College Football Predictions for Week 6 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Predictions for Week 6 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

Make sure you view our new FBS rankings after Week 5 play.

We finished Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
41-14 in calling the winner
28-26-1 against the spread, and
30-24-1 against the over/under.

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 5 is:
277-61 in calling the winner
165-164-9 against the spread
163-169-6 against the over/under ("total").

If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our abbreviation "ypp" in our prognostications means "yards per play" and not "yards per point" as at Phil Steele --- hey, we have his preview magazine -- this is no ad for Phil Steele, just a fact.

Our predictions look to yards per play stats (cfbstats.com) on both offense and defense, schedule difficulty (Massey Ratings) with an eye thrown at the unbiased Colley Matrix, and home field advantage (calculated either via Kambour (Kambour HFA), or as a standard of 3 points, it just depends). We also cast a glance at the College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT"). Of course, our own new FBS rankings as of "after Week 5" are a major factor in our prognostications for Week 6.
 
Below is a "sample" calculation from one of our prognostications for Week 6 where we stick fairly strictly to "our system". That is not, however, always the case, as subjective elements can also play a significant role.

Utah State at LSU
The Tigers were favored over the Aggies by 25 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 49-23 for LSU. We rank LSU 7th at an adjusted ypp AYPP (adjusted for schedule difficulty) of +2.08 and we rank Utah State 33rd with an adjusted ypp AYPP of -0.22 for a difference of 21 ranking and also scoreboard points. Kambour gives LSU a home field advantage of 4.8975 points, so that we would ordinarily go with 25 points, but that is also the opening line for this game, and we try to compete with that, so should we go 1 above or 1 below that figure? Our normal call would be 49-24. The unadjusted ypp stats on offense and defense are 7.99 and 4.71 for LSU and 6.48 and 4.63 for Utah State, giving unadjusted ypp totals of 12.70 and 11.11 = 23.81. A total of 22.00 is statistically "normal" for an average game score result of ca. 38-17= 55 points for all games, so that we prognosticate 18 more points than 55 based on 23.81 minus 22.00 = 1.81 x 10 = 18, i.e. 73 points total 55+18 = 73.
Result: ??.



Thursday, September 26, 2019
We compete against the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Georgia Southern at South Alabama
The Eagles were favored over the Jaguars by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Georgia Southern.
Result: ??.

Temple at East Carolina
The Owls were favored over the Pirates by 13 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for Temple.
Result: ??.

Friday, September 27, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

UCF at Cincinnati
The Knights were favored over the Bearcats by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 41-31 for UCF.
Result: ??.

New Mexico at San Jose State
The Spartans were favored over the Lobos by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69 points.
Our Call: 37-27 for San Jose State.
Result: ??.

Saturday, September 28, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
The Cowboys were favored over the Red Raiders by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 68 points.
Our Call: 40-27 for Oklahoma State.
Result: ??.

Maryland at Rutgers
The Terrapins were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Maryland. Nunzio Campanile will be the interim head coach for Rutgers as the Chris Ash era ends.
Result: ??.

Kent State at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Golden Flashes by 37 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 44-0 for Wisconsin.
Result: ??.

Iowa at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Hawkeyes by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47 points.
Our Call: 31-21 for Michigan.
Result: ??.

Purdue at Penn State
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Boilermakers by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 47-17 for Penn State.
Result: ??.

Oklahoma at Kansas
The Sooners were favored over the Jayhawks by 35 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 53-17 for Oklahoma.
Result: ??.

Utah State at LSU
The Tigers were favored over the Aggies by 25 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 49-23 for LSU. We rank LSU 7th at an adjusted ypp AYPP (adjusted for schedule difficulty) of +2.08 and we rank Utah State 33rd with an adjusted ypp AYPP of -0.22 for a difference of 21 ranking and also scoreboard points. Kambour gives LSU a home field advantage of 4.8975 points, so that we would ordinarily go with 25 points, but that is also opening line for this game, and we try to compete with that and not equalize it, so should we go 1 above or 1 below that figure? Our normal call would be 49-24. The unadjusted ypp stats on offense and defense are 7.99 and 4.71 for LSU and 6.48 and 4.63 for Utah State, giving totals of 12.70 and 11.11 = 23.81. A total of 22.00 is statistically "normal" for an average game score result of ca. 38-17= 55 points for all games, so that we prognosticate 18 more points than 55 based on 23.81 minus 22.00 = 1.81 x 10 = 18, i.e. 73 points total 55+18 = 73.
Result: ??.

Tulane at Army
The Green Wave were favored over the Black Knights by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45.5 points.
Our Call: 28-24 for Tulane. Under head coach Willie Fritz (since 2016), Tulane football  has seen a resurgence, losing this season thus far only to Auburn, 24-6 and beating Houston 38-31 in its last outing. Army has lost only at Michigan 24-21 (in two overtimes).
Result: ??.

TCU at Iowa State
The Cyclones were favored over the Horned Frogs by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 23-20 for Iowa State.
Result: ??.

South Florida at Connecticut
The Bulls were favored over the Bearcats by 15.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 30-20 for South Florida.
Result: ??.

Boston College at Louisville
The Cardinals were favored over the Eagles by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Louisville.
Result: ??.

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
The Eagles were favored over the Chippewas by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Eastern Michigan.
Result: ??.

Marshall at Middle Tennessee
The Thundering Herd were favored over the Blue Raiders by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 34-30 for Middle Tennessee.
Result: ??.

Illinois at Minnesota
The Golden Gophers were favored over the Fighting Illini by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55.5 points.
Our Call: 38-17 for Minnesota.
Result: ??.

Bowling Green at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Falcons by 44.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61.5 points.
Our Call: 49-7 for Notre Dame.
Result: ??.

Ohio at Buffalo
The Bobcats were favored over the Bulls by 4 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Buffalo.
Result: ??.

Texas at West Virginia
The Longhorns were favored over the Mountaineers by 11 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Texas.
Result: ??.

Western Michigan at Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Broncos by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69.5 points.
Our Call: 37-30 for Toledo.
Result: ??.

Virginia Tech at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes were favored over the Hokies by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Miami of Florida.
Result: ??.

Baylor at Kansas State
The Wildcats were favored over the Bears by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Baylor.
Result: ??.

Ball State at Northern Illinois
The Huskies were favored over the Cardinals by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55.5 points.
Our Call: 33-24 for Northern Illinois.
Result: ??.

Arkansas State at Georgia State
The Red Wolves were favored over the Panthers by 5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67 points.
Our Call: 45-24 for Arkansas State.
Result: ??.

Auburn at Florida
The Tigers were favored over the Gators by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Auburn.
Result: ??.

Air Force at Navy
The Falcons were favored over the Midshipmen by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 44 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for Air Force.
Result: ??.

Memphis at Louisiana Monroe
The Tigers were favored over the Warhawks by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 40-23 for Memphis.
Result: ??.

Northwestern at Nebraska
The Cornhuskers were favored over the Wildcats by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Nebraska. As an NU alum, we hope the Huskers start playing up to their potential. The Big Red has 14 turnovers already this season. The ball is the most important thing on the field. You can't win if you give the ball away. It is the FOOTBALL that must cross the line in the end zone, not the player. That tells us where the FOCUS of the game must be ... on the ball.
  Result: ??.

Troy at Missouri
The Tigers were favored over the Trojans by 26 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-14 for Missouri.
Result: ??.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech
The Tar Heels were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for North Carolina.
Result: ??.

Arizona at Colorado
The Buffaloes were favored over the Wildcats by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for Colorado.
Result: ??.

Western Kentucky at Old Dominion
The Hilltoppers and Monarchs were seen as even.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 24-20 for Western Kentucky.
Result: ??.

Massachusetts at Florida International FIU
The Golden Panthers were favored over the Minutemen by 25 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 65 points.
Our Call: 41-27 for Florida International.
Result: ??.

Rice at UAB
The Blazers were favored over the Owls by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 44.5 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Rice.
Result: ??.

Georgia at Tennessee
The Dawgs were favored over the Vols by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 52-7 for Georgia.
Result: ??.

Michigan State at Ohio State
The Buckeyes were favored over the Spartans by 17 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 35-17 for Ohio State.
Result: ??.

Tulsa at SMU
The Mustangs were favored over the Golden Hurricane by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for SMU.
Result: ??.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi
The Rebels were favored over the Commodores by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 36-24 for Ole Miss.
Result: ??.

California at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Bears by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Oregon.
Result: ??.

Liberty at New Mexico State
The Flames were favored over the Aggies by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for Liberty.
Result: ??.

UTSA Texas San Antonio at UTEP Texas El Paso
The Roadrunners were favored over the Miners by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for UTEP.
Result: ??.

Pittsburgh at Duke
The Blue Devils were favored over the Panthers by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Pittsburgh.
Result: ??.

Oregon State at UCLA University of California Los Angeles
The Bruins were favored over the Beavers by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 68 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for UCLA.
Result: ??.

San Diego State at Colorado State
The Aztecs were favored over the Rams by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Colorado State.
Result: ??.

Washington at Stanford
The Huskies were favored over the Cardinal by 13 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Washington. As a Stanford Law School alum we dislike calling this game against the Cardinal, but Stanford this season has weak stats.
Result: ??.

Boise State at UNLV University of Nevada Las Vegas
The Broncos were favored over the Rebels by 20 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Boise State.
Result: ??.