18 against the spread (betting line).

Wisconsin was favored at home over Northwestern by 22.5 points.
We called it: 49-14 for Wisconsin.
Result: The Badger juggernaut crushed the Wildcats 70-23, which was the score already after 3 quarters.This season we are now 544-177 in calling the winner and 304-309-18 against the spread (betting line).

Utah was favored at home over BYU by 9.5 points.
We called it:  34-20 for the Utes.
Result: The Utes scored 17 4th quarter points to win 17-16.This season we are now 545-177 in calling the winner and 304-310-18 against the spread (betting line). 

Iowa was favored on the road against Minnesota by 15.5 points.
We called it: 31-17 for the Hawkeyes.
Result: The Hawkeyes lost 27-24 to the 3-9 Golden Gophers.
This season we are now 545-177 in calling the winner and 304-310-18 against the spread (betting line).


North Carolina was favored on the road against Duke by 9.5 points.
We called it: 38-17 for the Tar Heels.
Result: The Tar Heels won 24-19.
This season we are now 546-177 in calling the winner and 304-311-18 against the spread (betting line).

Florida State was favored at home over Florida by 2 points.
We called it: 30-27 for Florida. This looks potentially like one of the most interesting games this week.
Result: The Seminoles humbled the Gators 31-7. 
This season we are now 546-178 in calling the winner and 304-312-18 against the spread (betting line).

Florida International was favored at home over Arkansas State by 5 points.
We called it: 38-28 for FIU.
Result: The Golden Panthers beat the Red Wolves 31-24. 
This season we are now 547-178 in calling the winner and 305-312-18 against the spread (betting line).

TCU was favored on the road against New Mexico by 44.5 points.
We called it: 59-0. The top and the bottom of FBS meet. Get out the calculators.
Result: The Horned Frogs won 66-17. 
This season we are now 548-178 in calling the winner and 306-312-18 against the spread (betting line).

Arkansas was favored at home over LSU by 3.5 points.
We called it: 31-17 for Arkansas. LSU shows time and again that tenacious defense (and sometimes a little luck) wins ball games, but it is difficult to see LSU beating the strong offense of the Razorbacks.
Result: The Razorbacks won 31-23.
This season we are now 549-178 in calling the winner and 307-312-18 against the spread (betting line).

Kansas State was favored on the road against North Texas by 14 points.
We called it: 38-17 for Kansas State.
Result: The Wildcats must have taken this game too lightly as they struggled to win 49-41.
This season we are now 550-178 in calling the winner and 307-313-18 against the spread (betting line).

North Carolina State was favored on the road against Maryland by 3 points.
We called it: 31-24 for North Carolina State.
Result: The Terrapins held on to win 38-31.
This season we are now 550-179 in calling the winner and 307-314-18 against the spread (betting line).

California was favored at home by 7 points over Washington.
We called it: 34-24 for the Golden Bears.
Result: The Huskies denied Cal bowl eligibility by winning 16-13.
This season we are now 550-180 in calling the winner and 307-315-18 against the spread (betting line).

Middle Tennessee State was favored at home over Florida Atlantic by 4.5 points.
We called it: 30-27 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: The Blue Raiders won 38-14.
This season we are now 550-181 in calling the winner and 307-316-18 against the spread (betting line).

Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) was favored at home over Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL) by 7 points.
We called it: 34-24 for ULM.
Result: The Ragin' Cajuns beat the Warhawks 23-22.
This season we are now 550-182 in calling the winner and 307-317-18 against the spread (betting line).

Troy State was favored at home over Western Kentucky by 13.5 points.
We called it: 34-31 for Troy.
Result: Troy won 28-14 with 2 unanswered TDs in the 4th quarter.
This season we are now 551-182 in calling the winner and 307-318-18 against the spread (betting line).

South Carolina was favored on the road against Clemson by 2.5 points.
We called it: 17-16 for Clemson.
Result: The Gamecocks won 29-7.
This season we are now 551-183 in calling the winner and 307-319-18 against the spread (betting line).
Mississippi State was favored on the road against Mississippi by  2.5 points.
We called it: 31-30 for Mississippi.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Rebels 31-23.
This season we are now 551-184 in calling the winner and 307-320-18 against the spread (betting line).

Stanford was favored at home against Oregon State by 14 points.
We called it: 41-24 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal shut out the Beavers 38-0.
This season we are now 552-184 in calling the winner and 308-320-18 against the spread (betting line).

Vanderbilt was favored at home over Wake Forest by 6 points.
We called it: 27-20 for Vanderbilt.
Result: The Demon Deacons beat the Commodores 34-13.
This season we are now 552-185 in calling the winner and 308-321-18 against the spread (betting line).
Georgia was favored at home over Georgia Tech by 12 points.
We called it: 38-24 for Georgia. The Bulldogs have to win this game to become bowl eligible.
Result: Georgia beat the Yellow Jackets 42-34.
This season we are now 553-185 in calling the winner and 308-322-18 against the spread (betting line).
Oklahoma was favored at home over Oklahoma State by 2.5 points.
We called it: 48-41 for Oklahoma.
Result: The Sooners won 47-41.
This season we are now 554-185 in calling the winner and 309-322-18 against the spread (betting line).
San Diego State was favored on the road against UNLV by 24 points.
We called it: 2
Result: The Aztecs beat the Rebels 48-14.
This season we are now 555-185 in calling the winner and 310-322-18 against the spread (betting line).

Louisiana Tech was favored on the road against San Jose State by 11 points.
We called it: 41-31 for Louisiana Tech.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Spartans 45-38.
This season we are now 556-185 in calling the winner and 311-322-18 against the spread (betting line).
USC was favored at home over Notre Dame by 7 points.
We called it: 34-24 for the Trojans. The Fighting Irish will be better next year.
Result: The Fighting Irish won 20-16.
This season we are now 556-186 in calling the winner and 311-323-18 against the spread (betting line).

Texas Tech was favored at home over Houston by 9 points.
We called it: 31-27 for Texas Tech.  A Houston win would make them bowl-eligible and it is not an impossibility.
Result: Texas Tech won 35-20.
This season we are now 557-186 in calling the winner and 311-324-18 against the spread (betting line).

Fresno State was favored at home over Idaho by 11 points.
We called it: 44-27 for Fresno.
Result: The Bulldogs scored a TD with 18 seconds left to win 23-20.
This season we are now 558-186 in calling the winner and 311-325-18 against the spread (betting line).

Going into the 12th college football weekend we were 526-166 in calling the game winner and 289-295-19 against the betting spread. We finished the week 32-20 in calling the winner and 22-30-1 against the spread and now 558-186 in calling the winner and 311-325-18 against the spread.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois: THAT'S COACHING!

Take a look at this bio of head football coach Jerry Kill at the Northern Illinois Official Athletic Site.

This is one man who would be high on our list for Head Coach of the Year in FBS football.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

YPPSYS 2010 College Football Game Predictions for Division I-A FBS -- Week 13 (Starting Tuesday, November 23, 2010)

YPPSYS 2010 College Football Game Predictions for Division I-A FBS -- Week 13 (Starting Tuesday, November 23, 2010)

Going into the 12th college football weekend  we are 526-166 in calling the game winner and 289-295-19 against the betting spread, with a respective 41-15 and 26-25 record last week.


Past results are no guarantee of future performance.
Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware). We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

We take the so-called betting "line" for any game ("the point spread" between the winning and losing score) from the College Football Prediction Tracker, this week as of Tuesday, November 15, 2010 at 10:06 AM or if unavailable there then from Yahoo Odds at Rivals.com or from the consensus predictions. If we use another source, that is noted next to the game call. The line changes for many games during the week but we do not take that into account in making our prognostications.

We rely on schedule difficulty and NAYPPA, the net average yards per play advantage of any team in total offense as our two main prediction parameters. Almost all calculations are done by hand and all addition in averaging schedule difficulty (rounded to the nearest 10) is done mostly in my head so errors are possible. Check our calculations if you have any doubt. We also make subjective judgments in our prognostications, not always predicting according to the stats and the post-Week 12 YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.

Massey currently calculates a home field advantage of 2.61 points. The Massey Ratings calculate that the average score in 3800 college games this year has been 35.77 to 16.72 points (whether at home or away for the winner) while the average home score -- i.e. only for the home team (including both winning and losing games) -- was a 28.50 - 24.07 on average, so that the total score between two teams was 52+ points and on a neutral field should come out about 26-26. Massey calculates that the team with the higher win percentage wins 71.2% of the time and the team with the larger margin of victory wins. 69.6% of the time.


We put this out too late for the Tuesday game. 


Thursday, November 25, 2010
HAPPY THANKSGIVING DAY

The .... are favored on the road against Texas by 3 points.
We call it: 30-27 for the Longhorns. This game can play a role in determining the South Division conference champion in the Big 12 this year. See all the tiebraker possibilities here. We hope for Oklahoma to win and for Texas to restore Texas honor and to beat the .... That, along with a Husker victory over Colorado would set up a classic Oklahoma vs. Nebraska conference championship, as in days of old. BCS? Who cares. The Huskers already beat the Cowboys during the season. The other South Division team in contention unjustly had a game put in its win column in spite of dirty play ... forget them. The only just matchup is Sooners vs. Huskers.

Friday, November 26, 2010


Louisville is favored on the road against Rutgers by 3 points.
We call it: 24-20 for Louisville

Ohio is favored on the road at Kent State by 3.5 points.
We call it: 24-20 for Ohio.

Pittsburgh is favored at home over West Virginia 2.5 points.
We call it: 24-20 for Pittsburgh.

Northern Illinois is favored on the road against Eastern Michigan by 23.5 points.
We call it: 49-21 for the Huskies, who have emerged as one of the better teams in the country over the past weeks.

SMU at East Carolina is seen as even.
We call it: 44-38 for SMU.

Western Michigan is favored on the road against Bowling Green by 6.5 points.
We call it: 31-21 for Western Michigan.

Buffalo is favored on the road against Akron by 1 point.
We call it: 17-16 for Akron. Two of the worst offenses in FBS football meet. Akron should be playing at its top intensity to avoid going winless this year.

Toledo is favored at home over Central Michigan by 4 points.
We call it: 31-21 for Toledo.

Alabama is favored at home over Auburn by 5 points.
We call it: 31-24 for Alabama. Surely the top game of day. We are great fans of Gus Malzahn's offense but are equally impressed by Nick Saban's disciplined organization. On the Crimson Tide home field, the Tigers will have a very tough job winning with a defense that is not as good as that of Alabama, even though the offense is of course superior, but defense wins football games, especially at the top.

Nebraska is favored at home over Colorado by 17.5 points.
We call it: 17-16 for Nebraska. Starting QB Martinez is injured and Shawn Watson's "Cornflake Offense" is in a shambles, as it was last year as well. The prevailing offensive preparation for games seems to be confusion. Top head coaching means good preparation of teams, correct adjustments during the game, which Nebraska does not do well, and not yelling at players on the sidelines. Except for isolated long gainers, the Huskers average about 2 yards per carry rushing. The Buffs held Iowa State to minus 6 yards rushing. If Nebraska gains more than 100 net yards rushing in this game it will be a miracle. And they have no one who can throw the ball, so things look bleak. Maybe Nebraska's offensive coordination should spend about a year studying what Malzahn does at Auburn to learn how to run a modern offense, with a detour also to study Saban at Alabama to learn general disciplined team organization. Malzahn is directly on the sideline so he has an integral feel for the game at ground level and is not in a distant stadium box high above the stadium playing intellectual games with X's and O's. Against the .... last week, the Big Red did not score a single touchdown -- inexcusable. The Huskers will be lucky to win against the Buffs and the game outcome will probably be decided by the Cornhusker defense. As long as the present offensive coordination at Nebraska is maintained, the Huskers will never achieve greatness again.

Arizona State is favored at home over UCLA by 12.5 points.
We call it: 31-21 for the Sun Devils.

Tulsa is favored at home over Southern Miss by 3.5 points.
We call it: 38-35 for Southern Miss. We go with the team with the better defense.


Oregon is favored at home over Arizona by 19.5 points.
We call it: 27-24 for Oregon. In losing 15-13, Cal showed the tactics that are needed to slow down the Oregon offense. Arizona lost 44-41 in 2 overtimes on its home field last year, as the game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation time.

Boise State is favored on the road against Nevada by 14 points.
We call it: 48-21 for Boise State. Last year Nevada put up a good battle before losing 44-33. Both teams have equivalently strong offenses yardage-wise but Boise State has an enormous per game 150-yard advantage on defense over the Wolf Pack. Still, the Broncos have to play well. This game is not a gimme.

Saturday, November 27

Ohio State is favored at home over Michigan by 17 points.
We call it: 41-21 for Ohio State. As good as some of the offensive players for the Wolverines are, you can't get to the top without a decent defense, and the Buckeyes have one, whereas Michigan does not. Generally, we are not fans of the coaching style currently installed at Michigan, which we think is a bad fit for such a great academic institution.

Michigan State is favored on the road against Penn State by 1 point.
We call it:  30-27 for Penn State. On paper, the Spartans should win by about 1 TD, but never under-estimate the Nittany Lions at home.

Virginia Tech is favored at home over Virginia by 23.5 points.
We call it: 38-14 for Virginia Tech. When the season started, we picked the Hokies at No. 2 in the country and they have been playing like that the last 9 games after two opening season losses (the first was to Boise State and they were probably so perplexed they lost the next one as well). We think Virginia will get better and better under now first year head coach Mike London, but they are not that far yet, in spite of their upset victory over the Hurricanes.

Connecticut is favored at home over Cincinnati by 1 point.
We call it: 34-31 for Connecticut. After a desolate 26-0 loss to Louisville the improving Huskies have won 3 straight against tough opposition (West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, all teams with winning records), whereas Cincinnati already lost dismally to West Virginia and Syracuse. The Bearcats have been awful at times this year, but beat Louisville 35-27 in a comparative score and their offense got untracked last week in a 69-38 thumping of Rutgers, against whom UConn lost 24-27. So, go figure. Nothing in this game would be a surprise.

Syracuse is favored at home over Boston College by 3 points.
We call it: 17-10 for Syracuse.

UCF is favored on the road against Memphis by 25.5 points.
We call it: 41-14 for UCF

Marshall is favored at home over Tulane by 9.5 points.
We call it: 31-21 for Marshall.

Miami of Florida is favored at home over South Florida by 12 points.
We call it: 31-17 for the Hurricanes.

Purdue is favored at home over Indiana by 3 points.
We call it: 37-21 for Purdue.

Tennessee is favored at home over Kentucky by 3 points.
We call it: 34-30 for the Vols.

Missouri is favored at a neutral location (Kansas City) over Kansas by 25 points.
We call it: 44-14 for Missouri. Kansas is OK against running teams but not those that can pass.

Hawaii is favored on the road against New Mexico State by 27 points.
We call it: 56-7 for Hawaii. Get out the calculators, as the Warriors face the nation's 95th worst pass defense.

Arkansas is favored at home over LSU by 3.5 points.
We call it: 31-17 for Arkansas. LSU shows time and again that tenacious defense (and sometimes a little luck) wins ball games, but it is difficult to see LSU beating the strong offense of the Razorbacks.

Wisconsin is favored at home over Northwestern by 22.5 points.
We call it: 49-14 for Wisconsin. The Wildcats without injured starting QB Dan Persa have no chance against the rush-strong Badgers.

Utah is favored at home over BYU by 9.5 points.
We call it:  34-20 for the Utes. Utah deflated against TCU and Notre Dame and BYU is on the upswing (but against very weak opposition) after a terrible start. The Utes still look like the much stronger team on paper.

Florida State is favored at home over Florida by 2 points.
We call it: 30-27 for Florida. This looks potentially like one of the most interesting games this week.

North Carolina State is favored on the road against Maryland by 3 points.
We call it: 31-24 for North Carolina State.

Iowa is favored on the road against Minnesota by 15.5 points.
We call it: 31-17 for the Hawkeyes. If Iowa had a top offense, they would be undefeated, so that even against much weaker teams, you can not expect big wins.

California is favored at home by 7 points over Washington.
We call it: 34-24 for the Golden Bears. Cal ranks 16th nationally in defense and 88th in offense. Washington is 90th in defense and 85th in offense.

North Carolina is favored on the road against Duke by 9.5 points.
We call it: 38-17 for the Tar Heels.

UAB is favored on the road against Rice by 3 points.
We call it: 41-35 for UAB. In total defense, Rice ranks 116th in FBS and UAB 86th. In total offense UAB ranks 30th and Rice 63rd.

Florida International is favored at home over Arkansas State by 5 points.
We call it: 38-28 for FIU.

Middle Tennessee State is favored at home over Florida Atlantic by 4.5 points.
We call it: 30-27 for Florida Atlantic.

Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) is favored at home over Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL) by 7 points.
We call it: 34-24 for ULM.

Troy State is favored at home over Western Kentucky by 13.5 points.
We call it: 34-31 for Troy.

TCU is favored on the road against New Mexico by 44.5 points.
We call it: 59-0. The top and the bottom of FBS meet. Get out the calculators.

Kansas State is favored on the road against North Texas by 14 points.
We call it: 38-17 for Kansas State. The Wildcats get a breather from big 12 play. This is smart scheduling, just in case they needed this game to become bowl eligible, but Kansas State already is that.

South Carolina is favored on the road against Clemson by 2.5 points.
We call it: 17-16 for Clemson. Clemson has lost no game by more than 9 and lost by only 3 points to Auburn on the road 27-24, as their defense has permitted only 20 TDs this season. South Carolina lost at Auburn 35-27. The Gamecocks have a better offense but a weaker defense and should have trouble winning this game.

Mississippi State is favored on the road against Mississippi by  2.5 points.
We call it: 31-30 for Mississippi.

Stanford is favored at home against Oregon State by 14 points.
We call it: 41-24 for Stanford. Oregon State is a 5-5 team that really nobody wants to play.The Beavers weakness is their defense, but then again, they have played one of the five toughest schedules in the country this season, a stat that also applies to Stanford. The Cardinal should prevail because of their superior offense, but they can not let down their guard here against a team that has 2 wins against ranked teams and two losses by narrow margins of 37-24 to Boise State (they were outgained 469 to 237 yards) and 30-21 to TCU (they were outgained by Horned Frogs 453 to 255 yards). In beating the Trojans last week 36-7, they limited the Trojan QB duo of Barkley and Mustain to 3.8 yards per pass play, which makes you wonder what kind of cupcake offense USC is running. But than again, maybe the Beaver pass defense did it. If Oregon State closes out the season with losses to Stanford and Oregon, they will be a far better team than most teams that make bowl eligibility. We are rooting for our law school alma mater Stanford to beat the Beavers this wekkend, but for the Beavers to beat the Ducks in their final game, which for their defense should be a better matchup.

Vanderbilt is favored at home over Wake Forest by 6 points.
We call it: 27-20 for Vanderbilt.

Georgia is favored at home over Georgia Tech by 12 points.
We call it: 38-24 for Georgia. The Bulldogs have to win this game to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma is favored at home over Oklahoma State by 2.5 points.
We call it: 48-41 for Oklahoma. This game is critical to determine the South Division conference champion in the Big 12 this year. See all the tiebraker possibilities here. We hope for Oklahoma to win here and for Texas to restore Texas honor and to beat the .... That, along with a Husker victory over Colorado would set up a classic Oklahoma vs. Nebraska conference championship, as in days of old. BCS? Who cares. The Huskers already beat the Cowboys during the season. The other team in contention unjustly had a game put in its win column in spite of dirty play .... forget them. The only just matchup is Sooners vs. Huskers. Cross your fingers!

San Diego State is favored on the road against UNLV by 24 points.
We call it: 2

Louisiana Tech is favored on the road against San Jose State by 11 points.
We call it: 41-31 for Louisiana Tech.

USC is favored at home over Notre Dame by 7 points.
We call it: 34-24 for the Trojans. The Fighting Irish will be better next year.

Texas Tech is favored at home over Houston by 9 points.
We call it: 31-27 for Texas Tech.  A Houston win would make them bowl-eligible and it is not an impossibility.

Fresno State is favored at home over Idaho by 11 points.
We call it: 44-27 for Fresno.

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