Thursday, September 29, 2011

Sports Illustrated College Football Week 5 Video Preview



See College Football Week 5 preview - Video - SI.com

Soccer in Germany: Fußball in Deutschland: To Understand America or Germany, You Have to Understand Sports

If you really want to understand America, you have understand American sports.

Similarly, if you really want to understand Germany, you have to understand German soccer (association football). See Football in Germany and Fußball in Deutschland.

This post was motivated by the fact that I looked at the online deal of the day at the German electronics store ProMarkt (promarkt.de) where they had been selling the EA Sports FIFA 12 software for 49 Euros.

Sold out.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

NCAA Focus Totally Failed in Playing Policeman for "Infractions" by Student-Athletes

Why is this news?

The Washington Post carries an article on Ex-Tennessee assistant funded flight for prized recruit.

Coaches and administrators are earning millions -- profiting from college football.

College athletic conferences are realigning to earn even more millions via TV and other monetary income sources -- profiting from college football.

And yet, the NCAA spends all of its time making sure somebody does not pay for the airfare of an apparently needy football recruit and his mother to visit a college trying to recruit him.

Why should a well-to-do recruit be able to fly wherever he wants and inspect the possible schools of his choice -- and an indigent one not?

Do you understand it?

I do not.

Rather I ask, why is the NCAA not issuing salary ceilings for coaches and administrators?

Now, THAT would be one way to fill the athletic coffers of the universities and colleges, which are being depleted by outrageous remuneration for everyone but the players, who are the objects of NCAA "enforcement".

Or how about fixing the salaries of athletic directors and coaches -- retroactively -- by the number of wins of their football team, or, even better, by their ranking? That would improve hiring practices fast.

If ever an organization has lost sight of its objectives, the NCAA is it.

College Football Predictions Week 5 2011 FBS by SportPundit

 College Football Predictions Week 5 2011 FBS by SportPundit

In Week 4, SportPundit was 47-13 in calling the winner and 21-25-2 against the spread. 
In Week 3, SportPundit was 44-18 in calling the winner and 26-19-3 against the spread.
In Week 2, SportPundit was 57-8 in calling the winner and 24-19-1 against the spread.
In Week 1, SportPundit was 65-13 in calling the winner and 20-18-2 against the spread. 

After week 4,
our season stats are 213-52 in calling the winner and 91-81-8 against the spread. 
Caveat emptor. Buyer beware! We make no guarantees or warranties of accuracy and we disclaim any and all liability for anyone using our stats, rankings and ratings, and/or predictions for any purpose! We do this in good fun. May the best team win.
The spread -- unless linked for any game to another source -- is taken from the "line" found at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Monday, September 26, 2011, 10:13 AM. That line is updated during the week, often changing point spreads, but we pay no attention to that, unless a game has no line initially, in which case we take the later posted line.

The SportPundit college football game predictions 
for Week 5 2011 in FBS play are as follows:

Thursday, September 29, 2011
  • Houston (4-0) is favored on the road by 15.5 points over UTEP (2-2) in the Sun Bowl. As written by Fred Albers, Sports Director at KTSM:
"Houston ranks first nationally in passing offense (446.3 ypg). The Cougars also rank in the top-20 nationally in total offense (third, 585.0 ypg), net punting (third, 44.1 ypg), scoring offense (11th, 44.3 ypg) and passing efficiency (13th, 169.7). Keenum ranks first nationally in total offense (388.0 ypg) and eighth in passing efficiency (177.1). Sammy Brown also ranks first nationally in tackles for loss (2.38)."

Albers writes further, however:
"The Miners are 6-0 in Conference USA home openers with wins over Houston in 2005 (44-41 in double overtime), SMU in 2006 (24-21), Tulsa in 2007 (48-47), UCF in 2008 (58-13), Houston in 2009 (58-41) and Memphis in 2010 (16-13)."
Calling the games on Thursday and Friday correctly can be difficult because it seems in the past that weak teams appear to play better when they play in front of live television broadcasts and are "the only game in town" so to speak. Ordinarily, the SportPundit rankings after Week 4 of play, in which 1 point of rating difference is equal to 7 points on the scoreboard, would favor Houston by 22 points minus the home field advantage (3 points), or a 19-point spread. We now invoke what we might call the Thursday viz. Friday night TV factor and say that is worth about a touchdown to the home team. SportPundit thus calls it: 38-26 for Houston.
  • Pittsburgh (2-2) is favored at home by 3 points over South Florida (4-0)
    The SportPundit rankings and ratings give South Florida a higher rating than either Notre Dame or Iowa, teams that narrowly beat the Panthers the last two weeks, and would normally favor the Bulls by 15 points, minus the home field advantage, or 12 points total. If we again invoke the Thursday viz. Friday night TV factor and say that is worth about a touchdown to the home team, this would still give the game to South Florida by 5 points.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 28-23 for South Florida.

Friday, September 30, 2011
  • BYU (2-2) is favored at home by 13.5 points over Utah State (1-2). Last year BYU lost to the Aggies 31-16 on the road. Every day in college football is different. The Aggies nearly knocked off defending champion Auburn in their first game and then last week lost in overtime to unheralded Colorado State, at home no less, because of 4 turnovers, thus causing us to have to juggle the otherwise excellent Utah State stats in our rankings and ratings. BYU has played some strong teams this year, but has scored maximally 24 points whereas Utah State has scored no less than 34 points, even in losing twice. How does BYU expect to gain the points to match the Aggie offense? Certainly a 13.5 point spread seems excessive, even if we give BYU a Friday night TV factor and say that is worth about a touchdown to the home team. We still see this game as being a tough win for BYU, if at all, because they have no offense to speak of.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 28-27 for BYU.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
  • Michigan (4-0) is favored at home by 19.5 points over Minnesota (1-3. Our ratings put the Wolverines at 26 points better plus the home field advantage makes 29. How do the Golden Gophers expect to stop Denard Robinson when they have lost to such weak teams as New Mexico State and FCS North Dakota State last week. Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill has been suffering from recent medical problems, making Minnesota coaching continuity difficult.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 51-13 for Michigan.
  • Rutgers (2-1) is favored on the road by 1 point over Syracuse (3-1).  The SportPundit rankings and ratings currently give both teams the same rating. Put their storied football teams into the bin and you have a difficult predictive decision. A win-win would be a tie. Maybe an overtime game?
    SportPundit thus calls it: 23-20 for Syracuse.
  • Texas A&M (2-1) is favored by 3 points over Arkansas (3-1) at Cowboy Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Aggies lost 30-29 last week to an Oklahoma State team that in 2010 lost only to Nebraska and Oklahoma, so we know that Texas A&M is very strong, despite losing that game. Is Arkansas stronger than Oklahoma State? Our stats make the Cowboys at least 8 points better than the Razorbacks, so this game should go to Texas A&M. Recall that Arkansas won last year 24-17 in Cowboys Stadium, but then they had Ryan Mallett at QB and he threw 3 TDs in the first half, while the Razorbacks had to hold on to win in the 2nd half.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-24 for Texas A&M.
  • Army (1-3) is favored at home by 11 points over Tulane (2-2). Last year Army on the road beat Tulane 41-23, rushing for 312 yards. Last week Duke beat the Green Wave through the air, but the Black Knights are a strictly rushing team. Tulane ranks 93rd in passing defense nationally but 45th in rushing defense this season. UAB was destroyed by Tulane 49-10 on its home field and gained only 48 net yards rushing. Will the strong rushing defense give the Green Wave the edge this year? Our stats favor Tulane by 6 minus the home field advantage.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 30-27 for Tulane.
  • Temple (3-1) is favored at home by 5.5 points over Toledo (1-3). The Owls followed a near upset of Penn State 14-10 with a crushing 38-7 road victory over a decent Maryland Terrapins team that has about the same rating and ranking at SportPundit as the Rockets. Our stats favor Temple by 8 plus the home field advantage of 3, makes 11.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-20 for Temple.
  • Navy  (2-1) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Air Force (2-1). The Falcons rank 1st in the nation rushing and the Midshipmen 4th (Army is 3rd). In terms of rushing defense, Army is 88th, Air Force is 97th, and Navy is 101st. Navy gave South Carolina a battle last week before losing 24-21. Air Force's best showing is 35-19 loss to TCU.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 41-31 for Navy.
  • South Carolina (4-0) is favored at home by 10.5 points over Auburn (3-1). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Gamecocks by 7 plus the home field advantage of 3 makes 10. The Tigers lost on the road at Clemson 38-24. The adjusted ratings make Clemson 3 points better than South Carolina. The unadjusted ratings would make South Carolina 8 points better than the Tigers. Either way, that would favor South Carolina by 11 or more.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 34-23 for South Carolina.
  • Penn State (3-1) is favored on the road by 16.5 points over Indiana (1-3). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Nittany Lions by 17 minus the Hoosiers' home field advantage. Predicting Penn State games is made difficult by the uncertainty there about their quarterbacks.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-17 for Penn State.
  • Georgia (2-2) is favored at home by 4.5 points over Mississippi State (2-2). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Bulldogs by 8 plus the home field advantage makes 11.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-20 for Georgia.
  • Texas Tech (3-0) is favored on the road by 12 points over Kansas (2-1). The adjusted SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Red Raiders by 8, whereas the unadjusted ratings favor them by 18, minus the home field advantage of the Jayhawks makes it either 5 or 15. This looks like it could be an offensive donnybrook.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 42-32 for Texas Tech.
  • Illinois (4-0) is favored at home by 7 points over Northwestern (2-1). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Illini by 18 plus the home field advantage makes 21. Predicting this game is difficult becaue of the Wildcat quarterback situation, where it is said that Dan Persa could be back at the helm in this game after his Achilles rupture last season. You have to be careful, but the Illini look good this year, Persa or no.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 35-14 for Illinois.
  • Alabama (4-0) is favored on the road by 6 points over Florida (4-0). Both teams rank high in total defense (2nd and 5th respectively) and are nearly equal in total offense (26th and 22nd respectively). Our stats favor the Crimson Tide by 10.5 minus the home field advantage of the Gators makes it 7.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 27-20 for Alabama.
  • LSU (4-0) is favored at home by 27.5 points over Kentucky (2-2). We rank the Tigers higher than their stats because of their quality wins and because of their team speed, but their stats are not the best and they will surely run into trouble against top SEC competition, but the Wildcats do not belong in that category, so this should be an easy win for LSU. The trouble comes next week against Florida, who will get some needed experience against the Crimson Tide this weekend.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 35-7 for LSU.
  • Tennessee (2-1) is favored at home by 27.5 points over Buffalo (1-3). Because of the adjusted and unadjusted rating variants, the spread here is difficult to calculate, but both calculations come in under 27.5 points.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  37-14 for Tennessee.
  • Boston College (1-3) is favored at home by 1.5 points over Wake Forest (2-1). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Demon Deacons by 7 minus the home field advantage. However, the Eagles are often not to be denied in their search for yet another bowl game and the term miracle is often just a breath away at Boston College.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  26-24 for Boston College.
  • Cincinnati (3-1) is favored on the road by 13.5 points over Miami of Ohio (0-3). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Bearcats by 7 minus the home field advantage makes 4. However, the Bearcats have put their offense into gear the last games, so we think the spread could be greater.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  28-13 for Cincinnati.
  • Eastern Michigan (2-2) is favored at home by 6.5 points over Akron (1-3). Both teams have been beaten comparably by Big Ten teams.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-24 for Eastern Michigan.
  • Ohio (3-1) is favored at home by 15.5 points over Kent State (1-3)
    Kent State has virtually no offense while Ohio often lacks consistency.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  27-10 for Ohio.
  • Boise State (3-0) is favored at home by 29 points over Nevada (1-2). After a blowout 69-20 loss in their season opener against Oregon, the Wolf Pack bounced back with a win over San Jose State and 1-point loss to Texas Tech last week, showing considerable improvement in the interim. The Broncos will have a much tougher time than Oregon did.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  44-27 for Boise State.
  • Virginia (2-2) is favored at home by 13 points over Idaho (1-3).
    The Cavaliers disappointed last week.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-13 for Virginia.
  • Ohio State (3-1) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Michigan State (3-1). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Spartans so this might be a very close one.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  21-20 for Michigan State.
  • Colorado (1-3) is favored at home by 4 points over Washington State (2-1). The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate these teams about equal, so the mile-high home field advantage may decide.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  23-17 for Colorado.
  • TCU (3-1) is favored at home by 13.5 points over SMU (3-1) in the State Farm DFW Duel - Battle for the Iron Skillet. Our stats favor TCU by only 4 points plus the home field advantage of 3 makes 7, which seems like very little, so it will be interesting to see how this game actually plays out for a Horned Frogs team in a rebuilding year and a Mustangs squad that is looking for constant improvement under head coach June Jones.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  37-30 for TCU.   
  • Georgia Tech (4-0) is favored on the road by 6 points over North Carolina State (2-2). The Yellow Jackets are putting up some phenomenal offensive stats, averaging 9.4 yards per play this season, ranked 2nd nationally rushing and 62nd (average) passing, while the Wolfpack defense is leaky, giving up 5.7 yards per play this year and ranking 63rd in rushing defense.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  47-14 for Georgia Tech.   
  • Baylor (3-0) is favored on the road by 3 points over Kansas State (3-0). Who expected these two Big 12 teams to be undefeated for this game? Baylor began the year by knocking off TCU and QB Robert Griffin III has more touchdown passes than incompletions (13 to 12 on 70 of 82 passing for a phenomenal 85.4% completion percentage and QB rating of 236.24). Top offense meets tops defense. He will be up against the 10th-ranked passing defense in K-State, and the 7th-best total defense in FBS that helped the Wildcats to down Miami of Florida 28-24 on the road last week. By comparative scores vs. Kent State, K-State is only 4 points weaker than Alabama. The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate the Bears 19 points better than the Wildcats. If we used the Rice game as a basis, Baylor would rate 1.1 rather than 2.2, dropping the margin to 11 scoreboard points, minus the K-State home field advantage of 3. We just do not think that K-State can put up as many points as the Baylor offense will score against them, even if they play top defense.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-23 for Baylor.
  • USC (3-1) is favored at home by 11.5 points over Arizona (1-3). The Wildcats haved lost 8 straight games to FBS opponents and it does not look likely to get better here against the Trojans, who the SportPundit rankings and ratings rate 14 points better, plus the home field advantage of 3 points makes 17. The Arizona passing defense ranks 88th nationally, and run-weak Southern Cal moves via the air, although the blogosphere has harsh criticism of USC quarterback Matt Barkley and Kiffin coaching.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  34-17 for USC.
  • Louisville (2-1) is favored at home by 11 points over Marshall (1-3). The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate the Cardinals 3.5 points better plus the 3 point home field advantage makes it 6 or 7. Louisville head coach Charlie Strong indicates recruits are asking about the future status of the Big East conference, so that universities are under pressure to straighten out their conference alliance quickly to avoid losing top players to schools where the future conference picture is certain.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  24-17 for Louisville.
  • West Virginia (3-1) is favored at home by 21 points over Bowling Green (3-1). The Mountaineers appear to be over-rated as the SportPundit rankings and ratings rate West Virginia only 10 points better than the Falcons, plus the home field advantage makes 13.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  33-20 for West Virginia.
  • Miami of Florida (1-2) is at home vs. FCS Bethune-Cookman (2-1). The Hurricanes were frustrated by their loss to Kansas State and FCS Bethune-Cookman has to deal with the 'Canes wrath.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  52-7 for Miami of Florida.
  • Maryland (1-2) is at home vs. FCS Towson (3-0). After beating Miami of Florida, the Terrapins lost a close one to West Virginia and were then trampled by Temple. The undefeated Towson Tigers, ranked 23 in FCS, are no pushover this year, having beaten a Villanova team 31-10 that Temple beat 42-7, and Temple beat Maryland 38-7. Towson last week beat Colgate impressively 42-17, a team they had never before beaten in 9 previous tries. It is not very likely the Tigers can beat the Terps, but it might be closer than expected.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  27-24 for Maryland.
  • Northern Illinois (2-2) is favored on the road by 7 points over Central Michigan (1-3). The Chippewas had a rough 3-game road losing streak and now return home, having only won their home opener against FCS South Carolina State. The Huskies are not as strong as last year but did beat Army 49-26 to start out the season, losing 45-42 to Kansas and then being demolished by Wisconsin 49-7. Northern Illinois outscored Cal Poly 47-30 last week. Their strength is rushing, but the Central Michigan weakness on defense is passing, so this may be close.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  28-24 for Northern Illinois.
  • Connecticut (2-2) is favored at home by 8 points over Western Michigan (2-2). The Huskies have already lost two games to non-conference opponents that were originally reckoned as wins (Vanderbilt and Iowa State), so no foe can be taken lightly. The Broncos put a scare into Illinois last week before losing 23-20. The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate UConn 2 points better than Western Michigan plus the home field advantage would make 5.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  28-23 for Connecticut.
  • Colorado State (3-1) is favored at home by 4.5 points over San Jose State (1-3). The Rams stunned Utah State 35-34 last week after Utah State fumbled away a punt (the 2nd punt fumble of the game by the same player - bad decision-making by coaches) with about 2 minutes to play, scored a TD, 2-point conversion and then prevailed in the overtime win as USU went for the 2-point conversion to win and failed. The Spartans entered the win column with a 34-24 victory over New Mexico State. Our stats favor San Jose State by 1 but the home field favors Colorado State. The Spartans had a good showing against Nevada.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  27-26 for San Jose State.
  • Arkansas State (2-2) is favored on the road by 7.5 points over Western Kentucky (0-3). In the current SportPundit rankings and ratings, the Hilltoppers find only one team, Memphis, rated worse. The Red Wolves beat Memphis 47-3.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  38-21 for Arkansas State.
  • Virginia Tech (4-0) is favored at home by 7 points over Clemson (4-0). This is one of the great matchups on tap today. The unadjusted SportPundit rankings and ratings would favor the Hokies by 11 plus 3 for the home field. The adjusted ratings would make the game even except for the home field. We go in any case with Frank Beamer and "Beamerball". Clemson's Dabo Swinney coaching style, by contrast, could be categorized is fiery. The difference for Clemson this year is via the new assistant coaches, especially the new offensive coordinator Chad Morris, who came from Tulsa and its hurry-up offense, but who now has to face a Hokie defense known for its opportunism. Really, I don't have a clue as to who will win this game, but it ought to be a good one
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-28 for Virginia Tech.
  • Texas (3-0) is favored on the road by 9 points over Iowa State (3-0). This is another great matchup because no one really knows just how strong these two undefeated teams are, both just having found the quarterbacks they need to win. Importantly, Texas brought in new coaches this season, including Bryan Harsin of Boise State as co-offensive coordinator and primary play-caller, and that is the Longhorns gain and the Bronco's loss. The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Longhorns by 11 minus the home field advantage of the Cyclones. Last year Iowa State beat Texas on the road 28-21 a week after losing to Oklahoma 52-0. In college football, few things are certain.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-24 for Texas.
  • LA Lafayette (3-1) is favored at home by 7.5 points over Florida Atlantic (0-3). The Ragin' Cajuns upset Florida international 36-31 last week on the strength of their offense, which put up a similar 34 points against Oklahoma State in the season opening loss. The SportPundit rankings and ratings not only rank Florida Atlantic 114th out of 120 teams, but the Owls are averaging only 164 yards per game on offense vs. 405 yards on defense. Last year the Owls won at home 24-23. Our stats favor LA Lafayette by 10 plus the home field advantage.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  34-21 for LA Lafayette.
  • Florida International (3-1) is favored at home by 2.5 points over Duke (2-2). FIU was upset by LA Lafayette last weekend and there was no official line for this game at the time that we make this prediction because of uncertainties for the Golden Panthers in terms of injuries to key players.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-23 for FIU.
  • Middle Tennessee State (0-3) is favored at home by 18.5 points over Memphis (1-3). The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate the Blue Raiders 24 points better than Memphis, which is ranked last of 120 teams in FBS. Plus the home field.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  44-17 for Middle Tennessee State.
  • Oklahoma (3-0) is favored at home by 39 points over Ball State (3-1). Look out. Anytime the point spread gets this large there is the danger that the dominant team benches its starters early and plays reserves, which can greatly influence the final score. Or, as in the famous case of Stanford against USC in 2007, the underdog can even win. The Trojans were favored by more than 40 points, but Stanford won 24-23. Here, Ball State has won 3 games against weak competition and lost 37-7 to South Florida. How much better are the Sooners than the Bulls? Three points better by our unadjusted stats and five points worse by our unadjusted stats. First-year head coach Pete Lembo, who previously coached at Elon, has been doing a great job at Ball State this year and they are stronger than anticipated, so that the Sooners are unlikely to beat Ball State by 39, indeed, they may not beat them by more than 29.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  44-17 for Oklahoma.
  • Utah (2-1) is favored at home by 6.5 points over Washington (3-1). This is a tough game to gauge, as one can tell by Sagarin's USA Today ratings, where the Predictor gives the Utes a 14-point edge (not including the home field advantage). The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate the Utes only 3 points better, plus the home field makes 6. Utah gave the game away to USC in a 23-14 loss on a blocked field goal for a TD and followed that up with an impressive 54-10 beating of BYU (the Cougars had 7 turnovers). In that game, the Utah defense allowed 11 net yards rushing. Our stats make the Huskers 6 points better than Utah and the Huskies lost 51-38 to Nebraska on the road. That favors Utah by 7.
    SportPundit thus calls it:  31-24 for Utah.
  • Hawaii (2-2) is favored on the road by 1.5 points over Louisiana Tech (1-3). The Warriors had an incomprehensible loss to UNLV 40-20 and last week beat FCS UC Davis 56-14. Last season they beat the Bulldogs 41-21 at home. Louisiana Tech has played three heartstoppers, winning one and losing three. Our stats after including the home field advantage favor Hawaii by 2-3 points. The key statistic may be that the Bulldogs currently rank 107th in pass defense, so how are they going to beat Might Mo Bryant Moniz at QB for Hawaii?
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-28 for Hawaii.
  • Troy State (1-2) is favored at home by 16 points over UAB (0-3). The Blazers were pulverized by Florida and Tulane and then gave East Carolina a scare last week before falling 28-23. Troy lost to Clemson and Arkansas before beating Middle Tennessee 38-35. The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate the Trojans 17 points better plus the home field advantage makes 20.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 41-21 for Troy.
  • Tulsa (1-3) is favored at home by 23 points over North Texas (1-3). The Mean Green entered the winning column last week, knocking off Big Ten Indiana, 24-21, giving new head coach Dan McCarney an initial signature win coming off a 41-0 loss to Alabama. The Golden Hurricane has thus far played the most difficult schedule in FBS, falling to Oklahoma 47-14 (33 points), Oklahoma State 59-33 (26 points) and Boise State 41-21 (20 points). It is amazing after that schedule that Tulsa still has better yards per play stats on offense (5.8 ypp) than their competitors (5.5 ypp). The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate Tulsa 23 points better plus the home field advantage makes 26.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 40-14 for Tulsa.
  • Southern Mississippi (3-1) is favored at home by 14.5 points over Rice (1-2). We rated the Golden Eagles highly to start the season, but they were lucky to beat Louisiana Tech 19-17 and lost at Marshall 26-20, bouncing back to beat Virginia 30-24 last week. The SportPundit rankings and ratings rate Southern Miss about 11 (adjusted) or 15 (adjusted) points better than the Owls plus the home field advantage. Rice's claim to fame is an unexpected 24-22 win over Purdue, combined with losses to Texas 34-9 and Baylor 56-31. Those 25-point score differentials suggest that Texas and Baylor are equally strong. By our stats, we rate Texas at 1.3 and Rice at -2.5 or a difference of 3.8 rating points. Each rating point is worth 7 scoreboard points so that 7 x 3.8 = 26.6 points minus the home field advantage. We give the Golden Eagles an unadjusted rating of -0.4 and an adjusted rating of -1.0 (to put them below a Marshall team that beat them). Our span for the spread is thus 14 to 18 points in favor of Southern Mississippi.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-14 for Southern Miss.
  • New Mexico State (1-3) is favored on the road by 2.5 points over New Mexico (0-4). Mike Locksley is out as Lobos head coach, replaced by former defensive coordinator George Barlow as interim coach for the rest of the season. No one can know what impact this will have on the team or the game. Fan attendance has dwindled out of sight (in the last home loss, 48-45 to the FCS Sam Houston State Bearkats, attendance was the lowest in 19 years, only 16,313) and the football situation in New Mexico is dire, but that was already clear several years ago.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 35-31 for New Mexico State.
  • Wisconsin (4-0) is favored at home by 7 points over Nebraska (4-0). The Huskers surely imagined a better start of new Big Ten Conference play than this game against the currently strongest Big Ten team. The Badgers look like they could run roughshod over the Cornhuskers, who even against a much weaker Wyoming team last week managed only 1 tackle for a loss. The Blackshirt defense this year is a veritable shadow of itself and the Big Red appears to have only a very remote outside chance to win this game, unless the Huskers plan to unveil some secret defense against Russell Wilson, who ranks 2nd in the nation in pass efficiency. Furthermore, the Badger rushing attack is nearly on a par with that of Nebraska, while the Wisconsin rush and pass defenses are excellent.
    According to cfbstats.com, the national rankings are:
    Rushing Offense -- Nebraska 8th, Wisconsin 13th
    Passing Offense -- Nebraska 105th, Wisconsin 26th
    Rushing Defense -- Nebraska 56th, Wisconsin 21st
    Passing Defense -- Nebraska 63rd, Wisconsin 10th
    As a Husker alum and of course as a Husker fan, things look difficult and there is no discussion any more about a Husker Big Ten championship. The Huskers are clearly over-rated. Wisconsin is not.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 37-24 for Wisconsin.
  • North Carolina (3-1) is favored on the road by 8 points over East Carolina (1-2). Our SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Tar Heels by 14 minus the home field advantage makes 11 points.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 34-23 for North Carolina.
  • Notre Dame (2-2) is favored on the road by 14.5 points over Purdue (2-1). We have an adjusted rating for Purdue because of their loss to Rice, giving the Fighting Irish a 22-point edge minus the home field advantage of the Boilermakers, would make 19. An unadjusted look at the ratings, however, would favor Notre Dame by only 6 minus the home field advantage, would make 3. Notre Dame would appear to be stronger than that, if they continue to improve on their mistakes.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 34-17 for Notre Dame.
  • Fresno State (2-2) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Mississippi (1-3). The SportPundit rankings and ratings would favor the Bulldogs by 11 plus the home field advantage makes 14.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 31-17 for Fresno State.
  • Stanford (3-0) is favored at home by 22.5 points over UCLA (2-2). One great advantage of having gone to Stanford Law School is that the LawPundit can root for the Cardinal when it looks like the Huskers are going to meet their match. Our stats favor Stanford by 16 points plus the home field advantage makes 19.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 40-21 for Stanford.
  • Arizona State (3-1) is favored at home by 17.5 points over Oregon State (0-3). The SportPundit rankings and ratings favor the Sun Devils by 14 points plus the home field advantage of 3 points, makes 17.
    SportPundit thus calls it: 37-20 for Arizona State.


Texas A&M to Join SEC Effective July 1, 2012 : It's Official

The SEC announced officially that Texas A&M is to join the Southeastern Conference (SEC) effective July 1, 2012. Dr. Saturday has the story at Yahoo! Sports Rivals at For real this time: Texas A&M officially joins the SEC.

Detroit Lions Go To 3-0 with 26-23 OT Win Over Minnesota Vikings on the Road, Overcoming 20-0 Deficit

See the AP article by Noah Trister at Yahoo! Sports at Lions hope 3-0 start only the beginning for a detailed account of the game, the history and the future. Ndamukong Suh had 3 solo tackles, 2 assists and 1 sack.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

College Football Rankings 2011 FBS - After Week 4 of Play - by SportPundit -- YPPSYS and NAYPPA

College Football Rankings and Ratings 2011 FBS by SportPundit
After Week 4 of Play
-- by YPPSYS (yards per play system) and NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage) -- modified by schedule difficulty


Year in and year out, yards per play per team for a season is a very constant statistic in FBS football (our discovery some years ago), with a mean for 120 FBS teams (i.e. at ca. position 60 or 61 of those 120 teams for each parameter) of about 5.4 yards on offense and 5.3 yards on defense. The steadiness of this stat is really quite remarkable in view of ever-changing offenses and defenses, strategies, and tactics. See YPP (yards per play) applied at: The Best College Football Teams of All Time Can Be Narrowed Down Using NAYPPA - Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage, where the greatest teams approach a NAYPPA stat of near to 3.0 Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage (yards per play offense vs. yards per play defense), but not more, even though Boise State last year set the modern FBS record with 3.5, but lost a game and hence can not be counted to the greatest teams. Hence, if teams now have stats above a NAYPPA of 3, those drop quickly in the course of a season.

The YPPSYS rating system of two primary parameters -- NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage) and schedule difficulty -- (plus we add a 0.2 penalty for each loss) gets more accurate in judging a team's strength as the season wears on, rivalling pure points, i.e. margin of victory, as a good predictor of game outcomes (see the somewhat adjusted final 2010 YPPSYS ratings and rankings). YPPSYS stats can of course be supplemented by margin of victory, won-loss record, turnover ratio, big gainers, total yardage stats, quality of the head coach and coaching staff, conference affiliation, home field advantage, player injuries, etc., but for that we would have to computerize the whole thing, whereas we do it here by hand just for fun, and also apply subjective judgment where we want. Please do not rely on our stats or analysis for any football wagering or betting. See the next paragraph.

Caveat emptor. Buyer beware! We make no guarantees or warranties of accuracy and disclaim any and all liability for anyone using our stats, rankings and ratings for any purpose!

We have simplified YPPSYS (yards per play system) in 2011 so that team ratings for 2011 are NOT fully comparable with team ratings for 2010, even if the ratings LOOK similar.

Yards per play stats (ypp) are taken as available from Yahoo Sports Rivals.com, ESPN College Football, cfbstats.com, and/or individual team stat pages, so that the links that you find for any team in the rankings may not always point to the most current stat source.

To determine schedule difficulty at this early stage of the season, in the 1st week we took the average of schedule difficulty given at Massey Ratings plus Sagarin USA Today. We took their sum, then multiplied that by 2, divided by 100 to get a decimal fraction and took that amount off the NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage).

Starting Week 2, we used Sagarin alone, as Massey Ratings did not have their rankings up yet when we began updating, AND in the second week we use schedule difficulty without doubling, but do divide the schedule difficulty by 100 to give a decimal fraction that is substracted from the NAYPPA. In Week 4, we do use one schedule rating from Massey for a team where the Sagarin rating did not look right (that rating is linked to Massey).

Yards per play on offense and defense are very much a function of the strength of the opponent played, so that this schedule difficulty adjustment is essential.

As of the 2nd week, .2 is also subtracted from NAYPPA for every game lost.

This system, as all ranking and ratings systems, is imperfect, but the YPPSYS yards per play approach can provide a general objective idea as to how college football teams actually are performing, rather than concentrating on team ratings based in good part on the subjective judgments of various polls, although the rankings generally are very similar as the season progresses, whether one uses subjective or objective criteria, or a combination of the two.

The red figures in parentheses next to the current ranking in black are last year's final post-bowl rankings on YPPSYS. Although there are always exceptions to the rule, as a general rule, not that much changes from one year to the next, so these are a good check on whether current rankings or ratings are sensible, regardless of stats.


College Football Rankings and Ratings 2011 FBS
After Week 4 of Play
-- by YPPSYS and NAYPPA

YPPSYS
2011

Team
Rankings
after

Week 4
of Play
(2010 rank in red)
The
Football
TEAM
that was
ranked
and
rated
NAYPPA
2010
2011
(net
average
yards
per play
advant-
age)

YPP OFF
2010
2011
yards per play

YPP DEF
2010
2011
yards
per
play  



Schedule difficulty 
2010
2011
(up to the games played)

W-L
record

2010
2011

YPPSYS
Team
Rating based on ypp
advantage

minus
schedule
difficulty
2010

2011



1 (4)
Crimson Tide finds QB in McCarron
Alabama
(Crimson Tide may have nation's best defense)
2.4
4.1

7.0
6.9

4.6
2.8


14
59

10-3
4-0

1.5
3.5

2 (12)
(top defense, weak offense)
LSU
(very fast team but stats poor)
0.4
1.1

5.3
5.2

4.9
4.1


15
10

11-2
4-0

0.0
1.0
*3.4 adjusted

3 (60) 
(dual threat Tevin Washington)
Georgia Tech  
(juggernaut offense running and passing)
0.0
4.3

5.7
9.4

5.7
5.1


60
114

6-7
4-0

-2.5
3.2

4 (2)
(Thomas & James return)
Oregon
(school slow to post cumulative online stats)
2.0
2.8

6.7
7.5

4.7
4.7


7
32

12-1
3-1

1.6
2.3

5 (10) (potent rush attack but holes in line) Wisconsin
(QB transfer Russell Wilson lifting Badgers)
1.4
3.7

6.7
7.9

5.3
4.2


38
148

11-2
4-0

0.1
2.2

6 (42) (Bears win over TCU astounding)
Baylor
(Robert Griffin at QB guarantees potent offense)
0.8
3.3

6.6
8.7

5.8
5.4


52
119

7-6
3-0

-1.3
2.2

7 (25)
(Urban Meyer Gator glory looms on the horizon)
Florida
(Will Muschamp
for Gators, with Charlie Weiss on offense)
0.5
3.2

5.2
6.8

4.7
3.6


18
123

8-5
3-0

-0.7
2.0

8 (3)
 (top QB in Andrew Luck)
 Stanford
(Jim Harbaugh
to 49ers)
1.6
2.7

6.7
7.2

5.1
4.5


2
75

12-1
3-0

1.5
1.9

9 (15) (powerhouse Sooners lack dominance) Oklahoma
(18 returning starters, stats
not impressive)
0.5
0.3

5.6
6.2

5.1
5.9


20
15

12-2
3-0

-0.4
0.2
*1.3 adjusted

10 (48)
(Gilbert now out at QB)
Texas
(Case McCoy
in at QB)
0.6
1.9

5.2
6.2

4.6
4.3


50
58

5-7
3-0

-1.7
1.3

11 (40)
(Hoke brings magic back)
Michigan
(Ann Arbor in Denard fever)
0.7
1.9

6.8
7.4

6.1
5.5


33
63

7-6
4-0

-1.2
1.3

12 (9)
(weak defense limits higher ranking)
Oklahoma State
(Weeden 
and reciver Blackmon back)
1.9
0.9

6.9
6.5

5.0
5.6


34
22

11-2
4-0

0.8
0.7
*1.3 adjusted

13 (7) (sustainable depth, mark of top program) Boise State
(offense defense weaker, Moore & Martin back)
3.5! 0.8

7.5
6.2

4.0
5.4


46
19

12-1
3-0

1.3
0.6
*1.2 adjusted

14 (14)
(big games at end of year)
Virginia Tech
(easy schedule a big Hokie boost)
0.5
2.0

6.2
5.9

5.7
3.9


19
76

11-3
4-0

-0.3
1.2

15 (22)
(Aggies to SEC next year)
Texas A&M (tough loss to Oklahoma State) 0.8
2.0

5.6
6.6

4.8
4.6


22
49

9-4
2-1

-0.6
1.2

16 (30)
(Can QB Bryn Renner make Tar Heels title contender?)
North Carolina
(Tar Heels
have talent but are clouded by NCAA sanctions)
0.8
1.8

5.9
7.0

5.1
5.2


24
40

8-5
3-1

-0.9
1.2

17 (49)
(Chad Morris speeding team)
Clemson
(school slow to post cumulative online stats)
0.2
0.1

5.1
6.4

4.9
6.3


25
52

6-7
4-0

-1.7
-0.4
*1.2 adjusted

18 (16) (Clemson loss disappointed) Florida State
(Seminoles losing big ones)
1.1
2.4

6.0
6.4

4.9
4.0


16
64

10-4
2-2

-0.4
1.4
*1.2 adjusted

19 (53)
(defense was strong but Notre Dame win a gift)
South Florida
(Skip Holtz in 2nd year must resolve problem of weak offense)
0.3
2.1

5.0
6.6

4.7
4.5


67
118

8-5
4-0

-1.9
0.9
20 (11)
(Husker offense good, not top)
Nebraska
(Husker defense much weaker
than expected)
1.5
1.5

6.1
6.5

4.6
5.0


28
69

10-4
4-0

0.0
0.8

21 (21)
(Gamecocks up and down
in tough SEC)
South Carolina
(good start to season)
0.6
1.1

6.0
5.8

5.4
4.7


11
26

9-5
4-0

-0.5
0.8

22 (47)
(Illini stronger this season)
Illinois
(strong fresh faces for the Illini)
0.3
1.5

5.7
6.0

5.4
4.5


49
84

7-6
4-0

-1.7
0.7

23 (74)
(Cougars need a defense)
Houston
(Case Keenum
has returned)
0.6
2.1

6.4
7.2

5.8
5.1


89
141

5-7
4-0

-3.3
0.7

24 (27)
(weak 6-6 year in 2011)
Georgia
(fair to good, many loose edges)
0.9
1.6

6.1
6.0

5.2
4.4


26
17

6-7
2-2

-0.8
1.0
*0.7 adjusted

25 (28)
(ND Nation, Kelly, Lou Holtz: An offense in transition?)
Notre Dame
(Irish 35-31 loss
to Michigan in
1st Big House night game an instant classic)
0.3
1.0

5.5
6.0

5.2
5.0


17
5

8-5
2-2

-0.9
0.6

26 (17)
(defense better than 2010)
Michigan State (Notre Dame loss drops Spartans) 0.9
2.4

6.2
5.7

5.3
3.3


43
134

11-2
3-1

-0.4
0.9
*0.6 adjusted

27 (52)
(Does Joe Pa err in QB alternation?)
Penn State
(16 returning
starters for Joe Paterno)
0.1
1.2

5.5
5.1

5.4
3.9


48
53

7-6
3-1

-1.9
0.5

28 (19)
(20 returning starters)
Arizona State
(3rd largest USA undergrad univ.)
0.8
0.9

5.8
6.2

5.0
5.3


7
21

6-6
3-1

-0.5
0.5

29 (24)
(how strong
are Tigers this year?)
Missouri
(major
question was quarterback)
0.7
1.8

5.7
6.9

5.0
5.1


30
48

10-3
2-2

-0.6
0.9
*0.5 adjusted


30 (29)
(last season of post-game ineligibility,)
USC
(Southern Cal Trojans weaker, but still good)
0.1
0.8

6.0
6.0

5.9
5.2


5
31

8-5
3-1

-0.9
 0.3

31 (44)
(Navy may be stronger this year)
Navy
(a tough 2011 schedule for Midshipmen)
0.5
1.4

6.2
6.9

5.7
5.5


69
88

9-4
2-1

-1.5
0.3

32 (66)
(Steve Addazio new)
Temple
(Head coach Al Golden to Miami)
0.8
1.5

5.5
5.8

4.7
4.3


102
102

8-4
3-1

-2.8
0.3

33 (33)
(NCAA probation)
West Virginia
(Dana Holgorsen new head coach)
1.1
1.1

5.3
6.1

4.2
5.0


58
68

9-4
3-1

-1.0
0.2

34 (36)
(Utes in Pac 12 first year, but offense weak)
Utah
(Whittingham has Norm Chow as offensive co.)
0.8
0.4

6.1
5.4

5.3
5.0


40
18

10-3
2-1

-1.1
0.0

35 (1)
(fast team, leaky defense)
Auburn
(16 starters  graduated)
2.0
0.7

7.4
6.3

5.4
5.6


4
74

14-0
3-1

1.7
-0.2

36 (70)
(largest home opener crowd

54,672)
Iowa State
(Paul Rhoads
doing well with Cyclones)
-0.9
0.0

4.6
4.9

5.5
4.9


35
34

5-7
3-0

-3.1
-0.3

37 (23)
 (last year, Iowa won the close games)
Iowa
(always tough,
top coach in
Kirk Ferentz)
1.3
1.0

6.2
6.0

4.9
5.0


42
110

8-5
3-1

-0.6
-0.3

38 (43)
 (a winning season is possible)
Tennessee
(rocky days for
Rocky Top Volunteers?)
0.3
0.1

5.7
5.8

5.4
5.7


32
23

6-7
2-1

-1.4
-0.3

39 (51)
(an offensive juggernaut ?)
Tulsa
(new head coach
Bill Blankenship )
0.3
0.3

6.5
5.8

6.2
5.5


86
1

10-3
1-3

-1.8
-0.3

40 (8)
(lots of talent but QB loss raises doubts)
Arkansas
(lost badly to Alabama)
1.9
1.2

7.1
6.3

5.2
5.1


12
142

10-3
3-1

1.2
-0.4

41 (6)
(a rebuilding year likely)
TCU
(11 returning starters)
2.5
0.7

6.7
6.5

4.2
5.8


56
87

13-0
3-1

1.3
-0.4

42 (20)
(Bulldogs losses to tough competition)
Mississippi State
(Dan Mullen improving
Bulldogs team)
0.5
0.7

5.8
5.7

5.3
5.0


23
36

9-4
2-2

-0.5
-0.1
-0.4 adjusted

43 (39)
(played Huskers strong)
Washington
(defense is still weak point)
-0.1
0.3

5.5
6.2

5.6
5.9


3
46

7-6
3-1

-1.2
-0.4

44 (35)
(loss to Washington)
California
(strong defense
but a much weaker offense)
0.5
0.9

5.3
6.0

4.8
5.1


10
86

5-7
3-1

-1.0
-0.2
-0.4 adjusted

45 (68)
(
Chow out)
UCLA
(Johnson in)
-1.4
0.4

4.7
6.4

6.1
6.0


8
41

4-8
2-2

-3.0
-0.4

46 (64)
(Eastern Kentucky scare)

Kansas State (Snyder brings wins to K-State) -0.6
0.8

5.8
5.1

6.4
4.3


57
139

7-6
3-0

-2.8
-0.6
*-0.5 adjusted

47 (31)
 (talent flood into Miami due to Al Golden)
Miami (Florida)
(no cumulative online stats online??)
1.1 
0.1

5.9
5.9

4.8
5.8


21
16

7-6
1-2

-0.9
-0.5

48 (54) 
(Will Stein starts well at QB in 2011)
Louisville
(Shawn Watson
as QB coach for Cards)
0.7
1.0

5.7
5.3

5.0
4.3


71
127

7-6
2-1

-1.9
-0.5

49 (18)
(Brady Hoke left good substance)
San Diego State (Rocky Long must keep offense potent) 2.0
0.3

6.9
6.0

4.9
5.7


79
71

9-4
3-1

-0.5
-0.6 

50 (78)
(thin talent for SEC play)
Vanderbilt
(new head coach James Franklin)
-1.2
0.2

4.6
4.4

5.8
4.2


47
60

2-10
3-1

-3.7
-0.6

51 (5)
(depleted by scandal)
Ohio State
head coach Tressel gone)
2.2
0.6

6.5
5.2

4.3
4.6


27
109

12-1
3-1

1.4
-0.7

52 (56)
(Seth Doege at QB sparks offense)
Texas Tech
(Tuberville must fix weakness
in defense)
-0.1
0.9

5.7
6.8

5.8
5.9


53
160

8-5
3-0

-2.0
-0.7

53 (63)
(Orange in a steady improvement)
Syracuse
(Doug Marrone
moving the Orangemen)
0.6
0.1

5.2
5.5

4.6
5.4


74
77

8-5
3-1

-2.7
-0.7

54 (91)
(Rutgers loss N. Carolina) 
Rutgers (mediocre to average?) -1.2
-0.9

4.6
4.4

5.8
5.3


84
106

4-8
2-1

-4.2
-2.2
*-0.7 adjusted

55 (37)
("Mighty Mo" Bryant Moniz top passer in FBS last year)

Hawaii
(5000-yard Moniz
and 8 starters return in a rebuilding year)
2.4
0.8

7.6
6.1

5.2
5.3


81
112

10-4
2-2

-1.1
-0.7

56 (32)
(Nevada in rebuilding year)
Nevada
(Ault's pistol offense changed face of football)
1.4
-0.4

7.0
6.0

5.6
6.4


68
4

13-1
1-2

-1.0
-0.8

57 (98)
(7 turnovers in win over UAB) 
East Carolina
(Ruffin McNeil 100 lbs lighter) 
-0.8
-0.3

5.7
4.7

6.5
5.0


66
12

6-7
1-2

-4.5
-0.8

58 (41)
 (TCU the stronger team)
Air Force
(Troy Calhoun a winner)
0.8
2.3

6.0
7.9

5.2
5.6


64
168

9-4
2-1

-1.3
0.4
*-0.8 adjusted

59 (94)
(T.Y. Hilton for Heisman?) 
Florida Int. FIU
(Hilton injured in 3rd game) 
0.1
0.4

5.7
5.5

5.6
5.1


103
93

7-6
3-1

-4.3
-0.8

60 (26)
(top defense is a trademark for Knights)
UCF
(Nr. 1 in the USA in undergraduate enrollment)
1.0
2.8

5.8
6.2

4.8
3.4


95
107

11-3
2-2

-0.7
1.3
 -0.8 adjusted

61 (61)
 (SMU wants in to the Big 12)
SMU
(18 starters
and QB return
)
1.3
2.2

6.3
6.4

5.0
4.2


80
132

7-7
3-1

-2.5
0.7
 -*0.8 adjusted

62 (69) 
(Jon Embree new coach)
Colorado
(Buffs in Pac 12
this season)
-0.8
0.5

5.1
5.7

5.9
5.2


36
37

5-7
1-3

-3.1
-0.5
*-0.8 adjusted

63 (104)
(defense must stop big plays) 
Arkansas State
(Hugh Freeze wins at Memphis
-0.2
1.3

5.7
6.3

5.9
5.0


105
66

4-8
2-2

-5.2
0.2
*-0.8 adjusted

64 (88)
(Could Bobcats beat Huskers?)
Ohio
(Ex-Husker Solich Bobcat coach) 
0.2
1.5

5.5
6.2

5.3
4.7


114
140

8-5
3-1

-4.1
-0.1
-*0.8 adjusted

65 (80)
(QB Jeff Tuel broke clavicle)
Washington State
(offense thrives under Lobbestael)
-1.8
2.2

4.9
7.4

6.7
5.2


9
153

2-10
2-1

-3.8
0.5
*-0.8 adjusted

66 (81)
(Jim Grobe since 2001)
Wake Forest
(QB Tanner Price injured)
-1.0
0.7

4.8
5.5

5.8
4.8


39
125

3-9
2-1

-3.8
-0.8

67 (97)
(Broncos won cannon
Western Michigan
(Bill Cubit
0.0
0.1

5.7
5.6

5.7
5.5


107
50

6-6
2-2

-4.4
-0.8

68 (58)
(loss to Tennessee Volunteers)
Cincinnati
(Bearcats went from 11-0 2009
to 4-8 in 2010)
0.7
0.9

6.0
6.5

5.3
5.6


51
159

4-8
3-1

-2.0
-0.9

69 (71)
(schedule not easy to start)
Fresno State
(Pat Hill coaches Bulldogs)
-0.2
0.0

5.6
5.7

5.8
5.7


77
45

8-5
2-2

-3.2
-0.9

70 (82)
(MAC West preseason favorites)
Toledo
(Head coach Tim Beckman leads Rockets)
0.2
-0.2

5.5
5.6

5.3
5.8


91
13

8-5
1-3

-3.8
-0.9

71 (38)
"not a name-
on-the-back-
of-the-jersey guy"
Maryland
(Randy Edsall of UConn new head coach, also NCAA sanctions)
0.9 
-0.4

5.6
5.4

4.7
5.8


54
20

9-4
1-2

-1.1
-1.0

72 (95)
(thumped by Ohio) 
Marshall
(loss to Virginia Tech) 
-0.3
-0.3

4.9
4.6

5.2
4.9


93
8

5-7
1-3

-4.3
-1.0

73 (73)
(conference title elusive)

Southern Miss
(since 1994 no losing season)
0.2
1.1

5.7
5.3

5.5
4.2


90
126

8-5
3-1

-3.3
-0.4
 -1.0 adjusted

74 (75)
(Southern Miss beats Virginia)
Virginia
(18 returning starters)
-0.5
0.7

5.6
5.4

6.1
4.7


65
78

4-8
2-2

-3.4
-0.5
 -1.0 adjusted

75 (59)
(UConn's new coach former Syracuse head)
Connecticut
(Paul Pasqualoni replaced
Randy Edsall)
-0.3
0.3

4.9
4.7

5.2
4.4


75
97

8-5
2-2

-2.4
-1.1

76 (34)
(Pitt AD gets a mulligan)
Pittsburgh
(Graham in for Wannstedt)
1.0
-0.2

5.7
5.0

4.7
5.2


41
61

8-5
2-2

-1.0
-1.2

77 (92)
(2010 wins equalled in
1st 3 games) 
Wyoming
(QB Brett Smith a true freshman) 
-0.8
0.1

5.0
6.0

5.8
5.9


70
105

3-9
3-1

-4.2
-1.2

78 (118) 
(Is Clawson
on track now?)

Bowling Green
(QB Matt Schilz passes to win)
-1.8
1.8

4.3
6.1

6.1
4.3


100
162

2-10
3-1

-6.9
0.0
*-1.2 adjusted

79 (90)
(Clemson rally beats Trojans) 
Troy
(Young team with some promise) 
0.1
-0.7

5.9
5.7

5.8
6.4


111
9

8-5
1-2

-4.1
-1.2

80 (101)
(100-year anniversary)
Mid. Tennessee
(close losses to Troy and Purdue)
0.2
-0.5

5.3
5.9

5.1
6.4


132
27

6-7
0-3

-4.8
-1.4

81 (46)
(Liberty scared Wolfpack)
N.C. State
(Wolfpack lacks a top quarterback)
-0.1
0.0

5.2
5.7

5.3
5.7


29
108

9-4
2-2

-1.7
-1.5

82 (89)
(Sonny Dykes Bulldogs head)
Louisiana Tech
(true freshman at starting QB)
-0.7
-0.4

5.3
4.9

6.0
5.3


78
54

5-7
1-3

-4.1
-1.5

83 (45)
(loss to FCS Sacramento)
Oregon State
(appears to be weaker this year)
-0.5
-0.4

5.2
5.4

5.7
5.8


1
51

5-7
0-3

-1.7
-1.5

84 (113)
(Hudspeth defense needs work) 
Louis.-Lafayette
(many points against Cowboys in loss) 
-0.9
-0.6

5.0
4.5

5.9
5.1


109
79

3-9
3-1

-6.1
-1.6

85 (65)
(BYU badly needs an offense)
BYU
(Cougars are independents
this season)
-0.1
-1.2

5.0
4.2

5.1
5.4


61
14

7-6
2-2

-2.8
-1.7

86 (84) 
(Duke brave vs. Stanford)
Duke
(David Cutcliffe Blue Devil coach)
-1.2
-0.5

5.2
5.5

6.4
6.0


37
80

3-9
2-2

-3.9
-1.7

87 (96)
(Tulane crushed UAB) 
Tulane
(Bob Toledo at Green Wave) 
-1.0
0.1

5.0
5.4

6.0
5.3


97
138

4-8
2-2

-4.3
-1.7

88 (107)
(special teams need work) 
Louis.-Monroe
(offense stopped by Seminoles) 
-0.9
-1.0

4.8
4.5

5.7
5.5


110
11

5-7
1-3

-5.7
-1.7
89 (13)
(defense giving up big yards)
Arizona
(difficult schedule for Wildcats)
1.1
-0.9

6.0
6.0

4.9
6.9


13
3

7-6
1-3

-0.2
-1.8

90 (99)
(mangled by
Georgia Tech) 
Kansas
(talented recruits help Jayhawks) 
-1.9
-2.5

4.3
6.0

6.2
8.5


63
62

3-9
2-1

-4.7
-3.3
 -1.8 adjusted

91 (55)
 (Dave Doeren debut a win)
Northern Illinois
(smashed by Wisconsin)
1.7
0.8

6.9
6.8

5.2
6.0


104
67

11-3
2-2

-1.9
-0.3
 -1.8 adjusted

92 (50)
(might be a tough year for the Eagles)
Boston College (three top echelon players not enough) 0.4
-0.2

4.8
5.3

4.4
5.5


31
104

7-6
1-3

-1.8
-1.8

93 (67)
(tough loss to Army)
Northwestern
(weak defense is Achilles heel)
-0.5
-0.3

5.4
5.4

5.9
5.7


76
133

7-6
2-1

-2.9
-1.8

94 (106)
(win against N. Mexico State) 
San Jose State
(good showing against Nevada) 
-1.2
-0.8

5.2
4.9

6.4
5.7


73
38

1-12
1-3

-5.6
-1.8

95 (111)
(Cards upset Indiana) 
Ball State
(setback loss to South Florida) 
-1.0
-0.7

4.9
5.3

5.9
6.0


122
98

4-8
3-1

-6.0
-1.9

96 (86)
(Hoosiers struggling)
Indiana
(Kevin Wilson debut fizzled)
-1.2
-0.1

5.4
5.4

6.6
5.5


87
124

5-7
1-3

-4.0
-1.9

97 (87)
(RedHawks struggling)
Miami (Ohio)
(Don Treadwell in close loss debut)
-0.2
-0.6

5.2
4.6

5.4
5.2


108
65

10-4
0-3

-4.1
-1.9

98 (103)
(big loss to Michigan State) 
Central Michigan
(big loss to Western Michigan) 
-0.1
-0.8

5.4
4.4

5.5
5.2


101
57

3-9
1-3

-5.0
-2.0

99 (100)
(trying to get bowl eligible) 
Colorado State
(injuries to several players) 
-1.4
-0.3

5.1
4.7

6.5
5.0


72
164

3-9
3-1

-4.8
-2.1

100 (102)
(Head coach Gary Andersen is the key) 
Utah State
(Aggies scared Auburn and had better stats) 
-1.2
2.6

4.9
6.7

6.1
4.1


82
95

4-8
1-2

-4.9
1.2
*-2.1 adjusted

101 (57) 
(Joker Phillips displeased
with offense)

Kentucky
(destroyed by Florida)
0.5
-1.1

6.1
4.3

5.6
5.4


59
111

6-7
2-2

-2.0
-2.6
*-2.1 adjusted

102 (83)
(loss to North Dakota State)
Minnesota
(Golden Gophers struggling)
-1.3
-0.6

5.3
5.3

6.6
5.9


45
121

3-9
1-3

-3.9
-2.4

103 (62) 
(Rebel offense
very weak)
Mississippi
(defense improving)
-0.5
-1.5

5.8
4.0

6.3
5.5


44
42

4-8
1-3

-2.7
-2.5

104 (93)
(loss to South Florida)
UTEP
(Nick Lamaison new QB) 
-0.1
-1.3

5.6
4.9

5.7
6.2


117
82

6-7
2-2

-4.2
-2.5

105 (116)
(Aggie fans optimistic) 
New Mexico St.
(Manley boosts passing game) 
-2.5
0.2

4.3
5.7

6.8
5.5


92
117

2-10
1-3

-6.6
-0.6
 -2.5 adjusted

106 (119)
(weak start schedule) 
Eastern Michigan
(English: "embrace the process") 
-2.3
-0.2

5.0
5.3

7.3
5.5


99
101

2-10
2-2

-7.4
-1.6
*-2.5 adjusted
107 (112)
(offensively challenged
Buffalo
(Win over Stony Brook) 
-0.7
0.1

4.2
5.2

4.9
5.1


118
72

2-10
1-3

-6.0
-1.2
*-2.5 adjusted

108 (105)
(defense a major concern) 
Rice
(Texas stops Owls offense
-1.2
-2.1

5.2
4.6

6.4
6.7


94
6

4-8
1-2

-5.3
-2.5

109 (120)
(did Buckeyes run up the score?) 
Akron
(head coach Rob Ianello complains) 
-2.0
-0.8

4.3
4.8

6.3
5.6


120
114

1-11
1-3

-7.5
-2.5
110 (79) 
(Ellerson in 3rd season)
Army
(improving under Rich Ellerson)
-0.9
-1.4

4.9
5.3

5.8
6.7


98
56

7-6
1-3

-3.7
-2.6

111 (72)
(QB Caleb TerBush)
Purdue
(Boilermaker
offense weak)
-0.5
1.7

4.7
6.1

5.2
4.4


62
181

4-8
2-1

-3.2
-0.3
-2.6 adjusted

112 (77)
(good defense, but as good as no offense)
Kent State
(Darrell Hazell
putting in
spread offense)
0.5
-2.1

4.9
2.9

4.4
5.0


106
24

5-7
1-3

-3.5
-2.9

113 (85)
(Vandals fall to Falcons)
Idaho
(Robb Akey looks for improvement)
-0.4
-1.6

5.5
4.4

5.9
6.0


88
90

6-7
1-3

-4.0
-3.1

114 (109)
(defense: 3 interceptions by secondary vs. Gators) 
Florida Atlantic
(Schnellenberger coaching from press box) 
-0.7
2.5

4.9
3.2

5.6
5.7


113
2

4-8
0-3

-5.9
-3.1

115 (117)
(Mike Locksley head coach) 
New Mexico
(QB protection inadequate
-2.4
-1.8

4.0
5.1

6.4
6.9


83
55

1-11
0-4

-6.6
-3.2
116 (110)
(bright spots, bad spots
UNLV
(Bobby Hauck looks forward) 
-2.3
-2.3

4.4
4.4

6.7
6.7


55
44

2-11
1-3

-6.0
-3.3

117 (108)
(positives to build on) 
North Texas
(Mean Green and Dan McCarney
-0.3
-2.7

5.6
4.4

5.9
7.1


116
25

3-9
1-3

-5.7
-3.6

118 (76)
 (shut out by Florida)
UAB
(Callaway on the
hot seat?)
0.0
-2.6

5.8
4.5

5.8
7.1


96
 35

4-8
0-3

-3.4
-3.6

119 (115)
(stronger this year) 
Western Kentucky
(offense priority) 
-1.2
-2.2

4.8
4.4

6.0
6.6


112
100

2-10
0-3

-6.6
-3.8

120 (114)
(Taylor Reed QB game 2) 
Memphis
(Larry Porter looking forward) 
-1.8
-3.3

4.8
4.0

6.6
7.3


85
103

1-11
1-3

-6.5
-4.9


Most Popular Posts of All Time

The ISandIS Network

Our Websites and Blogs: 3D Printing and More 99 is not 100 Aabecis AK Photo Blog Ancient Egypt Weblog Ancient Signs (the book) Ancient World Blog AndisKaulins.com Anthropomorphic Design Archaeology Travel Photos (blog) Archaeology Travel Photos (Flickr) Archaeo Pundit Arts Pundit Astrology and Birth Baltic Coachman Bible Pundit Biotechnology Pundit Book Pundit Chronology of the Ancient World Computer Pundit DVD Pundit Easter Island Script Echolat edu.edu Einstein’s Voice Energy Environment and Climate Blog Etruscan Bronze Liver of Piacenza EU Laws EU Legal EU Pundit FaceBook Pundit Gadget Pundit Garden Pundit Golf Pundit Google Pundit Gourmet Pundit Hand Proof HousePundit Human Migrations Idea Pundit Illyrian Language Indus Valley Script Infinity One : The Secret of the First Disk (the game) Jostandis Journal Pundit Kaulins Genealogy Blog Kaulinsium Kiel & Kieler Latvian Blog LawPundit.com Law Pundit Blog LexiLine.com LexiLine Group Lexiline Journal Library Pundit Lingwhizt LinkedIn Literary Pundit Magnifichess Make it Music Maps and Cartography Megalithic World Megaliths Blog) Megaliths.net Minoan Culture Mutatis Mutandis Nanotech Pundit Nostratic Languages Official Pundit Phaistos Disc Pharaonic Hieroglyphs Photo Blog of the World Pinterest Prehistoric Art Pundit Private Wealth Blog PunditMania Quanticalian Quick to Travel Quill Pundit Road Pundit Shelfari SlideShare (akaulins) Sport Pundit Star Pundit Stars Stones and Scholars (blog) Stars Stones and Scholars (book) Stonehenge Pundit The Enchanted Glass Twitter Pundit UbiquitousPundit Vision of Change VoicePundit WatchPundit Wine Pundit Word Pundit xistmz YahooPundit zistmz