I haven't played a round yet this year and here we are already, at the
2011 Masters Tournament where
Rory McIlroy and
Alvaro Quiros are tied after the first round of play at seven under par each.
The Daily News ran article titled
The Masters: Tiger Woods optimistic after rescuing 1st round at Augusta, now he needs putts to fall.
I am not in the crowd of people who think Tiger Woods may win this tournament.
Tiger's top form has not (yet) returned and several major statistics are down significantly, especially birdie average and greens in regulation.
Using stats available at the official
TigerWoods.com pages, I have compiled the following lists, which show a clear drop in driving distance, less accuracy on approaches and marginally diminished putting success:
Tiger Woods -- Season Averages
Driving Distance in Yards and Distance to Hole After the Drive (stats only starting 2008)
(the distance to the hole after the drive makes a big difference since the closer the player is to the hole the closer his approach on average is to the hole on the green, as the stats at Tiger's home pages show)
1997 294.8 yards per drive
1998 296.3
1999 293.1
2000 298.0
2001 297.6
2002 293.3
2003 299.5
2004 301.9
2005 316.1
2006 306.4
2007 302.4
2008 294.3 -- 175.1 yards from the hole
2009 298.4 -- 173.8
2010 295.8 -- 177.3
2011 289.6 -- 183.9
This year Tiger's approaches to the green from all distances in 2011 are something like 4 feet on average further from the pin than in 2010. This has an effect on greens in regulation and birdie average as well.
Tiger Woods -- Season Averages
Birdie Average and
Greens in Regulation (GIR)
1997 4.25 birdies per round --
70.35% GIR
(won the Masters)
1998 3.85 --
67.55%
1999 4.46 --
75.7% (won PGA Championship)
2000 4.92 -- 75.15% (won U.S. Open, British Open, PGA Championship, then the Masters in 2001)
2001 4.30 --
76.92% (won the Masters)
2002
4.47 --
73.96% (won the Masters, U.S. Open)
2003 4.26 --
68.63%
2004 4.38 --
66.90%
2005
4.57 -- 69.89%
(won the Masters, British Open)
2006
4.65 --
74.15% (won British Open, PGA Championship)
2007 4.03
-- 71.02% (won PGA Championship)
2008 4.10 --
71.39% (won U.S. Open)
2009 4.15 --
68.46%
2010
3.78 --
64.07%
2011
3.50 --
67-59%
Tiger Woods -- Season Averages
Putting Average (Putts per Hole)
1997 1.776 putts per hole
1998 1.805
1999 1.761
2000 1.717
2001 1.775
2002 1.766
2003 1.732
2004 1.724
2005 1.731
2006 1.756
2007 1.733
2008 1.735
2009 1.743
2010 1.751
2011 1.788
I have no idea what aspects of his game he is currently training most, but I worry that the top statistic on his list is "3-Putt Avoidance", which is a defensive attitude toward putting not conducive to winning tournaments where you have to make birdies. When you are lipping a lot of putts like Tiger is, you are playing it too safe. In his best seasons, Tiger had his worst 3-putt avoidance stats. He was going for the win. To be a champion, you can not play not to lose, you have to play to win, ONLY.