College Football Predictions for Week 4 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Predictions for Week 4 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 3 is now:
188-37 in calling the winner
107-114-4 against the spread
109-112-4 against the over/under ("total"). 

If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline). We do our predictions for fun and are not affiliated with any service or institution. 

Our predictions this week are more freehand than last, especially for the over/unders, although we do look to yards per play stats on both offense and defense, schedule difficulty, and home field advantage (calculated via Kambour or as a standard of 3 points).

Thursday, September 19, 2019
Recall, if possible, that we quote the opening line, not the updated line....
 
Houston at Tulane
The Green Wave were favored over the Cougars by 1 point.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Houston. Houston's offense-oriented opponents, Oklahoma and Washington State have skewed Houston's stats downward. Tulane's offense was held to 6 points by Auburn, but then again, the Green Wave defense held Auburn to 24 points. New head coach Dana Holgorsen's team will continue improving as the season progresses, while Tulane head coach Willie Fritz in his career has always ultimately produced winners, inheriting a 2015 3-9 Tulane team that has now gone 4-8, 5-7, and 7-6 with a 2018 Cure Bowl win over Louisiana. Thursday and Friday games often result in surprises, so who knows.
Result: ??

Friday, September 20, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....
 
Florida International FIU at Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs were favored over the Golden Panthers by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-14 for Louisiana Tech.
Result: ??

Utah at USC Southern California
The Utes were favored over the Trojans by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for USC.
Result: ??

Air Force at Boise State
The Broncos were favored over the Falcons by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call:  31-21 for Boise State.
Result: ??

Saturday, September 21, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....
 
Michigan at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Wolverines by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 17-16 for Michigan. The Wisconsin defense under Jim Leonhard looks superb, but we are biased as we have a Michigan grad in the family so we will go with the Wolverines, who, however, have not impressed yet this year.
Result: ??

Michigan State at Northwestern
The Spartans were favored over the Wildcats by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 40 points.
Our Call: 17-16 for Michigan State. Two top defensive teams meet.
Result: ??

Western Michigan at Syracuse
The Orange were favored over the Broncos by 4 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 38-35 for Syracuse. Syracuse won last year 55-42 in a scoring donnybrook, but the Orange do not look equally strong this year.
Result: ??

Louisiana Monroe ULM at Iowa State
The Cyclones were favored over the Warhawks by 20.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call:  for 35-17 for Iowa State.
Result: ??. The Cyclones lost a tough one to Iowa last week, 18-17, while UL Monroe lost in overtime to Florida State 45-44. It is thus quite a large line here, although our own stats would suggest an even greater spread. Nevertheless, one simply does not expect that kind of a margin here.

Connecticut UCONN at Indiana
The Hoosiers were favored over the Huskies by 28 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 41-14 for Indiana.
Result: ??

Tennessee at Florida
The Gators were favored over the Volunteers by 12.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for Florida. 
Result: ??

Southern Mississippi SOUTHERN MISS at Alabama
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Golden Eagles by 39 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 49-13 for Alabama.
Result: ??

Boston College at Rutgers
The Eagles were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 33-30 for Boston College.
Result: ??

California CAL at Mississippi OLE MISS
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 43.5 points.
Our Call: 23-20 for Cal.
Result: ??

Elon (FCS) at Wake Forest
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 45-14 for Wake Forest.
Result: ??

LSU Louisiana State U at Vanderbilt
The Tigers were favored over the Commodores by 19 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 45-17 for LSU.
Result: ??

Morgan State (FCS) at Army
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 42-7 for Army.
Result: ??

Coastal Carolina at Massachusetts UMASS
The Chanticleers were favored over the Minutemen by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 41-14 for Coastal Carolina.
Result: ??

Louisiana UL Lafayette ULL at Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Louisiana.
Result: ??

Central Connecticut State CCSU (FCS) at Eastern Michigan
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 56-7 for Eastern Michigan.
Result: ??

Troy at Akron
The Trojans were favored over the Zips by 16 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 45-17 for Troy.
Result: ??

Louisville at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Cardinals by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Florida State.
Result: ??

South Alabama at UAB Alabama Birmingham
The Blazers were favored over the Jaguars by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for UAB.
Result: ??

Temple at Buffalo
The Owls were favored over the Bulls by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for Temple.
Result: ??

UCF Central Florida at Pittsburgh PITT
The Knights were favored over the Panthers by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for UCF.
Result: ??

Washington at BYU Brigham Young University
The Huskies were favored over the Cougars by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Washington.
Result: ??

Wyoming at Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane were favored over the Cowboys by 4 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Wyoming.
Result: ??

Miami of Ohio at Ohio State
The Buckeyes were favored over the RedHawks by 37 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 51-7 for Ohio State.
Result: ??

SMU Southern Methodist University at TCU Texas Christian University
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Mustangs by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: ?? for ??.
Result: ??

Bowling Green at Kent State
The Golden Flashes were favored over the Falcons by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 30-21 for Kent State.
Result: ??

Appalachian State at North Carolina
The Tar Heels were favored over the Mountaineers by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for North Carolina.
Result: ??

Auburn at Texas A&M
The Aggies were favored over the Tigers by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Auburn.
Result: ??

Kentucky at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Wildcats by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Mississippi State.
Result: ??

South Carolina at Missouri
The Tigers were favored over the Gamecocks by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Missouri.
Result: ??

Central Michigan at  Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes were favored over the Chippewas by 29 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 44-13 for Miami of Florida.
Result: ??

West Virginia at Kansas
The Mountaineers were favored over the Jayhawks by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Kansas.
Result: ??

New Mexico State at New Mexico
The Lobos were favored over the Aggies by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69.5 points.
Our Call: 35-28 for New Mexico.
Result: ??

William & Mary (FCS) at East Carolina
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 30-23 for East Carolina.
Result: ??

Hampton (FCS) at Liberty
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 48-14 for Liberty.
Result: ??

Wagner (FCS at Florida Atlantic University FAU
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 48-7 for FAU.
Result: ??

Ball State at North Carolina State NC STATE
The Wolfpack were favored over the Cardinals by 19 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for NC State.
Result: ??

Oregon at Stanford
The Ducks were favored over the Cardinal by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Oregon. UCF was a watershed game for Stanford football and Shaw's outdated systems. As a Stanford Law School alumnus we are pro Stanford but skeptical about Cardinal fortunes this football season. Tom FitzGerald says it correctly when he writes: "Some Stanford fans would love to see Shaw open up the offense and shed his conservative, run-first approach". We think that Stanford can beat good teams similar to themselves, i.e. teams having an excellent defense and a less strong offense (e.g. Northwestern). However, the Cardinal  offense is not good enough to beat good offensive teams because the current defense can not supplant offensive firepower deficit. Stanford's offense is like offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard's baseball cap - as outdated "grunge". It is time to move Cardinal football into the ranks of pigskin modernity, just like Stanford academics and other Cardinal athletic programs. Stanford is no place for yesteryear academics ... or nostalgic football.
Result: ??

Baylor at Rice
The Bears were favored over the Owls by 28 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Baylor.
Result: ??

Old Dominion at Virginia
The Cavaliers were favored over the Monarchs by 29 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 45-13 for Virginia.
Result: ??

Southern Illinois (FCS) at Arkansas State
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 38-17 for Arkansas State.
Result: ??

Georgia State at Texas State
The Panthers were favored over the Bobcats by 1 point.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 33-30 for Texas State.
Result: ??

Charlotte at Clemson
The Tigers were favored over the 49ers by 42 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66 points.
Our Call: 51-13 for Clemson.
Result: ??

UTSA Texas San Antonio at North Texas
The Mean Green were favored over the Roadrunners by 18.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 45-13 for North Texas.
Result: ??

San Jose State at Arkansas
The Razorbacks were favored over the Spartans by 18 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Arkansas.
Result: ??

Oklahoma State at Texas
The Longhorns were favored over the Cowboys by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 70.5 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for Texas.
Result: ??

Nevada at UTEP Texas El Paso
The Wolf Pack were favored over the Miners by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Nevada.
Result: ??

Nebraska at Illinois
The Cornhuskers were favored over the Illini by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Nebraska. As an NU alumnus we are of course biased in favor of Husker football. However, the Big Red is still a long way from 1997.
Result: ??

Notre Dame at Georgia
The Dawgs were favored over the Fighting Irish by 12.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 38-24 for Georgia.
Result: ??

Colorado at Arizona State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Buffaloes by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Arizona State.
Result: ??

Sacramento State (FCS) at Fresno State
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 38-14 for Fresno State.
Result: ??

Toledo at Colorado State
The Rockets were favored over the Rams by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 71 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for Toledo.
Result: ??

Utah State at San Diego State
The Aggies were favored over the Aztecs by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 30-21 for Utah State.
Result: ??

UCLA University of California at Los Angeles at Washington State
The Cougars were favored over the Bruins by 19 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 44-17 for Washington State.
Result: ??

Central Arkansas (FCS) at Hawaii
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: 37-30 for Hawai'i.
Result: ??