College Football Prediction Results for Week 15 2019 FBS Season

College Football Prediction Results for Week 15 2019 FBS Season

We finished Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
8-2 in calling the winner
5-5 against the spread, and
4-6 against the over/under.

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 15 stands at:
637-208 in calling the winner (75%)
424-406-15 against the spread, and
416-407-11 against the over/under ("total").

If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution. However, if online services differ as to the opening line, we try to pick "half odds" so as to avoid ties with the line. This can be an updated line.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications here are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 14th week of play. Our ranking for each team is given in parentheses next to the team name.

Friday, December 6, 2019

Utah (8) vs. Oregon (11) at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
The Utes were favored over the Ducks by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Utah. Utah in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +1.42 while Oregon has an AYPP of (plus) +1.01, a difference of 0.41 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 4.1 scoreboard points. In calculating over/under, i.e. total score, we take as a standard (unless we adjust for something else subjectively, e.g. like a quarterback change) that a total of 11.00 yards per play in a game by each team, offense AND defense, corresponds to 55 total scoreboard points. Using that system we get a total of ca. 56 scoreboard points here as our prognostication for total score for the over/under. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 30-26 and prognosticate a final score of 27-23.
Result: Oregon blitzed Utah 37-15 as Oregon's CJ Verdell scored on runs of 70 and 31 yards in the last half of the fourth quarter while Utah went scoreless in the last stanza. Oregon shows with the win why a more expanded playoff system is necessary, as teams develop over the course of the season and may be in top form at season's end, even if they lost a close one early in the year.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
0-1 in calling the winner
1-0 against the spread, and
0-1 against the over/under.

Saturday, December 7, 2019

Baylor (15) vs. Oklahoma (3) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Sooners were favored over the Bears by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-23 for Oklahoma. Oklahoma in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.43 while Baylor has an AYPP of (plus) +0.62, a difference of 1.81 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 18.1 scoreboard points. The ypp stats for both teams total 25.02 = 3.02 more than the standard 2 x 11.00. Dividing 3.02 by 2 we get 1.51 x 10 = 15.1 points more that are expected beyond 55 = 70. Oklahoma had its greatest comeback ever to beat Baylor 34-31 in the regular season. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 44-26 and prognosticate a final score of 41-23.
Result: Oklahoma beat Baylor in overtime 30-23, outgaining the Bears 433 to 265 yards but giving up two turnovers.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
1-1 in calling the winner
1-1 against the spread, and
0-2 against the over/under.

Louisiana-Lafayette (39) vs. Appalachian State (29) at Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina
The Mountaineers were favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Appalachian State. Appalachian State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.44 while Louisiana-Lafayette has an AYPP of (minus) -0.70, a difference of 0.26 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 2.6 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 33-30 and prognosticate a final score of 30-27.
Result: After leading 35-14 in the 2nd quarter and 35-17 at halftime Appalachian State held on to beat Louisiana 45-38.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-1 in calling the winner
1-2 against the spread, and
0-3 against the over/under.

Miami of Ohio (97) vs. Central Michigan (84) at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Chippewas were favored over the RedHawks by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Central Michigan. Central Michigan in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -2.27 while Miami of Ohio has an AYPP of (minus) -2.67, a difference of 0.40 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 4.0 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 29-25 and prognosticate a final score of 27-23.
Result: Miami of Ohio edged Central Michigan 26-21, as the Chippewas outgained the RedHawks 355 to 272 yards but lost the scoreboard battle.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-2 in calling the winner
2-2 against the spread, and
1-3 against the over/under.

UAB Alabama-Birmingham (83) vs. FAU Florida Atlantic (73) at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
The Owls were favored over the Blazers by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for FAU. Florida Atlantic in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -1.92 while UAB has an AYPP of (minus) -2.24, a difference of 0.32 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 3.2 scoreboard points. The statistical result gives a nice score so we stick with it here.
Result: FAU won 49-6.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
3-2 in calling the winner
2-3 against the spread, and
2-3 against the over/under.

Cincinnati (23) vs. Memphis (21) at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
The Tigers were favored over the Bearcats by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Memphis. Memphis in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.07 while Cincinnati has an AYPP of (minus) -0.14, a difference of 0.07 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 0.7 scoreboard points, i.e. less than 1 point. Memphis beat Cincinnati 34-24 in the last regular season game for both teams this season, in which the Tigers won the turnover contest 3 to 1. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 30-29 and prognosticate a final score of 27-26.
Result: Memphis won 29-24.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
4-2 in calling the winner
3-3 against the spread, and
3-3 against the over/under.

Hawaii (62) vs. Boise State (27) at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Broncos were favored over the Warriors by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 37-27 for Boise State. Boise State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.38 while Hawai'i has an AYPP of (minus) -1.40, a difference of 1.02 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 10.2 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 39-29 and prognosticate a final score of 37-27.
Result: Boise State won 31-10.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
5-2 in calling the winner
3-4 against the spread, and
3-4 against the over/under.

Georgia (6) vs. LSU (2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Tigers were favored over the Dawgs by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for LSU. Louisiana State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.70 while Georgia has an AYPP of (plus) +1.63, a difference of 1.07 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 10.7 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 36-26 and prognosticate a final score of 34-24.
Result: LSU won 37-10.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
6-2 in calling the winner
4-4 against the spread, and
3-5 against the over/under.

Virginia (42) vs. Clemson (5) at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Tigers were favored over the Cavaliers by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 41-16 for Clemson. Clemson in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +1.71 while Virginia has an AYPP of (minus) -0.79, a difference of 2.50 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 25 scoreboard points. A lot of points were scored in the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech game so we stick with an "over" total.
Result: Clemson won 62-17.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
7-2 in calling the winner
5-4 against the spread, and
4-5 against the over/under.

Ohio State (1) vs. Wisconsin (7) at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Buckeyes were favored over the Badgers by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Ohio State. Ohio State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +3.17 while Wisconsin has an AYPP of (plus) +1.44, a difference of 1.73 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 17.3 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 36-19 and prognosticate a final score of 34-17. The Buckeyes beat the Badgers 38-7 in the regular season.
Result: Ohio State rallied from a 21-7 halftime deficit to win 34-21. The poor first half performance will likely cost the Buckeyes the Nr. 1 playoffs seed to LSU, who convincingly beat Georgia.
We thus finished Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
8-2 in calling the winner
5-5 against the spread, and
4-6 against the over/under.